Who wants a Mets-Mariners blockbuster?
How badly do the Mets and their much-maligned owners and their brand new GM really want a title shot in 2019?
How badly do they want to build an affordable core that can promise contention into the future?
These two goals may be directly opposed. Which will win out?
Mets fans, which do you want to win out?
The Seattle Mariners have provided Brodie Van Wagenen with exactly the sort of opportunity I often chastised Sandy Alderson for not pouncing on. The opportunity has arrived to shop at a fire sale. Surely the Mariners will have plenty of buyers dropping by for a look, but the rumor mill currently has the Mets leading the charge to mine Seattle for valuables in exchange for taking on Robinson Cano’s contract.
The Mets and Mariners have an enormous number of potential matches:
If the Mets want to win in 2019, they’d be wise to upgrade at center field, catcher, shortstop, another infield position, and closer. The Mariners have good but expensive players at second and short, and players in their primes at center and closer.
If the Mariners want to launch a rebuild, they’d be wise to acquire a bunch of talented first- or second-year players, as well as minor leaguers on the cusp of bursting onto the MLB scene. The Mets have several intriguing prospects at various positions in the upper levels of their system, as well as some very young talent on the major league roster.
What would happen if the Mets swapped Amed Rosario, Peter Alonso, Andres Gimenez and Justin Dunn for Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and Mallex Smith?
Would the Mets win 90 games in 2019 but then feature $45M in dead weight in 2022, with no good young players on the roster?
And if so… would that be worth it?
How much would this trade help the Mets?
Segura, Cano, and Diaz each project to be worth about 2 wins above the players they’d be replacing on the Mets. Add another win or so for Smith. If the current Mets are an 83-win team, they would jump to a 90-win team with a single trade. That’s hard to do.
How much would this trade help the Mariners?
The Mariners would get two middle infielders, one slugging first baseman, and one hard-throwing pitcher. Rosario and Alonso are ready for the big leagues, with Dunn not far behind, and Gimenez an extra year away. They won’t all be good players, but maybe more than one pans out, and maybe there’s a star in there somewhere. This is exactly what a rebuilding team needs.
How much would this trade hurt the Mets?
I don’t think the Mets would miss the talent they’d give up. Dunn struggles with command, lacks a great build, and is viewed by some as a future reliever. Rosario’s hitting fundamentals are woeful, and he’s been surprisingly ineffective in the field for someone with such athletic grace. Gimenez looks to be good at everything, but maybe not good enough at hitting to be a real asset. Alonso will hit homers, but also be a whiff-prone first baseman, offering an eminently replaceable skill set.
The real cost I see is money. Even if the players the Mets lose will be barely average, they’ll be barely average for the minimum salary, allowing the Mets to spend elsewhere. As for the players the Mets get back, Segura will rapidly go from underpaid to overpaid as his range and offense decline with age, while Cano is already overpaid and may claim the crown for most overpaid by the time his contract ends.
How much would this trade hurt the Mariners?
Mallex Smith is young, cheap, and exciting, with room to grow. He’s exactly the sort of player a rebuilding team should keep (unless they’re planning a very long rebuild). Edwin Diaz is the type of dominant reliever that a contender might overpay for at the trade deadline, bringing back great prospects without moving Smith and Segura at the same time. Also, maybe the Mariners see the same limitations in the Mets’ players that I do.
What’s the verdict?
I would make this trade. It’s hard to put too high a price on getting exactly what you need to compete. Yes, this will ruin any chance of the Mets competing as a mid-payroll team, but I don’t see that happening anyway. Their prospects and young players just aren’t elite enough to do what Cleveland did. Now is a time for the Mets to make bold moves, crack open the wallets, and start winning. The Wilpons can plan to recoup those payroll costs in the form of ticket sales and playoff games.
And yes, to win in 2022 they’ll have to spend even more… and a business model of escalating costs can’t be sustained forever… but no MLB team stays great forever. Give me a solid boom before the next bust, and I’ll be happy.
Instead, the Mets appear poised to acquire a small amount of present talent for future talent and a small amount of money.
Basically, the Mets save $93M over 5 years (relative to earlier proposals, like the one here) but don’t upgrade at CF or SS, and they also lose their highest-upside prospect.
If the Mariners insisted on Kelenic, well, that is what it is. I would have preferred to keep him, because although he’s less of a sure major leaguer than Alonso, he has a much greater chance to be a star. But if the Mets found the right deal to move their biggest chip, I have no problem with that.
Is this that deal, though? Is it wise to trade the Mets’ biggest chip for a reliever and a 36-year-old infielder?
I don’t know if Mallex Smith was ever actually available, but man, he could have really helped the Mets…
I like the Cano part, where the Mets take on $67M to get a better player.
I hate the Diaz part. The Mets need multiple relievers, and the FA market is full of them. Kelenic + Dunn is way too high a price to pay for just one of them.
Those guys were the Mets’ best chance to participate in a trade for a star like Bryant or Arenado. I don’t know what star will be available, but whoever it is, now we know the Mets are out of the running. (Unless they deal Syndergaard. But it would have been nice to keep him.)