Would Mets Bid for Albert Pujols?
According to the St. Louis Dispatch, the Cardinals have begun discussing a contract extension with Albert Pujols. Per most reports, Pujols wants to get something done before spring training begins, and if nothing gets done before ST, he prefers not to talk contract at all until after the 2011 season — when he has the opportunity to become a free agent.
Though it appears that the Cards and Pujols will indeed get something done before Valentine’s Day, one never knows — as of this moment, his contract ends at the conclusion of the ’11 season. And if Albert Pujols became a free agent, would the Mets be in the bidding?
Considering Pujols’ status as The Best Player in Baseball, his price tag would be high. Very high. So high, in fact, that only a small handful of teams could afford it. The Yankees and Red Sox come to mind immediately, of course. But both of those teams already have outstanding first basemen with long-term contracts in place (we’re assuming that the Bosox and Adrian Gonzalez have a gentlemen’s agreement in place for an extension). The Phillies suddenly are big spenders, but they have Ryan Howard entrenched at first. The next “big market” clubs would be the Dodgers and Cubs, I suppose. The Nats, no doubt, would be in play. And the Mets, of course. Remember, no matter what Sandy Alderson says publicly, they DO play in the media capital of the world, so by default they’d have to at least consider the possibility of making a bid.
And why wouldn’t they? There will be some $40M – $60M coming off the books after 2011. Sandy Alderson insists the team won’t spend it all, and won’t lock into any long-term deals, but this isn’t Jayson Werth or Adrian Beltre — this is Albert Pujols. It would seem that a team losing Carlos Beltran and likely Jose Reyes would be in the market to make up that production — rebuilding or not — and they could make up for both players by signing one, if that player is Pujols.
I know at least one of you is going to want to mention Ike Davis in the comments. Please try to refrain from doing so, as I can’t afford to break my neck after falling off my chair in laughter. Don’t get me wrong — I like Ike — but I wouldn’t pass on an opportunity to obtain the most productive offensive player in MLB because of Ike. Rather, I’d look at Ike as a surplus trading chip who can be flipped to fill a whole elsewhere on the field (or mound).
Let’s get something else straight: I can’t stand Albert Pujols. I might hate him, even. Having him put on a Mets uniform would be similar — to me — to the day Tom Glavine signed with the Mets, and the day the Roberto Alomar trade was announced. It would feel all wrong. It would genuinely anger me. My heart would not be into it; but my mind would understand why it made sense.
Likely, Pujols will command a contract that calls for $25M-$30M per season, and he’ll probably want — and get — at least a 6- to 7-year deal (maybe more). He’ll be 32 years old when the 2012 season begins, and if you believe he is, and will remain, 100% clean, there is a strong possibility that his skills will deteriorate as he nears and passes his mid-30s. Considering that Pujols has hit 40+ HRs and posted an OPS over 1.000 in each of the past two years suggests that even with a dropoff in production, he’d still be better than most — it’s reasonable to suspect he’d drop to “only” 30 HR and an .875-.925 OPS, which is about where David Wright performed in 2008. Though, there is also the possibility that his skills erode dramatically, the way they did for Robin Ventura at age 32.
It’s probably a complete fantasy, but if it turns out that Albert Pujols is a free agent next winter, could you see the Mets getting into the bidding? Would you want them to sign him? Or would you be fine with the Nationals swooping in and making the biggest splash in their short history? Why or why not?
Granted, there is a difference between pitchers and position players, but look what has happened to Johan, and he is only in year four of a seven year deal.
As for Ventura, his problems weren’t that his skills eroded, more that his body broke down. After his career ended, he had to have that bad ankle fused.
I live in Stl now and nothing would please me more than to stick it in the craw of “the past fans in baseball” by stealing their golden boy. Not only that, but as much as I like Ike, I realize he isn’t likely a centerpiece player unless he’s the centerpiece of a trade that brings in a starting pitcher about to make a ton of money. Pujols has not been his usual self but that doesn’t mean he won’t be the best hitter in baseball with a good glove the next five years. Only an idiot would not take this chance.
I hear St. Louis is a “baseball town” so hope you enjoy the new digs. Don’t let the swarming red shirts brainwash you during this vulnerable time with the orange and blue.
Anyway I clearly meant to say “the best fans in baseball” and I clearly was being sarcastic. Yes, pretty much everyone here is a baseball fan and knows a surprising amount about the Cardinals, but walking around with my Mets merch I get more strange looks than I did while in Philly. To them it is not a question of who your team is, but why it isn’t our beloved Cardinals. If 2006 had not happened I don’t think I would care much. Most found that as payback for 2000.
Pitching wins, but spending for it generally doesn’t — particularly in the free agent market, where most free agents are on the wrong side of 30.
is “in the ballpark” I think he would stay. However, if Tony L.
leaves one wonders if that would factor in Albert’s decision to stay or leave.
Giving him a long-term contract is the problem, not Ike Davis.
Using Joe’s example, let’s say that Pujols drops off to 2008 David Wright levels. Would David Wright have been worth $25M+ in 2008?
That said – I don’t think they need to get into a bidding war in order to justify their existence. They could, at the very least, make an OFFER that they believe to be fair.
@mooshinator, you’d be paying pujols in 2015+ dollars, which means you need to adjust wright’s 2008 numbers for that period. i suspect that the $/win would justify 5-6M/w but I am always a leery of the dollar allocation statistics, if only because of the downward pressures on salary during a player’s rookie lockup seasons.
If anything, that seems to be worse than a traditional Yankees v. BoSox bidding war. When real competitors are bidding on the same contract, at least you know the contract will be worth something, even if you end up overpaying to come out on top. The Mets’ MO the past several seasons seems to be engaging in bidding wars against themselves.
It seems as though bidding on the yankee/red sox acquisitions makes sense. Maybe some of the super star free agents would want to play here. In the past 20 years, I can only recall the mets signing the following hyped free agents: Bobby Bonilla, Mike Piazza and Carlos Beltran. They traded & extended Santana.
And by the way…I hate him too. But when he put the Mets uniform on, I’d find a way to overcome my prejudice.
Anyway, Cot’s says Pujols’ no-trade is “limited”. If the Cards can’t reach a deal with him, then somebody else will probably trade and extend. The Mets would never be able to scrape together a package good enough to do that . . .
i think mets front office (in the past) did not understand that history does not mean future…so if someone hit 30 homers 3 years ago it doesn’t mean they will next year…obviously they had no idea how to forecast. For some reason you knew Omar didn’t know anything about math. Just last year he was bragging about addition by subtraction???
hopefully this front office wont make the same mistake.
To be fair to Omar, the “addition by subtraction” was a direct quote from Jeff Wilpon.
I don’t think this front office will make the mistake of paying for past success. But will they make the mistake of NOT paying for future success? We’ll see.
On another note, but related to his arm strength, the Mets might also consider using Ike out of the bullpen as their LOOGY. Unlikely, but more likely of happening than the Mets getting Pujols next winter.