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July 24, 2012 Shea What? Joe Janish

Crystal Ball Exercise

Pretend you have a crystal ball, and it can read three months into the future. It tells you that if the Mets trade Daniel Murphy, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis to the Phillies for Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, and Shane Victorino, the Mets will win the 2012 World Series. If the deal isn’t made, the Mets will finish last in the NL East. Because the crystal ball only can see three months ahead, it can’t tell you whether the Mets re-sign Hamels and/or Victorino in the upcoming winter.

Again, this is an exercise. Such a deal would never happen in a million years. Don’t argue that such a trade wouldn’t result in a World Championship, and don’t argue that the trade doesn’t make sense for one reason or another — just play along, OK?

I’m curious to hear your thoughts. Would you mortgage the future for a World Series win? Would you want the Mets to win with three ex-Phillies on the field? Would you prefer to see if the homegrown talent can result in success at some point in the future?

Vote below and post your reaction in the comments.

Would you make that deal?

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Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. Andrew July 24, 2012 at 10:54 am
    OF COURSE you make the deal if you somehow knew it guaranteed a championship. That’s the whole point of this thing!

    The problem, of course, is that it’s impossible to know.

  2. NormE July 24, 2012 at 10:55 am
    Utley, an outstanding talent and competitor, is now damaged goods. Victorino is a fine role-player but not a roster changer. Hamels is a good pitcher, but no one pitcher is good enough to drastically change the current Mets.
    I think you have to role the dice with Harvey and Wheeler for the future and hope that, in the not too distant time frame, some others may emerge from the farm.
    I am not averse to dealing Murphy or Nieuwenhuis, or just about anyone on the roster except Wright, Tejada and Dickey. Having said that, I’d be willing to listen to trades for even those three if some team wanted to bowl me over.
  3. murph July 24, 2012 at 11:01 am
    The team we have all chosen to root for has won 2 World Series in their 50 existence. So if we are (hypothetically) guaranteed another, why wouldn’t you make that (hypothetical) deal?
  4. Ceetar July 24, 2012 at 11:08 am
    Absolutely. It’s still an absolute longshot that Harvey and Wheeler COMBINED will be as valuable as Hamels likely will be for the next bunch of years. And while there’s no guarantee of signing him, the revenue created by a WS run will provide a higher payroll next year for the Mets to sign someone.

    Right now the Mets can’t find one outfielder, so Victorino is a no-brainer. Again, even if you don’t sign him you have the flexibility to get others and youv’e got den Dekker and Duda still.

    Murphy is a nice player, but he’s always the puzzle piece you have to turn 8 times to try to fit it into the spot.

  5. T-diesel July 24, 2012 at 6:14 pm
    No never would I make this pact with Satan. I hate the phillies enough that I dont want to ever see Utley, Victorino, and Hamels jumping up and down doing the awkward man hug celebration in Mets uniforms….
  6. Channels July 24, 2012 at 7:24 pm
    Nope. A championship should have at least a modicum of soul. This one wouldn’t.
  7. argonbunnies July 25, 2012 at 6:10 am
    I’m sitting on 22 years of frustration. 1 championship would feel mighty good. Maybe I could retire from fandom happy.

    Hamels seems like a douche, but I like the way Victorino plays, and Utley is probably my most respected opponent in the game.

    Winning with an entire team full of mercenaries would sour it, but 3 guys is no problem. Johan, Dickey, and Wright would all get rings, along with guys we’ve watched come up like Ike, Thole, Tejada, Parnell and Duda.

    So, Yes in a heartbeat. I’m not that high on any of the players we’d trade away anyway, except Wheeler.

  8. argonbunnies July 25, 2012 at 6:11 am
    Try this with Chipper and I’ll see how loudly I can type “No way!”
  9. Andy July 25, 2012 at 11:57 am
    You totally do this if you can really trust that crystal ball. Somehow I believe it is lying. Just adding those pieces would not make these 2012 Mets a world-beater.