Why MLB Shouldn’t Protect Mets Pick
According to various reports, the Mets are petitioning MLB to allow them to protect their 2013 first-round draft pick in the event they sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer — i.e., Michael Bourn or Kyle Lohse. However, there are strong reasons why MLB should stick to the rules.
First off, the rule is the rule is the rule. If MLB decides to make an exception in the very first year that the rule is adopted, well, what was the point of making the rule in the first place? Moreover, the Mets agreed to the rule when it was established.
But that’s not enough for most people. Because the Pirates failed to sign their 2012 first-round pick (a college junior named Mark Appel), they were awarded a 2013 first-rounder, and in the process pushed the Mets out of the top ten picks. The argument is that the Mets had the tenth-worst record in baseball, and had the Pirates signed Mark Appel, the Mets would be in that enviable class of teams who can sign top-tier free agents without giving up their first-round pick.
Dave Cameron makes the argument on Fangraphs thusly:
But, if the idea behind the compensation system was actually to promote competitive balance, then perhaps MLB should immunize the Mets from having to sacrifice their first round pick to sign Michael Bourn. Changing the rules in the middle of an off-season doesn’t seem fair, but the change would be narrow enough that no other team would be affected by the change, as the Mets were the only franchise pushed out of the top 10 by the Pirates failure to sign Appel. No other franchise could claim that the agreed upon rules had a material affect on whether or not their first round pick should be considered their “highest available selection”.
It’s a logical argument, but it’s not completely valid.
Yes, the compensation system is supposed to promote competitive balance. However, the system is fulfilling its intended goal by sticking to the “top ten picks” rule — it’s not failing by making the Mets’ pick subject to compensation. Further, another team (actually, several teams) WOULD be affected by the change — the Braves, who, if the Mets signed Bourn and kept their #11 pick, would get their compensatory pick one player later (as well as other teams that lost free agents who rejected qualifying offers). Picking one spot later may not seem like a big deal — unless you’re the team getting pushed back a spot.
But the main problem with the argument is that the rule specifically states that the “top ten picks” are protected — not that the “ten worst teams’ picks” are protected. It may sound like doublespeak, but it’s not. The rule was written this way deliberately — as Craig Calcaterra astutely points out:
The new CBA’s failure to address compensation picks kicking someone out of the top 10 in such a situation is not some mere oversight that inadvertently subverts the spirit of the rule and the intent to help out bad teams like the Mets. Rather, it was a very specific and conscious omission.
Indeed, the last CBA specifically protected top 15 picks from compensation and specifically exempted draft compensation picks — like the one the Pirates got for not signing Appel — from counting. The new CBA changes that to the top 10 picks and makes no mention of draft compensation picks. This is not merely a matter of “rules are rules.” It’s about the fact that MLB and the union actively removed protection for the Appel-pick situation. They saw it there in the last version, had someone highlight the text and hit “delete.” They knew exactly what they were doing.
Looking at this objectively, I can’t see how MLB can allow the Mets an exception to the rule, based on the argument that they had the tenth-worst record in baseball. Where I might believe they would have an argument is if the Pirates’ pick didn’t exist, and the Mets were tied with one or several teams with the tenth-worst record. For example, what if the Mariners (who were 75-87) finished with one more loss? And/or if the Padres (76-86) had two less wins? What if the Mets, Padres, and Mariners all finished with identical 74-88 records — tied for tenth-worst? Then what? Maybe the CBA already addresses that scenario, but if it doesn’t, how would the rule be applied?
I have one more point to make: if the Mets were dissatisfied with their being shut out of the “top ten picks” rule, why didn’t they start working on an appeal back in late October or early November — before free agency began? Had they been granted an exception back then, they could have been in play not only Bourn (and Kyle Lohse), but ALL of the free agents who received qualifying offers — including Josh Hamilton, Adam LaRoche, B.J. Upton, Rafael Soriano, Nick Swisher, David Ortiz, and Hiroki Kuroda. Heck, maybe the Mets could’ve signed a few of those players, knowing their #11 pick was protected. That is the point of the rule, after all — to allow “bad” teams the opportunity to sign good players to improve right away, without adversely affecting their future.
What’s your thought? Can you look at this situation objectively — rather than through the eyes of a Mets fan — and bring forth a strong argument for an exception? Make it known in the comments.
Why do I suddenly feel like Rickey Henderson?
As a Met fan, I would like this pick protected right now. as I would like to see them add Bourn at a reasonable rate (3 yrs max). However, the points you make are valid and I don’t see MLB caving. That said, I don’t like the way the rule is written, and think it should be amended. I don’t understand how a team that fails to sign its pick in one season is awarded a protected pick in the following season. I don’t even see how a team is awarded a “make-up” pick in the following season, which the Mets received for failing to sign their # 2 last year. I recommend two alterations – first if you fail to sign any pick, oh well, no make ups the next season or 2. if you fail to sign a pick, your make-up pick is one round after the pick you filed to sign, so no “protected” picks will ever be bumped. All that is left is to settle the ties that you refer to, if this is not already clear. Joe, please give Uncle Bud my recommendations the next time he calls.
The reason for the “make-up” pick is part of the overall process of driving down amateur signing bonuses and protecting teams who are unable to sign elite talent. Essentially what MLB is doing is forcing drafted amateurs to accept predetermined bonuses based on when they’re picked. The theory is that the system will prevent what happened in the past — where the very best amateur players would slip down in the draft to “rich” teams because “poor” teams couldn’t afford to sign them.
Again, in theory, it’s supposed to work like this: the Pirates have the chance to draft one of the top prospects in the country, Mark Appel. However, there’s a signability issue, because he’s only a junior and can return to college for his senior year. If the Pirates’ compensation for drafting and not signing him is a second-round pick in the 2013 draft (as you suggest), then drafting Appel becomes incredibly risky, and they might pass. Appel then might drop down to another team that is willing to deal with the penalties associated with signing him “over-slot” and exceeding their assigned bonus budget. However, with the new rules, the Pirates were more comfortable taking the risk of drafting Appel, knowing that if they failed to sign him, the worst that would happen would be getting their normal first-round pick in 2013 with the addition of a #9 pick. So, in theory, the Bucs could get another crack at Appel next year — or at least, someone nearly as good.
The new rules (and the draft itself) are absolutely against the spirit of capitalism, but this was the best Bud Selig could come up with to both drive down the bonuses and protect the small-market clubs.
Yes, I understand how the Pirates got that pick, and I understand the negotiation leverage based on the rules. IMHO, I think the “poor” teams are already protected by the total spending limits and the harsh penalties associated with overspending. The Pirates gambled on Appel knowing damn well who the agent was and what the demands were. And for this, the get 2 #1 picks the following year, including a protected pick, even though they finished above the Mets in 2012. And, Boras may be the embodiment of evil to the owners, but he is no dummy and knows these rules. If too many teams pass on his “overrated” prospects, the lower their value is in the current or subsequent drafts. So, fine, if the Buccos were playing by rules that would have burned that #8 pick if they didn;t sign Appel, the may well would have passed, as would others, and as Appel fell in the draft, his leverage would have dropped with him, since everyone is making their decisions baseed on total amount to spend, not so much the recommendation for the one slot. Yes, these new rules are socialist, but even socialist rules need to be logical, so I say screw the carryforward mulligans. Come on Uncle Bud, how about one more bone for your boy Freddy!
I think the modification of the previous rule is dumb, Mets or not. As a Met fan, I am hoping they get a waiver. If it was the Phillies, as you suggest I would be rooting against a waiver, but still think the rule is dumb.
Therefore, requesting MLB to clarify the rule does no harm at all and is needed bc obviously this situation is going to arise again. If MLB upholds the language as it is written, it will simply be an affirmation that the intent is to help suppress FA salaries, rather than as a competitive balance aide which is what it should be. All they need to do is keep the bottom ten teams protected *plus* whatever “do-over” picks occur for failing to sign a previous year’s pick.
But, with the way the rule is written, the Mets are screwed.
Absolutely, I would be thrilled. If a team is dumb enough to draft a guy it can’t sign, the pick should be lost. And if the agent is dumb enough to posture so much, and have his client drop in the draft as a result, great. Under these rules, both the player and the team will have a strong incentive to make a deal close to the slot, instead of arguing over relative chump change. Do you think that Alderson would have let that #2 pick walk last year over a few thousand $ if they did not get a compensatory pick this year? No way, even these multi-million dollar execs aren’t that inept.
In any event, it’s not “risk-free” for the Pirates. The development time for the value of their 2012 #8 draft slot is pushed back a year. Plus there’s risk that the 2013 draft won’t have the same quality of players as the draft pick they lost.
However, granting them an exception this year — or changing the rules — could come back to bite the Mets in the ass in the future.
Be careful what you wish for.
The MLB should not cave on this… Should the pick be protected? Absolutley. But change the rule now for future drafts. Make the rule the 10-worst teams (record wise) no matter what get there pick protected… Even if any team gets bumbed like the Mets are getting bumped.
Its a pretty easy fix.
LGM!
There’s a reason they drew up the rule the way they did.
Making an exception to the rule affects everyone, not just the Mets.
Regarding the “do-over” picks for draft picks that didn’t sign in the previous 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round if I’m not mistaken, that get inserted into next year’s draft, each one pushes every team behind it back by one pick… so it’s not something that just affects the Sandwich round. So I’m not sure why this is part of your narrative regarding the bumping out of protection of the Mets pick other than to say that an accommodation would need to be made for more than just one pick getting bumped from protection if more than one pick gets re-slotted into the draft’s top ten as a result of failing to sign a previous year’s “top 9” draft selection.
Previous year’s reverse standings are the tiebreaker. Worse records there get the higher picks.
Why not give teams that lose a free agent who was offered a qualifying offer a 1st round pick but don’t punish the team that signs him?
No, they should either wait till the next CBA or amend the rule for the Mets now.
not even close to true. That is the old way, under the new CBA, the braves get a sandwich pick no matter what.
Let me make it simple.
Imagine the Mets finish 60-102 in 2013 and have the 7th worst record. Now imagine that ALL 6 of the picks in the 2013 draft fail to be signed, the Mets would then get the 13th pick (6 ahead of them + 6 compensated picks + theirs) instead of the 7th pick, and it would not be protected.
The point of the draft is to encourage bad teams to get better by paying for free agents and giving them good prospects.
This is current situation is a mistake in the new CBA rules that needs to be fixed (as illustrated above why).
However, the common denominator in this is Scott Boras. He put both Appel and Bourne in the situations they now find themselves. For the good of baseball, MLB should refuse to budge on this. So, I agree with Joe.
I truly believe the thought of unsigned draft picks from the previous draft possibly affecting the order of the top 10 picks was not considered. If it was considered, I think language addressing it would have been included in the CBA. But since it wasn’t, and now that such a case has arisen, it needs be considered within the essence of the intent of the rule.
As for the argument that other teams would have an issue – the correlation isn’t there. There’s no complaint from the Mets that they are picking 11th as opposed to 10th. The argument is that the pick should be protected. It’s a simple and logical concept, that in a vacuum no team would oppose. However, given the fact that this is so late in the offseason and the change may have had an impact on other teams pursuit of free agents, MLB should not change the rule or make any exceptions for 2013 and rather revisit this issue immediately before the deadline for signing 2013 draft picks or immediately after the end of season.
This part though, is not necessarily true:
” that in a vacuum no team would oppose. ”
I disagree — I would bet that the teams who lost compensatory free agents and are picking in the sandwich round might oppose an additional protected pick.
Otherwise, your argument and proposal makes good sense. The bottom line is that the Mets should have made a stink back in October, after their won-loss record was finalized. The only reason it’s become an issue is because Bourn remains unsigned and Scott Boras is trying to create demand for his client, and the Mets suddenly think they might be able to get Bourn at a bargain price.
To your last point of “the change may have had an impact on other teams pursuit of free agents,” in what way would the change have that impact? I don’t see it.
And to say that no changes should be considered now, but it should be considered later would certainly be unfair to the Mets were the rule to be changed. If MLB doesn’t change the rule now, that in it of itself sets a precedent so that it shouldn’t be changed in the future without some sort of compensation given to teams previously screwed by the rule (so far only the Mets).
“I would bet that the teams who lost compensatory free agents and are picking in the sandwich round might oppose an additional protected pick.”
I would think every team picking between picks 1.12 and 2.09 would (short sightedly) oppose the change as every pick in that range is one spot later than it would have been if the Mets lost their 1.11 pick. The teams with a sandwich pick would have two picks bumped back a spot, so I can see them opposing it slightly more than other teams. Regardless, I don’t think that’s an issue unless MLB made an exception for this year only, but obviously that wouldn’t be the case.
To promote competitive balance is to protect the 1st round pick of the 10 teams with the worst records the previous season. That much is clear. Therefore, this rule is most definitely NOT achieving the spirit of what it was intended to do.
As for this happening the first year after the CBA, I also disagree with you there. If it was ever going to happen, it was probably sooner than later as the kinks are worked out.
If the Mets are granted an exception, that opens appeal for more exceptions. For example, under the current rules, if four teams all tie for the tenth-worst record, the team with the worst record from the year before gets the #10 pick. But, the other three teams could argue that because they also had the tenth-worst records, they should also have their picks protected. And if that’s granted, now the protected number of picks swells to 13 instead of 10.
In short, but making an exception, you’re opening up a pandora’s box.
Furthermore, the Pirates had their #8 pick protected the year before. The fact that they didn’t sign him does not entitle them to another protected pick. The ONLY thing that entitles a team to that dubious honor is finishing in the bottom 10, which the Pirates did not. Therefor, they are gaining an advantage for their own mistake, thus creating less incentive for teams to sign their picks since they know they’ll get another one the following year. Another way to look at it: what if the Pirates this year AGAIN fail to sign their first rounder, but then go on and win the World Series? Should they AGAIN be entitled to another 1st round pick next year?
This is where your entire argument falls apart and you admit you’re wrong.
As I’ve stated in a comment earlier, be careful what you wish for. If an exception is made or rule changed today, it could turn out to bite the Mets in the butt at some point in the future.
Regarding your second point, it’s not about what Mets fans are wishing for, it’s about doing what’s right. What is right, in this situation, is protecting the Mets’ 1st round pick (and unprotecting the Pirates’ for that matter). If, in some world, the Mets somehow in the future find themselves in the same exact situation the Braves are in and they get a 2nd round supplemental pick rather than a 1st round supplemental pick, then it will STILL be the right thing to do.
For what reason would the rules be written the way they are? Do you honestly believe that when this particular rule was written (in this CBA or any previous agreement), that the framers purposefully decided to screw the team with the 10th worst record?
I doubt it. Chances are, it was an oversight. You’re probably right about 2010, the Cubs weren’t courting a Type A. My guess is, if they were this would have been solved then (if they had a halfway decent GM). That didn’t happen though, so now it’s on Sandy to resolve.
Here’s another extrapolation that further demonstrates just how ridiculous this rule is. Imagine TWO top 10 teams this year failed to sign their 1st round picks. Or three of them. Four. Or, let’s take it all the way and imagine that ALL TEN teams fail to sign their 1st round picks this year. And imagine they ALL finish out of the bottom ten next year. Would we seriously suggest replacing the worst 10 teams next year with the worst 10 teams from THIS year???
That simply isn’t true. I think you will have a hard time finding people who actually agree with this rule. The main arguments you see are ‘a rule is a rule and it can never be changed’ and ‘they shouldn’t make an exception just for the mets, but they should change the rule for next off season.’ Neither of which are rational arguments.
It seems to me that the idea of protecting the pick of the ten worst teams was to allow them a method to get better quickly and become competitive again. They would be able to sign a premium free agent AND keep their high draft pick. It was meant to level the playing field.
But here’s the thing. Having the benefit of a high draft pick comes with a certain degree of responsibility — as a tradeoff. And that obligation is that the drafting club SIGN the player they picked. They must be willing to invest financially in the pick commensurate with his position in the draft. If they don’t pony up the money to sign the player, they shouldn’t be rewarded by getting another high pick the next year.
Now, I realize that sometimes a player won’t sign because he really just doesn’t want to play for the team that drafted him. But the reality is — in the VAST majority of cases — if the money is right, the player will sign, because the player risks a career-ending injury if he waits a year.
The Mets finished in the bottom ten in baseball. Period. That is not in dispute. And as far as other teams being affected by choosing one pick later, aren’t they already doing that because the Pirates got bumped into the top ten?
The Pirates WERE willing to invest financially in the pick commensurate with his position in the draft. In fact their offer was above and beyond the new regulations that every MLB club agreed upon.
Which is totally irrelevant to whether or not the teams with the ten worst records in 2012 receive protected picks in the draft.
Did you read the CBA, by the way?
–Hyperbolic generality.
“There is nothing fair, either, about the slotting system.”
–Hyperbolic generality.
“And, there is nothing fair about the compensation system.”
–Hyperbolic generality.
Your entire premise is meaningless as it lacks in substance.
BTW, I’m a Mets fan and even though I think their 11th pick should be protected (as should all future picks in the same circumstance), I don’t want it protected as I don’t want Bourn signed to a backloaded deal, which I think will be the case if the Mets sign him.
“I would bet that the teams who lost compensatory free agents and are picking in the sandwich round might oppose an additional protected pick.”
I would think every team picking between picks 1.12 and 2.09 would (short sightedly) oppose the change as every pick in that range is one spot later than it would have been if the Mets lost their 1.11 pick. The teams with a sandwich pick would have two picks bumped back a spot, so I can see them opposing it slightly more than other teams. Regardless, I don’t think that’s an issue unless MLB made an exception for this year only, but obviously that wouldn’t be the case.
the pirates shouldnt get another protected pick. they couldnt sign the pick they had and if anything they should get a non protected pick (if anything at all) for their failure to sign a pick they knew was going to have high demands.
Joe, you keep saying what if this, what if that. what if doesnt matter. the system is made to help teams get bettter by giving protected picks to teams that didnt do well last year, right? so why would it make any sense to let a team with a better record laast year push a team out of the portected picks because they couldnt sign the player they drafted.
this is obviously an oversight and needs to be fixed no matter what team it affects.
I’m not sure if I like the rule about teams who fail to sign draft picks getting to try again next year.
When push comes to shove, I’ll root for the rule I like to trump the rule I’m not sure I like. The Pirates should be picking 11th.
If the Pirates suck, and Appel says, “You can’t pay me enough to go to that awful team,” then it’s in the best interests of baseball to simply give Appel the finger and make him sign for reasons of competitive balance. (Or, if not literally force him, then give him an incentive so strong that it works the same way.)
If the Pirates are cheap, and try to lowball Appel, then they deserve to simply lose the pick. (Unless MLB is going to intervene and do what’s best for the franchise over the wishes of its owners. But if that were how it worked, Loria would be on a pike somewhere.)
If neither party is acting in bad faith, and Appel is undecided on signing in 2012, and the Pirates know this, and they decide to draft him anyway, and try to convince him to sign, and it just doesn’t work… Well, that’s fine, and I sympathize with both parties, but the Pirates’ failed gamble absolutely should not trump the interests of a team who never gambled in the first place (in this case, the Mets).
I’d say that it cannot be assumed that either party is acting in bad faith, and it’ll be very rare that it can be proven. So the default scenario is simply “failed gamble”. If you gamble and lose, I’m fine with there being actual loss involved. Like, next year you get pick #11.
I like your logic and summary and the bottom line. Even if the Mets don’t get to the point with Bourn to petition, MLB should make the change for next year.
As to the argument as a whole, I think the best point here is – Mets should have brought the issue up immediately after the season
What IS clear is that we disagree on the issue. That’s fine.
If you are unhappy with the responses, please feel free to move on to another Mets blog. There are well over a hundred to choose from, and there might be at least two or three others where the main writer actively engages with the visitors in the comments section.
Better yet, why not publish your own blog? I’d be happy to give you advice on how to get started.
The primary reason I wrote this post is because I felt it was worth discussing. Based on the number of comments, I’m comfortable that I’ve met the goal of writing a post that would spark conversation.
I don’t give a SH*T about clicks nor the amount of drive-bys who stop in and drop their two cents. This site always has, and always will be, about fostering a loyal group of people who enjoy discussing baseball as it pertains to the Mets.