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February 27, 2013 2013 Spring Training Joe Janish

Giancarlo Stanton To Mets?

Would the Marlins trade young superstar slugger Giancarlo Stanton to the Mets? Maybe the real question is, would the Mets trade for Giancarlo Stanton.

According to Michael Cardano of RotoExperts:

A source close to the SFX Baseball Group, an agency representing some of the biggest stars in the game, told me this morning that the Marlins have recently discussed a trade that would include sending recently signed Juan Pierre (an SFX client) and Giancarlo Stanton to the New York Mets, for super pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, obtained from the Giants in the Carlos Beltran trade, and minor league catcher Travis d’Arnaud …

Never mind that this rumor has yet to be corroborated by anyone. Never mind that the SFX “source” may be misinformed or have ulterior motives in “leaking” this information. And don’t get stuck on the Juan Pierre “can’t be traded because he was signed as a free agent” piece of the proposed trade (Cardano explains the technicality here).

Rather, just for a moment, pretend that such a trade offer is on the table.

Do you do it?

And no, you’re not allowed to change the deal so it’s Anthony Recker instead of d’Arnaud, nor switch in Collin McHugh for Wheeler. No substitutions. If you want to add something like, “only if Stanton signs a 5-year extension” or something similar, OK. But otherwise, imagine the deal stands as-is: Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud for Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Pierre.

Do you do it? Why or why not? Sound off in the comments …

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. Dan Capwell February 27, 2013 at 1:28 pm
    Yes I would do it. Wheeler and d’Araund are just that–prospects. They could be great but then again, they might not be. I saw Wheeler give up six hits and four runs to a mediocre AAA lineup last August, plus in a recent photo, his arms are in the dreaded “M” position, which is usually indicative of future injury woes.

    The Mets have made other moves for big sluggers, Rusty Staub in 1972 and Mike Piazza in 1997 and of course Gary Carter in 1985. They gave up a lot of good players in each deal (Singleton, Foli, Brooks, Preston Wilson) but in each case they got a player that helped them get to the World Series.

    Getting to (and winning) the World Series is the name of the game. Stanton could be a big piece of the puzzle.

  2. Gavin February 27, 2013 at 1:51 pm
    No, this is a dumb trade and it goes against everything Alderson has done this far. When Santana is gone this season, if this trade were true, all the rotation would have is Harvey, Gee, Neise. How is that building off pitching? Not to mention we would not have a catcher, yet again. Outfielders are much easier to come by than a good catcher and pitching. Only reason why the Giants traded Wheeler to the mets because they were planning on winning that year, in addition to them already having an abundance of starting pitching.
  3. Izzy February 27, 2013 at 1:55 pm
    Yes, I would do it because Sandy Alderson has proven to be a terrible judge of talent, and the HoFers he has brought in haven’t done anything in the big leagues, and the catcher has spent 5 years in the minors. No star player spends 5 years in the minors. Stanton is a star and is 23. fire the rotten GM if that is what is needed to bring excitement to the Mets. With the Yankees in turmoi, this is the time for the Mets to try to regain their fans. Not someday in the future when the Yankees have regrouped and all kids are Yankees fans in NY because no kid wants to grow rooting for a perrenial loser.
    • MikeT February 27, 2013 at 2:38 pm
      “No star player spends 5 years in the minors”

      That is patently false. Chase Utley is considered a star and he spent most of 4 seasons and parts of a 5th in the minors. He was not established until he was 26.

      Ryan Howard was effectively 6 seasons and established at 26 as well.

      I could keep searching but why bother? You already have formed your opinion on Alderson even if it is not based on any facts.

      Also, get over your inferiority complex regarding the Yankees. They really should be irrelevant to what the Mets do. Worrying about the Yankees is partly what got the Mets in thsi predicament. If the Mets win they will “own” NY, it really has nothing to do with the Yankees.

  4. MikeT February 27, 2013 at 2:21 pm
    I love Wheeler and think he can be better than Harvey and is as close to a sure bet as far as pitching prospects go. I love d’Arnaud and think that he can be our Posey, if not quite at that MVP level.

    Still, I make this trade immediately before the Marlins can hang up the phone and reconsider. Stanton is only 23, so he fits the Mets mold of young and controllable, and he is already top 5 or even better in all of MLB for outfielders. This guy is unbelievable.

  5. Sidd Finch February 27, 2013 at 2:38 pm
    At first blush, it’s a, “no way I would do this” deal. But as enamored we fans are with the “potential” of Wheeler and d’Arnaud, how will their talents translate on the big-league level?

    Stanton is a know commodity, arguably a top 10 ML’er at 25. The Mets have a lot of young and exciting arms in the lower levels as well as Syngaard from the Jays deal. Losing Wheeler would hurt but the potential to reload quickly is there. While power hitting OFers near MLB ready for the club are few and far between down on the farm.

    Also a lot of it would depend upon what you think of last year first rounder Kevin Plawecki. If you feel he could be a starting catcher by mid-2014 then the loss of d’Arnaud in a trade has less of a long-term impact behind the dish. Sure d’Araund could be the next Buster Posey or Joe Mauer but he could also wind up as another talented player who can’t seem stay in the line-up consistently due to injury.

    If this trade happened, it could be broken down like this:

    Beltran and Dickey for Giancarlo Stanton (Pierre is merely a throw-in).

    Trades of age and experience for youth and potential (d’Arnaud and Wheeler) now become two trades which netted one of the best players in game who at 25 is still reaching his potential. Additionally, since Beltran was as good as gone at the end of 2011 anyway, the only player you’ve really lost is Dickey. An elite talent like Stanton wouldn’t be a bad haul for Dickey, would it?

    Sure you had Wheeler and d’Araund but they were merely highly talented pieces who never impacted the Mets on the field in their ultimate acquisition of Stanton.

    Don’t get me wrong there are few players I’d trade Wheeler and/or d’Araund for but Stanton is definitely one of them, and the only one available.

    The Mets need to answer to the Braves acquisition of the Upton bros. Putting Stanton in the line-up between Wright and Davis, instantly transforms a milquetoast offense into a formidable one. It also raises the game of not only Wright and Davis, because neither could be pitched around, but also whoever bats 6th because there would be a lot more RBI and advantageous hitting opportunities as well.

    This trade would drastically improve the 2013 Mets while not hurting the 2014 Mets too badly. Harvey-Niese-Gee leading a rotation isn’t the best option but few teams would want to face a Wright-Stanton-Davis trifecta either. All of this would be contingent upon locking up Stanton long-term of course.

    One of the very few scenarios where I’d trade Wheeler and/or d’Araund. So my vote is yes, I would do it.

    • MikeT February 27, 2013 at 2:41 pm
      Point of order: Stanton is 23. I really really think this matters. He is younger than d’Arnaud and just a couple of months older than Wheeler!
      • Sidd Finch February 27, 2013 at 2:50 pm
        23, 25 no matter I still make the trade. That being said, his being 23 turns it from a no-brainer into an absolutely no-brainer…lol
  6. DaveSchneck February 27, 2013 at 3:27 pm
    Joe,
    Yes, instantly. Stanton at 23 is a monster talent, has done it at the MLB level, no ballpark can hold his power, and he instantly becomes the best player on the team. He is a top 5 player in all of MLB right now at 23 years old. You have to give to get, and those 2 top prospects will be the minimum price (no negative reflection on Wheeler or d’Arnaud). I am all for building a team around young, controllable pitching and strength up the middle, but that can still be the focus. This trade would not alter that path to the extent that it would derail it. Business-wise, a stud like this instantly increases revenue flows dramatically. SNY equity would be driven up instantly. Yes, they will have to pay him starting next year, but he is still controllable for 4 years and there is no reason a NY franchise can’t go long term with a guy like this.
  7. derek February 27, 2013 at 3:55 pm
    if we can have stanton for 5 yrs or more..then its def something to think about…

    if not dont bother….i think wheeler…has more upside then the d’arnoud

  8. Mike Kelm February 27, 2013 at 4:30 pm
    Probably not a good idea. We aren’t going to contend with or without Stanton this year- so it becomes about money.

    The key things are if you can come to some sort of agreement with Stanton on terms of a contract- otherwise he is likely to be a highly sought after commodity on the free agent market and might become a 1 and doner for the Mets. Even if you do sign him, you’re looking at probably $12-15M per year. Compare that to Wheeler and D’Arnaud, both of who likely won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2015 season at the earliest, meaning the Mets can pay them major league minimum for the next 3 years and use that money for something else. Better to hold off on the trade and try to pick him up midyear or after the season.

    The other reason this won’t happen is it means that Alderson would basically throw out his two signature moves as Mets GM (Beltran for Wheeler and Dickey for D’Arnaud). There’s ego there- if Wheeler and D’Arnaud weren’t good enough, why did you make the trades in the first place.

    I might be interested in seeing if the Marlins would part ways with Juan Pierre for something reasonable. At $1.6M per season he wouldn’t be overly expensive and would be a better leadoff hitter than Neuwenheis. It would probably mean moving Duda back to right to platoon with Cowgill, and Pierre has a pea shooter arm, but it would be a good fit for the Mets line up and provide some sort of sparkplug at the top of the order.

    • Sidd Finch February 27, 2013 at 5:33 pm
      Actually trading them for Stanton would mean they’re good enough because combined they brought in the power hitting corner OF the team desperately needs. It would further justify those trades. Let’s face it, in this scenario, Alderson wins either way. He either used those trades to net those two top prospects or we get Stanton. It’s plain and simple they would be a better team with Stanton, both short and long term, than with Wheeler and d’Araund.
  9. Dan B February 27, 2013 at 5:39 pm
    Not only is Stanton an all star and stud at the Met’s weakest position, he has a cool name. Well, now he has a cool name. Even if d’Arnaud turns into a quality hitter, I would prefer to build my lineup around an outfielder who plays every day. How Wheeler and d’Arnaud were obtained should be meaningless to the question. Tough call but I would do it. In this case, a bird in the hand would be worth more then two in the bush.
  10. Steven A February 27, 2013 at 5:43 pm
    I would do the proposed trade in a heart beat, even without a contract lock up. Given all the support on this board for such a deal, it seems likely that the deal is so lopsided in the mets favor that the marlins would not do it without something more put in, and the Staub for Foli, Singleton, Jorgensen. the equivalent would be Stanton for Wheeler, D’Arnaud, Tejada and MDD
  11. Paul February 27, 2013 at 11:13 pm
    Giancarlo Stanton is a 23-year-old established major league star. Wheeler and d’Arnaud are still prospects. It might not turn out to be a good move to give up a catcher and a pitcher for an outfielder, but I think we all fall in love with prospects too much for what they might be.

    I’d make the trade if it was on the table.

  12. argonbunnies February 28, 2013 at 12:33 am
    I think the best case scenario for the Mets is keeping Wheeler and d’Arnaud, then winning the bidding when Stanton becomes a free agent. I’m not sure if the Mets can afford to play either-or; to make it back to contention, they need in-their-prime stars and hot prospects.

    The only reason to do this deal is “Stanton is so good, if you have an opportunity to get him, you take it, in case you never get another one. After all, someone else could trade for him and give him a 10-year deal tomorrow.”

    So, that’s the question for me: is Stanton that good?

    He doesn’t have the speed and all-around game of all-time great outfielders. He’ll give back on D some of the runs he creates on O. He’s also no Albert Pujols with the bat. He strikes out a ton. Last year’s .290 avg may be the fluke, with the previous years’ .259 and .262 more the norm.

    Over the next several years, Stanton is probably the biggest HR threat in the game, and I’m sure he’ll draw plenty of walks as pitchers pitch around him. And that’s about it. So, is that the kind of talent that the Mets can acquire in the next few years without having to give up their best prospects? If so, pass. If not, well, then I guess you pretty much have to do this deal.

    Looking around at who might be available soon, I’m failing to come up with anyone who compares to “biggest HR threat in the game”. Anyone have any thoughts?

    • TexasGusCC February 28, 2013 at 2:07 am
      Argon, at first glance, it is a deal that must be done. But, let’s look at it. The lineup and rotation:

      2013 – Pierre, Murphy, Wright, Davis, Stanton (I agree, he’s a .265 hitter), Duda, Buck, Tejada. Santana, Harvey, Niese, Marcum, Gee = Playoff team.

      2014 – Leadoff Hitter (Gomez?), Murphy (if Flores is not ready), Wright, Davis, Stanton, Duda, Buck, Tejada. Harvey, Niese, Gee, ?, ?. Not a playoff team.
      or
      2014 – Leadoff hitter (Gomez?), Murphy, Wright, Davis, Flores, Duda, dArnaud, Tejada. Harvey, Niese, Wheeler, Gee, ?. Closer to a playoff team.

      At first glance, you have to jump at it, but after projecting it down the road, I have to admit that you are filling a big hole and creating a bigger hole in your rotation.

      So, it’s Stanton, Buck and an expensive pitcher or Flores, dArnaud and Wheeler? I think Plan B is better. I hate admitting that.

      Therefore, I agree with you.

      • Mikey A March 1, 2013 at 4:44 pm
        Which Gomez are you talking about? Carlos?
  13. Angelo February 28, 2013 at 2:26 am
    I would not make the trade right now. I would wait until after the 2013 season and then pusue Stanton. First, Miami does not plan on trading Stanton right now since he is pretty inexpensive this year. Next year, he will be arbitration eligble and will probably command a $8M-$10M contract. Miami will be more receptive to trading Stanton next off season then they are right now. By waiting for next offseason the Mets will allow their young stud pitchers, (Syndergard, Fulmer, etc) to continue to develope and dominate in single and double AA. They also will have Wilmer Flores developing at the AAA level. This is when I would think it would best for the Mets to approach Miami with a package deal to include Syndergard, Fulmer, Flores, and possibly Familia. Syndergard is a project as a future #1 or #2 starter. Flores has shown he can hit and handle a couple of infield positions and Fulmer is a rising star as well. If Familia can get his act together at the major league level this year then I think the Mets can put together a competitive package. Mind you, I would only offer this package to Miami if the Mets could sign Stanton to a long term deal. BTW, the Mets payroll next offseason will be around $33M. They will have plenty of money to offer Stanton for a long term deal.
    • Joe Janish February 28, 2013 at 9:41 am
      OK, but what if the Fish find someone else to whom they can deal Stanton before then?
      • Angelo March 1, 2013 at 2:20 am
        If the Fish are ready to make a deal for Stanton as we speak I would start off the conversation with the same package, Syndergard, Fulmer, Familia, and Flores. Wheeler and d’Arnaud are building blocks to the Mets future and should still be considered untouchable. As much as I would love to have Stanton in the lineup giving up Wheeler and d’Arnaud creates 2 holes while Stanton fills only 1…. I still believe the Fish will wait unitl the offseason to move Stanton but just in case Sandy should keep the lines of communication open. Possilby speed dial.
        • Joe Janish March 2, 2013 at 12:01 am
          Curious – how are the Mets going to fill those two holes if Wheeler and d’Arnaud don’t break north with the big club in April? And/or don’t make the club in 2014, for whatever reason?

          Is a Giancarlo in the hand worth two in the bushes?

  14. Peter March 1, 2013 at 3:12 pm
    This trade is a no brainer. You cannot “grow” 40 homer potential. The Mets have no less than 3 starting pitcher prospects on the way not including Harvey. (Fullmer, Robles, Montero, Syndenguard). They have Plawecki (can’t spell it) to replace d’Arnaud. Put Stanton 4th in this lineup or 5th and how much better do you think Wright and Davis will get? Add in Pierre as a table setter and this team contends immediately and has a real chance to be a top 5 team if Santana and Harvey give this team 30-35 quality starts. But if not, the team will be right there next year as well. The only reason I wouldn’t do it is if I feel that there is an outfielder out there that could be had next year that could cost less and be a 5th or 6th hitter.
  15. Mikey A March 1, 2013 at 4:43 pm
    Ugh I am so torn. If we could pull this off for D’Arnaud and Syndergaard maybe, but I’m sick of C being a revolving door for the Mets. I understand the Mets’ propensity for overvaluing prospects, but that’s more in regards to home-grown talent such as Gomez, Martinez, Milledge, etc, not industry-consensus top prospects. There’s no such thing as “can’t-miss” (or at least rare, setting aside the Harpers and Strasburg’s of the world), but I think it creates two holes and fills one. The Giants have shown you can win with young pitching and a patchwork lineup. And the Mets in a couple years should have a stellar rotation AND a solid lineup. So I think I just convinced myself to pass. But again, either way this shakes out I’m not going to be upset.
  16. Angelo March 2, 2013 at 6:36 pm
    First off, the Fish will not be trading Stanton this season. He is cheap and will probably have another monster year. Also, he will be the only reason for people in South Beach to come out and watch them play. Having said that, the Mets will probably be in the mix for when Stanton becomes available in the offseason. If they can pull of the trade as I mentioned before in my previous emails of Syndargard, Fulmer, Flores, Familia they will then have a very strong nucleus for a serious contender in 2014. Since they entire payroll will be reduced to around $33M next year, they will be able to offer Stanton a long term deal along with trying to acquire Jacoby Ellsbury(CF) and Shin So Choo (LF) to complete a very competitvie outfield. I know this will not be easy to pull off, but if they can to it the Mets may be able to field this lineup next year:

    1-Ellsbury (CF)
    2-Murphy (2B)
    3-Wright (3RD)
    4-Davis (1ST)
    5-Stanton (RF)
    6-Coo (LF)
    7-d’Arnaud (C)
    8-Tejada (SS)

    This lineup will be able to compete nightly with the Nationals, Phillies and Braves. Not to mention having a strong rotation as well

    1-Harvey
    3-Neise
    3-Wheeler
    4-Gee
    5-Free Agent pitcher (Place a name here)

    Plus their payroll for 2014 along with the above mentioned additons will still cost less than the team they have on the field this year!!

    BTW, they should probably trade Duda to the Rays in the offseason as a 1st baseman/DH and get another young arm from their strong farmsystem.

  17. Jack Kelly March 3, 2013 at 12:07 am
    I would love this trade because I love Stanton. I’m not the biggest marlins fan, so I would like him even more. Bringing Stanton and Pierre to the Mets gives the Mets an everyday outfield. Duda in left, Pierre in center, and Stanton in right. Stanton can bat cleanup or 5th. The Mets would have Wright batting 3rd, Davis the cleanup man, and Stanton 5th. The Marlins would want Stanton to leave Miami when his salary goes up. Marlins are fish and there’s a website called the fish pond. Lots of fish have been caught like Hanley caught by the dodgers, Infante and Sanchez cought by the tigers, and Reyes, Buehrle, and Johnson caught by the blue jays.
  18. The King March 4, 2013 at 1:40 am
    Prospects for young, proven, superstar talent? It’s called theft.
  19. Angelo March 4, 2013 at 2:20 am
    It happens every year. Johan Santana and Roy Halladay are perfect examples. It has been going on for decades… Any GM worth his salt can do it. How about Lee Mazzilli for 2 unproven prospects Ron Darling and Walt Terrell. Then Walt Terrell who established himself was traded the following year for another young prospect Howard Johnson. …. How do you think the Braves received an unpoven prospect in pitcher John Smoltz? Look it up, it happens all the time….. Theft, I think not, it’s just a good GM doing his homework.