More Durable: David Wright or Jose Reyes?
Remember when the Mets let Jose Reyes walk away for absolutely nothing, and inked David Wright to an historical contract extension?
At the time, the thinking was that Wright was more “the face of the Mets,” better fit the team’s offensive philosophy of homeruns and walks, and would prove to be more durable than Reyes over the long haul.
The first element is debatable; considering the team’s Flushing, Queens, location and associated extremely diverse local demographic, it could be argued that a Latino ballplayer would be as fitting a “face” as any. There’s no argument for the power/OBP — Wright wins that hands down. But what about durability?
For all the brouhaha regarding the supposed fragility of Reyes, guess who has played more ballgames over the past three seasons?
Give up? Here’s a surprising fact: the “oft-injured” Jose Reyes has played in 379 games from 2011-2013, while Wright has participated in 370. Reyes made 1721 plate appearances to Wright’s 1609 during that period, and scored 245 runs to Wright’s 214.
Guess who had more total bases in the past three years? Again, it’s Reyes, with 706 to Wright’s 673 — fairly significant considering Reyes played in only 9 more games. As expected, Wright beats Reyes in OBP and OPS, but not by much — .378 and .859 for Wright to Reyes’ .361 / .813. Reyes wins in batting average .306 to .292, as well as stolen bases (94 to 45), doubles (88 to 87), triples (28 to 9), and sacrifice flies (12 to 10); he also grounded into fewer double plays (21 to 31).
Granted, Wright obliterates Reyes in homeruns (53 to 28) and RBI (212 to 138), and also beats him in a number of advanced SABR metrics such as WAR. Additionally, Reyes has posted negative UZR fielding numbers, while Wright has been positive in two of the three years.
I’m not about to suggest that the Mets made a mistake in “choosing” Wright over Reyes for the long term — and there are still several years to judge the decision. But I find it interesting that recently, durability is not a significant difference between the two players.
Thoughts? Do you expect the durability trend to continue? Why or why not? Answer in the comments.
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The discussions over Reyes’ injuries takes away from the true failure of all the failed GMs in the Met front office. Their PR office gets another A+
And in terms of stats. Again it’s vastly different based on the sample time. 2011 was by far Wrights worst year and by far Reyes’ best. I don’t think that season is necessarily predictive going forward. Especially since it seems Wright has been a much different and better player (back to the guy he was at Shea) since the citi fences were adjusted
So I do think DWs injuries are concerning on some level and I do still wish both Jose and David were here. In terms of the data that was available at the time and in terms of the performance of the two players since if they could only keep one guy I think the Mets kept the right one. (And then there was the whole Madoff thing being unsettled that also impacted the Jose non-signing at the time but that’s another issue)
That’s not to say that the past three years are predictive — only that, if we are to try to make some kind of projection going forward, it makes more sense to base it on recent activity rather than older data / performance.
Reyes (2011-2013)
.337/.384./.493/.877
.287/.347/.433/.780
,296/353/.427/.780
Wright (2011-2013)
.254/.345/.427/.771
.306/.391/.492/.883
.307/.390/.514/.904
I am probably being way more wordy here than I need to be since I do agree with some of the points about the injury issues and durability seemed to be the main point of your post moreso than performance . But my main point was what we are seeing here is largely a function of putting a lot of weight on the 2011 season. And given that, I don’t find these results surprising…I already knew these things to be true before reading your article (no offense meant by that). And while I am somewhat worried about Wright’s injuries..I’m not at this point worried he is going to have another season like 2011 performance wise (unless maybe he foolishly tries to play through injury again)
The “face” of an organization is about character, and here it’s no contest. I saw Reyes pull himself from the lineup to ensure his batting crown; I saw Wright practically fight Collins to stay in a game even though he would’ve been beaned. These incidents struck me as emblematic, not aberrations. I’d take Reyes back in a heartbeat, but as to the “face” of the organization, I prefer guys like Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Santana, and yes, even resident nudist Harvey (he needs to polish his interviewing skills, though).
Wright’s durability is a concern, but his back injury was a freak thing, while his pulled hamstring is a common issue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him injury-free over the next few years. Reyes I view more as a high risk, and I question whether his primary asset, speed, is already compromised — zero triples in 2013. Wright, on the other hand, will return next year with his power and defense intact.
As much as I loved Beltran and Delgado as ballplayers, they absolutely, positively are/were “small market” players and not built for the media frenzy of NY. That’s not to say they couldn’t perform well in NY — just that, their personalities weren’t ideal for the spotlight of the media capital of the world.
And as for Santana … well, I’ve always had a problem with that “little” issue of date rape that was swept under the rug. It’s amazing to me that everyone forgets about Santana’s going outside of his marriage to rape/not rape a woman and father her child as a result, yet Wally Backman can never, ever, shake one night in which a woman broke his arm.
After the lawsuit had been settled, for a much lesser amount, Wright was signed to his deal. This was more sensible, as The Mets could actually budget for the lesser amount, that would need to be paid in the suit.
Thank you.
In other words, I don’t give a crap about the Wilpons’ legal / financial problems, because it’s a ridiculous excuse on so many levels. Did their real estate business fall apart as a result? Did all of their buildings fall down because of Madoff? Did MLB not have the power to change the situation? Maybe Bud Selig should have stepped in and forced a sale, much like he did with the Rangers, Expos, and Dodgers.
When I used the word “diverse,” I meant exactly that: a diverse group of several types of races — i.e., an area in which Caucasian people are the minority, therefore a ballplayer of any race would potentially identify with the local residents.
Alderson’s handling of Reyes was by far his worst moment of a rather undistinguished Met tenure. That said, it is premature to say he let him walk for absolutely nothing, as school is still out on Plawicki and Reynolds, the comp picks.
Durability is easy to define after the fact, but a little harder beforehand. Based on their careers, and specifically the last three seasons that you frame, I don’t get any feel for who will be on the field more over the next 4 years. Perhaps a slight edge to DW only because Jose’s position and speed game are slightly more physically demanding. I’d be quite comfortable going into a season with either or both on my team.
I’m hesitant to agree with the widely accepted notion that players relying on their legs tend to decrease in performance faster / earlier — perhaps because of people like Juan Pierre, Lou Brock, Maury Wills, Willie Wilson, Tim Raines and Rickey Henderson. It seems while players may lose a step, they’re still fast enough to use their legs to their advantage, especially if they can hit. And there’s no question that Jose Reyes can hit.
Alternatively, I’ve seen many players not on PEDs who rely on power lose their bat speed almost overnight (Robin Ventura, Jason Bay) and see their value / performance plummet.
I’m not saying that Reyes will definitely have a longer career than Wright, only that it’s really, really hard to predict.
Here’s the key difference: Wright at less than 100% is still David Wright. Reyes at less than 100% is not Jose Reyes. See before and after his injury in 2011:
80 games, .927 OPS, 15 3B, 30 SB, good defense
46 games, .784 OPS, 1 3B, 9 SB, mediocre defense
It happened again this year: returning from a torn up ankle, he stole 15 bases and hit zero triples in 93 games, and defensive metrics didn’t like him.
Of course, if Reyes adjusts more quickly to age, and Wright continues to try to play on pulled hamstrings, then Wright will suffer more serious injuries and DL time. But even if that does happen, is it safe for us to assume that Reyes wouldn’t be doing the same thing if he were still on the Mets?
I wonder if the next market inefficiency might be health. Sit guys when they’re banged up, put ’em back on the field when they’re ready to thrive, not just survive. I wonder if that factors into playing time on the Rays’ mix-and-match roster…
Be careful with that wish of running out every ground ball. That’s what gave Joe fodder for this post. There’s a reason why Robinson Cano plays every game.
Due to “Off The Feild Issues” I have neglected my Mets blog. (Which I am not here to plug so I wont name it)
One of my first orders of business when I got back to it was to point out exactly what you illustrated so well. I never wanted to consider the Wright or Reyes? dilema. It was a shame that one had to be chosen. My support was for Reyes simply because he was on of the most exciting players I have ever seen. He also playes a premium position that is getting thinner by the year. (T-Tul, Han-Ram, The one maybe 2 guys I am forgetting, the who Profar and Simmons are projected to be.) R&W was the left side of the onfield that I will always wonder how different things could have been if they were kept together. (And lets hope the Jays decide to trade what suddenly looks like a reasonable salary before Jeter retires because that is my worst nightmare come true.)
Thanks