The Mets have already missed out on two of the most remarkable values of the offseason — Bobby Abreu at $5M for one year and Orlando Hudson at $3M (plus incentives) for one year. Both players publicly stated their desire to play in New York City, so it wasn’t an issue of the Mets having to do much convincing. And the idea that Hudson might have caused tension on the team because Castillo was still around is absolute insanity. How can a team that collapsed two years in a row be worried about retaining its personality? If anything, the Mets should have been hell bent on stirring up the comfort in the clubhouse.

Anyway, the point is, there are still a few undervalued gems waiting to be picked up, for a beggar’s purse. Let’s take a look at a few in particular, who are worth a roll of the dice.

Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez
Pudge has been telling people he wants to play for the Mets since last October. He’s going to come at a significant discount — probably less than $1M — and he might even be open to taking a minor league deal. How often do you find players who WANT to play in New York, and not because of money? The Mets are desperate for a solid, veteran righthanded hitter for the bench, and Pudge would be an ideal platoon partner with Brian Schneider — not to mention the winning background, leadership qualities, and strong clubhouse presence he brings to the equation.

Yes, the Mets already have Ramon Castro, but Castro has had trouble staying healthy his entire career — and it’s hard to believe that factor will change at age 33. The other argument is that Castro is a friend of everyone on the team, and keeps things loose in the clubhouse. Well guess what? Him keeping things looser and being such a strong personality has not helped this team get to the postseason the last two years.

For those who don’t like Pudge because he has a perpetually low OBP, hit poorly in his one month as a Yankee, and isn’t the same player he was 4-5 years ago, I agree. However, I also believe that Ivan Rodriguez in the twilight of his career is still at least twice as good — overall — as any combination of Robinson Cancel, Rene Rivera, and whatever other independent league backstop the Mets can scrape up when Castro goes to the DL multiple times during the season.

Ray Durham
I thought for sure the Mets would be all over Durham, especially since he played four seasons under Jerry Manuel. But then, maybe he and Uncle Jerry don’t get along? (Yes, Virginia, Jerry Manuel had major problems with his players in Chicago … oh, you weren’t aware? Anyway, that’s for another day.) Durham hits from both sides, can play 2B and the outfield equally adequately, has some punch, can still run the bases, and is an on-base machine. He’s currently contemplating retirement because no one is interested in his services, but if a potential contender such as the Mets made an inquiry, he might just consider a minor league deal. The shame is that the Mets were so quick to lock up Alex Cora on that ridiculous, guaranteed, $2M contract, and now are committed to handing him the backup infield job.

(Wow … think about that … the Mets signed Alex Cora for one million less than the Dodgers are paying Orlando Hudson. Who would you rather have? Alex Cora and Livan Hernandez or Orlando Hudson? Tough pill to swallow. Anyway, I digress …)

Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, Ricardo Rincon

All four of these LOOGYs are still available. I like Rincon, Beimel, and Ohman in that order, and even though Reyes scares me, at this point he should be a relative bargain. So what the hey? The Mets can’t possibly think that Casey Fossum or Valerio De Los Santos can be trusted against the likes of Utley – Howard – Ibanez.

Mark Mulder

Mulder may never, ever return to being a solid starting pitcher. But what’s to say he can’t evolve into a LOOGY? No one is offering Mulder a contract of any sort, so he might be willing to take an incentive-laden minor-league deal as he continues his comeback. At 31 years old, he still has time to make it back.

Jay Payton

I can’t believe I’m suggesting the Mets sign Jay Payton, but let’s think about this objectively. The Mets could really use a solid, veteran, righthanded hitter who can play strong defense in the outfield and hit with occasional pop. Check, check, check. Give the guy a minor league deal and a chance to win a spot on the bench.

Chuck James

James was absolutely horrid in 2008, posting a 9.10 ERA before discovering he had a rotator cuff tear. Most likely, he won’t be able to contribute at the big league level in 2009. But hey, he’s a lefty, he’s only 27, and he wasn’t a power pitcher so the shoulder issue may not adversely affect his performance. Sign him to a cheap minor league deal, stash him in A ball, and look for him to help out late in the season or to compete for a job in 2010. The kid knew how to pitch before the surgery, so who knows — he might be another Jamie Moyer.

Nomar Garciaparra

Yes, he’s only a shell of what he once was, and he’s injury prone. However, his injuries are due to a medical condition that is pronounced by playing every day. With the Mets, he’d be a part-time player, filling in at several positions and being the first RH bat off the bench. The guy knows how to play the game, plays it hard, knows how to win, has performed under pressure, and can hit in his sleep. Watch him sign with the Phillies instead and get big hits to break the Mets’ back late in the season.

Ben Sheets

Take a page from the Jon Lieber chapter of Yankees history and sign Sheets to a two-year deal. Pay the man to rehab in 2009, and have one of the top righthanded pitchers in the NL East competing for a spot in 2010. What do you have to lose?

Did I miss anyone? Post your comments below.

Orlando Hudson
The price has now dropped to under $5M and only one year. You’re telling me that the Mets won’t bite, because they don’t want to sit Luis Castillo’s $18M on the bench? Surely you jest … if the Mets had been able to dump Castillo in, say, October, they might have considered Hudson’s 5-year, $50M demands. At

That fact has been accepted; we understand that the financial risk involved in carrying a $25M+ leftfielder for a year or two, in this unstable economy, is too much for the Wilpons to handle So, we as fans have stepped down our expectations, hoping that perhaps the Mets would look to someone like Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu — either of whom would accept a one-year deal in the neighborhood of $6-8M. This relatively paltry sum would be a drop in the bucket even for a Madoff-affected organization, and is a bargain for the services rendered by either of these productive on-base machines.

However, it has come to our attention that the Mets can’t even afford that to rectify their clusterflock of a leftfield situation. According to The Daily News:

A Mets official did not rule out signing free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu, but indicated that any contract likely would have to be for one year at less than $4 million.

OK. There’s hardball negotiating, and then there are offers so obnoxiously low that they don’t deserve the courtesy of a response. This has happened once this winter with the Mets and a certain righthanded pitcher now dressing in an Atlanta Braves uniform. Here again, we run into a Mets team crying poverty, hat in hand, hoping against hope that a quality, impact-type MLB veteran will take less than half his asking price.

There was a time, earlier this offseason, that I would have ridiculed the Mets for considering Bobby Abreu. That time seems decades ago. Had I known the Mets would spend so recklessly on futility players, and be so complacent regarding all but one of the top free agents, and so “comfortable” with the same team that choked two years in a row, my feelings would have been different. The Mets may well have dire financial issues right now, and if that’s the case, it’s their own fault. Before anyone cries about the economy or a Ponzi scheme, they better take a look at all the “cookie” money doled out to insignificant contributors.

People say I made too much of the Alex Cora signing, for example, Well, there’s $2M right there. Add those two to the $2.25M wasted on Tim Redding and suddenly you have a little over four million bucks to sweeten the pot for Abreu, who had reportedly been very interested in returning to the NL and playing another year in New York. Now you tell me: who would make more of an impact on the ‘09 Mets? A combination of Cora and Redding or Abreu by himself? This becomes all the more irresponsible when you see people like David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Josh Fogg, and Odalis Perez signing cheap, non-guaranteed, minor-league deals.

Take a look at the assortment of nickels and dimes handed out by the Mets so far this winter:

$2.25M, Tim Redding
$2M, Alex Cora
$1.7M, Fernando Tatis
$1.6875M, Duaner Sanchez
$1.6, Pedro Feliciano
$925K, Jeremy Reed
$600K, Cory Sullivan
$575K, Angel Pagan

Right there is over $11M, spent on 8 players who are either overpriced, redundant, or won’t make the 25-man roster. The Mets had the option to let go any of the last six on the list, and to ignore the first two. I understand that you need “bit players” and extra guys to fill out a roster. I can sort of understand giving Tatis the big money after his great second half. I personally like both Duaner Sanchez and Pedro Feliciano, but from a business standpoint, either could have been replaced for about half their salaries (for example, LOOGY Juan Rincon signed a minor league deal; several other relief pitchers remain available). The real head-scratcher is the $2.1M handed to Reed, Sullivan, and Pagan, who are essentially the same player. Why not keep just one, or better yet, bring in any of the dozens of defensive-minded AAAA free-agent outfielders on a minor league deal?

If the Mets couldn’t afford another $3-4M to bag Bobby Abreu (or Adam Dunn, for that matter),then maybe they should have been more astute in their scrap heap bidding. A nickel saved here, a dime saved there, and Abreu — who is much better than the current Tatis/Murphy platoon — could have been a Met. Abreu batted third for the Yankees last year, yet would have fit somewhere from #5-7 in the Mets lineup. Think about that for a moment, and then consider the fiscal irresponsibility that has marred the Mets’ offseason. Yes, the Mets picked up K-Rod for below-market value, and brought back Oliver Perez at a fair price, but nearly every other “little” signing has effectively negated the efficiency of those signings.

After receiving a sweet bailout as a reward for royally mismanaging its finances, Citigroup is coming under fire from prominent politicos such as Dennis Kucinich, who says the US government should demand that the bank cancel its “Citi Field” sponsorship with the Mets.

“The Treasury Department, which forced Citigroup corporate executives to give up their private jet, should also demand that Citigroup cancel its $400 million advertisement at the Mets field and instead being to repay their debt to the taxpayers.”

Hat tip to MetsToday reader “wohjr” for the link.

An intriguing proposal, to say the least. On the one hand, Citi did enter into a contract with the Mets, and what’s the point of a contract if one side decides to, um, bail out? Further, doesn’t the company need to continue advertising and promoting their brand? For example, if the US bails out GM, does that mean they should stop doing TV commercials? Tough question.

On the other hand, would Citigroup gain enough customers in the next 20 years to justify the $400M investment? Hard to say, as I’m not a marketing forecaster.

From the perspective of the average joe, smattering your name across a baseball stadium when you’re broke doesn’t look so great. It could, in fact, be argued that Citigroup will LOSE customers as a result of continuing with their sponsorship. It doesn’t matter if Citi takes that $400M and spends it on a rash of TV commercials, magazine ads, and PR events — the guy on the street can’t SEE that money being spent.

Naturally, there’s also the point that taxpayers have been partially funding the stadium’s construction … so why isn’t the taxpayer’s name on the front of the park?

From the Mets fans’ perspective, it’s just as murky. Without Citi’s name on the stadium, the Mets have $20M less to work with every year — which more or less pays for Johan Santana’s contract. Since the team appears to already be penny-pinching, would such a loss in revenue result in payroll cuts? Would the team begin to operate even more like a small-market club? Of course, there’s also the possibility that they are able to get another, more lucrative sponsor for the stadium. Though, it’s hard to imagine someone stepping up with big bucks in this economic climate — unless the company is Google or Raytheon.

Many have been speculating that the Mets disinterest in big names such as C.C. Sabathia and Manny Ramirez was due to the Bernie Madoff scandal. Perhaps. And, perhaps they are also bracing for the possible loss of Citi’s $400M commitment.

As a Mets fan, why do you care? Well, you probably don’t. But it should be noted that Uribe is:

1. a righthanded hitter with power

2. versatile — he plays 2B, SS, and 3B

3. an excellent glove man

4. only 29 years old

5. signed to a minor league deal

Uribe hit 20+ homers in three out of the four years from 2004-2007. He lost his starting 2B job last spring to Alexei “All-World” Ramirez, and became a utility infielder with pop. In truth, I doubt he’s actually 29 years old — something tells me there was a “paperwork adjustment” — but if he is indeed under thirty, he should have at least one or two more years of peak performance left in him.

Once again — great glove man, former starter at 2B, good pop in the bat, righthanded hitter, signed to a minor league deal, which likely is much less than $1M guaranteed. Doesn’t that sound like an IDEAL fit for the New York Mets?

Oh, that’s right, the Mets signed 33-year-old, lefthanded hitting, no-pop Alex Cora to a $2M guaranteed MLB contract. Smart move.

Ho hum.

Nowhere in those four names do I see “Ramirez”, “Perez”, nor “Sheets”.

In other news, the Orioles have decided to move on from Kevin Millar, who happens to be a righthanded hitter with some power and the ability to play LF better than Fernando Tatis. Unfortunately, Millar’s status as a scab in 1995 still irks the prince of darkness, Tony Bernazard.

I like seeing Armas come back, even though he once again showed himself a Glass Joe in ‘08. I’ve always liked Armas’ competitiveness. If he can only stay healthy, he just might be good enough to be a long reliever / spot starter.

Kielty is a switch-hitting outfielder with a tiny bit of pop and one heckuva shock of red hair. I think he might be Irish, which is nice. It’s also nice that he can swing from the right side of the plate — something few outfielders in the Mets organization can do.

De Los Santos has almost twenty letters in his name, and throws with his left hand. He doesn’t throw particularly well, but balls do emanate from the south side of the stadium. He is 35 years old and LH hitters pound him to the tune of .262. His “best” years came at ages 29 and 30, when he was with the Brewers. He posted a career low 3.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP as a 29-year-old in 2002. He’s been pretty much awful ever since, and before. He’ll be good filler material in AAA.

Still waiting to see the Mets bring back the ageless wonder Ricardo Rincon, a LOOGY who actually had success in his career, and didn’t look half-bad last September.

DeSalvo is a former Yankee who pitched two innings for the Braves last year. In those two frames, he gave up 11 hits, 2 walks, and 7 runs. However, he did strike out 2, so there’s that. Many articles have been written on him in regard to the fact he can read; apparently, most MLBers are illiterate. Hopefully he can help the Buffalo Bisons complete the NY Times crossword puzzles.

All along, it was expected that Jones would return to the Braves, as he always felt very comfortable in Atlanta and enjoyed playing for Bobby Cox. In fact, over the past few days Jones has been seen practicing with Chipper Jones and wearing a Braves cap at basketball games.

However, the Braves are not exactly welcoming him back with open arms — and may not offer him a contract at all.

The issue is simple — the Braves have a full 40-man roster stocked with an abundance of young talent. If they sign Jones to a MLB contract, they’d have to drop someone off — and that someone would likely be a strong prospect, who would be picked up by another team. Further, the Braves do not currently have a need for Jones, as they have an abundance of outfielders led by Jeff Francoeur and youngsters Josh Anderson and Brandon Jones. To make room, the Braves would likely have to either waive or trade someone like Gregor Blanco, Martin Prado, or Omar Infante. None of those players are stars, but all three showed offensive promise in 2008, are fairly young, versatile, and can do a lot of things a team needs from role players. Bobby Cox’s formula for success has always included the flexibility of such players — guys who may not be sluggers, but can execute all the “little things” and help the team in many other ways. Andruw Jones would have to have a great spring training to push one of those guys off the roster.

Because of the Braves’ lukewarm interest, Andruw Jones has to look for other options, and according to MLB.com:

Jones has told friends that he believes the Reds and Mets could make a push to acquire him. Both of these teams reportedly talked to the Dodgers about acquiring him via trade earlier this offseason.

Personally, I hope that’s true. Say what you want about Jones being finished, being a lazy fat pig, being finished, etc. etc. etc. Bottom line is this: the Mets are in DIRE need of a power hitting, righthanded-hitting corner outfielder. The current free agent market offers exactly one person to fit that description — Manny Ramirez — and all indications are that the Mets refuse to go that route. After Manny, the market drops considerably for a RH-hitting outfielder: Kevin Millar, Jacque Jones, Jay Payton, Emil Brown, and Jonny Gomes. That’s it, folks! Now you tell me — would you prefer to bring in one of those underwhelming possibilities, or take a $400,000 gamble on Andruw Jones?

Earlier this winter, I make the argument that the Mets should try to swap Castillo for Jones — such a deal would have had the Mets paying $15M for Jones (but also shedding $18M of Castillo’s contract). It would have been nice for the Mets to be $3M ahead and have Jones, but the same arguments apply for bringing him in on the MLB minimum salary — it’s a low-risk gamble that has the chance of paying off big.

Here’s my feeling: either Andruw Jones is going to hit again, or he’s not, and everything is based on him being healthy and regaining his confidence. If he has a promising, injury-free spring training, there’s a very good chance he’ll come back and hit 20-25 HR, with game-changing ability. He’s that kind of player, and there aren’t many around. If he looks awful in spring training, no biggie — you release him outright, and eat $400K. Jones is exactly the right fit for the penny-pinching Mets: he’ll come dirt cheap, he’ll be a one-year rental to keep LF warm for F-Mart, he has a RH bat, and he has extensive postseason success.

Last year, the Mets waited three months for their $16M investment in Carlos Delgado to pay off. Eventually, their patience was rewarded — handsomely. Without Delgado, the Mets might have finished in third place in 2008. Similarly, the Mets once gambled millions on Mo Vaughn, though that didn’t turn out quite so well. But it’s worth it for a team to take such risks when the upside is so great — Delgado, Vaughn, and Jones all had the skillset to be a monster for stretches at a time, to put a team on its back and carry them. The difference with Jones is, at 31, younger than either of them were (Vaughn was 34, Delgado 36), and won’t cost anywhere near the millions gambled on a comeback.

Unless the Mets reconsider their feelings about Manny Ramirez, or have some blockbuster trade in the works, picking up Andruw Jones is a no-brainer.

The question is, can each team score almost 800 runs again, and/or, will one team have an offensive edge?

Comparing the two lineups, it’s a close call. The Mets have Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and most likely Luis Castillo occupying the first four spots in the lineup. The Phillies counter with a top four of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. We can argue which team is stronger leadoff through cleanup, but I tend to think that — even if Dan Murphy is the Mets’ #2 hitter — the teams are pretty close to equal. Similarly, the bottom of the orders are comparable — right now it looks like the Brian Schneider / Ramon Castro platoon hitting eighth vs. the Chris Coste / Carlos Ruiz tandem.

Where the edge will come, then, is in batting spots 5 through 7. It’s my cockamamie theory that the team strongest 5-7 will be the NL East champions in 2009.

Take a look at the comparison side by side:

Raul Ibanez | Carlos Delgado
Jayson Werth / Geoff Jenkins | Ryan Church
Pedro Feliz / Gregg Dobbs | Fernando Tatis / Daniel Murphy

The order above is interchangeable, but what I tried to do was pair up the combinations that most closely matched. Ibanez and Delgado are similar in that they’re both entering the twilights of their careers, but had strong enough finishes to their ‘08 campaigns to provide optimism for ‘09. I think this comparison, like the first four hitters, is a wash. I expect a dropoff from Ibanez due to the change in leagues and aging process, but CBP may artificially soften that downward trend. Delgado will still hit more homeruns, but Ibanez will swat more doubles and hit 25-30 points higher. In the end their runs and RBI totals should be close.

Where the Phillies really had an advantage last year was in the #6 and #7 holes, which featured any combination of Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz, Greg Dobbs, and Geoff Jenkins. The Werth / Jenkins tandem last year combined for .260 AVG. /33 HR/96 RBI production. Feliz had his typical injury-riddled year, dotted with hot streaks and cold streaks, and Dobbs might have hit a little over his head at .301. None of those players are guaranteed to repeat their performances, mind you, but all of them have enough history to lead you to believe they’ll come close.

That said, I’m not sure Church can approach the production of Werth / Jenkins (or Werth on his own, if that’s how it shakes out). Looking at each’s skillset, Church and Werth may well put up close to equal numbers. But that will only happen if Werth’s 2008 was his ceiling, AND Church can significantly increase his ability to divert pitches over the wall.

Just as concerning, I don’t know that the Tatis / Murphy experiment is going to be head and shoulders above the Pedro Feliz / Greg Dobbs combination. If Feliz can stay healthy — which is a big if — he’ll hit his typical .250, and probably hit 20-22 homers. Dobbs may not hit .300 again, but his 9 HRs and 40 RBI in 226 ABs were a followup to 10 HR and 55 RBI in 324 ABs in 2007. In other words, there’s a decent shot that the 30-year-old Dobbs provides similar numbers in ‘09. If so, that gives the Phillies a combined #7 hitter with a line somewhere in the neighborhood of a .270 AVG., 30 HR, and 100 RBI. Can Tatis and Murphy match that? Again, there would have to be either a status quo or decline on the Phillies’ duo, and a trend upward for the Mets. Not impossible, but another case of hopes and wishes.

Of course, the Mets could remove all doubt by signing Manny Ramirez. However, all indications suggest that won’t happen. In fact, the Mets likely won’t sign either of the other two impact bats still available — Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu. Beyond those three, there might be a few veteran hitters who, with a little luck, could tip the lineups into the Mets’ favor — someone like Andruw Jones, Kevin Millar, Garret Anderson, Jonny Gomes, or Ken Griffey. Millar, in particular, would seem to be a nice fit, as he could spell both Delgado and Church, and/or be the platoon partner for Murphy in left, and provide a solid RH bat off the bench. But, Millar could be looking for a regular job elsewhere, and even if he is interested in wearing the orange and blue, Tony Bernazard still holds a grudge against him for crossing the picket line in 1994 (Bernazard was an important pencil-pusher for the MLBPA back then).

But in the end, none of the free agents appear to be on the Mets’ radar, and it’s hard to see a situation where the Mets can import one via trade. Their top trading chips for an MLB position player are Murphy, Jon Niese, and Fernando Martinez, and they’d probably have to trade at least two of those three to get back an impact bat. The chance of that happening is about as likely as Eric Byrnes arriving in return for Luis Castillo — slim and none.

In short, the Mets and Phillies, as currently constituted, appear to be equal again offensively. The Phillies are probably done making offseason moves. So, if the Mets can acquire one more big bat, it would give them an edge — at least, offensively.

Unfortunately, the Mets still have to make three or four moves to improve the pitching staff, and their “one thing at a time” approach suggests that bat may not make it by spring training.

The Mets didn’t get the innings-eating Derek Lowe to plug up the front end of their rotation, and as a result, it looks like another season of starters who struggle to get into, and through, the sixth inning. So even with K-Putz waiting to shut the door, Mets games will still be a crapshoot during the sixth and seventh frames. For one, Pedro Feliciano won’t suddenly evolve from his ideal role of LOOGY — been there, tried that, it didn’t work. Sean Green might be helpful, or he may be another Jon Adkins. Joe Smith is gone. Brian Stokes is back, but can he be as good through 65-70 games as he was in his two dozen appearances of last year? A couple of Rule 5 picks might have a chance to stick — Darren O’Day and Rocky Cherry. Connor Robertson — the guy the Mets received in return for Scott Schoeneweis — might be worse than Adkins. What all these names tell us most is, the sixth and the seventh innings are no more a slam dunk than they were last year.

Luckily, there is still time to rectify the situation. First, there are a number of intriguing free agent middle relievers looking for a new team. For example, Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, and Jason Isringhausen are unemployed. 2008 Mets Luis Ayala, Ricardo Rincon, and Matt Wise are waiting for an ST invite. Chad Cordero auditioned for a bunch of teams, and I’m stunned that Omar Minaya hasn’t locked him up yet. Most recently, the Red Sox DFA’d David Aardsma, a guy who I clamored for this time last year.

My favorites are Cordero, Rincon, Ayala, and Aardsma. Cordero because he’s a low-risk, high-reward type, with a strong competitive fire. I like Rincon because he’s just as good as any other available LOOGY, but will come at a fraction of the cost and will require only a one-year commitment. Ayala is another competitor who was misplaced as a setup man/closer last year, but would be perfect as a 6th/7th inning guy. Aardsma is a diamond in the rough, a late bloomer type in the mold of a Dan Wheeler.

Before you laugh about Aardsma’s 5.55 ERA last year, understand that he pitched 24 of his 47 games in Fenway Park, which can have a dramatic effect on a pitcher’s mentality, focus, and performance. Before you write him off, consider his numbers outside of Fenway Park — 23 IP, 15 H, 19 K, 13 BB, 2.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Wow. That’s like, as good as Juan Cruz — and Aardsma did that in the AL East.

Obviously, the Mets’ biggest issue right now is located a #3 starter. But in the meantime, it wouldn’t hurt to pick up a few more cans of paint for the bullpen wall. Cordero would be a nice calculated gamble, and any one of the others would provide ample depth. What the Mets have done for middle relief, to this point, is change the names — that’s not necessarily the same as improving. As we know, change by itself is not always better. Picking up one or two quality arms will complete the bullpen overhaul, and make the ENTIRE relief corps a team strength.

Lowe had reportedly been offered a 3-year, $35M contract by the New York Mets. Boras is seeking at least four years at around $16M per season for his client.

In desperate need to add starting pitching, the Atlanta ended trade talks with the Padres for Jake Peavy a month ago, and most recently were spurned by longtime Brave John Smoltz, who just agreed to a one-year contract with the Boston Red Sox.

Seeing the talent pool thin, and Lowe’s price tag dropping to below-market standards, Braves GM Frank Wren reached out to Boras. In addition, manager Bobby Cox met with Lowe in Atlanta, and Chipper Jones placed a phone call to the free agent pitcher in hopes of turning him on to “America’s Team”.

Despite this three-way blitz from Atlanta, Ken Rosenthal claims,

“From what I understand, the Braves are not interested in going beyond the three-year, $36 million offer from the Mets… I still don’t see the Braves going where Scott Boras will want them to go.”

Well then Ken, they’re putting on an Oscar-winning performance in the art of the bluff.

Meanwhile, the Mets are standing firm with an offer that pales in comparison to what Carlos Silva received last year from the Seattle Mariners.

While they have Boras’ ear, one must wonder if the Braves will also inquire about Oliver Perez, another free agent handled by the superagent? After all, the 27-year-old lefty has a 6-4 record and 3.46 ERA, including one shutout, in his career against Atlanta.

Actually, the best scenario for Boras is for the Braves to sign Lowe, which would in turn jack up the price on Perez for the Mets. But while the Mets continue to play chicken, the market for both pitchers continues to swell — some reports have the Phillies and Brewers looking at Lowe, and the Angels could be in the bidding for either pitcher.

What if the Mets lose out on BOTH Lowe AND Perez? The next-best starter on the market is probably Jon Garland, who would be a nice innings-eater at the back end of the rotation, but doesn’t project to be much else — even with a change to the NL. After Garland, the quality drops off considerably, with Tim Redding and Randy Wolf — both of whom have been linked to the Mets this winter — leading the pack.

This should be a significant concern for Omar Minaya, who as of now has two healthy starting pitchers heading into spring training (which by the way is only 36 days away). Should Lowe, Perez, Garland, and Redding sign elsewhere — which is a distinct possibility — Minaya’s best chance of putting together a championship rotation will begin with a novena. Hope he has knee pads.

Take a look for yourself at the starters available after Perez and Lowe:

Healthy, but Mediocre to Adequate:

Jon Garland
Tim Redding
Randy Wolf
Braden Looper

Healthy, but Awful to Mediocre:

Chuck James
Livan Hernandez
Odalis Perez
Sidney Ponson
Josh Fogg
Elmer Dessens

Good Potential, Questionable Health:

Ben Sheets
Jason Jennings
Mark Prior
Andy Pettitte
Mark Mulder
Curt Schilling

Questionable Potential, Questionable Health:

Bartolo Colon
Pedro Martinez
Freddy Garcia
Orlando Hernandez
Tom Glavine
Tony Armas

Now, let’s consider a few things. First, Tom Glavine is not coming back, and neither is Braden Looper. In addition, the Mets won’t roll the dice on dicey arms such as Mulder, Jennings, and Prior. They might take a chance on Freddy Garcia, and might be forced to gamble on Sheets. Pedro and El Duque would love to come back, but then it would feel like Groundhog Day. If Schilling were a possibility — which he likely isn’t — he wouldn’t be available until at least July. I’m not even going to qualify Dessens, Fogg, and Ponson. Odalis Perez and Livan Hernandez have been linked to the Mets in the past, and they could get ST invites — the question is, would we care? Pettitte would be a nice coup to annoy the crosstown Yankees, but he’s already turned down a $10M offer the Mets aren’t likely to top. Chuck James had a 9.10 ERA last year; he’s a guy who would be nice to have at AAA — not someone holding up the middle of your rotation. That leaves the underwhelming trio of Garland, Redding, and Wolf as the last men standing — they’re not necessarily coveted, but rather the default values left over when the quality has exited the market.

Should the Mets be stuck with a combination of Redding, Garland, and/or Wolf supporting the back end of their rotation, they will have no choice but to bring in Manny Ramirez. If you can’t keep the other team from scoring, then you have to outscore ‘em, right?

It will be interesting to see how this drama develops over the next two weeks …

Anyway, the recent signing of Jody Gerut to a one-year, $1.775M contract by the Padres reminded me that he was one of players we discussed here prior to the opening of 2008 spring training.

Specifically:

Padres sign OF Jody Gerut to a minor league contract.
This doesn’t really mean much to Mets fans, since Gerut is a lefthanded hitting outfielder — and we already have Endy for that role. But it’s intriguing to me anyway. Gerut finished fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2003, when he hit 33 doubles, 22 homers, drove in 75 runs, and batted .280 in only 127 games for the Indians. Then he fell off the planet due to knee injuries, and hasn’t appeared in an MLB game since 2005. However, he’s tearing up the Venezuelan league this winter, to the tune of .390 with 80 total bases in 40 games. It appears he’s healthy, and motivated to win a job somewhere. The Padres might have a find in this guy.

In that same article from late last January, we also liked Sean Burnett, David Aardsma, Jeremy Affeldt, Octavio Dotel, Franklyn German, and Mike Myers. OK, we missed on Myers, but the other five enjoyed mixed success. Let’s review each of them.

Sean Burnett
What was said in January:

… while researching Gerut, I noticed that former #1 pick Sean Burnett had a 2.45 ERA in Venezuela. Burnett looked promising in a short trial as a 21-year-old in 2004, then succumbed to elbow issues and Tommy John surgery, which eliminated him from competition for all of 2005 and part of ‘06. It appears he’s now healthy, and was never a flamethrower — more a control guy with a hard sinker. If his velocity is near the 88-90 range, he has the control and guile to be a solid #4 at the MLB level. He’s still on the Pirates’ 40-man, and it might be interesting to watch his progress. If he cracks the 25-man roster, who knows — he might be trade bait come July.

What happened in 2008:
Burnett did make the Pirates’ 25-man roster and appeared in 58 games, posting a 4.76 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Not great by any means, but he held LH hitters to a .171 batting average, .238 OBP, and .271 SLG. Add in he’s only 25 years old and still recovering from his elbow issues — and still very cheap — and suddenly he’s a bargain LOOGY with some upside.

David Aardsma
What was said in January:

Aardsma was a 2003 #1 pick after becoming Rice U’s all-time career saves leader. He was rushed to the bigs by the Giants, was knocked back down quickly, and bounced to the Cubs and White Sox in the past two years. Personally, I think this kid has great potential, but needs to stay in one place long enough to build his confidence and prove his worth. He just turned 26 years old, and could be one of those guys who could blossom all at once and “come out of nowhere” — a la Cla Meredith or Tony Pena — to become a valuable middle reliever. After Aardsma was DFA’d, a part of me hoped the Mets’ brass was on the case, but the BoSox moved quickly in acquiring him for two non-prospects. I think he could have been a nice addition to the bullpen depth — particularly since he still has options.

What happened in 2008:
Aardsma played a fairly important role eating up innings out of the Bosox bullpen, appearing in 47 games and striking out 49 batters in 48 IP. He walked 35, though, and posted a 5.55 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Before you scoff at those numbers, however, check out what he did outside of Fenway Park — 23 IP, 15 H, 19 K, 13 BB, 2.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. That walk rate is still high, but this is clearly a guy who had troubles pitching with the Green Monster at his back. Away from Boston, Aardsma had numbers comparable to Juan Cruz.

Jeremy Affeldt
What was said in January:

… had he not been offered a spot in the Reds’ rotation, he might have been a nice fit in the old Darren Oliver role.

What happened in 2008:
OK, he wasn’t really a “scrap heap” guy, but his strong 2007 in Colorado only earned him a 1-year deal with the Reds. In Cincinnati he had another strong season, which he parlayed into a 2-year, $8M contract with the Giants.

Octavio Dotel
What was said in January:

Yes, I’ve been advocating the acquisition of Dotel all winter. And I still think, even at two years, he would have been worth it. If the Mets were willing to give flash-in-the-pan LOOGY Scott Schoeneweis a three-year deal, I see no logic in failing to offer a two-year deal to Dotel, who has tons more upside and significant experience in both closer and setup roles. Yes, his fragility is a concern, but that’s why he came as cheap as he did …

What happened in 2008:
72 G | 67 IP | 92 K | 52 H | 29 BB | 1.29 WHIP | 3.76 ERA

Like Affeldt, Dotel was hardly a “scrap heap” guy, but teams were shying away due to concerns about his health. The two-year deal given by the ChiSox seemed risky. Well, as you see he appeared in 72 games and had a crazy amount of strikeouts — just the type of “swing and miss guy” the Mets admitted they needed desperately in their 2008 bullpen. The one negative was susceptibility to the gopher ball — he allowed a dozen dingers. Still, how would the Mets’ season have played out if Dotel was one of the relief options?

Franklyn German

What was said in January:

German is a flamethrower who once rated higher than Joel Guzman in the Tigers’ organization. German stands 6′7″, weighs 270 lbs., and hurls the ball in excess of 100 MPH. Why he hasn’t done much is something of a mystery — his strikeout totals in the minors have been insane (career: 531 Ks in 495 IP) but he hasn’t been able to stay on an ML roster. I’ve seen him pitch both in Detroit and in the Dominican League, and can’t figure it out — in the Dominican, he’s been an intimidating, effective closer. He was a free agent this winter and chose to stick with Texas despite spending all of 2007 playing for their AAA team. I would have liked to seen him as one of cans of paint the Mets throw on the wall this spring — a Jorge Julio type that Rick Peterson could have had fun with. But then, I guess that project slot has been filled by Joselo Diaz.

What happened in 2008
As usual, German had trouble getting out of AAA, mainly due to control issues. He did manage to open the season in the bigs and pitch in 17 games with the Rangers, hurling 22 innings, allowing 18 hits, 13 walks, striking out 15 and posting a 2.08 ERA. After a three-inning outing in late May, he was DFA’d, signed by the Pirates, spent the rest of the year in AAA, and then in August was traded to the White Sox for a player to be named later. I’m not certain, but believe a big league club has already invited him to spring training.

Like last winter, we’ll be sifting through the scrap heap in search of hidden gems between now and the opening of spring training 2009. Hopefully Omar and co. are paying attention this time.

Contrary to popular opinion, this “change” was not inspired by the 2008 Presidential Election. Rather, the plan is to provide you more comprehensive offseason news, in a way that is easy to navigate.

Opinion pieces featuring my trademark cynicism and snarky commentary will continue to be the focus, as will your participation. However, there will be more clicking and less scrolling as I attempt to provide an online “scoreboard” of hot stove happenings.

As always, your feedback is greatly appreciated. Please post your comments or send me an email.

Meantime, the same sure-fire system puts Gregg Zaun and Rudy Seanez on a level with Brad Penny, John Smoltz, and Jon Garland. You simply can’t make this stuff up.

For the uninitiated, a team losing a “Type A” gets two first-round draft picks — one of which will come from the signing team, unless the signing team has one of the top 15 picks in the draft, and one “sandwich pick” between the first and second rounds. Teams losing “Type B” free agents receive one sandwich pick, also between the first and second rounds.

Armed with that knowledge, herewith I relay the “Type A” and “Type B” free agents that have filed so far.

Type A
Mark Teixeira
C.C. Sabathia
Bobby Abreu
Doug Brocail
A.J. Burnett
Pat Burrell
Orlando Cabrera
Juan Cruz
Ryan Dempster
Adam Dunn
Brian Fuentes
Brian Giles
Trevor Hoffman
Bobby Howry
Orlando Hudson
Raul Ibanez
Derek Lowe
Damaso Marte
Jamie Moyer
Mike Mussina
Darren Oliver
Oliver Perez
Andy Pettitte
Manny Ramirez
Edgar Renteria
Francisco Rodriguez
Ben Sheets
Russ Springer
Jason Varitek
Kerry Wood

Type B
Jeremy Affeldt
Moises Alou
Garret Anderson
Luis Ayala
Joe Beimel
Casey Blake
Milton Bradley
Paul Byrd
Mike Cameron
Alan Embree
Eric Gagne
Jon Garland
Luis Gonzalez
Ken Griffey
Mark Grudzielanek
LaTroy Hawkins
Jason Isringhausen
Randy Johnson
Jeff Kent
Paul LoDuca
Braden Looper
Mark Loretta
Brandon Lyon
Greg Maddux
Brad Penny
Denny Reyes
Arthur Rhodes
Ivan Rodriguez
Rudy Seanez
Brian Shouse
John Smoltz
Frank Thomas
Salomon Torres
Juan Uribe
David Weathers
Randy Wolf
Gregg Zaun

That means we’ll begin discussing:

1. Free agents to bring back, or unleash

2. Free agents to pursue

3. Trades to conjure and debate

4. Rumors to discuss, and dispel

5. Scrap-heap pickups to analyze

6. Prospects to postulate for positions

7. My Bullpen Blueprint, if it’s ever finished

8. and so much more ……

First on the slate, this week’s scrap heap, which includes:

Jose Castillo (FA)
Dave Borkowski (FA)
Chip Ambres (FA)
Jolbert Cabrera (FA)
Tyler Walker (FA)
Francisco Rosario (FA)
Kip Wells (FA)
Kevin Mench (DFA)

And for those who missed it, LHP Adam Loewen was released by the Orioles, only to be picked up by the Blue Jays as an outfielder / first baseman!

For example, the Mets ARE after Manny, but the Mets are NOT after Manny.The Mets ARE after K-Rod, yet the Mets are NOT after K-Rod. Derek Lowe doesn’t want to play on the East Coast, Derek Lowe’s preference is to sign with Boston. Jake Peavy hates New York, Jake Peavy would agree to go to New York. The Mets will sign a closer, the Mets will trade for a closer, the Mets will fill the closer role from within. Luis Castillo will be traded, Luis Castillo is untradeable.

Welcome to the Hot Stove Preseason!

Here are my vague predictions:

1. The Mets will not get K-Rod, C.C. Sabathia, nor Ben Sheets, but will nonetheless overpay to bring in pitching.

2. The Mets will not have the goods to trade for Matt Holliday, Jake Peavy, Garrett Atkins, nor any other big-name star on the market.

3. The Mets will wind up unloading Luis Castillo for garbage, and eating most of his salary.

4. The Mets will either trade Aaron Heilman for garbage, or announce that he will compete for the closer role.

5. The Mets will fail to protect an MLB-ready position player, and lose him in the Rule 5 draft.

6. If they don’t trade Castillo and sign Orlando Hudson, the Mets will sign Ray Durham to compete with Castillo at 2B.

7. At least one former Expo will be signed as a free agent.

8. The Mets will make a trade with the Dodgers.

9. Brian Fuentes, K-Rod, and Oliver Perez will sign very late — within a few weeks of spring training.

10. If Ollie doesn’t sign with the Mets, he will sign with either the Yankees, Rangers, or a California team.

Please note, I take no responsibility whatsoever if any of these predictions ring true — or false. Most of them are based on pure guesswork. At least one or two have some “inside” substance behind them, but I refuse to say which ones.

More rumors coming soon !

The Mets went to the postseason — the World Series, in fact — in 2000, then took a step back in 2001. There were big contracts to dump, aging veterans to clear out, a bullpen to restructure, and room to be made for up-and-coming prospects. (Any of this sound familiar?)

For example, they were looking toward youngsters Grant Roberts, Jerrod Riggan, Bruce Chen, and possibly Billy Traber making contributions to the pitching staff. Roberts and Chen had shown some promise in short stints in 2001, and Riggan had established himself as a strong righty out of the bullpen. Though their farm system had been criticized, they did have a potential star in Alex Escobar, a can’t-miss lefty in Traber, and some good-looking talent at the lower levels, such as Juan Lebron, Jason Phillips, Mike Kinkade, Ty Wigginton, Dicky Gonzalez, Jason Roach, Earl Snyder, Robert Stratton, Pat Strange, Heath Bell, Jeremy Griffiths, Jae Seo, and Prentice Redman.

However, they were smarting from a third-place finish, and fans were eager to see underperforming stars such as Todd Zeile, Kevin Appier, and Al Leiter get the heave-ho. The bullpen would need an overhaul, with the absence of John Franco (elbow), the exits of Turk Wendell and Dennis Cook, and the subpar work of Rick White and Donne Wall, among others. Riggan, in fact, was seen at the time as the best returning middle reliever — a possible setup man to Armando Benitez. The thought was that if they could make a few moves to expel the excess baggage, and find solid players to surround Edgardo Alfonzo, Mike Piazza, Rey Ordonez, and Benitez, they could get back to the postseason. Don’t laugh — Benitez was coming off a 43-save season, and Ordonez, in addition to being the best defensive shortstop in the NL, was starting to look better with the bat, with career highs in doubles, triples, and homeruns. If they could add a few sluggers and shore up the bullpen issues, they’d be on their way.

Toward that end, following are the trades GM Steve Phillips made.

Robin Ventura to the Yankees for David Justice
David Justice to the As for Mark Guthrie and Tyler Yates

Ventura had underperformed and was having back issues, so they sent him (selling low) to the Yankees for David Justice, who also was coming off a terrible year. It seemed like a decent gamble, since the Mets had no power hitting outfielders — until they flipped Justice to Oakland for 36-year-old LOOGY Mark Guthrie and hard-throwing Hawaiian Tyler Yates. The Justice part of the deal turned out OK, in hindsight — Guthrie had a career year and Yates looked promising, while Justice had a so-so final season (.266, 11 HR) — but neither player had much of an impact on the 2002 season. Ventura, meanwhile, hit 27 HR and 93 RBI for the Yankees in his last season as an effective Major Leaguer. You could say that the Mets were better off trading Ventura a year too early than a year too late, but they didn’t get much in return. Yates showed flashes of potential before being released, and Guthrie left via free agency after the 2002 season. In the end, the Mets would have been better off holding on to Ventura, because removing him meant Edgardo Alfonzo would move to the hot corner, setting up this deal:

Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar, Jerrod Riggan, Earl Snyder and Billy Traber to the Indians for Roberto Alomar, Mike Bacsik, and Danny Peoples.

Talk about buying high! In the end, none of those prospects did anything, so it didn’t hurt the Mets in that respect. But people forget that Traber was a brighter prospect than Jon Niese is now, Escobar was more toolsy than Fernando Martinez and closer to the bigs, Riggan at that time would compare to Joe Smith, and Snyder was a power-hitting first baseman coming off a strong season in AA — in other words, he was Nick Evans. Lawton was a pretty good all-around player with a strong bat and gap power, but who had trouble hitting lefties. Can you say Ryan Church?

Considering that the Mets could do better at second base, would you trade Church, Niese, F-Mart, Joe Smith, and Nick Evans for, say, Brian Roberts? Or, for Chase Utley? For Ian Kinsler or Michael Young?

After the Alomar deal, the Mets sent Justice to Oakland for Guthrie and Yates. Both would be candidates for the bullpen, but the Mets were going to need starting pitching depth, because they were looking to unload Appier’s enormous contract. San Francisco was listening.

Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Desi Relaford to the Giants for Shawn Estes.
This was a situation where the Mets appeared to be selling high and buying low — both Relaford and Shinjo were coming off the best seasons of their career — and Estes was coming off a disappointing season. Estes was also due a big raise in arbitration, which combined with his poor 2001 were the reasons he was available. Still, the Mets traded two men who were borderline everyday starters, under 30, and with cheap contracts. In return they received a fourth or fifth starter with a salary more befitting a #2. I would liken it to trading Endy Chavez or Nick Evans and Dan Murphy for someone like Chris Young of the Padres.

Estes’ arrival made the next trade easy.

Kevin Appier to the Angels for Mo Vaughn
For those who want to dump Luis Castillo’s bad contract, try to remember this deal. The Mets signed Appier to an extraordinary deal (at the time) — four years at $42M — and he proceeded to go 11-10. Not a great year, but the worst of his career. There were whispers he was injured, or simply done (sound familiar?). The Mets, embarrassed with the contract, and desperate to remove this albatross, send Appier to the Left Coast in return for Vaughn, who had missed the entire previous season and had ballooned to around 300 pounds. Again, a sell-low situation where the Mets were desperate. They did get rid of Appier’s bad contract, but took on Vaughn’s, which was worse. Appier won 14 games the next season for the Angels.

I can’t think of a good comparison to this year’s team. Maybe it would be like if the Mets had Barry Zito and were trading him for Moises Alou, and Alou had a three-year contract.

But these deals had further-reaching effect. To fill Appier’s spot in the rotation, and make room for Vaughn, the Mets first signed Pedro Astacio to a 1-year, $5M deal with incentives, and then made this deal:

Lenny Harris and Glendon Rusch to the Brewers and Benny Agbayani, Todd Zeile, and cash to the Rockies, for Craig House and Ross Gload from the Rockies and Jeff D’Amico, Jeromy Burnitz, Lou Collier, Mark Sweeney, and cash from the Brewers.

D’Amico, who had been injury prone but had a decent 2001, was a typical “buy high” acquisition — the Mets gave up starting first baseman Todd Zeile, left fielder Benny Agbayani, and young lefty Glendon Rusch (among others). Now, it could be argued that the Mets actually sold high on Agbayani and Rusch — I’d be with you on Benny, but not Rusch, who threw 210 innings the next season and might have continued his upward rise if not for injuries. It’s hard to draw a comparison with current Mets, but I’ll say it’s like sending Ryan Church and Jon Niese for Ricky Nolasco and Luis Gonzalez. Actually, that’s probably not a great comparison, but the best I can come up with right now.

When spring training broke, the Mets still had questions on their pitching staff, particularly in the bullpen. As a result they made this trade:

Bruce Chen, Dicky Gonzalez, Saul Rivera and Luis Figueroa to the Expos for Scott Strickland, Phil Seibel, and Matt Watson.

They sold high on Gonzalez, who was coming off a strong minor league season, but low on Chen. Eventually, Chen got his act together — though it took a while and was fairly brief. It turned out to be a great trade when Strickland had a strong year as the setup man, and began pushing Armando Benitez for the closer role.

As the 2002 season went along, it was clear that the offseason makeover wasn’t working. The Mets still needed pitching, and, still within striking distance of a wild card berth, made two last-ditch efforts on July 31st, the trade deadline.

Jay Payton, Robert Stratton, and Mark Corey to the Rockies for John Thomson and Mark Little

Frustrated with waiting for the oft-injured Jay Payton to blossom, the Mets shipped him off to the thin air of Colorado, where his career took off. Thomson had shown some promise before tearing his labrum and missing all of 2000, but his 7-8 record with the Rockies at the time had suggested that he was on the way back. The 24-year-old Robert Stratton was a former first-round pick who had hit 20 homers in his first 256 at-bats with Norfolk. Corey was a 27-year-old righty who had posted a 1.04 ERA out of Norfolk’s bullpen. Thomson was a bust, and they let him walk after the year. Corey and Stratton never did much at the big league level. Payton didn’t win any batting titles, but the Mets would have been happy to have an outfielder like him every year since.

Bobby M. Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Jason Bay to the Padres for Steve Reed and Jason Middlebrook

Jones was having a tough year (selling low), but Middlebrook was just as bad and the Padres had no need for the 37-year-old Reed, who was in the middle of the best season of his career and would be a free agent at the end of the year. San Diego liked the lefty Jones for reasons unknown, and Reynolds was more suspect than prospect. Padres scouts were high on Bay, who had hit .362 in A ball the previous season and was showing gap power, discipline at the plate, and surprising speed in his first year of AA.

In the end, the makeover for 2002 didn’t work out so well, and in fact sent the organization into a quick spiral downward for the next two seasons. You can say that Steve Phillips was to blame, but again, there is an eerie similarity to the present situation. Phillips was only a year removed from being heralded as the savior of the franchise, making great deals picking players off the scrap heap in leading the Mets to their first World Series in 15 years. Under Phillips, the Mets became perennial postseason contenders, and were breaking records in ticket sales. Then it all got ugly quickly — and it was sparked by the need to move the Appier contract.

Is this to suggest that Omar Minaya will make the same terrible moves? Of course not. What we need to point out here is that dumping one bad contract, and/or trading players at their lowest value, can have far-reaching, long-term effects. It’s not as easy as “getting rid of a guy” and then being done with it. The Appier-Vaughn deal was the first domino that felled the franchise, because it led to several other bad trades.

You can argue that trading Luis Castillo won’t cause the same effect. But there are people who believe that not only Castillo should go, but also Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, and perhaps Duaner Sanchez and Pedro Feliciano. Add in that Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, and Luis Ayala may leave via free agency, and now you’re looking at SEVEN holes to fill on the pitching staff (not to mention second base and left field). The 2002 Mets were crippled after sending away one key starter — which led to the trade of a second key starter. Before thinking it makes sense to “get rid of” all these players coming off bad years — and at a time when they have little value — try to be realistic in figuring out how the Mets will replace all those innings and appearances. Look at the deals above and note how much the Mets overpaid in nearly every deal in an attempt to change their situation.

Further, even though most of the youngsters traded away turned out to be trash, it did weaken the organization to a point where they’re still trying to recover. At the same time, before you go counting on Niese, Parnell, Evans, and Murphy to save the franchise, remember guys like Traber, Escobar, Griffiths, Snyder, Gonzalez, Riggan, Redman, and countless others who were tabbed as “can’t miss” prospects at similar points in their career. For every Jason Bay there are ten Robert Strattons. If history is any indicator, the Mets, in order to dump some of these bad contracts, they’ll likely have to include prospects — if they want anything of value in return.

Bottom line? Be careful what you wish for. The Mets may find new addresses for Heilman, Castillo, Schoeneweis, etc., but at what cost?

(BTW, I want to give credit where credit is due: see Mike Steffanos’ excellent piece from two years ago for a great synopsis of Mets deals going back to 1981 — it was a main piece of my research for this long-winded post. Mike and his staff continue to do a great job blogging at Mike’s Mets.)

It was also announced that Conti and Luis Aguayo would be reassigned within the organization.

What could be interpreted by the demotion of Guy Conti — and it IS a demotion, no matter which way you slice it — is that Pedro Martinez also will not be returning. Conti had been originally promoted from the Mets’ farm system at the request of Pedro, who had worked with the coach as a member of the Dodgers.

Of course, it could just be a signal that if Pedro returns, he won’t wield the same influence in the organization as before. Based on Pedro’s performance the last few years, it’s understandable. At the same time, Conti’s presence was nothing but positive during his tenure, with several pitchers going to him for advice and guidance. He, like Warthen, was the “anti-Jacket”, a coach who had a somewhat opposite philosophy from Rick Peterson. Pitchers who didn’t buy in to Peterson’s approach could go to Conti (and Pedro) for support.

That said, it’s probably redundant to have Warthen and Conti at the big-league level — and I’m hoping he’ll accept a reassignment and work with the Mets’ young prospects.

As for Luis Aguayo, no one’s sure how or why he was handed the third base coaching job in the first place — he won’t be missed. Tony Bernazard will likely make sure his countryman is placed in a position in the lower ranks where he can succeed.

Randy Niemann’s return to the big club is not a shocker, but intriguing. One of his main jobs was rehabilitating pitchers after injuries — and has been given high marks for his work in that role. I’m curious to know if Niemann will be working with John Maine over the winter. Maybe part of Niemann being promoted has to do with keeping an eye on Maine — who I maintain MUST correct his mechanics to avoid another injury.

Razor Shines should be a fun addition to the coaching squad. Besides having a great baseball name, he was a legend in the minors — a real-life Crash Davis in AAA during the 1980s. From all reports, he’s a great guy who has earned this promotion to the bigs. Though he’s won over 500 games as a minor league manager, he has never been seriously considered for a big-league job.

The return of the Alomars is fine with me — they seem to be good guys and they know baseball. Sandy Jr. in particular appeared to have a positive effect on the catching corps. In addition, they’re both harmless, and non-threatening.

There’s an interesting detail regarding the staff thus far — not one of the coaches would be seriously considered as a replacement to Manuel anytime soon. The one guy who might be considered would be Ken Oberkfell, who, if he remains in the Mets organization, will be back in AAA. Don’t be surprised if Obie takes a big league job with someone such as St. Louis, where he could be groomed as an eventual replacement to Tony LaRussa.

I’m not sure what to think about the 2009 coaching staff. On the one hand, I love Hojo, like the Alomars, Warthen, and Niemann, and believe I’ll like Shines (how can you NOT like a guy named Razor Shines?). On the other hand, most of this staff has witnessed one or two collapses, and only Hojo has a World Series ring. The playing roster is devoid of Champions — except for Luis Castillo, the one guy everyone wants to jettison — and the coaching staff (including the manager) also has not tasted the Champagne. Maybe that means nothing, or maybe it means everything. Willie Randolph had a few rings, and he had four coaches on his staff with World Series rings. That staff did lead the Mets to their last postseason appearance, but perhaps it was just a coincidence.

Bottom line is this: key leaders of the last two collapses have been retained, which suggests that the blame is put squarely on the shoulders of the players. If that suggestion holds true, we should expect to see a significant roster turnover, as hinted at by COO Jeff Wilpon earlier in the week.

“I think we’re gonna be active in trying to remake our roster. I think I said at a time that I wanna be uh, some addition by subtraction, and I think that will happen. Whether that happens by free agency or more to the fact from some trades.”

Before you hope “addition by subtraction” means dumping Aaron Heilman, Luis Castillo, and most of the bullpen, understand that the Mets do not have a very good history of dumping salaries — further, their history is littered with trading players when their value is lowest. The organization as it is currently constructed cannot move forward by continuing this ugly tradition — there are too few trading chips available to make deals simply to rid the roster of underperforming veterans. With so little help coming from the farm system, every deal made has to have a positive impact on the 25-man roster.

Simple economics — buy low, sell high — is similar if not identical to baseball operations. And the Mets have a lot of “lows” right now, which suggests the best plan is to hold onto those lows and hope they gain value again. The time to trade guys is not after they’ve stunk up the joint, but before.

In order to dump Castillo, the Mets are likely going to have to eat some of his salary, include someone valuable in the deal, and/or take on a similarly awful contract. I can’t wait to see the creativity Omar Minaya shows in pulling this off without further hamstringing the roster — though most fans are confident he can do it. But guess what? No one wants Castillo — not even for free. The Mets will have to take on someone else’s garbage — think: Juan Pierre and his FOUR-year contract. Not to mention that the Mets will then have a huge hole at second base, where Dan Murphy doesn’t fit and Argenis Reyes doesn’t project as an everyday player. If the Mets are able to bring in Orlando Hudson for something other than an astronomical contract, great, but if they don’t, who are the alternatives? Mark Grudzielanek? Ray Durham? Felipe Lopez? Nick Punto? Suddenly, holding on to Castillo doesn’t seem so bad.

Similarly, trading Aaron Heilman makes little sense, as he is still affordable and under control, young enough to make a comeback, but won’t return nearly his value in a trade. Remember Heath Bell? Matt Lindstrom? Dan Wheeler? Paul Wilson? Jason Isringhausen? Paul Byrd? All were pitchers with talent, coming off an underperforming season, but still very cheap and young enough to turn things around. But the Mets gave each of them away for garbage, only to see them prosper elsewhere.

So who do the Mets trade? Looking up and down the roster, there isn’t much of value to other teams. And that’s a major problem — nearly every player in the organization has more value to the Mets than to any other team. For example, even though Mets fans think Dan Murphy is the second coming of Wade Boggs, the fact is, other teams are not sold on Murphy’s first 130 at-bats as an indication of his future. Likewise, you won’t find anyone not affiliated with the Mets who thinks Jon Niese is the next Sandy Koufax, or that Bobby Parnell is a can’t-miss. These are the Mets’ three best young trade chips, but it would take all three of them in one deal to land a decent Major League veteran. Not an All-Star. Which is why I think it’s hilarious that a poll on MetsBlog asked “would you trade Niese or Parnell and Murphy for Jake Peavy”? Are you kidding? In a second! Yet astoundingly, 41% of respondents said “no”. The joke, of course, is that all three of those young men would be a START in trading negotiations. It would likely take someone along the lines of John Maine or Ryan Church to be included with them for the Padres to answer the phone.

So again, who are the trading chips? (Funny, we were asking the same question this time last year!) Will the Mets pick up Carlos Delgado’s option and then trade him? Probably not, as a replacement would be very expensive (Mark Teixeira) or underwhelming (Nick Evans, Kevin Millar). Wright, Reyes, and Santana are going nowhere. If John Maine was available, he also would be undervalued due to his shoulder injury. I already proposed Beltran in a deal and was nearly lynched for it. Ryan Church has some value, but again, his health is a question mark — dealing him for equal value would be more difficult than when the Mets had Mike Cameron on the block. Same with Ramon Castro, who has battled injuries as a second-stringer for three years. Brian Schneider won’t bring back much, and the Mets don’t have anyone to replace him.

It seems the only place the Mets might be able to subtract from is the bullpen. Again, though, they’d be selling low. Maybe Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis have some value as lefthanded specialists, but are they really that much better than any LOOGYs that are available via free agency? Joe Smith is the best chip the Mets have, but it wouldn’t make sense to deal away arguably their best reliever — especially when he’s only 24 and under control for several more years. You want to dump Duaner Sanchez? Great, but there we are again with the health issues — a team would expect to get him for a bargain.

You can argue that putting together a package of these underperformers can bring back something of value. Maybe, but it’s doubtful. If you were an opposing GM, what would you offer in return for Scott Schoeneweis, Aaron Heilman, and Duaner Sanchez? A borderline second base prospect toiling in AA?

Still, Jeff Wilpon is right — there WILL be a remake of the roster. But that’s because half the team will be leaving via free agency. Here’s the list of potential free agents:

Luis Ayala
Tony Armas
Nelson Figueroa
Orlando Hernandez
Pedro Martinez
Brandon Knight
Oliver Perez
Ricardo Rincon
Matt Wise
Moises Alou
Damion Easley
Jose Valentin
Endy Chavez
Fernando Tatis
Trot Nixon
Brady Clark

I left Delgado off the list because it’s all but a certainty he returns. I’m not sure about Brian Stokes, Robinson Cancel, Gus Molina, Angel Pagan and some others who may be eligible for arbitration. You can laugh about most of the men on this list, but there’s 16 players there who were on the 25-man roster at some point. Subtract Ambiorix Burgos from the organization, for obvious reasons. Again, it doesn’t seem like a big deal, but Burgos was a young relief pitcher with MLB closing experience and a 97+MPH fastball — something the Mets would seem to covet right now. With Burgos in jail, the Mets need to find a young fireballer to take his place. Can they get one in return for Scott Schoeneweis? Doubtful.

How many of those free agents (and arbitration-eligible players) the Mets keep will be interesting to follow. Does “subtraction” mean Ollie Perez walks? Pedro wanders away? Damion Easley takes a hike? Would those subtractions equal addition?

It’s going to be a long, fascinating winter. We’ll watch and discuss every move here.

Mets will remain on WFAN
Yee ha. However Mike Francesa will continue to talk about the Yankees every afternoon.

On the 2008 collapse,

“… I thought we showed more fight and more comeback this year, which I thought was lacking down the stretch last year … I did think we did better this year than last year.”

Funny, I thought it was just as bad, no matter which way you look at it. The Mets were in first place in early September, and blew not only the division, but the wild card as well. And they lost the wild card spot to a team — the Brewers — who were so dead and desperate that they fired their manager with ten days left in the season.

To refresh Jeff’s memory — as well as everyone else’s — in the last ten games of 2007, the Mets went 4-6. In the last ten games of 2008, the Mets went 4-6.

On Jerry Manuel:

“… we have great confidence in Omar’s leadership, and Omar felt that Jerry was the best guy to lead this team to the postseason.”

“I like everything about him … his leadership helped turned us around from where he had been … so I think that success is something that needed to be rewarded.

Interesting that Wilpon would make it clear that Manuel was Omar’s choice. Is that a means of empowering Minaya, or throwing him under the bus if things don’t work out next year? For those who forgot, Jeff Wilpon was similarly sly with his “endorsement” of the Willie Randolph hiring. In the end, it was discovered that Wilpon never wanted Randolph as manager — and we saw that Willie never had full support from ownership on down. Could Manuel be facing a similarly difficult situation?

On obtaining Manny Ramirez

“Omar did not come out and say we have to go out and get Manny Ramirez …. it wasn’t one of the pieces we thought we needed, we needed bullpen help.”

Francesa asked, “Would you have been opposed to Manny Ramirez?”

“(hesitation) uhhhhh … if Omar wanted him, and the baseball staff suggested it, we follow their direction most of the time. You’ll have to ask Omar why he didn’t go after him.”

Hmm … why wouldn’t Omar go after Manny? I guess we’ll have to ask him next time he’s a guest of MetsToday. Wilpon’s second answer began with a tinge of leeriness … making me think that perhaps Omar KNEW BETTER than to ask about bringing in Manny.

On the offseason and free agent market

“I think we’re gonna be active in trying to remake our roster. I think I said at a time that I wanna be uh, some addition by subtraction, and I think that will happen. Whether that happens by free agency or more to the fact from some trades.”

I won’t get on Jeff for his strange grammar, since I was bull-whipped the last time I criticized a Met for incoherent quotes. I don’t want his high school english teachers reigning down on me for making fun of a guy just because he didn’t have the benefit of an ivy league education.

Fascinating, though, that he says there will be a makeover. We’ll discuss it in more detail in the next post.

Wilpon’s message to the Mets fans

“ooh … our goal is to create a world-class experience for our fans and for the new Citi Field, regardless of the outcome of the game. Clearly though we want to field a championship team and make the make the changes to get that done. … we will leave no stone unturned in terms of getting us back to where we need to.”

Great. So once again the goal is to sell as many tickets as possible. We know this — that baseball is a business — but as fans we don’t really want to hear it. We’d like to have an owner like George Steinbrenner, who demands success at every level of the organization. But there’s only one George.

It was good, though, to hear that they will “leave no stone unturned” — meaning, I suppose, they’ll evaluate every aspect of the organization. So far, the effects of the evaluation have rewarded Minaya with a 3-year extension, Manuel with a 3-year contract, and renewals for Dan Warthen and Howard Johnson. Tony Bernazard will be back too. Carlos Delgado reportedly will return as well. The rest remains to be seen over the next few months.

Toward that end, if you are not looking forward to watching the “fightin’ Phils” this week, but would like to be entertained by our National Pastime, you have the option of viewing the first eight episodes of “Playing for Peanuts”.

Hmm …. watch Wally Backman and a group of scrappy overachievers … or Pat Burrell, Cole Hamels, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and co.?

Seems to be a no-brainer ….

Playing for Peanuts, episodes 1.1 – 2.4

It DOES involve some sacrifice on the Mets’ part, but it doesn’t include any of their “untouchables”. In fact, the trade wouldn’t include any minor leaguers whatsoever. All big leaguers, going both ways.

This deal would also require that the Mets be willing to gamble on a few things. But then, isn’t any trade a gamble?

Oh there’s one other caveat — there has to be truth to the rumor that the Dodgers are looking to deal Russell Martin, as reported by Joel Sherman:

You want a surprise name that could end up out on the trade market? How about Dodgers catcher Russell Martin? Rival executives say the Dodgers are not overly enamored with his makeup and at a time when front-line catchers are hard to find, Los Angeles could decide to see what his value is.

Heck, if I’m the Mets, I’m making a phone call. Young all-star-caliber catchers are few and far between, and becoming rarer every year. The Mets have little in the way of catching prospects in their organization, save for 18-year-old Francisco Pena, who is still very far from MLB.

So here goes my proposition for a mega-deal with the Dodgers:

Mets trade: Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, and Brian Schneider

Dodgers return: Russell Martin, Brad Penny, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and Cory Wade.

Why the Mets do it:
Number one, to trade Beltran when his value will never be higher, and get in return a two-way catcher. While everyone talks about how impossible it is to find an offensive-minded centerfielder with tools like Beltran, it’s even more rare to find a catcher who can both catch and hit — and is only 25.

Number two, the Mets are desperate for a frontline starter who can back up Johan Santana and keep the pressure off Mike Pelfrey. Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez are likely to depart via free agency, and there’s no guarantee that John Maine will come back healthy and effective after shoulder surgery and an inconsistent 2008. Penny has the potential to dominate, and will be motivated by pitching in his walk year. Yes he had a lousy 2008, but he knows that another 16-win season will earn him a huge payday next winter. Remember Mike Hampton?

Number three, in Jones the Mets get a centerfielder with the skillset to replace Beltran both in the field and at bat. Like Penny, he had a lousy 2008 but I’m betting he’s the 2009 Comeback Player of the Year. And if he really is a .158 hitter from now on, Pierre is insurance.

Number four, the Mets rid themselves of Castillo. And fifth, they get a young, bright-looking middle reliever in Wade, who will help in the bullpen right away.

Why the Dodgers do it:
First, they get Beltran, the best all-around centerfielder in baseball, to play between young stars Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp and provide some of the offensive firepower lost when Manny Ramirez walks. Second, they get something in return for Penny, rather than declining his option and losing him for nothing. Third, they dump Jones’ $15M contract for ‘09. Fourth, they get a fine receiver in Schneider, who will be a stopgap while they figure out what to do in the future at the position. Finally, they get a veteran second baseman to fill in for Jeff Kent, who is expected to leave via free agency.

Yeah, yeah, I know, I know — Jones is no lock to go back to being a star centerfielder, and his .158 average is quite scary. But you have to think of the deal as being more of Beltran for Martin and Pierre, and figuring that one of Jones or Penny are going to do an about-face. Think of it this way: would you rather hope that Luis Castillo can be a singles-hitting .300 hitter again, or that Jones can be a 30-HR, MVP centerfielder with the potential to carry a team all by himself? Jones can’t be that bad again — he simply can’t. And like Penny, he’ll be performing in a walk year. It’s amazing how much of a motivating factor that can be, especially for players in their early 30s.

Don’t worry, this proposal has not one nugget of truth behind it, and there’s no way the Mets make such a deal — they don’t have the chutzpah to pull it off. At the same time, I refuse to take responsibility if this trade idea gets picked up by ESPN.com and finds its way to airwaves as legitimate “buzz” … I’ve seen similar speculation reported as rumor recently.