The Phils sent JA Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar to Houston in exchange for Roy Oswalt and a considerable amount of cash — the Astros will be picking up about half of the $22M left on Oswalt’s contract.

This gives the Phillies a starting rotation that starts with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels — not too shabby.

Meanwhile, the Mets did nothing — and why would they? After a full day of meetings on Monday, they came to the conclusion that the team is just fine the way it is, with enough talent to get into the playoffs. They proved that beyond a measure of doubt by taking two of three from the Cardinals in their first series after the pow-wow.

Everyone criticizing the Phillies for this deal claims that Oswalt is old and stinks. Let’s hope that’s the case. And let’s hope he’s not one of the top ten pitchers in the NL (WHIP and Ks aren’t really indicative of a pitcher’s value, right?). Though, pitching isn’t everything in baseball — you still have to score runs. And we know the Phillies struggle mightily offensively.

If nothing else, this trade sort of fulfills at least one of my predictions from this year — though, it does appear Jayson Werth is still in Philadelphia. One out of three ain’t bad, right?

In other news, the Marlins jettisoned Met-killer Jorge Cantu to Texas, the Orioles sent Miguel Tejada to San Diego, and the Nationals traded Matt Capps to Minnesota for young catcher Wilson Ramos.

I wonder if the Mets considered acquiring Tejada to play 2B? That’s really the only position where the Mets had an opportunity to upgrade. He was playing third in Baltimore, and likely will do the same for the Padres, moving Chase Headley to the outfield.

The consensus, in a nutshell, is that the deal is reminiscent of a cross between the Dutch’s purchase of New York City from the Native Americans and the infamous Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano mind-boggler six years ago. In other words, to put it euphemistically, the Diamondbacks got the raw end of the stick here.

What would an equivalent trade with the Mets look like? Mike Pelfrey would probably be a good starting point in place of Joe Saunders. I know, I first rejected this notion, in part because Pelfrey is, indeed, a better pitcher than Saunders.

Mets fans, however, were also probably deluded by Pelfrey’s flirtation with dominance earlier this year. The comparison is more legitimate than most people think. For one, I compiled their numbers and calculated their FIP over the last three years:

Pelfrey:

504.1 IP

262 SO

176 BB

37 HR’s

FIP: 4.16

Saunders:

504.2 IP

268 SO

162 BB

64 HR’s

FIP: 4.75

As you can see, their innings pitched, strikeouts, and walks, are all frighteningly similar. Even their ground ball rate is very close- Pelfrey’s usually around 50%, and Saunders is closer to 45%.

The glaring discrepancy, obviously, is the number of dingers allowed. Pelfrey’s HR/9 rate over the last three years is an excellent .66, while Saunders is a whooping 1.27. Of course, Pelfrey’s had the advantage of pitching in favorable parks such as Shea Stadium and Citi Field the majority of his career. His career HR/9 rate is .89 on the road and .55 at home. Maybe that is just a sample size mirage and he is due for some regression, but Pelfrey’s been around for some time now; he has made 56 starts and thrown 345.2 innings at home, and has 44 starts and 252.2 innings on the road.

It’s not like Saunders has been unlucky, though. His HR/FB rate is actually 10.3%, below the typical 11-12% average. Saunders is a less productive pitcher than Mike Pelfrey, because he allows more home runs, plain and simple.

If you are a fan of XFIP, which adjusts for HR/FB rate (assumes the pitcher is average), Pelfrey’s xFIP is 4.46, and Saunders’ is 4.8. One thing I will note is that Pelfrey’s kept his HR/FB rate down for his entire career, which I would expect is more a function of Shea Stadium and Citi Field than luck in itself.  This means Pelfrey can probably maintain his low HR/FB rate so long as he remains a Met, and his FIP is the best gauge of his future worth to the team. Further, if he did leave the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field, his ERA should not be expected to rise much more than his xFIP suggest.

Going by XFIP, Saunders is a high-end fifth starter, Pelfrey a solid, if unspectacular fourth. Going by FIP, Saunders is once again a top-notch fifth starter, but Pelfrey’s about an average number three starter.

Regardless of what stat you favor, Pelfrey’s only about a half run better of ERA better than Saunders, probably even less. I am not sure what that works out to in terms of WAR, but looking over similar examples, the difference is more or less just a half-win. That is only about $2-$2.5 million per year in monetary value.

For better or worse, Saunders (29) is three years older than Pelfrey (26). But Saunders’ perceived value is higher for several reasons. He is left-handed, and the switch to the National League should at least slightly improve his stats. Plus, Pelfrey’s in the midst of a so-called “dead-arm” phase, which does not help his trade value.

How do the Mets stack up in terms of matching prospects? Skaggs, in a nutshell, embodies all the risks and rewards of a promising 19 year-old pitcher in A-Ball; Corbin that of a 21 year-old in advanced-A ball, although it does not sound like he has much of a high ceiling. Rodriguez is a meaningless throw-in.

If this were 2009, Kyle Allen and Jeurys Familia would be an awesomely fitting comparison. That is not the case this year, but because Pelfrey is the centerpiece of our hypothetical trade we can slack on prospects. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and either Robert Carson or Familia would probably fit the bill.

None of it really seems to matter. Not because it’s all hypothetical, but I feel like I am picking at straws, so to speak. We are talking Dan Haren. He is 29, under contract at an affordable rate for three more years, and a flat-out stud. The D-Backs could have had Ike Davis or Fernando Martinez for all I care.

It’s easy to blame Omar Minaya and co. for not being aggressive - and probably ignorant of the fact Haren’s 4.6 ERA is the product of bad luck. By that, standard, however, we probably have to accuse at least a half-dozen other teams of the same offense. I just do not get it.

Here’s the breakdown from the always highly recommended ROTOWORLD:

Blue Jays acquired SS Yunel Escobar and LHP Jo-Jo Reyes from the Braves for SS Alex Gonzalez, LHP Tim Collins and INF Tyler Pastronicky.

BLUE JAYS RECEIVE:

Yunel Escobar
Escobar is an incredibly frustrating talent, but we can’t help but think that the Braves sold incredibly low here. It was only months ago that he was regarded as one of the top young shortstops in the game. The 27-year-old batted just .238/.334/.284 with zero homers and 19 RBI during the first half, but this is a worthwhile gamble for Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos. Under team control through 2013, the Jays have plenty of time to see if he can match his potential.

Jo-Jo Reyes
Reyes has a 5.70 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) with Triple-A Gwinnett this season, though he has averaged 9.5 K/9. The 25-year-old left-hander made one appearance this season with the Braves on April 12, giving up nine runs over 3 1/3 innings. The AL East probably isn’t the best place for him, but there’s still No. 4 starter upside here.

BRAVES RECEIVE:

Alex Gonzalez
In a bold move, Gonzalez will replace Yunel Escobar as the Braves’ starting shortstop. The 33-year-old batted .259/.296/.497 with 17 homers and 50 RBI during the first half, though we’d be shocked if he can maintain this pace in the National League. The Braves are going to sell this trade on Gonzalez’s veteran presence and steady glove, but that won’t change the fact that he has only walked in 4.9 percent of his at-bats this season and has a .294 career on-base percentage. Gonzalez will make roughly $1.2 million for the rest of this season. His contract includes a 2.5 million club option for 2011, but this sounds more like the move of a club who is gearing up for short-term stability over long-term potential.

Tim Collins
Collins has a 2.40 ERA in parts of four seasons in the minor leagues. Working in relief with Double-A New Hampshire this season, the 20-year-old southpaw has a 2.51 ERA in 35 appearances, averaging an eye-popping 15.3 K/9 over 43 innings. Checking in at 5-foot-7 and 155 pounds, Collins was ranked as the Blue Jays’ No. 19 prospect by Baseball America over the winter.

Tyler Pastronicky
Pastronicky, a former fifth-round pick in 2008, has a .264/.340/.355 batting line over parts of three seasons in the minor leagues. A right-handed hitter, the 20-year-old has batted .258/.348/.376 with six homers, 35 RBI and seven stolen bases for High-A Dunedin this season, splitting time between shortstop and second base. He’s not going to hit for much power, but with his speed, he could make for a useful utility infielder someday. Pastronicky was ranked as the Jays’ No. 17 prospect by Baseball America before the season.

Some may say it is because the Mets “didn’t need” to make a big deal in any July going back to 2005 (ha!). Others suggest that Minaya was being “smart” by holding onto the Mets’ “top” prospects and not giving in to the high demands of a deadline deal. Either of those arguments have credence. But the real reason is much simpler: the Mets simply haven’t, and still do not have, the chips to offer in a trade for a big-name, impact player at the trading deadline. In 2006, they had to give up their starting rightfielder — and in turn, creating a hole in the lineup — because there was no one else in the organization they could afford to give up, and had value to another team in a deadline deal.

Before Minaya was forced by a cab driver into trading Xavier Nady for Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez in July 2006, the Mets were desperate for a starting pitcher, and possibly a corner outfielder. But trading for one was never a consideration, because the Mets were running away with the NL East, and on the way toward playing “meaningful games in September”. So what if their rotation was in shambles, starting the likes of the late Jose Lima? They’d worry about that when they got to the playoffs.

In July 2006 and every July thereafter, the Mets were in dire need of one or two impact pieces to transform themselves from a team that play meaningful September games to one that was a near-guarantee to make the postseason.

Back in 2006, the Mets’ top prospect was Lastings Milledge, but they couldn’t part with him because he was the ONLY MLB-ready youngster they had. Further, they’d likely be “selling low” on him because his development was stunted by injuries. The rest of their “top prospects” were in the low minor leagues — mostly, 17-21-year-olds, the bulk of which who were international signees. So when Nady was traded away, and the team was desperate for a corner outfielder (remember, Cliff Floyd was hobbling around on one leg) as well as another reliever, the best they could do was pick up Shawn Green in a salary-dump move by the Diamondbacks and a juiced-up Guillermo Mota in a similar waiver deal.

(Tell me if any of this sounds eerily familiar — even if you don’t vividly remember 2006. For example, take a look at the Mets’ current farm system and tell me where the prospects are. Funny, isn’t it? Four years later and it’s like time has stood still.)

Each year after, the story was the same, for one reason or another. In 2007, the Mets were again doing well but were in glaring need of a top-of-the-rotation starter, a bat (Moises Alou was hurt), and at least one reliever. They acquired none — though they did make a very low-risk trade for Luis Castillo. You may remember how that season ended … you may also remember how the Mets made the trade they needed to make 7 months late, when they emptied the farm for Johan Santana.

And because they emptied the farm for Santana, they had no chips to trade when the deadline rolled around in July 2008. Yet, the Mets still were shy at least one bat — unless you believed that Fernando Tatis was going to continue to hit like Roy Hobbs after July — and at least one bullpen arm. Again, they acquired neither — not until Billy Wagner blew out his elbow and the Mets made yet another low-risk deal in trading for Luis Ayala. No Manny Ramirez, no Jason Bay, no Junior Griffey … heck, they didn’t even have enough on the farm to bring back Xavier Nady.

We all agree that 2009 was a lost season, but you may have forgotten that in July, both Mets management and most fans felt the team was still “in it”. There was some buzz that maybe the Mets could make a deal here or there to patch holes while we waited for “the cavalry” to return from the DL. But, again, the Mets didn’t have the chips necessary to make a deal — partly because a chunk of their shallow stock was sent to Seattle in the J.J. Putz deal.

So here we are, once again, with July approaching and the Mets in need of a puzzle piece. And yet again, the Mets don’t have chips to trade.

I keep getting pushback when I suggest that the Mets will need to include Jon Niese in a deal for a frontline starter like Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, or Dan Haren. OK, fine — then tell me WHO instead, the Mets can give up? You have to give up something to get something, and when I look at the Mets’ top two minor league squads — Binghamton and Buffalo — I see nothing. Do you really believe the M’s, D’Backs, or ‘Stros are going to get excited about Dillon Gee or Josh Thole? Tobi Stoner and Lucas Duda? Get real.

The Mets’ top prospects are probably Jenrry Mejia, Fernando Martinez, and Reese Havens. Fans don’t want to see Mejia leave, either, and F-Mart’s value is at an all-time low because he can’t stay healthy. Havens has similar issues staying on the field. People like to mention Bradley Holt, but he has been a disaster this year, with an ERA over 10. The next name I hear is Jeurys Familia but guess what? He’s struggling nearly as badly as Bradley. Who’s next? Kirk Nieuwenhuis? Tell you what: put ALL of those names together and you’re still not likely to get a callback from Jack Zduriencik, Ed Wade, or Josh Byrnes. GMs trading top-notch starting pitchers want in return at least one player/pitcher who is ready to step in and play at the MLB level right now. Not one of those names fits that descriptor.

To make clear, I’m not talking about a trade for Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Kevin Millwood, or similar individuals at an inferior level. I’m talking BIG names — those who are certain to make an impact on the pennant race.

Strange, isn’t it, that after five years, despite constant insistence to the contrary from Mets management, the organization remains lacking in talent at high-A through AAA, and devoid of legitimate prospects. Further, all they have to show for it is Johan Santana. One wonders if the Mets will EVER have a farm system that produces a genuine depth of MLB prospects — who can help the big club as players and/or as trading chips.

I’m not sure what exactly this means, mainly because I don’t own (nor can I find online) an official guide to MLB rules regarding waivers, the “end” of the season, “designated for assignment”, and players to be named later.

What I do know is that once a player is “designated for assignment”, his team has ten days to trade, release, or waive him. I *think* Carter would have to clear waivers before being traded to the Mets — otherwise this move would’ve been made weeks ago. I’m also not sure how the “ten days” figures in, considering that the regular season ends before then. I *think* that the ten days can include the postseason — and run right through the World Series and perhaps a few days after the last game of the WS.

I’m going to take a wild stab and guess that Carter will now be subjected to irrevocable waivers — meaning if he’s claimed, the Bosox can’t pull him back. But since they’re irrevocable, I don’t believe the claiming team has to give up anything in return — so the “trade” part of the DFA doesn’t apply.

Further, if no teams claim Carter before the Mets get their chance, does that mean the deal is complete when/if the Mets do claim him?

If you can find an official link explaining what can happen here, or if you are a licensed MLB agent, please comment below.

This afternoon I received an email from the Southern League announcing that Ezequiel Carrera of the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx had won the batting crown.

I’m thinking … “hey, that name sounds familiar!”. Of course it does — Carrera was one of the two dozen players traded by the Mets for Sean Green last winter.

The speedy centerfielder finished the year with a .337 AVG, and also led the league in on-base percentage with a .441 clip. The 22-year-old Venezuelan native also stole 27 bases.

Of course, the Mets are set in centerfield through 2011 with Carlos Beltran, so if the Mets held on to Carrera he wouldn’t have a shot to make the club until he was at least 24 years old. And even then, there’s a good chance Jose Reyes will still be around to man the leadoff spot.

Further, anything can happen between now and then. Carrera’s batting crown is for the Southern League, which is AA ball. Some players can make the jump from there to the bigs but Carrera will likely have to prove himself for at least another year — either by repeating AA or in AAA next season. And truth be told, Carrera is a slap hitter with speed and a good glove — along the lines of a Luis Castillo. In other words, not a potential superstar. Still, thought you’d be interested to see how a former property of the New York Mets performed this year.

In case you missed it:

On Saturday, the Red Sox sent to the Mets one of the two players to be named later in the Billy Wagner deal: minor league first baseman Eddie Lora. I wonder if this announcement was made on the Saturday before Labor Day specifically to get it buried in the media, and to avoid backlash in the blogosphere — since most fans were too busy at barbecues to care what was going on in Metsland.

But then, I’m a conspiracy theorist.

In any case, there you have it: the Mets get Lora now and most likely Chris Carter after the season.

Lora is a 20-year-old born in New York City but officially Dominican who stands 6’2″, weighs 230 lbs., hits from both sides of the plate, throws left, and plays first base. He’s hitting .222 through 34 games in rookie ball for the GCL Red Sox. He batted .300 last year with 5 HR in 120 at-bats for the Dominican Summer League Red Sox in 2008. The scouting report says he has a “great frame” with “high power potential” but that “he strikes out far too much”.

Before you get all crazy over his .222 batting average, remember it’s a very small sample and he’s only 20 years old. The key thing here is to compare Lora to what the Mets might have obtained had they offered Wagner arbitration, he signed elsewhere, and thereby netted the Mets two picks in next year’s June draft.

It’s possible they would have drafted a raw kid with power potential out of high school or junior college in the first two rounds. Who is a comp, I have no idea because I’m not up on the amateur prospects. What is almost a certainty is that they would not have drafted both a raw 20-year-old AND a replacement-level player who could step in and compete for first base and/or left field in 2010 — and that is essentially what they will get out of Chris Carter (assuming he is the other PTBNL). So in the end is it a good deal for the Mets? Hard to say.

On the one hand, two draft picks might have more bottled potential for the future. On the other hand, the Mets will have an MLB-ready player competing in spring training, and have a strapping slugger, in their organization right now. Considering the dearth of power hitters in the Mets’ farm system, Lora is a welcome addition.

We won’t know how “good” this deal turns out for the Mets for at least a year, likely more. In the meantime we can only put our trust in the scouts who saw and recommended these two first basemen.

Yesterday we looked at the Mets’ trade with the Seattle Mariners last December, and became collectively ill over the fact that seven players were traded away for what could essentially turn out to be Sean Green. Nothing against Green, but that trade is typical of Omar Minaya’s dealings over the past four years. Though you can’t expect every trade to turn out great, you also can’t consistently empty your organization for assets that provide zero return. The below one-way, dead-end deals are part of the reason the Mets’ organization is barren at the upper levels.

You may judge these deals on their success in terms of how the players obtained performed for the Mets, but that’s not the entire point. Moreover, it’s the fact that so many of these deals brought in players who either retired, were released, non-tendered, or left as free-agents — leaving the Mets nothing in return.

Note: these are assembled in no particular order. They represent most, but not all, of the trades made during Omar Minaya’s reign as GM.

Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider
Schneider will be a free agent after this season. Church was dealt for Jeff Francoeur, who may be non-tendered this winter. Milledge was eventually flipped to the Pirates along with Joel Hanrahan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett.

Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana
It remains to be seen whether Santana will ever be sent away for more assets; but it appears as though the trade will turn out to be a fair one for both sides. Most likely, another dead-end deal for the Mets, but when the one-way street is Johan Santana, you don’t mind going down it so much.

Jose Castro and Sean Henry for Jeff Conine
Conine retired after the 2007 season. Castro and Henry make up two-thirds of the Carolina Mudcats’ (Reds AA) outfield.

Brian Bannister for Ambiorix Burgos
Burgos was let go after Tommy John surgery, beating up his girlfriend, and running over two women with his SUV. Bannister has been in the Royals’ starting rotation for the past three years.

Heath Bell and Royce Ring for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins
Adkins and Johnson both left as free agents. Ring was flipped to the Braves for two other pitchers. Bell was a successful setup man for San Diego before becoming their full-time closer this season.

Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens for Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick
Vargas was part of the Seattle trade we analyzed yesterday. Bostick still has a shot to make the Mets, possibly as a LOOGY — he may get an audition in September. Both Lindstrom and Owens have served as closer and setup man for the Marlins, though Owens is currently recovering from an arm injury.

Evan MacLane for Shawn Green
Green played a full season and a month for the Mets before retiring. MacLane was traded in April by the Diamondbacks to the Cardinals for future considerations, and is currently part of the starting rotation for the AAA Memphis Redbirds.

Jeff Keppinger for Ruben Gotay
Gotay was eventually put on waivers and claimed by the Braves. Keppinger was traded by the Royals to the Reds for minor league pitcher Russ Haltiwanger. Haltiwanger spent two years in A ball before being plucked by the Cardinals in the Rule 5 draft; he was released in March. Keppinger played two years for the Reds before being traded to the Astros this past March for a PTBNL.

Anderson Hernandez for Luis Ayala
Ayala left as a free agent last winter. Hernandez was traded back to the Mets for minor league infielder Greg Veloz. You may remember that AHern was originally acquired from the Tigers for Vance Wilson, way back in January 2005.

Drew Butera and Dustin Martin for Luis Castillo
Castillo became a free agent and was re-signed to a 4-year, $25M contract — I don’t know how you judge this one, since, technically, the Mets “lost” Castillo to free agency. Butera, a catcher, is on the Twins’ 40-man roster; both he and Martin are toiling for the Twins’ AAA Rochester Red Wings.

Mike Jacobs, Yusmeiro Petit, and Grant Psomas for Carlos Delgado
Delgado will likely leave this winter as a free-agent — leaving the Mets nothing. Jacobs was eventually traded to the Royals for Leo Nunez. Petit was traded to the Diamondbacks for Jorge Julio, who was traded for Byung-Hyun Kim, who was eventually waived back the the D-Backs. The 24-year-old Petit has made 14 starts for Arizona this year. Psomas made it as high as AAA but is now in the Frontier League, playing for the Washington Wild Things.

Dante Brinkley and Gaby Hernandez for Paul LoDuca
LoDuca left as a free agent after the 2007 season (prompting the trade of Milledge for Schneider and Church). Hernandez was eventually traded to Seattle for Arthur Rhodes. Brinkley spent a few years in A ball before being released.

Doug Mientkiewicz for Ian Bladergroen
Mientkiewicz escaped via free agency. Bladergroen spent several years in the Bosox organization before leaving as a minor league free agent.

Mike Stanton for Felix Heredia
Heredia pitched three games, busted his elbow, and left as a free agent. Stanton threw half a season for the Yankees before being released.

Jason Phillips for Kaz Ishii
Ishii was released. Phillips was eventually let go by the Dodgers as well.

Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady
Nady was eventually traded for Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez, both of whom became free agents. Cameron also eventually left San Diego as a free agent.

Xavier Nady for Oliver Perez and Roberto Hernandez
As you just read, Perez and Hernandez eventually became free agents. Nady was eventually traded with Damaso Marte to the Yankees for Daniel McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, and Ross Ohlendorf.

Jae Seo and Tim Hamulack for Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll
Sanchez and Schmoll were both eventually released. Seo was traded to the Devil Rays, along with Dioner Navarro, for Mark Hendrickson and Toby Hall.

Kris Benson for Jorge Julio and John Maine
Julio was eventually flipped for Orlando Hernandez, who eventually became a free agent. Maine will likely be non-tendered this winter. Benson was eventually granted free agency.

Conclusion

I saved those last few deals for last. Omar Minaya received — and deserved — much credit for the deals that brought in Nady, Sanchez, Maine, El Duque, and Perez. Three years later, though, it boils down to this: the Mets got El Duque, Duaner Sanchez, Oliver Perez, and John Maine, but they sent away, among others, Xavier Nady. In the meantime there was an NL East championship, about five combined seasons lost to injury (adding up the DL time of those three pitchers) and close to $50M paid out to the acquired arms.

Again, the point here is not whether the Mets were fleeced, or fleeced someone else, in a deal. Rather, it’s an evaluation of how many renewable assets the Mets obtained in these deals — meaning, the players they were able to flip in return for more players down the road. The answer is not many. More alarming is the number of players who provided very little service time, in contrast to the players sent away who went on to either perform for several years and/or were traded again for useful assets by their new team.

But maybe this criticism is unfair; I have no idea how well other teams do in respect to trading for players who eventually provide further value down the road. For all I know it’s common for a team to trade for a player who eventually leaves the organization for nothing in return. In any case, you can see from the above that the Mets have sent away a fair number of players in return for a very few. That’s forced them to acquire most of their personnel via free agency — in other words, players cast away from other organizations for one reason or another (except for the handful of “high impact” signings — which cost the Mets not only huge sums of cash but #1 draft picks).

Bottom line? It appears from this angle that it’s time for the Mets to take a new attitude toward trades. Rather than send away several assets for one short-term solution, they may want to begin trading a few valuable veterans in return for large packages. I don’t see any other way they can quickly and efficiently re-stock the organization.

A sickening feeling came over me after again looking at this December, 2008 trade:

Mets trade Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto in return for J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green.

Here’s part one of the analysis:
– Heilman and Smith were somewhere between so-so and mediocre this year, so no big loss on the surface. Though, I bet Heilman would be an interesting option to consider right now in the starting rotation — I’d certainly prefer to see him rather than Tim Redding every five days — and Smith is still only 25.

- Carrera, Carp, and Cleto spent the season in the minors. Cleto took a step back, spending most of the season on the DL. The 21-year-old Carrera is having a nice year in high-A ball, hitting .340 with 25 SBs. Carp wasn’t outstanding, but solid in his first year in AAA — he’s hitting .274 with 15 HR and an .824 OPS. One would assume that Carp would be getting a look at 1B right now if he were still a Met, but there’s no reason to believe he’d be any better than Dan Murphy or Nick Evans.

- Endy Chavez started the year strong, then injured his knee and is out for the year. It’s doubtful he would’ve had any more impact on the team than Jeremy Reed, Angel Pagan, or Cory Sullivan.

- Jason Vargas, healthy for the first time in two years, had a short stint of success in Seattle as a starting pitcher. He’s since been sent down, but considering his age (27), his lefthandedness, and the fact he enjoyed some success in the American League, you could safely say the Mets wouldn’t be unhappy if he was still with the organization.

You can look at that list of seven players and decide for yourself whether any would have made a difference this year, and/or could have an impact in the future. That’s not what bugs me. Rather, the issue to me is that, in the end, it could turn out that those seven players were what the Mets gave up for Sean Green.

After this season, the Mets will have to decide whether to pick up J.J. Putz’s $8.6M option for 2010 or cut him a check for $1M to walk away. Considering that they couldn’t get rid of Billy Wagner fast enough, I’m guessing Putz is a goner. After all, Wags proved to be healthy, and would’ve been $600K cheaper to keep, whereas Putz remains disabled.

In addition, the Mets will have to decide whether or not to offer arbitration to Jeremy Reed. Reed’s current salarly is $925,000, and almost no one ever comes out of arbitration with a lower salary. That said, the Mets will likely cut Reed loose and hang on to Angel Pagan and/or Cory Sullivan, both of whom are paid in the $600K area.

So, two of the players acquired in that December deal are as good as gone, leaving Sean Green.

But this isn’t the only deal that has quickly become a washout. Consider the trade of Lastings Milledge for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. Schneider is a free agent this winter and Church, of course, was traded for Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur is another arbitration-eligible player who may be non-tendered by the Mets.

Looking over the past few years, too many trades have gone this way — where the Mets eventually wind up with nothing. Sure, the Johan Santana deal looks like it’s going to work out, and they did pick up Angel Pagan for next to nothing, but overall, Mets trades are like dead-end streets.

In my next post, we’ll review the vast number of dead-end deals made by the Mets over the past four years.

So far no official word from the Mets, though it could be coming soon.

No word on who the PTBNL will be, either. But since the Red Sox are taking on all of the rest of Wagner’s contract, and presumably agreeing to the lefthander’s demands regarding his option and arbitration, I get the feeling that the players will not be top-10 prospects.

Strange deal for the Red Sox, considering these caveats:

- Wagner can only pitch once every 3 days
- Wagner insisted that his option for next year NOT be picked up, so he can become a free agent
- Wagner also insisted that he not be offered arbitration, so the team who signs him won’t relinquish a draft pick
- The Red Sox are taking on all of the rest of Wagner’s 2009 salary (roughly $2.7M + $1M buyout)

A healthy Wagner who can set up for Jonathan Papelbon 3-4 times a week could be a difference-maker. But a recovering Wagner who can only pitch one or possibly twice a week at most is not likely to have an impact on the stretch run.

Trading Wags means the Mets get his $2.7M off the books plus the $1M buyout that they would have had to pay if they chose not to pick up his $8M option. However, it also means the Mets will need to think long and hard about picking up J.J. Putz’s $8.6M option — if they don’t, then who is the setup man in 2010?

We won’t know how to evaulate this trade until the players coming from Boston are identified; I imagine we won’t hear about them until after the season.

** UPDATE **

Via Twitter, Bart Hubbach of the NY Post suggests that the Mets will receive two AA players, and that the Bosox WILL offer Wags arbitration (and thus get the draft picks when he signs elsewhere). Per Hubbach:

The Mets are getting two AA-level prospects. The Red Sox agreed to decline Wagner’s option but are retaining draft-pick compensation.

The top prospect on the Red Sox AA team (the Portland Sea Dogs) is 22-year-old 1B Lars Anderson, but I doubt they’d give him up for a one-month rental.

** ANOTHER UPDATE **

David Lefort of Boston.com has this to say about the players going to the Mets:

It is not expected that any more than one of the two players the Sox are giving up will come from the 40-man roster, and neither is considered an upper-tier prospect.

Translation: the Mets are likely to receive filler material. I’m betting on RHP Bryce Cox and catcher Juan Apodaca. Time will tell.

But finally, the Mets have acquired the big-bodied, power-hitting left fielder they’ve needed since admitting Moises Alou to a nursing home: Jason Dubois.

What do you mean, “who the heck is Jason Dubois?” Doesn’t anyone read Baseball America?

For the uninformed and the ignorant, Jason Dubois is a 6’5″, 225-pound outfielder who once slugged 31 homeruns in a minor league season (2004). He’s been hidden in the Chicago Cubs’ system for 8 of his 9 years in the minors, unable to leapfrog over the Calvin Murrays and Matt Murtons of the world. This year he’s hitting .302 with 11 HRs and 50 RBI in only 275 at-bats — but again, his path blocked to the majors by a stunning array of outfielders in the Cubs’ system. Luckily for the Mets, the Cubs were willing to part with the strapping righthanded hitter, who at 30 years old is in the prime of his athletic life.

Immediately, Dubois arrives as the man with the best raw power in the organization among those who do not require a walker to enter the batter’s box. Following in the footsteps of the departed Wily Mo Pena and Valentino Pascucci, Dubois has prodigious power and a prodigious penchant for striking out — 77 times so far this season. But hey, he’s played in Buffalo before (in 2006) and should be warmly welcomed by the Bisons’ fan base.

And who knows, he might be auditioned in Flushing for a 2010 job in the outfield.

Almost immediately upon arriving in Washington last year, AHern swatted the baseball like he never did before, batting .333 with a .409 OBP in 28 games and 91 plate appearances, walking 10 times and striking out only 8. That offensive outburst was enough to make us wonder if the Mets made a mistake in giving up on the previously light-hitting Hernandez — who perennially leads the Caribbean winter league in batting but flops upon returning to the States.

However, Hernandez went right back to his expected offensive output this year — .251 AVG, .310 OBP, 41 Ks in 255 times to the plate. So we can presume that 28-game hot streak was an aberration.

So it’s interesting that the Mets would bring him back to Flushing, considering he is redundant to Wilson Valdez and Argenis Reyes — both of whom remain in Buffalo. Though, personally, I always enjoyed watching AHern and given the choice of all three, would take him over Reyes and Valdez.

In return for AHern, the Mets sent A-ball infielder Greg Veloz to the Nats. Veloz is sort of a 21-year-old version of Hernandez (or Argenis Reyes) — a switch-hitting middle-infielder with above-average speed. He doesn’t have the fielding prowess of AHern nor Argenis, and in fact there was a time that the Mets felt he’d hit enough to move to 3B (he was their #16 prospect in 2008 according to Baseball America). However, he hit a disappointing 6 HRs in a little less than 600 plate appearances last season, and is hitting only .232 with 2 HR through 91 games thus far this year.

For a moment, I questioned why the rebuilding Nationals would trade away a still-young, Gold-Glove caliber second baseman but I guess they don’t see AHern hitting enough to ever be a regular. And, they have acquired a youngster who is quickly becoming a non-prospect but still has time to rebound. It’s not like the Nats are going anywhere in 2010 nor 2011, so they have time to wait.

With the arrival of AHern, I’m guessing that Luis Castillo’s “mild ankle strain” is worse than originally indicated.

After all, imagine how the organization would be lambasted if, for example, they traded someone the day before that player’s bobblehead day?

As you many know, the Cleveland Indians dealt All-Star catcher / first baseman Victor Martinez to the Red Sox yesterday. What they did not factor into the trade was the fact that tonight, in Cleveland, is “Victor Martinez Bobblehead Day”. The Indians have confirmed that they do indeed plan to go forward with the promotion.

But that’s not all … on Thursday of next week, the Indians are also going forward with a Victor Martinez chest protector backpack promotion!

Really, they don’t have much of a choice but to go on with both promos. First of all, part of the reason thousands of people purchased tickets to these evenings was to get the items. Secondly, the items have already been manufactured — it’s not like there’s time to rip off the heads from the figurines and replace them with Kelly Shoppach. And finally, there are the promotional partners, who spent their money many moons ago to ensure these evenings would occur and have their brand associated with them.

So for once, congratulate the Mets — by not trading their closer, Frankie Rodriguez bobblehead night can go off without a hitch on September 6th.

Over at Yahoo, “‘duk” has a number of suggestions to make tonight a bit less awkward for the Indians and their fans; among them:

“Combine a little imagination with some sandpaper and it’s actually a Sandy Alomar, Jr. bobblehead!”

“The bad news? We’ve traded Victor to Boston. The good news? You don’t have to go Christmas shopping for your jerk nephew who lives in Columbus but claims to be a lifelong Red Sox fan.”

“It’s still less fragile than Kerry Wood.”

“You think you’re angry now? Wait until the LeBron James t-shirts in 2011.”

No trades for the Mets, but a flurry were made by others. Since the 2 PM update, the following occurred.

Red Sox get Victor Martinez
The Bosox were expected to do “something”, and they did, moving Adam LaRoche (see below) and adding Casey Kotchman and Victor Martinez to their lineup. Martinez can catch, play 1B, and DH; his presence along with Kotchman’s likely means “Big Fraudi” Ortiz will have more time to “research” his PEDs usage. The Red Sox gave up three pitchers — Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price. Nice haul for the rebuilding Indians, and a deal that helps both clubs going in opposite directions.

White Sox acquire Jake Peavy (again)
This time Peavy OK’d the deal, according to various sources. What changed since the last time? More importantly, Peavy is currently on the disabled list. Isn’t there an MLB rule stating that a player on the DL cannot be traded? The Padres get a foursome of prospects: Clayton Richard, Adam Russell, Aaron Poreda and Dexter Carter.

Nationals trade Nick Johnson to the Marlins
Stunning to see an in-division deal, but the Nationals are so far down in the standings they’re listed in the Central. The Fish gave up minor-league LHP Aaron Thompson, a 2005 first-round pick who compares to Tom Glavine — meaning, a soft-tosser (89-91 MPH fastball) who relies on control and guile. The 22-year-old has struggled with injuries and has been something of a disappointment. I’m not sure who he would compare to in the Mets’ system … maybe Michael Antonini? (Though, Antonini is two years older.) But stop thinking about it … where would you put Johnson with Dan Murphy entrenched at 1B?

Nationals trade Joe Beimel to the Rockies
Lucky for the Mets, they just missed seeing the LOOGY face their slugging LH hitters in key situations (had there been any such situations, or if the Mets had any dangerous LH hitters). They also missed out on adding him to their own bullpen. The Rockies gave up two undisclosed minor leaguers.

Blue Jays trade Scott Rolen to the Reds for Edwin Encarnacion
This deal had been rumored for several weeks, with the Jays supposedly uninterested in the free-swinging Encarnacion. But they came to their senses when they realized that free swinger was only 26 years old and is as good a fielder at the hot corner as Rolen used to be. Being 13 games out tends to knock sense into teams.

Braves acquire Adam LaRoche from Red Sox for Casey Kotchman
Whoa! Where did this one come from? Theo Epstein’s saberbrain loves Kotchman’s OBP, youth, and contract status. We thought the Braves didn’t like LaRoche’s passive attitude, but I guess they’ll look the other way and focus on his homerun bat. Instant upgrade for the Bravos.

Meantime, the Twins have acquired Orlando Cabrera, the Tigers have traded for Jarrod Washburn, the Dodgers found someone to take Claudio Vargas off their hands, and the Red Sox may be on the verge of acquiring Victor Martinez.

Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell, Scott Kazmir, and Mark Hendrickson are still property of the same teams they were with last night.

Wait …. someone CARES that Mark Hendrickson will be traded or not traded? How did that one make the wire?

As the clock ticks down, one must wonder if indeed the Mets will “buy” before the deadline — and if they do, will it be for the right reasons?

This season is smelling a lot like 2004 — the last of the Art Howe years.

On July 31, 2004, the Mets were in fourth place (just ahead of the Expos) and 8 games behind the league-leading Braves. Jim Duquette was the lame-duck GM at the time, and desperate to save the season — as well as his job. The Wilpons kept stammering about “meaningful games in September”, and Duquette pulled the trigger on an array of moves in the final days before the trade deadline. I’ll refresh your memory:

Acquired RHP Kris Benson and IF Jeff Keppinger from Pittsburgh in exchange for 3B Ty Wigginton, IF Jose Bautista and RHP Matt Peterson.

Acquired RHP Victor Zambrano and RHP Bartolome Fortunato from Tampa Bay in exchange for LHP Scott Kazmir and RHP Jose Diaz.

In case you forgot, those two pitchers had little impact on the team’s performance. By the end of the season, the team finished in fourth place, just ahead of the Expos, and 25 games behind the NL East Champion Braves. Did Fred and Jeff say “meaningful” or “meaningless” ?

Similarly, this year, the Mets appear to still “be in it”. Maybe all they need to do is acquire one or two players, and, combined with the return of the “cavalry”, they can pull off a miracle.

Also similar is Minaya’s situation, in comparison to Duquette’s back then. It’s not bad enough that the Mets have choked away a postseason appearance two years in a row, not bad enough that they’re currently in second-to-last and ten games behind, not bad enough that their farms system is a shambles, but on top of all that, Minaya made more of a mockery of the Mets’ Mickey Mouse operation by verbally attacking a journalist at a press conference. If all those issues aren’t enough to put Minaya on thin ice, nothing is.

So, knowing that a poor finish by the Mets could finish Minaya’s career as a GM (who else would hire him after all this? XM / Sirius maybe, to team with Duquette), will he make a desperation deal, as Duquette did?

Let’s hope that ticking is indeed a clock, and not a bomb …

But we have tired of trying to figure out what’s going on in the minds of the Nep’s front office — it’s a futile and frustrating exercise. Most likely, it’s the four-game winning streak, which has lifted the hopes of the fans and fed the Mets’ hype machine. If the Mets make a deal now — even a little one — it could be enough to incite many fans to buy tickets for August and September. So with a little more than 24 hours left to wheel and deal, let’s consider what Minionaya might try to procure.

A LOOGY

The Mets have needed a second lefthander to team with Pedro Feliciano since … well, since forever. The never-ending auditions of Pat Misch, Ken Takahashi, Casey Fossum, etc., has not uncovered a gem. Maybe the Mets can swing a few A-ball suspects for someone like John Grabow or Joe Beimel — but in the grand scheme of things, would such a deal make a difference?

First Baseman

Forget it. The Mets are committed to Dan Murphy at first until Carlos Delgado or game 162 — whichever comes first. So get used to second baseman-type production from the first base position, and hope against hope that the Mets can make up for it at another position.

Left Fielder

The player that would have fit perfectly here was Ryan Garko, but the Giants beat the Mets to him. Mark Kotsay might have been a nice pickup for the short-term, but he also was scooped up. Ben Francisco or Wladimir Balentien would have been an upgrade over the current menagerie being thrown out there. Heck, Wily Mo Pena would’ve been nice to try out right now, but that possibility was muffed. No use crying over split milk. The list of players left include Ryan Spilborghs, Mark Teahen, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, maybe Luke Scott and Ryan Freel. Of that group, Hermida has the most upside, but I don’t see the Fish dealing within the division. Willingham would step right into the middle of the Mets’ order, but the Nats likely will ask for too much in return. Teahen is the one that may make the most sense, but the Royals are looking for a centerfielder — which would mean, I presume, Angel Pagan, who is currently igniting the Mets’ offense. Would KC take Jeremy Reed or Cory Sullivan, along with a prospect along the lines of Nick Evans?

Catcher

Unless you believe Omir Santos is the long-term answer behind the plate, the Mets will need to get a catcher for 2010. If there was a young catcher available for less than a king’s ransom, it would behoove the Mets to make a deal. I don’t see that happening — they’ll take their chances on finding another fill-in or former Expo over the winter (Michael Barrett should be available).

Pitcher

The Mets needed a solid starting pitcher going back to last July, and the best they could come up with was Livan Hernandez. Say all you want about the “brilliance” of plucking Livan off the scrap heap, but it glazes over the “stupidity” of bidding against themselves for Oliver Perez, over-paying for Tim Redding, and counting on John Maine to come back at 100% health. One junkyard pickup doesn’t make up for purchasing three zirconias at the jewelry store. Unfortunately, everyone needs pitching, and few good arms are available, so if the Mets were to trade for anyone of value, it would cost them dearly. A Halladay deal isn’t happening, so the Mets will cross their fingers on the theory that the thirty-six-million-dollar man and young Jonathan Niese can hold up the back end of the rotation — while also hoping that Mike Pelfrey will make more steps forward than backward and Livan will continue to stymie bad-hitting teams.

Shortstop

If it hasn’t happened by now, it’s probably not happening — the Mets appear committed to Alex Cora while pretending Jose Reyes is coming back. I don’t know — maybe the Mets make a move for someone like David Eckstein. If Angel Berroa continues to stink up the joint, it’s back to Argenis Reyes, Wilson Valdez, or Jerry Manuel’s .220-hitting protege Jonathan Malo.

Conclusion

I think the Mets make some kind of deal, for no reason other than to make it appear as though they’re trying — and also to help push away the tiresome Omar Minaya – Tony Bernanzard – Adam Rubin debacle. I’ll go on a limb and say the Mets’ best trade partner is the Royals; perhaps they make a deal with them for Teahen and Freel or Willie Bloomquist. Or, they can hold onto the message that “good players can still be had after the deadline” and pick up some garbage like David Dellucci or Chris Shelton.

Furthermore, Omar Minaya has a press conference scheduled for 11 AM.

Does this mean Brian Schneider has been dealt for a LOOGY?

Stay tuned.

** UPDATE **

As suggested by commenter “Ellie” (Hendricks?), the Mets promoted Cancel to fortify the bench, as Schneider’s legs are ailing.

Though, the definition of “fortify” could be called into question, as Cancel is hitting .218 with a .266 OBP and .259 SLG at AAA Buffalo. It was Cancel or Rene Rivera, and Cancel is already on the 40-man roster.

Phillies obtain Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco for prospects Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson

Wow. The Phillies get a Cy Young winner and a very capable (and relatively young) fourth outfielder in return for three minor leaguers. Granted, those prospects are top-notch, but they are still prospects — not proven MLBers. Further, the Phils did not give up any of Kyle Drabek, JA Happ, Dominic Brown, nor Michael Taylor, their four most coveted youngsters.

Lee steps right in to give the Phillies the best one-two lefty starting combo in MLB. Francisco is a talented offensive force who runs the bases well and has gap / doubles power that could evolve into homerun power at Citizens Bank Park. He is, however, a notorious streak hitter who runs scalding hot and ice cold — not unlike current Phillie Pedro Feliz. This trade more or less locks up the NL East for the Phillies.

Mariners trade Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock to the Pirates for Ian Snell and Jack Wilson.

Finally, the Bucs find a taker for Jack Wilson, a hard-nosed, good-fielding, light-hitting, overpaid shortstop. Snell was an eternal enigma who requested a demotion to AAA to get his head straight. Both will do well in Seattle, and the Pirates will be happy with the players they received. Cedeno steps right in to Wilson’s position at shortstop, and Clement is essentially a lefthanded-hitting version of Ryan Doumit — an offensive-minded catcher with some holes behind the plate, and who may eventually find a home at 1B.

White Sox trade Brian Anderson to Red Sox for Mark Kotsay

The Red Sox had DFA’d Kotsay to make room on the roster for Adam LaRoche, so the fact they received anything for him in return is gravy. They get Anderson, who is essentially a hyped-up version of Jeremy Reed, and can stock him in AAA. The White Sox get a veteran bat who will be used immediately in return for a player who was unlikely to ever meet previous expectations. Good move for both clubs.

Giants acquire Ryan Garko from Indians for minor leaguer Scott Barnes.

This was the deal the Mets needed to make — obtain a slugging, under-30, inexpensive first baseman / outfielder who can fill in at 1B and the outfield corners and be a candidate for regular duty in 2010. Unfortunately, the Mets don’t have ANY minor league pitching prospects at the AA level who are coveted by other teams, so such a deal can’t happen — at least, not without the Mets overpaying (as usual). After being drafted out of St. John’s last year, Barnes rocketed through the Giants’ system, and despite being in the minors, could be ahead of where Jon Niese is right now. But since the Giants have tons of young pitching at the MLB level and throughout their system, he was expendable. This is what is defined as “depth”.

Giants acquire Freddy Sanchez for minor league pitcher Tim Alderson

In a matter of 24 hours, the Giants replaced one-half of their infield, adding much-needed offense to their feeble-hitting lineup. In Sanchez they get a solid singles hitter who will step right in to play second base, which has been something of a black hole for San Francisco this year. They did, however, give up a solid pitching prospect in Alderson — a 20-year-old who was ranked the #4 prospect in the Giants’ organization, and the 26th-best prospect in all of baseball. But again, the Giants are loaded with young arms, so it’s not a big deal for them. Maybe they overpaid, but, you have to give up something to get something — especially at the trade deadline. The Bucs, who are going nowhere, did well with this deal.

Final Thoughts

The Phillies deal, obviously, is the one that on the surface most affects the Mets. But the Giants also made moves that should significantly improve their club, and since they’re unlikely to oust the Dodgers in the NL West, they are a major obstacle in terms of the Wild Card.

The Mets likely won’t make a deal — partially because they don’t have the parts to spare, and mainly because they look at players returning from the DL as their “acquisitions”. The problem with that thinking is, you don’t know when those players will return, nor if they’ll return at 100% right away. For example, Jose Reyes might be back by mid-August — but will he be able to run at full speed? Similarly, when / if Carlos Delgado returns, how long will it take him to get his timing back? And will his hip allow him to swing with the same force he had before? Will either Billy Wagner and J.J. Putz be able to crack 90 MPH when they come off the DL? Lots of hopes and wishes — which has been the Mets’ strategy for three years running.

With four days before the trading deadline, it’s time to see where the Mets can cut their losses and bring in some talent for 2010. Unfortunately, the list of trade bait is pretty short.

Pedro Feliciano

“Pedro Lite” is one of the most sought-after lefthanded relievers right now, in a mix with Joe Beimel, George Sherrill, and John Grabow. But how much will a pennant-starved team give up for a LOOGY? Would it be more than an A-ball suspect or AA filler material? The Mets may be better off holding on to Feliciano, who is showing no signs of slowing down.

Sean Green

Teams need pitching, and are willing to part with talent in return for quality arms. The question is, do other teams consider Green a quality arm? His stock has fallen due to a terrible first half and the fact that his performace drops considerably with overuse. The White Sox recently gave up a slugging first base prospect to pry Tony Pena from the Diamondbacks, and Pena was in the midst of a similarly down season. But, Pena is 27 and has a better track record. Can the Mets obtain a decent player for the 30-year-old Green? It’s worth trying.

Luis Castillo

After a horrible 2008, Castillo is in line for Comeback Player of the Year, and currently sizzling at the plate. There are a few pennant-contending clubs who might be in the market for a second baseman, most notably the White Sox, Twins, and Cubs. The Rockies and Giants might also have room for Castillo’s .400 OBP. However, there is the issue of Castillo’s unbearable contract, which still has two years and $12M remaining after this season. The Mets would certainly have to eat all or most of that money to get anything of value in return — much like the Red Sox’ dumping of Julio Lugo for Chris Duncan.

If the Mets are willing to continue paying Castillo, they might be able to get a prospect or two. For example, the Giants have a switch-hitting second baseman in AA named Brock Bond who is an on-base machine like Castillo, but is already 24 and has no power and only average speed — though, Mets fans would get excited over his currently .350 batting average (he’s projected to be a Jeff Keppinger / Brendan Ryan utility type of guy). The White Sox have some intriguing pitchers at AA and a big young catcher named Tyler Flowers, who was caught with PEDs in 2007 but has done well without them — whether they’d give him up for Castillo, though, is another story. Most likely, the Mets can get a mix of A and AA borderline prospects — similar to what they gave up to get him back in 2007.

Livan Hernandez

In two weeks, Livan went from nearly getting booted from the rotation to emerging as their second-best starter. Everyone always needs pitching, but would anyone give up anything of value for Hernandez — particularly since he projects as a #5 on any contending club?

Angel Pagan

I know, I know — he’s one of the few exciting and dependable players the Mets have in the lineup right now. But he’s also most likely playing the best baseball he’ll ever play in his life — so it may be a good time to “sell high” (i.e., like when the Mets traded Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Desi Relaford). With Carlos Beltran presumably coming back for 2010 and 2011, Pagan’s value to the Mets is diminished. The Tigers and White Sox could be trolling for an outfielder with Pagan’s skillset, and if he can bring back something of value, it’s worth exploring. On the other hand, if you believe Beltran’s knee woes are only beginning, then it makes sense to hold on tight to Pagan, and pencil him into centerfield for next season — because there are no centerfield prospects in the Mets’ minor league system ready to step in.

Brian Schneider

I’m not seeing it. Schneider is a fairly solid defensive catcher with occasional pop, but what is a contending team going to give up for two-month rental who can’t beat out Omir Santos for a starting job? The Mets would get MAYBE an A-ball suspect, and then we’d have Robinson Cancel back in Flushing.

Gary Sheffield

He can’t go anywhere as long as he’s on the DL. If he passes through waivers in August, maybe the Mets can get a AAA guy who was once a prospect but now a suspect.

Conclusion

I keep looking at the Mets’ roster and seeing nothing of value to other teams — a frightening parallel to their minor league system. Veterans not mentioned, such as Fernando Tatis, Tim Redding, Alex Cora, Cory Sullivan, Brian Stokes, and Jeremy Reed are all key contributors on this fourth-place team, but to a contending club they are basically worthless — other organizations have similar talent stocked at AAA, so why trade for it?

More disconcerting, even if the Mets are able to pull off a few trades, will they get anything worthwhile in return?

Consider this: the last time the Mets held a fire sale was July 2003, when they unloaded Jeromy Burnitz, Roberto Alomar, Rey Sanchez, Graeme Lloyd, and Armando Benitez — you can argue that those players were as or more more valuable then, than what the Mets have to offer now. The total return on those trades? Jeremy Hill, Jason Anderson, Kenny Kelly, Royce Ring, Victor Diaz, Kole Strayhorn, Joselo Diaz, Edwin Almonte, Andrew Salvo, Anderson Garcia and Ryan Bicondoa. Victor Diaz and Ring made minor contributions, and the rest never made it to Flushing.