Royals 4 Mets 3
Wait, is the World Series still going on? This looked awfully familiar.
Wait, is the World Series still going on? This looked awfully familiar.
After reading the replies to a recent article here on MetsToday (Who are 2016’s Ten Most Important Mets?), I’ve come up with final rankings for this exercise, which I’ll proceed through in countdown fashion. For each player, I’ll list my subjective predictions, based on watching nearly every inning and every plate appearance over the last few years. I’ll do my best to identify something that I think the national experts and pundits have missed.
The table data below is pulled from FanGraphs. Steamer and ZiPS are two player projection systems with as good a track record as any. The “Off” and “Def” columns are included to illustrate how the projections arrive at their WAR numbers. Note: “Def” includes a positional adjustment, where d’Arnaud’s numbers get a boost simply from playing catcher while Granderson’s numbers take a hit simply from playing right field.
We all know how crucial 2015’s deadline deals were to reshaping the team. Alderson acted to address multiple needs, and all his moves paid big dividends in the short term. With the 2016 National League boasting a number of teams that look great on paper, it’s unlikely that the Mets will simply run away with a playoff spot, meaning that adjustment on the fly should be important once again. If the Mets are neck and neck with another playoff hopeful in late July, Mets fans should certainly hope the trade deadline will unfold more like 2015 than 2007 or 2008. Standing pat in 2008 allowed that team’s holes — primarily a weak bullpen — to ultimately destroy their season.
While some may focus on the Wilpons’ purse strings and how those set the parameters for any deals, I suspect there’s plenty of room for things to go well or poorly within any given budget for trade acquisitions. Uribe, Johnson, Clippard, Reed and Cespedes were all the right players at the right times, but we shouldn’t forget the cost or the luck involved. When the time came to trade Scott Hairston and Bobby Parnell, rough analogs to Uribe-Johnson and Tyler Clippard, Alderson claimed he couldn’t find any worthwhile return, and thus stood pat. Then, on the other side of that equation, he parted with John Gant and Casey Meisner, two pitchers who many now view as having futures as MLB starters. That might be more a reflection on the lack of a coherent plan in 2011-2012 than on what Alderson will do going forward, but in the context of Alderson’s Mets tenure, it’s one more note of caution. Angel Pagan for Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez is a bigger red flag, and the attempt to trade Zack Wheeler for Jay Bruce is bigger still.
No longer having a surplus of arms to deal from, and with few minor league Mets position players who other teams would want, Alderson mostly stays passive at the deadline. Maybe an athletic A-ball shortstop gets shipped out for a roll-of-the-dice bullpen arm.
Should Mets fans be worried about the team’s showing in Florida? After all, the Mets finished their Grapefruit League schedule with a 7-16 record (and 5 ties) – not exactly the best indicator of a talented team on a mission.
In 2015, spring training went much differently. It began with voluntary offseason Mike Barwis workouts, which had a large number of Mets position players coming into camp gushing with confidence about how they’d have a physical edge over their opponents. Next up was all the talk about “no one expects us to win, but we expect to win” and fire and energy and a new and improved hitting coach, which segued into a raging hot start at the plate. For the first half of Spring Training 2015, the Mets looked like the 1927 Yankees. Even when the bats cooled against better pitching, the team kept winning, finishing a Florida-best 19-12. When the regular season began, the Mets started out 13-3, and it was that stretch that kept their season record near .500 and the playoffs within reach despite a poor May and June.
Contrast that to 2016. The talk has been just about the only element in common. “Getting that close to winning the World Series makes us even hungrier!” Well, that sure didn’t manifest in the results. As a whole, the Mets did not hit well, or pitch well, or field well, or run the bases with any great skill. As other teams rounded into form, the Mets did not, failing to win any of their last 13 games. The news out of camp has been about cars and contracts and diminished velocities and bumps and bruises and bladders and last year. Are these the warning sings of a team that’s coasting? Or perhaps a team that’s not that good?
Here’s my take:
To satisfy my cravings for updates to the ongoing saga of the New York Mets, I’ve spent some of the offseason reading projections. While not really news, these projections help me develop an initial framing for the upcoming season. Do the pundits and the computer models agree on what’s likely, or possible, for the 2016 Mets? If not, which positions do I find most credible? As a Mets fan who’s watched nearly every inning over the last few years, are their some players who I feel I can judge more accurately than ESPN writers and FanGraphs charts can?
In the past, this kind of thinking has led me down two paths. Path Number One is where I start thinking through what I expect from one player, and then move on to the next player, and eventually finish the starting lineup and move on to the rotation, and finally feel like I’ve come far enough that I really ought to finish projecting every player on the roster. That’s Path Number One. Path Number Two consists of thinking, “Ack, no, I’m not getting sucked into doing Path Number One again!” and instead doing nothing at all.
Well, with 2016 baseball about to begin, now’s a good time for new year’s resolutions, right? This year, I plan to pursue a middle ground. I will project the ten most important Mets only.
So, MetsToday readers, can you help me out with that? Who are 2016’s ten most important Mets?
Here’s my provisional list. For each guy, I’ve written a note about why he’s ranked where he is.
So much can change in three months! Consider the Mets in July 2015, and then again after October 2015. In July, the same trends that had been vexing Mets fans for four-plus years showed no signs of changing. The Alderson-era Mets: penny-pinching owners, hit-and-miss player acquisitions, some pleasant surprises from the minors but also some disappointments, lots of spin and hype and hype and spin, and a team battling for .500. Four-plus years of that, preceded by four years of other types of disappointment, and fans were actually buying billboard space to demand new owners. Three months later? The Mets enter the World Series amidst congratulations, alternately on sticking with their plan and on striking gold with a trade deadline rental.
That trade deadline was one for the ages. Whether it was due to money freed up by Wright’s injury insurance and Mejia’s suspension, or due to pressure from irate or absent fans, or due to a strategic decision that a golden opportunity to strike had arrived, we’ll probably never know. What we do know is that the Wilpons offered up the dollars, and Alderson offered up the prospects, to import Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, Yoenis Cespedes, and eventually Addison Reed. These players made major contributions, Conforto arrived from AA, d’Arnaud and Wright got healthy, Murphy got hot, the starters didn’t run out of gas, and the Mets became a juggernaut.
After watching deGrom, Harvey and Sydergaard storm into the World Series, most fans and pundits expect the domination to continue. The golden rental player, Cespedes, re-upped for a team-friendly contract, with the team increasing its budget to near pre-Alderson levels to sign him. That .500 team from last July is a distant memory.
Would people think differently if Murphy hadn’t gone on his postseason tear, and the Mets had lost to the Dodgers in the first round? Or if Cespedes hadn’t gone on the hottest tear of his career shortly after joining the team? Or if the Mets had completed their first-choice trade (Wheeler and Flores for Carlos Gomez, who instead went to the Astros and was awful) or their second-choice trade (Wheeler for Jay Bruce, who instead stayed with the Reds and was awful)? Or if the Nationals, still the superior team on paper by some projection models, hadn’t made themselves a punch line by choking the division away?
How far has this team really come? The Mets took a big jump forward in 2014, led by deGrom, Mejia, Familia, Duda and Lagares, beating their 74-win projection by 5 and out-scoring the opposition by 11 runs. That improvement, plus the return of Matt Harvey, led the projections to jump up 7 wins heading into 2015, to 81. Did the Mets make comparably sustainable gains in 2015, in the course of winning 90? Let’s go position by position and see what has changed.
Travis d’Arnaud – stock: unchanged
In 2013, d’Arnaud showed he could catch, but maybe not hit or stay healthy. In 2014, d’Arnaud showed he could hit and stay healthy, but maybe not catch. In 2015, d’Arnaud showed he could hit and more or less catch, but maybe not stay healthy. He’s capable of being an outstanding player – ripping liners, crushing homers, blocking pitches and throwing out runners with average skill, and framing pitches with the league’s better receivers. But his swing can get slow, and his release can get slow, leaving him streaky on both sides of the ball. And an awkward attempted tag cost him months of time, once again bringing his durability into question.
Kevin Plawecki – stock: up
This bat-first minor leaguer showed he could catch and throw and run a major league pitching staff. He has a weak arm, but does everything else well, including a quick release that makes him a nearly average thrower against base-stealers. This was the good news. The bad news was that this contact hitter struck out a lot against MLB pitching, leaving questions over whether the bat will actually play. For now, optimism seems warranted, as he had a ton on his plate in 2015, including a bout with vertigo.
Lucas Duda – stock: unchanged
Duda solidified his gains from 2014, putting up a similar year overall. He had a much worse prolonged cold stretch, but also more red-hot stretches. He hit lefties better than in 2014 at some points, but not at others. He had more trouble with righty offspeed stuff than in the past, but murdered fastballs. He continues to get the most out of his talent in the field, making up for subpar athleticism by giving maximum effort.
Eric Campbell – stock: unchanged
Campbell hit a bunch of live drives right at outfielders. His luck can only improve, but still, he failed to provide many reasons for optimism that he can translate his AAA success to MLB.
Neil Walker – stock: unchanged
In 2015, Daniel Murphy was Daniel Murphy. Then he started pulling for power in September, went on a historic tear in mid-October, and cooled off in late October. Now he’s gone, leaving 8 years of Met memories, good and bad. From what I can gather, Todd Walker is a slightly better overall player due to being average defensively instead of distinctly subpar, but we’ll see how Walker’s higher-strikeout bat plays in the Mets lineup.
David Wright – stock: way down
Wright followed up a bad 2014 with an “is his career over?” beginning to 2015. He eventually pulled off an amazing return from a serious spinal condition to participate in the pennant race and postseason, but no one knows how durable and effective he can be going forward. Given how he hit in 2014, and given how he fielded late in 2015, and given his age and back, I’d say that expecting any semblance of the old David Wright would be incredibly optimistic.
Wilmer Flores – stock: down
In 2014, Flores didn’t impress with his range, eye, or bat speed, but it was his first real exposure to MLB, and at age 22, we all cut him some slack, figuring the minor league line-drive machine would show up eventually. Well, 2015 was not that year. He slugged 10 HRs in the season’s first 11 weeks, but had a lot of trouble at shortstop. Later in the season, his fielding became more reliable (though still not up to middle infielder standards for range), but his slugging declined. Not a starter in the playoffs, he was forced into action by injury and slugged .293. The Mets’ 2015 starting shortstop enters 2016 as a back-up player (albeit a beloved one, thanks to some on-field tears at the trade deadline).
Asdrubal Cabrera – stock: up
Cabrera is not a great player, and it’s arguable whether he’s even a good one, but he should probably be seen as an upgrade at shortstop over how the Mets entered 2015 at the position. Only mild optimists thought Flores would hit, and only extreme optimists thought he would field. Cabrera should at least be non-terrible at both.
Michael Conforto – stock: way up
Being reasonable and cautious, one shouldn’t expect anything different from Conforto in 2016 than what the Mets expected from Cuddyer in 2015. It was assumed that Cuddyer could hit, maybe even hit very well, and be passable in the field. Conforto has much higher upside, but enters 2016 with only 425 plate appearances above A ball, so expecting him to fulfill it immediately seems unfair. Ignoring Cuddyer’s actual performance (mostly awful) and instead referring to expectations, one could rate this as only a slight upgrade to LF for the Mets. For Conforto himself, though, 2015 was an amazing leap forward, from A ball to arguably being the Mets’ best hitter in the World Series.
Alejandro De Aza versus Kirk Nieuwenhuis – stock: unchanged
Kirk’s 2015 started out with awful luck, included some hot hitting in the middle, and ended with a lot of inactivity. Now a member of the Brewers and still a good all-around player with major strikeout issues, Nieuwenhuis been replaced by De Aza, a worse all-around player with a more consistent track record of hitting righties.
Yoenis Cespedes – stock: up
The biggest Mets signing since Jason Bay, Cespedes returns to the city he dominated in 2015’s pennant drive. Even though he shouldn’t be expected to match that hot stretch, he’s an exciting talent whose combo of speed, throwing, and power brings more to the Mets than Lagares’s glove. His game has a lot of holes – rarely walks, often chases, can’t hit the high pitch or the righty slider, awkward reads and routes in CF, doesn’t always bust it in the OF – so disappointment isn’t impossible. But he also has a chance to be a serious difference-maker.
Juan Lagares – stock: way down
The most disappointing Met of 2015. At ages 24-25 he did a ton to leave his non-prospect status in the dust, but at 26 he may have showed where that status came from. His hitting regressed to its 2013 levels, and some combo of fear, poor positioning, and decreasing speed rendered his extraordinary range ordinary. His arm never returned to its former strength, and in fact became a liability as teams took extra bases on him at will. The 2014 NL Gold Glove winner in CF enters 2016 as a bench player.
Curtis Granderson – stock: way up
After being bad at most facets of the game in 2014 at age 33, Granderson leapt forward on every front at age 34. From April 6 through November 1, Granderson was the most consistent Met, grinding out ABs, getting on base, mixing in a solid number of line drives, and running the bases adequately or better. Leading off all year, he led MLB in pitches faced, a major boon to his teammates. He was also the Mets’ most consistent clutch hitter, racking up the team’s highest total of Win Probability Added. He continued to awkwardly circle around the ball in the outfield, but contributed a number of nice catches, and even improved his throwing as the year went on. A look at Granderson’s stats over the last several years indicates that his 2015 hitting was a fluke, but watching him every day told a different story. With his high K rate, I do expect his .259 AVG to drop, but I see no reason why he can’t continue to be a significant asset at leadoff, which is far more than anyone could reasonably have expected after 2014.
Matt Harvey – stock: up
Some of the 2015 numbers – the ERA, the walk rate, the healthy innings – were nothing short of spectacular for a first year back from Tommy John surgery. Other elements were not so spectacular, though: the decreased Ks, increased HRs, ineffective change-up, and moments of “24 and 1” distraction. On balance, this was about what could have been expected, in the form of one of baseball’s best pitchers (that guy we saw in 2013) not quite back up to the top of his game. Perhaps the biggest question was whether he could get through the year healthy, and he answered that with a resounding affirmative.
Jacob deGrom – stock: way up
2014 wasn’t a fluke. DeGrom’s fastball was even nastier in 2015, at times competing for honors of best heater in the game with its combination of velocity, late jump, and location to all quadrants of the plate. His poise, impressive from his first day in the majors, grew to legendary status in beating Clayton Kershaw in the Mets’ first playoff game in 9 years, followed by beating Zack Greinke in a winner-take-all Game 5 which he trailed after 1, lacking his best stuff. Striking out the side in the All-Star Game on 10 pitches was pretty cool too. If deGrom, soon to be 28, has already maxed out, there’s nothing wrong with that. He finished 7th in the NL Cy Young voting and Carlos Gonzalez called him the best pitcher in the league.
Noah Syndergaard – stock: way up
2014 slowed Noah’s roll a bit, and he didn’t initially take it too well, publicly griping about a lack of a call-up. He did a lot of maturing between October and May, though, eventually arriving in the big leagues after 5 dominant starts in AAA. His first few MLB starts showed great velocity and good location but he still looked like a significant work in progress. However, the speed of his improvement from then on was incredible. Syndergaard finished with a K rate of 10.0 and a BB rate of 1.9, stats which would put him among the league leaders in any year, a truly phenomenal achievement for a 22-year-old rookie. His last 3 appearances of 2015: a shutdown 7th inning in relief to hold a 1-run lead in a winner-take-all playoff game; 9 Ks over 5.2 innings to shut down the 97-win Cubs; and an intimidating World Series win against a red-hot Royals team. His huge 2014-2015 innings jump and slightly short-arm motion provide causes for injury concern, but Syndergaard maintained his command deeper into his pitch counts than any other Met. If there’s anyone in the organization who can regularly throw 120 pitches, Thor is probably the guy.
Steven Matz – stock: up
Jon Niese’s 6th and final year as a Mets staple was a weird one, including some excellent starts in the middle of the year, some excellent relief at the end, and a lot of inconsistency before and between. In to replace him is Matz, who struck out a lot of opponents and kept the HRs down in pitcher-devouring Las Vegas before giving the Mets 9 uneven starts wrapped around an injury. Though his personal stock has to be way up, finishing 2015 in the World Series after finishing 2014 in AA, how much he’ll improve the rotation is an open question. Many scouts see a #3, and many projections peg him for an ERA near the 3.49 Niese sported from 2012 to 2014.
Bartolo Colon – stock: unchanged
The guy from Oakland who avoided blow-up starts didn’t return, but neither did the guy who was prone to injury. For the second straight year, Colon led the Mets in innings but posted an ERA significantly worse than league average. He’ll be back to do it again in 2016.
Zack Wheeler – stock: unchanged
His velocity may well get back to the mid-90s, but command is often the last thing to return, and I’d hate to see what Wheeler’s command looks like with more factors working against it. I expect that whatever Zack does after his July return should be viewed as steps toward 2017 – assuming he completes his rehab without reinjury (just ask Jeremy Hefner whether that’s a guarantee).
Jeurys Familia – stock: way up
Improvements across the board. Better control, fewer walks, more Ks, less reliant on groundball luck, maintained effectiveness when pitching multiple innings or on consecutive days, never got rattled by tough spots. It only took him a few months to go from potential closer to elite closer.
Antonio Bastardo vs the field – stock: down
A new Met heading into 2016, Bastardo’s career has been inconsistent but generally above average. He’s the biggest name to replace the large collection of Mets relievers who crashed and burned in 2015. Jenrry Mejia and Carlos Torres had been solid to excellent. Vic Black had flashed promise. Alex Torres came over for Cory Mazzoni with a record of intermittent dominance. Tyler Clippard, arriving as a rental, brought the best track record of any reliever to pitch for the Mets since K-Rod. All of these men are now gone, due to suspension (Mejia), injury (Black & Parnell), ineffectiveness (Torres & Torres) or free agency (Clippard).
Addison Reed – stock: unchanged
Arriving in August 2015, Reed allowed nearly all his inherited runners to score, showed a short-breaking slider, and didn’t light up the radar gun. Still, he managed to throw his fastball by some hitters with a slightly funky delivery, and post a 1.17 ERA in August and September. News out of spring training is that Warthen’s changed his arm angle to get more downward plane. Reed’s recent years have been good and bad, so fingers crossed…
Hansel Robles – stock: up
Projected as a back-end starter or middle reliever, Robles showed flashes of more in his rookie season, with great velocity and sometimes great run on his fastball. He didn’t seem fazed by big situations, and while his slider wasn’t a wipeout pitch, he also avoided hanging it over the middle. Thanks to inconsistent location, Robles may settle in middle relief, but the fastball looks like enough of a weapon to dream of higher upside.
Erik Goeddel – stock: up
Goeddel showed that his splitter and curve can be major league out pitches. Poor fastball command and health are his major bugaboos.
Sean Gilmartin and Logan Verrett – stock: up
This Rule V pick (Gilmartin) and minor league starter (Verrett) both proved capable of short relief, long relief, and spot starts, helping the team’s versatility.
Jerry Blevins and Josh Edgin – stock: unchanged
Arriving in trade for Matt den Dekker, Blevins was death to lefties for a few weeks before breaking his arm. Edgin hasn’t had any setbacks in his return from Tommy John surgery.
MINOR LEAGUERS OF NOTE
Dilson Herrera – stock: unchanged
After his amazing 2014, Herrera more or less maintained in 2015. He didn’t hit big league pitching much in his limited chances, but did well at AAA and looks like he has a good shot to be the Mets’ everyday second baseman in 2017.
Rafael Montero – stock: way down
A mysterious shoulder injury cost him needed development time and he disappeared from prospect maps. His impressive 2013 is seeming further and further away.
Brandon Nimmo – stock: down
Nimmo didn’t improve on any of his weaknesses (tons of Ks, little power) in 2015, and got hurt to boot. He needs a breakout season at some point to avoid being a 4th outfielder.
Dominic Smith – stock: unchanged
Won his league’s MVP award by hitting .300 with plenty of doubles, but had troubles keeping his weight down and hasn’t yet hit for power.
Gavin Cecchini – stock: up
Cecchini’s high batting average and low strikeout totals against more advanced competition were good to see, though he made a ton of errors at shortstop.
Matt Reynolds – stock: down
After a great 2014, Reynolds regressed mightily and is now further down the future depth chart.
Michael Fulmer, Casey Meisner, John Gant, Luis Cessa and Rob Whalen – stock: up
These players are no longer with the Mets organization, but all made gains during 2015 that made them tradeable for the pieces that fueled the 2015 Mets’ run. On the negative side, these trades combined with several promotions (and a lack of many pleasant minor league surprises) to leave the Mets’ farm system relatively weak (23rd of 30 by one forecaster).
So, what’s changed since a year ago?
Stock down: Flores, some AAA guys (Nimmo, Reynolds)
Stock unchanged: Duda, d’Arnaud, Colon, Wheeler, second base (Walker vs Murphy), bench (Tejada, Campbell, De Aza vs Nieuwenhuis), set-up relief (Reed and Bastardo vs Torres et al), LOOGYs (Blevins, Edgin), minor league infielders with upside (Herrera, Smith)
Stock up: Harvey, Matz, Plawecki, relief depth (Robles, Goeddel, Gilmartin, Verrett), center field (Cespedes), shortstop (Asdrubal Cabrera), shortstop in waiting (Cecchini)
Stock way up: deGrom, Syndergaard, Conforto, Granderson, Familia
Combined with last year’s list (see link at top), I see a few sad trends, a few more great ones, some major course-corrections, and not a lot of stability over the 2013-2015 span. Rising: Plawecki’s made small gains every year, Familia and deGrom have rocketed from B prospects to All-Stars, and Steven Matz has come a very long way in a very short time since getting healthy in A ball. Falling: In 2013, David Wright was still a star, Rafael Montero looked like he might become one, Bobby Parnell had finally grabbed the closer reins, and Dillon Gee seemed like a reliable #4. Two years of decline later, and now we have to wonder whether the future holds any significant MLB contributions for these four. Stable: Daniel Murphy was perhaps the most predictable Met, and his replacement looks to be about as good. Bartolo Colon is neither star nor scrub, and that doesn’t seem likely to ever change. Reversals: Curtis Granderson’s stellar 2015 completely redeemed his disappointing 2014. Noah Syndergaard’s growth exploded in 2015 after slowing in 2014. On the other end of the spectrum, Juan Lagares, Carlos Torres, and Matt Reynolds couldn’t sustain recent gains in performance, slipping badly in 2015. Jenrry Mejia finally looked ready to take off, then ‘roided himself out of baseball.
Although it’s sad to watch the decline of the best Met regular ever, I’d say that Wright’s fall and the other unpleasant surprises of 2015 were more than balanced out by positive developments. The Mets’ rotation went from promising to World Series headline and offseason “best ever?” fodder. The team solidified first base, found promise at catcher and left field, developed a stud closer, and imported upgrades for shortstop, center field, and the bullpen. This is a much-improved Mets team, and everyone is taking notice. Fans are turning out to watch exciting stars. Ownership is opening the purse strings. Elite free agent Yoenis Cespedes is returning on a short deal in part because he wants to be a Met. National writers are salivating over the upcoming matchups with Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg.
At this time last year, I expected that Granderson would repeat 2014, and that the decline of Wright and loss of Wheeler would spell short-term trouble for the Mets, with Syndergaard, Matz and other reinforcements still a ways off. “2014 did more for my hopes for 2016 and beyond than for my faith in 2015,” were my words then. Well, now it’s 2016, and with a positive 2014 followed by an even more positive 2015, I’m finally ready to say something I haven’t said since the Alderson regime began:
This isn’t a team that’s only capable of winning if everything breaks right – the 2016 Mets should win almost 90 games if everything breaks average.
I’m no longer worried about bad players and bad owners and front office spin – I’m worried about the Nats, and how many wins it will take to beat them for the NL East crown. It’s a nice feeling.
How did you feel about the changes the Mets went through in 2015? Please post your thoughts in the comments.
Hoo-boy, only a few days into Spring Training and I am already sick of the fluff pieces. Why don’t we mix it up a bit with some good old fashioned trade speculation? A disclaimer, this deal would go down after the 2016 season concludes.
But before we do, let’s acknowledge either the incredible foresight (or was it just plain luck) of the MLB powers- that-be in moving the Houston Astros to the AL West in 2013. That somewhat head scratching move has set up a very compelling in-state rivalry between the ‘Stros and their Lone Star counterparts, the Texas Rangers.
Last year those two teams and the LA Angels went nip and tuck down to the wire for a pair of playoff berths, with the Angels left without a spot when the smoke cleared. It’s hard to envision the aging, broken down Halos keeping pace with the two Texas teams in 2016; it’s instead more likely that they join Seattle and Oakland as long-term also-rans. With several AL East teams reloaded and the Indians pushing KC in the Central, a wildcard from the West is no guarantee. It won’t quite be Yankees-Red Sox, but it does set the stage for a very intriguing tussle between the Rangers and Astros, with both of them searching for an advantage over the other.
Enter the Mets. Coming off a successful (we hope!) defense of their 2015 NL Crown, they will be facing some serious questions about the rising costs of their young starting staff, the fragility of some of their more older parts and the loss of their Cuban slugger, who will one thinks, opt out of his deal. If their apparent current surplus of pitchers hasn’t dwindled too drastically come this December, it might be the time for them to deal Matt Harvey, in a move aimed to address all three issues in one fell swoop.
A hopefully cancer-free Sandy Alderson could approach Texas about slotting Harvey into the top of their rotation alongside Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish, giving them one of the top rotations in the AL and making them very dangerous in a short series. In return, Alderson should ask for some combination of prospects like outfielders Nomar Mazara and Lewis Brinson, third baseman Joey Gallo, pitchers Luke Jackson or Dillon Tate and infielder/outfielder Ryan Rua.
With the Rangers engaged and discussing names, Alderson could then pivot to Houston. Instead of the quantity he wants from the Rangers, he should ask for George Springer, straight up for Harvey. One Connecticut native for another. The thought of Harvey going to Texas could motivate the Astros into this deal. A one-two-three punch of Harvey, Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh puts them atop the AL, rotation-wise and prohibitive favorites in any post season series.
In Springer, the Mets get a young, cost-controlled right-handed power hitter. He has been projected between 3.5 to 4 WAR and has the power potential to slug 30 homers. He provides quality defense in right and would team with Michael Conforto as a formidable left/right combination in the middle of the Mets’ batting order. Harvey’s money can be spread around the remaining young guns, while some of the position players in the Mets have in their system arrive and replace some of their other aging or exiting parts. The good times keep rolling!
It could work, couldn’t it?
This offseason has just about had it all: a big trade, two free agent signings and the return of a trio of popular incumbents. A player wearing a Mets hat is going to the Hall of Fame. While transaction-wise, the Mets have had busier, splashier off seasons, unlike those other winters, they weren’t coming off a World Series berth. Was this year busier than normal for a World Series Mets team? How did previous Met front offices behave coming off previous trips to the fall classic? Here’s a hint: not very well.
Let’s take a look.
Reaction: Ugh. The Otis trade would haunt the Mets for the next decade. As was outlined way back here, the Mets nearly swapped Otis and Nolan Ryan to Atlanta for Joe Torre the year before. Old-timers such as myself can recall the days when third base was a black hole for the franchise. Foy was another failed attempt to fill it and it cost them, although not as dearly as their next attempt would. Marshall logged three seasons for the Mets as a part time outfielder. Sadecki lasted five seasons before being traded for Torre in 1974.
Reaction: If there ever was a time to re-tool, the winter after a veteran team goes 82-80 is it. However despite their pedestrian regular season record, the Mets had surprised everyone by getting to Game Seven of the 73 World Series (remember this was in the pre-wild card era). The brain trust decided instead to keep the team essentially intact. This proved to be the wrong decision, but they almost made an even bigger blunder. McAndrew’s career was over by this point, but Capra, finally able to get a regular turn in the rotation, had a spectacular season for the Braves in 1974. He led the NL in ERA. Injuries ruined his career from then on however.
• Mets trade Kevin Mitchell and two other outfielders to San Diego for Kevin McReynolds and P Gene Walter
• World Series hero Ray Knight signs with Baltimore
• Mets trade catcher Ed Hearn to Kansas City for David Cone
Reaction: The hindsight on both trades is far different than the immediate reaction. Most pundits liked the McReynolds acquisition as Mitchell was seen as a utility player. The Cone trade, made right before spring training ended, was overshadowed by Doc Gooden’s entry into rehab. Many saw it as risky, since Hearn had proven to be a capable backup catcher. McReynolds, despite being a solid player, never quite lived up to his expectations, a situation made worse when Mitchell won the MVP for the Giants two years later. Cone had a remarkable career that included stops with both New York teams, which was spilt by a return trip to Kansas City and a stint in Toronto. Without Knight and Mitchell, the post-86 Mets lost some of their swagger. It showed.
• Colorado signs P Mike Hampton (Mets draft David Wright with the compensation pick. Mets also lose SP Bobby Jones to the Padres.
• In one day (December 11), Mets sign Ps Kevin Appier and Steve Trachsel OF Tsuyoshi Shingo (from Japan) and trade Bubba Trammel to San Diego for P Donne Wall.
• Endy Chavez is moved for the first time, to KC for a minor leaguer.
Reaction: This was the offseason the Mets passed on Alex Rodriguez, who really, really, really wanted to come here. Interesting to think how much different baseball history might have been for both the Mets and the Yanks if Fred had actually opened his wallet and paid the man. Trachsel hung around long enough to get lit up in Game 3 of the ill-fated 2006 NLCS against the Cardinals. Endy would return for one of the biggest moments in Mets history, although that memory will always be bittersweet.
Right now, Mets GM Sandy Alderson is riding a wave of popularity. Past transgressions are forgotten and even some of his harshest critics have praised his planning and his deal making. Soon comes the hard part: the start of the 2016 season and the task of taking the ultimate next step. With one exception, the Mets have never put together back-to-back playoff seasons. Now, it’s World Series or bust; a tall task for anyone.
So, here’s hoping for a re-run of this article next January with some additional (and happier) content.
Baseball is a funny game.
Less than two years ago, I wrote this post that predicted the end of the NY Mets franchise. Now incredibly, I am beginning to wonder how they could possibly not win 100 games in 2016.
The team has sandwiched a memorable post season between a Trade Deadline for the Ages and an Offseason for the Ages, the results being a team that, on paper at least, is probably better than last year’s World Series team and, the argument could be made, as deep as those teams that won 408 games between 1985 and 1988. Yes, I went there.
So, as the rest of Bethlehem hunkers down during Winter Storm Jonas (when did they start naming snowstorms?) my thoughts are turning to blue skies, green grass, milder weather and 100 regular season wins. There is much to support this notion. While I have been on an optimistic bent since the beginning of last year, I’ll wager that the events of the last 72 or so hours have propelled more than just my optimism. Expect this to be merely the first in a series of posts/articles with the same sentiment. There are plenty of good reasons why.
The 2016 Mets will begin Spring Training with perhaps 23 spots on the OD roster sown up. That’s nothing new, but unlike the not too distant past when the likely roster included names like Baxter, Gee, Nickeas, Quintanilla or Bautista, a collection of AAAA roster filler complimented by washed up (although we didn’t know it) names like Bay or Santana or Byrdak, this team has names that not only have a bright future, but a present that looks really good as well. The recent signings of Antonio Bastardo and most importantly, Yoenis Cespedes means that players such as Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Conforto and Hansel Robles aren’t being asked to fill shoes that might still be too big for them. The result is a long, deep lineup, a bench that includes several major leaguers (a drastic departure from even 6 months ago) and a reliable bullpen that should protect the leads the starters give them. Check out Bastardo’s numbers against Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman. And just in case, there are a few soon-to-be major league ready players in AAA that can either fill a temporary gap, or be traded for help.
And…it appears that at least a half dozen National League teams are already packing it in. The Mets have 19 games against Altanta and Philadelphia, seven against the Brewers and the Rockies and six against Cincinnati. They get the AL Central this year, so in addition to the Royals, they get the Tigers and the White Sox, although he former may be much improved. They feasted on bad teams and bad pitching last year and appear poised to do more damage again this year. Plus, there must be something dreadfully wrong in that National’s clubhouse.
Maybe it’s the record snowfall or the cabin fever, but I can’t believe I just typed those last five paragraphs! Like the rest of the Mets Today staff, I tend to take an iconoclastic view of the team’s doings, so I probably shouldn’t be shocked if this team stumbles and ends up as just another disappointment. Injuries, especially to young arms, would definitely short circuit this expected romp to the division title. Miami could get Cy Young and MVP seasons from Fernandez and Giancarlo; or maybe Daniel Murphy helps Harper and Jonathan Papelbon find religion and the Nats Kumbaya their way to the NL East crown.
Because after all,baseball is a funny game.
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