Tag: Predictions

Told You So … and Didn’t

We’re a bit past one-quarter of the way through the season, so it’s time to review some of my wild and crazy Mets predictions of April 6th, 2009.

I’ve selected particular predictions that seem relevant at the moment, but you can see them all here.

Johan Santana will win 21 games, and take the Cy Young.
He certainly looks on that pace so far, no? In truth, he’s on pace to win 22. Woo hoo.

John Maine will struggle so mightily in the first half that he will be sent to the minors to work out issues with his mechanics and command.
So far, so wrong. I still think his mechanics are a disaster, but Maine is far from being sent to the minors. Maybe I meant Oliver Perez?

Livan Hernandez will be the tortoise and Oliver Perez the hare, and Livan will quietly emerge as the Mets #3 starter by year’s end, posting 13 victories.
This one certainly seems plausible. My calculator says he’s on track to win 14.6.

Maine and Perez will combine for less than 20 wins.
This one is very possible.

Darren O’Day and Sean Green will combine for 20 decisions in middle relief.
With O’Day saving games in Texas and Green banished to the doghouse, this one looks like an impossibility. The spirit of the prediction was that a couple of nondescript middle relievers would get more decisions than they should.

Mike Pelfrey will take a no-hitter into the 9th inning, but settle for a one-hit shutout.
There’s plenty of time for this one.

Tim Redding will throw less than 50 innings all season.
I hope I’m wrong.

Luis Castillo will receive consideration for the All-Star Game, and finish the year with a .295 AVG., .375 OBP, and 28 SB.
This one looked good at the end of April, right now, it’s iffy. He’s currently at .283 AVG/.372 OBP/6 SB

Danny Murphy will have trouble keeping his average above .250 in the first six weeks of the season, and Gary Sheffield will take over as the starting leftfielder.
Um … Murphy’s hitting .246 and Sheff’s the starting left fielder. I will admit to being two weeks off, though. Damn tea leaves.

Sheffield will be a key run producer for the Mets, and finish fourth on the team in RBI.
So far, so good. And he is currently fourth on the team in RBI, btw.

Very few “Putz” jerseys will be sold by the Mets, for obvious reasons.
Still rings true.

Not one “Shawn Green” jersey will be sold to a patron thinking it’s a “Sean Green” jersey.
I’m not sure ANY “Green” jerseys will be sold, period.

Ryan Church will be traded to the Rockies.
Time will tell. I’m starting to think the team may be the Diamondbacks though. Or maybe the A’s or Astros. Someone out west, in any case.

The Mets’ lack of a second LOOGY will be a major point of concern, and trade rumors will swirl around the names Eddie Guardado, Matt Thornton, and Alan Embree. The Mets will wind up with Bobby Seay, against whom lefties hit .303 lifetime.
How was I to know Ken Takahashi would be so dominating?

The Mets will have a strong record outside the division, but will be only a few games above .500 against NL East teams.
The Mets are 11-8 vs. the NL East, 13-12 vs. everyone else. It’s still early for this one to play out.

Jose Valentin will make it back to the 25-man roster before the end of the season.
Oh, Jose, if only you stuck it out in Buffalo, you’d be starting at shortstop right now.

Bobby Ojeda will start doing commercials for the Hair Club for Men.
Like many of these, there’s still time ….

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Wild Mets Predictions

The National League predictions have been posted, so now it’s time for New York Mets – specific prophecies. You may like some of them, you’ll likely hate a few of them, and nearly all of them are unlikely to occur. But what the heck, let’s go …

The key to the Mets’ success this year will be tied to health and the production of Carlos Delgado.

Jose Reyes will hit 25 triples, 17 of which will come at home in Citi Field.

Johan Santana will win 21 games, and take the Cy Young.

John Maine will struggle so mightily in the first half that he will be sent to the minors to work out issues with his mechanics and command.

Livan Hernandez will be the tortoise and Oliver Perez the hare, and Livan will quietly emerge as the Mets #3 starter by year’s end, posting 13 victories.

Maine and Perez will combine for less than 20 wins.

Darren O’Day and Sean Green will combine for 20 decisions in middle relief.

Mike Pelfrey will take a no-hitter into the 9th inning, but settle for a one-hit shutout.

Tim Redding will throw less than 50 innings all season.

Luis Castillo will receive consideration for the All-Star Game, and finish the year with a .295 AVG., .375 OBP, and 28 SB.

Danny Murphy will have trouble keeping his average above .250 in the first six weeks of the season, and Gary Sheffield will take over as the starting leftfielder.

Sheffield will be a key run producer for the Mets, and finish fourth on the team in RBI.

Very few “Putz” jerseys will be sold by the Mets, for obvious reasons.

Not one “Shawn Green” jersey will be sold to a patron thinking it’s a “Sean Green” jersey.

Jeremy Reed will substitute for a disabled starter at some point in the season and go on a tear, making fans almost forget Endy Chavez.

Reese Havens will rocket through the Mets’ minor league system, and be considered for a September call-up.

Ryan Church will be traded to the Rockies.

Aaron Heilman will struggle against the Mets, but will otherwise succeed in Chicago. He’ll get a few starts when Rich Harden goes down and prompt the Cubs to move Sean Marshall back to the bullpen.

The Mets’ lack of a second LOOGY will be a major point of concern, and trade rumors will swirl around the names Eddie Guardado, Matt Thornton, and Alan Embree. The Mets will wind up with Bobby Seay, against whom lefties hit .303 lifetime.

The Mets will have a strong record aoutside the division, but will be only a few games above .500 against NL East teams.

Jose Valentin will make it back to the 25-man roster before the end of the season.

Bobby Ojeda will start doing commercials for the Hair Club for Men.

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National League Predictions

Everyone else is making predictions, so why not MetsToday? We’ll focus on the National League, since that remains the only professional league still playing baseball, and not some twisted variation of the sport.

Cy Young Award

Obvious Candidates: Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, , Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Carlos Zambrano.

Sleepers: Edinson Volquez, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Cook, Ricky Nolasco.

Prediction: Santana

If Santana remains healthy, he should pitch through the 7th inning at least 25 times this year. If his one-two finishing punch of J.J. Putz and Frankie Rodriguez also remains healthy, Johan could win 20 of those 25, if not more.

Should any of those three suffer a significant injury, my money is on Volquez.

MVP


Obvious candidates:
Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Beltran, David Wright.

Sleepers:
Hanley Ramirez, Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Nate McLouth.

Prediction: This one’s too hard, you can’t really choose an MVP without knowing what teams are in the playoffs. I’m going to go on a limb and give it to Votto, who is poised for a breakout year.

Rookie of the Year


Candidates:
Jason Motte, Colby Rasmus, Jordan Schafer, Jordan Zimmerman

Prediction:
My research on the rookies is awful. I’m going to go with Motte, who could save 25+ games for the Cardinals. After Motte I like Schafer, who is slated to start in centerfield for the Braves.

Batting Title

Another tough one. I don’t see Chipper Jones hitting .364 again, though I wouldn’t be stunned to see Pujols hit .350 again. In fact, with Matt Holliday out of the league, this might be Pujols’ best chance for a triple crown. Someone’s going to come out of nowhere and surprise us all, and I say it’s going to be James Loney.

Saves Leader

Can Francisco Rodriguez save 60 games again? Doubtful — he may not get that many opportunities in the competitive NL East. I’m betting on a neck-and-neck race between Jose Valverde and the “other” Francisco Cordero, of Cincinnati.

NL West Champion: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers still have Manny, but they don’t have Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, nor Takashi Saito. After Chad Billingsley, the pitching staff looks questionable — even Jonathan Broxton looks like he might take a step back. I like the pitching of the Giants and the Diamondbacks, and think Arizona will have a little more offense and the better bullpen.

NL Central Champion: Chicago Cubs

On paper, the Cubs look to be the class of the NL, with great pitching depth and plenty of offense. However, they won’t run away with the division. I’m betting that the Reds have a surprising season, and that the Pirates climb out of the basement, while Houston and Milwaukee fight for last place.

NL East Champion: ?

This one’s too close to home. If I choose the Mets, I’m supposed to because this is a Mets blog. If I don’t choose the Mets, you wonder how I can’t since this is a Mets blog. So I’ll say this: the NL East is going to once again be a dogfight, and go down to the last weeks of the season. Further, neither the Marlins nor the Nationals will be pushovers in ’09, and the Braves won’t be left behind when it gets down to the wire. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if four games or less separates the Phillies, Mets, Braves, and Marlins when it’s all said and done. The Wild Card also will come from the East.

Agree or disagree with anything? Comment away!

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