2010 Analysis: Jason Bay

So I thought I was finished with the evaluations, then realized that I somehow missed Jason Bay.

Most likely it was because he didn’t appear on the official 40-man roster when I put together my list of players to write about back in October. But, the fact I completely forgot about him speaks volumes about his first year as a Met.

Without doubt, Jason Bay was a disappointment after signing a 4-year, $66M deal last winter. Based on his past history and the richness of his contract, expectations were high. It was assumed that Bay would laugh in the face of the cavernous confines of Citi Field, and mash his usual 30-35 HRs. Heck, the crack research team managed by Omar Minaya had done extensive studies proving that Bay — and not Matt Holliday — was most suited to the Mets’ home park and more likely to hit homers based on his ability to pull the ball.

But instead, Bay hit 6 four-baggers. Six.

Granted, he missed the last two months of the season due to a concussion, but 6 homers in 95 games / 401 plate appearances is, well, feeble.

As David Wright was in 2009, it was clear that Bay was “psyched out” by Citi Field, and possibly also affected by the dual pressures of the big contract and New York City (not unlike Carlos Beltran‘s first year as a Met). Yes, Bay played in Boston, which is a similar if not more intense media pressure cooker, but he was more of a supporting cast member than savior during his time there. Not to mention that Fenway is much more friendly to sluggers than Citi Field.

Interestingly, the one pleasant surprise in Bay’s game was the same part that had the pundits putting him down — his defense. There was so much squawking about Bay’s supposed inability to play the field that we were braced to expect balls to bounce off Bay’s head. Instead, Bay looked completely competent and at times good while grazing the vast pasture of left field. I’m sure there are stats that say Bay was bad in the field, but my eyes saw someone who rarely made mistakes; got decent jumps; made good judgments on batted balls toward his direction; displayed average range; threw the ball accurately with above-average strength to the correct base; hustled after everything hit his way; did a fair job of playing balls off the wall; and showed no fear (as demonstrated by his bobblehead-like bounce off the fence that resulted in his season-ending concussion).

We waited for the streaky Bay to catch fire at the plate, but he never did. Offensively, he was a grave disappointment, but as a ballplayer in general I did enjoy his all-out effort, sound fundamentals, and attention to detail in all aspects of the game. Unfortunately, being a strong all-around ballplayer who hits only .260 with a .403 slugging percentage is not enough to justify a $66M contract. The only way I can look at his inaugural season in a somewhat positive perspective is to say that it cost the Mets “only” $6.5M — just $1.5M more than they paid Jeff Francoeur.

2011 Projection

While his 2010 salary was relatively cheap, it jumps to $16M per year beginning in 2011 — an increase of nearly three times. That said, Bay must be AT LEAST three times better in ’11 than he was in ’10. At minimum, he needs to triple — if not quadruple — his homerun output. Considering his skill set, there is no reason Bay can’t reach 25 HR, 30+ doubles, a .270 AVG, and .370 OBP. Though he’s being paid to be a 30-35 HR guy, I’d be completely happy with 20-25 dingers combined with high hits, doubles, triples, walks, and run totals. The problem is that Bay has tended to be viciously streaky throughout his career, and he has yet to find the “zone” in a Mets uniform. Considering that there are at least three more years on his contract, there is still time for Bay to get hot. I have a good feeling that Bay will rebound in a similar fashion to how Beltran did in his second year in New York; though, I don’t expect an MVP-like performance. Rather, I can see Bay settling in, relaxing, and hitting more like the player we saw in Boston in Pittsburgh. He doesn’t need to be a super hero, he just needs to be Jason Bay.

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
  1. CatchDog December 1, 2010 at 10:00 am
    Dear Santa;

    Please make Jason Bay whole again.

    Your Friend,


  2. Steve S. December 1, 2010 at 12:08 pm
    Your analysis is spot on. Maybe with the right batting coach, Bay will put up decent numbers this year.
  3. Walnutz15 December 1, 2010 at 12:34 pm
    “Speak Softly…..Carry A Big Stick.” — well, at least Bay lived up to one promise last year.

    Hopefully, he remembers to bring his bat to Citi Field in 2011. There were a bunch of times where he smacked the snot out of the ball, only to watch an outfielder settle right under it on the warning track.

    He also has to get on-board with some better pitch recognition; as this past season was one of the worst I’ve ever witnessed from him at the plate. (And believe me, as someone who has Pirate ties in his family, I’ve seen a bunch of Jason Bay.)

    The “possibility of rebounding” angle is fine w/me — go right ahead and chalk last year up, all-together…..putting everything into perspective, this team pays Oliver Perez $12MM/per to get his eyebrows waxed in South Beach, while taking in Orlando Magic games courtside during his “rehab assignments”……if he even goes on them.

    I’m alright with a hard-working guy like Bay struggling mightily during his 1st year, $6.5MM campaign.

    ……….only thing is: his career, post-concussion.

    In actuality, Bay will be another year older – coming off this concussion – as his contract trampolines up to $16MM/per in 2011.

    That’s why I liked the acquisition of Bay, but definitely didn’t love it.

    He’s going to be a Met for awhile; so really – I’m rooting very hard for him to get himself straight.

    (And yes, I’m still chuckling over how bad everyone wanted to make his defensive game out to be.)

  4. murph December 1, 2010 at 12:44 pm
    Let’s say Mr. Bay gets a “do over” in 2011.
    He had better get off to a good start, or the boo-birds will be on him early and often.
    I have confidence that he will return to form this season.
  5. gary s. December 1, 2010 at 4:44 pm
    Will we get Jason K or Jason Bay in 2011? I’m hoping Lucas Duda becomes Adam Dunn Lite and if Jason K returns in 2011, can platoon in left, get 250 ab’s and hit 10-15 home runs.
    • Joe Janish December 1, 2010 at 5:14 pm
      Even if Lucas Duda becomes Adam Dunn Ultra-Max, there is no way the Mets pay Bay $16M to be a platoon player. In such a case it’s more likely either Pagan or Beltran gets moved to make room for Duda.
  6. rachel December 14, 2010 at 4:41 pm
    We still miss Jason Bay in Boston. He was fantastic and the best fit for Fenway> If he has to be in New York now, I wish him the best and hope he returns to the form he was in back in 2009. I am not sure he will hit 36 homers in citi field, but he could certainly hit 20. Good luck in 2011 Jason!