Trade Target: Derek Fisher

No one inside the Mets organization will publically admit, but they have to sense what many of us have already concluded: 2017 just isn’t the Mets year. At this point, they need a GPS to find .500, let alone any of the five National League playoff spots. Readers of this blog fully understand the woes of this current team, but essentially the older Met players haven’t aged well and the injured Met players haven’t fully recovered. If they pitch well, their bats go silent, and if they score runs, their pitching staff can’t hold the lead. This is more than a 10-game cold streak, they have played nearly one-third of the season. Yes, they put together some great runs the last two seasons to make the playoffs; but in both years they started off well, tailed off in the middle and then heated up down the stretch. Now, they will have to make a concerted run at winning baseball for over 100 games. Do you see them going 65-35 or so the rest of the way? Me neither, and it’s very disappointing.

The good news is that this probably isn’t 1978, nor 1993, nor 2003 nor 2011 again. Those rock-bottom seasons (notice how they get progressively closer together) featured a roster devoid of talent, some onerous contracts and a feeble farm system. Outside architects had to be brought in to tear the entire structure down and rebuild at a very basic level, a tortuous process that took years—and didn’t always bear fruit.

Maybe wishful thinking here, but I don’t see this as the case with this current incarnation. Other than David Wright’s insurance-covered deal, they are fine in the contract department.  In Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Yoenis Cespedes and probably Michael Conforto and Wilmer Flores, they have a decent cadre of core players. If the scouting reports are indeed true, they will be adding another solid piece whenever Amed Rosario is finally summoned from Vegas. Looking ahead to 2018, they should have two outfield and two infield spots covered, as well as a pair of top-of-the-rotation arms. The task between now and next year’s Spring Training is to supplement that core with some better players than the ones they have now. Which brings us to Mr. Fisher.

Unlike the Mets, the Houston Astros are having a phenomenal year. As of today’s writing (June 7) they are an incredible 42-16. Even if they “slow down” to a .600 pace they are on track for a triple-win digit year. Yet, they have weaknesses. Their bullpen needs another arm. Nori Aoki is slashing 258/307/315 for them in left and their DH is a 40 year-old Carlos Beltran. But if ever a team looked poised to win it all, this is it. Pardon the expression but they should be “all in.” The Mets have players to deal and would match up well with the Astros. They could offer Houston either Lucas Duda or Addison Reed for Fisher.  I wouldn’t be averse to packaging both of them together to get Fisher in return. Since Houston is looking for more production in their outfield, perhaps they would consider taking Jay Bruce in place of one or either piece. Maybe even Jerry Blevins, although that’s cutting a bit into next year’s team for the Mets, and I am not ready to punt 2018 just yet.

Currently Fisher is slashing 338/403/604 in the PCL. Yes, it’s the Pacific Coast League, but consider the fact that the highly-regarded Rosario is slashing 340/383/494 in the same league. Both players currently have 11 stolen bases. Imagine those two dynamos at the top of the Mets order.

Fisher has power from the left side, and has and has the ability to steal bases. There are concerns about his defense, which may relegate him to a corner outfield position (making Conforto a full time CF). But IMO this type of trade is a perfectly acceptable risk to take. Fisher probably isn’t ready to contribute to the Astros this year. Duda, Bruce, Reed, etc. could.  None of the Mets expiring contracts are likely to return next year. This type of return beats a draft pick or whatever the going rate is these days for losing a player to Free Agency.

They’ll still need plenty of shoring up elsewhere, especially the bullpen, but Fisher could be a useful piece to what is hopefully a quick turnaround from mediocrity.

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Fifth Rotation

The Mets’ hopes coming into 2017 rested in large part on their starting pitching staff. Various health and effectiveness concerns provided cause for concern, but the quintet of Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, and either Wheeler or Gsellman certainly looked like a major strength back in March. Even when Matz and 7th guy Seth Lugo both got hurt, the five arms the Mets started the season with showed great promise. Would they be enough to push a team with weaknesses elsewhere on the roster into the playoff picture?

Through five turns in the rotation, the answer appears to be a tentative “no”.

Let’s look at what we’ve seen and try our best to guess what it all means.

First, the fifth turn itself:

 IPHRERBBKHRP 
Harvey4.156651186L
deGrom76331122112W
Wheeler4.252144096
Syndergaard1.155522034L
Gsellman565510177W

What I saw

Matt Harvey

Pitching on three hours’ notice thanks to Syndergaard’s late scratch, Harvey was not sharp, which he blamed on weight lifting the day before.

Jacob deGrom

DeGrom showed pretty consistent location and velocity with his fastball, and did just enough with his secondary stuff.

Zack Wheeler

96 pitches didn’t get him through 5 innings. Bad defense didn’t help.

Noah Syndergaard

That big dude throwing 100 mph is a very poor doctor. No one tears a lat when everything is fine.

Robert Gsellman

Gsellman’s sinker was finally sinking, and he limited the free passes. Unfortunately he didn’t do much with his secondary stuff.

What I’ve seen overall, through five turns

Noah Syndergaard

Thor hadn’t always looked his sharpest this year… and that produced 30 strikeouts, no walks, and a 1.73 ERA. Cy Young contender? Check!

Then the big guy was unable to discipline himself and sacrifice some short-term frustration for long-term safety, and the Mets’ outrageously flawed medical process allowed him to roll the dice. He lost. Since the team is calling his lat injury a tear rather than a pull or a strain, I expect that it’s quite bad. That probably means that if we see Noah before September, he’ll be unwisely risking his health yet again. Tears to major muscles take time to heal, and this is one you can’t pitch with until it’s pretty much 100%. So, going forward, the Mets rotation will be without its ace. That might be enough to puncture those March/April dreams right there.

Jacob deGrom

Jacob has been dominant at times this season, but has yet to show his trademark precision and intelligence for more than a few innings at a time. His insistence on Wednesday on throwing a slider he couldn’t command was baffling. Once again, Rene Rivera called mostly fastballs, and almost no change-ups or curves.

DeGrom’s velocity has been stellar, but his movement and location have varied greatly from start to start, and sometimes from inning to inning. Will he eventually put it all together and settle into an ace-like groove as in 2015, or will he remain good but erratic?

Overall, that’s not a bad pitcher to have fronting your rotation, but it’s also not a leg up on the Mets’ competition.

Also worth noting: deGrom talked to the media about mechanics and location and this and that when he pitched poorly late in 2016, never mentioning that his ulnar nerve was on fire. So, believe none of what you hear regarding any struggles he may have. Maybe he isn’t throwing his change-up because he can’t feel his fingers, or maybe he isn’t throwing his curve because of elbow soreness, or maybe he has blisters; we have no idea.

Matt Harvey

Entering the season, I thought Harvey might be done. After spring training, I thought Harvey might be done. Then I was pleasantly surprised by his first few starts. Then his last few starts have been straight out of 2016. His numbers with men on base are terrible; just like in 2016, he cruises until there’s trouble (.655 OPS w/ bases empty), and then the wheels come off (.896 OPS w/ men on). He’s also completely stopped striking people out, and is averaging nearly two homers per 9 innings. Yeah, he’s thrown a few nasty pitches, but he threw a few nasty pitches last year too.

Maybe Harvey’s just a work in progress coming off major surgery which will eventually have cured everything that was wrong with him before the surgery. Or maybe he’s one of MLB history’s many young flame-thrower flame-outs, having lost both his stuff and his confidence. There’s too much variability here to call, but the middle-case scenario is certainly short of “elite member of elite rotation”.

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler drove me crazy in 2014 by nibbling and throwing too few strikes. Now in 2017, I think he’s nibbling less, but his command is even worse, so the results are similar. Every once in a while he’ll follow a late-sinking fastball at 97 with a diving curveball and remind us of his former elite prospect status. But that’s just every once in a while.

I haven’t spotted any health flags, so his performance may improve as he continues to shake off some rust, and anyone who had high hopes for his season probably doesn’t see much reason to be discouraged.

Personally, I had very modest hopes for his season, and don’t see much reason to be encouraged.

Robert Gsellman

He’s young and has shown both serious strikeout ability and serious groundball ability. I like his future. I’m happy to see him developing against MLB hitters. Is he an asset on a team bent on winning in 2017, though? Not yet, it appears. Consistency generally takes time, and Gsellman doesn’t seem to be an exception.

Summing up

The story of the next five months is obviously unwritten, but the Mets’ starting rotation doesn’t currently appear to be a major competitive strength. As such, I think the original premise of this “Rotation” series is dead, so I’ll be stopping the every-turn analysis, at least for now.

What have you seen?

Please share your observations in the comments!

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Fourth Rotation

The Mets’ hopes for 2017 rest in large part on their starting pitching staff. Is this quintet a major strength which can carry the team? Or do various health and effectiveness concerns place them somewhere short of that status? Let’s take a look at the fourth rotation through the Mets’ (hopefully) fab five and note what we’ve seen.

 IPHRERBBKHRP 
Syndergaard77530100114L
Harvey7433222108
deGrom5.28336100101L
Wheeler7444261101L
Gsellman41065320100L

What I saw

Noah Syndergaard

Syndergaard used an extremely methodical delivery in a perfect first inning, but then began missing up with everything once men were on base in the middle innings. Noah also routinely got ahead in the count with fastballs and then threw more fastballs, making it easier for the Phils to stay in at bats. After a leadoff single in the 5th, Syndergaard went back to being more deliberate, and pitched more effectively. In the 6th and 7th, he was fortunate on a bunch of hard line outs.

Matt Harvey

I didn’t see this game. Leapfrogging deGrom in the rotation thanks to Jacob’s stiff neck, Harvey pitched on regular rest, posting a decent line against a good offensive team but striking out only two. If there’s anything to read into the postgame comments, it’s not good: Collins called him “not sharp”, and Harvey expressed relief that things didn’t spiral out of control like last year. I would have been much more heartened to hear him say, “I figured out how to work with what I had,” or something else more active and less lucky.

Jacob deGrom

DeGrom showed no-hit stuff for the first time through the order, hitting the black on both sides
of the plate with tons of life at 96-98. But virtually all the pitches he threw were fastballs. He tried a few sliders and just missed. He bounced a change-up. The second time through the lineup,
that wasn’t enough. Every time his fastball was off the plate, the Nats took it. Every time it caught too much plate, they hit an opposite-field line drive. By the time Jacob committed to throwing some sliders, the Nats were rolling. By the time he threw his first curveball, he’d allowed 3 runs and was on his way out of the game. Strange to see with Rene Rivera behind the plate, whose pitch-calling I usually prefer to d’Arnaud’s.

DeGrom also wore down, throwing 93 without much precision by the end of a laborious 5th inning. Maybe he came out too fired up and wasted too many bullets early on? Or maybe the neck stiffness which pushed back his start came back after a few inning breaks?

Zack Wheeler

This start was a testament to the effectiveness of mixing pitches, alternating between fastball, slider and curve without ever throwing the same one too many times in a row. Great sequences by Wheeler and Kevin Plawecki, and great objectivity by the umpire, who consistently called a strike a strike regardless of how far Wheeler was from the target. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen so many inside strikes on pitches where the catcher set up away, or high strikes on pitches where the catcher set up low. Wheeler was rarely within a foot of his target, but still wound up throwing a lot of strikes, leading to short at bats and the Nats never really getting a read on his stuff. Perhaps his slider was particularly deceptive, as the Nats were taking fastball hacks at it all night.

Zack kept the ball down a little better as the game went on, but still hit the inside corner by accident as often as he hit the outside corner on purpose. Apparently pitching inside works even if you don’t mean to! Wheeler’s line would have looked very good if not for one pitch in Murphy’s wheelhouse with the bases loaded. Still, this start has to be concerning for his complete inability to repeat his motion and locate his pitches.

Robert Gsellman

Pitching on extra rest after an off day and a rainout, Gsellman had very little working for him. His fastball was running and sinking a bit, but it wasn’t sharp and late, and the Braves clearly saw it well. They sat on the fastball away and calmly lined it to the opposite field, past a Mets defense that was playing mostly to pull. That’s where those 10 hits in 4 innings came from. Shades of Mike Pelfrey, anyone?

As the game progressed, Gsellman stopped trying to force his slider (which was consistently up), mixed in some good change-ups, and got a little better movement on his fastball. As a team, though, the Mets never did adjust to the Braves’ approach, e.g. by pitching inside.

What did you see?

Please share your observations in the comments!

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When Will We Ever Learn? Wishful Thinking and Wilpon Finances Lead to Mets Stall

Well it had to happen sometime. Those blue and orange shades I’ve had on since August of 2015 have come off. Unless you’ve been totally immersed in the Rangers-Habs series or trying to figure out if the Jets will use or trade the number six pick, you’ve probably taken yours off as well; especially after the massive train wreck that occurred this past weekend at Citi Field. The Mets have stalled and no one it seems, knows how to re-start their motor.

Call it panic, but you’ve heard it here first: The Mets will miss the playoffs. I don’t believe them to be anything better than a third place team this year. Based on what I’ve seen so far, both Washington and Miami have better teams than the Mets. And as far as the Mets surpassing the Yankees in popularity in New York City? Bawhahahahahahahahaha.

When the season started, many people, including myself, figured the Mets to be a playoff team, and gave them a better than even chance to win the division. The Mets themselves believed it. Check out the comments coming from both the front office and the clubhouse before and during spring training. Less than 20 games into the season, a new reality has dawned.

When will we ever learn?

The Mets have two very good players: Yoenis Cespedes and Noah Syndergaard. It speaks volumes about the Mets player development system that both guys came from outside the organization. Syndergaard is the undisputable ace of the Mets pitching staff. More on that in a moment. Cespedes is the Mets best hitter. Now, name the second-best hitter on the team. Go ahead, I’ll wait.

That title goes to Asdrubal Cabrera. It’s not Jay Bruce. Don’t let two stellar games from Bruce fool you. Career-wise, Cabrera is the better hitter. I’d actually put Curtis Granderson ahead of Bruce. We can argue this point all day, the issue is that after Cespedes, the Mets offensive prowess falls off a cliff. Cabrera is good, but c’mon, I highly doubt he strikes much fear in the hearts of the opposition when he strides to the plate. They had the perfect compliment to Cespedes in their lineup, you just saw him this weekend. They knew how good he was becoming and they let him walk away anyway , all but telling us they had his successor in the system. Instead they traded this heir apparent to Cincinnati to get Bruce. The second action is unrelated to the first action, but letting Daniel Murphy walk away cost the Mets the NL East crown last year and is one of the biggest reasons they will miss the playoffs this year. And why? Because they thought they could get the same type of production for less money. They didn’t. Wishful thinking seems to have replaced solid planning.

They wished that David Wright would somehow heal and become a reasonable facsimile of his former self. Wrong. They wished that Jose Reyes at 33 still has something left and that his dismal stops in Toronto and Colorado were mirages. Wrong. They wished that Travis d’Arnaud, Lucas Duda, and Wilmer Flores would all somehow avoid the injury jinxes that have sidetracked their careers. Wrong. They wished Juan Lagares would finally learn to hit right handed pitching. Wrong (and he can’t hit lefties much either). About the only thing that has gone right, outside of Bruce’s hot start, is Michael Conforto. But in true Met fashion, they have been shoe-horning Conforto in the wrong spot in the lineup, both the batting order and on the field. A few oh-fers and watch what happens to the kid’s confidence. In fairness, almost everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong. But, you can’t tell me that any of this is totally unexpected, and should agree that to basically ignore the facts exposed by sabermetrics and medical reports is a very risky proposition. But don’t worry, they all said, even if all that falls apart, the Mets still have that great starting pitching.

When will we ever learn?

No doubt that Syndergaard is the larger-than-life, as-good-as-advertised ace of the rotation. Jacob deGrom is well-suited as the understudy. I like Jake, but I think his ceiling is #2 starter, the modern day comparison to the Miracle Mets Jerry Koosman or Jon Matlack (yes I know both were lefties) behind Tom Seaver; or if you prefer the late 80’s, he’s this era’s Ron Darling to Doc Gooden. Unfortunately, I have witnessed many, many, many outings by Koos, Matlack and Darling where they pitched just well enough, as the saying goes, to lose. That description fits deGrom’s last two outings pretty well, don’t you think? But what about the other three or four “aces” they were supposed to have?

A pair of major surgeries have all but extinguished Matt Harvey’s brilliance. He seems quiet and humbled, both on the mound and in front of cameras. Not saying all of this is a bad thing, but right now Matt is the #3 pitcher on just about any good staff, including this one. The wish (there’s that word again) is just that he stays healthy. So far, so good; but it is a long season. Steven Matz hasn’t stayed healthy, and reading between the lines of the comments made by the GM Sandy Alderson and manager Terry Collins, I think the organization is entirely disillusioned with Matz, just as they were with erstwhile ace and first major Alderson acquisition Zack Wheeler. The later is still on the comeback trail and the jury is most definitely out on him. He had a golden opportunity last night to re-establish his star and one swing from Murphy ended that. The starting pitching isn’t that all that deep and the bullpen is in disarray, partially due to Jeurys Familia’s suspension, partly due to Collins’ poor handling of the others, and partly due to the wishful thought that they might not be relied upon so much. They should have held on to Bartolo Colon.

That last thought brings us to the real problem: ownership. Yes the Mets payroll has risen, most of it organically via annual pay raises, but they did shell out big bucks for Cespedes, Bruce and Neil Walker. But to paraphrase and old saying: you can lift a person out of the poorhouse, but you can’t lift the poorhouse out of the person. While the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Nationals do whatever it takes to win, whether it’s giving out big contracts to veterans or overpaying in prospects for needed pieces, the Mets still look for the way to save a buck. Re-think the roster with both Colon and Murphy still on it. How about the batting order with Adam Eaton at the top? It’s a compelling argument to hold on to young players. It looked great for example, when the Mets five starters combined were making less money than Mike Pelfrey. It looks far less smart when the team still lacks a true leadoff hitter (and any speed at all) lacks a true #3 hitter, lacks a true #5 hitter, and has no one reliable coming off the bench. The problem comes back the credibility issue–both with the front office and with ownership.

It now begins to clearly appear that the real reason for this youth movement is to depress payroll. The Mets have been lucky that Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom, et. al, have some star power. Up to now, this brilliance has eclipsed the flaws in the team’s makeup. Baseball has a very cruel way of exposing every hidden weakness. This April has been all about the Mets getting exposed. There is a definite spending threshold for these guys and by all indications, it  falls below what it’s going to take to bring home the championship. All of this winter’s moves where made with an eye on future payrolls. That might be great from an accounting standpoint, but from a winning while the window is open standpoint, it really stinks.

Fortunately it is still April. There is plenty of baseball left. Cespedes is capable of putting the offense on his back. Conforto could settle into a niche. The walking wounded can heal. Maybe the Mets decide that the time is right for uber-prospects Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith to be promoted (both have played more minor league games and have had more at-bats than Conforto did at the time of his promotion). Maybe GMs of other teams decide to run up the white flag and Alderson is able to import some help. Maybe…

When will we ever learn?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Third Rotation

The Mets’ hopes for 2017 rest in large part on their starting pitching staff. Is this quintet a major strength which can carry the team? Or do various health and effectiveness concerns place them somewhere short of that status? Let’s take a look at the third rotation through the Mets’ (hopefully) fab five and note what we’ve seen.

 IPHRERBBKHRP 
Syndergaard662104087
deGrom7422113297
Harvey672125092
Wheeler541127199
Gsellman763317099

What I saw

Noah Syndergaard

Much like his in first two starts, Syndergaard’s velocity and fastball command were good but not at their best. He didn’t look dominant, but the Marlins didn’t hit him hard either. He threw more two-seamers than usual, with great movement but poor location (the pitch to the glove side consistently ran back over the middle). Three great signs: a 100 mph fastball up and in to put away Christian Yelich; a slow motion clip of his motion in which his arm is not nearly as late as it used to be; and the fact that the Marlins only attempted one stolen base. Hopefully the torn fingernails that forced Noah from the game were a one-time concern.

Jacob deGrom

I didn’t see the familiar deGrom motion. He was staying taller through his delivery, possibly getting less extension, and producing less obvious run on his fastball. After a few yanked pitches to the glove side, a few bad breaking balls, and an atypical reliance on two-seamers, I was pessimistic about Jacob’s outing. Then he got angry and established an absolutely dominant groove, striking out 13, many of those on fastballs.

It looked like deGrom was headed for his first win until Collins left in a gassed Fernando Salas to face Yelich as the tying run and Yelich hit one into the upper deck.

Matt Harvey

Harvey had great life on his fastball, and mostly commanded it well at 94-95 mph. His slider had good tilt and depth. He mixed in a few good curves, but not many, and his change-up wasn’t a major factor (he got some up early and may have decided to stay away from it). Matt arguably faced more adversity in this start than his previous ones, and it was nice to see him come through this test without the sort of collapse that became routine in 2016. His command did look a bit worse with men on, but it wasn’t anything catastrophic.

Zack Wheeler

I didn’t see this one live, but all the plays I saw with Zack on the mound in the condensed game video clip seemed to come on 3-2 pitches. Wheeler’s pitch count reached 86 through 4 innings. Unwelcome shades of 2014.

Robert Gsellman

Gsellman repeatedly froze lefties with the Bartolo Colon come-back two-seamer to the inside corner. He also snapped off some sharp curveballs. Robert didn’t throw quite enough strikes with his secondary pitches to keep hitters off the fastball – his slider in particular was mostly in the dirt – but he was still effective, and looked strong through 7 innings and 98 pitches.

What did you see?

Please share your observations in the comments!

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Second Rotation

The Mets’ hopes for 2017 rest in large part on their starting pitching staff, which has the potential to blow the competition away… if they stay healthy. Let’s take a look at the second rotation through the Mets’ (hopefully) fab five and note what we’ve seen.

 IPHRERBBKHRP 
Syndergaard7521090103W
deGrom662223096
Harvey5.252216192W
Wheeler5.243314085W
Gsellman4.258835197

What I saw

Noah Syndergaard

Syndergaard finally brought back his curveball, and his full mix of pitches was too much for the Marlins to handle. Noah had trouble getting his fastball down, but his gas often works better upstairs anyway. A dominant outing, with the final line marred only by one bad pitch to Dee Gordon.

Jacob deGrom

Jacob’s fastball was flat, and even when he located it at 95, hitters were able to foul it back. The only other times I’ve seen the pitch lack its signature late life were when deGrom was injured (with the last 3 starts of 2016 being the prime example).

His secondary stuff was up in the first inning, but he got it down after that (though not the fastball) and pitched five good innings on primarily curveballs and change-ups. As Ron Darling said, even deGrom’s bad starts are pretty good.

Matt Harvey

Harvey didn’t show any consistent ability to locate his fastball, but the pitch was 94+ with great life, and his arm swing looked more free and easy to me. His secondary stuff featured the sharpest downward break I’ve ever seen from Matt, though it was often in the dirt.

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler took a huge step forward. Just like his first start, he threw plenty of strikes, but this time he mixed in effective breaking balls. Despite occasionally yanking or spiking a pitch, Zack’s location was solid overall, with lots of sinkers at the knees generating easy ground balls. Not his most dominant performance, but arguably the best I’ve ever seen him pitch… for the first 5 innings. In the 6th he had nothing, and Collins left him out there to load the bases anyway. (Which Hansel Robles promptly un-loaded via a grand slam meatball to Maikel Franco, turning Wheeler’s line from 0 earned runs to 3.) In non-contact sports, injury generally occurs when pushing past the point of fatigue, and Wheeler threw a dozen or so offerings after losing all ability to finish his pitches.

Ron Darling made the excellent point that managing to the pitch count has this downside: not only do managers pull a guy who’s cruising because the pitch count gets too high, they’ll also leave in a guy who’s gassed because the pitch count looks low.

Note: The Phillies fouled off a few short-breaking, high-velocity sliders, leading me to wonder: Are all five Met righties throwing the Warthen slider now? And if so, are opponents going to get used to it?

Robert Gsellman

Fastball command continued to be a problem for Gsellman. To his arm side, it was occasionally unhittable and otherwise okay, but to his glove side it was flat and up. Unfortunately, d’Arnaud kept calling for that pitch, even after Gsellman had carved up some Marlins hitters with his curveball. The curve was great all night until Robert tried to throw it on a 3-2 count with the bases loaded and it didn’t break.

His line looks horrible, but he retired the Marlins in order in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th innings. The first 4 runs he allowed were the result of an error that was bizarrely scored a hit, and one bad pitch to Marcell Ozuna for a two-out grand slam. Then in the 5th he was left in after running out of gas, much like Wheeler.

What did you see?

Please share your observations in the comments!

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Our “Streaky” GM

Enjoying this hot streak? Living so close the Philadelphia, I sure am. Some silver-haired manager, I think it was either Tommy Lasorda or Whitey Herzog, once made a remark to the effect that you are never as good as you look when you are winning; nor are you as bad as you look when you are losing. The Met lineup, from top to bottom (and on the bench), is full of streaky hitters. After what seems like an interminable period of waving at outside breaking balls or popping weakly to corner infielders in foul ground, they will get white-hot, not only hitting homers in bunches, but also grounders that squirt through shifts or bloopers that fall in front of outfielders playing deep.

The most famous of these hot streaks was by one Daniel Thomas Murphy in the 2015 NLDS and NLCS. Unfortunately, he cooled off in the World Series (thanks Sports Illustrated), but all of his former teammates/current Mets are also guilty as charged. These up and down streaks have served the Mets well, at the end of the season many of the players end up with better than respectable power numbers and as the team’s PR shrills remind us on a daily basis, this Mets squad has made the postseason for consecutive years for only the second time in team history.

But, wanna know what Met has been on the biggest hot streak lately? Try GM Sandy Alderson. For years it seemed, he whiffed on his acquisitions, as you can read about that here. Then something happened. He made a few minor deals with Atlanta and Oakland in July of 2015. Those trades may have been the equivalent of taking extra BP. It was as if he flipped the switch and became the hottest GM on the planet. He had the incredible good luck of the Carlos Gomez deal falling through, which paved the way for his signature (to date) trade for Yoenis Cespedes. Yes was a costly trade, but Cespedes has emerged as this era’s Keith Hernandez or Mike Piazza. Like those two icons, the day Cespedes stepped onto the field wearing a Mets uniform, the team was elevated to true contender status.

Since then? Well, Alderson stole Addison Reed from the Diamondbacks (anybody remember that he claimed Mark Rzepczynski from the Padres a few hours before the Reed trade, only to have the Friars pull him back?) He let Murphy walk, which in retrospect was a bad move, but few of us minded at the time. He lost out on Ben Zobrist, but made a pair of good moves, getting Neil Walker for Jon Niese and signing Asdrubal Cabrerra to a very-team friendly deal. He correctly gauged the market for Cespedes not once, but twice. Antonio Bastardo was a mistake, but he was able to cut bait on him rather quickly. Nobody, including me, liked the Jay Bruce deal, but give Alderson credit: he stuck to his guns all winter in trade discussions. I’ll bet either Baltimore or the Giants would be very glad to re-open negotiations on that deal now. He has also been patient with Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas and as a result, along with Reed, the Mets have a solid late inning bullpen that is costing them less per year than what the Yankees are paying Aroldis Chapman.

Alderson hasn’t been perfect (see Murphy), but he has been right and probably more than a bit lucky a lot more in the past 18 months than he was in the previous 55 months as Mets GM. Not only that, but he stuck to his principles, not trading then under-the-radar prospects like Jacob deGrom or Robert Gsellman for veteran filler when the team was really tanking.

He’s hot right now. But even the great Frank Cashen, the architect of the last Mets World Championship went cold again. Cashen’s hot streak went from June of 1983 when he traded for Hernandez until December of 1986 when he traded Kevin Mitchell away. That marked the beginning of an ill-fated dismantling of a potential dynasty. For the record, Cashen’s hot streak lasted just about 40 months.

Here’s to another twenty-two good months from the current Mets GM.

 

 

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Baseball Instruction from OnBaseball
Mets Pitching Injuries NOT Due to 2015 Hangover

Mets Pitching Injuries NOT Due to 2015 Hangover

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The latest in a series of arm injuries suffered by Mets starting pitchers has struck Jacob deGrom, who will miss his next start due to forearm tightness and elbow inflammation. ...

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Matz Shoulder and Elbow Issues Directly Related

Matz Shoulder and Elbow Issues Directly Related

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Steven Matz has been pitching nearly the entire season with an elbow issue -- going back to the forearm tightness he experienced way back in early May. The forearm tightness ...

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What’s NOT Wrong with Matt Harvey and How To Fix What Is

What’s NOT Wrong with Matt Harvey and How To Fix What Is

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Tonight Matt Harvey faces Stephen Strasburg. Normally that would be an exciting sentence for Mets fans, Nationals fans -- heck, baseball fans in general. Instead, it's a ...

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How Zack Wheeler Could Have Avoided Tommy John Surgery

How Zack Wheeler Could Have Avoided Tommy John Surgery

The good news: Zack Wheeler underwent "successful" Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL tendon and a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow. "He is expected to make a full ...

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Why There Are So Many Pitching Injuries This Time Of Year

Why There Are So Many Pitching Injuries This Time Of Year

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More pitching injuries occur from spring training through the first month of the season -- do you know why? There is at least one reason, and despite what you may remember of Tim ...

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Mets Gifts

This Looks Like it Could Be a MetsToday Hat

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This hat is called Nike New York Mets Royal Blue Heritage 86 Cooperstown Vintage Relaxed Mesh Back Adjustable Hat I kind of like the logo, don't you? Not sure I'm ready to go back to the mesh back and adjustable snap-back style that I wore exclusively from age 6 to 18. Retro is cool, I guess, but, isn't it lame ...

My Nephew Says This Mets Hat is the Bomb

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I need a new baseball cap; my old Mets hats were worn out and gross and have been donated to charity. So I'm in the market for one. My nephew says the above Mets cap is "the bomb." It's called the New York Mets Nike Royal L91 Alpha Swoosh Relaxed Flex Hat. If you like it, click on the hat and it will take you to ...