What Do We Blame It On This Year?
Ever since the knee-wobbling Adam Wainwright curve that froze Carlos Beltran in October 2006 (a-ha! that’s how he broke his knee!), the Mets have had very distinct “reasons” for not making the playoffs.
In 2007, it was the “lack of an ace”, which in turn allowed The Collapse to happen.
In 2008, it was “the bullpen” (and not the way Jerry Manuel “managed” it).
In 2009, it was “the injuries”
In 2010, it is ….. ?
We need to know what “it” is, and it needs to be specific — otherwise, what will Omar Minaya and co. do this offseason? They need something to “address” during the winter, and placate we angry fans. If they don’t fix anything, we won’t be inclined to buy 2011 season tickets, after all.
Post in the comments what you think will be spun as the thing that needs to be fixed this offseason.
Mets Game 133: Loss to Braves
Braves 4 Mets 1
We were hoping for a sweep, and depending on what happens in game four, we just might get one. Unfortunately, it won’t be the Mets pushing the broom.
Game Notes
Mike Pelfrey struggled in the early innings, allowing the Braves to build a lead that the feeble Mets offense could not surmount.
The Braves were hitting him solidly, mainly because Pelfrey was up with his pitches and getting too much of the middle of the plate. Also, I think Pelfrey may be tipping his pitches, based on the fact that his follow-through is usually different depending on the pitch he throws. Most of the time, if his follow-through turns his face and body completely toward first base, it is a fastball (though on occasion it is a curve). When he finishes more straight and facing home plate, it is either a change-up / forkball or a curve — i.e., something off-speed. Obviously, the follow-through is too late for a batter to identify the pitch, but Pelfrey has to be doing something earlier in his motion that results in those different finishes. Since we never, ever get a camera view from behind home plate, it’s hard to say what exactly the hitters are seeing. It could be as simple as an extra twist of his front shoulder, his chin moving slightly backward, or something with the movement of his hands — something he does early affects the end result (for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction). My guess is that batters are picking up on whatever it is, and though they may not know the location of the pitch, they may have a good idea of the velocity that’s coming — which nullifies the strategy of keeping a batter off-balance by changing speeds.
Tommy Hanson pitched well, but watching his mechanics make me squirm. It looks like his arm is going to fly right off his body, the way he stays upright and uses arm speed for velocity and curveball spin. Because he doesn’t allow his head and body to drive forward and down, all of the deceleration of his arm is absorbed by the shoulder rather than the legs. Though his genetics could overcome his mechanics, if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t bet that Hanson will stay healthy over the next few years.
Lucas Duda made his Major League debut in this game, and the ball couldn’t stop finding him — it seemed like he touched it about 15 times. To his credit, he handled the workout flawlessly, looking impressive on a few plays. Every time the camera focused on him, though, “Puttin’ on the Ritz” went through my head — he kind of has this Peter Boyle thing going on — Boyle with a surfer dude twist. He is a big boy who may have some wallop in his bat, so it should be fun to watch him this month and see what happens.
If I’m walking down a dark alley, I want Duda and Mike Hessman on either side of me.
Freddie Freeman also made his big-league debut, playing first base for the Braves. He kind of has a young Chipper Jones thing going on, which doesn’t bode well for Mets fans.
Jason Heyward went 4-for-4 with two doubles, a run, and an RBI, and nearly stole second base without a pitch being thrown. His strike zone judgment and ability to hit the other way are extremely impressive for a 21-year-old — his approach is like that of a ten-year veteran. I am trying hard not to refer to him as “Ironhead”.
Did you know “J-Hey” was born in Ridgewood, NJ? Not sure how he ended up in Georgia — must be kind of like how Derek Jeter was born in Pequannock, NJ.
Jeez, those Braves have a bunch of youngsters with talent — Freeman, Heyward, Hanson, Jonny Venters, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor, Eric O’Flaherty … and LHP Mike Dunn coming up next. Kind of reminds me of the all the youngins’ on the Mets right now, only different.
The Mets had two hits in the game. TWO. On the bright side, a lack of baserunners meant there were only 3 LOB.
Next Mets Game
The final game of this wretched four-game set occurs at 7:10 PM on Thursday night. Good thing it is also #CabernetDay on Twitter, as I have a feeling the Mets will drive me to drink. Johan Santana takes the mound against Tim Hudson.
Should Mets Pick Up Jeremy Hermida?
The Red Sox have released Jeremy Hermida, who had been playing for AAA Pawtucket.
You may remember Hermida as a young, talented outfielder for the Florida Marlins who never quite fulfilled expectations for one reason or another. He is now a 26-year-old outfielder who has been deemed an eternal enigma by Boston and cut loose.
Should the Mets take a flyer on him?
He was an elite prospect at one time, breaking into the bigs as a 21-year-old. He enjoyed a breakout season at age 23 in 2007, hitting .296 with a .383 OBP and .870 OPS, swatting 18 HR in 429 ABs. But he took steps backward the next two years, and was traded to the Red Sox last November for two suspects.
Clearly, Hermida is at a crossroads in his career; at this point he will either become another Mike Jacobs or the next Raul Ibanez.
With Jeff Francoeur on his way to Texas and Angel Pagan out with a sore wrist, would it hurt to pick up Hermida and give him a look in one of the corners for the last few weeks of the season? I know Mets fans would rather see Lucas Duda get ABs, but there is room for both to get looks — particularly if the Mets shut down Carlos Beltran, which should be considered if he continues to resemble Willie Mays circa 1973 in centerfield.
Hermida is a big kid with big talent, who still is young enough to turn it around, and will cost nothing. What do the Mets have to lose?
Dodgers Get Manny For Nuttin’
You may have seen that the Chicago White Sox claimed Manny Ramirez on waivers.
You may also have noticed that the Dodgers asked for absolutely nothing in return — the ChiSox took on Manny and the remaining $4M of his contract free and clear.
I know, I know — it’s all moot now, since the Mets are a dozen games behind. But when Manny first went on waivers, Omar Minaya insisted the Mets still “had a chance” at making the playoffs. Without a shadow of a doubt, the one glaring issue holding them back at the time was a lack of offensive production. For all the baggage Manny brings to a team, he also brings a big bat. Even in his current underperforming state, he still would have walked into Flushing as the best hitter in the lineup. And getting him would not have cost a prospect, as so many fans had been concerned about. It would’ve cost nothing, in fact, except the one thing the Mets supposedly have: cash.
But the Mets didn’t claim him. Therefore, Minaya lied about believing the team was still “in it” and Jeff Wilpon also lied, since he consistently insisted that money was not an issue. Because if indeed the Mets had money to spend, and believed they could still salvage September, Manny would have been a Met right now.
On the one hand, it doesn’t matter because we all knew long ago that this team wouldn’t be playing October games. But on the other hand, it does matter because yet again the ownership and management has played us for fools.
Thank you sir, may I have another?
Mets Trade Jeff Francoeur to Rangers
According to various sources, the Mets have traded Jeff Francoeur to the Texas Rangers for middle infielder Joaquin Arias.
Jeff Francoeur ended his Mets career as their cleanup hitter. There’s something wrong with that, isn’t there? Though, it is in line with the Mets starting their season with Mike Jacobs in that lineup spot.
So in the end, the Mets ultimately turned Lastings Milledge into Joaquin Arias. Well, at least Arias was once traded for Alex Rodriguez.
With Arias on the club, how the heck are the Mets going to find at-bats for Luis Hernandez?
In other news, the Mets announced that Lucas Duda and Jenrry Mejia have been promoted to the big club.
Mets Game 132: Loss to Braves
Braves 9 Mets 2
Time to wave the white flag … where is General Sherman when you need him?
Game Notes
Jonathon Niese gave up 8 runs on 10 hits and 2 walks in 4 2/3 innings, but only three of the runs were earned thanks to a botched grounder by Luis Castillo — that would’ve been an inning-ending DP. Even though the error opened up the floodgates, Niese likely was going to lose this game anyway, as he had much less than his best stuff and labored nearly every inning (not to mention it was the Mets offense supporting him). Niese threw a handful of decent sliders but didn’t have full command of the pitch, had trouble spotting the fastball, and his curveball was inconsistent, either hanging or not breaking at all, only occasionally getting the good bite needed to get swings and misses / jellied knees. On a positive note, he worked his way out of trouble several times — if we’ve learned one thing from Niese it is that he is a competitor. However all the battles led to a soaring pitch count, and, when given enough chances, the opposition is likely to eventually take advantage. Case in point: weak-hitting David Ross blasted a grand-slam on Niese’s 41st pitch of the fifth frame.
While we’re on the subject, a pitcher simply shouldn’t be out there for that long, at any level — and that’s coming from someone who is a stauch opponent of pitch counts. Pushing a pitcher far beyond 30 pitches in one inning is asking for injury.
Speaking of grand slams, Ross’ granny was the Braves’ 10th of the year. In contrast, the Mets scored two runs with the bases loaded, both on sac flies, and are hitting .194 with a .477 OPS as a team in that situation — worst in MLB by far. In contrast, the Yankees are hitting .400 / 1.106 with the bases juiced; the next-worst teams after the Mets are the Rockies, who are .210 / .620, and the Mariners at .214 / .584.
For some reason, seeing Derrek Lee in a Braves uniform reminds me of Fred McGriff in his Atlanta years; Lee to me is like a rightanded-hitting Crime Dog.
Mets are now 12 games behind the Braves, and they officially stink. Ten Tug McGraws couldn’t make me — nor this team — believe.
Next Mets Game
Game three happens at 7:10 PM in Atlanta. Mike Pelfrey pitches against Tommy Hanson.
Mets Game 131: Loss to Braves
Braves 9 Mets 3
The Mets lost. But on the bright side, we were given proof that Oliver Perez was NOT kidnapped.
Game Notes
Mets starter Pat Misch was not good, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits in only 3 innings. Elmer Dessens was better in his bailout role, shutting out the Braves in a pair of frames. The only other pitcher the Braves didn’t reach for a run was Ryota Igarashi, who pitched a scoreless ninth.
Speaking of relievers, Oliver Perez made an appearance, giving up one run, one hit, and two walks — it was his first appearance in an MLB-high 25 consecutive games. The one hit he allowed was a solo homer by Brian McCann; so much for the hope that Ollie could be a LOOGY.
The scary thing is, the Braves should’ve scored at least a few more runs — they seemed to constantly have runners on base with none out and left 7 on base. But the Mets were almost doubly ineffective, with 12 LOB and a combined 1-for-14 with RISP. That has nothing to do with approach nor the hitting coach, though — it’s all bad luck and bad skill sets.
The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 63 of their 131 games.
Jeff Francoeur was the only Met with two hits and he scored two runs. He was also the only Met to be the target of a Coke bottle tosser.
Josh Thole hit a triple to drive in Francoeur for one of those runs.
There isn’t much else positive to discuss on the Mets side so I’ll mention that Jason Heyward went 4-for-5 with a homerun, 3 runs scored, and 4 RBI. If Bobby Cox sat him, the Mets might’ve lost by only a couple runs instead of six.
I still can’t tell the difference between Omar Infante and Martin Prado, but they are definitely two different people, because one is always on base and the other is always driving him in.
Next Mets Game
Game two in Hotlanta begins at 7:10 PM on Tuesday night. Jonathon Niese faces Mike Minor, who is now in the Majors.
Monday Afternoon Link Dump
ESPN-NY – Mark Simon compares Ike Davis to John Olerud, inducing me to scream.
Amazin’ Avenue – Eric Simon uses numbers and a graph to support what we all kind of suspected: the Mets don’t score many runs. And he mentions Chico Walker, which is reason enough to read the article.
Neil Best via Twitter – Good news for Mets fans! There will be PLENTY of very affordable tickets available for those meaning(less)ful games in September! (And you think I’m always negative)
The Real Dirty – TRS86 describes “The Omar Effect”, which essentially explains how a certain GM in Flushing may as well use a dartboard to plan each season. Although it has no bearing, I had a TRS-80 in junior high.
MetsmerizedOnline – Also in regard to planning, Joe D learns of another way to describe the Mets’ strategy — as “chasing their own tails” — which he discovered while reading an article describing David Wright’s “hunger”. Hmm … maybe we’ll see David doing ‘Hungry Man’ commercials soon; that would be more appropriate than seeing him behind the wheel of a Lincoln.
It could be something like this, and he could do it with, say, R.A. Dickey:
The Problem with Prospect Rankings
I have been following Amazin Avenue’s Community Prospect List. It appears that Kirk Nieuwenhuis has emerged as the consensus number-two prospect in the system behind Wilmer Flores. I am not saying I disagree with the ranking, but I will say, if accurate, it is more a testament to the weakness of the Mets farm system, than it is a fair reflection of Nieuwenhuis’s talent, which really would not be number-two worthy in most organizations.
I really brought this up, though, because I find it interesting how Sean Ratliff, who profiles very similarly to Nieuwenhuis, has yet to appear on the list (AA is voting on number eight, and Ratliff is sixth in the voting for that spot last time I checked), and people still shy away from calling him a top-ten prospect. In fairness, Nieuwenhuis has a lengthier track record of success, while Ratliff, aside from his two-and-a-half months in Binghamton, was a non-prospect.
If you compare their production with AA Binghamton, however, there is no comparison. Ratliff has vastly outperformed Nieuwenhuis:
Ratliff: 272 PA .332/.379/.614/.993 OPS. .426 wOBA .275 ISOP 7% BB% 23.5% K%
Nieuwenhuis: 430 PA .289/.337/.510/.371 wOBA .220 ISOP 6.7% BB% 21.6% K%
Yes, Nieuwehuis has a larger sample size, and for what it’s worth he is six months younger than Ratliff, but I do not think either of those facts compensate for an over 50 point disparity in wOBA, or an almost 150 point difference in OPS. Nieuwenhuis has also struggled mightily since being promoted to Buffalo (.195/.264/.329 in 91 PA).
Also, while his strikeout rate has remained on the high-end during his time in Binghamton, check out Ratliff’s walk rate over that span:
June (67 PA): 3%
July (123 PA): 4.1%
August (82 PA): 14.6%
The dude basically went from Jeff Francoeur to Adam Dunn in a month. I am guessing that has a lot to do with the fact pitchers are finally pitching around the new and improved Ratliff, but it is interesting nonetheless.
Both players are regarded as athletic outfielders, that may or may not have the range to stick in center field.
It is difficult to rank the Mets farm system. I think Reese Havens and Zach Lutz are far superior to Ratliff and Nieuwenhuis when they’re on the field, but neither of them has proven they can stay healthy. Duda is the best pure hitter of the bunch and has stayed healthy, but he is also probably a below average corner outfielder. You could make a real radical statement and say Darrell Ceciliani or Aderlin Rodriguez is the best of the bunch, but they carry with them a lot of downside. Then you have to factor in pitchers like Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey, and suddenly you have nine guys with no obvious advantage over each other.
And that is the problem with rankings. They add the illusion of distinction when, sometimes, as in this case, none is warranted. At the same time, that is what makes it fun, challenging, and let’s face, gives it real world pertinence. Out of the nine, one might blossom into a superstar, one or two of them might pull a Brad Holt next year, and you wonder why they were ever considered prospects in the first place, and the rest will end up in between. As a general manager, most of them are your trade chips, and you have to remember prospects get you fired, lest you end up looking like Steve Phillips.
Mets Game 130: Win Over Astros
Mets 5 Astros 1
Back to .500 — now what?
Game Notes
R.A. Dickey was his usual spectacular self, setting down the ‘stros through seven stellar innings, allowing just six hits, two walks, and one run. Should we now be expecting him to pitch this way?
Josh Thole was the offensive star of the ballgame, hitting a double, a solo homer, walking once, and scoring twice. Dickey helped himself by going 2-for-3 with 2 RBI and a run. Maybe he should get a crack at left field.
Freshly called up shortstop Luis Hernandez played shortstop instead of Ruben Tejada. Very strange, since Tejada was on a hot streak — he had a walk, a hit, and an RBI in his last three plate appearances. The poor kid finally gets the bat going and he’s sent to the bench — what sense does that make?
Next Mets Game
The Mets fly down to Atlanta to begin a crucial four-game series against the first-place Braves on Monday night, with first pitch at 7:10 PM. Pat Misch faces Jair Jurrjens. If the Mets can sweep the Braves, they will cut Atlanta’s lead to only six-and-a-half games with 28 to play — not an insurmountable gap (just ask the 2007 Mets).
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