The Curious Case of Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

Kudos to Sandy Alderson and the Wilpons on retaining the services of one Yoenis Cespedes. At “only” $110 million for four years, the deal has a chance to not be too terrible, or at least only terrible for a season or so. While Cespedes isn’t the ideal major league player, he fits with the Mets well.

Like perhaps many of you, I felt a shudder run through me when I read about the potential for Cespedes to pull in a 6 or 7 year deal, with an upwards of $150 million price tag. So, good job by the Mets to get this done at a rate that won’t leave Cespedes a baseball pauper (and may allow him to get one more lucrative contract before he retires), but doesn’t hamstring the team’s finances in the process. The fact that the deal was done before the calendar flips to December also gives the Mets the bulk of the remaining off-season to fill the other issues with their roster.

That however is where it gets tricky. The Mets still have a few holes to fill and they most likely will need to fill them in exchange for assets they already possess. In the past, Alderson has steadfastly refused to part with any of his young pitching (at least during the winter), so it is unlikely that he does so again this year. Injuries to several of those pitchers has more than likely lowered their value, making it even less probable that Alderson deals one of them.

Jay Bruce is probably a lock to be moved and soon, but I would be utterly shocked if The Mets received anything in return that resembled a missing piece to their 2017 puzzle, especially if they want their trading partner to pick up all of Bruce’s remaining salary. Curtis Granderson may garner some interest, but can you really see them trading away baseball’s 2016 Man of The Year? Me neither.

Which brings us to Mr. Conforto. Taken with the 10th pick of the June 2014 draft, he zoomed through the Mets system and was playing left field in the majors barely 13 months later. In fact, when the Mets dealt for Cespedes less than a week after Conforto’s arrival, they kept Conforto in left and moved Cespedes to center. Michael enjoyed a solid rookie season, slashing 270/335/506. He tailed off a bit in the NLDS and NLCS, but carried himself well in the World Series, hitting pair of homers. He began 2016 as the starting leftfielder (Cespedes stayed in center), but after a hot April, he just seemed to lose it. He hit .173 from May 1 on with a .255 OBP and was twice sent to AAA Las Vegas. The Mets left him off the roster for the Wild Card Game.

Hard to pinpoint exactly what happened, but the optics indicate a vulnerability to inside sliders, which was all he got a steady diet of from late April on. Those pitches don’t break in the hot, dry desert air the way they do at the major league level, he so while he put up video-game like numbers back in Vegas, he just struggled again upon his return to New York. It wasn’t exactly doing him any good to send him down, but they really had no other choice.

Conforto is a left fielder, pure and simple. He doesn’t run all that well and his throwing arm isn’t anything extraordinary. If he doesn’t hit, he isn’t even a replacement-level player. Last year, he didn’t hit. And with Cespedes locked up in left field until 2020, Conforto doesn’t really have a place to play. The Mets could stand an upgrade in center field, probably behind the plate and most definitely in late inning relief. Their lineup lacks speed. Could a trade of Conforto help fill at least two of those holes? If I’m Alderson, I’d be exploring that possibility.

On the plus side, Conforto is still young and has a great pedigree, both as a top draft pick as well as being the son of two elite athletes. He honed his craft at Oregon State, in a program that has produced over two dozen major league players. He has had some success at the major league level, and represents (on paper at least) a left-handed source of power, an desirable commodity that is in short supply right now. He also has five more seasons of team control. There is still a lot to like about him. Both the Mets and any potential trading partners will need to gamble on the veracity of his pedigree and 2015 performance vs. the reality that was his 2016 campaign. It could be a very interesting situation. A package of Conforto, one of the Mets surplus middle infielders and a lower-level arm might net a big fish in return.

Also, it wouldn’t be a Capwell Mets Today post without a little Mets history: back in the early 1970’s the Mets had a young outfielder whom they had drafted in 1967 and who was also (relative for that time) rushed to the big leagues. After a promising rookie campaign, he took a step backwards in his sophomore season, although his fall was not as dramatic as Conforto’s. That offseason, the Mets packaged him with other prospects in a big trade with the Montreal Expos for an established slugger. That young outfielder was named Ken Singleton and over the next 13 years he would average 282/388/436, and be named to three All Star teams. While his old team was floundering, he flourished away from Shea, finishing third in AL MVP voting in 1977 and then second in 1979 (The Expos traded him to Baltimore a year after getting him). The 1973 Mets were a win-now team and Rusty Staub, the player they got for Singleton and Co., did help them get to the World Series. So much time has passed since that it is difficult to gauge which was the better deal, the 1973 pennant or Singleton’s career, although in fairness, Singleton out-hit Staub in 1973. That deal, along with the rise of both Amos Otis and Nolan Ryan, also former Met farmhands, made the then nascent Mets fan me a “systems guy,” a strong proponent of building a team from within. 40-plus years later, I am more of a “win now” guy, probably due to the passage of time. On the flip side of the argument is Hubie Brooks, whom the Mets also traded after his sophomore season in a package for another Expos slugger. Even though Hubie would outhit the player the Mets acquired him for from the point of the trade until both had retired, this move proved to be the final piece in the Mets quest for a World Championship. The player the Mets got in return was Gary Carter.

So for me, it boils down to this: I favor a trade of Conforto if the return makes the team demonstrably better in 2017. If not, I guess I can live with Conforto in right and a Granderson/Juan Lagares platoon in center. I really hate the idea of playing Conforto in center. I am not too crazy about him in right either, but if he can rediscover his stroke, any defensive gaffs could probably be overlooked.

So what about you? Trade Conforto or keep him? Prefer him in center or in right? Remember Ken Singleton? Sound off below.

READ MORE +

Braves preempt market on innings-eaters

Dickey and Colon

In case you missed the news, the Atlanta Braves just made two player acquisition moves. News broke on Thursday that they had signed R.A. Dickey and on Friday that they had signed Bartolo Colon.

I think it’s a huge whiff on the Mets’ part to not bring back Colon. Was the team unprepared to negotiate? Was the $12.5M price tag way too steep? Were the Mets somehow not interested in Bart’s services?

Dickey would have been a fine back-up plan, another low-ceiling, high-floor innings-eater. But the Braves gobbled him up first.

I don’t think I need to be particularly pessimistic about the Mets’ young starters’ health to predict that we’ll be seeing a lot of innings from pitchers worse than Colon in 2017.

Plus, as a fan, it’s going to be hard for me to root against Dickey and Colon the 5 or so times the Mets face them this year.

Oh, and also, a division rival just got better.

As a Mets fan, I’m not happy with these developments, not one bit. What’s your reaction?

READ MORE +

If Hillary Clinton Were A Baseball Team….

…she’d be the 2007 New York Mets!

Remember the 2007 Mets? They sure had a lot of assets. Five All-Stars on their roster, including at least one future Hall of Famer. Power galore up and down their batting order and plenty of money to spend, thanks to an ownership flush with cash from their pal Bernie Madoff. They were heavy favorites to win it all, having won 97 games the year before and coming within one strike of a World Series berth. Presumably hungry over this near miss, they roared out to an early lead in the National League East. Some serious handicaps were ignored as well as the gathering storm just down I-95 in Philadelphia. In the bright and breezy days of late spring and early summer they glided through the season, not taking their opponents lightly, but no doubt thinking in their heart of hearts that this upstart Phillies team would peter out and that they would be in the winner’s circle at the end. Signs of trouble abounded but were dismissed.

Instead, disaster struck, the engines misfired and the pressure mounted. Unaccustomed and perhaps somewhat unprepared to making rapid and effective responses, they made some poor decisions and watched in panic as their big lead shrunk to single digits. The desperately eyed the calendar, hoping that time would run out on their opponents before their lead was entirely eradicated. It wasn’t to be, the Phillies caught them on the last week of the season. Then to add insult to injury, the Milwaukee Brewers elbowed them out of the playoffs entirely the season’s last day. I lived through all of this (just barely).

Remember Hillary Clinton? She sure had a lot of assets. Lots of passionate, loyal supporters, an experienced and politically savvy staff, a cozy relationship with many opinion-makers and a flush treasury. She was a heavy favorite to win it all, having come somewhat close back in 2008. Staked to a big lead early on, Clinton’s campaign and her supporters hoped that her more serious handicaps could be overcome by her not inconsiderable political assets. In the bright and breezy days of late spring and early summer, she glided through the process, not taking her opponent lightly, but no doubt thinking in their heart of hearts that this upstart blowhard would play out and that she would be in the winner’s circle at the end. Signs of trouble abounded but where ignored.

Instead, disaster struck, the engines misfired and the pressure mounted. Unaccustomed and perhaps somewhat unprepared to making rapid and effective responses, she made some poor decisions and watched in panic as her big lead shrunk to single digits. She desperately eyed the calendar, hoping that time would run out on her opponent before her lead was entirely eradicated. It wasn’t to be, the Donald caught her in the polls on the last week of the season. Then came last night. I still can’t believe it.

Who says baseball doesn’t imitate life? Or maybe its the other way around.

READ MORE +

Constructing the 2017 Mets

Wilson Ramos, Paul Goldschmidt

2017 finds the Mets roster in an awkward place, with enough strengths that contention is within reach but enough weaknesses that standing pat could prove fatal to the team’s chances. Alderson and co. have their work cut out for them.

Where to start?

Trades

The White Sox are finally rebuilding, and might move Chris Sale for the right package. I can’t think of any Mets options for Sale that don’t start with Amed Rosario, but how about aiming a little lower and going after Jose Quintana? Sell high on Seth Lugo as a potential replacement, and move Travis d’Arnaud while his slugging pedigree is still relatively recent. These two are supplemental pieces; the cornerstone of the trade would be Jay Bruce, giving the White Sox a much-needed OF/DH with power. The Mets could also offer the Sox some financial flexibility by taking James Shields and part of his salary. Shields may be done as a good starter, but with a move to the ‘pen and a little acclimation time in AAA, I’m sure he could become a lights-out reliever if he could regain the control he had for the first 9 years of his career.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, the Diamondbacks have crashed and changed management, leading me to wonder – is the time finally right to attempt a Paul Goldschmidt deal? The Mets can offer Lucas Duda to replace him, a fly ball hitter who should thrive in Arizona. The Mets can offer a high-ceiling pitcher or three. The Mets can offer a controllable young player who’s unlikely to become a huge asset, but would be a steal if he does. How about Steven Matz – Duda – Brandon NimmoZack Wheeler? This really depends on how much the D’backs like Matz. If they don’t, subbing in Quintana would be an option.

I’d also ask the D’backs to throw in Andrew Chafin, a groundball guy who developed strikeout ability last year but posted a 6.75 ERA due to what the advanced metrics see as awful luck.

These would be my key winter moves.

Then, in the spring, I’d make one more. With the games not mattering yet, and with a ton to prove, Matt Harvey will surely show up in the best shape of his life and be throwing 99 past hitters in spring training. That’s the time to trade him to an all-in contender like Boston for a young stud prospect like Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers. I don’t expect Harvey to thrive in New York going forward, whether for physical reasons or mental ones, and the Mets desperately need to deepen their ranks of potential impact players for the future.

Signings

The Mets need Yoenis Cespedes, and Cespedes seems to like the Mets, so I’d hope a deal could get done without any ridiculous behavior on either side, such as lowball offers from the Mets or 7-year demands from Team Yo.

That will leave the team with limited financial flexibility, and probably preclude major upgrades over the current roster at both primary positions of need, catcher and second base. My take is this: I liked having Neil Walker on the team, but his range was subpar and I doubt back problems bode well for a middle infielder’s future. At second base, the drop-off from Walker (the best-fitting free agent, as far as I’m aware) to what the Mets have now might not be that bad. The same is not true at catcher. I’d earmark the FA budget for Wilson Ramos and hope that no one gives him a crazy contract based just on 2016.

My 2017 Mets:

Lineup and Bench

1. 3B Jose Reyes
2. RF Curtis Granderson
3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
4. LF Yoenis Cespedes
5. C Wilson Ramos
6. SS Asdrubal Cabrera
7. 2B T.J. Rivera / Wilmer Flores / Ty Kelly / Matt Reynolds
8. CF Juan Lagares

• Sign Rajai Davis to sub for Grandy against lefties and pinch-run.
• If Michael Conforto earns playing time, give him time in RF with Grandy moving to CF and Lagares sitting.
• If David Wright refuses to retire, then whenever Reyes, Cabrera, or the 2B needs a day off, plug Wright in at 3B and move Reyes around as needed. David can also pinch-hit against lefties.

Starting Pitching

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Jacob deGrom
3. Jose Quintana
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Robert Gsellman

• Bring back R.A. Dickey to serve as swingman, long relief, and injury sub. The knuckleballer suffered from Rogers Centre for four years, and from having another knuckleballer in his division in 2016. If he can throw as many strikes as he did during his Mets time, he’ll thrive again in the N.L.

Bullpen

9. Jeurys Familia
8. Addison Reed
7. James Shields / Andrew Chafin / Rafael Montero

If Montero ever musters the courage to throw strikes, his fastball is sneaky and gets a lot of pop-ups. His change-up is deceptive, so when it’s moving, it’s a good second pitch. The slider is just enough to keep righties off the fastball.

Summing it Up

With Ramos providing improved offense and defense behind the plate (and not killing the Mets as an opponent), Goldschmidt anchoring the lineup and the infield, Quintana bringing an impeccable record of health and success, a few bullpen additions offering some 7th inning upside, and a new stud prospect or two bolstering the farm, I think the Mets would be in a great position for 2017 and beyond.

What do you think of these moves? Do you have some ideas of your own? Please let us know in the comments!

READ MORE +

1974: That Post-Championship Season–A Harbinger of Things to Come?

So, when the smoke clears from this year’s World Series, the Mets will have taken one step closer to an infamous distinction. The conclusion of the Fall Classic will vault the Mets into the top five of teams with the longest wait in between world championships. Along with the 2016 Series’ loser, you will have Pittsburgh (1979), Baltimore (1983), Detroit (1984) and then the Mets (1986) in the top five of teams still waiting for the next hoist of the trophy. While I believe the Mets have a legit shot at returning to and finally winning the World Series in 2017, their pathway back isn’t clear, at least from this vantage point.

I read and heard about several comparisons during the 2016 team’s six-week hot streak to a similar streak the 1973 Mets went on. Both teams were effectively buried by early August, only to rally around several returning injured players, some unlikely effective starters and a red hot bullpen; riding said combo all the way to the post season. A poor managerial decision (1973) and a flat slider (2016) doomed both endeavors before they reached the ultimate goal. One of the beauties/curses of baseball is that there is always next year. The 1974 team was built on the premise that the winning version of the previous year’s squad was the true team. A 71-91 record proved that theory to be wrong. I believe that Mets GM Sandy Alderson and manager Terry Collins could make the same assumption about the 2017 team, based on their own predilections of what a 25-man roster should look like.

The Anderson regime began with his pronouncement that he was opposed to lengthy second generation contracts that awarded players for what they did for previous teams. To his credit, he has mainly stuck to that premise, the only real departure being the contract he gave David Wright. While we all applauded Alderson’s early stance on these types of deals, I do wonder how happy any of us would be to see a lineup like this on Opening Day:

1. Curtis Granderson, cf
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, ss
3. Yoenis Cespedes, lf
4. Lucas Duda, 1b
5. Neil Walker, 2b
6. Jay Bruce, rf
7. David Wright, 3b
8. Travis d’Arnaud, c

That lineup depends on Alderson completing two of his top orders of business in the offseason, securing Cespedes and getting Walker to take the Qualifying Offer. But look at that lineup again. With the exception of Wright and Cespedes, there are six players with one-year deals, which has to be attractive to both Alderson and his bosses the Wilpons. Alderson’s track record reveals his commitment to power, which in theory at least, this lineup has in abundance. Plus, there is the half-myth of improved performances when playing for next year’s contract. It sets up the rest of the roster as well. Juan Lagares becomes the late inning defensive replacement, Brandon Nimmo takes over the Alexandro DeAza role and Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes act as super utility men, playing all over the infield (and perhaps in the case of Jose some outfield). From Collins’ standpoint, he gets his beloved left-right-left march through the batting order and he also gets to tinker with Reyes and Flores.

I am not condoning this lineup idea (at least not entirely) but I can see this as a distinct possibility. More on this shortly.

At first glance, it is appears that the reason the 1974 Mets didn’t repeat was their poor offense. That is partially true. They scored 40 less runs in ’74 than in the previous year and their slash line comparison from 1973 (246/315/358) to 1974 (235/311/329) does show a decline. But it was the bullpen and overall the failure of the pitching staff to maximize the paltry offensive production that they did get that sunk the 1974 Mets. They blew 40 leads in 1974 and won only 17 of the 53 one run games they played in (their 1973 counterparts won 31 one run games). One needs look no further than one Frank Edwin McGraw for the main culprit in the demise. The 1973 hero had a terrible 1974, with only three saves in 38 appearances, pitching to a 1.44 WHIP and a poor walk-to-strikeout ratio. In an early example of how historically inept the Mets medical staff has been, a cyst on his should was misdiagnosed and he was shipped off to the Phillies after the ’74 season. The cyst was removed,McGraw returned to form and soon, to the World Series with the Phils.

All of that personal angst aside, the Mets received solid bullpen work in 2016 from Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed. The latter has my vote for the 2016 Mets’ MVP. But for a variety of reasons, mainly overuse, I wonder just how much the Mets can and should depend on either pitcher. They need a substantial reinforcement here. Maybe not the Kenley Jansen fantasy that someone wrote about recently, but perhaps something along the lines of a Tyler Thornburg or a Brand Hand, although the former could cost the Mets dearly. They could bring back either Jerry Blevins or Fernando Salas (or both), but neither of them are probably suited for constant and multiple late inning appearances. The other likely options Josh Smoker, Hansel Robles and Josh Edgin, should not be considered for post-7th inning duty. And I wouldn’t be so fast to project any of the starting pitchers for a late inning role either.

I am not buying the line about the Mets having an excess of starting pitching. I think Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom will be fine at the top of the rotation, but from there it gets a little dicey. I wouldn’t count on both Steven Matz and Matt Harvey being 100% by the end of Spring Training. Harvey’s injury is serious and Matz seems to be always nicked up. Pencil in one of them for the #3 spot and hope. A lot of noise has been made about a return engagement for Bartolo Colon. We’ll take it at face value for now, at least until big Bart starts asking for a multi-year deal. Right now, my #5 starter is Robert Gsellman. Talk about a guy who came out of the woodwork. I realize this is Mets Today, but Gsellman passes the eye test, IMO. I am less sanguine about his running buddy Seth Lugo. Lugo’s peripherals and his minor league numbers are somewhat off-putting. Maybe Lugo’s curve lands him a spot in the bullpen. The final piece of the puzzle is Zack Wheeler, who not having thrown a pitch in a big league game in two years, probably needs to spend some time in AAA Las Vegas first.

It all starts with Cespedes. Like him or not, he is the lynchpin to the offseason. After a disastrous sophomore season, the Mets should be eyeing a long stint in Vegas for Michael Conforto. If Cespedes departs, his slot in the field goes to Conforto. With Cespedes, Duda and Bruce become second-tier sluggers, and in the case of Bruce, a potential trade candidate should the right offer occur. Otherwise, they become more vital components, which is a very disturbing thought. With Cespedes, they probably can pass on Walker if he refuses the QO, relying instead on Reyes, Wilmer and September hero TJ Rivera at second. Without Cespedes, they may need to gamble on a big deal with Walker, probably not daring to hope that the Reyes-Wilmer-TJR troika can produce a serviceable performance at second and pick up the power slack. Without Cespedes, they might not have the pieces they need to secure that lockdown reliever.

On the flip side, maybe change is good. Cespedes departs, the Mets pass on Walker and trade Bruce. They get a little faster, a little younger and a little less reliant on the 3-run homer. Maybe the pitching stays healthy and the bullpen stays solid and Daniel Murphy comes back to earth. Standing pat didn’t work in 1974. Maybe it won’t work in 2017 either. Like I said, it’s hard to see from this vantage point. What do you see from yours?

READ MORE +

The Last Mortgage Payment?

Just about anyone who has been a Met fan for more than six seconds has seen the clip. Mookie Wilson’s dribbler tying up Bill Buckner behind the first base bag and then rolling into the grass in right field. Meanwhile, Ray Knight rounds third and scores the winning run –barely beating third base coach Bud Harrelson to the plate. The Mets improbably win Game Six of the 1986 World Series. Two nights later they finish off the Red Sox and capture their second and to date their last, world championship. I know, I was there.

Let’s go back to that fateful Saturday night at old Shea. The Mets trail the Red Sox three games to two and have watched in disbelief as the Sox plated a pair of runs in the top of the 10th inning. The Mets had romped through the 1986 season, winning 108 games, survived a tough Houston Astros challenge in the NLCS and where heavily favored to beat the then still-cursed Red Sox in the Fall Classic. October 1986 was to be culmination of a five-year process that started with the franchise as the laughing stock of baseball and culminated with this superb season. That all seemed lost on October 25 with the Mets down two runs in the 10th and with their first two batters making outs. Everyone knows what happened next.

The improbability of that comeback has been dissected over and over since then. So why not again? In this version, the ghost of Casey Stengel, a kind of baseball version of Dickens’ Jacob Marley, appeared to owner Fred Wilpon and GM Frank Cashen before the bottom of the 10th and told them he could get it fixed, but it would cost’em. Maybe he told Fred the swap was for his first born son (that would be Jeff), but Fred, ever the canny real estate negotiator, instead settled on a 30-year mortgage. The document was quickly drawn up and signed. In a twinkling the Ol’ Perfessor vanished and the ball went between Buckner’s legs.

Then the 30-year payment plan began.

There has been Dwight Gooden’s drug rehab, Terry Pendleton’s homer, Mike Scioscia’s homer, Lenny Dykstra for Juan Samuel, Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Torborg, the rape scandal, the Worst Team Money Could Buy, Dwight Gooden’s second drug rehab (and subsequent rebirth in the Bronx), the Generation K fiasco, the Kenny Rogers walk, the 2000 Subway Series, the Beltran Strikeout, two collapses, Jeff running the team, Jerry Manuel, Jason Bay, a Ponzi scheme, Lucas Duda’s errant throw and finally Conor Gillaspie. Maybe Fred should have agreed to Stengel’s first offer.

This month marks the 30th anniversary of that fateful night.

In my mind, the Mets enter the offseason with two burning objectives. The first is to ascertain that Yoenis Cespedes stays a Met. He is this era’s Daryl Strawberry or Mike Piazza; the centerpiece of the batting order around which everything else hangs. I get the sense that everyone in the Met hierarchy from Jeff all the way down to the lowliest clubhouse attendant, understands Cespedes’ importance to the team. Unlike the acrimony that surrounded Strawberry’s 1990 departure, both Cespedes and the Mets seem to appreciate each other. I am somewhat confident that he will be back next year.

The other task is to trade and replace Jeurys Familia. Yeah he’s saved over 90 games in the past two years, but he has coughed up some doozies, last year’s World Series and this week’s Wild Card game being chief among them. He has now twice choked in the clutch, an unforgivable sin anywhere, but especially here. Given the recent haul teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Braves have gotten for their closers in the past few years, I’m betting the Mets could find similar gold for Familia. As to the new closer, Addison Reed could be one alternative, as could one of these suddenly surplus rotation arms. They could pick up a veteran for a stopgap. A bit more improbable, but not entirely impossible would be last year’s #1 draft pick Justin Dunn. He was Boston College’s closer, so the experience isn’t entirely new to him.

The Mets should enter 2017 deeper and more experienced than any Met team that I can remember. Thanks to some unlikely late-season heroics, they have an apparent surplus of capable players and can assemble a 25-man roster of players that can handle playing in New York. By most accounts, they still have a few more good pieces on the way as well. They have a manager, who love him or hate him, has proven equal to the challenge of a pennant chase and a front office that while making a few missteps here and there, has been willing and able to add the necessary components. The Mets window of contention is still open.

It’s been 30 years, so maybe the mortgage on the 1986 championship has finally been paid in full. For all our sakes, let’s hope so.

READ MORE +

So you wanted to root for an underdog…

Underdog Mets

Of course you did. You’re a Mets fan. You were aware of the other options, from the pinstriped team across town crowing about their 26 or 27 or 28 championships to the new hotness of the moment such as the 2008 Rays or the 2013 Blue Jays or the 2015 Padres. But each time you were reminded that there were more and better baseball teams beyond Queens, you said, “No thanks,” (or something less equanimous) and kept following the Mets. You have your reasons. I’m not going to try to list them all. But at this point, after the frustration and embarrassment and despair of 2007-2014, I feel pretty sure of one of them:

Because long odds make a victory that much sweeter.

This isn’t how 2016 was supposed to go, of course. 2016 was supposed to be Mets fans’ reward for keeping the faith from the Tom Glavine game in 2007 through the runs-free summer of 2015. In 2016, the Mets were supposed to be great, and only the possible also-greatness of the Nationals was supposed to keep the Mets from being *gasp* front runners.

MetsToday readers polled between April 7-11 predicted these win totals for the 2016 team: 101, 94, 93, 92, 92, 90, 90, 89, 88.

But these are the Mets. They don’t just make you earn your fan satisfaction decade by decade. They make you earn it year by year, month by month, sometimes day by day.

So of course Cy Young hopeful Matt Harvey fell apart mechanically and psychologically and had a rib removed. Of course Jacob deGrom frayed a nerve, and Steven Matz grew a new elbow bone, and clapping our hands three times and saying “Ya gotta believe!” didn’t heal David Wright‘s spine. Of course the Mets burned through plans A and B at most positions on the field.

A funny thing happened, though: plans C and D stepped up.

2016 WAR by position:

C

A) Travis d’Arnaud 0.0
B) Kevin Plawecki -0.1
C) Rene Rivera 0.4 (first game April 30)

1B

A) Lucas Duda 0.3
B) Eric Campbell -0.7
C) James Loney -0.3 (first game May 31)
D) Wilmer Flores 0.6

2B

A) Neil Walker 3.8
B) Kelly Johnson 0.3 (first game June 11)
C) Wilmer Flores -0.1
D) T.J. Rivera 0.7 (MLB debut August 10)

SS

A) Asdrubal Cabrera 2.7
B) Matt Reynolds 0.0 (MLB debut May 17)
C) Jose Reyes 0.1

3B

A) David Wright 0.5
B) Ty Kelly 0.1
C) Wilmer Flores 0.6
D) Jose Reyes 1.1 (first game July 5)

RF

A) Curtis Granderson 1.5
B) Brandon Nimmo -0.1 (MLB debut June 26)
C) Jay Bruce 0.3 (first game August 1)

CF

A) Yoenis Cespedes 1.7
B) Juan Lagares 0.5
C) Michael Conforto 0.2
D) Justin Ruggiano 0.2 (first game July 30)
E) Alejandro De Aza 0.1
F) Curtis Granderson 1.5

LF

A) Michael Conforto 0.6
B) Brandon Nimmo 0.0
C) Yoenis Cespedes 1.1
D) Ty Kelly 0.6 (MLB debut May 24)

A third-choice catcher, fourth-choice third baseman, fourth-choice first baseman, and sixth-choice center fielder? This is the stuff of “poor us” teams, not playoff teams.

With Neil Walker lost for the season, along with two of the Mets’ top 4 starting pitchers (Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz), it’s gotten even crazier during the stretch run, as second base plan D T.J. Rivera and rotation plans F and G Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have taken on vital roles.

Mets fans, this isn’t what you hoped for, but doesn’t it feel right somehow? Doesn’t embracing an underdog feel like second nature at this point? Wouldn’t watching a team full of established stars dominate the competition feel strangely alien? Don’t you yearn more to see a gritty over-achiever overcome all odds?

This is your team.

Let’s go Mets.

READ MORE +
Baseball Instruction from OnBaseball
Mets Pitching Injuries NOT Due to 2015 Hangover

Mets Pitching Injuries NOT Due to 2015 Hangover

17

The latest in a series of arm injuries suffered by Mets starting pitchers has struck Jacob deGrom, who will miss his next start due to forearm tightness and elbow inflammation. ...

READ MORE +
Matz Shoulder and Elbow Issues Directly Related

Matz Shoulder and Elbow Issues Directly Related

10

Steven Matz has been pitching nearly the entire season with an elbow issue -- going back to the forearm tightness he experienced way back in early May. The forearm tightness ...

READ MORE +
What’s NOT Wrong with Matt Harvey and How To Fix What Is

What’s NOT Wrong with Matt Harvey and How To Fix What Is

10

Tonight Matt Harvey faces Stephen Strasburg. Normally that would be an exciting sentence for Mets fans, Nationals fans -- heck, baseball fans in general. Instead, it's a ...

READ MORE +
How Zack Wheeler Could Have Avoided Tommy John Surgery

How Zack Wheeler Could Have Avoided Tommy John Surgery

The good news: Zack Wheeler underwent "successful" Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL tendon and a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow. "He is expected to make a full ...

READ MORE +
Why There Are So Many Pitching Injuries This Time Of Year

Why There Are So Many Pitching Injuries This Time Of Year

1

More pitching injuries occur from spring training through the first month of the season -- do you know why? There is at least one reason, and despite what you may remember of Tim ...

READ MORE +
Mets Gifts

This Looks Like it Could Be a MetsToday Hat

51MCd0jwRFL._SS400_

This hat is called Nike New York Mets Royal Blue Heritage 86 Cooperstown Vintage Relaxed Mesh Back Adjustable Hat I kind of like the logo, don't you? Not sure I'm ready to go back to the mesh back and adjustable snap-back style that I wore exclusively from age 6 to 18. Retro is cool, I guess, but, isn't it lame ...

My Nephew Says This Mets Hat is the Bomb

8.5 mets-nike-hat

I need a new baseball cap; my old Mets hats were worn out and gross and have been donated to charity. So I'm in the market for one. My nephew says the above Mets cap is "the bomb." It's called the New York Mets Nike Royal L91 Alpha Swoosh Relaxed Flex Hat. If you like it, click on the hat and it will take you to ...