Browsing Archive June, 2016

Do the Mets need to try less situational hitting?

On Wednesday afternoon, Asdrubal Cabrera came to bat with Curtis Granderson on first. Batting second, with a dangerous power hitter behind him, Cabrera’s “job” could be interpreted as “try to work a walk or poke a single to bring Yoenis Cespedes up with two men on.” Some Baseball People would consider that the “professional” or “situational” approach. Fortunately for the Mets, Cabrera ignored that wisdom and took a big rip, hitting a two-run homer to turn a deficit into a lead.

Is that what the Mets need?

This team has been an utter abomination in clutch hitting situations. When the #2 homerun hitting team in the National League is also the #13 team in scoring (well behind #12), it’s obvious that something is wrong. A .207 team batting average with RISP (runners in scoring position) is pretty obvious too. What’s less obvious is how we got here. Are Mets hitters nervous? Playing tight? Lacking confidence? Pressing? Is it a spiral where a little bit of bad clutch hitting becomes contagious and spirals out of control?

I have a theory. When Gary, Keith and Ron talk about situational hitting, they talk about hitting to the opposite field, about putting the ball in play, about not swinging for the fences, about advancing runners, and on and on in that vein. Terry Collins and Kevin Long don’t have three hours of air time to fill every night, but they sometimes (occasionally to the media, who knows how often to the players) talk about situational hitting too, and I’m guessing they’re talking about the same things. In doing so, however, they might be getting in the way of what their roster does best. These are Alderson players. They draw a few walks and hit a bunch of homeruns. Attempting situational hitting, which they aren’t good at (see that .207 AVG), just interferes with their strengths.

Here are the Mets’ rates of hitting homeruns, drawing unintentional walks, and striking out, by situation:

SplitHR %UIBB %K %
No RISP4.4 %8.3 %26.0 %
0/1 Out RISP3.4 %5.6 %27.7 %
2 Outs, RISP1.8 %8.8 %32.1 %

So maybe the 2016 Mets would be better served following the model of other Alderson-style offenses: take your walks, swing for the fences, and don’t ever change that.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments!


Granderson for Beltran?

All of this Jose Reyes talk/speculation/click bait has gotten me to thinking: if the Mets are seriously considering bringing back stars from the Omar Minaya era, why don’t they inquire about Carlos Beltran?

If any player symbolized the failed Minaya era better than Beltran, it isn’t apparent to me. He slashed 280/369/500 in his seven years here–near elite numbers, even for that steriod-assisted era. He slugged 149 homers and stole 100 bases. He won three Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers and was a 5-time All Star. Despite this impressive resume, he never quite got the big prize and his Met career will always have an asterisk next to it because of The At Bat. However in typing those stats, I realized that he never really quite got the appreciation he probably deserved around here.

I get it that Met-Yankee trades are about as rare as late April snow in Pennsylvania, but I propose that the Mets trade Curtis Granderson to the Yanks for Beltran. Before you scoff and click somewhere else, bear this in mind: the Mets will not trade any of their young pitchers for a bat, unless said bat is a near lock to be an offensive mainstay for the next several seasons. Instead, they will look to rinse and repeat deals like this, rent-a-bats that they hope they could catch lightening in a bottle with the way they did last year with Yoenis Cespedes.

The Beltran and Granderson 2016 contracts are essentially a wash, but the Mets would have to come up with some creative way of assisting the Yanks with Curtis’ 2017 salary. Grandy returns to the stadium where he twice hit 40+ homers, while Beltran becomes the Mets 4th outfielder, a sort of roving left fielder/right fielder.

This move gets Juan Lagares back into center field and frees up right for Beltran, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo or any other hot bat, either here or in Vegas. Maybe the Mets also add Reyes as well, giving them a bench that on paper at least has speed and power, two commodities they will need if they plan to reel in the Nationals.

So what do you think? Bring back Jose? Get Beltran? Got another idea? Sound off below.


Mets Need More Than Kelly Johnson

News Flash: The New York Mets have traded relief pitcher Akeel Morris to the Atlanta Braves for IF-OF Kelly Johnson. This is KJ’s second go-round with the club and the second time he was traded from Atlanta to the Mets. The first time was last July 24, when he arrived in a deal along with Juan Uribe for a pair of minor league pitchers.

Has Mets GM Sandy Alderson opened a storefront in Panic City? The 34-year old Johnson is slashing a paltry 215/279/289 for the Braves. Better at least than the player (Eric Campbell) that he is replacing, but still a far cry from the proverbial shot in the arm the Mets putrid offense needs. For the record, Campbell is hitting 159/270/222 as a Met this year.

I think the plan coming into this year was to plug in the veterans for another year-plus until the next wave of bats arrived from the farm in the form of Dilson Herrera, Dominic Smith, Amed Rosario and Wuilmer Becerra; meanwhile relying on the Mets greatest strength, their starting pitching, to keep them atop the division. The quartet of youngsters has done their part: all of them are putting up some good offensive numbers in the minors and with the exception of Smith, look ready to move up a level. The Mets rotation, despite a hiccup here or there has proven to be one of the best and deepest in the National League. The bullpen, once feared as the team’s Achilles heel, has actually performed well, although a few cracks are showing.

It’s that bridge of veteran bats in the lineup that have almost totally collapsed, leaving the Mets a season-high 3.5 games behind the very formidable Washington Nationals. The Mets rank dead last in the NL in hits (432), 14 in team BA (.230) and 11th in OBP (.307). They hit homers (77, tying them for the league lead with Washington), but that’s about it. They have struck out 523 times and trail the rest of the NL with only 12 steals in 21 attempts. Essentially, if they don’t hit a solo homer, they don’t score.They don’t play small ball well either, not drawing many walks nor doing much in the way of sacrificing. Thanks in part to injuries, their bench is surprisingly weak, as Met pinch hitters have tallied on 13 pinch hits in 74 ABs, a .174 average. Travis d’Arnaud, David Wright and Lucas Duda have been sidelined for weeks with injuries. Wright and Duda could very well be lost of the season and Wright’s career may be ending. Their replacements have performed poorly offensively, although the jury may still be out on James Loney, who is Duda’s replacement. Curtis Granderson is absolutely killing the team right now. It’s a lot of bad news that portends to a long and disappointing summer if they don’t turn it around.

Based on the evidence, I don’t think KJ is even part of the answer and it could be argued that a red chip like Morris could have been better utilized. Ideally, the Mets need to add both a speedy outfielder and an infielder who can drive the ball (or vice versa). I am not exactly sure they could get although I did some speculation here. How they bring this talent over is the bigger question. Here are a few possible ways, listed in order of probability:

• They trade a few “red chips” for some offensive help. This is by far the most likely scenario, as they still have Rafael Montero, Brandon Nimmo, Gavin Cechinni, Josh Smoker and a few other interesting names left in their system. One or more could be packaged together to bring in veterans as they did last year in the deals for Johnson and Tyler Clippard. Their trade partners would probably come from the Minnesota/Oakland/Atlanta/Cincinnati/San Diego/Milwaukee pool of teams, clubs far away from contention that need to fill multiple holes. What any of those teams have to offer the Mets in return is open to debate.

• They trade a veteran. Here the probability meter starts to tilt towards improbable. A veteran for a veteran? Who does that? I doubt any NL contenders would want to help the Mets out, or vice versa. Perhaps an American League team is in need of an arm later this summer and bids for Bartolo Colon. As I mentioned here, I think the way to go is to trade Neil Walker and bring up Herrera, but that might be a roll of the dice no one in the Mets Front Office wants to take. Walker’s value is very high right now, however.

• They trade a “blue chip,” someone like Herrera or Rosario. I know Matthew mentioned moving Dilson, but as I stated earlier, I believe the plan is to plug those guys into the lineup, where they produce while making the big-league minimum, freeing money to extend the starting pitchers. I don’t know for sure who Sandy considers a red chip vs a blue chip, but he does have a plan and as we saw last year, he won’t back down from it.

• They trade one of the Fab Five. This just isn’t happening. There is a better chance of someone they draft today being in the majors by August than there is of them trading one of their golden arms.

So to answer my earlier question, I don’t think Alderson has moved into Panic City…yet. For his sake and ours however, here’s hoping he can scrape together enough loose change to buy something more useful than just Kelly Johnson.


Batting Order for the Post-Wright Era

So, I read this post in another blog and I thought “y’know, this is a really well-thought out piece, I wonder if anyone in the Mets organization might read it.” Then it hit me: they might not read his blog, but they do read this blog! We’ve called a few things right here. Both Wilpons took our advice to just shut up.

Like most of us, I am taking the news of David Wright‘s impending demise somewhat in stride. It is a real shame to watch his body betray him like this, but from a pure results on the field perspective, he hasn’t been “David Wright” for several years now. I’ll always root for David, but I find myself hoping that he packs it in after this latest news. It would be a shame to see him tarnish his legacy by trying to stretch out his career any further. Maybe his buddy Michael Cuddyer can counsel him on this.

Meanwhile back to the lead and to the task at hand for the Mets, which is the defense of their NL crown. Building on my fellow blogger’s ideas a bit, here is a batting order proposal for our heroes. Terry and Sandy, take note:

1. Asdrubal Cabrera and his .335 OBP get the nod here. A few years ago, the Mets made a play for then-Astro Jonathan Vilar, who is playing well right now for Milwaukee. Vilar is somewhat of a Jose Reyes-lite player, who if he is available at the deadline, the Mets should inquire about–providing he is still producing that is.
2. James Loney. Right now it’s a bit of a man crush due to his career 285/338/410 slash line. I do have a feeling however, that we will find out why two sub-500 teams dumped him.
3. Michael Conforto. Anybody else concerned about his “Scooter” nickname? Having lived through the Gregg Jefferies era, I am. It’s a cute name for a 3-year old but not for your #3 hitter. Maybe I am reading too much into this.
4. Yoenis Cespedes: Wright’s impending retirement means there will be money to sign him. We will see this offseason if he really loves New York more than a long-term deal elsewhere. I’m betting the latter, but I’ve been surprised before when it comes to this guy.
5. Neil Walker: Interesting scenario developing here. As expected, Walker is having a good season on his expiring contract. Meanwhile his heir apparent Dilson Herrera, who is probably the last major-league ready prospect coming for a while from the Mets system, is hitting 288/328/492 in AAA. He also has six steals, twice as many as any current Met. Would the Mets actually consider moving Walker while his value is so high (and whom they viewed as a stopgap anyway), for help elsewhere ? They could plug Herrera into his spot. It’s an unlikely scenario, but I wonder if GM Sandy Alderson doesn’t at least have a few feelers out on this one.
6. Curtis Granderson: He’s my wife’s favorite Met (and I know for sure that she reads this blog), but he is just killing the team right now. It’s very hard to know what Grandy will do next. He appeared to have re-invented himself last year, only to have reverted to his 2014 form this year. I’d rather have Juan Lagares in the lineup everyday instead of Granderson. It may be time to try to find a taker for this contract. Sorry love, we’ll always have 2015.
7. Wilmer Flores: Counting June 3, there are 52 games to play between now and the trade deadline. Wilmer should be in line to get 175-200 at-bats, sufficient time for a team in the Mets position to decide on whether or not he is a viable solution. No less than Gary Cohen speculated (on the air) that former Yankee, current Padre Yangervis Solarte would be a perfect fit here should they need to look. Small sample size, but Solarte is slashing 339/426/593 with the Friars right now. Like Vilar, the Mets may have missed the train on this one. The other and perhaps more likely option, should Flores fail, is to move either Cabrera or Walker over to third and find a replacement for them at their incumbent positions.
8. Catcher. This has suddenly become a gaping black hole. Hopefully the impending return of Travis d’Arnaud eases the situation somewhat. I really like Travis, but enough with the injuries already.

Not a murder’s row by any means and it will probably require some tinkering as the season progresses. The Mets are all about the starting pitching anyway. Plus Daniel Murphy can’t hit .400 the entire season, right?