Browsing Archive November, 2016

Braves preempt market on innings-eaters

Dickey and Colon

In case you missed the news, the Atlanta Braves just made two player acquisition moves. News broke on Thursday that they had signed R.A. Dickey and on Friday that they had signed Bartolo Colon.

I think it’s a huge whiff on the Mets’ part to not bring back Colon. Was the team unprepared to negotiate? Was the $12.5M price tag way too steep? Were the Mets somehow not interested in Bart’s services?

Dickey would have been a fine back-up plan, another low-ceiling, high-floor innings-eater. But the Braves gobbled him up first.

I don’t think I need to be particularly pessimistic about the Mets’ young starters’ health to predict that we’ll be seeing a lot of innings from pitchers worse than Colon in 2017.

Plus, as a fan, it’s going to be hard for me to root against Dickey and Colon the 5 or so times the Mets face them this year.

Oh, and also, a division rival just got better.

As a Mets fan, I’m not happy with these developments, not one bit. What’s your reaction?

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If Hillary Clinton Were A Baseball Team….

…she’d be the 2007 New York Mets!

Remember the 2007 Mets? They sure had a lot of assets. Five All-Stars on their roster, including at least one future Hall of Famer. Power galore up and down their batting order and plenty of money to spend, thanks to an ownership flush with cash from their pal Bernie Madoff. They were heavy favorites to win it all, having won 97 games the year before and coming within one strike of a World Series berth. Presumably hungry over this near miss, they roared out to an early lead in the National League East. Some serious handicaps were ignored as well as the gathering storm just down I-95 in Philadelphia. In the bright and breezy days of late spring and early summer they glided through the season, not taking their opponents lightly, but no doubt thinking in their heart of hearts that this upstart Phillies team would peter out and that they would be in the winner’s circle at the end. Signs of trouble abounded but were dismissed.

Instead, disaster struck, the engines misfired and the pressure mounted. Unaccustomed and perhaps somewhat unprepared to making rapid and effective responses, they made some poor decisions and watched in panic as their big lead shrunk to single digits. The desperately eyed the calendar, hoping that time would run out on their opponents before their lead was entirely eradicated. It wasn’t to be, the Phillies caught them on the last week of the season. Then to add insult to injury, the Milwaukee Brewers elbowed them out of the playoffs entirely the season’s last day. I lived through all of this (just barely).

Remember Hillary Clinton? She sure had a lot of assets. Lots of passionate, loyal supporters, an experienced and politically savvy staff, a cozy relationship with many opinion-makers and a flush treasury. She was a heavy favorite to win it all, having come somewhat close back in 2008. Staked to a big lead early on, Clinton’s campaign and her supporters hoped that her more serious handicaps could be overcome by her not inconsiderable political assets. In the bright and breezy days of late spring and early summer, she glided through the process, not taking her opponent lightly, but no doubt thinking in their heart of hearts that this upstart blowhard would play out and that she would be in the winner’s circle at the end. Signs of trouble abounded but where ignored.

Instead, disaster struck, the engines misfired and the pressure mounted. Unaccustomed and perhaps somewhat unprepared to making rapid and effective responses, she made some poor decisions and watched in panic as her big lead shrunk to single digits. She desperately eyed the calendar, hoping that time would run out on her opponent before her lead was entirely eradicated. It wasn’t to be, the Donald caught her in the polls on the last week of the season. Then came last night. I still can’t believe it.

Who says baseball doesn’t imitate life? Or maybe its the other way around.

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Constructing the 2017 Mets

Wilson Ramos, Paul Goldschmidt

2017 finds the Mets roster in an awkward place, with enough strengths that contention is within reach but enough weaknesses that standing pat could prove fatal to the team’s chances. Alderson and co. have their work cut out for them.

Where to start?

Trades

The White Sox are finally rebuilding, and might move Chris Sale for the right package. I can’t think of any Mets options for Sale that don’t start with Amed Rosario, but how about aiming a little lower and going after Jose Quintana? Sell high on Seth Lugo as a potential replacement, and move Travis d’Arnaud while his slugging pedigree is still relatively recent. These two are supplemental pieces; the cornerstone of the trade would be Jay Bruce, giving the White Sox a much-needed OF/DH with power. The Mets could also offer the Sox some financial flexibility by taking James Shields and part of his salary. Shields may be done as a good starter, but with a move to the ‘pen and a little acclimation time in AAA, I’m sure he could become a lights-out reliever if he could regain the control he had for the first 9 years of his career.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, the Diamondbacks have crashed and changed management, leading me to wonder – is the time finally right to attempt a Paul Goldschmidt deal? The Mets can offer Lucas Duda to replace him, a fly ball hitter who should thrive in Arizona. The Mets can offer a high-ceiling pitcher or three. The Mets can offer a controllable young player who’s unlikely to become a huge asset, but would be a steal if he does. How about Steven Matz – Duda – Brandon NimmoZack Wheeler? This really depends on how much the D’backs like Matz. If they don’t, subbing in Quintana would be an option.

I’d also ask the D’backs to throw in Andrew Chafin, a groundball guy who developed strikeout ability last year but posted a 6.75 ERA due to what the advanced metrics see as awful luck.

These would be my key winter moves.

Then, in the spring, I’d make one more. With the games not mattering yet, and with a ton to prove, Matt Harvey will surely show up in the best shape of his life and be throwing 99 past hitters in spring training. That’s the time to trade him to an all-in contender like Boston for a young stud prospect like Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers. I don’t expect Harvey to thrive in New York going forward, whether for physical reasons or mental ones, and the Mets desperately need to deepen their ranks of potential impact players for the future.

Signings

The Mets need Yoenis Cespedes, and Cespedes seems to like the Mets, so I’d hope a deal could get done without any ridiculous behavior on either side, such as lowball offers from the Mets or 7-year demands from Team Yo.

That will leave the team with limited financial flexibility, and probably preclude major upgrades over the current roster at both primary positions of need, catcher and second base. My take is this: I liked having Neil Walker on the team, but his range was subpar and I doubt back problems bode well for a middle infielder’s future. At second base, the drop-off from Walker (the best-fitting free agent, as far as I’m aware) to what the Mets have now might not be that bad. The same is not true at catcher. I’d earmark the FA budget for Wilson Ramos and hope that no one gives him a crazy contract based just on 2016.

My 2017 Mets:

Lineup and Bench

1. 3B Jose Reyes
2. RF Curtis Granderson
3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
4. LF Yoenis Cespedes
5. C Wilson Ramos
6. SS Asdrubal Cabrera
7. 2B T.J. Rivera / Wilmer Flores / Ty Kelly / Matt Reynolds
8. CF Juan Lagares

• Sign Rajai Davis to sub for Grandy against lefties and pinch-run.
• If Michael Conforto earns playing time, give him time in RF with Grandy moving to CF and Lagares sitting.
• If David Wright refuses to retire, then whenever Reyes, Cabrera, or the 2B needs a day off, plug Wright in at 3B and move Reyes around as needed. David can also pinch-hit against lefties.

Starting Pitching

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Jacob deGrom
3. Jose Quintana
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Robert Gsellman

• Bring back R.A. Dickey to serve as swingman, long relief, and injury sub. The knuckleballer suffered from Rogers Centre for four years, and from having another knuckleballer in his division in 2016. If he can throw as many strikes as he did during his Mets time, he’ll thrive again in the N.L.

Bullpen

9. Jeurys Familia
8. Addison Reed
7. James Shields / Andrew Chafin / Rafael Montero

If Montero ever musters the courage to throw strikes, his fastball is sneaky and gets a lot of pop-ups. His change-up is deceptive, so when it’s moving, it’s a good second pitch. The slider is just enough to keep righties off the fastball.

Summing it Up

With Ramos providing improved offense and defense behind the plate (and not killing the Mets as an opponent), Goldschmidt anchoring the lineup and the infield, Quintana bringing an impeccable record of health and success, a few bullpen additions offering some 7th inning upside, and a new stud prospect or two bolstering the farm, I think the Mets would be in a great position for 2017 and beyond.

What do you think of these moves? Do you have some ideas of your own? Please let us know in the comments!

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