Livan Good, Freddy Not So Good
After their most recent performances, it’s nearly a given that Livan Hernandez will go north as the Mets #5 starter, while Freddy Garcia’s future will depend on whether he’s willing to begin the season in AAA.
Hernandez was sharp in his Wednesday start, and looks to be in mid-season form. His fastball is underwhelming (low 80s), but he throws strikes, gets outs, and does everything else a pitcher needs to do to win (hit, bunt, field). The Mets don’t need Livan to be an ace, they need him to take the ball every fifth day and keep the team in the game through 6-7 innings.
You have to love Livan’s attitude, as demonstrated in an SNY interview during the sixth inning of that game. He was cool as a cucumber, completely relaxed, sounding like he just came in from a day of rum drinks on the beach rather than a five-inning stint on the mound. Of course, that same personality will drive people mad if his ERA is over 7.00 and his record is 0-6 by mid-May. But I don’t think that’s going to happen.
In contrast, Freddy Garcia is not progressing quickly enough — though there were a few positive signs in his outing against the Braves. Though Garcia was again battered — 7 hits and 5 runs in two innings — his velocity was improved and his curveball continues to have good bite. The fastball was riding around 85-86, and he touched 88 several times — a significant increase from the 83-84 range of a week ago. But it remains clear that he’s going to need more time to get ready for prime time. If the Mets don’t release him, and if he accepts a minor league assignment, I believe he can work his way back to the bigs after another month to six weeks in the minors. The guy is a battler, and it appears he’ll be able to get the velocity back around the 89-90 range. If he can get it there, he can win a few games in MLB, because his curveball is already a plus pitch, his changeup is solid, and his slider can be devastating. His problem now is that all of those pitches are around the same speed, and his fastball location is too high. Another few MPH difference between the fastball and his other pitches are key to his future success.
After his dismal performances this spring, Garcia may not have a choice — it’s not like other teams will be banging down his door.
In other news, Jonathan Niese has been sent to minor-league camp. That move plus Tim Redding’s shoulder injury and Tony Armas, Jr.’s demotion would suggest that the fifth starter competition has become a two-man race — with Livan Hernandez several strides ahead.
I’m not confident if Freddy starts in the majors but would welcome him to triple A. Hopefully he excepts a minor league contract and the Mets triple A pitching coach tells him to use his legs and his head when he throws. He would be a much better pitcher.
Of course, once the season gets into late April / early May, Garcia would likely be sent to AAA to get a better gauge on his abilities.
Last year John Maine had his bone spur and we can clearly see that the problem is deeper than that. Is there other elbow, shoulder or tenderness issues? Either way he looks like DL stuff to me. Is that we here an offer was tendered to Pedro.
That aside Johan…we trust, Pel is looking fine, Livian looks reborn and Ollie is done throwing BP for Mexico. I still think we could see a trade for a starter. If not now by June 1st.
And two, I don’t see a trade for a starter happening. I wonder how much you had to restrain yourself from mentioning a Putz-to-Detroit deal. Redding will be back eventually, and Omar gave him his $2.25 million contract to be a starter, not a long reliever. Additionally, as you mention, Livan has looked very solid and there’s nothing right now that suggests he can’t handle being this team’s #5. Also, don’t forget about Jon Niese, who many say (despite his rough ST) is pretty close to ML ready. There’s 3 in-house options right there to fill out the rotation, so I just don’t see a trade for a #5 being all that necessary. Obviously, Pedro would be an ideal choice, but the Mets have made it clear that they are letting that ship sail, so it’s time to live with what we have.
God forbid anything happens to Johan …
2. Mets have apparently offered Pedro a contract in the 1-2M range. Considering he pitched 1 good yr of his 4 yr contract , i’d consider that a cash back award.
2b. -Redding: At the time Redding was signed he was (to me insurance). Ollie was a FA, there was lust after Lowe, there were (and are) issues about Maine no Freddy and No Livian. Pel and Santana were the only two healthy starters. Redding right now is akin to a mid season pick up.
3. Livian. I did not see this but Livian could well be a “Tatis-type’ pick up, benefitting from the NL and good infield defense. I’ll even stretch it and annoint him a poor man’s Vazquez.
4. PS. Metsblog has Omar considering Shawn Hill.
5. In the BP. Fernando Nieve is not looking too shabby.
2. The Mets might just DL Maine for extended spring training and sign Pedro to a one-year deal.
3. Redding stinks, healthy or not.
4. Livan may emerge as this team’s #3 starter before all is said and done.
5. MetsToday was considering Shawn Hill last week
6. I’d like to see more of Nieve before making a judgment. I wish they’d show more games on SNY