Centerfield Options
As we all know, Carlos Beltran has underwent knee surgery and is expected to be out for 12 weeks. No one is sure if “12 weeks” refers to the time before he can walk, run, or play ball. No one has made clear that it is “at least 12 weeks” or “a minimum of 12 weeks”. The recent history of communications from the Mets in regard to player injuries, though, tells us that the “12 weeks” means little or nothing.
That said, we’ll pretend that Carlos Beltran will NOT be in uniform, in centerfield, in April, and possibly not until May (which, in Metspeak, means, he most likely will be back in the lineup sometime in August).
Who will play centerfield for the Mets while we wait for Beltran’s return? Here are some of the possibilities.
Free Agents
Rick Ankiel
The best free-agent centerfielder still available on the open market. He has no desire to play in NYC, and is coming off an injury-riddled season in which he hit .231.
Alfredo Amezaga
The second-best free-agent centerfielder still available. Hits from both sides of the plate, has good speed, and can play every position on the diamond except catcher. He hit .217 last year and turned 32 a few days ago. In his prime years (27-29) he was a semi-regular super utlityman who hit in the .260s with no power.
Endy Chavez
Endy is coming off major knee surgery that ended his 2009 season. He turns 32 in a few weeks. His age and his surgery likely will affect his once excellent range. Neither issue should affect the fact he has no power, no plate discipline, and is a streak hitter.
Johnny Damon
There was a time that Damon was adequate in centerfield. That time has long past. Comically enough, there have been some pundits who suggest signing Damon for left field and shifting Jason Bay to center — many of the same pundits who previously insisted that Jason Bay’s defensive skills in left field would nullify his offensive production and ultimately doom the Mets.
Cory Sullivan / Jeremy Reed
Either of these choices would provide stellar defense, solid fundamentals, hustle, and good baserunning but only limited offensive production. The cost would be very affordable — likely under $1M.
Reed Johnson
This name is being bandied about more than Sullivan/Reed and I don’t understand why — Reed Johnson is essentially the righthanded, more expensive version of those two. I guess it’s a matter of people preferring change for the sake of change.
Rocco Baldelli
Is he healthy? Can he play every day? Does he want to play in NYC? If the answer is “yes” to all three it’s a no-brainer. But we don’t know the answers.
Randy Winn
Winn has been coveted by the Mets for several years, as his name comes up in rumors every July. He hasn’t been an everyday centerfielder since 2004 because his range is limited. He might be an OK stopgap, providing solid if unspectacular all-around performance. Certainly he is a well-rounded, fundamentally sound ballplayer with extensive experience and has a good rep off the field / in the clubhouse.
Jerry Hairston, Jr.
This name has been suggested by various sources recently. Why, I have no idea. Hairston is essentially an older, more versatile, but otherwise less-talented version of Reed Johnson. His main value is the ability to stand in several different positions on the diamond, but, at none is he particularly stellar — centerfield included. In any case, it appears he’s about to sign with the Padres.
Eric Byrnes
The price tag should be cheap, and if he’s healthy, he might be an OK option — if he’ll sign an MLB-minimum contract. The Crashtest Dummy last played CF regularly in 2006, and no one knows for sure if he’s healthy enough to walk out to center, much less play it.
Gerald “Ice” Williams
I’m kidding.
Trade Candidates
Gary Matthews, Jr.
The Angels are dying to rid themselves of Matthews and his contract — and will probably pay some or all of his salary to make him go away. He hasn’t performed anywhere close to his “enhanced” career year with the Rangers in 2006, and is now 35 years old.
Ryan Spilborghs
The rumor mill was rife with Spilborghs’ name earlier in the winter, and he remains an extra outfielder on the Rockies’ depth chart. The Beaneheads love him for his OBP, and he can cover centerfield adequately enough to be a worthwhile stopgap. But at what cost, and is he any better than Angel Pagan?
In-house Possibilities
Angel Pagan
The most likely and most sensible solution is Angel Pagan. He has the physical (if not mental) skills to handle center field more than adequately, and showed in 2009 that he can be an offensive force in spurts.
Fernando Martinez
Do we really want to watch him be overmatched in MLB when he should be further developing his skills, confidence, and ability to stay on the field in the minors?
Jason Bay / Jeff Francoeur
Even if either of these players was capable of handling centerfield for more than a week, it would still create a hole in one of the corners. Not plausible.
Conclusion
I think we know the way the Mets will go — they’ll plug in Angel Pagan and hope for the best. And looking at the alternatives, it’s not a bad plan. Though, I’d prefer they also back him up with a solid, cheap defender such as Jeremy Reed or Cory Sullivan, AND have a “Plan B” in place — Randy Winn would appear to be the most logical choice in terms of availability and cost. Winn can fill in as a late-inning defender in center and left, and be a veteran bat off the bench — he can just as easily play every day, and/or split time in a platoon situation. Maybe if Ankiel were more interested in playing in New York I’d think differently, but that plus his history suggests he isn’t “built” to play in a big market.
What do you think?
Carlos Beltran’s Mysterious Knee Surgery
In case you missed it, Carlos Beltran had knee surgery in Colorado on Wednesday. That’s about all we know for sure. He might have had “microfracture surgery”, which is pretty darn serious, or he may have had “arthroscopic surgery”, which is relatively routine. We’ve also been told by the Mets that he will be out for “12 weeks”, which makes sense for neither possibility.
Here is the exact quote from the official Mets press release:
He elected to undergo arthroscopic clean out of the arthritic area of his knee by Beltran’s personal physician Dr. Richard Steadman today in Colorado. He is anticipated to return to baseball activities in 12 weeks.
Considering the recent history of medical reports from Mets officials, it is hard to know what to believe.
If indeed it was microfracture surgery, the recovery time is at least 4 months, but could be as long as 8 — or a year, or a year and a half. There’s really no way to know for sure, as everyone is different.
On the other hand, athletes usually resume activities from a simple ’scope of the knee in 6-8 weeks — sometimes sooner.
So now you can understand why the 12-week number stated by the Mets’ press release is mysterious.
As if that weren’t enough to confuse things, microfracture surgery is something that is performed via arthroscopy. Get it? So in other words, you can have arthroscopic surgery without having microfracture surgery, but you can’t have microfracture surgery without having a ’scope. Clear as mud?
That said, if it is reported that Beltran had a ’scope, it would be correct regardless of whether the surgery was a simple cleaning or if it included the microfracture procedure. And therein lies the mystery.
Oh, and if you re-read the above quote from the Mets’ press release, you’ll see it was Dr. Richard Steadman who performed the surgery. Steadman is the man who pioneered microfracture surgery.
The 12 weeks spit out by the Mets’ crack PR team is what makes things suspicious, because it takes the blood clot formed by microfracture surgery at least 8-15 weeks to heal — and the number 12 is right in the middle of that range. Mind you, the healing of the clot is only step one of the recovery process. From the research available on the information superhighway, if indeed he had microfracture surgery, Beltran would GET OFF CRUTCHES after 8-15 weeks — I’m not sure what kind of “baseball activities” are possible immediately thereafter. Maybe it means he can start autographing baseballs or break in a new glove.
Here is a quote from Wikipedia in regard to the sensitive nature of the recovery period:
Microfracture surgery itself is relatively minor. It is an outpatient procedure and causes only small discomfort. The harder part is the restrictions that are placed on the patient during the post-operative recovery period. This can be a major challenge for many patients. For optimal re-growth of joint surface, the patients need to be very patient and also extremely cooperative. They usually need to be on crutches for four to six weeks (sometimes longer). Sometimes a brace is needed. This all depends on the size and/or location of the joint surface defect that is being repaired or regenerated. The patients are encouraged to spend approximately 6-8 hours a day on a CPM (Continuous Passive Motion) machine that helps with optimal re-growth of joint surface. Patients usually feel pretty good and think they can avoid these critically important steps, and even start running and jumping (or playing sports) before the internal aspects of the knee, and the joint surface, are ready.
Sounds pretty dangerous, no? If a determined athlete — such as Beltran — decides to push himself to recover quickly, it could have devastating consequences. Considering that Beltran is going to make $37M over the next two years regardless of whether he sets foot on the field, and that he probably has a shot at one more big payday before he retires, you’d think that agent Scott Boras will recommend insist that Beltran go the cautious route, taking all the time he needs.
Quite a conundrum.
There are already rumors flying that the Mets were not on board with Beltran’s decision to have the surgery, and that they may sue Beltran for his salary. Per Joel Sherman:
A person familiar with the situation told the Post that the Commissioners Office and the Players Association have been alerted that “the Mets are claiming this was done without clearance and that the Mets are threatening to take some form of action. There is a potential issue out there.”
That’s a whole ‘nuther can of worms.
Here’s the bottom line: if indeed Beltran had microfracture surgery — and all signs seem to be pointing that way — there’s no way he’ll be playing before June. In fact there is a very real possibility he misses the entire 2010 campaign. This isn’t panic, it’s a statement of reality — not unlike the statement I posted here last May in regard to Jose Reyes.
Mind you, I don’t point out these possibilities because I want to be right, or so I can say “I told you so” later on. Rather, I’m evaluating the situation realistically, and understanding that the Mets will need to have a solid plan in place in preparation for the worst scenario NOW, rather than scrambling later (see: Angel Berroa, Wilson Valdez, Anderson Hernandez, et al). Maybe the Mets can survive the year and compete for a postseason spot with Angel Pagan in centerfield all year. Or, maybe they need to look for an alternative, in case Pagan doesn’t work out (Rick Ankiel? Jeremy Reed? would they be crazy enough to trade for Gary Matthews, Jr. ?).
No matter which way you scope out this situation, it is not good news for the Mets.
2009 Analysis: Angel Pagan
Flashy leadoff man or flash in the pan?
That is the $64,000 question when it comes to Angel Pagan.
At times, Angel Pagan displayed a marvelous skill set, lashing line drives to all fields, running the bases like a madman, and covering outfield ground with the ease and finesse of a veteran Gold Glover. At other times, he looked overmatched at the plate, confused in the field, and a bonehead on the bases.
No one questions Pagan’s raw talent — he has good speed, a strong arm, and a fast bat. What comes into question is everything above Angel’s neck. At age 28, and after 10 years and 900 games as a pro, one has to wonder if he’ll ever “figure it out”. Read more
2009 Analysis: Carlos Beltran
How do you evaluate a half-season of performance that was riddled with nagging injuries?
Carlos Beltran played in 81 ballgames — exactly one-half of a 162-game season. A good number of those games where played on an injured knee, so there’s some reason to believe that his numbers could have been even better.
Those numbers were pretty impressive by the way. He posted a .325 AVG, 22 doubles, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, 47 BB, and 43 K, with a .415 OBP and .915 OPS. Had he been healthy, Beltran likely would have been among the top 10 NL hitters in most offensive categories and won another Gold Glove. But it was not to be.
Instead, the day Beltran was placed on the disabled list Read more
One Carlos or Two in 2010?
Carlos Beltran recently told reporters that he’d like to see Carlos Delgado return to the Mets in 2010.
At a Harlem RBI event, Beltran said: Read more
Beltran to Boston?
The buzz from the Boston Herald is that the Red Sox might consider calling the Mets about Carlos Beltran this winter, in the event that Jason Bay is not re-signed.
(Hat tip to Ed at MetsFever)
Note I stated “buzz” — not “rumor”, nor “report”. It’s pure speculation by the Herald’s columnist Michael Silverman. Still, I am curious as to what you the Mets fan thinks of such an idea.
Would you consider trading Carlos Beltran to the Red Sox? If so, what would you need to get in return? If not, why not?
Manuel Perpetuates Blame Game
Ah, now it’s all clear. Perhaps I was too harsh on Frankie Rodriguez, Johan Santana, and Carlos Beltran. By blaming others, finger-pointing, and driving the bus over their teammates, they were merely carrying out the ethos set in place by their field general.
Because yet again, Jerry Manuel does his own finger-pointing to explain the Mets’ miserable season. When asked about the possibility of losing 90+ games this season, Manuel was quoted last night during the SNY postgame (and recorded on MLB.com):
“You have to go back to the health issue,” manager Jerry Manuel said. “If you don’t have those pieces in place, it’s difficult to do anything, and do anything well and do it consistently.”
(hat tip to TheRopolitans)
See? Blame game. It fits nicely. I absolves Teflon Jerry from responsibility. He can blame the circumstances around him for the Mets’ dismal record, as if he is somehow separate from it. How can he possibly win baseball games when he doesn’t have the “pieces” ?
Funny, though, that this time last year the media and much of the fanbase couldn’t congratulate Manuel enough for leading the Mets into the Promised Land (well, they never guessed ANOTHER collapse would occur in the final days). He was some kind of Zen wizard, regaling journalists with his koan-like bits of wisdom, and managing the Mets with a measured balance of father-like encouragement and stern discipline.
Heck, one journalist referred to Manuel as a magician, and suggested he could win “Manager of the Year”.
Carlos Delgado was a one-man wrecking crew because Jerry motivated him to do so. Fernando Tatis hit like Ted Williams for a month because Jerry gave him the chance. Daniel Murphy looked like the next Wade Boggs because Jerry “worked so well with youngsters”. Jose Reyes was fulfilling his superstar promise because Jerry knew how to keep him focused. Carlos Beltran and David Wright were MVP candidates because Jerry was giving them just the right amount of rest. Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez turned their seasons around because Jerry had them working with Dan Warthen.
And if by some miracle the Mets did NOT make it to the postseason, everyone knew exactly why — because the bullpen would fail.
Huh … sound familiar?
Even amidst all the miracles Manuel was spinning on his way to sainthood, there was a built-in excuse. It would be the fault of the men in the bullpen — not the man managing it — if things turned sour. Jerry’s irresponsible abuse of arms from June through August would be forgotten when the relief crew collectively and colossally collapsed. It would be the fault of Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, or the injury to Billy Wagner, if the Mets blew it again. Anyone but Jerry.
This is the culture that Jerry Manuel created — one where the team learns to find reasons why they lose, rather than creating solutions to win.
Winners Take the Blame, Losers Point Fingers
Daniel Murphy is far from an excellent defender at first base, and he may never hit enough to make up for that deficiency as a full-time cornerman.
But he does have at least one trait that is commonly seen in players on winning teams: Read more
How Bad is Mets Power Outage?
Quick, what do Miguel Olivo, Garret Jones, David Wright, Gary Sheffield, and Grady Sizemore all have in common?
All four players lead their respective teams in homeruns, but have hit less than 20.
Here’s where it gets scary — the season totals for these four:
Olivo (Royals), 19
Jones (Pirates), 19
Sizemore (Indian), 18
Wright and Sheffield (Mets), 10
Now, homeruns aren’t everything, but they do have a significant place in today’s game of watered-down pitching and emphasis on offense. And 20 is just a number — though most would agree it is something of a benchmark. A player who knocks at least 20 balls over the fence is generally considered to be a “power threat” — the type of hitter one needs to pitch carefully to in tight situations.
Yes, the injuries to Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran had something to do with the Mets not having a 20-HR hitter this year (though the pace of each suggested barely hitting 20 through 600 ABs). But Wright’s 15-day stint on the DL wasn’t the reason he is unlikely to reach that milestone. Further, the only other players on the Opening Day roster who had hit as many as 20 in a season were the 40-year-old Sheffield and Fernando Tatis (whose 34 in 1999 smell mysterious).
And before you point to vast expanse of Citi Field, consider that opponents have hit 75 homeruns in Flushing — or, a dozen more than visiting teams have hit in Coors Field. Chew on that one for a moment.
In fact, the Mets have hit 46 of their dingers in their home stadium, compared to 39 on the road. So Citi Field may have stolen a few fly balls, but that doesn’t explain the lack of power when visiting other parks.
Now consider this: there are currently 71 in MLB right now with at least 20 homeruns. In fact, 19 of them have 30 or more. Not one is a New York Met.
With a shade less than 20 games left in the season, there’s a very real possibility that the Mets finish the year as the only team in MLB without a 20-HR hitter. I’m not sure of the last time that has happened to an MLB team, but I know it hasn’t happened to the Mets since 2003, when Cliff Floyd and Jeromy Burnitz hit 18 apiece. You have to back another ten years, to 1993, to find a sub-20-HR guy lead the team (Bobby Bonilla, with 19, if you care).
Can a Major League team make it to the postseason in this day and age without at least one power threat? Some may argue a playoff-bound team requires at least three. Going into this offseason, the Mets are likely to let Delgado go, leaving Wright and Beltran as the only players under contract with the potential to hit 20 homers in a season — though they have an arbitration / non-tender decision to make with Jeff Francoeur, who has hit as many as 20 HR once in his five-year career. Assuming Francoeur returns, will those three “sluggers” be enough power to contend in 2010?
Mets Game 132: Loss to Rockies
Rockies 8 Mets 3
We’ll blame it on the thin air.
Three days after watching Bobby Parnell take a step backward, Mike “Mr. Yips” Pelfrey followed suit with a four-inning stint. In those four frames, Pelfrey allowed 7 runs on 6 hits and 5 walks. One of the runs was unearned, but the reason that unearned run scored was because Pelfrey was slow to back up third base on a Todd Helton single. Shame on you, Pelf.
The offense was equally inadequate, managing only one earned run on four hits in six innings against starter Jorge De La Rosa. They had no safeties at all from innings two through five. The most exciting part of the game after the first inning was the seventh, when Cory Sullivan and Angel Pagan hit back to back triples.
Notes
For the umpteenth time this season, Angel Pagan showed why extreme athleticism and raw talent aren’t nearly enough to succeed at the MLB level. During the Mets’ first inning “rally”, Pagan was deked into believing that Luis Castillo’s clean single to center was … something else? Instead of standing safely on second base, Troy Tulowitzki convinced Pagan to inexplicably backtrack toward first, and was easily tagged out. It was a head-scratching, head-shakng, mouth-gaping, and eye-rolling incident.
In the bottom of the fourth inning, after Seth Smith walked, the SNY camera showed Dan Warthen about to leave the dugout to speak with Pelfrey — but Jerry Manuel stopped him from walking out to the mound. On the very next pitch, Todd Helton stroked a prodigious three-run homer into the right field seats to make the score 7-2 and put the game away for the Rox. Not sure Warthen would’ve said anything to prevent the dinger, but it must’ve driven him nuts.
Smith had three hits and scored three runs; Helton had two hits and three RBI.
Is it me, or was there something wrong with this being the game — and the trip — upon which David Wright made his return? Ryan Church, thin air, anyone? While it likely made no difference to David, as long as the season is trashed, why not wait an extra three days, leave D-Wright behind, and have him make his return in Flushing? Just sayin’.
Speaking of strange moves, Carlos Beltran will be playing in Brooklyn later this week. Why? Why not just take it easy the rest of the season, and/or get that micro-fracture surgery? What happens if the bone bruise is aggravated again from being on the field, and surgery is required in, say, March 2010?
I concur with Gary Cohen — the new helmet worn by David Wright reminds me of Gazoo.
My wife has a new name for the Mets: “And … Just Like That”. It refers to the Mets’ habit of losing leads “just like that” — for example, the 2-0 advantage they took in the top half of the initial inning of this game.
She also lamented that, “the only name on the team I recognize is Sean Green — and it’s not even the Shawn Green that I know!”. Sorry, honey.
Gary Cohen sort of suggested the nickname “Broadway Lance” for Lance Broadway. I’m thinking more like, “Off Off”.
The most interesting aspect of this broadcast: finding out that Keith Hernandez knows about Snopes, and Gary Cohen doesn’t. Second place: seeing Keith’s daughter drown a beer while wearing a red “Hernandez is My Homey” T-shirt.
Why does it bother me that I played against Eric Young, Sr. in college and I’m now watching Eric Young, Jr. on my TV? Junior was three years old when I faced his father. How depressing …
Notes
The Mets and Rockies do it again at 8:40 PM EST on Wednesday evening. Tim Redding faces Ubaldo Jimenez. Josh Thole will NOT get the start behind the plate — he needs more bullpen duty to get a feel for the Mets hurlers and the movement of their pitches. The unofficial word is he’ll start on Thursday.
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