Quick Preview: Mets vs. Braves
The Mets are in Atlanta for the next few days to play the Atlanta Braves.
Unfortunately for us, these games mean little, since the Mets have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason and the Braves are 6 games back in the Wild Card standings with 19 to play. Yes, the Braves still have a shot, but the margin isn’t slim enough at this juncture for me to think “ooh, the Mets can play the spoiler!”.
That said, I’m not sure how to look at this series against one of our “arch rivals”. Funny, isn’t it, that the Mets and Braves are playing against each other in a meaningless series in September? Who woulda thunk it back in March?
Game One: Pat Misch (1-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Tommy Hanson (9-3, 2.83 ERA)
Misch will make another attempt at becoming the next Jamie Moyer, pitching against a lineup that enjoys seeing him on the mound — the Braves have 7 hits in 3 innings against him as a reliever, batting .583. He needs pinpoint control of his fastball and at least one of his offspeed pitches to succeed. Meanwhile, we get another look at the Tommy Gun, who has so far fulfilled the expectations preceding him as Atlanta’s top pitching prospect.
Game Two: Bobby Parnell (3-8, 5.49 ERA) vs. Derek Lowe (14-9, 4.47 ERA)
The experiment continues, but how can it help Parnell? I don’t see him making progress unless he makes a conscious effort to throw more change-ups and finds a spot in the strike zone he can hit consistently. His previous strategy of picking at the corners, then laying one over the middle, and mixing in an occasional hanging slider, is not one for success. If he’s going to get hit, I’d prefer to see him get hit experimenting with the change-up and spotting his best fastball consistently in a particular zone. He’s getting nowhere fast trying to hit spots all over the strike zone — choose one, hammer it until you can do it with your eyes closed, then try another.
While Derek Lowe is not having an outstanding year, he does have 14 wins and is 23 frames short of a 200-inning season. Parnell and Mike Pelfrey would do well to watch him work — they might learn something.
Game Three: Nelson Figueroa (2-5, 4.57 ERA) vs. Jair Jurrjens (11-10, 2.81 ERA)
Is it depressing to anyone else that the Braves will be sending two excellent young pitchers to the mound in three days — both with ERAs under three? The Braves have a pair of 23-year-olds already pitching at the level we’d hoped to see Mike Pelfrey (25 years old) and/or John Maine (28) — and add 24-year-old Bobby Parnell to that list as well. Jurrjens, by the way, has 186 IP, and looking at Lowe’s 177 and Javier Vazquez’s 197, the Braves may have THREE 200-inning starters when it’s all said and done. The Mets will have none. That’s part of the reason the Braves are still hanging on to postseason hopes in mid-September while the Mets are looking forward to golfing in the early fall.
Oh, back to the matchup. Nelson Figueroa needs to continue his workmanlike effort and mysterious voodoo to keep the Braves batters at bay and put another notch in his belt. At this point we know he will compete and usually won’t embarrass himself — but he needs a few more strong outings to earn a shot at a long relief / spot starter role in 2010. Keep plugging, Figgy!
Series Notes
So, the Braves weren’t so stupid when they said Adam LaRoche was a second-half hitter. He’s mashed 10 homers in 144 at-bats since returning to Atlanta, with a .333 AVG, .404 OBP, .590 SLG and 27 RBI in 39 games. Not too shabby for a late-season rental.
There’s an outside shot that the Braves join the Mets as the only teams in MLB to finish the season without a 20-HR hitter. Brian McCann leads the team with 18, followed by Chipper Jones’ 16 and Yunel Escobar’s 14. Did you know there are 41 NL hitters with 18+ homeruns?
Chipper Jones has a strained groin, and is questionable for all three games. Stay on the bench and rest, Larry.
Quick Preview: Mets vs. Rockies
The Rockies head into Flushing for a four-game series beginning today at 7:10 PM.
After a rough start, the Rockies rebounded with a rollicking 21-7 run in June, and is 13-8 so far in July, though heating up again — they’ve won 8 of their last 11 ballgames.
Though they’re unlikely to catch up to the Dodgers in the NL West, they are ten games over .500 and two games ahead of the Giants at the top of the Wild Card standings. Their biggest bugaboo has been Read more
Quick Preview: Mets vs. Reds
The last time the Mets and Reds faced each other was the first three games of the year. The Mets came out of it 2-1, brimming with confidence, and seemingly on their way to making a serious run at the NL East crown.
How times have changed.
Since then, the Mets have suffered injuries, curled into the fetal position, and are waiting to be put out of their misery. Meanwhile, the Reds have played a fairly even season, and if it weren’t for a bizarre string of four straight losses to the Royals and Nationals in June, they’d be right in the thick of things at the top of the NL Central. Though they’re sitting in fifth place, they’re far from out of it, only 4.5 games out of first and maybe one player or hot streak away from making a serious run.
Interestingly, the Mets are in a similar position in the NL East — fourth place and 5.5 games out — but they’ve all but thrown in the towel. It’s all about perspective, I guess.
With both teams in similar places, this last series before the break holds significant importance. One of the teams will head in with at least two losses, and, depending on what happens with their division leaders, those two losses could be the first nails in the coffin.
Game 1: Fernando Nieve (3-2,2.73 ERA) vs. Bronson Arroyo (8-8, 5.85 ERA)
Fernando fell back to earth in his last two starts, but I have to say I still like what he brings to the table — when he can bring it, that is. If Nieve can throw that hard sinker for strikes, and complement it by getting one of his other off-speed pitches over the plate the majority of the time, he can win. Unfortunately, his lack of command has been his undoing. Arroyo is having a tough year, but is the righthanded Randy Wolf when it comes to the Mets — and seems to turn it up a notch when pitching in the New York spotlight.
Game 2: Johan Santana (9-7, 3.29 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (8-5, 3.45 ERA)
After a Bob Gibson circa 1968 start, Santana has been rather pedestrian over the last month and a half, to the point where one must wonder what the heck is going on. Cueto has the stuff to match Santana pitch for pitch on a good day, and it would be just Johan’s luck for that to occur — though, there’ll surely be someone else to blame in the event of another loss.
Game 3: Mike Pelfrey (6-4, 4.52 ERA) vs. Aaron Harang (5-8, 3.89 ERA)
Funny how Big Pelf often draws a similarly tall opponent. The 6′7″ Harang is having an off year, but he’s always a threat to dominate. Yet, for whatever reason, he’s always had trouble against the Mets (8.56 ERA over the last three years against them). As mentioned in our last series preview, Pelfrey can go either way — he can be outstanding or awful, and there’s no logic to predict which. This one’s a tossup.
Final Thoughts
In April, I predicted that Joey Votto would be the NL MVP. Though the rest of those predictions are looking pretty awful (i.e. the Diamondbacks would win the NL West!), so far Votto is making me look somewhat intelligent. He’s hitting .354 with 10 homers and 41 RBI in 54 games, and if not for a stint on the DL due to stress and dizziness, he might be vying for the Triple Crown.
Outside of Votto and Brandon Phillips, the Reds don’t have much firepower (OK, Jay Bruce has 18 jacks, but he’s hitting only .208). In many ways, they resemble the Mets — a team that was originally built depending on the homerun, but unfortunately the strategy of waiting for the long ball has often left them dry. Unlike the Mets, however, the Reds don’t steal many bases (only 47), and their team batting average is a paltry .248. That said, it’s no surprise that they’re 14th out of 16 NL teams in runs scored. Beside the disappointment of Bruce, Ramon Hernandez has lost the starting catcher’s job, Laynce Nix has won a job in left field, Edwin Encarnacion has fallen off the planet, Jerry Hairston is the best they can do at shortstop, and they’re trying to find ways to fit Jonny Gomes’ bat into the lineup.
Despite all that, their lineup still looks more dangerous than what the Mets can muster — though, that’s only on paper. In the reality of Citi Field, many of the Reds’ fly balls should be outs on the warning track, and their lack of speed is a major detriment on both sides of the ball in spacious Citi. If the Mets can keep their chin up, there’s no reason they can’t compete with Cincinnati in these three games — even without the Fantastic Four.
Mets – Dodgers: Quick Preview
The Brooklyn Dodgers of Los Angeles come into Flushing with a 52-30 record, the best in MLB, with their guns a-blazing. They send three starters to the mound with ERAs under four, and none of them can be considered their “ace”. They have scored the third-most runs in the NL — 43 more than the Mets — and lead the league in team batting average (.272, or two points better than the second-place Mets). And they score without the longball — they have 64 HRs, which is 14 more than the Mets but far below average compared to the rest of MLB. Which means they play “small ball”, which happens to be the brand of baseball best suited to the vast expanse of Citi Field.
Oh, and they’ve accomplished all this without Manny Ramirez for three-quarters of their games. And Manny is back.
The only thing going for the Mets is the Dodgers have been “treading water” over their last ten games, with five wins against five losses.
Game 1: Mike Pelfrey (6-3, 4.26 ERA) vs. Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 3.49 ERA)
Big Pelf has really been an enigma this year, mixing in starts like his last against Milwaukee (nearly 8 innings, 6 hits, no runs) with debacles like his June 4th start in Pittsburgh (3 IP, 9 hits, 8 ER). Which version of Pelfrey will show up tonight is anyone’s guess.
Kershaw, in many ways, is the lefthanded version of Pelfrey. The 21-year-old can be absolutely dominating at times, while looking lost at others. He’s induced as many as 12 ground balls in a game, and struck out as many as 13. Rarely does he get past the fifth inning, and he’s often his own worst enemy, particularly when it comes to bases on balls. Could this be any more fitting a matchup?
Game2: Oliver Perez (1-2, 9.97 ERA) vs. Hiroki Kuroda (3-4, 3.91 ERA)
The Thirty-Six-Million-Dollar Man returns to a Mets uniform in an attempt to keep his ERA from going into the teens. In four rehab starts covering 17 innings, Ollie allowed 17 hits, 11 walks, 2 homeruns, and 10 runs total (6 earned). However, he did strike out 18, so there’s that.
Perez faces Hiroki Kuroda, who is averaging 6 innings per start and sports a svelte 1.01 WHIP. How good is Kuroda’s control? He’s walked 9 batters in 48 innings. However, he’s been roughed up in four out of his last five starts — though, three of those came against American League teams.
Game 3: Livan Hernandez (5-4, 4.56 ERA) vs. Randy Wolf (3-3, 3.49 ERA)
Can we glaze over Livan’s last start? I think so, considering that he powered through 7 innings in 5 of his 6 starts previous to Philly. Those days are going to happen, and with Hernandez, they’ve happened rarely (4 bad starts out of 16 is pretty OK for a scrap heap reject). In Livan’s last start against LA, he was on the wrong end of a 2-1 ballgame. If Joe Torre checks the stats prior to making out the lineup card, he may consider writing in Brad Ausmus (.323 lifetime vs. Hernandez) and Mark Loretta (.333), who along with Rafael Furcal (.333), Andre Ethier (.375), James Loney (.364), Casey Blake (.400), and Manny Ramirez (.600) are members of the Livan Hernandez Fan Club.
Wolf is the guy that all the Monday morning quarterbacks say the Mets should’ve signed instead of Oliver Perez. Well gee, thanks for that bit of afterward wisdom. Looking back, maybe the Mets should’ve signed him for no reason other than to prevent him from starting against them, as he’s become a Mets killer over the last few years. In his last start vs. the Mets, he held them to two earned runs — and that lineup included Carlos Beltran in the 3-hole and a red-hot Angel Pagan at leadoff.
Final Thoughts
Not much to talk about. The Dodgers are a better team than the Mets on paper, on the field, on the mound, at bat, and fundamentally. That doesn’t mean they can’t be beat. It does, however, suggest that the Mets will have their hands full.
Series Preview: Mets vs. Phillies
The phireworks will be on the phield in Philadelphia this weekend, as the second-place Mets take on the phirst-place Phillies in a series that could be a turning point in the season for both teams.
In case you hadn’t noticed, the Phillies are not alone at the top of the division — the Florida Marlins have crept in to share the top seed thanks to an offensive resurgence and solid starting pitching. At the same time, the Phils have been stumbling mightily, losing their last three in a row and seven of their last ten ballgames.
The Phillies’ slide has been congruent with the absence of Raul Ibanez, who has been on the DL since June 18 with a groin strain. He was scheduled to return this evening in time for the Mets, but Philly has decided to play it cautious and hold him back a few days (what a novel concept!). Philadelphia has also been affected by injuries to their pitching staff — LOOGY Scott Eyre, middle man Clay Condrey, and rookie Antonio Bastardo are all on the DL, and Brad Lidge just came off a few days ago (Eyre might be activated this weekend). Additionally, Jimmy Rollins’ season-long slump continues, Cole Hamels has allowed 17 hits and 11 runs in his last 9 innings, and Lidge cannot be trusted to close games.
Game 1: Livan Hernandez(5-3, 4.04 ERA) vs. Rodrigo Lopez (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
You read that right — Rodrigo Lopez is alive and well and starting Friday night for the Phillies. Lopez, who hasn’t been relevant since 2005, and not thrown an MLB pitch in two years, was chosen to make this start instead of top prospect Carlos Carrasco (among others). The 33-year-old was 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts at Class AAA Lehigh Valley. From what I understand he still throws junk. Facing Lopez will be Livan Hernandez, who continues to do exactly what the Mets need him to do — eat innings and keep the team in ballgames. Keep on keeping on, Livan!
Game 2: Fernando Nieve (3-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. Jamie Moyer (6-6, 6.05 ERA)
Talk about a contrast in starters — one, a young flamethrower on the rise, the other, an old junkballer at his demise. Fernandomania suffered a setback a few days ago, but even Jorge Sosa wasn’t perfect through his first four starts (ironically, Sosa also lost his fourth start as a Met — an 8-1 drubbing at the hands of the Braves). If Nieve keeps his fastball down the way he did in his first three starts, he should be OK. What Moyer brings to the table is anyone’s guess — he’s been consistently inconsistent (though pretty impressive for someone collecting Social Security checks).
Game 3: Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA ) vs. Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08 ERA)
Santana is still among the top thee starters in all of baseball, but his month of June was the worst of his career. One can only hope that a new month changes that pattern. Blanton has been up and down, and lately down — the Phillies have lost all of his last five starts. He’s been pushed far beyond the 100-pitch count several times this year, so don’t be surprised to see him lingering if the game is close in the late innings.
Final Thoughts
The Mets might take two out of three, or even sweep. They could just as easily get swept — that’s the way this season is playing out for everyone in the NL East. Find a comfy chair, crack open a cold one, sit back, and enjoy the ballgames.
Or, if this rollercoaster ride is too much, distract yourself by attempting to grill the perfect burger this weekend — at least that goal is within your control.
Series Preview: Mets vs. Yankees Part Deux
The crosstown New York Yankees traverse into Flushing to face the Mets for a three-game series this weekend at Citi Field, putting an end to the blasphemy known as “interleague play” for the year. Each team comes in to the series settled in second place in their respective divisions, with the third- and fourth-place followers biting at their coattails. That said, this weekend means more than TV ratings for MLB and ticket revenues to the two teams (or does it? according to reports none of the games are sold out).
Game one: Mike Pelfrey (5-2, 4.74 ERA) vs. C.C. Sabathia (6-4, 3.71 ERA)
Sabathia was pulled out of his last start in the second inning due to bicep tightness, but is reportedly 100% and ready to go against the Mets. He only has one career start against the Mets, a 9-1 win in which he threw 8 innings, but it was so long ago it doesn’t matter. After a solid May, Pelfrey has taken a step backward in June, struggling to pitch to and through the sixth inning. He was ripped by the Rays five days ago, and has been hit hard in three of his last four starts. Mark Teixeira is 4-for-10 lifetime vs. Big Pelf.
Game two: Tim Redding (1-2, 6.08 ERA) vs. A.J. Burnett (5-4, 4.24 ERA)
Burnett has been a huge disappointment for the Yankees, but he found his stuff against the Mets two weekends ago, shutting them out for seven frames. Burnett lost his next start vs. the Marlins, but held the Fish to only one earned run over 6 1/3. Meantime, Redding put together his finest performance and first win as a Met — though, I still don’t trust him nor that possum on his chin. Mark Teixeira is 4-for-9 career against Redding, and all four hits are doubles.
Game three: Livan Hernandez (5-2, 4.05 ERA) vs. Chien-Ming Wang (0-6, 11.20 ERA)
Livan has been pitching well enough to merit consideration as the Mets’ second-best starter, but he didn’t fare too well in his game against the Yankees. After a five-inning, six-run drubbing by the Bronx Bombers, Livan rebounded with back-to-back, nearly identical, 7-inning, 8-hit, 2 ER performances vs. the Orioles and Cardinals (he is obviously a bird lover). Similarly, Wang’s last two starts were just as identical, but not nearly as impressive — 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER — against the Braves and Nationals. The scary thing for Yankees fans is, those two most recent performances by Wang are his best of the year — by far. Considering how well the Yanks lineup handled Hernandez, and Wang’s apparent turning a corner, this game is not as much a slam dunk for the Mets as it might’ve looked two weeks ago.
Oh, and Mark Teixeira is 3-for-6 career vs. Hernandez, including two homeruns. But it doesn’t stop there. Nick Swisher (.357), Alex Rodriguez (.579, 3 HR, 5 doubles), Derek Jeter (.421), Robinson Cano (.444), Melky Cabrera (.400), Jorge Posada (.333), and Hideki Matsui (.429) all enjoy teeing off on Livan Hernandez.
Final Thoughts
Which Mets team will show up this weekend? The one that beats the Cardinals three out of four or the one that lost the four series previous? The one that can’t manage more than two hits off of journeyman Joel Pineiro or the one that pounds St. Louis pitching for 16 hits and 11 runs? The one that loses heartbreakers in the final innings or the one that shows grit and intestinal fortitude when times get tough? It’s anybody’s guess, and they’re going into a series against a team with an ironically similar split personality disorder. Sit back and enjoy (and keep the hard alcohol / meds / happy thoughts nearby, just in case).
Notable milestones: Mariano Rivera’s next save will be #500 for his career. Argenis Reyes’ next walk will be #5 of his MLB lifetime.
Quick Preview: Mets vs. Rays
The Mets host the Tampa Bay Rays for a weekend series in Flushing. For those wondering, no, the DH will NOT be used.
Midnight has struck since the 2008 World Series, and the Rays’ ride to the postseason turned into a pumpkin. Several of the team’s hitters are slumping, their young pitchers have taken a step back, and they find themselves in fourth place in the AL East, six games behind the leaders. Still, though, they have a winning record (35-33), and a roster chock full of talent. This will be no walk in the park for the Mets.
Game 1: Fernando Nieve (1-0, 2.08 ERA) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (5-6, 6.65 ERA)
Nieve is coming off a brilliant start in the Bronx vs. the Yankees, so the best we can hope is a repeat performance. Nieve does have the same advantage of unknown quantity against the Rays hitters that he held against the Yanks. If he throws strikes, he has a good chance to win — particularly in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field.
Sonnanstine had a surprising year in 2008 but thus far has fallen back to Earth and pitching the way the scouts expect him to. He’s not overpowering by any stretch of the imagination, but he allows very few free passes, throws tons of strikes, and has a quirky delivery that keeps batters off-balance. His bugaboo is the long ball, which will likely be neutralized at Citi Field against the powerless Mets. This contest could be a low-scoring affair.
Game Two: Johan Santana (8-4, 3.29 ERA) vs. James Shields (5-5, 3.52 ERA)
Wow, is Johan’s ERA really over three? It wasn’t long ago that it was barely above 1.00. Hopefully, Santana and Dan Warthen worked out the mechanical issue that was cutting his velocity and command. We’ll find out for sure on Saturday. Shields is a front-of-the-rotation starter who could be described as a righthanded Santana, as he relies heavily on a nasty changeup and a low-90s fastball. This should be a classic matchup of highly skilled competitors.
Game 3: Mike Pelfrey (5-2, 4.56 ERA)vs. Jeff Niemann (6-4, 4.21 ERA)
Niemann has been touted for greatness since being drafted in the first round out of Rice in 2004 (where he was teammates with Philip Humber), but a major shoulder injury derailed his career. At 6′9″, 280 lbs., he is a monster, and has the stuff to go with the body. However, he barely made the 25-man roster out of spring training, and is still figuring out how to retire big-league hitters. Pelfrey is coming off a fairly good start that David Wright felt could be a little better. I think this game will be a rubber match, and feel it will be fairly even based on the starters. I’d like Big Pelf and Niemann to stand on the mound together and have an umpire toss a baseball up between them, to see which one would win the tipoff.
Final Thoughts
Interesting note: in 10 games and through 24 batters, LOOGY Randy Choate has allowed one hit.
The pitching matchups are fairly even, and the bullpens are similarly skilled. So, these games could come down to the offense that makes the best use of their tools in application to expansive Citi Field. On the one hand, the Rays rely heavily on the long ball — Carlos Pena, Ben Zobrist, and Evan Longoria all have double-digit homerun totals — but they also have some athletically gifted speedsters such as Carl Crawford (37 steals) and B.J. Upton (25 SB), and the .376-hitting Jason Bartlett has just returned from the DL.
It could be a long weekend.
Quick Preview: Mets vs. Phillies
Note: this series has importance.
Game One: Johan Santana (7-3, 2.00 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.47 ERA)
Santana has looked more like a mere mortal over his past few starts, but still has been stellar. J.A. / JA Happ still refuses to put a “y” at the end of his first name, but is much improved in comparison to the rookie the Mets saw last year. His WHIP is a Santana-like 0.98 and he has a 1.16 ERA away from Citizens Bank Park. If Happ can keep his cool, this could turn out to be a pitchers’ duel.
Game Two: Mike Pelfrey (4-2, 4.85 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.40 ERA)
Big Pelf is coming off the worst start of his career, but I’m not worried — I’m chalking it up to the unusual start time (12:30 PM) and being due for a bad game. Hamels has struggled all spring with a nagging injuries to his ankle and arm, and is not the lights-out guy he was last year. That said, and with Pelfrey looking great prior to his last outing, suggests that this will be a more even matchup than one might expect.
Game Three: Tim Redding (0-2, 6.97 ERA) vs. Jamie Moyer (4-5, 6.27 ERA)
The finale pits two struggling veterans who offer no clue as to how this game might turn out. Redding is coming off one of his two best performances of the season, but nonetheless seemed ever on the brink of disaster. Moyer was awful in April and May, but was very good in his last two outings, allowing a combined 3 runs on 7 hits and no walks in 13 innings against the Dodgers and Nationals. What worries me is Moyer’s remarkable ability to pull a gem of a game out of nowhere … one of those games that has a quick but uneventful rhythm, where before you know it, it’s the 8th inning and the Mets are down 2-1. The expanse of Citi Field will contain the fly balls of Howard, Utley, etc., but what concerns me more is the Phillies’ ability to put the bat on the ball against Redding, who has not been hurt by the long ball but rather a multitude of line drives and grounders that find holes.
Closing Thoughts
Much is being made of the fact that the Phils are sending three lefties to the mound in this series, but I don’t see it as a major issue one way or the other — if anything, it means that Gary Sheffield will be somewhere in the middle of the lineup, and that’s a good thing for the Mets.
The Phillies are coming off a four-game split Los Angeles, one that could have been a sweep for Philly had closer Brad Lidge not blown the middle two games in heartbreaking, emotionally draining fashion. Lidge’s confidence is visibly shaken, and he’s leaving fat, flat sliders over middle of the plate, and his ERA has swelled to 7.27. In many ways, he resembles the pitcher Houston couldn’t wait to get rid of in 20006-2007, and Charlie Manuel may elect to defer to Ryan Madson in a ninth-inning save situation. If Lidge does remain the closer, this series could be a turning point one way or another for veteran righthander.
More good news for the Mets is that Jimmy Rollins is still struggling — mightily. He’s hitting only .222 with a .261 OBP and is sinking further and further down the lineup. It’s gotten to the point that Eric Bruntlett is taking at-bats from him.
Thus far this year, the Phillies’ success has been due to solid starting pitching, but Brad Lidge has singlehandedly removed that factor from the equation recently. The pitching matchups look pretty even on paper, and if Lidge continues to struggle, the Mets have a definite edge, particularly if these games are as low-scoring as I suspect. Considering the players missing from Mets’ roster, they’re running into the Phillies at a good time, in the right place.
Mets – Marlins Quick Preview
The Mets host the fish this weekend for a three-game set, but just as important, the Phillies are facing the Nationals. In cavernous Citi Field, most of the fly balls of Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, and other sluggers in the Washington lineup were simply long outs, thereby castrating Connie Macta’s main offensive weapons (did you know that Washington is tied for second in the NL in homeruns with 53?). Deprived of the long ball, the Nationals’ poor pitching and questionable defense became exposed — it’s hard to win with Moneyball tactics in a big stadium, where athleticism and speed rule.
But in Citizens Bank Park, where routine flies regularly coast over the wall, the Nats have a fighting chance, even against the phightin’ Phils. Washington can make errors and give up runs, but their ability to get on base and wait for three-run homers is the ideal strategy in CBP, and should keep them in the game. In other words, don’t expect the Phils to sweep the Nats — and if they do, they won’t be able to do it as easily as the Mets did.
That’s the good news for the Mets. More good news is that the Mets are facing the Marlins, who have been reeling (or is it reeled in?) since late April. Opening Day starter Read more
Quick Preview: Mets vs. Dodgers
After nearly sweeping the Giants, the Mets have positioned themselves among the NL elite. For the next three days they face another of the “elite”, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
However, the Mannyless Dodgers are 5-5, though they remain in first place in the NL West. (BTW, did you know that Manny didn’t actually fail the drug test? Interesting story here.) The Mets are Delgadoless, and have been Reyesless (and Putzless for two days), yet it hasn’t had an effect on their win-loss record. In fact, the team is 3-1 without Reyes and 4-3 since Delgado’s last game. Reyes is expected to return for the LA series, while Delgado is on the DL. Let’s look at the pitching matchups.
Game one: Tim Redding (0-0) vs. Randy Wolf (2-1, 2.77 ERA)
Hard to say what Tim Redding will do. When he wasn’t injured during spring training, he was awful. So awful, in fact, that the nearly as awful Freddy Garcia appeared to have a shot at making the roster (before Livan Hernandez came to the rescue). Redding made two starts for AAA Buffalo, pitching 13 innings, allowing 13 hits, 2 walks, 1 HR, 4 runs, striking out 9. Wolf’s record thus far looks great, but the Dodgers are 4-4 in his 8 starts. Over the last three years, he’s 5-0 against the Mets with a 3.60 ERA. Luis Castillo is hitting .409 lifetime vs. Wolf over 49 at-bats, Carlos Beltran rips him to the tune of .379.
Game two: John Maine (3-2, 4.20 ERA) vs. Chad Billingsley(5-1, 2.30 ERA)
This is not exactly the matchup the Mets would want, but the way Maine has been pitching lately, it’s hard to say the Dodgers have an edge. Maine has won three of his last four starts and gone 6 innings or more in each of them. Meanwhile, Billingsley has assumed the role of ace, pitching 7 or more innings in 6 of his 8 starts, striking out 56 in 54 innings, holding opposing batters to a .206 average and posting a 1.12 WHIP. Interestingly, three of the Mets who have hit him well are on the DL (Brian Schneider, .300; Carlos Delgado, .400) or in the minors (Cory Sullivan, 5-for-8 with a HR).
Game three: Livan Hernandez (3-1, 5.59 ERA) vs. Eric Stults (4-1, 3.82 ERA)
This matchup looks pretty even, on paper … in fact, the Mets may have the edge. Hernandez has had a few bad outings, but all in all, has given the Mets better than decent performance for a #5 starter. Personally, I feel like the Mets have a chance to win when he’s on the mound. Similarly, Stults is providing decent performance as a back-end starter for the Dodgers, though he rarely gets past the fifth inning. He had one outstanding, 4-hit shutout against the Giants, but has otherwise been just good enough to give his team a chance to win — LA is 6-1 in his starts. It should be noted that Stults sprained his thumb on May 17th, and could miss this start; if so, Jeff Weaver will take his place (stop salivating).
Closing Thoughts
Even without Manny, the Dodgers would, from this perspective, appear to be a stronger team than the Giants. That’s not to say the Mets can’t win this series, but at minimum LA should put up a better fight. The starting pitching matchups are fairly even, and the bullpens are comparable — though assuming J.J. Putz is healthy, the Mets should have an edge in the final two innings. The Dodgers have a lot of “character” or “gritty” guys that I like — Casey Blake, Russell Martin, Blake DeWitt, Mark Loretta, and Orlando Hudson for example — but they have to prove they can win without Manny, who was the lynchpin of their success. Similarly, the Mets will have to learn to win without Delgado — though he was hardly missed over the last week. Because Manny’s not around, I wouldn’t qualify this series as a “test”, though it is an appropriate “pre-test” for the one coming up in Boston.
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