Mets Today

After sweeping the Braves out of Shea, the New York Mets begin a weekend series tonight against the Houston Astros.

The Astros come in with a 64-63 record, which is respectable, but puts them in fourth place, 14 games behind the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs.

In many ways, the Astros are something of a disappointment this season, considering their offensive output in 2007 and significant offseason moves. However, it’s not looking good for them right now, and we’ve called on Lisa Gray of MVN’s Astros Dugout to give us an idea of what happened down in Houston.

1. What the heck happened? After acquiring Miguel Tejada in the offseason, the Astros seemed poised to make a serious run at the playoffs. Where did the plans for success go wrong?

Miguel Tejada was not the offensive force that the Astros thought he was and in fact, he has had only one good month with the bat. J.R. Towles and Michael Bourn also were not the offensive forces. But the main reason there hasn’t been the kind of success that the Organization hoped for is that they simply do not have good pitching.

2. Any consideration to putting Brandon Backe at 1B or LF when he’s not pitching? That .308 average and .513 slugging percentage is pretty impressive.

Well, we have Lance Berkman at first and he is kind of pretty good you know what I’m sayin. The person he might replace is Hunter Pence in right, who has seriously regressed as a hitter this year, another reason this team hasn’t done nearly as well offensively as predicted.

3. In mid-July, the Houston was mired in last place, over a dozen games out of first in a division that is clearly dominated by the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs. Yet, GM Ed Wade was wheeling and dealing like the Astros were in the thick of the pennant race. What was he thinking, and how do you as a fan feel about him bringing in re-treads and rentals such as Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins?

I understand why it was done - the owner thinks that if he doesn’t put a team of vets on the field and say that we’re “competing” that fans won’t show up. However, he really has no one of any value to trade who doesn’t have a no-trade, and there really are no minor leaguers near to ready to come up. I just hope that we don’t re-sign LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf.

4. Maybe I’m being too harsh … as an Astros fan, are you still hopeful that the playoffs are possible, or have you resigned to rebuilding for 2009?

Oh, I’m always hopeful. I’m hopeful that Grady Sizemore will call me this afternoon and tell me he’s in love with me. However, I’m not holding my breath. And I’m not holding my breath about “rebuilding” for 2009 either. We may see Felipe Paulino in the rotation, if he’s healthy, and we will probably see J.R. Towles take Ausmus’ spot, but I doubt there will be any trades of veterans for prospects.

5. Who has been the biggest surprise this season? The biggest disappointment?

The biggest surprise has been Ty Wigginton, who has fielded better than the absolute disaster I expected, and hit better (except with RISP) than I expected, even before his hot streak.

The biggest disappointment, I guess, would be Miguel Tejada, who occupies the #3 hole and can’t hit with MOB or drive in runs. Unlike many other fans, I didn’t expect Tejada to hit .330 and hit 50 homers, but he hasn’t lived up to even 50th percentile projections.

6. What would you like to see happen with the Astros between now and the end of the season? During the offseason?

sigh….

What I would LIKE to see isn’t going to happen.
I would really like this team to try to acquire prospects and good young players, but they won’t, so at the very least, I would like them to try to sign at least ONE starter who could be a #2 as we ALREADY have plenty of #5 type guys.

7. What youngster(s), either on the Astros 25-man roster now or in the minors, should we be looking for this September and in 2009?

I would like to see Tommy Manzella, shortstop, whose glove is said to equal Adam Everett’s and J.R. Towles, who has regained his stroke at AAA. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if they instead call up a bunch of washed up AAAA guys.

Again, in 09, best I can tell right now, the only guys I am pretty sure about are Paulino and Towles. IF Brian Bogusevic, who couldn’t get A ball guys out as a pitcher, continues to hit like Ankiel, he might could earn a call-up, youneverknow.

Thanks again to Lisa Gray for her insight. Be sure to check out Astros Dugout for more information on the Houston Astros.

Can the Mets make it ten?

The Mets won 9 straight games, turning themselves into a juggernaut that could only be stopped by the All-Star break. Let’s hope they can regain their momentum tonight as they open a 4-game series in Cincinnati.

Game One: Johan Santana vs. Johnny Cueto

Johan’s less-than-stellar record hides his sparkling ERA. We keep hearing how he is a “second half pitcher”. Well, it’s now officially the second half, so start kicking some butt, Mr. Santana!

Cueto got rocked by the Mets back in May, lasting only 4 2/3 and allowing 6 runs on 8 hits. He might have been spooked by the big stage in NYC, and could be more comfortable in Cincinnati. He’s been up and down, sometimes spectacular, sometimes awful — a lot like Mike Pelfrey was until recently.

Game Two: John Maine vs. Bronson Arroyo

Last year John Maine was on a hot streak going into the ASB, then faltered. This year, he faltered going into the break, so let’s hope the time off is a positive, rather than a negative, this time around. I’d like to see Dan Warthen fix Maine’s mechanics, which to me appear to be a bit off.

Arroyo keeps coming up in trade rumors, and I’m not sure why. Yes, he lit the world on fire in his first half-season in Cincinnati in 2006, but hasn’t been anything special since. Like in the “other” league, once the NL hitters got used to Arroyo, he became over-exposed and isn’t much more than a .500 pitcher. His ERA is currently a hair under 6.

Game Three: Oliver Perez vs. Josh Fogg

My my … Josh Fogg is still drawing a big league paycheck? Wonders never cease. He carries a 7.94 ERA into the game, high enough to keep Adam Eaton looking effective.

Oliver Perez has been nasty — in a good way — over his last three starts. My biggest concern is, will he take the Reds lightly and pitch down to the competition? This may turn out to be the key game of the series.

Game Four: Pedro Martinez vs Edinson Volquez

Volquez is currently the best Reds pitcher, though I’m not sure I’d trade Josh Hamilton for him. Had he not allowed a two-run homer to J.D. Drew, perhaps Billy Wagner’s performance wouldn’t have been so glaring. In any case, Volquez pitched 7 innings and struck out 10 in his last “real” game, and sports a 12-3 record and 2.29 ERA. Not too shabby.

Will Pedro really make the start? We think so, but no one knows for sure. Last time out, it was a tight shoulder that was due to a tight groin. His hamstring appears to be OK, and we think the toe is completely healed. What else can he injure? Just ask Orlando Hernandez … who for all we know could be replacing Pedro in the rotation sooner rather than later.

Bottom Line

This four-game jaunt is a warmup for Philadelphia; I don’t expect the Mets to get to 13 in a row, and will be very happy with a split. That may sound pessimistic, but there are some things concerning me:

1. Cueto is capable of pitching lights-out, and shutting down the Mets’ Alouless and Churchless offense.

2. John Maine’s last three starts have been troubling.

3. Can Ollie keep it up?

You’d think nine straight wins would fill me with confidence, but I still have “guarded optimism”. If the Mets can take two, there’s a good chance they go into Philly in the same position they’re in right now: second place, a half game back. I’m fine with that.

If there was ever a time for the Mets to shake this win-one, lose-one thing, it’s now.

The Mets invade Philadelphia phor a a three-game phor-game series with the phirst-place Phillies. The series could mean nothing. Or, it could mean everything.

As it stands now, the Mets have a 42-43 record, four and a half games out of first. The fightin’ Phils are 47-39, and have the 44-41 Florida Fish as a buffer zone between themselves and the Mets.

If the Mets split, the series is a wash. If they lose three, it won’t have much effect one way or the other. Oh, sure, the Mets will drop down another game or two, but we’re at a point now where it doesn’t matter much. We can still say “there’s plenty of season left”, “Johan is a second-half pitcher”, “Moises Alou will come back healthy after the All-Star break”, and similar delusions.

Interestingly, if the Mets take three of four, it will be equally indifferent. Yeah, winning the series will be nice, but it will make their record on game over .500, and they’ll still be about four games back.

However, if the Mets sweep, it’s a whole new ballgame.

A sweep would put the Mets at 46-43. A few games over .500 doesn’t look so encouraging, but it’s what they’ll do to the Phillies’ loss column that matters. You see, a sweep by the Mets increases the Phillies’ loss total to 42, and the Mets will still be at 43 — separating the two teams by only one loss. The beauty of looking at loss totals is this: as the season progresses, you can win more, but you can’t lose less.So although the Phillies would be five games over .500 after suffering a sweep, they’ll be in a tougher position because they’ll have already played 91 games to the Mets’ 89. Now again, look at the loss column. The Mets will have two extra games between now and the end of the season — two games they have an opportunity to win. In contrast, the Phillies can’t erase the two extra losses.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that the Mets will win those two extra games, or that they’ll win enough in the second half to make those two games matter. But we can dream, can’t we?

Here are the pitching matchups:

Friday: Johan Santana vs. J.A. Happ
A few weeks ago, this is a no-brainer: pocket a win for the Mets. However, Johan has yet to win under Jerry Manuel’s leadership, and despite a sparkling ERA has performed short of expectations. His velocity is down, gopher balls are up, and he’s already thrown David Wright under the bus. The Mets beat up on Happ in his lone start last year, but Happ has been outstanding in AAA of late. No guarantees here.

Saturday: John Maine vs. Jamie Moyer
Again, this should be a guaranteed win for the Mets, but Maine has fallen on hard times lately, the victim of a “dead arm” (or is it a dead head?). The 86-year-old Moyer is kryptonite against overly aggressive lineups such as the Mets, and seems to always find a way to keep the Mets handcuffed over six to seven innings. I’d love to say Maine’s going to step up and take this game, but there’s this lingering doubt in my mind.

Sunday: Oliver Perez vs. Kyle Kendrick
Ollie Perez is synonymous with “tossup”. We don’t know what Kendrick will bring to the table, and we don’t care, because his performance is moot in relation to the game’s outcome. If Ollie pitches up to his competition, the way he did in the Bronx last week, then the Mets will win — end of story. If Mr. Hyde shows up, then the Mets will either pack it in after falling behind early, or will have to temporarily take on the Phillies’ offensive personality and turn the game into home run derby. As much as I love the Mets, I don’t like their chances in a slugfest against the Phillies. I’m not a betting man, so I won’t put money on nor against Ollie. I will, however, cross my fingers in hopes that Mr. Hyde stays far away.

Monday: Pedro Martinez vs. Adam Eaton
Like Ollie Perez and lately John Maine, we have no idea what Pedro will give us — it’s a complete crapshoot. And speaking of crap, there’s Adam Eaton, perhaps the crappiest starting pitcher in the National League, who for some reason manages to pitch like Christy Mathewson against the Mets.

Bottom Line

Can the Mets sweep the Phillies and therefore make the second half exciting? Of course — anything is possible. Will they? Probably not. Personally, I’m going to assume that the Mets continue their win / lose pattern, and hope they take at least one or two of these games. If they take three, great — it will be a pleasant surprise. If that sounds pessimistic, I apologize, but the reality is that thus far, the Mets have not given me any reason to expect dominance.

The “new” Mets, led by interim manager Jerry Manuel, head to the hills to play the Colorado Rockies for a three-game weekend series.

Last year’s NL Champions are having a tough time so far this season, struggling with a 31-42 record and 8 games behind the NL West leading Arizona Diamondbacks. The only thing keeping them out of the cellar is the fact that the Giants and Padres are performing just as poorly. However, all is not lost for the Rox. It’s still early in the season, and the D-Backs are not exactly dominating the West. All a Colorado fan must do to keep the faith is look to last year and the Rockies’ mad rush down the wire that placed them in the postseason. A similar rush could be starting right now, in fact — the Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and should have key players returning from the DL shortly.

To get a view of the Rockies from up in the mountains, we called on Brandi Griffin — a.k.a., “RoxGirl” — from Purple Row, one of the popular Rockies blogs.

1. Last year’s rollercoaster ride saw the Rockies go from pretenders to contenders, ending up in the World Series. Thus far this season, the Rox are mired in the NL West cellar and 12 games under .500. What do you think is the chance of a repeat of last year — a strong finish that takes them back to the postseason?

First of all, I think it’s crucial that the Rockies get within a couple of games of .500 by the All-Star Break. There’s simply no reason to think that a team more than five games under with seventy left to play has a chance to come back, regardless of how close they are to the division lead. Beyond that, however, the fact of the matter is that the NL West is still very much in play as only eight and a half games separate the division leader from the cellar dweller (which as of last night, is no longer the Rox, thankfully).The Diamondbacks had a chance to put the division in the cooler in May, but didn’t. Now everybody else, including the Rockies, has an opportunity to make a comeback. As for the Rockies chances specifically, I wouldn’t put it past them. Last season, the Rockies were still eight games back in the division as late as the beginning of July, so if we can close the gap a little these next couple of weeks, we should become a viable threat.

Plus, last season’s experience could benefit the team as the pressure mounts. I would think it would get easier to make stunning comeback runs if you had experience with them beforehand. Holes in one in golf are a good analogy. The odds of making just one are staggering, and to make two the odds are seen as sort of monumental, but it is a skill we’re talking about, and golfers who have made hole-in-ones in the past are as a group more likely to have future hole-in-ones than players who have never hit one. I think the experience of a successful late charge gives the Rockies one edge over the rest of their division rivals in the comeback chase, but Iâ??ll grant that having a solid one through five in the rotation and an All-Star caliber lineup just perhaps might be a slightly bigger edge. Luckily, none of the NL West teams can boast that.

One thing that plays against the Rockies this season is that it’s looking likely that the Wild Card is going to be completely out of reach to NL West teams (thanks solely to our own ineptitude) by the middle of July, if it’s not already. The Mets and other teams around .500 or above definitely have an advantage in that there are still two possible avenues to the playoffs for them, the Rockies only chance this year it seems is to overtake the D-backs.

2. Injuries have been a problem for the Rox this year, but the fill-ins, for the most part, have done an admirable job. When / if everyone is healthy, who will be playing shortstop and second base?

Shortstop will be played by Troy Tulowitzki, second base might be more of an open question for a little while. Tulo’s April was awful, but there was a lot of bad luck with balls in play in his stats, and I think colder weather is a bigger factor for him than it is for many other players. Ian Stewart will likely be sent back to AAA to improve his pitch recognition while Omar Quintanilla will stay on as a defensive replacement and left-handed utility player. Second will come down to either Jeff Baker or Clint Barmes. Baker’s got the hot bat right now, but Barmes was almost equally impressive before his injury and he brings better defense at the position. I think Hurdle will use Baker as a super-sub for Helton or Hawpe against left-handed pitching, also to spell Atkins on occasion, and Barmes will be the primary second baseman but will be subbed for by Baker on some days as well, especially if his bat goes as cold as it did the last time he went down with an extended injury. Similarly, if Tulo continues to struggle, Hurdle will start to use a Barmes at short, Baker at second combo fairly frequently. It’s good to have as many options as we do, though, I’d rather have too many good bats that the manager is trying to find time for than not enough.

3. Over the winter, the Mets signed and then “unsigned” Yorvit Torrealba. Are you happy he returned? Was there ever any scoop in Colorado as to why the Mets contract fell apart?

The word that was leaked was that the Mets suddenly had concerns about Torrealba’s shoulder. However, since they never actually had anybody do a physical on Yorvit, it tells me that this is probably a complete fabrication. Watching how Omar Minaya operates when he wants to get out of something leads to me suspect that the truth is that somehow Minaya actually figured out that no other team was going to bid close to as much for Torrealba, so he just burned those bridges quickly and thoroughly in an attempt to avoid being discredited by the New York media for such a glaringly stupid move as offering the contract in the first place. Good for you guys that you got out of it, but I think it should have been more of a sign that your front office can be pretty clueless than it was taken for at the time.

I think Yorvit does well as a backup or split time catcher, as he’s shown lately while Chris Iannetta has gotten more playing time, but is particularly ill-suited for a starterâ??s role. He has a tendency to get complacent in both his approach at the plate and behind it if he doesn’t feel like he’s being pushed or his job is being threatened and he doesn’t have nearly enough skills to stay valuable while also slacking like that.

4. What’s the chance of Brian Fuentes finishing the year in a Colorado uniform? Is Manny Corpas ready to be a closer?

Corpas has struggled a bit this season with his mechanics and until he shows that he’s fixed this the answer is no. As for Fuentes, I think it depends on how close we are and how desperate other GMs are. Fuentes is almost certain to be a Type A free agent after the season, meaning any deal would have to be equal or greater than the value of two top 60 draft picks. I don’t know if I’d want my team giving up that kind of package for a rental reliever unless I was sure that this was all I needed to put me over the top. Fuentes is very good at his job, and underappreciated by most Rockies fans and certainly baseball fans in general. Imagine if you had a reliever over three seasons pitch 208 1/3 innings with a 3.24 ERA, a 228/71 K/BB ratio and a .681 OPS against. Pretty good, right? Now think about if that reliever did that while playing every single one of his games in the most hitter friendly stadium in the majors in Coors Field. That’s Fuentes’ line at Coors and the context should take him from “yeah, not bad,” to “dang this guy’s good” if one’s fairly assessing him.

5. Dang indeed. Moving on … Who has been the biggest disappointment on the Rockies thus far? Who has been the most pleasant surprise?

Lots of possibilities for disappointment. I think, for me, I would have to eliminate guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Manny Corpas or Franklin Morales because they are so young and talented, and inconsistency is just sort of a way of life with young ballplayers typically. So while they’re certainly disappointing, there’s enough hope for a brighter future there to mitigate that. So I guess my biggest disappointment would be with Jeff Francis, who after winning 17 games for us last season, and for the most part pitching like he deserved that, has just been woeful this season. It’s a heavy blow to take when one of your expected top two starters, a veteran, but not an old one, whose performances should be relatively consistent, suddenly falls off a cliff. Francis has pitched better the last couple of outings, so I’m hoping for a turnaround, but he’s been the cause of a lot of my pessimism and angst this year.

As for pleasant surprises, I think I was most surprised by the resurgence of Clint Barmes, which I just really didn’t see coming and am frankly still a little skeptical about.

6. Bottom of the ninth, tie game, two outs, winning run on third. Who on the Rockies do you want to see at the plate?

Matt Holliday. Easily. I mean clutch might not be a real phenomenon, but he’s one of those players that has definitely given a lot of positive enforcement to the contrary, leading the team in WPA each of the last two seasons. You compare him to say Garrett Atkins, who overall hits very well, but doesn’t seem to come through late in games or with runners on as often or Todd Helton, who can be counted on for a walk or the occasional dramatics but not the consistent show stopper. People remember the bloody chin slide and phantom tag of home more, but just before that, Matt’s opposite field triple in game 163 against Trevor Hoffman to tie the game was just an incredible piece of hitting in one of the most leveraged situations imaginable.

7. Same situation as above, but the Mets are at bat. Who would you least like to see in the batter’s box?

Beltran would be nerve wracking, but I’d have to go with David Wright. I know from my fantasy team that he hasn’t had his best season, but he’s clearly a dangerous hitter. If you are wanting my off-the-wall, from a Rockies fan only perspective, I’ll also add Damion Easley. Seriously. He reached safely in four straight pinch-hit or late-game defensive sub ABs against us over the last two seasons, including a double and a game winning homerun (which started the streak) in April 2007 before we finally got him out for once this past May. He;s been added to my list of Pedro Feliz All-Stars, players who are top caliber against the Rockies but scrubs to everybody else.

Well done. Thanks again to RoxGirl for providing insight on the upcoming Mets - Rockies series. Be sure to check out PurpleRow for top-notch information on the Colorado Rockies.

Who is Edwar Ramirez and why doesn’t he have a “d” at the end of his first name? Seriously, he looks pretty nasty so far … might he be an answer in the late innings?

He’s got a nice change up, but he was up and down last year. And right now, the end of the game is the least of the Yankees concern. Ohlendorf has pitched well, and hell, even Cooter Farmadooke hasn’t been the frustrating meathead that he usually is. Of course, Chamberlain is tough and then there is the great Mariano. My friend Steve Goldman recently said that watching Mariano these days must have been like what watching Fred Astaire was like at the end of his career. He’s still so graceful, his delivery so smooth and seemingly effortless. I don’t know if there is another player that makes me appreciate the moment more than Rivera. I feel so fortunate to have watched him all these years. You know the old saying about how the great ones are more than just their numbers? I really get that feeling with Rivera, who has two gut-wrenching playoff loses to his name, but still he’s been so great for so long. And getting back to the numbers, here is one that still gets me excited: 0.77 ERA in 117 career post season innings. Amazing.

Any other “unknowns” to watch for this weekend?

I’d expect the Mets to take two of three, especially with Santana pitching. Cano had four hits tonight, maybe he’s starting to hit. But without Rodriguez and Posada, lefties really give them trouble. And right now, they are offensively…challenged.

Finally, how do you feel about this annual Subway Series? Is it me or is this thing getting a little tired?

I haven’t really enjoyed the subway serious in a long time. I know MLB wants to maximize the moolah, but if there has to be interleague play I’d have the Yanks and Mets play one, three-game series each year, taking turns, one year in the Bronx, the next in Queens. That might give the match-up a little more urgency. Otherwise, I think it’s just hype. I’d rather the Yankees face the Indians or the Angels more than some random NL teams–they are playing the Reds this summer…okay…The series is really for the fans, and I suppose heads still get amped for it, still turn out and enjoy the bragging rights. But there is nothing special about the subway series. It’d be special if it happened in the World Serious. Otherwise, it’s just another series, with a lot of racket around it.

Subway “serious” and “World Serious” … loving that … those who are avid readers of Ring Lardner should appreciate that one. Here’s to hoping Alex is right about the weekend, especially that part abou the Mets taking two out of three.

Thanks again to Alex Belth for giving us a full day’s worth of opinion from the Yankees fan’s perspective. Be sure to check out Bronx Banter, Alex’s columns on Sports Illustrated, and his excellent book on Curt Flood.

I know you’ve been a fan of the Yanks since the 1970s, so surely you have a place in your heart for Willie Randolph. Unfortunately, the Mets fans and pundits are calling for his head after every loss … it’s getting awful. I rarely stick my head out of my Mets vacuum, so don’t know if that’s the case with Girardi. Is there a lot of noise about firing him, or that the Yankees made a mistake in offending Joe Torre (or not hiring Don Mattingly)?

If so, here’s an idea: How about we trade managers, since most fans complain that Willie doesn’t play small ball, doesn’t motivate the players, doesn’t get fired up enough, doesn’t argue with umps, doesn’t get thrown out of games, doesn’t handle the pitching staff properly, and his “Torre style” of managing doesn’t work in the NL. (I don’t necessarily agree with all these complaints) Knowing the public perception of Girardi, you’d think he’d be perfect for the “Fire Willie” camp. And perhaps getting a Torre disciple would ease the fans in the Bronx?

I haven’t paid close enough attention to how Randolph manages to have an opinion one way or the other about him as a field general, but the manager usually gets the brunt of the blame when his team underachieves. So far as I can tell, Girardi hasn’t gotten much grief in the BX. He’s strange. I knew he was uptight which is a perfect fit for the Yankees. But I’ve been surprised at how secretive he’s been at times with the media re: player injuries. Almost to the point of being paranoid. Since he played and coached for Torre, worked for YES and FOX, I didn’t expect that from him. Michael Kay has said that Girardi reminds him of Billy Martin in that he takes losses very hard. You can see him, pale and drained after a loss. I think he’s equal parts Buck Showalter and Bill Virdon.

It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out for him. My contention all along is that you wouldn’t want to be the guy who replaces Joe Torre, you want to be the guy who replaces the guy who replaces Torre. Still, for a guy following Torre, I think Girardi is fine. He’s not beloved in the way that Mattingly is, but I think he can take what comes–success or failure–and survive it as well as anyone in his position could.

As for manager-swapping, I’d just assume keep Girardi over Randolph. And I think Met fans would embrace ANYONE who got his team winning. They’ll throw bouquets at Randolph’s feet too, although I fear that anything short of a championship would be considered a disapointment for Randolph at this point. I could be wrong about that. What’d your take?

Wait, I’m still trying to get over the combination of Bill Virdon and Buck Showalter — the vision of that gives me the willies (pardon the pun).

Naturally, I’d like to see the Mets in the Fall Classic again someday, and was frustrated by their underachievement last year. But the more Willie gets blamed, the more I find myself pulling for him. It’s as if he’s embodied the traditional Mets — an underdog, with seemingly no chance to win. That said, though I proposed the Randolph-for-Girardi trade, and believe a strong personality like Girardi is what many are clamoring for, the sentimental side of me wants to see Willie come out of this a winner. The logical side, though, is starting to lose confidence in Mr. Randolph.

OK, I’m finished … in the next installment, we finally discuss the series at hand. In particular, Alex will educate us on the Yankees bullpen, who stole the “d” at the end of Edwar Ramirez’s name, and which team he predicts will win the series (you may be surprised). Check back in a little while ….

Seeing how Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy have been struggling, would you do the Philip Hughes / Ian Kennedy / Melky Cabrera for Johan Santana deal today? Why or why not?

I was hoping the Yanks made that deal over the winter although many Yankee fans I know–including my co-host at Bronx Banter Cliff and many of our readers–were dead set against giving up Hughes and IPK for Santana. Considering how Hughes and Kennedy have done this year, it’s easy to say the Yanks should have made the deal, but it’s way to early to make that call yet. Will probably be a few years before we have any sense of how it turned out. Again, though I was for the trade, I can’t fault the Yankees’ thinking–going with their youngsters. Also, they would have had to shell out so much dough on top of losing the kids. So nah, I don’t look back with regret. Hell, the signing the Yanks never made that really came back to haunt them was not inking Carlos Beltran, who would have been ideal to replace Bernie Williams. Instead, they forked over big bucks for Tony Womack, Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano. That one still smarts.

Tampa Bay is in first, the Yankees are about to replace the Blue Jays in the cellar, and Carlos Quentin is leading the AL in homers. In other words, it’s mid-May of any given baseball season. Are there any realistic concerns from the Yankees fans’ perspective right now, or are most chalking it up to the traditional slow start?

Although the Yanks have been worse to begin the season in recent years, I think this team is in worse condition. They really feel like a team in transition, and although I’m sure they will recover some, they’ve got a bunch of guys getting old fast–Damon, Giambi, Mussina, even Matsui and Abreu to come extent. Course they are the most expensive transition team in history. LOL. They don’t have a lot of bats that scare you without Jorge and Alex Rodriguez in the line up do they? I don’t think they’ll make the post-season this year, and while I’m sure I’ll be pulling my hair out come September, the thought of it doesn’t bother me as much as it would have in years past. Also, the way the baseball fates work, it would just seem to make sense that in the final year of Yankee Stadium, the team’s October run would come to an end. It might not be fitting for us Yankee fans, or for the Yankees and MLB, but I think that’s the way it’s gunna turn out.

There’s still more to come … in the next part of our series, I offer Alex a trade: Willie Randolph for Joe Girardi. Get a cup of coffee and check back here in a bit to see if he takes the bait …

In part 2 of our Q & A with Alex Belth of Bronx Banter, Alex gives us his view of the impatient fans of the northeast.

Alex, not sure if you’ve heard, but this year Shea Stadium has an unprecedented amount of boo-birds. We kid around here in the “Metsosphere” that the people booing are actually converted Yankee fans … but tell me, would Yankee fans boo Johan Santana on Opening Day? Would they be riding Aaron Heilman as hard as the Sheasters are lately?

I’ve noticed that Met fans get impatient and testy sooner than Yankee fans when I’ve been at the ballpark because there is a sense of the other shoe dropping with the Mets. It is as if some Met fans are just waiting for something bad to happen so they cut it off at the pass by cursing their team at the drop of a hat. It’s a by-product of many losing seasons and a handful of heartbreakers thrown too. On the other hand, so many Yankee fans, particularly younger ones, feel entitled and will accept nothing less than total and complete victory. Let’s face it, Yankee fans are spoiled, by the team’s success throughout MLB history, and by therecent championship run. And that sense of entitlement has long been fostered by George Steinbrenner. It’s understandable but unfortunate, particularly because I think those late 90s Yankees, almost to a man, appreciated how hard it is to win and how improbable what they accomplished actually was.

Would Yankee fans be booing Heilman right now? You bet they would. Would they have booed Santana on Opening Day? It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. You’d think a guy would get a little slack but if Hughes pitched a shut out on Opening Day for the Twins (had he been traded), and Santana got rocked, sure he’d likely hear some boos in the Bronx. Then again, Met fans are understandably sore over what happened last year, nevermind the heartbreak of Yadir Molina the year before.
The bottom line is that both Met fans and Yankee fans are New Yorkers, so they do share a lot in common. I’m sure that statement will offend a lot of people who are convinced that there are very specific and clear differences between the two fan bases, just like Red Sox fans take offense when I’ve suggested that the Sox and Yanks have more in common than not. Throw Philly fans in there too. Yes, there are differences between the fan bases, but they are all from the northeast, are all self-absorbed, are all impatient and not shy about expressing their feelings.

In the next installment, Alex tells us whether he’d do the Johan Santana trade today, and why he believes the last season in Yankee Stadium could be unpleasant for Yankee fans …

For the “Subway Series” this weekend, I tapped fellow blogger Alex Belth of Bronx Banter to provide some perspective from “the other side”. As always, Alex provided LOTS of good stuff, so I’m breaking it up into several posts for you to read and comment on throughout the day.

Your stance on Joba Chamberlain’s emotional outbursts …

I don’t have any real problem with Chamberlain’s demonstrative nature, certainly not in the context of today’s game. Personally, I don’t really care for that kind of hotdogging, but it is the way things are in the Sports Center culture. You see guys spiking a football, doing a jig when their team is down by two touchdowns. In baseball, Manny Ramirez is only the most celebrated home plate poseur. At least he’s a great player. There are many lesser players who style it after they belt one (how many times has Soriano turned a triple into a double, a double into a single, admiring a long fly ball?). Pitchers like Joba give the ol’ fist pump and rebel yell after making a big out–dag, remember Uggie Urbina’s schtick? (Talk about where are they now, yikes!) And teams routinely celebrate a “walk off” win as if it were the 7th game of the World Series. Again, I’m not a fan of a lot of it. But that says more about me than it does about the way it is. Also, I’ve been horribly spoiled by Mariano Rivera, who is just one of the coolest killers you’re ever likely to see. I think much of the debate about Joba is overblown. He pitches in New York and has enjoyed an enormous amount of success and publicity in a very short time. So while I personally wince sometimes, I don’t think his celebrations are really out of line. Dag, remember Eck? That dude pointed at hitters. Now, that was tough to take. All that said, I was turned off by Chamberlain’s reaction to striking out Dave Dellucci last week. I think that was a selfish act on Joba’s part. It was all about Joba there, about gaining a measure of revenge after Dellucci had torched him for a game-winner a few days before. Heck, Dellucci is a solid major league hitter, but if Joba was a real bad ass he just would have struck him out and walked off the mound and not said boo. The sequence was impressive–four straight 97 mph fastballs on the outside corner and then a nasty slider to get him. In that instance, I think that Joba’s celebration detracted from his performance.

Hank Steinbrenner — is that really him making these nutty George-like quotes, or is it his dad losing his mind and speaking through him? Or has Hank watched “The Bronx Is Burning” too many times? If the Mets take two this weekend, will we hear from Hank on Monday?

I don’t mind Hank actually. Never thought I’d say this, having grown up in the 70s and 80s, but it was strange to see the Boss decline so quietly. I always found him to be an overbearing, obnoxious man, but then again, as a Yankee fan, I’d also grown accustomed to his bluster. So I like the continuity of Hank picking up where his old man left off. I figure he’ll continue to say plenty of cringe-worthy things before the year is out. But while he likes to shoot from the lip, he isn’t nearly the tryannt that his father was in his heyday. Maybe that’s why he’s more palatable. He’s just the bad cop to Hal’s good cop.

In the next installment, Alex gives us his thoughts on the “testy” Mets fans patrolling Shea lately … check back in a little while …

The Brewers come to town for a three game weekend series, and the Mets won’t see them again until September (makes you think they’re still in the American League).

Last year, the Brew Crew rode the bats of Prince Fielder and rookie Ryan Braun to an 83-79, second-place finish in the NL Central. Many believe the Brewers would have taken the division championship had ace pitcher Ben Sheets been healthy all year.

Aside from the exits of Johnny Estrada and Geoff Jenkins, the lineup looks fairly similar to the ‘07 version, but the bullpen underwent a massive restructuring. No doubt Shea Stadium will warmly welcome former Met Guillermo Mota if he makes an appearance this weekend.

To get a Milwaukee fan’s perspective of the Brewers this year, I posed a few questions to Jeff Sackmann of BrewCrewBall.

1. The Brewers spent most of their offseason overhauling the bullpen. How do you think they did?

I think they did a great job. Eric Gagne has been iffy at best so far, but hey, it’s a one-year deal. David Riske and Salomon Torres have looked to be worth the money, and Brian Shouse is a known quantity as a solid situational lefty. The biggest question mark appears to be Derrick Turnbow. I think just about every Brewers fan wants Turnbow to succeed again, but dude, he’s wearing us out.

2. Speaking of the ‘pen, I can’t have a Q&A without asking your opinion of Guillermo Mota, who wore out his welcome in New York. Do you see him as being a valuable contributor to the ‘08 Brewers?

We’ll see. I was skeptical back when the trade happened, because we were swapping guys who probably would’ve been released or salary-dumped. It seemed like a particularly bad deal to me when we lost Wise as basically a follow-up to that deal. (I like Wise, possibly a little irrationally.) Mota looked outstanding in his first outing this year, not so great in his last one. It looks like Ned Yost is giving him the opportunity to step up and become the main set-up guy, but at the same time, we don’t need him to be anything more than the #4 guy in the pen.

3. What do you think is the key to the Brew Crew taking the NL Central in 2008? What team in the division do you see as being the toughest for Milwaukee to outperform?

The Cubs are the threat, especially as long as Fukudome plays like the MVP. Call me an optimist, but the key is simply not imploding. This is a deep team, and we don’t need 32 starts from Ben Sheets or a miraculous rookie year from Manny Parra to make it happen. If Gagne falters, there’s Riske. We’ve got at least six decent starters. Of course, an injury to Fielder or Braun would be a disaster, but short of that sort of thing, I think it’s the Brewers’ division for the taking.

4. Manny Parra was impressive in his abbreviated debut in ‘07. Tell us about his repertoire and skillset.

He’s a strikeout pitcher with some occasional control problems. The big issue this year is his fragility. He spent a lot of time on the DL working his way up the ladder, and has never thrown more than about 140 innings in a season. It remains to be seen whether the Brewers will try to keep his IP total down this year, or if they figure he’s 25 and finally healthy, so he can cope. One interesting thing to watch tonight is that he is, at least somewhat, pitching for his job. Yovani Gallardo will be back soon, and either Parra, Villanueva, or Bush will be headed to the bullpen or the minors.

5. Who will be the biggest surprise on the ‘08 Brewers?

It won’t surprise Brewers fans, but Carlos Villanueva is the guy who will make fans outside of Milwaukee pay more attention. If he makes it through the year in the rotation, he should give us 30 starts in the 4.00 - 4.50 range. He’s never going to win a Cy Young Award, but three years ago, he wasn’t even really showing up on prospect lists.

6. What do the Brewers have to do to take this weekend’s series from the Mets?

Different challenge every day. Tonight, we’ll see how the ‘08 Crew does against a pitcher they haven’t seen before in Figueroa. Anecdotally, first-timers seemed to be a challenge for the Brewers in recent years. It’ll also be interesting to see how Parra fares against a Major League offense. Saturday, the pitcher’s duel, will be up to Ben Sheets, who has been stunning this year. It would be nice to see Prince Fielder get hot, but it’s a balanced offense, so on any given night, somebody is probably going to come through.

Thanks again to Jeff Sackmann of BrewCrewBall. Jeff is one of the more astute writers in the baseball blogosphere, and I regularly enjoy reading his posts even though I’m not a Brewers fan. He also created Minor League Splits, co-created College Splits, and writes for The Hardball Times and Beyond the Boxscore, among others. Oh and if you’re contemplating graduate school, be sure to pick up his books The GMAT Math Bible and The GRE Math Bible.