Told You So … and Didn’t

We’re a bit past one-quarter of the way through the season, so it’s time to review some of my wild and crazy Mets predictions of April 6th, 2009.

I’ve selected particular predictions that seem relevant at the moment, but you can see them all here.

Johan Santana will win 21 games, and take the Cy Young.
He certainly looks on that pace so far, no? In truth, he’s on pace to win 22. Woo hoo.

John Maine will struggle so mightily in the first half that he will be sent to the minors to work out issues with his mechanics and command.
So far, so wrong. I still think his mechanics are a disaster, but Maine is far from being sent to the minors. Maybe I meant Oliver Perez?

Livan Hernandez will be the tortoise and Oliver Perez the hare, and Livan will quietly emerge as the Mets #3 starter by year’s end, posting 13 victories.
This one certainly seems plausible. My calculator says he’s on track to win 14.6.

Maine and Perez will combine for less than 20 wins.
This one is very possible.

Darren O’Day and Sean Green will combine for 20 decisions in middle relief.
With O’Day saving games in Texas and Green banished to the doghouse, this one looks like an impossibility. The spirit of the prediction was that a couple of nondescript middle relievers would get more decisions than they should.

Mike Pelfrey will take a no-hitter into the 9th inning, but settle for a one-hit shutout.
There’s plenty of time for this one.

Tim Redding will throw less than 50 innings all season.
I hope I’m wrong.

Luis Castillo will receive consideration for the All-Star Game, and finish the year with a .295 AVG., .375 OBP, and 28 SB.
This one looked good at the end of April, right now, it’s iffy. He’s currently at .283 AVG/.372 OBP/6 SB

Danny Murphy will have trouble keeping his average above .250 in the first six weeks of the season, and Gary Sheffield will take over as the starting leftfielder.
Um … Murphy’s hitting .246 and Sheff’s the starting left fielder. I will admit to being two weeks off, though. Damn tea leaves.

Sheffield will be a key run producer for the Mets, and finish fourth on the team in RBI.
So far, so good. And he is currently fourth on the team in RBI, btw.

Very few “Putz” jerseys will be sold by the Mets, for obvious reasons.
Still rings true.

Not one “Shawn Green” jersey will be sold to a patron thinking it’s a “Sean Green” jersey.
I’m not sure ANY “Green” jerseys will be sold, period.

Ryan Church will be traded to the Rockies.
Time will tell. I’m starting to think the team may be the Diamondbacks though. Or maybe the A’s or Astros. Someone out west, in any case.

The Mets’ lack of a second LOOGY will be a major point of concern, and trade rumors will swirl around the names Eddie Guardado, Matt Thornton, and Alan Embree. The Mets will wind up with Bobby Seay, against whom lefties hit .303 lifetime.
How was I to know Ken Takahashi would be so dominating?

The Mets will have a strong record outside the division, but will be only a few games above .500 against NL East teams.
The Mets are 11-8 vs. the NL East, 13-12 vs. everyone else. It’s still early for this one to play out.

Jose Valentin will make it back to the 25-man roster before the end of the season.
Oh, Jose, if only you stuck it out in Buffalo, you’d be starting at shortstop right now.

Bobby Ojeda will start doing commercials for the Hair Club for Men.
Like many of these, there’s still time ….


Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
  1. mic May 27, 2009 at 11:13 am
    a few tweaks and you are at at least 90%

    1. Adam rubin has two great bullets on his surfin Mets blog i wanted to chatter on:

    – Ruben Tejada: Mets dont have to protect him until 2010 and if promoted he would have to stay on their 40man…flip side they can (and will) DFA Ramon and Wilson Valdez at the earliest oppurtunity.

    -Tatis started against a lefty and right at 1st base the last 2 days !!*$! So where is Murph…the future 1st basman? I have had my eye on Nick Johnson as a gg/300 hitter/25HR guy perfect for this team BUT Murph LOOKS like Nick J, a future gg/300hitter/25Hr guy.

    2. how long before Tim redding can be traded….is it 1 June or after the draft? ….when btw Ben sheets cn be signed w/o compensation.

    3. Church has to be marketable right now …well in June anyway…but does nt Ricky Nolasco for Church make sense too….

  2. Eli From Brooklyn May 27, 2009 at 1:20 pm
    lol… love this post…
  3. wlaadair May 27, 2009 at 1:34 pm
    I think most of these predictions are on cue for how the season plays out.

    Santana should win Cy Young, and as much as people love to blast the offense and defense on days he pitches, his teammates are doing their best and hopefully Santana realizes that and does not continue to throw anyone under the bus.

    Most “fans” seem to not realize that more errors are made caring too much, trying to be too perfect instead of not trying or caring.

  4. The Coop May 27, 2009 at 2:45 pm
    Whooa! “Trying to be perfect?” Yes that accounts for all those one-handed grabs (including one from Delgado that would have changed the game had it not been for a big hit from him in the previous inning…against the Braves)! Hee hee…

    Joe these are so funny. I pulled a lot of these out of my ass for Coop’s Crystal Ball. I have to go back. I think I said good stuff about Delgado. in truth, he’s been a curse since Day One.

  5. Murph May 28, 2009 at 1:25 am
    I am glad I have been wrong about my predictions for Sheffield & Castillo, so far.