Mets Halfway Point: Predictions
OK, it’s a little beyond the “halfway point” of the season, but MLB marks the midpoint by that farcical event produced by Bud Selig and his merry men. Now is as good a time as any to take another look at the wild predictions spewed by MetsToday on April 6th.
Here they are, in total, one by one:
The key to the Mets’ success this year will be tied to health and the production of Carlos Delgado.
There’s at least some argument here that I was on target. The Mets were 17-13 and in first place after the last game Delgado played. Since then, they’re 25-32 and have sunk to fourth.
Jose Reyes will hit 25 triples, 17 of which will come at home in Citi Field.
Um, I meant in 2010?
Johan Santana will win 21 games, and take the Cy Young.
This was looking good in early May. Johan does have 10 wins right now, which has him in a four-way tie for second place in the NL. If he fulfills his usual pattern of strong second halves, he could pull it off.
John Maine will struggle so mightily in the first half that he will be sent to the minors to work out issues with his mechanics and command.
Well …. he didn’t get sent down, but he did get sent to the disabled list. I stick by my belief that his problems — both his injuries and his control issues — are due to poor mechanics.
Livan Hernandez will be the tortoise and Oliver Perez the hare, and Livan will quietly emerge as the Mets #3 starter by year’s end, posting 13 victories.
Before his last two starts, Livan was making me look smart. He needs 8 wins in the second half to make me look the genius.
Maine and Perez will combine for less than 20 wins.
The current tally between them is 7.
Darren O’Day and Sean Green will combine for 20 decisions in middle relief.
How was I to know the Mets would flake out and waive O’Day? So far I’m 17 decisions short. Oh well. By the way, O’Day has a 1.93 ERA with a 0.93 ERA and 28 strikeouts through 28 innings in Texas, which is in the American League. You know, that league which is supposedly more difficult for pitchers.
Mike Pelfrey will take a no-hitter into the 9th inning, but settle for a one-hit shutout.
This could still happen.
Tim Redding will throw less than 50 innings all season.
Busted! Redding has already thrown 51. But how many more?
Luis Castillo will receive consideration for the All-Star Game, and finish the year with a .295 AVG., .375 OBP, and 28 SB.
OK, no one was talking about him for the ASG. But, he is currently hitting .285 with a .386 OBP and 11 SBs. Fingers crossed …
Danny Murphy will have trouble keeping his average above .250 in the first six weeks of the season, and Gary Sheffield will take over as the starting leftfielder.
As mentioned in late May, Murphy was at .246 in week 8, and Sheff had already taken over in left. Not much has changed since — Murphy’s at .248 and Sheff’s still in left.
Sheffield will be a key run producer for the Mets, and finish fourth on the team in RBI.
He’s currently third in RBI. So there.
Very few “Putz” jerseys will be sold by the Mets, for obvious reasons.
Count ‘em up. .. you can do it with one hand.
Not one “Shawn Green” jersey will be sold to a patron thinking it’s a “Sean Green” jersey.
Anyone want to argue this one?
Jeremy Reed will substitute for a disabled starter at some point in the season and go on a tear, making fans almost forget Endy Chavez.
Well, I was half-right. Sort of.
Reese Havens will rocket through the Mets’ minor league system, and be considered for a September call-up.
Havens is hitting .228 through his first 53 games. Not exactly “rocketing”, though there’s still plenty of time for this to play itself out. Maybe I confused Havens with Ike Davis.
Ryan Church will be traded to the Rockies.
I was half-right.
Aaron Heilman will struggle against the Mets, but will otherwise succeed in Chicago. He’ll get a few starts when Rich Harden goes down and prompt the Cubs to move Sean Marshall back to the bullpen.
He hasn’t yet faced the Mets, and hasn’t yet gotten a start. Heilman has, however, combined with Harden to stink at least once. Heilman needs to go to St. Louis and meet Dave Duncan to be Braden Looperized, I think.
The Mets’ lack of a second LOOGY will be a major point of concern, and trade rumors will swirl around the names Eddie Guardado, Matt Thornton, and Alan Embree. The Mets will wind up with Bobby Seay, against whom lefties hit .303 lifetime.
This one really isn’t all that far off … only the names are incorrect. Replace Seay with “Takahashi”, for example.
The Mets will have a strong record outside the division, but will be only a few games above .500 against NL East teams.
Oops … just the opposite, kinda. The Mets are 18-15 against the NL East (thank GOD for the Nationals!) but 24-30 vs. everyone else. Though, take away the Nats and the Mets are 11-13 in the division.
Jose Valentin will make it back to the 25-man roster before the end of the season.
Had that silly man reported to Buffalo this one might’ve rung true. Surely he’d have been a better option than Ramon Martinez or Wilson Valdez.
Bobby Ojeda will start doing commercials for the Hair Club for Men.
There’s still time!
Told You So … and Didn’t
We’re a bit past one-quarter of the way through the season, so it’s time to review some of my wild and crazy Mets predictions of April 6th, 2009.
I’ve selected particular predictions that seem relevant at the moment, but you can see them all here.
Johan Santana will win 21 games, and take the Cy Young.
He certainly looks on that pace so far, no? In truth, he’s on pace to win 22. Woo hoo.
John Maine will struggle so mightily in the first half that he will be sent to the minors to work out issues with his mechanics and command.
So far, so wrong. I still think his mechanics are a disaster, but Maine is far from being sent to the minors. Maybe I meant Oliver Perez?
Livan Hernandez will be the tortoise and Oliver Perez the hare, and Livan will quietly emerge as the Mets #3 starter by year’s end, posting 13 victories.
This one certainly seems plausible. My calculator says he’s on track to win 14.6.
Maine and Perez will combine for less than 20 wins.
This one is very possible.
Darren O’Day and Sean Green will combine for 20 decisions in middle relief.
With O’Day saving games in Texas and Green banished to the doghouse, this one looks like an impossibility. The spirit of the prediction was that a couple of nondescript middle relievers would get more decisions than they should.
Mike Pelfrey will take a no-hitter into the 9th inning, but settle for a one-hit shutout.
There’s plenty of time for this one.
Tim Redding will throw less than 50 innings all season.
I hope I’m wrong.
Luis Castillo will receive consideration for the All-Star Game, and finish the year with a .295 AVG., .375 OBP, and 28 SB.
This one looked good at the end of April, right now, it’s iffy. He’s currently at .283 AVG/.372 OBP/6 SB
Danny Murphy will have trouble keeping his average above .250 in the first six weeks of the season, and Gary Sheffield will take over as the starting leftfielder.
Um … Murphy’s hitting .246 and Sheff’s the starting left fielder. I will admit to being two weeks off, though. Damn tea leaves.
Sheffield will be a key run producer for the Mets, and finish fourth on the team in RBI.
So far, so good. And he is currently fourth on the team in RBI, btw.
Very few “Putz” jerseys will be sold by the Mets, for obvious reasons.
Still rings true.
Not one “Shawn Green” jersey will be sold to a patron thinking it’s a “Sean Green” jersey.
I’m not sure ANY “Green” jerseys will be sold, period.
Ryan Church will be traded to the Rockies.
Time will tell. I’m starting to think the team may be the Diamondbacks though. Or maybe the A’s or Astros. Someone out west, in any case.
The Mets’ lack of a second LOOGY will be a major point of concern, and trade rumors will swirl around the names Eddie Guardado, Matt Thornton, and Alan Embree. The Mets will wind up with Bobby Seay, against whom lefties hit .303 lifetime.
How was I to know Ken Takahashi would be so dominating?
The Mets will have a strong record outside the division, but will be only a few games above .500 against NL East teams.
The Mets are 11-8 vs. the NL East, 13-12 vs. everyone else. It’s still early for this one to play out.
Jose Valentin will make it back to the 25-man roster before the end of the season.
Oh, Jose, if only you stuck it out in Buffalo, you’d be starting at shortstop right now.
Bobby Ojeda will start doing commercials for the Hair Club for Men.
Like many of these, there’s still time ….
Prediction: Dan Warthen Will Be the First to Go
The Mets are 8-10. They’re in fourth place, but only 3 games behind the struggling first-place Marlins.
This week, the Mets take on the Marlins and the Phillies. A strong showing can put them back into first place. But if they struggle, the Mets could end the week 5 or 6 games back. If that happens, heads could start rolling.
The Unusual Suspects
Who gets fired? Let’s first look at who will NOT be fired:
- Jeff Wilpon will not be fired. He’s the boss’s kid, after all.
- Omar Minaya will not be fired. Jeff Wilpon has too much invested in Omar to cut him loose.
- Jerry Manuel will not be fired this early. At worst, Jerry will get the Willie Randolph treatment – he’ll dangle for a few more weeks while ownership insists he is their guy. Then they’ll cut him loose, but only if the Mets continue to scuffle at or below the .500 mark.
- Howard Johnson is a likely candidate for firing. The Mets have been miserable with RISP. However, the team batting average is .283 and they have five regulars hitting over .300. Besides, the Mets may be reluctant to fire a coach with such strong ties to the team’s past – especially with recent fan reactions to the Wilpon’s lack of respect for the organization’s history.
Dan’s the Man
That leaves pitching coach Dan Warthen. Warthen replaced Rick Petersen last season and his old-school approach to pitching has been praised by ownership, fans and the media. Keep in mind, though, that Petersen was generally considered to be a pitching guru by ownership, fans and the media – until he was fired. The point is, Dan Warthen is not untouchable.
Pitching is the Problem
We’re all well aware of the Mets pitching problems. Johan Santana has been dominant, but the other four starters have been inconsistent at best and downright awful at times. Santana is 3-1 with a 0.70 ERA, while Pelfrey, Perez, Maine, Hernandez and Nelson Figueroa are 3-5 with a 7.32 ERA.
What are the Options?
When a team is struggling, the easiest move is to do nothing. The second easiest move is to fire a pitching or a hitting coach – the GM and manager save their jobs and no players are traded. At best, the move could shake things up enough to ignite a team. At worst, nothing really changes. It’s a fairly clean process and there is only one victim. Just ask Bob Apodaca or Rick Down.
Target: Warthen
So how does an organization go about firing a pitching coach? If you’re the Mets, you lay the seeds early. From today’s NY Times Blog:
“The Mets are high on Buffalo’s pitching coach, Ricky Bones. Should they decide to demote Perez, it would be interesting to see whether Bones could correct Perez’s flaws while also easing his psyche. No one enjoys being sent to the minors, especially those who have had success at the major-league level. Myers was humbled by the demotion. The Mets hope Perez would be, too. But that happens — the Mets’ worst-case scenario — Perez will get one more start to prove he belongs in the big leagues.”
Geez, Ricky Bones may be a great pitching coach, but this reeks of a leak from somewhere within the Mets front office.
To recap, here’s what the Mets have done:
- Announce an isolated problem (Perez)
- Create a worst-cast scenario (Perez gets sent to the minors)
- Create a potential savior (Ricky Bones)
The Worst Case Scenario
If Perez gets sent down, you can assume the Mets will still be struggling. Fans will be calling WFAN and demanding that SOMETHING be done.
Let’s say Perez has a few dazzling starts in AAA. It’s not hard to imagine that Perez could fan 15 batters in AAA – he really only has to stay in the strike zone and he should dominate down there. When that happens, word will start to circulate that Perez is back on track. Ricky Bones’ name will be mentioned in the papers, on SNY and on WFAN.
The Endgame
Oliver Perez will return from AAA with Ricky Bones. Dan Warthen will be out. And ownership can say they gave the fans what they asked for.
Of course, Warthen’s job is safe if the Mets go on a winning streak. But it’s nice to know the front office is ready to make him a scapegoat, just in case.
Wild Mets Predictions
The National League predictions have been posted, so now it’s time for New York Mets – specific prophecies. You may like some of them, you’ll likely hate a few of them, and nearly all of them are unlikely to occur. But what the heck, let’s go …
The key to the Mets’ success this year will be tied to health and the production of Carlos Delgado.
Jose Reyes will hit 25 triples, 17 of which will come at home in Citi Field.
Johan Santana will win 21 games, and take the Cy Young.
John Maine will struggle so mightily in the first half that he will be sent to the minors to work out issues with his mechanics and command.
Livan Hernandez will be the tortoise and Oliver Perez the hare, and Livan will quietly emerge as the Mets #3 starter by year’s end, posting 13 victories.
Maine and Perez will combine for less than 20 wins.
Darren O’Day and Sean Green will combine for 20 decisions in middle relief.
Mike Pelfrey will take a no-hitter into the 9th inning, but settle for a one-hit shutout.
Tim Redding will throw less than 50 innings all season.
Luis Castillo will receive consideration for the All-Star Game, and finish the year with a .295 AVG., .375 OBP, and 28 SB.
Danny Murphy will have trouble keeping his average above .250 in the first six weeks of the season, and Gary Sheffield will take over as the starting leftfielder.
Sheffield will be a key run producer for the Mets, and finish fourth on the team in RBI.
Very few “Putz” jerseys will be sold by the Mets, for obvious reasons.
Not one “Shawn Green” jersey will be sold to a patron thinking it’s a “Sean Green” jersey.
Jeremy Reed will substitute for a disabled starter at some point in the season and go on a tear, making fans almost forget Endy Chavez.
Reese Havens will rocket through the Mets’ minor league system, and be considered for a September call-up.
Ryan Church will be traded to the Rockies.
Aaron Heilman will struggle against the Mets, but will otherwise succeed in Chicago. He’ll get a few starts when Rich Harden goes down and prompt the Cubs to move Sean Marshall back to the bullpen.
The Mets’ lack of a second LOOGY will be a major point of concern, and trade rumors will swirl around the names Eddie Guardado, Matt Thornton, and Alan Embree. The Mets will wind up with Bobby Seay, against whom lefties hit .303 lifetime.
The Mets will have a strong record aoutside the division, but will be only a few games above .500 against NL East teams.
Jose Valentin will make it back to the 25-man roster before the end of the season.
Bobby Ojeda will start doing commercials for the Hair Club for Men.
National League Predictions
Everyone else is making predictions, so why not MetsToday? We’ll focus on the National League, since that remains the only professional league still playing baseball, and not some twisted variation of the sport.
Cy Young Award
Obvious Candidates: Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, , Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Carlos Zambrano.
Sleepers: Edinson Volquez, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Cook, Ricky Nolasco.
Prediction: Santana
If Santana remains healthy, he should pitch through the 7th inning at least 25 times this year. If his one-two finishing punch of J.J. Putz and Frankie Rodriguez also remains healthy, Johan could win 20 of those 25, if not more.
Should any of those three suffer a significant injury, my money is on Volquez.
MVP
Obvious candidates: Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Beltran, David Wright.
Sleepers: Hanley Ramirez, Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Nate McLouth.
Prediction: This one’s too hard, you can’t really choose an MVP without knowing what teams are in the playoffs. I’m going to go on a limb and give it to Votto, who is poised for a breakout year.
Rookie of the Year
Candidates: Jason Motte, Colby Rasmus, Jordan Schafer, Jordan Zimmerman
Prediction: My research on the rookies is awful. I’m going to go with Motte, who could save 25+ games for the Cardinals. After Motte I like Schafer, who is slated to start in centerfield for the Braves.
Batting Title
Another tough one. I don’t see Chipper Jones hitting .364 again, though I wouldn’t be stunned to see Pujols hit .350 again. In fact, with Matt Holliday out of the league, this might be Pujols’ best chance for a triple crown. Someone’s going to come out of nowhere and surprise us all, and I say it’s going to be James Loney.
Saves Leader
Can Francisco Rodriguez save 60 games again? Doubtful — he may not get that many opportunities in the competitive NL East. I’m betting on a neck-and-neck race between Jose Valverde and the “other” Francisco – Cordero, of Cincinnati.
NL West Champion: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dodgers still have Manny, but they don’t have Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, nor Takashi Saito. After Chad Billingsley, the pitching staff looks questionable — even Jonathan Broxton looks like he might take a step back. I like the pitching of the Giants and the Diamondbacks, and think Arizona will have a little more offense and the better bullpen.
NL Central Champion: Chicago Cubs
On paper, the Cubs look to be the class of the NL, with great pitching depth and plenty of offense. However, they won’t run away with the division. I’m betting that the Reds have a surprising season, and that the Pirates climb out of the basement, while Houston and Milwaukee fight for last place.
NL East Champion: ?
This one’s too close to home. If I choose the Mets, I’m supposed to because this is a Mets blog. If I don’t choose the Mets, you wonder how I can’t since this is a Mets blog. So I’ll say this: the NL East is going to once again be a dogfight, and go down to the last weeks of the season. Further, neither the Marlins nor the Nationals will be pushovers in ‘09, and the Braves won’t be left behind when it gets down to the wire. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if four games or less separates the Phillies, Mets, Braves, and Marlins when it’s all said and done. The Wild Card also will come from the East.
Agree or disagree with anything? Comment away!
2009 Fantasy Projections: Third Base
Third base is the first position in the infield where the Mets clearly have the best player in the National League (for fantasy baseball purposes). I have nothing remotely witty to add to that, so let’s get to the rankings…
Third Base Rankings – National League
- David Wright (.315-35-140) – With Reyes stealing more bases this season, Wright will put up a career high in RBI. And if not, he’s still going to be the top producing 3B in the NL.
- Chipper Jones (.320-25-100) - If he is healthy all season, Jones will challenge Wright’s numbers, but I expect him to miss 20-40 games. Get him at a good value if you can – I’ve seen him drop in alot of drafts. If you get him, be sure to get a solid backup who can fill in when Jones punches out.
- Aramis Ramirez (.290-30-100) – This guy is nothing if not consistent. He is also severely overvalued and undervalued depending on the league and the draft. Target him at $20 and grab him lower if you can.
- Garrett Atkins (.280-20-100) - Declining numbers over the past three years are a red flag. A .260 road average last season is another red flag. A possible trade to free up the 3B position for Ian Stewart is another possible red flag… Let Atkins pass.
- Ryan Zimmerman (.290-20-90) - It’s hard to predict where Zimmerman’s numbers will go. He’s been hurt and hitting in the black hole that is the Nationals lineup. I expect the Nats to be slightly better offensively and if Zimmerman is healthy, he should get back on track. I rate him only slightly lower than Atkins because there he has less of a track record. But he is also only 24 years old, so keep that in mind if you’re in a keeper league.
Sleeper – Edwin Encarnacion (.260-30-100) – I like the Cincinnati lineup and Encarnacion has a ton of potential. He may never realize his full potential, but he should approach 30 HR and have a modest gain in BA. Grab him under $12 if you can.
Third Base Rankings – National League NL EAST
- David Wright – see above
- Chipper Jones – see above
- Ryan Zimmerman – see above
- Jorge Cantu – (.275-25-90) The Marlins have already sent down 1B Gaby Sanchez, which frees up 1B for Cantu (like I predicted here). Although he’s going to be playing 1B, Cantu also ranks as one of the top 3B candidates in the NL East, for fantasy purposes. Don’t expect an improvement on last year’s fantasy numbers, but grab him cheap and use his multi-position eligibility to your advantage.
- Pedro Feliz (.250-17-65) Feliz was a disappointment last season and it looks like he will remain in a quasi-platoon with Greg Dobbs this season. The one thing Feliz has going for him – besides his power – is his glove. If he gets enough ABs, he could reach 20 HR, but Feliz is a crapshoot unless he gets catcher eligibility. I don’t believe that has happened for a couple of years…
Sleeper Emilio Bonafacio (.230-0-35) - For reasons I don’t quite understand, Bonafacio is slated to be the Marlins third baseman on Opening Day. He probably won’t hit and he may not start for long, but Bonafacio can run. I’ve seen him nearly beat out routine grounders to shortstop… I have to assume he has the green light whenever he’s on base and I also have to assume that he’s going to run whenever he can just to stay in the lineup. I’ll go out on a limb and say Bonafacio steals 40-50 bases this season, regardless of playing time. The important thing is that he stays on the big league roster – and that’s not guaranteed.
2009 Fantasy Projections: Shortstop
“Shortstop” is the name of a greasy spoon diner right under the last stop of 1/9 train in Riverdale – whatever you order, keep it greasy and order seconds. Cheese fries are highly recommended, if I remember correctly.
“Shortstop” is also where the NL East is dominating the positional rankings in fantasy baseball:
Shortstop Rankings – National League
- Hanley Ramirez (.300-30-110) – Ramirez moves down to the third spot in the lineup this year, so expect more RBIs and a small drop in his SB – I’m thinking he steals 20-25. There’s a reason he is rated #1 by most fantasy baseball magazines and websites.
- Jose Reyes (.300-18-70) – Reyes will put up his usual numbers – Solid average, power and RBI numbers for a guy that will steal a ton of bases. And I do expect him to steal a TON of bases when the Mets start to hit a rough patch early in the season. Forget what you’ve heard about Jerry Manuel’s “jazz beat” – Reyes will run until his legs fall off this season or the Mets will fall apart. Thank God he isn’t batting third…
- Jimmy Rollins (.280-15-65) – Rollins is an excellent barometer with which to gauge the collective temperment of your draft/auction. He puts up power numbers comparable to Reyes and he should steal about 15 more bases than Ramirez, yet he isn’t quite up to their overall levels of production… If you are in an auction league, you may get him for less than $35 if Reyes/Ramirez are still on the table. But watch out, once the big guys are gone, the price for Rollins could skyrocket close to $40. Don’t overpay, but get him closer to $30 if you can.
- JJ Hardy (.275-20-85) – I’m starting to think people overvalue Hardy because they are lumping him in with Ryan Braun and Corey Hart – how many people at your draft have actually seen a Brewers game? Could they tell the difference between Hart, Hardy and Braun? Hardy will post decent numbers, but he isn’t a top tier talent at SS and he is wildly streaky. Get him cheap if you can, but don’t bid on him if he approaches $20. There are plenty of solid AL shortstops that come cheaper and there are better values in the NL.
- Stephen Drew (.208-18-65) – Get him if he’s cheap, avoid him if he’s too expensive. Rinse. Repeat.
Sleeper – Rafael Furcal (.280-10-50) – If Furcal plays a full season and he is completely healthy, he is almost as productive as Jose Reyes. Don’t expect him to be healthy all season, but watch him post .300-15-65 with 50 SB and 110 runs scored if he is.
Shortstop Rankings – NL East
- Hanley Ramirez (see above)
- Jose Reyes (see above)
- Jimmy Rollins (see above)
- Yunel Escobar (.290-12-65) – You can’t build a fantasy team around Escobar, but you can definitely get him at a fair price and spend your money (or your higher draft picks) on top talent at other positions. If you’re lucky, he may swipe 10 bases.
- Cristian Guzman (.285-8-50) – Proceed with caution. This guy is on the Nationals for a reason – he’s just not that productive. Don’t expect him to post another .300-season and don’t expect many SB. He’ll bug the hell out of you with a two-out bloop single late in a tie game against the Mets, but being a gadfly doesn’t translate to fantasy value. Spend no more than $3 on him in an auction and don’t bother with him in shallow mixed leagues.
Sleeper – No one. If Ramirez, Reyes or Rollins get injured, their replacements won’t make a noticeable impact unless they are acquired by via trade.
2009 Fantasy Projections: Second Base
When last we met, I was telling you that Albert Pujols was the best NL first baseman and you weren’t surprised. But you were probably surprised that I think two of the top 5 first basemen in the NL East aren’t even first basemen. Moving along…
Second Base Rankings – National League
- Chase Utley .345-20-95 – It’s a given that Utley’s off-season hip surgery will cut down his SB totals. But if Utley is healthy – and he appears to be – the only other side effect of his surgery MIGHT be that he shortens up his stroke and uses his hands more (think Wade Boggs). I can’t see that leading to anything but an inverse relationship between BA and HR. In other words, I expect a higher BA and lower HR totals, or no change at all. So if he plays all season, you’re safe.
- Brandon Phillips .275-25-80 – Solid pop, solid speed, nice ballpark for a power hitter and I like the Reds to surprise people this year with a wildcard run.
- Dan Uggla .260-28-95 – My favorite player on this list. He helped me win a 5×5 mixed league last year and he is tough as nails. He will be overvalued this year, so don’t get sucked in… But don’t expect his BA to drop back into the .230-zone. This guy is a capable, albeit flawed, hitter. If you need the HR/RBI, you’ll get it from Uggla.
- Kelly Johnson .290-15-75 – I’m not sure what the ceiling will be on Johnson’s offensive output, but his BA has increased each of the past three years and he has decent pop in his bat. That’s enough for #4.
- Kazuo Matsui .285-5-35 – You may not know it, but the Astros were eliminated from the NL Central Race AND the NL Wildcard yesterday. Seriously. Look for Kaz to notch 30+ SB and a decent BA with absolutely no pressure on him.
Sleepers (Tie) - I like Felipe Lopez (.275-10-65) and Ian Stewart (.275-15-75). Lopez should be running more this season – possibly enough for 25 SB. Stewart has multi-position eligibility and he should see significant time between 1B, 2B and 3B with Colorado’s lineup struggling through nagging injuries already.
Second Base Rankings – NL East
Three of the top five second basemen in the NL are also in the NL East. It makes you wonder who is manning 2B out in the NL West. Is Robbie Thompson still playing?
- Chase Utley – see above
- Dan Uggla – see above
- Kelly Johnson – see above
- Luis Castillo .285-3-35 – He’s not as bad as last year’s numbers but he’s still not as good as Omar needs him to be. His average won’t hurt you, but his power numbers will do nothing for you. If he is healthy enough to steal 20 bases and score 100 runs, he’s worth a few bucks in NL-only leagues.
- Anderson Hernandez (Yikes-Zero-Not Much) – Hernandez batted .194 in AAA last season. Look for Ronnie Belliard to take over shortly…
Sleeper - Ronnie Belliard (.270-12-70) – He’s getting older and he’s never been much of an offensive threat, but he’s on the Nationals and playing behind Anderson Hernandez. I feel confident enough to say he will get at least 400 AB. Grab him cheap in NL-only leagues, if you can.
2009 Fantasy Projections – First Base
Kingman was doing dual position eligibility before it was fashionable
My name is John and I regret nothing… Except for that last burrito.
When last we met, I was telling you that Ramon Castro was worth a buck and Ronny Paulino might be working in a car wash by mid-August. Only time will tell…
First Base Rankings
If you’re not getting Pujols, try to grab Gonzalez on the cheap. I think you’ll be overpaying for Howard, Berkman and Fielder, in most cases. Let me explain…
Albert Pujols (.320-35-120) – One of the few positions where there is no doubt about who is the best offensive player.
Ryan Howard (.250-40-120) – His BA leaves alot to be desired, but I think it may be higher. You can’t argue with his HR/RBI totals.
Adrian Gonzalez (.300-30-100) – The most underrated of this bunch. His HR/RBI totals have increased each of the past 3 seasons and he has hit around .279 or above in each of those years. If he brings his Petco numbers up (only .269 last season), he could challenge Howard for the #2 spot.
Lance Berkman (.310-25-95) – I’ve been waiting for Berkman to fall off for a couple of years – his HR totals have fallen three consecutive years but he’s still a solid pick. Houston’s lineup could hold down his RBI totals
Prince Fielder (.275-28-100) – People are still drafting Fielder with hopes that he will return to the 50 HR slugger he was in 2007. I think those numbers will prove to be a statistical outlier. You can count on Fielder for something in the .280-30-100 ballpark for years to come. In future drafts, he may be a steal at those numbers, but not this season.
Sleeper – James Loney (.310-18-100) – I absolutely love watching Loney hit. I’m not sure if he’ll ever be more than a 20HR guy, but he drives the ball well into the gaps and he is only 24. The Dodgers lineup could provide plenty of RBI opportunities, depending on Manny’s willingness to play and Torre’s willingness to put Loney into the #5 hole. If it all comes together for him, this could be his breakout season.
NL East
A much better crop of players than we saw in the NL East catcher rankings… However, two of my top five guys will start the season at different positions.
Ryan Howard (.250-40-120) – See above
Adam Dunn (.240-40-100) – I expect him to gain 1B eligibility in most leagues at some point. If you need another 1B to cover for him, take a shot on a guy like James Loney or even Nick Johnson.
Carlos Delgado (.260-30-100) – People were calling for Delgado to be cut in May 2008. By the end of the year, he was on fire. He’s still got some pop, but he’s old and he has lost batspeed. He could end up outperforming Ryan Howard or falling out of the top 5 in the NL East… I think his HR/RBI numbers will be fine, somewhere between ‘07 and ‘08. Get him if he falls on draft day.
Jorge Cantu (.275-25-90) – Another guy who should wind up playing 1B before too long. I’m not sold on him repeating last season’s numbers – and those numbers don’t make him a good choice at 1B, but if you get him late he could end up being a nice reserve player with dual position eligibility.
Sleeper: Nick Johnson (.280-10-65) – If Johnson stays healthy (unlikely), he could have a nice season, but he’s hardly worth considering in anything other than a deep NL-only league. He plays the game the right way and that should count for something, but it doesn’t. Oh well.
2009 Fantasy Projections – Catcher
Hi. My name is John. I enjoy eating pizza and yelling at parked cars.
Joe asked me to step in here and write something, so here goes… I’m going to rank the top 5 players at each position in the NL and the top 5 in the NL East. These offensive rankings are both for the season and for fantasy baseball – because that’s just how I roll.
Today’s position is catcher. Here goes:
National League Catchers
Catchers… Always a crapshoot and usually a big disappointment if you draft them too high. My strategy is to draft Gary Carter and live in a nostalgic fantasy world while everyone else’s catchers are on the DL or batting .220 due to sprained fingers and bad knees. When in doubt, think about ‘86. Bring on the rankings:
- Brian McCann (.295-22-95) – If he stays healthy, the numbers could be even better.
- Russell Martin (.290-15-75) – Solid hitter without much power. If Torre doesn’t run him, his overall value could drop significantly in mixed leagues, but he has been durable and should drop no lower than the #2 catcher in the NL.
- Ryan Doumit (.310-18-75) – This guy can flat out hit but he’s an injury risk.
- Chris Iannetta (.260-20-85) – A decent prospect who finally came through last season. He should continue to improve and you can’t really go wrong with a catcher who calls Coors Field home.
- Ivan Rodriguez (.275-14-60) – I don’t believe in Geovany Soto (yet) and I’m willing to bet Pudge has enough in the gas tank for one more decent season. It looks like he may be hitting second, which could improve SB totals (he had 10 last year). Steroids or not, the guy knows how to play the game and he could be one of a few bright spots in Houston this season, until he is traded.
Sleeper: Keep an eye on Pablo Sandoval. He has an undisciplined approach at the plate, but he should get ABs and he should have or attain 1B/3B/C eligibility in most fantasy leagues.
National League East Catchers
After Brian McCann, things fall off sharply. If you take any other NL East catchers in your fantasy draft, you should probably just forget about your team, because you’re in serious trouble. There’s always fantasy NASCAR…
- Brian McCann (.295-22-95) – If he stays healthy, the numbers could be even better.
- John Baker (.250-12-65) – I like Baker’s approach at the plate and he may benefit from hitting in a decent lineup (if Florida’s lineup doesn’t regress). Get him cheap and hope for the best.
- Jesus Flores (.240-12-65) – Flores may be overrated because his name isn’t Paul LoDuca. I like him if he comes cheap.
- Ramon Castro (.250-7-35) – I can’t put Brian Schneider on this list. I just can’t. At least Castro has some upside – I could see him posting line of a .260-10-60 if he gets the chance to play everyday for extended time. If you’re in a deep NL-only league, Castro for $1 might pay dividends. Or not. Hey, it’s only a buck.
- Carlos Ruiz (.240-6-40) – Eh. I think Ruiz loses his job by mid-season, if Ronny Paulino shows up to play. If not, the Phillies could trade for a competent catcher (Ivan Rodriguez?).
Sleeper: Keep an eye on Ronny Paulino. He could be out of baseball and working in a car wash by mid-August, but he could also be hitting .270-8-55 by then too.
UPDATE: 3/26/09 - I have updated Ramon Castro’s projection. Thanks to Isuzudude for pointing out my projection was incorrect based on probable playing time.
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