Rolling the Dice
Pitchers and catchers have reported, spring training has begun, yet there are still several free agents still out there looking for a job. Further, there are still some holes and question marks on the Mets’ roster. How about rolling the dice on a few of the available options — especially since they can be brought in for little risk and at fairly low prices?
The Mets have already missed out on two of the most remarkable values of the offseason — Bobby Abreu at $5M for one year and Orlando Hudson at $3M (plus incentives) for one year. Both players publicly stated their desire to play in New York City, so it wasn’t an issue of the Mets having to do much convincing. And the idea that Hudson might have caused tension on the team because Castillo was still around is absolute insanity. How can a team that collapsed two years in a row be worried about retaining its personality? If anything, the Mets should have been hell bent on stirring up the comfort in the clubhouse.
Anyway, the point is, there are still a few undervalued gems waiting to be picked up, for a beggar’s purse. Let’s take a look at a few in particular, who are worth a roll of the dice.
Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez
Pudge has been telling people he wants to play for the Mets since last October. He’s going to come at a significant discount — probably less than $1M — and he might even be open to taking a minor league deal. How often do you find players who WANT to play in New York, and not because of money? The Mets are desperate for a solid, veteran righthanded hitter for the bench, and Pudge would be an ideal platoon partner with Brian Schneider — not to mention the winning background, leadership qualities, and strong clubhouse presence he brings to the equation.
Yes, the Mets already have Ramon Castro, but Castro has had trouble staying healthy his entire career — and it’s hard to believe that factor will change at age 33. The other argument is that Castro is a friend of everyone on the team, and keeps things loose in the clubhouse. Well guess what? Him keeping things looser and being such a strong personality has not helped this team get to the postseason the last two years.
For those who don’t like Pudge because he has a perpetually low OBP, hit poorly in his one month as a Yankee, and isn’t the same player he was 4-5 years ago, I agree. However, I also believe that Ivan Rodriguez in the twilight of his career is still at least twice as good — overall — as any combination of Robinson Cancel, Rene Rivera, and whatever other independent league backstop the Mets can scrape up when Castro goes to the DL multiple times during the season.
Ray Durham
I thought for sure the Mets would be all over Durham, especially since he played four seasons under Jerry Manuel. But then, maybe he and Uncle Jerry don’t get along? (Yes, Virginia, Jerry Manuel had major problems with his players in Chicago … oh, you weren’t aware? Anyway, that’s for another day.) Durham hits from both sides, can play 2B and the outfield equally adequately, has some punch, can still run the bases, and is an on-base machine. He’s currently contemplating retirement because no one is interested in his services, but if a potential contender such as the Mets made an inquiry, he might just consider a minor league deal. The shame is that the Mets were so quick to lock up Alex Cora on that ridiculous, guaranteed, $2M contract, and now are committed to handing him the backup infield job.
(Wow … think about that … the Mets signed Alex Cora for one million less than the Dodgers are paying Orlando Hudson. Who would you rather have? Alex Cora and Livan Hernandez or Orlando Hudson? Tough pill to swallow. Anyway, I digress …)
Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, Ricardo Rincon
All four of these LOOGYs are still available. I like Rincon, Beimel, and Ohman in that order, and even though Reyes scares me, at this point he should be a relative bargain. So what the hey? The Mets can’t possibly think that Casey Fossum or Valerio De Los Santos can be trusted against the likes of Utley – Howard – Ibanez.
Mark Mulder
Mulder may never, ever return to being a solid starting pitcher. But what’s to say he can’t evolve into a LOOGY? No one is offering Mulder a contract of any sort, so he might be willing to take an incentive-laden minor-league deal as he continues his comeback. At 31 years old, he still has time to make it back.
Jay Payton
I can’t believe I’m suggesting the Mets sign Jay Payton, but let’s think about this objectively. The Mets could really use a solid, veteran, righthanded hitter who can play strong defense in the outfield and hit with occasional pop. Check, check, check. Give the guy a minor league deal and a chance to win a spot on the bench.
Chuck James
James was absolutely horrid in 2008, posting a 9.10 ERA before discovering he had a rotator cuff tear. Most likely, he won’t be able to contribute at the big league level in 2009. But hey, he’s a lefty, he’s only 27, and he wasn’t a power pitcher so the shoulder issue may not adversely affect his performance. Sign him to a cheap minor league deal, stash him in A ball, and look for him to help out late in the season or to compete for a job in 2010. The kid knew how to pitch before the surgery, so who knows — he might be another Jamie Moyer.
Nomar Garciaparra
Yes, he’s only a shell of what he once was, and he’s injury prone. However, his injuries are due to a medical condition that is pronounced by playing every day. With the Mets, he’d be a part-time player, filling in at several positions and being the first RH bat off the bench. The guy knows how to play the game, plays it hard, knows how to win, has performed under pressure, and can hit in his sleep. Watch him sign with the Phillies instead and get big hits to break the Mets’ back late in the season.
Ben Sheets
Take a page from the Jon Lieber chapter of Yankees history and sign Sheets to a two-year deal. Pay the man to rehab in 2009, and have one of the top righthanded pitchers in the NL East competing for a spot in 2010. What do you have to lose?
Did I miss anyone? Post your comments below.
Orlando Hudson
The price has now dropped to under $5M and only one year. You’re telling me that the Mets won’t bite, because they don’t want to sit Luis Castillo’s $18M on the bench? Surely you jest … if the Mets had been able to dump Castillo in, say, October, they might have considered Hudson’s 5-year, $50M demands. At
Nickel and Diming to Mediocrity
Despite many marches, the Mets’ obvious need for a slugging, righthanded-hitting leftfielder, and the availability of the best righthanded hitter in all of MLB, it’s quite clear that Manny Ramirez will not be reporting to Port St. Lucie in the next week, nor anytime this spring.
That fact has been accepted; we understand that the financial risk involved in carrying a $25M+ leftfielder for a year or two, in this unstable economy, is too much for the Wilpons to handle So, we as fans have stepped down our expectations, hoping that perhaps the Mets would look to someone like Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu — either of whom would accept a one-year deal in the neighborhood of $6-8M. This relatively paltry sum would be a drop in the bucket even for a Madoff-affected organization, and is a bargain for the services rendered by either of these productive on-base machines.
However, it has come to our attention that the Mets can’t even afford that to rectify their clusterflock of a leftfield situation. According to The Daily News:
A Mets official did not rule out signing free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu, but indicated that any contract likely would have to be for one year at less than $4 million.
OK. There’s hardball negotiating, and then there are offers so obnoxiously low that they don’t deserve the courtesy of a response. This has happened once this winter with the Mets and a certain righthanded pitcher now dressing in an Atlanta Braves uniform. Here again, we run into a Mets team crying poverty, hat in hand, hoping against hope that a quality, impact-type MLB veteran will take less than half his asking price.
There was a time, earlier this offseason, that I would have ridiculed the Mets for considering Bobby Abreu. That time seems decades ago. Had I known the Mets would spend so recklessly on futility players, and be so complacent regarding all but one of the top free agents, and so “comfortable” with the same team that choked two years in a row, my feelings would have been different. The Mets may well have dire financial issues right now, and if that’s the case, it’s their own fault. Before anyone cries about the economy or a Ponzi scheme, they better take a look at all the “cookie” money doled out to insignificant contributors.
People say I made too much of the Alex Cora signing, for example, Well, there’s $2M right there. Add those two to the $2.25M wasted on Tim Redding and suddenly you have a little over four million bucks to sweeten the pot for Abreu, who had reportedly been very interested in returning to the NL and playing another year in New York. Now you tell me: who would make more of an impact on the ‘09 Mets? A combination of Cora and Redding or Abreu by himself? This becomes all the more irresponsible when you see people like David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Josh Fogg, and Odalis Perez signing cheap, non-guaranteed, minor-league deals.
Take a look at the assortment of nickels and dimes handed out by the Mets so far this winter:
$2.25M, Tim Redding
$2M, Alex Cora
$1.7M, Fernando Tatis
$1.6875M, Duaner Sanchez
$1.6, Pedro Feliciano
$925K, Jeremy Reed
$600K, Cory Sullivan
$575K, Angel Pagan
Right there is over $11M, spent on 8 players who are either overpriced, redundant, or won’t make the 25-man roster. The Mets had the option to let go any of the last six on the list, and to ignore the first two. I understand that you need “bit players” and extra guys to fill out a roster. I can sort of understand giving Tatis the big money after his great second half. I personally like both Duaner Sanchez and Pedro Feliciano, but from a business standpoint, either could have been replaced for about half their salaries (for example, LOOGY Juan Rincon signed a minor league deal; several other relief pitchers remain available). The real head-scratcher is the $2.1M handed to Reed, Sullivan, and Pagan, who are essentially the same player. Why not keep just one, or better yet, bring in any of the dozens of defensive-minded AAAA free-agent outfielders on a minor league deal?
If the Mets couldn’t afford another $3-4M to bag Bobby Abreu (or Adam Dunn, for that matter),then maybe they should have been more astute in their scrap heap bidding. A nickel saved here, a dime saved there, and Abreu — who is much better than the current Tatis/Murphy platoon — could have been a Met. Abreu batted third for the Yankees last year, yet would have fit somewhere from #5-7 in the Mets lineup. Think about that for a moment, and then consider the fiscal irresponsibility that has marred the Mets’ offseason. Yes, the Mets picked up K-Rod for below-market value, and brought back Oliver Perez at a fair price, but nearly every other “little” signing has effectively negated the efficiency of those signings.
Kucinich Pushing the Citi Out of Field
After receiving a sweet bailout as a reward for royally mismanaging its finances, Citigroup is coming under fire from prominent politicos such as Dennis Kucinich, who says the US government should demand that the bank cancel its “Citi Field” sponsorship with the Mets.
“The Treasury Department, which forced Citigroup corporate executives to give up their private jet, should also demand that Citigroup cancel its $400 million advertisement at the Mets field and instead being to repay their debt to the taxpayers.”
Hat tip to MetsToday reader “wohjr” for the link.
An intriguing proposal, to say the least. On the one hand, Citi did enter into a contract with the Mets, and what’s the point of a contract if one side decides to, um, bail out? Further, doesn’t the company need to continue advertising and promoting their brand? For example, if the US bails out GM, does that mean they should stop doing TV commercials? Tough question.
On the other hand, would Citigroup gain enough customers in the next 20 years to justify the $400M investment? Hard to say, as I’m not a marketing forecaster.
From the perspective of the average joe, smattering your name across a baseball stadium when you’re broke doesn’t look so great. It could, in fact, be argued that Citigroup will LOSE customers as a result of continuing with their sponsorship. It doesn’t matter if Citi takes that $400M and spends it on a rash of TV commercials, magazine ads, and PR events — the guy on the street can’t SEE that money being spent.
Naturally, there’s also the point that taxpayers have been partially funding the stadium’s construction … so why isn’t the taxpayer’s name on the front of the park?
From the Mets fans’ perspective, it’s just as murky. Without Citi’s name on the stadium, the Mets have $20M less to work with every year — which more or less pays for Johan Santana’s contract. Since the team appears to already be penny-pinching, would such a loss in revenue result in payroll cuts? Would the team begin to operate even more like a small-market club? Of course, there’s also the possibility that they are able to get another, more lucrative sponsor for the stadium. Though, it’s hard to imagine someone stepping up with big bucks in this economic climate — unless the company is Google or Raytheon.
Many have been speculating that the Mets disinterest in big names such as C.C. Sabathia and Manny Ramirez was due to the Bernie Madoff scandal. Perhaps. And, perhaps they are also bracing for the possible loss of Citi’s $400M commitment.
Giants Sign Juan Uribe
The San Francisco Giants have signed infielder Juan Uribe to a minor league contract.
As a Mets fan, why do you care? Well, you probably don’t. But it should be noted that Uribe is:
1. a righthanded hitter with power
2. versatile — he plays 2B, SS, and 3B
3. an excellent glove man
4. only 29 years old
5. signed to a minor league deal
Uribe hit 20+ homers in three out of the four years from 2004-2007. He lost his starting 2B job last spring to Alexei “All-World” Ramirez, and became a utility infielder with pop. In truth, I doubt he’s actually 29 years old — something tells me there was a “paperwork adjustment” — but if he is indeed under thirty, he should have at least one or two more years of peak performance left in him.
Once again — great glove man, former starter at 2B, good pop in the bat, righthanded hitter, signed to a minor league deal, which likely is much less than $1M guaranteed. Doesn’t that sound like an IDEAL fit for the New York Mets?
Oh, that’s right, the Mets signed 33-year-old, lefthanded hitting, no-pop Alex Cora to a $2M guaranteed MLB contract. Smart move.
Mets Sign Four Scrubs
The New York Mets have signed Bobby Kielty, Tony Armas Jr., Matt DeSalvo, and Valerio de los Santos to minor league contracts, and invited them to spring training.
Ho hum.
Nowhere in those four names do I see “Ramirez”, “Perez”, nor “Sheets”.
In other news, the Orioles have decided to move on from Kevin Millar, who happens to be a righthanded hitter with some power and the ability to play LF better than Fernando Tatis. Unfortunately, Millar’s status as a scab in 1995 still irks the prince of darkness, Tony Bernazard.
I like seeing Armas come back, even though he once again showed himself a Glass Joe in ‘08. I’ve always liked Armas’ competitiveness. If he can only stay healthy, he just might be good enough to be a long reliever / spot starter.
Kielty is a switch-hitting outfielder with a tiny bit of pop and one heckuva shock of red hair. I think he might be Irish, which is nice. It’s also nice that he can swing from the right side of the plate — something few outfielders in the Mets organization can do.
De Los Santos has almost twenty letters in his name, and throws with his left hand. He doesn’t throw particularly well, but balls do emanate from the south side of the stadium. He is 35 years old and LH hitters pound him to the tune of .262. His “best” years came at ages 29 and 30, when he was with the Brewers. He posted a career low 3.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP as a 29-year-old in 2002. He’s been pretty much awful ever since, and before. He’ll be good filler material in AAA.
Still waiting to see the Mets bring back the ageless wonder Ricardo Rincon, a LOOGY who actually had success in his career, and didn’t look half-bad last September.
DeSalvo is a former Yankee who pitched two innings for the Braves last year. In those two frames, he gave up 11 hits, 2 walks, and 7 runs. However, he did strike out 2, so there’s that. Many articles have been written on him in regard to the fact he can read; apparently, most MLBers are illiterate. Hopefully he can help the Buffalo Bisons complete the NY Times crossword puzzles.
Andruw Jones Available
As expected, the Los Angeles Dodgers released Andruw Jones, arranging to pay his salary over the course of several years.
All along, it was expected that Jones would return to the Braves, as he always felt very comfortable in Atlanta and enjoyed playing for Bobby Cox. In fact, over the past few days Jones has been seen practicing with Chipper Jones and wearing a Braves cap at basketball games.
However, the Braves are not exactly welcoming him back with open arms — and may not offer him a contract at all.
The issue is simple — the Braves have a full 40-man roster stocked with an abundance of young talent. If they sign Jones to a MLB contract, they’d have to drop someone off — and that someone would likely be a strong prospect, who would be picked up by another team. Further, the Braves do not currently have a need for Jones, as they have an abundance of outfielders led by Jeff Francoeur and youngsters Josh Anderson and Brandon Jones. To make room, the Braves would likely have to either waive or trade someone like Gregor Blanco, Martin Prado, or Omar Infante. None of those players are stars, but all three showed offensive promise in 2008, are fairly young, versatile, and can do a lot of things a team needs from role players. Bobby Cox’s formula for success has always included the flexibility of such players — guys who may not be sluggers, but can execute all the “little things” and help the team in many other ways. Andruw Jones would have to have a great spring training to push one of those guys off the roster.
Because of the Braves’ lukewarm interest, Andruw Jones has to look for other options, and according to MLB.com:
Jones has told friends that he believes the Reds and Mets could make a push to acquire him. Both of these teams reportedly talked to the Dodgers about acquiring him via trade earlier this offseason.
Personally, I hope that’s true. Say what you want about Jones being finished, being a lazy fat pig, being finished, etc. etc. etc. Bottom line is this: the Mets are in DIRE need of a power hitting, righthanded-hitting corner outfielder. The current free agent market offers exactly one person to fit that description — Manny Ramirez — and all indications are that the Mets refuse to go that route. After Manny, the market drops considerably for a RH-hitting outfielder: Kevin Millar, Jacque Jones, Jay Payton, Emil Brown, and Jonny Gomes. That’s it, folks! Now you tell me — would you prefer to bring in one of those underwhelming possibilities, or take a $400,000 gamble on Andruw Jones?
Earlier this winter, I make the argument that the Mets should try to swap Castillo for Jones — such a deal would have had the Mets paying $15M for Jones (but also shedding $18M of Castillo’s contract). It would have been nice for the Mets to be $3M ahead and have Jones, but the same arguments apply for bringing him in on the MLB minimum salary — it’s a low-risk gamble that has the chance of paying off big.
Here’s my feeling: either Andruw Jones is going to hit again, or he’s not, and everything is based on him being healthy and regaining his confidence. If he has a promising, injury-free spring training, there’s a very good chance he’ll come back and hit 20-25 HR, with game-changing ability. He’s that kind of player, and there aren’t many around. If he looks awful in spring training, no biggie — you release him outright, and eat $400K. Jones is exactly the right fit for the penny-pinching Mets: he’ll come dirt cheap, he’ll be a one-year rental to keep LF warm for F-Mart, he has a RH bat, and he has extensive postseason success.
Last year, the Mets waited three months for their $16M investment in Carlos Delgado to pay off. Eventually, their patience was rewarded — handsomely. Without Delgado, the Mets might have finished in third place in 2008. Similarly, the Mets once gambled millions on Mo Vaughn, though that didn’t turn out quite so well. But it’s worth it for a team to take such risks when the upside is so great — Delgado, Vaughn, and Jones all had the skillset to be a monster for stretches at a time, to put a team on its back and carry them. The difference with Jones is, at 31, younger than either of them were (Vaughn was 34, Delgado 36), and won’t cost anywhere near the millions gambled on a comeback.
Unless the Mets reconsider their feelings about Manny Ramirez, or have some blockbuster trade in the works, picking up Andruw Jones is a no-brainer.
Lineup Comparison: Phillies
Consider this: the “team to beat” is the Phillies, so the Mets’ focus should be on putting a team on the field that is better head-to-head. I don’t believe that the Mets’ pitching staff — even with the game shortened to seven innings — is head and shoulders above the Phillies’. Where the Mets have an advantage at the end of the game, the Phillies appear to be stronger through the first seven. So the separating factor between the two teams is more likely to come down to offense — an area where they were exact equals in 2008, tying for second in the NL with 799 runs apiece.
The question is, can each team score almost 800 runs again, and/or, will one team have an offensive edge?
Comparing the two lineups, it’s a close call. The Mets have Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and most likely Luis Castillo occupying the first four spots in the lineup. The Phillies counter with a top four of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. We can argue which team is stronger leadoff through cleanup, but I tend to think that — even if Dan Murphy is the Mets’ #2 hitter — the teams are pretty close to equal. Similarly, the bottom of the orders are comparable — right now it looks like the Brian Schneider / Ramon Castro platoon hitting eighth vs. the Chris Coste / Carlos Ruiz tandem.
Where the edge will come, then, is in batting spots 5 through 7. It’s my cockamamie theory that the team strongest 5-7 will be the NL East champions in 2009.
Take a look at the comparison side by side:
Raul Ibanez | Carlos Delgado
Jayson Werth / Geoff Jenkins | Ryan Church
Pedro Feliz / Gregg Dobbs | Fernando Tatis / Daniel Murphy
The order above is interchangeable, but what I tried to do was pair up the combinations that most closely matched. Ibanez and Delgado are similar in that they’re both entering the twilights of their careers, but had strong enough finishes to their ‘08 campaigns to provide optimism for ‘09. I think this comparison, like the first four hitters, is a wash. I expect a dropoff from Ibanez due to the change in leagues and aging process, but CBP may artificially soften that downward trend. Delgado will still hit more homeruns, but Ibanez will swat more doubles and hit 25-30 points higher. In the end their runs and RBI totals should be close.
Where the Phillies really had an advantage last year was in the #6 and #7 holes, which featured any combination of Jayson Werth, Pedro Feliz, Greg Dobbs, and Geoff Jenkins. The Werth / Jenkins tandem last year combined for .260 AVG. /33 HR/96 RBI production. Feliz had his typical injury-riddled year, dotted with hot streaks and cold streaks, and Dobbs might have hit a little over his head at .301. None of those players are guaranteed to repeat their performances, mind you, but all of them have enough history to lead you to believe they’ll come close.
That said, I’m not sure Church can approach the production of Werth / Jenkins (or Werth on his own, if that’s how it shakes out). Looking at each’s skillset, Church and Werth may well put up close to equal numbers. But that will only happen if Werth’s 2008 was his ceiling, AND Church can significantly increase his ability to divert pitches over the wall.
Just as concerning, I don’t know that the Tatis / Murphy experiment is going to be head and shoulders above the Pedro Feliz / Greg Dobbs combination. If Feliz can stay healthy — which is a big if — he’ll hit his typical .250, and probably hit 20-22 homers. Dobbs may not hit .300 again, but his 9 HRs and 40 RBI in 226 ABs were a followup to 10 HR and 55 RBI in 324 ABs in 2007. In other words, there’s a decent shot that the 30-year-old Dobbs provides similar numbers in ‘09. If so, that gives the Phillies a combined #7 hitter with a line somewhere in the neighborhood of a .270 AVG., 30 HR, and 100 RBI. Can Tatis and Murphy match that? Again, there would have to be either a status quo or decline on the Phillies’ duo, and a trend upward for the Mets. Not impossible, but another case of hopes and wishes.
Of course, the Mets could remove all doubt by signing Manny Ramirez. However, all indications suggest that won’t happen. In fact, the Mets likely won’t sign either of the other two impact bats still available — Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu. Beyond those three, there might be a few veteran hitters who, with a little luck, could tip the lineups into the Mets’ favor — someone like Andruw Jones, Kevin Millar, Garret Anderson, Jonny Gomes, or Ken Griffey. Millar, in particular, would seem to be a nice fit, as he could spell both Delgado and Church, and/or be the platoon partner for Murphy in left, and provide a solid RH bat off the bench. But, Millar could be looking for a regular job elsewhere, and even if he is interested in wearing the orange and blue, Tony Bernazard still holds a grudge against him for crossing the picket line in 1994 (Bernazard was an important pencil-pusher for the MLBPA back then).
But in the end, none of the free agents appear to be on the Mets’ radar, and it’s hard to see a situation where the Mets can import one via trade. Their top trading chips for an MLB position player are Murphy, Jon Niese, and Fernando Martinez, and they’d probably have to trade at least two of those three to get back an impact bat. The chance of that happening is about as likely as Eric Byrnes arriving in return for Luis Castillo — slim and none.
In short, the Mets and Phillies, as currently constituted, appear to be equal again offensively. The Phillies are probably done making offseason moves. So, if the Mets can acquire one more big bat, it would give them an edge — at least, offensively.
Unfortunately, the Mets still have to make three or four moves to improve the pitching staff, and their “one thing at a time” approach suggests that bat may not make it by spring training.
Bullpen is Not Done
Congratulations to Omar Minaya for shortening 2009 Mets games to seven innings. Indeed, the one-two punch of “K-Putz” has the potential to be the most effective since the Mariano Rivera – John Wetteland duo of 1996. However, there is still the matter of the innings one through seven.
The Mets didn’t get the innings-eating Derek Lowe to plug up the front end of their rotation, and as a result, it looks like another season of starters who struggle to get into, and through, the sixth inning. So even with K-Putz waiting to shut the door, Mets games will still be a crapshoot during the sixth and seventh frames. For one, Pedro Feliciano won’t suddenly evolve from his ideal role of LOOGY — been there, tried that, it didn’t work. Sean Green might be helpful, or he may be another Jon Adkins. Joe Smith is gone. Brian Stokes is back, but can he be as good through 65-70 games as he was in his two dozen appearances of last year? A couple of Rule 5 picks might have a chance to stick — Darren O’Day and Rocky Cherry. Connor Robertson — the guy the Mets received in return for Scott Schoeneweis — might be worse than Adkins. What all these names tell us most is, the sixth and the seventh innings are no more a slam dunk than they were last year.
Luckily, there is still time to rectify the situation. First, there are a number of intriguing free agent middle relievers looking for a new team. For example, Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, and Jason Isringhausen are unemployed. 2008 Mets Luis Ayala, Ricardo Rincon, and Matt Wise are waiting for an ST invite. Chad Cordero auditioned for a bunch of teams, and I’m stunned that Omar Minaya hasn’t locked him up yet. Most recently, the Red Sox DFA’d David Aardsma, a guy who I clamored for this time last year.
My favorites are Cordero, Rincon, Ayala, and Aardsma. Cordero because he’s a low-risk, high-reward type, with a strong competitive fire. I like Rincon because he’s just as good as any other available LOOGY, but will come at a fraction of the cost and will require only a one-year commitment. Ayala is another competitor who was misplaced as a setup man/closer last year, but would be perfect as a 6th/7th inning guy. Aardsma is a diamond in the rough, a late bloomer type in the mold of a Dan Wheeler.
Before you laugh about Aardsma’s 5.55 ERA last year, understand that he pitched 24 of his 47 games in Fenway Park, which can have a dramatic effect on a pitcher’s mentality, focus, and performance. Before you write him off, consider his numbers outside of Fenway Park — 23 IP, 15 H, 19 K, 13 BB, 2.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Wow. That’s like, as good as Juan Cruz — and Aardsma did that in the AL East.
Obviously, the Mets’ biggest issue right now is located a #3 starter. But in the meantime, it wouldn’t hurt to pick up a few more cans of paint for the bullpen wall. Cordero would be a nice calculated gamble, and any one of the others would provide ample depth. What the Mets have done for middle relief, to this point, is change the names — that’s not necessarily the same as improving. As we know, change by itself is not always better. Picking up one or two quality arms will complete the bullpen overhaul, and make the ENTIRE relief corps a team strength.
Braves Targeting Lowe
Per several sources, agent Scott Boras is meeting with the Atlanta Braves to talk about Derek Lowe.
Lowe had reportedly been offered a 3-year, $35M contract by the New York Mets. Boras is seeking at least four years at around $16M per season for his client.
In desperate need to add starting pitching, the Atlanta ended trade talks with the Padres for Jake Peavy a month ago, and most recently were spurned by longtime Brave John Smoltz, who just agreed to a one-year contract with the Boston Red Sox.
Seeing the talent pool thin, and Lowe’s price tag dropping to below-market standards, Braves GM Frank Wren reached out to Boras. In addition, manager Bobby Cox met with Lowe in Atlanta, and Chipper Jones placed a phone call to the free agent pitcher in hopes of turning him on to “America’s Team”.
Despite this three-way blitz from Atlanta, Ken Rosenthal claims,
“From what I understand, the Braves are not interested in going beyond the three-year, $36 million offer from the Mets… I still don’t see the Braves going where Scott Boras will want them to go.”
Well then Ken, they’re putting on an Oscar-winning performance in the art of the bluff.
Meanwhile, the Mets are standing firm with an offer that pales in comparison to what Carlos Silva received last year from the Seattle Mariners.
While they have Boras’ ear, one must wonder if the Braves will also inquire about Oliver Perez, another free agent handled by the superagent? After all, the 27-year-old lefty has a 6-4 record and 3.46 ERA, including one shutout, in his career against Atlanta.
Actually, the best scenario for Boras is for the Braves to sign Lowe, which would in turn jack up the price on Perez for the Mets. But while the Mets continue to play chicken, the market for both pitchers continues to swell — some reports have the Phillies and Brewers looking at Lowe, and the Angels could be in the bidding for either pitcher.
What if the Mets lose out on BOTH Lowe AND Perez? The next-best starter on the market is probably Jon Garland, who would be a nice innings-eater at the back end of the rotation, but doesn’t project to be much else — even with a change to the NL. After Garland, the quality drops off considerably, with Tim Redding and Randy Wolf — both of whom have been linked to the Mets this winter — leading the pack.
This should be a significant concern for Omar Minaya, who as of now has two healthy starting pitchers heading into spring training (which by the way is only 36 days away). Should Lowe, Perez, Garland, and Redding sign elsewhere — which is a distinct possibility — Minaya’s best chance of putting together a championship rotation will begin with a novena. Hope he has knee pads.
Take a look for yourself at the starters available after Perez and Lowe:
Healthy, but Mediocre to Adequate:
Jon Garland
Tim Redding
Randy Wolf
Braden Looper
Healthy, but Awful to Mediocre:
Chuck James
Livan Hernandez
Odalis Perez
Sidney Ponson
Josh Fogg
Elmer Dessens
Good Potential, Questionable Health:
Ben Sheets
Jason Jennings
Mark Prior
Andy Pettitte
Mark Mulder
Curt Schilling
Questionable Potential, Questionable Health:
Bartolo Colon
Pedro Martinez
Freddy Garcia
Orlando Hernandez
Tom Glavine
Tony Armas
Now, let’s consider a few things. First, Tom Glavine is not coming back, and neither is Braden Looper. In addition, the Mets won’t roll the dice on dicey arms such as Mulder, Jennings, and Prior. They might take a chance on Freddy Garcia, and might be forced to gamble on Sheets. Pedro and El Duque would love to come back, but then it would feel like Groundhog Day. If Schilling were a possibility — which he likely isn’t — he wouldn’t be available until at least July. I’m not even going to qualify Dessens, Fogg, and Ponson. Odalis Perez and Livan Hernandez have been linked to the Mets in the past, and they could get ST invites — the question is, would we care? Pettitte would be a nice coup to annoy the crosstown Yankees, but he’s already turned down a $10M offer the Mets aren’t likely to top. Chuck James had a 9.10 ERA last year; he’s a guy who would be nice to have at AAA — not someone holding up the middle of your rotation. That leaves the underwhelming trio of Garland, Redding, and Wolf as the last men standing — they’re not necessarily coveted, but rather the default values left over when the quality has exited the market.
Should the Mets be stuck with a combination of Redding, Garland, and/or Wolf supporting the back end of their rotation, they will have no choice but to bring in Manny Ramirez. If you can’t keep the other team from scoring, then you have to outscore ‘em, right?
It will be interesting to see how this drama develops over the next two weeks …
Last Year’s Scrap Heap
Last winter we regularly combed through the scrap heap in search of possible nuggets for the Mets to consider. Strangely enough, few if any of our recommendations were acted upon by the Mets. Is it possible that Omar Minaya and Tony Bernazard do NOT read this blog? Crazy thought, I know.
Anyway, the recent signing of Jody Gerut to a one-year, $1.775M contract by the Padres reminded me that he was one of players we discussed here prior to the opening of 2008 spring training.
Specifically:
Padres sign OF Jody Gerut to a minor league contract.
This doesn’t really mean much to Mets fans, since Gerut is a lefthanded hitting outfielder — and we already have Endy for that role. But it’s intriguing to me anyway. Gerut finished fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2003, when he hit 33 doubles, 22 homers, drove in 75 runs, and batted .280 in only 127 games for the Indians. Then he fell off the planet due to knee injuries, and hasn’t appeared in an MLB game since 2005. However, he’s tearing up the Venezuelan league this winter, to the tune of .390 with 80 total bases in 40 games. It appears he’s healthy, and motivated to win a job somewhere. The Padres might have a find in this guy.
In that same article from late last January, we also liked Sean Burnett, David Aardsma, Jeremy Affeldt, Octavio Dotel, Franklyn German, and Mike Myers. OK, we missed on Myers, but the other five enjoyed mixed success. Let’s review each of them.
Sean Burnett
What was said in January:
… while researching Gerut, I noticed that former #1 pick Sean Burnett had a 2.45 ERA in Venezuela. Burnett looked promising in a short trial as a 21-year-old in 2004, then succumbed to elbow issues and Tommy John surgery, which eliminated him from competition for all of 2005 and part of ‘06. It appears he’s now healthy, and was never a flamethrower — more a control guy with a hard sinker. If his velocity is near the 88-90 range, he has the control and guile to be a solid #4 at the MLB level. He’s still on the Pirates’ 40-man, and it might be interesting to watch his progress. If he cracks the 25-man roster, who knows — he might be trade bait come July.
What happened in 2008:
Burnett did make the Pirates’ 25-man roster and appeared in 58 games, posting a 4.76 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Not great by any means, but he held LH hitters to a .171 batting average, .238 OBP, and .271 SLG. Add in he’s only 25 years old and still recovering from his elbow issues — and still very cheap — and suddenly he’s a bargain LOOGY with some upside.
David Aardsma
What was said in January:
Aardsma was a 2003 #1 pick after becoming Rice U’s all-time career saves leader. He was rushed to the bigs by the Giants, was knocked back down quickly, and bounced to the Cubs and White Sox in the past two years. Personally, I think this kid has great potential, but needs to stay in one place long enough to build his confidence and prove his worth. He just turned 26 years old, and could be one of those guys who could blossom all at once and “come out of nowhere” — a la Cla Meredith or Tony Pena — to become a valuable middle reliever. After Aardsma was DFA’d, a part of me hoped the Mets’ brass was on the case, but the BoSox moved quickly in acquiring him for two non-prospects. I think he could have been a nice addition to the bullpen depth — particularly since he still has options.
What happened in 2008:
Aardsma played a fairly important role eating up innings out of the Bosox bullpen, appearing in 47 games and striking out 49 batters in 48 IP. He walked 35, though, and posted a 5.55 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Before you scoff at those numbers, however, check out what he did outside of Fenway Park — 23 IP, 15 H, 19 K, 13 BB, 2.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. That walk rate is still high, but this is clearly a guy who had troubles pitching with the Green Monster at his back. Away from Boston, Aardsma had numbers comparable to Juan Cruz.
Jeremy Affeldt
What was said in January:
… had he not been offered a spot in the Reds’ rotation, he might have been a nice fit in the old Darren Oliver role.
What happened in 2008:
OK, he wasn’t really a “scrap heap” guy, but his strong 2007 in Colorado only earned him a 1-year deal with the Reds. In Cincinnati he had another strong season, which he parlayed into a 2-year, $8M contract with the Giants.
Octavio Dotel
What was said in January:
Yes, I’ve been advocating the acquisition of Dotel all winter. And I still think, even at two years, he would have been worth it. If the Mets were willing to give flash-in-the-pan LOOGY Scott Schoeneweis a three-year deal, I see no logic in failing to offer a two-year deal to Dotel, who has tons more upside and significant experience in both closer and setup roles. Yes, his fragility is a concern, but that’s why he came as cheap as he did …
What happened in 2008:
72 G | 67 IP | 92 K | 52 H | 29 BB | 1.29 WHIP | 3.76 ERA
Like Affeldt, Dotel was hardly a “scrap heap” guy, but teams were shying away due to concerns about his health. The two-year deal given by the ChiSox seemed risky. Well, as you see he appeared in 72 games and had a crazy amount of strikeouts — just the type of “swing and miss guy” the Mets admitted they needed desperately in their 2008 bullpen. The one negative was susceptibility to the gopher ball — he allowed a dozen dingers. Still, how would the Mets’ season have played out if Dotel was one of the relief options?
Franklyn German
What was said in January:
German is a flamethrower who once rated higher than Joel Guzman in the Tigers’ organization. German stands 6′7″, weighs 270 lbs., and hurls the ball in excess of 100 MPH. Why he hasn’t done much is something of a mystery — his strikeout totals in the minors have been insane (career: 531 Ks in 495 IP) but he hasn’t been able to stay on an ML roster. I’ve seen him pitch both in Detroit and in the Dominican League, and can’t figure it out — in the Dominican, he’s been an intimidating, effective closer. He was a free agent this winter and chose to stick with Texas despite spending all of 2007 playing for their AAA team. I would have liked to seen him as one of cans of paint the Mets throw on the wall this spring — a Jorge Julio type that Rick Peterson could have had fun with. But then, I guess that project slot has been filled by Joselo Diaz.
What happened in 2008
As usual, German had trouble getting out of AAA, mainly due to control issues. He did manage to open the season in the bigs and pitch in 17 games with the Rangers, hurling 22 innings, allowing 18 hits, 13 walks, striking out 15 and posting a 2.08 ERA. After a three-inning outing in late May, he was DFA’d, signed by the Pirates, spent the rest of the year in AAA, and then in August was traded to the White Sox for a player to be named later. I’m not certain, but believe a big league club has already invited him to spring training.
Like last winter, we’ll be sifting through the scrap heap in search of hidden gems between now and the opening of spring training 2009. Hopefully Omar and co. are paying attention this time.
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