Like moths to a flame, bloggers, boarders and callers are all stirred up over a tweet from Anthony DiComo who has “heard” that the Mets are done tweaking the 40-man roster. DiComo hears it, Cerrone posts and comments on it and bang, instant “story.” Maybe we should wait for a team source to confirm it? It’s unwelcome news for sure, if it is indeed true. What it does do however, is give a clearer idea of what the Opening Day roster might look like and another excuse for me to pad my article count total on Mets Today.

As of January 12, 2012 (the 44th anniversary of the Jet win in SB III) here is the projected Opening Day roster for the New York Mets:

Eight Starters: Torres-cf, Murphy-2b, Wright-3b, Davis-1b, Bay-lf, Duda-rf, Tejada-ss, Thole-c

Five in the Rotation: Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey and Gee.

Four on the Bench: Cedeno-ss, Turner-2b, Hairston-OF and Nickeas-c

Six in the Pen: Francisco-cl, Rauch-8th, Ramirez-7th, Byrdak-LOOGY, Parnell-ROOGY and Acosta

That’s 23. First off, I don’t know if we should be happy or sad that a team coming off three consecutive losing seasons while staring at a fourth has nearly its entire opening day roster set more than a month before spring training starts. Is this a new-found stability or just more evidence that the team is so badly hamstrung by their finances that they can’t do anything?

Of the players mentioned, I think that Johan Santana has the best (worst?) chance to start the season on the DL. Looking into my crystal ball, I expect about 20-25 starts from Johan this year, with him maybe joining the team in Miami in May and perhaps being passed over a few times in late July and then a September shut down. I also think Bobby Parnell is being wasted as a ROOGY and would like to see him close in Buffalo. As for that bench, well it’s just awful right now.
But I digress. With 23 Opening Day spots seemingly nailed down, there are two left to be filled. If there are no major moves being made between now and then we have to assume that spots #24 and #25 will go either to someone already connected to the organization or who will take a cheap, non-guaranteed offer. So here are a few possibilities:

• A down-sized roster: Hey it’s all the rage elsewhere; maybe the Wilpons figure that fewer workers can handle the load and go with 23 players to do the work of 25. Don’t laugh; we older fans might recall the 1980’s when teams used a 24-man roster.

• Future Shock: It would be a developmental disaster, IMHO, to push any of the prospects before their time, but perhaps Kirk Nieuwenhuis goes north as the 5th outfielder and someone like Robert Carson or Josh Edgin get the last bullpen spot. The Mets most likely plan to market the Harveys, Wheelers, etc. heavily in the coming months and it might be tempting to use one or more of these guys as teasers for the steady stream of good young players that they hope will soon follow. I don’t think that either Terry Collins or Sandy Alderson are in danger of losing their jobs, so they don’t have to promote any of these guys early to save their skins, a la Omar and Jerry with Jenrry Mejia. While I am intrigued by some of the Mets prospects, I really don’t want to see any of here until this September at the earliest.

• Quad-A Blue Plate Specials: Sadly for us, I think this is the most likely scenario. Look to the bench for precedent. I am sure that Mike Nickeas is a wonderful person and has worked hard to get here, but there is nothing in his body of minor league work to suggest that he belongs on a major league roster. His main asset it appears is that he costs the major league minimum. So brace yourselves for the Home Opener tip of the cap from Chris Schwinden, or Jose Bautista, or Pedro Beato (still holding out hope for him), or Mike Baxter or Val Pascucci or Adam Loewen.

• Will Work For Food: OK that isn’t funny, but perhaps a combination of investor money and some too-go-to pass-on players results in the late February minor league contract/spring training invite to some intriguing names. Imagine for example, Ivan Rodriquez coming to the Mets and pursuing his 3,000th hit. That might be the most interesting on-field development for the Mets in 2012. Even at .218 he out-hit Nickeas last year. Instead of Bautista, how about Brad Penny or Joel Pinero for the last pitcher’s spot? Not expecting great shakes, but I think I would rather see either of them start in place of Santana than I would Bautista. For the 5th outfielder, who about Rick Ankiel? I really like Lucas Duda but am concerned about a season-long force feed in right field. Ankiel’s arm makes him the perfect late-inning replacement. Too late now, perhaps, but I really wanted a grinder like Ryan Theriot at second. I just cringe every time I think of Murphy at second (and I am a Murphy fan).

So what do you think might happen between now and Spring Training?

Braves 4 Mets 1

Jerry Manuel made a brilliant move by moving Carlos Beltran into the #3 spot of the lineup. Manuel — an ardent student of the game and one who is constantly poring over statistics, in search of any angle or advantage that could give his team an edge — went through the stats and noticed that Beltran was hitting over .370 with a 1.000+ OPS vs. Atlanta starter Tim Hudson with 4 HR in 23 ABs. The move paid off in spades, as Beltran delivered an RBI double in the fifth.

Unfortunately, Manuel couldn’t pull any other rabbits out of his statistically inclined magic hat, and that one run was the sole scored by the New York Mets.

Meanwhile, ace starter Johan Santana allowed three runs in the first inning — a steep, unsurmountable deficit for the feeble offense from Flushing.

Game Notes

Santana didn’t pitch all that bad, but he didn’t pitch all that great, either. He allowed 4 earned runs on 9 hits and 2 walks in 7 innings, and became the second Met in 2010 to reach double-digits in Ks with 11. The three runs in the first frame could easily be blamed on Luis Castillo, who muffed a potential double-play relay from David Wright that might’ve gotten Santana out of early trouble. As Mets fans, we love scapegoats, and we especially love it when we can position Castillo as the goat with the most scape. But the reality is that it was Santana who allowed two walks and three hits in the first inning. His command was questionable — in addition to the two walks, he also gave Matt Diaz a belt-high meatball (when ahead on the count) that was mashed for an RBI double. Everyone makes mistakes, and when everyone makes mistakes in the same inning, runners tend to score.

Diaz drove in the first run of the game, and the next two were driven in by Rick Ankiel, who ripped a double in his first at-bat as a Brave. In case you missed it, the Braves acquired Rick Ankiel in a trade with the Royals on July 31. It was termed a “deadline deal”, as it was a trade made on the last day teams were able to make trades without first clearing players through waivers. The “trade deadline” is a rather novel concept that has only been around about 70 years — a blink of an eye compared to the distance in time when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. In fact, the “deadline” used to be June 15th, so unless you are a really in-tune baseball fan, you (and some MLB GMs) may not even have realized teams could still make trades so late in the year.

We were told during the telecast — in so many words — that Martin Prado and Omar Infante are two different people. At least, that’s what they’re telling us (something about “Prado” being injured and “Infante” taking his place). Strange, though, that we never see both players in uniform at the same time — kind of like Michael and LaToya Jackson back in the 1980s. Remember how Prado was leading the NL in hitting and Infante was the one on the All-Star team? There’s something to this story that is worth investigating further …

Former Met Billy Wagner earned his 25th save of the year, only a few days after we watched former Met Aaron Heilman notch his 4th save for Arizona. Thankfully the Mets won’t be in San Diego anytime soon.

During the TV broadcast, and immediately after Luis Castillo‘s crucial error in the bottom of the first, Gary Cohen referred to Castillo’s “halcyon days as a Gold Glover”. Wow. HALCYON. If that isn’t a candidate for Readers’ Digest “Enrich Your Word Power” I don’t know what is. I’m going to put the over/under at 8 years before we hear “halcyon” used during a Mets broadcast again.

Hey, what a great idea, by the way — to enrich our word power during Mets games! There won’t be much other value in watching this team play their way out of the playoff race. My suggestion for the next word: unpropitious.

Next Mets Game

Game two of this crucial three-game series takes place at 7:10 PM on Tuesday night in Atlanta. R.A. Dickey pitches for the Mets against Derek Lowe.

It’s always good to see the underachieving Lowe and thinking, “wow, the Mets could’ve made a really bad mistake by signing HIM to a crazy-expensive, multi-year deal”. Because, of course, the Mets signed Oliver Perez that winter instead.

Just before the trade deadline, the first-place Braves made two separate trades to bring in Kyle Farnsworth, Rick Ankiel, and Wilkin Ramirez.

This is the second go-around in Atlanta for Farnsworth, who was quietly having a spectacular season in Kansas City. He sports a sparkling 2.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 36 Ks/12 BB in 45 IP. He hasn’t been in the NL since 2005, so in addition to his rediscovered skillset, he may also have the benefit of mystery.

Also coming from the Royals is outfielder Rick Ankiel, whose season has been marred by a leg injury and sporadic playing time. He will be a welcome addition to centerfield for the Braves, who lost patience with a struggling Nate McLouth and now have Melky Cabrera manning the position. It does, however make them a little lefty-heavy and vulnerable to effective LOOGYs (such as the one acquired by the Marlins a few hours ago). The Braves sent Gregor Blanco, Jesse Chavez, and Tim Collins to the Royals.

To further add to their outfield depth, the Braves also acquired Wilkin Ramirez from Detroit for a player to be named later and cash. I don’t know if he will be added to the 25-man roster or assigned to their AAA club. He was hitting .216 in AAA prior to the deal, but was a highly touted prospect before 2010.

In other news, the Giants picked up righthanded reliever Ramon Ramirez from the Red Sox and lefthanded reliever Javier Lopez from the Pirates. They gave up John Bowker for Ramirez and Joe Martinez for Lopez.

Finally, the Red Sox made a corresponding move, acquiring Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the Rangers in return for two players not named Mike Lowell — Roman Mendez, Chris McGuinness, a player to be named later, and cash.

Meanwhile, the Mets stood pat, having no need for relief pitchers, outfielders, or players whose names don’t fit on the back of a jersey.

As we all know, Carlos Beltran has underwent knee surgery and is expected to be out for 12 weeks. No one is sure if “12 weeks” refers to the time before he can walk, run, or play ball. No one has made clear that it is “at least 12 weeks” or “a minimum of 12 weeks”. The recent history of communications from the Mets in regard to player injuries, though, tells us that the “12 weeks” means little or nothing.

That said, we’ll pretend that Carlos Beltran will NOT be in uniform, in centerfield, in April, and possibly not until May (which, in Metspeak, means, he most likely will be back in the lineup sometime in August).

Who will play centerfield for the Mets while we wait for Beltran’s return? Here are some of the possibilities.

Free Agents

Rick Ankiel
The best free-agent centerfielder still available on the open market. He has no desire to play in NYC, and is coming off an injury-riddled season in which he hit .231.

Alfredo Amezaga
The second-best free-agent centerfielder still available. Hits from both sides of the plate, has good speed, and can play every position on the diamond except catcher. He hit .217 last year and turned 32 a few days ago. In his prime years (27-29) he was a semi-regular super utlityman who hit in the .260s with no power.

Endy Chavez
Endy is coming off major knee surgery that ended his 2009 season. He turns 32 in a few weeks. His age and his surgery likely will affect his once excellent range. Neither issue should affect the fact he has no power, no plate discipline, and is a streak hitter.

Johnny Damon
There was a time that Damon was adequate in centerfield. That time has long past. Comically enough, there have been some pundits who suggest signing Damon for left field and shifting Jason Bay to center — many of the same pundits who previously insisted that Jason Bay’s defensive skills in left field would nullify his offensive production and ultimately doom the Mets.

Cory Sullivan / Jeremy Reed
Either of these choices would provide stellar defense, solid fundamentals, hustle, and good baserunning but only limited offensive production. The cost would be very affordable — likely under $1M.

Reed Johnson
This name is being bandied about more than Sullivan/Reed and I don’t understand why — Reed Johnson is essentially the righthanded, more expensive version of those two. I guess it’s a matter of people preferring change for the sake of change.

Rocco Baldelli
Is he healthy? Can he play every day? Does he want to play in NYC? If the answer is “yes” to all three it’s a no-brainer. But we don’t know the answers.

Randy Winn
Winn has been coveted by the Mets for several years, as his name comes up in rumors every July. He hasn’t been an everyday centerfielder since 2004 because his range is limited. He might be an OK stopgap, providing solid if unspectacular all-around performance. Certainly he is a well-rounded, fundamentally sound ballplayer with extensive experience and has a good rep off the field / in the clubhouse.

Jerry Hairston, Jr.
This name has been suggested by various sources recently. Why, I have no idea. Hairston is essentially an older, more versatile, but otherwise less-talented version of Reed Johnson. His main value is the ability to stand in several different positions on the diamond, but, at none is he particularly stellar — centerfield included. In any case, it appears he’s about to sign with the Padres.

Eric Byrnes
The price tag should be cheap, and if he’s healthy, he might be an OK option — if he’ll sign an MLB-minimum contract. The Crashtest Dummy last played CF regularly in 2006, and no one knows for sure if he’s healthy enough to walk out to center, much less play it.

Gerald “Ice” Williams
I’m kidding.

Trade Candidates

Gary Matthews, Jr.
The Angels are dying to rid themselves of Matthews and his contract — and will probably pay some or all of his salary to make him go away. He hasn’t performed anywhere close to his “enhanced” career year with the Rangers in 2006, and is now 35 years old.

Ryan Spilborghs
The rumor mill was rife with Spilborghs’ name earlier in the winter, and he remains an extra outfielder on the Rockies’ depth chart. The Beaneheads love him for his OBP, and he can cover centerfield adequately enough to be a worthwhile stopgap. But at what cost, and is he any better than Angel Pagan?

In-house Possibilities

Angel Pagan
The most likely and most sensible solution is Angel Pagan. He has the physical (if not mental) skills to handle center field more than adequately, and showed in 2009 that he can be an offensive force in spurts.

Fernando Martinez
Do we really want to watch him be overmatched in MLB when he should be further developing his skills, confidence, and ability to stay on the field in the minors?

Jason Bay / Jeff Francoeur
Even if either of these players was capable of handling centerfield for more than a week, it would still create a hole in one of the corners. Not plausible.

Conclusion

I think we know the way the Mets will go — they’ll plug in Angel Pagan and hope for the best. And looking at the alternatives, it’s not a bad plan. Though, I’d prefer they also back him up with a solid, cheap defender such as Jeremy Reed or Cory Sullivan, AND have a “Plan B” in place — Randy Winn would appear to be the most logical choice in terms of availability and cost. Winn can fill in as a late-inning defender in center and left, and be a veteran bat off the bench — he can just as easily play every day, and/or split time in a platoon situation. Maybe if Ankiel were more interested in playing in New York I’d think differently, but that plus his history suggests he isn’t “built” to play in a big market.

What do you think?

Cardinals 6 Mets 4

Memories of 2008 refuse to fade.

Once again, the Mets scored early, then stopped scoring. Once again, they helped beat themselves with poor fundamentals and inattention to detail. Once again, a certain lefthander remains an enigma.

Oliver Perez shut out the Cardinals through four frames, then fell apart in the fifth, and the Mets never recovered.

Perez was handed a 4-0 lead thanks to RBI hits by Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Danny Murphy, and David Wright, but gave it all back in the fifth inning, allowing four runs on four hits and two walks. Casey Fossum actually walked in the fourth run, which was charged to Perez.

Though they manhandled starter Todd Wellemeyer, the Mets didn’t collect a hit after the sixth against the St. Louis bullpen, and the score remained tied four-all until the bottom of the eighth. Brendan Ryan greeted reliever J.J. Putz with a line drive to left field that was misjudged by Danny Murphy, who fell flat on his back as the ball soared to the wall. Ryan eventually landed on third with a triple (though it probably should have been scored a three-base error), and was chased home on a double by Rick Ankiel. Ankiel took third on a fly ball by Albert Pujols and scored on a sac fly by Ryan Ludwick.

Game Notes

Carlos Beltran nearly scored the go-ahead run in the top of the 8th. Standing on second base with one out, Beltran tagged up and ran for third on a fly ball by Ramon Castro. Third baseman Joe Thurston tried to quickly catch the ball and slap the tag on Beltran, but in the process the ball flew toward the pitcher’s mound. Beltran alertly raced for home, and would have scored had he (a) slid; (b) barreled over Yadier Molina; or (c) not slowed down within the last 5-10 feet of the plate. Unfortunately, Beltran wasted a great head’s up, hustling effort by slowing down and standing up, and in a bang-bang play, Molina tagged him out as Beltran stepped on Molina’s foot instead of the plate.

Iona alum Jason Motte was credited with the win. He threw one pitch that resulted in two outs thanks to Beltran’s aggressive running.

Gary Sheffield ripped what should have been a single up the middle as a pinch-hitter in the ninth, but second baseman Brendan Ryan was positioned directly behind the bag and handled the sizzler easily.

It wasn’t a good night for Murphy, who in addition to the misplayed liner in the fateful 8th, also was picked off first by Yadier Molina and tagged out at home when he (also) failed to slide on a play at the plate.

Ankiel’s mustache is ridiculous. He reminds me of a player (pick one) from the early 80s. Jerry Martin? Mike Vail?

Next Mets Game

Mets try again at 8:15 PM in St. Louis tomorrow night. John Maine goes against Joel Pineiro. The game will be carried on TV by ESPN and also broadcast on WFAN and XM 187.