Mets Game 141: Loss to Phillies
Phillies 3 Mets 0
If it was going to be a 3-0 outcome, it should have been the Mets on the winning end, no? After all, the Phillies bats were ice cold, and hitting in pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium, and the Mets with their scrappy offense and Mike Pelfrey on the mound were poised to win a low-run ballgame. Right?
Somehow, though, neither the Phillies nor the Mets followed the script, and the Sheasters wound up on the wrong end — despite another fantastic performance by Pelfrey, who spun seven stellar innings of four-hit ball, allowing only two earned runs. Unfortunately, one run was all the Phils needed, because the Mets could muster only three hits (two of which were doubles by Daniel Murphy) off starter and winner Brett Myers. The Mets fanned ten times in the process, and were no more effective against closer Brad Lidge — though they made it interesting by putting runners on the corners before the final out was made.
Notes
Other than Big Pelf, Murphy was the only bright spot on a dismal night, going 2-for-4. Strangely enough, the Mets managed four doubles but only one single the entire night — and that didn’t come until the ninth against Lidge.
Brian Stokes pitched another impressive, and perfect, inning of relief.
Ricardo Rincon finally threw his first pitch as a Met, and in fact fulfilled his purpose on the planet as a LOOGY (though, I guess technically it would be LTOGY, though it doesn’t quite roll off the tongue as nicely) by retiring both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. I thought Rincon deserved a spot on the 25-man roster out of spring training …. well, better late than never.
Next Game
Wily old craftsmen Pedro Martinez and Jamie Moyer go head to head on Saturday at 3:55 pm (FOX game, darn), though this angry, blustery chick named Hannah might intervene.
Inside Look: Phillies
This weekend’s series between the Mets and Phillies should be the last time in 2008 they meet each other on a baseball field (save for a one-game playoff).
With the Mets in first by a full three games and 22 left to play, this series could prove to be the most important of the year for both teams.
It’s certain to be a good old fashioned showdown, with both teams bringing their “A game” and sending their top hurlers to the hill. The Phillies, in fact, are moving ace Cole Hamels up a day so he can face Johan Santana on Sunday — though Hamels will still be working on his normal four days’ rest.
If the Mets sweep, they will effectively eliminate the Phillies from contention — though we all remember what happened last year. If the Phillies sweep, it will make for an incredibly tense, gut-wrenching, and exciting September for both teams. If the Mets take two out of three, they’ll push the Phillies further back but not remove them from the race. If the Phillies take two out of three, they pick up one game in the standings and remain in the Mets’ rearview mirror. I think that’s all the “ifs” to cover.
To get the Phillies fans’ perspective, we’ve called on Erik Grissom of the popular Phillies Flow blog:
1. Why the big deal about Cole Hamels pitching on regular rest and starting Sunday? Is there a specific injury concern?
I’m not the spokesman for the team or a medical professional of any kind, but my specific injury concern would be that part of his body could fall off. Most disastrous from a Phillies’ perspective would be his left arm. Hamels has already thrown 203 innings this season and is on-pace to throw 235. Hamels leads the NL in innings pitched and fourth in pitches thrown. He doesn’t turn 25 until December.
There’s not much sign of a slip late in the season — he’s been pitching great. In his nine starts since the break he’s 3-2 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.06 ratio. In his 20 starts this season before the break he went 9-6 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.02 ratio. In 2007, though, he threw significantly fewer innings but had to hit the DL down the stretch with a sore elbow (he didn’t make any starts last season between August 17 and September 17 in 2007).
Manuel has been much better at limiting his pitch count in recent starts, but in four of his first 18 starts this season he threw at least 115 pitches, throwing 120 or more three times.
While there may be general concern about Hamels, part of the bad news for the Phillies is why he is starting out of turn. And the answer is simply that Kyle Kendrick, who should be taking the start, has just been abysmal of late and he’s just not a guy the Phillies can put on the mound in such an important game. Kendrick has allowed 22 earned runs in his last 21 2/3 innings (9.14 ERA) over his last five starts– it may not be long before JA Happ or Adam Eaton replace him in the rotation altogether.
2. Jimmy Rollins was in the manager’s doghouse at the beginning of the season, and eventually became the target of the Philly boo birds. Since his recent hot streak, how is he now perceived by the fans?
Rough season for J-Roll both on and off the field. After being benched in a game for failing to hustle early in the year, Rollins was kept out of the starting lineup for another after failing to arrive at the stadium on time. He later criticized Philadelphia fans, suggesting they were front-runners that only supported a player when things were going well. He’s also down on the incessant booing.
For most of this season, Rollins’ numbers had been down across the board. He has hit well lately, though, and comes into tonight’s game 9-for-his-last-21. His power numbers are still down. He has hit ten home runs this year after hitting 30 in ‘07 and 25 in ‘06. He’s slugging nearly a hundred points lower than he did in ‘07.
The fan reaction to Rollins’ comments and his play have varied. To generalize, I think it’s safe to say that memories of his 2007 MVP season have faded and some love has been lost. However, a lot of the bad feelings have been muted with his play of late. So maybe he was right about the front-runner thing.
3. The Philly bullpen has been outstanding, but also used heavily. Any concerns about it breaking down in the final weeks? Any evidence of a breakdown by anyone? What is Charlie Manuel doing to keep the arms fresh?
I think it’s pretty safe to say that the bullpen breakdown has already arrived — you may remember (or may have blocked it out) that the Phils took a half game lead over the Mets with a win on August 26. They lost three in a row after that, with spectacular failings coming from the pen back-to-back-to-back and costing them all three games.
In terms of innings thrown by the pen, the Phils are near the bottom of the league. The innings haven’t been distributed evenly, however — Durbin and Madson have both already thrown more than 70 innings in relief and both are in the top six in the NL in innings pitched as a reliever.
The Phils are going to have a lot of trouble winning unless they get the core of their pen, Madson, Durbin, Romero and Lidge, pitching well again (or get other guys to step up and replace their contribution).
Manuel has made an effort to manage the key members of his pen. It’s been tough with Romero especially, given that he was the only lefty pitching in relief for the Phils for much of the year. Condrey, Seanez and now Eyre, in limited innings, all have decent numbers in relief for the Phils this season. When you look back at the numbers after the season is over I think there’s a chance we’re going to wonder why Manuel wasn’t a little more willing to go to Condrey and Seanez a little more often.
Manuel has also been hit hard by some failings in the rotation that had waves that made it to the pen. Kendrick hasn’t gone six innings in any of his last five starts, going 21 2/3 innings or about 4 1/3 innings per start. That leaves a lot of innings for the bullpen to pitch. I had also hoped that the addition of Blanton could give the Phils some stability at the top of the rotation and give the pen a rest. The trio of Hamels, Myers and Blanton at the top seems like they should be able to give the Phils innings and keep the pen in the pen and not on the field. But Blanton has also had trouble going deep into games. He’s gone less than six innings four of his last five times out. In his nine starts with the Phils he’s averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start (47 2/3 innings in nine starts, about 5.30 innings per start).
4. What is the key to the Phillies beating the Mets this weekend?
Keep Reyes off the bases. Take their shots at Ayala and the Mets’ bullpen with Wagner out.
I think the return of Church is a challenge for the Phillies as the Mets put another lefty bat in their lineup the Phils haven’t seen for a while. Romero, the Phillies’ top lefty in the pen, has worked a lot this season and has been great against lefties this year. But he can’t pitch to all of them. Scott Eyre is option 1A and he’s been good since joining the Phils. But he doesn’t inspire the same confidence that a fresh Romero would. For a Phillies’ fan it’s tough to forget Delgado’s home run off of Seanez at the end of last month.
5. What is the key to the Phillies repeating as NL East champions?
Getting their offense turned around and getting good work from their bullpen.
The Phillies just aren’t scoring runs. They were tied for tenth in the NL in runs scored in August. They actually went 16-13 in the month, but it was primarily because their starting pitching was very strong while the offense and the pen both struggled.
Rollins, Howard, Burrell and Victorino all had very weak Augusts. Howard hit 213/328/463 and Burrell 181/275/343. Utley got hot at the end of the month, going 8-for-his-last-17 to end August, but he struggled most of the month as well. The Phils don’t have much of a chance unless Burrell, Howard and Rollins hit better in August than they did in September.
Romero, Madson, Durbin and Lidge have been the core of the Phillies’ bullpen. Romero has been pretty solid all year long, but Madson’s ERA is near five since the All-Star break. Durbin has given the Phils a ton this year, but he’s been charged with runs in three of his last four outings. In those four appearances he’s allowed seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings (18.90 ERA). He allowed two home runs over his first 56 appearances of the season and has allowed two in his last four. Even Lidge, who’s also had a great season, has shown some cracks. He threw to a 1.13 ERA before the break and has thrown to a 4.58 ERA with a 1.36 ratio since.
Overall, the Phils’ pen helped them win a huge number of games early in the season. They aren’t helping them win many now. The Phils are either going to need that core of Romero, Madson, Durbin and Lidge to do the job they’ve done all year, which seems highly unlikely given how effective they were early and how many innings they’ve thrown, or get good bullpen innings from other sources. The mostly likely sources of good bullpen innings for the Phils down the stretch would be Condrey, Eyre and Seanez — all three have been good for the Phils this season, but haven’t seen nearly the pressure situations that Romero, Madson, Durbin and Lidge have faced.
6. Who do you predict will be the “sleeper MVP” of September for the Phils? In other words, who will give a surprising contribution down the
stretch?
He would hardly be a sleeper, but Howard is the guy that can carry the team by himself. Rollins, Utley and Burrell can all get silly hot, but none of that trio can put the team on his shoulders the way Howard can. He’s had some monster months in his career, the best of which was probably August of 2006. In that month he hit 14 home runs and had 41 RBI.
This year he’s been about as bad as you can be if you’re going to lead your league in home runs and RBI.
Assuming Howard doesn’t count as a sleeper, I’d go with Werth. He’s had the best year of his career and comes off an August in which he hit 313/433/639 playing regularly.
7. Ninth inning, two outs, man on third, tie ballgame. What Phillie do you want at the plate?
Utley.
8. Same situation as above, but the Mets are hitting. Who would you least like to see batting for the Mets?
Reyes. It’s close between him and Wright, but Reyes always seems to kills us. Wright strikes out more and the possibility that Reyes’ speed helps him beat out an infield hit makes him pretty scary in that situation.
Thanks again to Erik for providing his take on the Phillies. Be sure to check out Phillies Flow for more info on that pesky team down I-95.
Ryan Church : Xavier Nady
A few years ago, the Mets made a very unpopular trade during the offseason, trading one outfielder for another. The trade seemed illogical, nonsensical, and a complete mis-read of the market.
After all, the Mets swapped a Gold Glove centerfielder — Mike Cameron — to the Padres in return for an unknown corner outfielder, at a time when it seemed like half the league was in dire need of a centerfielder. Heck, it was the same offseason that journeyman Gary Mathews Jr. netted himself a five-year, $50M payday.
Everyone said that Omar Minaya was an idiot for dealing away the popular Cameron for some guy named Xavier Nady. Nady, after all, wasn’t even a fourth outfielder for San Diego — he was a converted third baseman with a suspect glove and an inability to hit righthanders. The deal was universally panned by every respected news authority.
Somehow, Nady beat out Victor Diaz for the starting rightfield spot. Somehow, Nady hit 14 homers in half a season, and became not only a formidable force in the lineup but also a fan favorite. And when the young slugger was shipped to Pittsburgh for Roberto Hernandez (and some throw-in named Oliver Perez), people were again up in arms over a Nady trade — only this time they said the Mets were crazy for trading him away. Ironically, Omar was correct in the initial Nady deal, as well as the second Nady deal. In Omar We Trust.
Once again, Minaya made a universally unpopular move in a trade of two outfielders. This time, it was Lastings Milledge going to Washington for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Never mind that it’s rare for a non-MLB player to fetch two legitimate MLB starters — the Nationals stink, right? Milledge will run and hit circles around both of those scrubs.
Or will he?
Like Nady, Church is coming in as a result of an extremely unpopular deal. Like Nady, Mets fans barely heard of Church before the trade. Like Nady, Church comes in with a reputation as one who can’t hit pitchers who throw from a particular side. Like Nady, the expectations are low — everyone’s expecting this deal to look like a really bad one on Omar Minaya’s resume.
And with a little luck, like Nady, Ryan Church will silence the critics, and be a guy that no one wants to see leave at the trading deadline.
Top Hitter in a Pinch
In 2007, Ruben Gotay led the Mets with 15 pinch-hits. The next-closest compiler was Marlon Anderson with 10. Gotay also led all Mets pinch-hitters with 19 total bases.
Overall — meaning as a regular, as a pinch-hitter, etc. — Gotay was second on the team (to Anderson) in batting average with runners in scoring position, smacking the ball safely to the tune of .356.
Gotay also led all Mets last year in the “close and late” category, batting .349 in those situations (he edged out David Wright by 3 percentage points).
Strange, isn’t it, that Ruben had to fight for a job this spring?
Stranger still, that Ruben Gotay was waived and is now a member of the Atlanta Braves.
Strange Moves
The 25-man roster has been established, and one must wonder what went into the final decisions — and whether the spring training game performances had any effect.
There were only a few open spots, and one huge question mark. The 13th position player, the 12th pitcher, and the 5th starter.
Brady Clark won the lucky 13th positional spot, barely edging out the .210-slugging Fernando Tatis and earning himsel a place on the bench right next to the water cooler. I’m 100% on board with this decision, but only because Ruben Gotay is now a Brave. Had Gotay still been Mets property, I might have some problem with Clark getting the nod, but bygones are bygones.
Miraculously, Mighty Joe Smith was handed the final bullpen spot. Notice I stated “handed” and not “earned”. Ricardo Rincon, Nelson Figueroa, and Steven Register all outpitched Smith this spring. Heck, even Nate Field and Joselo Diaz looked better. But Smith got the spot. I don’t get it — and I LOVE Joe Smith, but it seemed to me that it would make more sense to option Smith down and hold on to one of the aforementioned — particularly Register, who had to be sent back to Colorado, or Rincon, who I feel is this year’s J.C. Romero.
Finally, there is the utterly illogical handout of the #5 spot in the rotation to Mike Pelfrey. Like Smith, I love Big Mike and want to see him do well — but I’m not wearing rose-tinted glasses when I watch him. He still doesn’t have an off-speed pitch, and in fact doesn’t have much of a second pitch. El Duque needed to go to the DL and he did, and Pelf needed to go back to AAA to hone his game. The Mets could have slotted Jorge Sosa into the role, and then kept Figueroa, Rincon, or Register. Or, they could have given Figueroa a shot at the fifth spot. Again, not understanding why they wouldn’t take advantage of the opportunity to option Pelfrey.
We could say, aw, heck, what’s the big deal about the last three scrubs on the roster? But remember the Mets lost first place by one game in 2007 — so every man counts.
Hopefully, I have no idea what I’m talking about, and everything will work out just fine.
Goodbye Gotay
It’s not bad enough the Mets gave up on Ruben Gotay … but to make it worse, the hated Atlanta Braves were the team that claimed him off waivers.
Early on, it looked like Gotay might win a job on the Mets roster, but the ankle injury he suffered completely demolished his chances. The 25-year-old will join the Braves, though I can’t figure out how he fits in over there. Bobby Cox already has Kelly Johnson starting at 2B and likely playing 140-150 games at the position, with Martin Prado backing up. Prado hit well this spring (.338), as did fellow utility infielder Brent Lillibridge (.348). Presumably, one of them will start the season in the minors — though I wouldn’t want to be the informant.
What further bothers me is that the Braves do a really good job of evaluating young and “on the cusp” talent — and they’re obviously very high on Gotay’s skills. While I doubt Ruben will be much more than a utility guy and pinch-hitter, I would have preferred to see him not getting playing time with the Mets than not getting playing time with the Braves.
One last issue that bugs me comes from Willie Randolph, who said this about Fernando Tatis in a NY Post article:
“Tatis gives you more versatility,” Willie Randolph said Wednesday. “He played winter ball, so he’s in great shape. I’m not going to hold that [arrival] against him. If we feel like he can help us, then we’ll see.”
So … in other words, Willie isn’t going to hold Tatis’ late arrival to camp (due to visa problems) against him, but he IS going to hold Gotay’s ankle injury against Ruben. Because really, what’s the difference?
Gotay only hit .229 in a measly 17 ABs but he did post a .435 OBP and .529 SLG in his short trial, while playing acceptable defense at three infield positions. Tatis, on the other hand, has hit .212 with a .229 OBP and .364 SLG in twice as many at-bats. He also played adequately in the field, though his skills in LF look a little scary … and we only saw him play a few innings at 1B. Of course, there’s always the possibility that Tatis doesn’t make the team either, but I have a feeling Brady Clark is the next player cut.
In other news, Steven Register was welcomed back by the Colorado Rockies with open arms. They were only too happy to pay $25,000 for the private instruction services provided by Rick Peterson.
Brady Clark or Fernando Tatis
The Mets’ 25th man is down to Brady Clark and Fernando Tatis.
Clark is a much better outfielder and can play all three outfield positions. He’s a good singles hitter with not much power, and he runs fairly well. He strikes out more than he used to, but all in all at a less frequent rate than most batters — he’s a contact hitter and someone who can reliably execute the hit and run and drop down a bunt.
Tatis is only an okay outfielder, and is limited to the corner spots, but can also play 3B, 2B, and 1B. He once had a 34-HR season but that was a “Brady Anderson” year — he’s really more of gap hitter. His speed on the bases is somewhere between average and above-average. He’ll strike out a lot and probably won’t take too many walks.
Tough call.
On the one hand, Clark is an older, righthanded-hitting version of Angel Pagan, so once Moises Alou returns, he’s kind of redundant. On the other hand, Tatis is basically the same player as Damion Easley.
I get the feeling the Mets will lean toward Tatis, partially because they think he’s going to re-discover his homerun power, and partially for his versatility.
Either way, Ruben Gotay gets the short end of the stick.
A Pirate Pitcher
During the first week of February, I suggested that the Mets give Sean Burnett a flyer, considering that they had plenty of room on the 40-man roster, he was a low-risk, high-reward guy, and would come cheap. At the time, I had this crazy notion that the Mets might need an extra starter — just in case one of El Duque’s body parts acted up and/or something else unexpected occurred.
Once a promising young starter for the Pirates, Burnett suffered a serious elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery and knocked him out for the better part of two seasons. ARight before spring training, the Bucs DFA’d him, but he cleared waivers and stayed on with Pittsburgh.
Burnett put up a strong performance in winter ball, did well in the Pirates’ minicamp, and has had a stellar spring. However, he is fighting for the Bucs’ last bullpen spot and there’s a good chance he won’t make the cut.
So here we are, the Mets DO need another starter, and they may have a second chance to acquire Burnett for next to nothing. He may not be a better option than Nelson Figueroa or Jorge Sosa right now, but take a look at the lack of depth waiting in AAA and you tell me whether it makes sense to stockpile some arms like his.
Who knows, maybe the Bucs will add Xavier Nady to the trade as a throw-in.
Justin Huber Traded
The Royals have traded Justin Huber — but not to the Mets.
Rather, Huber was sent to the San Diego Padres for a player to be named later. Huber was out of options and wasn’t part of KC’s 2008 plans.
Yes, it was a longshot for Huber to return to the Mets organization, but he appeared to be a decent fit. After all, don’t the Mets need a RH-hitting first baseman / outfielder / backup catcher? Or am I missing something?
In truth, Huber hasn’t caught since 2004, so he wouldn’t be a viable option compared to Raul Casanova. And his career .204 average isn’t exactly awe-inspiring. But we Mets fans tend to get attached to the youngins’ that come up through the organization, and as a result we sometimes look past reality in our assessments. Heck, a part of me is wondering why Preston Wilson and Grant Roberts aren’t in camp.
Billy Wagner on Michael Kay
Yesterday marked the first appearance of Billy Wagner on The Michael Kay Show on 1050 ESPN Radio — and it won’t be the last.
Wagner will have a regular segment on the show, and I’m having a hard time figuring out how the Mets are OK with this.
As Adam Rubin noted:
“This much is guaranteed: Mets PR guru Jay Horwitz is going to have a weekly coronary, because Billy Wagner will be a weekly guest expert on ESPN radio 1050 AM.”
If you missed yesterday’s segment, you can hear it here.
Billy sort of sounds like a little kid on a farm — in a good way — with his high-pitched voice and slight southern drawl. While he didn’t say anything incredibly controversial, he definitely said a few things that could possibly be misconstrued or twisted by someone hell-bent on stirring up the Mets clubhouse. For example, when asked about “the collapse”, Wags didn’t blame anyone, but he did infer that David Wright and Jose Reyes weren’t making the plays in the field and/or weren’t focused, and that “the team could see it coming.”
Anyone else see Wagner’s regular appearance on 1050 as an accident waiting to happen? Those who regularly listen to Michael Kay might be thinking, “uh oh, another Tiki Barber”.
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