Mets Today

If you haven’t heard, Ambiorix Burgos was arrested for beating his girlfriend at a hotel near Shea Stadium on Monday night.

Since he was in the area, it’s assumed that Burgos was healthy enough to join the Mets sometime this month and audition for the 2009 closer’s role. After all, if he’s anywhere near the triple-digit MPH on his fastball — he hit 100 with ease before Tommy John surgery — you’d have to think he’d be among the top internal candidates to replace Billy Wagner next season.

However, the arrest — coupled with the graphic description provided by the Daily News — will not sit well with the squeaky-clean image the Wilpons try to set for their ballclub. If the front office was unhappy with Paul LoDuca’s chasing after teeny boppers, they must be fuming over this incident. And well they should — a 6′3″, 244-lb. professional athlete should be keeping his paws (and teeth) off the opposite sex.

The wrong thing to do, however, would be to release or trade Burgos. The right thing would be for the Mets to foot the bill for counseling and an anger-management program. Getting Burgos to publicly apologize is an obvious move, and should be coupled with “strongly suggesting” that Burgos make a significant donation to an organization for battered women. These are the bare minimum of actions to take place before Burgos can consider playing for the Mets again.

Hopefully, Burgos can get his personal issues straightened out. If the Mets and their fans can forgive Guillermo Mota for taking PEDs and Paul LoDuca for cheating on his wife, perhaps they can also, eventually, welcome back Burgos. But he has a long road ahead of him before that can happen. Even if it turns out — when we get the whole story — that he is in some way not guilty, the damage has been done. The court of public opinion is much more influential in cases like this, and affects a person for a much longer term — just ask Wally Backman.

A recent MetsBlog poll revealed that 80% of Mets fans would choose Luis Ayala to be the closer in place of Billy Wagner — who we’ve now discovered is out for the year, and then some.

Of course, that was a poll taken TODAY. We’ll see what the teeming millions (er, thousands) feel about Ayala a week from now.

Personally, this news is not shocking — based on the limited info we had, it sounded to me like Wags’ return was a longshot — but it does make me worry about the ninth inning of close games.

But why should I be so worried? After all, Ayala has converted five of six save opportunities, and is sporting a svelte 2.70 ERA since coming to the Mets. And behind him, we have another resurrection, Brian Stokes, who in 23 IP has a 1.09 WHIP and 2.35 ERA.

Perhaps I’m just a worry wart.

Or perhaps I’m concerned about the day Ayala and Stokes fall back to Earth — those “humans” are frightenting. You know, the Ayala who was 1-8 with a 5.77 ERA in 62 previous games with the Nationals, and the Stokes who had a 7.07 ERA in 59 games with the Rays last year. Yes, it’s possible for people to come off the scrap heap and do well. But THIS well? Color me pessimistic.

But I’ll try to stay positive and pretend this Ayala/Stokes thing is for real, and move on from there. If we subscribe to the idea that the recent success of Ayala and Stokes means continued success through the end of September, we must also believe that the recent failures of Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, and Scott Schoeneweis will also continue. And please, don’t bring up the last 26.2 innings of shutout ball from the bullpen before taking a look at the scores of those games — it’s much easier to pitch when there is a cushion, or when you’re down by several runs. Don’t tell me you trust any of the aforementioned four guys in a one-run or tie ballgame.

That said, who is there to use in the sixth and seventh, to bridge the gap to Stokes and Ayala, in a one-run ballgame in the last two weeks of the season? In the playoffs? Shouldn’t we be auditioning some of those extra arms on the roster, right now?

For instance, in what situation will we see Bobby Parnell? A seven-run lead in the ninth against the Brewers apparently wasn’t enough cushion to take a gander at this particular “untouchable”. Down six runs against the Phillies also wasn’t a good time — not even to see him face one batter. Perhaps if the Mets can go ahead by 15 against the Nationals, we’ll see Parnell warm up in the ‘pen. But then, we won’t know if he can handle an IMPORTANT situation.

How soon we forget Philip Humber, who was treated with kid gloves all last September, then was needed to pitch the game of his life in the most important game of the year. Not too much pressure, eh? Maybe he would have had half a chance had he gotten his feet wet earlier in the month.

And what happened to Eddie Kunz, another one of the “untouchables”? He was brought up here, given the Aaron Sele treatment, and not surprisingly stunk up the joint. This kid is supposed to have the “mentality to be a closer”, and “filthy stuff” — so when are we going to see him given the chance to prove it? I don’t mean he has to close, but let’s at least get him back on the active roster and put him into some 6th-inning situations — and not once every ten days.

Similarly, we have yet to see Al Reyes — though I imagine he’s still recovering from a shoulder injury, so we’ll be patient on that one. At least we did get to see Ricardo Rincon, who was extraordinary in his first crack at retiring lefties. I’ll take him over the Scho in a tough spot against a LH batter right now.

In his 18 lackluster appearances, Carlos Muniz may have already proven he’s not the answer (this year) — but Omar Minaya still compares him to a young Chad Cordero. But will he get the ball enough to make good on that comparison?

The Billy Wagner news doesn’t seem so disastrous right now because the offense (Carlos Delgado) has been outstanding lately, and scoring enough runs to make the latter innings less important. But the offensive ride may not last, and what happens then? Will there be one or two relief pitchers who can keep things tight in the last week of the season? We won’t know who those men are unless they’re given the ball a few times now — this week.

Let’s — for once — learn something from last year.

It was brought to my attention that my own research suggests that the Phillies’ bullpen should be more worn out than the Mets’. Yet, the Phillies relievers continue to outperform those wearing orange and blue — as well as every other team in the NL.

So what gives? Do the numbers lie? My theory incorrect?

Let’s look at this in further detail and try to figure this out, comparing the two teams head to head.

Mets Relief - August 27, 2008

Phillies Relief - August 27, 2008

From the above, it’s true that the Phillies top seven most-frequently used relievers have accounted for 94% of the total relief innings pitched by the team. The “top seven” Mets relievers, in contrast, have accounted for only 83%.

There are a few flaws with my “top seven” theory, and some things jump out. First being, the fact that one of the Mets’ “top seven” — Jorge Sosa — hasn’t been on the team since May. The second is the number of appearances, which aren’t addressed by my percentage of innings.

The Phillies have only two people who have appeared in more than 60 games. In comparison, the Mets have four, with two of them about to hit 70. So while the Phillies’ top relievers have carried most of the innings load, they haven’t appeared as frequently.

Another issue is the 16 more relief innings that the Mets have had to cover — that’s nearly the equivalent of two full games. So the Mets relievers are getting into more games, and pitching more innings.

Something else strikes me, which goes hand-in-hand with the frequency factor. Looking at the Phillies’ relievers, there are three pitchers with less innings pitched than appearances. One of them is their closer Brad Lidge, but we know he’s not a “matchup” guy. So in essence, the Phillies use only two guys for matchups — J.C. Romero and Tom Gordon (who is currently on the DL). And actually, Gordon wasn’t really a ROOGY, but more of a setup man — he threw at least one inning in nearly all of his appearances.

Compare that to the Mets, who have used Feliciano, Smith, Schoeneweis extensively as “one out guys”, and began using Duaner Sanchez similarly of late. On the one hand, you’d think that pitching to only one batter shouldn’t be such a toll on their arm and body. But on the other hand, they’ve had to warm up in the bullpen for each of their appearances, plus how many other times when they didn’t get into a game? Is it possible that all those pitches thrown in the bullpen take just as much, if not more, of a toll on the human body? Understand that pitchers often “get up” several times in a ballgame. Is anyone counting how many pitches each reliever is throwing — pregame + bullpen + game + between-innings warmups? Every one of those pitches takes something out of a pitcher’s body.

Further, Jerry Manuel made a big deal about “establishing roles” in the bullpen. Looking at the numbers — and watching the games — I’m not sure I recognize a pattern that would suggest roles, other than Billy Wagner as the closer. With Wagner now out, and a month of the season left, all roles go out the window — it’s all hands on deck. Newsflash: it’s been a roleless, “all hands on deck” bullpen since May.

What makes things scarier is that Manuel has publicly stated several times that he will be “going with the hot hand” out of the bullpen. I don’t need to mention that this strategy used to be employed by Willie Randolph, who learned it from Joe Torre. What I do need to mention is that it makes zero sense. HITTERS go on hot streaks — not pitchers. The only time pitchers go into “slumps” is when they are overused and fatigued. So by “going with the hot hand” you are effectively creating the “slump”.

With first place — and his job — on the line, Jerry Manuel has begun managing out of fear. If Smith can’t get a batter out, Schoeneweis comes in. If Scho doesn’t get an out, Feliciano comes in. If Feliciano gets an out, he stays in until someone gets a hit. And so on. This is not a strategy, and certainly not “management”. It’s panic.

Unfortunately, bullpen management is not something that you can suddenly start to do in the last 30 games of the year — it is something that begins on Opening Day. While I still think the Phils are due for a bullpen collapse in September, it appears that, so far, Charlie Manuel’s Phillies have managed their bullpen arms for the long haul, while the Willie Randolph/Jerry Manuel Mets have put the “pedal to the metal” since the beginning. As we move into September, when “every game counts”, the Mets just may push that pedal through the floorboard, snap the accelerator cable, and thereby stop the engine.

After last year’s “collapse”, we did something rare here at MetsToday: a statistical analysis. Yes, even an old school guy like me will once in a while check the numbers (though it gives me a headache).

For those who weren’t here, or don’t remember, we took a hard look at the Mets’ 2007 bullpen, then compared it to those of other top teams in the NL. Go ahead and re-read those posts, so you understand what’s going on with relief pitching in MLB lately. If you don’t have the time, here’s the gist:

To reiterate, establishing specific people with bullpen roles and expecting them to fulfill those roles from game 1 through 162 is suicide. There are simply too many innings to cover over that span, which require at minimum 9-10 arms that can share the load. The teams that stockpile the highest-quality arms — and/or can squeeze the most innings out of their starters — will be less susceptible to breakdowns in the last weeks of the season.

So, what did the 2008 Mets management learn from last year?

Nothing.

Because here we are at game 122, and the Mets have 4 pitchers among the top 20 in the NL in appearances. No other team has more than 2. The “bullpen roles” concept was used by Willie Randolph last year, but everyone forgot that when current savior Jerry Manuel announced that everyone in the bullpen would have roles. Everyone also forgot what a BAD IDEA it is to have set roles in the bullpen — regardless of how the pitchers themselves feel about it.

Here is a breakdown of the bullpen staff:

Mets Relief 2008

Looking at the above, you can see that six pitchers have accounted for 303 of the team’s 381 relief innings — which comes to 80% of the workload. That’s alarming, considering that last season, only five teams had SEVEN pitchers account for that percentage of relief innings.

Maybe that didn’t come out clearly, so I’ll re-state it: Most teams don’t put that kind of workload on SEVEN pitchers, much less six.

This is easier to see if you refer back to this table from last year:

Bullpen Comparison: Top Seven

Forget anyone’s “theories” as to why the Mets bullpen is suddenly a train wreck; a simple look at the numbers makes it as plain as day: the relievers are grossly overworked. Yet we keep hearing nonsense from radio jockeys, bloggers, journalists, other pundits, and Jerry Manuel himself — no one can seem to understand why the relief corps is having so much trouble lately. It’s as if people think Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Smith, and Sanchez are in some sort of unexplainable, mystical “slump”, or that they “stink”.

As much as the sabermetricians would like to believe that baseball is all about the numbers, there’s something called the human element that comes into play. And six human beings, without the advantage of HGH, steroids, or other PEDs, cannot pitch at a consistently high level under this stress.

To reiterate: the Mets NEEDED more arms to share the load. There needed to be more shuttling back and forth of guys like Claudio Vargas, Carlos Muniz, Brian Stokes, Willie Collazo, etc., to and from AAA, and USED when they were with the big club (it’s likely too late now to fix the situation). But since management remains enamored with this “bullpen roles” concept, we see the same five guys pitch every single game.

How they’ll make it through September remains to be seen.

Much has been made about the inefficiencies of the Mets bullpen this year. In particular, the number that keeps getting thrown out there is 20 blown saves — 13 of which resulted in losses.

I have a brilliant idea, and it doesn’t require the acquisition of a new pitcher:
(more…)

Mets fans are up in arms with the idea that Brian Stokes, rather than Jonathan Niese, will be spot starting this Saturday against the Florida Marlins. After all, isn’t Niese the best pitching prospect in the organization? Isn’t he so fantabulous that he was deemed an “untouchable”? Isn’t it true that the Mets’ refusal to part with Niese is the reason Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay, nor Ken Griffey are playing left field at Shea this weekend?

So why not Niese?

Mainly because this is a “spot start”. Meaning, whoever is chosen to start on Saturday will be sent right back down to the minors after the game. That means, even if Niese were to come up and pitch a no-hitter, he’d still be on his way back to JFK, taking the first flight back to New Orleans.

Therefore, if the Mets bring up Niese, they’ll burn up one of his options by sending him back down. If I understand the option rule correctly, the Mets would be better off waiting until later in the season — i.e., September — to call up Niese, because once the rosters expand to 40, there will be no reason to “option” him back down. That means they can save the option for 2009, and still have options in 2010 and 2011. Remember the kid is only 21 years old, and there’s no guarantee he’ll make the team next year — so again, the options become valuable.

Now, there is a possibility that the starter on Saturday is impressive enough to stay on the team. But, it would not be as a starter, but rather as a long reliever. The Mets do not want Jon Niese hanging around in the bullpen waiting for a blowout — they want him taking the ball every fifth day. So it make sense to bring Stokes, who was a reliever until this year.

There is another, fairly remote reason the Mets aren’t bringing up Niese for the start. If by chance the Mets decide they want to make a trade in the next few weeks, anyone they want to deal away who is on the 40-man roster would have to first pass through waivers. Minor leaguers not on the 40-man — such as Niese — do not have to go through the process. However, if Niese is added to the 40-man, and the Mets wanted to trade him, he would have to first be waived (and he wouldn’t make it through). I doubt very very highly that the Mets are shopping Niese, but by keeping him down, they retain flexibility.

Finally, there is this: Saturday’s game is extremely important. The Mets and Marlins are fighting for first place, there will be a huge, loud crowd, and the Fish can flat-out rake. Last year, the Mets hid Philip Humber in the bullpen (until it was too late) because they didn’t think he was emotionally ready to handle the pressure of a big game in New York City in the middle of a pennant race. Similarly, the Mets would prefer to give Niese a start against, say, the Nationals, to get his feet wet.

So no Jon Niese this weekend. You’ll have to get your “fix” by viewing pictures of Jonathan Niese from spring training.

When the trade deadline came and went without the Mets making even a minor move to improve the team, the explanation was that they were not going to trade a few prospects for “rental” players.

Never mind that “rental” Ken Griffey would have come dirt cheap, nor that Manny Ramirez would have been worth any package the Mets had to offer. And never mind that the only trade Omar Minaya was referring to by that excuse was the outrageous demands by the Mariners for Raul Ibanez.

Put all that aside for a moment, and pretend that the Mets really didn’t make a move because they believe that the youngsters in the organization have a future not worth mortgaging for a key veteran.

If that indeed is the case, then we should EXPECT to see Jonathan Niese on the big league roster before the end of the season. Moreover, we should expect to see Niese make key starts down the stretch. After all, he isn’t Philip Humber, who was brought up merely so he could see the Empire State Building and taste a real New York bagel. The Mets have positioned Niese as the top pitching prospect in their organization, and identified him as an “untouchable”. If he’s all that, then he has to be summoned from the minors to help the big club — now.

The Mets acknowledge as much, and there were hints that he’d make his Major League debut this weekend. However, that plan was put on the shelf, and instead we’ll see re-tread Claudio Vargas make a start against the Marlins. The “logic” behind this decision is that the Marlins have a righty-heavy lineup, led by Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Josh Willingham, and new Mets killer Cody Ross.

There’s just one little problem with that logic: the Marlins are hitting .235 against lefthanded pitchers this season — a full 20 points below their total average against all pitchers. Of their 543 runs and 155 homers this season, they’ve scored only 138 and hit only 37 four-baggers against southpaws. So either the Mets need to hire someone to check the stat sheets, or they’re full of baloney.

Personally, I don’t think Niese is ready for big-league action. But the Mets’ decision to hold the status quo through July 31 established that Niese would be fast-tracked to MLB as soon as possible. So let’s see it happen.

What’s that saying? One man’s junk is another’s treasure?

The Mets are desperate for arms — for both the bullpen and the starting rotation. The relievers are out of gas and ineffective, and the Mets will have to plan for absences by John Maine and Pedro Martinez. I hope I’m wrong, but my gut tells me that Pedro will be back on the DL shortly, and that Maine will have problems with his shoulder for the rest of the season.

So let’s take a look at the scrap heap.

Freddy Garcia
He’s a free agent and scheduled to be auditioning on August 5th. If I’m the Mets, I don’t wait — I roll the dice, sign him today, sight unseen, send him to the minors, and hope for the best. I’d give him two years, in fact, so there’s backup depth for ‘09.

Livan Hernandez
Livan was DFA’d by the Twins yesterday after posting a 5.48 ERA. You know what? He’s leaving the Twins with a 10-8 record. How many Mets have 10 wins? Um, none. Yes, he was hit hard in the AL, but he is fine as a #5 in the NL. Pick him up, put him in AAA, and have him ready when Pedro or Maine goes down. At worst, you have someone as a backup in case Jon Niese isn’t the Sandy Koufax the Mets keep telling us that he is.

Matt Clement
The Cardinals finally gave up on Clement, who decided he wasn’t progressing quickly enough. Chances are, he won’t help this year, but you never know. Sign him to a contract through 2009, send him to Port St. Lucie, and tell him to take all the time he needs. If he can’t make it back to MLB this year, you have a possibility for ‘09 (see Freddy Garcia). Who knows, he might get back just enough velocity and endurance to be a middle reliever in September.

By the way, the Red Sox just signed Joe Borowski to a minor league deal. I suggested that the Mets pick up the Bayonne Bullet and put him in AAA a month ago, so send that idea to the circular file.

Oh, and don’t get me wrong — the Mets should, and will have to, give the kids a shot now. Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz, Bobby Parnell (a.k.a., “The Untouchables”), and anyone else down on the farm should be promoted, pronto. My suggestion is to promote the youth and pick up these junky veterans to take their places in the minors — this way there’s a backup plan in case the rooks aren’t quite ready. It’s always a good idea to hedge your bets. Plus, I’m of the belief that a big league bullpen, in this day and age, requires a minimum of 10 pitchers who appear in at least 10 games to get through a season (see bullpen articles ONE and TWO. The Mets have only 8 relievers who have appeared in at least 10 games to this point.

Please, don’t tease me.

Adam Rubin wrote in his pregame blog yesterday:

Manuel plans to stay away from Aaron Heilman for a second straight game today, after Heilman tossed three innings Saturday. Told he could now use Heilman as a starter, Manuel said he told Heilman the very same thing.

Then, in Rubin’s postgame he wrote:

Jerry Manuel said Aaron Heilman would have pitched the eighth, rather than Joe Smith and Scott Schoeneweis, who combined to allow five runs. But Heilman was unavailable after tossing three innings Saturday. (By the way, we noted before the game that Manuel did tell Heilman he?s now stretched out to be a starter. But there?s zero chance of that actually happening.)

Here at MetsToday we’ve been waiting three years for Heilman to get another shot at starting. In fact, part of the impetus of this blog was to voice support for Aaron in a starting role. So if this is just hot air from Rubin, I’ll find a way to get credentialed to a game and put salt in Rubin’s coffee in the press box. That’s not a threat, but a PROMISE!

Seriously though, if John Maine’s shoulder turns out to be an issue (it will), now is as good a time as any to give Heilman a shot at starting. Of course, the Mets would need to find a late-inning reliever to fill Aaron’s role in the bullpen. Hasn’t Matt Wise faked an injury long enough?

The odds are long, particularly since Jon Niese was promoted to AAA New Orleans. That is a sure sign that 1) Niese won’t be traded; and 2) the Mets plan to promote him to the bigs if necessary.

There is a possibility that Niese, who has been pitching well in AA, could suffer a temporary setback by facing better hitters at the AAA level. If the Mets were serious about trading him, they wouldn’t have moved him to a higher level, where his weaknesses might be exposed. Or, maybe they’re banking on Niese surprising AAA hitters who haven’t seen him before and hope to get a lights-out start before the July 31 deadline to raise his value (his first AAA start will be today). Hard to tell, but my guess is that if Maine’s MRI shows anything of concern, Niese really will be untouchable.

Who knows though … maybe the Mets will pull off a deal for an outfielder and a reliever, and are serious about moving Heilman to the rotation — a role that better suits his personality, in my humble opinion.

As mentioned more than a few times this season on MetsToday, John Maine has a minor mechanical flaw in his delivery that is causing his command to be off. If he keeps it up, he’ll have more issues than not throwing strikes — he’ll blow out his shoulder.

Lee Mazzilli finally mentioned the flaw on SNY, for everyone to see. Maine is opening up his front shoulder too early, causing his right arm to lag behind, and his hand to get to the side or under the ball. In turn, his release point is also off — generally a little higher than normal. All this means that he is not putting his pitches where he wants them — the tipoff is seeing his fastball and changeup fly up an in to righthanders / up and away to lefties.

However, it is not as simple as telling John to keep his front shoulder closed. I’ve been teaching pitching mechanics for almost 20 years, and know that the command being off, and the front shoulder flying open, are symptoms. Usually, a symptom like that is caused by something else not as noticeable in the delivery — something happening earlier in the motion. It can be as simple as a tilt of the head, placement of the foot on the rubber, or in John’s case, where he’s breaking his hands.

Since joining the Mets, this opening of his front shoulder has been occurring on and off. Usually, Maine is able to get a good release point in spite of it — but he’s really working against himself. It all starts with where he brings his hands at the start of the leg lift — up behind his right shoulder, next to his ear.

Stand in front of a mirror, and put your hands together in front of you. Now move them up behind your right ear. Look at your left shoulder — what did it do? It turned to the right; simple biomechanics. Now if you buy into the idea that “every action results in an equal and opposite reaction”, then that turning of the shoulder is going to result in the opposite: a turning out of the shoulder.

If you watch John Maine pitch — and it’s most noticeable from the stretch — you see his hands go back behind his ear during the leg lift, causing the left shoulder to turn toward second base. Then, when he comes out of his lift, to begin his stride, the front shoulder is already starting to open up (see picture at top of the article) — the previous over-rotation is causing an equal and opposite over-rotation.

The picture to the right is an example of John over-rotating the front shoulder — see how he is “carrying” the ball almost behind him? Look where the front/left shoulder is pointing — not straight toward home but behind a righthanded hitter. To compensate for being that “closed”, the shoulders over-rotate to “open”, causing the arm to drag. I wish I had better pictures to explain, or access to video to show, but MLB has a thing about posting their property. As it is I’m sure someone will email me with a “cease an desist”. But it’s all to help Johnny Maine!

What John can do — and probably has done in the past — is adjust where his hands go up. He can probably try stopping his hands once they reach shoulder level, or better yet, bring his hands up closer to the middle of his body, toward his chin for example, to keep that front shoulder from over-rotating. This picture to the left shows a decent place where he has brought his hands in the past. Lately, he’s been taking them higher and further back / toward centerfield.

This can be fixed in about 10 minutes — with no Jacket required.