Garland, Sheets Off the Table
Remove the garland from the Christmas tree, and get Lazy Mary to pull the sheets from her bed.
A little late on this, but reporting it so you can post your comments — Ben Sheets agreed to a one-year, $10M deal with the Oakland Athletics, and Jon Garland signed a one-year, $4.7M deal with the San Diego Padres.
As mentioned in the previous post, Sheets + Oakland makes a lot of sense for both parties.
Garland, I imagine, preferred to be on the Left Coast, so it’s possible the Mets were never a possibility considering their Right Coast locale. Additionally, he has a nice opportunity to hurl a stress-free year in a huge pitcher’s park — a good formula for boosting his value when he becomes a free agent again next winter.
Additionally, former Cub prospect Rich Hill signed a minor-league deal with the Cardinals. The lefthander had a breakout season in 2007, then forgot how to throw strikes. This is a very under-the-radar move that could very well turn out wonderful for St. Louis. Can’t you just see Hill suddenly finding himself under the tutelage of Dave Duncan?
In other belated reporting, you may or may not have heard that the Phillies signed Jose Contreras to a cheap one-year deal. I don’t think the Mets were ever a player for his services, and I don’t believe he would’ve been a good idea. Most reports speculate that Contreras will begin 2010 in the Philly bullpen.
Finally, the latest buzz is that Jarrod Washburn is leaning toward the Twins and Mariners.
So, who’s left on the open market for the rotation? Looks to me like Braden Looper, John Smoltz, and Pedro Martinez are the best of the best. Ouch. In other words, Omar Minaya best be burning the phone lines talking trade with other GMs to find another arm or two.
The Mets 2010 Starting Rotation
NY Sports Day reported this from the “21 Days of Clemente”, where Omar Minaya was a special guest:
The GM was asked his opinion of the 2010 Mets starting rotation. He quickly answered, “[Johan] Santana, [Mike] Pelfrey, [John] Maine, [Oliver] Perez , [Jonathon] Niese and possibly a free agent.”
Though it wasn’t an official press event, and there is still time for the Mets to upgrade their rotation, seeing that in print is something of a splash of cold water in the face.
Think about it: the Mets’ starting rotation currently consists of four pitchers coming off injuries and/or surgery. One of their backup plans — Fernando Nieve — is also recovering from a major injury and surgery.
This may not seem like a big deal until you look back to the past few years, and remember the pitchers coming off injury that the Mets counted on. For example: Duaner Sanchez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez, Scott Schoeneweis, Dave Williams, and Pedro Martinez. In fact, the only pitcher that comes to mind who had “minor surgery” and pitched effectively the next season was Aaron Heilman (elbow scoped after the 2006 season). Not a good history, and history is supposed to shed light on the future.
Keeping a rotation intact through an MLB season is enough of a crapshoot when you begin with relatively healthy arms, but in the Mets case, they’re counting on 4 or 5 men to a) come back from surgery on schedule; b) come back at 100%; c) return to their form prior to the injury; d) avoid any setbacks; and e) keep their stamina through a 162-game schedule.
Anyone else have doubts?
Mets Still Need Pitching
While the Mets and their fans sit around waiting for Jason Bay and Bengie Molina to make up their minds, there is still the little matter of the pitching staff.
For those unaware, injuries were not the reason the Mets had their worst season since 2003. Neither was it the lack of power. Sure, those obvious issues had something to do with it, but the #1 reason the Mets never had a snowball’s chance in Hades of making the postseason was because Read more
Blame the Catchers
The blame game played by Jerry Manuel extends to his coaching staff and into the offseason. Because now the word from Dan Warthen is that the Mets catchers are to blame for the terrible pitching exhibited by the Flushing Futiles. Read more
Why and How the Mets Should Trade for Roy Halladay
(NOTE: this article is by MetsToday contributing writer and resident stathead Matt Himelfarb — be kind, and keep an open mind)
Rumors of the Dodgers recent financial troubles due to the McCourts’ nasty split should be welcome news to the Mets. The only other potential Roy Halladay suitors that could fairly compensate baseball’s best pitcher appear to be the Jay’s inter-division rivals, the Yankees and the Red Sox. Both Boston and New York do not have unlimited payrolls, and figure to set their sights, both financially and in regard to prospects, on other priorities. The Jays might make a token attempt at competing next year, hoping to make reasonable run in 2011. Whatever the case, they probably do not want Roy Halladay pitching against them for at least the next half-decade.
Needless to say, the market for Halladay has been softening even more since July 31st. Unless Halladay decides to take a hometown discount, Halladay will be traded this off-season, as new General Manager Alex Anthopoulos recognizes that there is no advantage to keeping Halladay for 2010, or risk waiting until the trade deadline.
This is undoubtedly good news for Omar and co. Read more
Who Is Aroldis Chapman?
You may have been reading or hearing the buzz surrounding Aroldis Chapman, a Cuban defector who is currently meeting with several MLB teams in regard to his services. Here is what we know about him: Read more
Where Is Adam Bostick?
Back in August — long after the Mets exited the Wild Card race — the one thing we had to look forward to were the September call-ups. Sure, the games played would be meaningless, but we’d get a chance to see the best the Mets’ minors had to offer, a month-long audition. It would be kind of like spring training, only colder, and the games would count.
One of the pitchers we were eager to see in September was Adam Bostick.
Bostick, after all, was the last shred of evidence that the Mets once owned minor league pitchers who touched triple digits. To refresh your memory, Bostick came to the organization along with lefty starter Jason Vargas in a trade that sent Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens to the Florida Marlins. At the time, it was a move to give the Mets roster flexibility and more youth, since Lindstrom and Owens were ready to be on an MLB roster but the Mets didn’t believe they were ready to contribute at a championship level. Also at the time, the Mets had several hard-throwing righties over the age of 25 in their organization, and felt it would be a good idea to deal from strength to get two young lefthanders — in essence, it bought the team some time.
That time has since come and gone, and Bostick remains a minor leaguer. Once a starter, he’s been converted to the bullpen, and put up fairly decent numbers. Splitting the season between AA Binghamton and AAA Buffalo, Bostick struck out 63 in 56 innings and posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Not eye-popping numbers, but interesting enough for a team that could use another LOOGY in the ‘pen and has no other pitching prospects close to big league-ready. Really now, would you rather see what Bostick can do, or would you prefer to continue seeing the aging Elmer Dessens and Ken Takahashi take the hill?
Why wasn’t Bostick promoted? Many conspiracy theories abound. As far as we know, he’s not injured. He’s not on the 40-man roster so there is speculation that the Mets didn’t want to add him to it — because then they’d have to keep him there or possibly lose him. But that doesn’t hold water, because as an 8-year veteran of the minors, he’s a free agent after this season no matter what. Though the 40-man is currently full, room could have been made — in addition to the two old men mentioned previously, the Mets are also carrying Robinson Cancel, Arturo Lopez, and Andy Green on the roster for reasons unknown to mere mortals (not to mention the fact that Johan Santana and Oliver Perez are on the 15-day DL, rather than the 60-day). We can only guess that Bostick ticked someone off — perhaps this is a situation similar to Wily Mo Pena’s earlier in the year.
We do know he’ll be playing winter ball in Venezuela, but don’t know much else.
Mets Release Livan Hernandez
According to MetsBlog, the Mets have released Livan Hernandez and activated Billy Wagner from the DL.
Though Livan has struggled mightily in his last three starts, I’m mildly surprised if only because I don’t know who is going to take his spot in the rotation. Nelson Figueroa? Tim Redding? After seeing two three-inning starts by Bobby Parnell, and getting lucky to get 5 innings out of Ollie Perez, you’d think the Mets would reserve those two for long duty.
Hopefully this clears the way for the Mets to promote Lance Broadway or Tobi Stoner to get a look-see. Today happens to be Broadway’s 26th birthday, and though he’s been awful in AAA, you’d have to think he has a better shot at making the 2010 roster than Tim Redding.
Looking forward to seeing Billy Wagner in action … if he can crank it up to 95 MPH, the Mets will have a nice trading piece — or setup man for next year.
Oliver Perez and Release Points
NOTE: This is a guest post by Matt Himelfarb.
Jerry Manuel deserves credit for usually putting a humorous spin on another of Oliver Perez’s dreadful outings. I always picture him lying back in the manager’s office at Citi Field, his hands clasped behind his head, telling reporters “Ollie’s in a funk right now” and sounding a bullish note about Perez’s eccentrics with an autographed Jonathan Malo photo in a gold-plated frame in the background.
Manuel didn’t have to defend Ollie on Friday night, despite a crushing 6-2 loss to the Padres. Since returning from the DL on July 8th, Perez has been hampered by control problems; entering his last start, he compiled 26 walks in 27 innings of work, giving him a 20% walk rate. To put that in perspective, among qualified pitchers, Pirates southpaw Tom Gorzelanny has the highest walk rate in baseball at 14.29%
As the convenient SNY narrative goes, Dan Warthen advised Perez to take an extended pause when he lifts his leg. As a result, Perez’s mechanics were smooth on Friday night, enabling him to allow just two walks over 6.1 innings of one-run ball.
I’m no pitching guru, so I really wasn’t all that skeptical about this. Using pitch f/x info, I looked for any concrete adjustments Perez made. The first thing I looked at was the consistency of Perez’s release point. The general consensus is that a consistent arm slot contributed mightily toward Perez’s solid outing. After all, control is all about finding a solid, comfortable release point.
To do this, I took his vertical and horizontal release points, and found the standard deviation between each. I did this for his Friday night start, as well as all his other walk-laden outings since he came back. (For those not familiar with this, Josh Kalk wrote a nice primer over at The Hardball Times last September concerning repeatable release points and pitcher effectiveness.)
Oliver Perez Release Point Variation
| Date | Vertical Var. | Horizontal Var. |
|---|---|---|
| 8/7 (SD) | .164 (1.97 inches) | .196 (2.35 inches) |
| 8/1 (ARI) | .185 (2.22 inches) | .18 (2.16 inches) |
| 7/27 (COL) | .153 (1.84 inches) | .194 (2.33 inches) |
| 7/21 (WAS) | .19 (2.28 inches) | .196 (2.35 inches) |
| 7/16 (ATL) | .246 (2.95 inches) | .206 (2.47 inches) |
| 7/8 (LAD) | .144 (1.73 inches) | .197 (2.36 inches) |
To begin with, having almost two inches of variation is undoubtedly below average. Despite all the talk of keeping his front shoulder closed, his horizontal release point is still a major problem. That being said, if you look at his vertical release point, his last start certainly wasn’t his worst outing in terms of consistency. Regardless, as you can see, it does not appear it should make much of a difference anyway. His release point was actually more consistent against Colorado, during which he walked four batters in five innings, and against the Dodgers, where he allowed seven walks in five innings.
Next, I went to see if his actual release point changed throughout all his outings:
Oliver Perez Release Point Averages
| Date | Vertical R.P. | Horizontal R.P. |
|---|---|---|
| 8/7 (SD) | 5.24 (5 ft. 2.88 inches) | 2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches) |
| 8/1 (ARI) | 5.53 (5 ft. 6.36 inches) | 2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches) |
| 7/27 (COL) | 5.44 ( 5 ft. 5.28 inches) | 2.23 (2 ft. 2.76 inches) |
| 7/21 (WAS) | 5.4 (5 ft 4.8 inches) | 2.51 (2 ft. 6.12 inches) |
| 7/16 (ATL) | 5.5 (5 ft. 6 inches) | 2.4 (2 ft. 8 inches) |
| 7/8 (LAD) | 5.39 (5 ft. 4.68 inches) | 2.09 (2ft. 1.08 inches) |
Again, Perez didn’t seem to make any adjustments with his horizontal release point. It does look, however, that he lowered his vertical release point 2-3 inches. I found this kind of surprising, since we usually associate Ollie’s wildness when he classically drops his arm angle down.
[NOTE by Joe: This could be a flaw in the two-dimensional nature of the pitch f/x technology. When a pitcher throws more overhand, he must push his hand further forward and DOWN in order to direct the ball to the strike zone. That said, it makes sense that the release point was lower. (This path tends to create more leverage, momentum, and velocity, BTW.) The pitch f/x charts don't account for depth, only vertical and horizontal axis points.]
To be honest, I don’t if or how this would affect his command. I’m just logging the results. Going back to the pause, I do know that properly planting your plant foot toward the plate plays a major part in throwing strikes- although I guess in turn it would reflect his release point. [Note by Joe: Matt is correct on both points -- see Isaac Newton for more info.]
If not, though, there are reasons to think Perez’s successful outing was a mirage, and doesn’t say much about him going forward. For one, the Padres can be your prototypical collection of overly aggressive youngsters. They are ranked 14th in the National League in OBP. (.313), just two points ahead of Cincinnati and San Francisco, who are tied for last, and are ninth in walks (one ahead of the Mets in fact). To their credit, they take a decent amount of pitches per plate appearance (3.85 P/PA- league average is 3.82)
Friday night, they seemed very patient (4.04 P/PA). Perez’s average P/PA since returning, however, is 4.08.
Of course, maybe Perez was simply due for an outing like this; a 20% walk rate is probably unsustainable over the long run, even for Ollie. If he can string a few good outings together, we should be able to make some better observations.
Bobby Parnell’s Pitch Count
Excuse me for the late notice … I haven’t been paying attention the way I should.
So it just registered with me that Bobby Parnell “will be limited to 60-70 pitches during his outing” — at least, that’s what’s being reported on MetsBlog (and I’m sure it is correct information).
Great. Except, one thing: Bobby Parnell has NOT THROWN MORE THAN 33 PITCHES in any one outing all season.
Is anyone else seeing the problem I’m seeing? Am I nuts, or is it a little crazy to suddenly double his highest pitch count of the season? To come up with a “limit” that is FIVE TIMES HIS AVERAGE PITCH COUNT per outing this year?
Yes, folks, five times. Parnell has tossed a total of 817 pitches in 54 games. We know my math stinks so I used a calculator — but you can double-check in case my fat fingers affected the result.
As for “stretching him out”, go to the stats and check the game logs. Parnell threw 30 pitches on August 5th; 33 on August 3rd; 21 on August 1st; and 34 on July 30th (he pitched in both ends of a doubleheader). So, roughly 30 pitches every other day, then all of a sudden — WHAM! — his limit is 70.
May I add that Parnell seemed slightly surprised that he was getting a start when originally speaking to reporters the other day — so I’m guessing he wasn’t augmenting his in-game counts with extra side sessions. Though, he could be a really good actor.
Again, I must bring up the painstaking care and attention the Yankees paid to their young fireballer Joba Chamberlain, during his transition to the starting rotation. Either the Yankees were being unbelievably cautious, or the Mets are being incredibly irresponsible. No one can say for sure, but one look at the way the Mets have handled the physical condition of their players over the last few seasons is enough to make me skeptical.
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