Broadway a Blue Jay and Other News
In a twist of irony, Lance Broadway has signed with the Blue Jays.
Broadway was non-tendered by the Mets seven months after acquiring him in a trade with the White Sox for Ramon Castro. Castro agreed to terms with the Blue Jays a few days ago.
Meanwhile, free-agent righthander Jason Marquis announced he is a “perfect fit” for the Washington Nationals. Hmm, where have I heard that before?
In other news, the Mets may or may not have upped their offer to Jason Bay. I’ve chosen to avoid any Bay buzz until things sound more serious and/or “real” — there’s a lot of hot air. The Cardinals seem intent on signing Matt Holliday, having offered him either a 5- or 8-year deal, depending on the source.
Additionally, the Mets have reportedly made a two-year offer to Ryota Igarashi, a relief pitcher from Japan. However, Patrick Newman of NPBTracker hears there are at least three offers from other teams on the table. I know nothing about Igarashi other than what Newman has on his blog (which is excellent, by the way).
So hard to comment on the Mets when it comes to Japan. On the one hand, you want them to be “in” on anything that could be fruitful, but on the other hand, their history with Japanese imports has been less than fulfilling. Remember it was the Mets who chose not to listen to Bobby Valentine when he recommended Ichiro Suzuki, but later brought in Kaz Matsui to move Jose Reyes out of shortstop. But then again, Ken Takahashi worked out nicely. /sarcasm
The Mafia’s Team?
While some ignoramuses accuse Omar Minaya of favoring latino ballplayers (no, we’re not going there, not ever), MopUpDuty wonders if J.P. Ricciardi’s reign with the Toronto Blue Jays was focused on building an all-Italian team
Metsgrrl reveals the results of her in-depth survey researching why Mets fans are not renewing their ticket plans.
On a related subject, Dan Twohig at MetsPolice received an answer from the Mets regarding his letter to Fred Wilpon
24 Hours from Suicide asks Omar Minaya not to “jump the gun” on Bengie Molina, noting the availability of Dioner Navarro
In contrast, Ed at MetsFever makes clear he’s in support of Bengie Molina
The Price for Roy Halladay
According to a “high-ranking official” cited in an article by The National Post, the Toronto Blue Jays will take as much time as needed to trade Roy Halladay — if they trade him at all.
Would they actually keep Halladay through 2010 and allow him to leave via free agency next winter? Read more
Jones, Gonzalez, Vizquel Off the Table
The first free agents of this winter’s pool have agreed to terms with new teams: Alex Gonzalez has moved on to the Toronto Blue Jays, and both Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel are moving from Texas to the Chicago White Sox.
How do these signings affect the Mets? Read more
Mets in Three-way for Overbay?
The latest column from Ken Rosenthal reports that the Mets, Cubs, and Blue Jays are engaged in talks that would send Luis Castillo to Chicago, Milton Bradley to Toronto, and Lyle Overbay to New York.
Hat tip to loyal MetsToday reader “isuzudude” for the link.
Before you get too excited, though, Rosenthal also reports, Read more
Why and How the Mets Should Trade for Roy Halladay
(NOTE: this article is by MetsToday contributing writer and resident stathead Matt Himelfarb — be kind, and keep an open mind)
Rumors of the Dodgers recent financial troubles due to the McCourts’ nasty split should be welcome news to the Mets. The only other potential Roy Halladay suitors that could fairly compensate baseball’s best pitcher appear to be the Jay’s inter-division rivals, the Yankees and the Red Sox. Both Boston and New York do not have unlimited payrolls, and figure to set their sights, both financially and in regard to prospects, on other priorities. The Jays might make a token attempt at competing next year, hoping to make reasonable run in 2011. Whatever the case, they probably do not want Roy Halladay pitching against them for at least the next half-decade.
Needless to say, the market for Halladay has been softening even more since July 31st. Unless Halladay decides to take a hometown discount, Halladay will be traded this off-season, as new General Manager Alex Anthopoulos recognizes that there is no advantage to keeping Halladay for 2010, or risk waiting until the trade deadline.
This is undoubtedly good news for Omar and co. Read more
Mets Shopping for Halladay?
The New York Times is reporting that the Mets may go after Roy Halladay, if in fact the Toronto Blue Jays make him available this winter.
As MetsBlog notes, the fact the Mets have little in the way of near-ready prospects in their farm system may not matter, since few teams will be able to handle the financial commitment that is required to keep Halladay away from free agency. In other words, it could be another Johan Santana situation — whereby the Mets acquired the star lefthander more because the deep-pocketed Yankees and Red Sox walked away from the table rather than because the Mets had the best package of players.
If indeed the Mets make a pitch for Halladay, and pull of a Santana-like trade-and-sign deal that totals over a hundred million dollars, it will be another case of the Mets using their same old shortsighted, knee-jerk strategy of “building a winner”.
Getting Halladay would be great, no question (as Jerry Manuel likes to say). But it’s just another band-aid that will send the Mets backward over the long term.
The Mets had the opportunity to obtain one of the top three pitchers in MLB last winter — and would not have had to give up a single player. We discussed right here on MetsToday last November that the Mets should go after C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia wound up signing a 7-year, $161M contract — about the same deal that Halladay is likely to get. The big difference, however, is that Sabathia was only 27 when he began that contract, and Halladay will be 33.
Maybe they would have not have been able to top the Yankees (even though Sabathia preferred the NL), but that’s not the point — the point is that the Mets never even sniffed Sabathia’s way. They were completely satisfied to bring back another young lefthander at a much cheaper cost, and to rest on the laurels of the “big splash” they made in the bullpen (signing K-Rod, trading for Putz).
Last winter the general consensus was that the Mets needed to fix the bullpen. The PR message built was, “address the bullpen problem, and the Mets will go to the World Series”. So once they signed Frankie Fantastik and obtained J.J. Putz, there was every reason to buy season tickets.
In the end, they overspent on K-Rod, overspent on Oliver Perez, and both overspent and over-traded for J.J. Putz — a total expenditure of $96M and 7 players for band-aids to stop the bleeding. By spending all that dough and emptying their farm system, you couldn’t say they weren’t trying — and it’s now easy for them to look back and say “hey, we did what we had to do, we fixed the bullpen”.
Fast-forward one year and the Mets have new wounds opening … with more band-aids on the way.
Two Men Who Can Help the Mets: J.P. Ricciardi and Kevin Towers
Over the past 24 hours, two MLB general managers were relieved of their duties.
New Padres owner Jeff Moorad fired Kevin Towers and the Blue Jays let go J.P. Ricciardi.
Ricciardi was the golden boy oft-mentioned in Moneyball, but was unable to turn his saber-magic into success in Toronto.
The SI.com article summed up his tenure thusly:
The 2009 campaign was a microcosm of Ricciardi’s tenure as GM. There was a hopeful start, a sudden collapse, a lack of resources to turn things around, a spate of injuries, some painful decisions related to bad contracts and ultimately, pessimism for the future.
Ricciardi didn’t exactly employ Moneyball tactics in Toronto — in fact it was his irresponsible, unBeanelike contract decisions that contributed to his firing (for example: 2 years/$18M for Frank Thomas; 5-year deal for BJ Ryan; opt-out for AJ Burnett; long-term, expensive deals for Vernon Wells and Alex Rios).
Though his record as a GM is unimpressive, Ricciardi was spectacular as a scout, special assistant, and director of player personnel in Oakland. It’s doubtful anyone will consider him for another GM position anytime soon — particularly after the way he handled (bumbled) the Roy Halladay situation this season, and his ill-conceived, public comments regarding Adam Dunn last year. A return to a less-public position in someone’s front office would make sense. As you may know, Ricciardi began his baseball career in the New York Mets organization — he was a Rookie League and A-ball teammate of Billy Beane in the early 1980s. As you also may know, the Mets are rebuilding their front office, and in need of a special assistant and/or director of player personnel.
Similarly, the Mets could be in the market for someone like Kevin Towers, who is leaving San Diego after 15 years as the Padres GM. You don’t spend that much time in a position unless you’re doing something right — and Towers did a fine job keeping stability and executing successful rebuilding phases under the constraints of what was usually a small-market budget.
It appears that the Mets are going to give Omar Minaya at least another year to right the ship, but he could benefit from (or be pushed by) Towers’ presence — say as an assistant GM. Towers’ eye for finding talent off the scrap heap and his ability to make shrewd deals would be helpful with the anticipated cut in payroll.
The Mets are in the midst of making big changes in their organization, and will be hiring new faces. Here are two with proven track records who can make an immediate and positive impact.
It would be a nice departure from their previous strategy of putting into place, people who have no experience, qualifications, nor credentials for their assigned jobs.
**** UPDATE *************************
Joel Sherman reports that Omar Minaya could be considering both Ricciardi and Towers.
*************************************
Someone Is On Crack
By now you’ve read or heard about Jon Heyman’s SI column reporting that the Mets turned down a Blue Jays trade proposal for Roy Halladay.
According to Heyman:
Toronto’s request of the Mets for star pitcher Roy Halladay was for top outfield prospect Fernando Martinez, young pitchers Bobby Parnell and Jon Niese and shortstop prospect Ruben Tejada, sources tell SI.com.
The Mets responded with a resounding no.
OK, someone here is on crack, and I want to know who. The authorities need to be informed and someone needs to go to jail, because drugs are bad, and hurt everyone.
Either it’s Heyman, for not getting the facts straight, JP Ricciardi, for making such a light proposal, or Omar Minaya, for not pulling the trigger. Because seriously, the Mets wouldn’t want to trade four youngsters with less than a half season of MLB experience combined in return for the best pitcher in MLB? They wouldn’t want to pair the best pitcher in MLB with the second-best pitcher in MLB (take your pick on who’s who), and have the most dominating 1-2 duo since Curt Schilling / Randy Johnson? (Some would argue that Halladay / Santana would be more dominating.) Really?
For the crack smokers out there who are emotionally tied to F-Mart, Niese, Parnell, and a 17-year-old you likely wouldn’t know if he was sitting on your living room couch, may I remind you of David West, Alex Ochoa, Alex Escobar, Ambiorix Concepcion, Butch Huskey, Keith Miller, Ryan Thompson, Brook Fordyce, Damon Buford, Billy Beane, Terry Blocker, Chris Donnels, DJ Dozier, Bill Latham, Wally Whitehurst, Floyd Youmans, and Herm Winningham — for example. Not to mention Mike Vail, Gregg Jefferies, Jason Phillips, Calvin Schiraldi, and others who may have had brief stints of success but never quite lived up to the hype.
Yes, every once in a while the Mets give away a gem like Scott Kazmir, Jason Bay, or Nolan Ryan, but those were deals for nobodies. Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, bar none. He’s not Victor Zambrano, Jason Middlebrook, or Jim Fregosi.
There is the argument that the Mets’ system is already void of prospects, and can’t bare to lose any more. But where was that whine the past four winters, when the Mets were gobbling up Type A free agents and in turn losing #1 draft picks? And do you really believe that Martinez, Parnell, Niese, and Tejada are going to make a significant impact on the team in 2010 and 2011 — the type of impact that will put them in the Fall Classic?
Further, if the Mets did about five minutes of negotiating, they’d likely also net Alex Rios or Vernon Wells — two outfielders with enormous contracts that a New York team like the Mets should be able to handle (Rios, with the cheaper contract, is the obvious preference). Again, start crying that the Mets can’t afford to take on any more big contracts, or that Rios and Wells stink. Now tell me who is playing left field next season? Nick Evans? Who’s playing center in 2012, when Carlos Beltran will have jettisoned for a warmer, calmer climate? Not Fernando Martinez, nor anyone else in the Mets’ farm system. The Mets have nothing in the way of outfield prospects coming up between now and 2014, so guess how the holes will be filled? Free agency. Possibly Type A — i.e., Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford, Jason Bay, Magglio Ordonez, Vladimir Guerrero, Rick Ankiel, Jermaine Dye, Manny Ramirez. Heck, Xavier Nady may qualify as Type A. And there goes another draft pick. And most likely, an expensive, too-long-term contract. So either way the farm system gets kicked in the groin, and the budget gets expanded. Further, I don’t know that any of those free agents are guaranteed to significantly outperform Rios or Wells over the next five years.
If we knew for sure that the Mets were going to throw in the towel on 2009 and 2010, and focus on building from within, then maybe you refrain from trading those four suspects. But Omar Minaya has three more years beyond this one, and his modus operandi is to pay exhorbitantly for upper tier, well-known players, for the purpose of “putting a winning product on the field” in the short-term. A Halladay trade like the one proposed is as much a no-brainer as the Santana deal was (I’m sorry, do you wish you had Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Carlos Gomez, and Deolis Guerra right now, instead?).
Of course, the rumor has already been shot down by a number of sources, so we may never find out who was smoking crack yesterday. Maybe all three were passing the pipe around together.
Conspiracy Theory: the Mets “leaked” this “trade offer” — even if it never occurred — as a means of making those four prospects appear more valuable than they really are. Think about it — it makes the Mets look good, in that a) their farm system has plenty of worthwhile trading chips, and b) it tells their fans that they’re committed to the future, and won’t give away their top prospects — not even for Roy Halladay.
***Conspiracy Update! ****
Per Heyman’s updated column from this afternoon (thanks to Walnutz for the link!):
In any case, it appears that the Mets’ prospect list isn’t as thin as some suggest, as even in that proposal they’d be keeping top young pitchers Jenrry Mejia and Brad Holt and shortstop prodigy Wilmer Flores.
Window Shopping with Empty Pockets
Finally, a team has been identified as a seller — the Arizona Diamondbacks sold off middle reliever Tony Pena to the White Sox for AAA first baseman Brandon Allen. Presumably, the D’Backs will look to move several other contracts in the next few weeks, such as Felipe Lopez, Jon Garland, Tony Clark, Chad Tracy, Jon Rauch, Scott Schoeneweis, and others (Doug Davis? Chad Qualls?). Had Tom Gordon and Eric Byrnes not hit the DL, they also would be on the trade block. Any of those names incite interest from the Mets?
Garland was a hurler we discussed at length here in the offseason for his ability to eat innings. He has been a very expensive version of Livan Hernandez so far — usually gives 6-7 innings, but has had a handful of absolutely terrible starts. With the return of Ollie Perez — however unimpressive — the chance of the Mets trading for a starter is next to nil. Lopez would be a nice fill-in at shortstop while Jose Reyes is on the mend, but at what cost? If a middle reliever having a down year is worth a prospect at the level of Nick Evans or Dan Murphy (or maybe better), what will a starting shortstop fetch? Likely more than the Mets are willing to part with.
Which brings us back to the same tired story we drudge through every year at this time — the Mets do not have the chips to offer in a trade that would sufficiently fill their needs. What makes this year more difficult than years past is that the Mets do not have the advantage of money. For example, in 2006 the Mets did not have the chips, but had the ability to take on a bad contract — i.e., Shawn Green and Guillermo Mota. Thanks in part to Bernie Madoff, the Mets are unlikely to pick up an overpaid veteran in return for a nondescript minor leaguer at the deadline this year.
But, we’ll do some window shopping anyway. Just because we can’t afford to buy a new 50″ LCD TV, doesn’t mean we can’t check them out at the store.
In addition to the Diamondbacks, we can safely assume that the Blue Jays, Orioles, Nationals, and Padres are also sellers. It’s hard to identify the Athletics as a seller, since they just acquired veteran outfielder Scott Hairston, but you never know what’s going on in the mind of Billy Beane. Similarly, though the Indians are a dozen games out of first, they’re still clinging to the idea of finishing strong and having a bounceback year in 2010, so I’m not sure they can be called “sellers” just yet.
Over the next few days, we’ll go over the identified “sellers”, in no particular order. First up, Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays just released B.J. Ryan and have made Roy Halladay available for a bounty similar to “what the Rangers obtained for Mark Teixeira”. Would the Mets be so bold as to make such a deal? A package would almost certainly have to start with Mike Pelfrey, and/or Jose Reyes. This is the best pitcher in MLB — hands down — and under contract through 2010. A deal might also include Alex Rios, who is a nice young talent but could turn out to be overpaid.
From the Mets’ perspective, it’s a deal that could make sense, even if it involves Pelfrey and/or Reyes, but they’d have to get Rios and they’d have to believe he is about to blossom (I’m not sure that’s the case). It would be hard to lose with Johan Santana and Halladay heading a rotation, and some scouts believe Rios is the next Carlos Beltran — who is not getting any younger and whose contract is up after 2011. In contrast, Rios is locked up through 2015, at a relatively inexpensive $12-13M per season. I say “relatively inexpensive” because you have to buy into the idea that the 28-year-old Rios is on the verge of stardom.
Interestingly, Rios’ career path thus far is somewhat similar to Beltran’s early years — look at their basic offensive numbers at the same ages. Both players had seasons in their mid-20s where they hit .300+, struck out 100+ times, and hit 40+ doubles. The biggest contrast is in the homeruns and RBI — Beltran was clubbing 20-25 HRs and driving in 100 a year from age 22, whereas Rios has had only one 20+ homer season thus far and not yet collected 100 RBI. But, it could be argued that Rios’ doubles power and speed is a better fit for spacious Citi Field, and at $6M less per year, could be a similar value — a “poor man’s Beltran”, so to speak.
Likely, the Mets aren’t making that deal anyway. Even more likely, they won’t make a play for veteran 1B / OF Kevin Millar, no matter how cheap he’ll be to acauire and no matter how fitting his righthanded bat and positive clubhouse personality. Tony Bernazard calls the shots in the Mets’ front office, and he still holds a grudge against Millar from Bernazard’s days with the MLBPA (Millar was a scab who crossed the picket line in 1994). Yes, Millar’s best days are behind him, and you don’t want Nick Evans losing at-bats to him, but his value is in his clubhouse presence. It wouldn’t hurt to have a few more strong personalities — with winning backgrounds — mingling with Wrights, Evanses Murphys, F-Marts, and other young players.
The Blue Jays will probably dangle 1B Lyle Overbay in front of teams, and though the Mets might be interested in a first baseman, the 32-year-old, underachieving Overbay — an older, lighter-hitting version of Nick Johnson — shouldn’t be on their radar. Similarly, David Dellucci should be available, but is he an upgrade over, say, Angel Pagan?
Either Marco Scutaro or John McDonald would be ideal plug-ins to help out Alex Cora up the middle, but again there’s the question — what would it take to pry one of them away, and would it be worth the cost? If it’s only Argenis Reyes, go for it, but if it’s going to take a legitimate prospect, it’s probably a “no” — it would smell too much like the Melvin Mora for Mike Bordick debacle of yesteryear.
Other than Halladay, the Jays don’t have any presumably available pitchers that jump out at you. Brian Tallet? Scott Downs? I don’t think so. And looking again at Halladay, there is something that “jumps out” — his age, which is 32. He’s showing no signs of slowing down, but if you acquire him, you are essentially saying that your team is going for broke in 2009 and 2010 and then letting him walk, because at age 34 he won’t be worth the multi-year, $20M+ per year contract he’ll command on the open market.
Bottom line? Assuming the Mets have to send the type of talent I think they have to, a Halladay deal isn’t worth it, because he alone won’t deliver a postseason appearance. Though, I’m intrigued by Rios, and would consider sending a top prospect away for him (yes, I mean F-Mart / Niese / Flores). I like F-Mart, but believe he’s at least 3-4 years away from where Rios is right now, and Rios *should* be at this level for at least another 3-4 years. It’s kind of like the A.J. Burnett for Al Leiter deal — would you do it again, knowing it would take Burnett several years to evolve into an Al Leiter-level pitcher? But don’t worry — the Mets would never, ever trade the very cheap and very young F-Mart for the very expensive Rios.
Picking up Scutaro for nothing would be nice, but unlikely. And if JP Ricciaridi is interested in an “out of the box” deal, I’d float the idea of trading Tony Bernazard for Kevin Millar.
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