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MetsBlog is reporting that oddsmakers believe the Mets have a 37.4% chance of making the postseason. That’s up 2% since last week, which is odd since the Mets have gone 4-5 since then, Mike Pelfrey is struggling and Johan’s velocity is still down. Oh, and the bullpen is a disaster.

But the Mets are still only two games behind the Braves for the division lead and a half game ahead of the Dodgers in the wildcard standings. So this is certainly doable – especially if the Mets are serious about trading for Cliff Lee.

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Last week, it was reported that Luis Castillo will start at second base when he returns to the team. What do you think?

Ollie Perez started his rehab assignment last night, allowing four runs and five hits over six innings – in Class A-ball. To date, Perez is 0-3 with a 6.28 ERA at the major league level. You will remember that Perez was signed to a 3-year, $36 million contract in the off-season – who could forget that contract?

Here’s another contract you shouldn’t forget – beginning in July 2011, the Mets will have to make 25 yearly payments of $1.19 million dollars to Bobby Bonilla – the result of deferring money owed to him back in 2000. It sounds like a horrible contract – and it is – but there is a silver lining to this 25-year cloud:

By postponing their payments to Mr. Bonilla for 11 years, the Mets freed enough money to trade for starting pitcher Mike Hampton and outfielder Derek Bell and sign first baseman Todd Zeile. Those three players earned a combined $15.1 million in 2000, and the Mets reached the World Series that year for the first time since 1986. (Wall Street Journal)

Which brings us to today’s poll question – which contract is worse, going forward?

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The Mets are positioned for a serious playoff run – they are 1.5 games behind the division leading Braves and a half game ahead of the Reds in the wildcard standings. Rumors continue to swirl about the team’s interest in Cliff Lee (among others), but doubts persist about Johan Santana’s health and effectiveness.

Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey is establishing himself as one of the top young pitchers in the National League.

So… assuming you could have Santana, Pelfrey, or any of the rumored trade targets to start the first game of a playoff series, who would it be?

For the purposes of this poll, don’t worry about the prospects or money required to obtain an outside pitcher. Just tell us who you are most confident in as a Game 1 starter.

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Yesterday’s poll asked if the Mets should go after Ted Lilly instead of Cliff Lee.

Today, I ask you this: Assuming the Mets will go after a quality veteran starting pitcher, which young players/prospects should be excluded from all trade discussions?

Granted, a specific pitcher will dictate a specific combination of prospects that will be offered. And when you factor in contract lengths, money owed and additional veterans that can be sent either way in a deal, the possibilities grow even more complex.

But which prospects should not even be considered as trade bait by Omar Minaya? In other words, who should be untouchable?

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Joel Sherman is reporting that the Mets have interest in Cliff Lee and would not require a a negotiating window to extend his contract. In other words, the Mets would be renting Lee, most likely for Jenrry Mejia and Angel Pagan.

And even if the Mets can outbid other suitors, such as the Twins, for Lee, it would still be up to Mets ownership to approve giving up prospects for a rental and agree to add a nice bit of payroll. Doubts persist within the organization whether the Wilpons really will accept those terms. (NY Post via MetsParadise)

Sherman also indicates the Mets may have interest in Cubs lefty Ted Lilly. Brandon Lee at MetsParadise, explains why Lilly could be an attractive alternative:

Lilly is owed $12M this season, which is the finally year of his contract. After this season he would most likely become a Type A free agent, so if the Mets offer him arbitration, they could get top drafts pick if he signs elsewhere. (MetsParadise)

So who should the Mets go after? Let’s break it down:

Cliff Lee
Age: 31
Record: 6-3
ERA: 2.39
WHIP: 0.91
K/IP: 76/86.2

Ted Lilly
Age: 34
Record: 2-6
ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.07
K/IP: 56/79.2

Obviously, Lee is putting up better numbers, but Lilly should come cheaper, at least in terms of trading young talent. And if Lilly can consistently get the Mets to the seventh inning with a lead, he may allow the Mets to make a credible playoff run without mortgaging the future.

Fun Fact: According to ESPN, Lilly’s full name is Theodore Roosevelt Lilly. That MIGHT rival Milton Bradley and Coco Crisp as the best name in Major League Baseball.