Mets Prepare for Pineiro
Since joining the St. Louis Cardinals, Joel Pineiro has been a thorn in the Mets’ side, most recently channeling Christy Mathewson when he faced the orange and blue.
In two starts covering 17 innings this year, Pineiro has a 1.04 ERA vs. the Mets, allowing only 8 hits and a .151 batting average.
Last year, the Mets pounded him for 21 hits in 9 innings, but the Cards won both contests.
However, tonight it’s going to be different. Jerry Manuel — always looking for ways to exploit technology to get an edge on the competition — has come up with a way to prepare for Pineiro’s vaunted sinkerball. Manuel told reporters prior to the game that the pitching machine was adjusted in such a manner that it was now throwing sinkers (previously, if you remember, it was set to throw curveballs).
So no worries …. after facing the sinkers from “Iron Mike”, Pineiro should be no problem at all.
Who Is Jeremy Reed and Other Mysteries
Quick quiz: who is the man in the picture to the left?
I’ll give you a few hints:
1. He was part of the trade with Seattle that brought J.J. Putz and Sean Green to New York.
2. He led the team in batting average during spring training.
3. He’s currently .313 and has played excellent defense in the outfield.
4. For about a 48-hour period, he was the team’s starting first baseman.
Give up?
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A Source of Power
Jerry Manuel’s opine for power has so far fallen on deaf ears in the front office. But, perhaps the solution can be found from within.
That’s right, there’s a slugging outfielder-first baseman right under our nose (well, actually, in Buffalo) — and he hits from the right side of the plate.
His name is Wily Mo Pena.
Stop laughing … he may be on the way up.
Though he struggled mightily upon joining the organization, Wily Mo has recently picked it up. In his last ten games, Pena is hitting .351 with 2 homers, 3 doubles, and 9 RBI, and is hitting .345 for the month of June.
As mentioned several weeks ago, Pena has tremendous raw power and is only 27 — on the brink of entering his prime. There are many who believe he’ll never recapture the magic that led to his hitting 51 homers before the age of 24, but I point the critics to Nelson Cruz. Cruz — someone I advocated acquiring last year — was labeled as a career “tweener” or “AAAA guy”, but has blossomed in this, his 28th year, with 17 homers and a .288 average in his first 236 at-bats in Texas.
I’m not predicting that a Wily Mo will come in and mash 40 homers. But considering that the Mets are desperate for some punch, and have little chance of acquiring someone from the outside, logic would dictate that Pena’s promotion is imminent.
By the way, not only does Pena play in Buffalo, but he also resembles one. Check out this photo I found of him on Flickr, standing next to Javier Valentin. Even if he can’t hit, his mere presence should cause a bit of fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers:
No Worries About Wright
David Wright is leading the National League in strikeouts and hitting only .271. However, I see no reason for concern, since this is Wright’s M.O. for April. He is a notoriously slow starter, and we’ve come to expect subpar numbers from him in the first month of the season.
But don’t listen to me, check the stats — his career batting average in April/March is .283, a full 25 points below his career average overall. Strangely enough, he has walked more times (74) in the initial month than in any other (covering 114 games total).
Ted Berg of MetsBlog astutely noted:
Wright is now hitting .270 with a .370 on-base percentage, .371 slugging and 23 strikeouts. After 18 games in 2007, Wright was hitting .261 with a .363 OBP, .333 SLG and 20 Ks.
Last year, Wright started off hot, then cooled off quickly — he was hitting only .262 after 32 games.
In both 2007 and 2008, Wright eventually got going, and finished strong — he batted .364 in the second half of 2007 and .330 in the second half of 2008.
Reassessing the Offense
Although Fernando Tatis hit only .244 in August, he picked things up these past few weeks, going 10 for his last 31 with a .910 OPS. That kind of offensive production is sorely needed on a team with a precarious bullpen situation — as I’ve been saying all along, the best defense against late-inning relief catastrophes is to score more runs!
Even Jerry Manuel, after yesterday’s game, admitted,
“With the loss of Tatis, we have to reassess where we are offensively.”
Manuel suggested that “the two kids” will handle left field going forward. That would be Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans, if you’ve been living under a rock since the trade deadline (speaking of, Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Casey Blake, or Adam Dunn would sure look great in orange and blue right now). If Evans can continue to pound lefties to the tune of .338, and Murphy can continue his impression of Wade Boggs, the Mets might be OK. If they can’t, things will be quite difficult.
The main issue is that opposing pitchers will have the option to pitch around the middle of the lineup (which hasn’t done much in the last few days anyway). They may pitch to David Wright, but most certainly will serve up sliders in the dirt to the two Carloses. After the fifth spot in the order, there isn’t much to speak of — unless, as previously mentioned, the kids remain hot.
Most likely, Ryan Church will be moved down in the lineup to #6, which may or may not be a good thing. He has only 6 hits in his last 23 at-bats, but is the only legitimate power source to place after Delgado. Then again, if Church does heat up, and hit like he did in April and May, do you want to bury him so low? Wouldn’t you rather make sure he gets an at-bat in the first inning?
That’s not something to consider, of course, if / until Church gets in a groove. In the meantime, we’ll likely see “the kids” in the two-hole — a rotation of Murphy, Evans, and possibly Argenis Reyes, who despite a .277 OBP is considered an ideal batter behind leadoff man Jose Reyes. Um, yeah. Usually I’m not one to lean on stats to support an argument, but in this case it’s simple logic. I don’t care how many times the SNY announcers say “he’s always in the middle of something” — the reality is, those “somethings” are occurring less than 28% of the time.
Assuming the left fielders bat second, and Church bats sixth, that leaves the seventh and eighth spots for the catcher and second baseman. If Ramon Castro were 100%, he’d be the ideal guy to pick up the bottom of the order — heck, I’d consider him sixth until Church comes around. But he was just removed from the DL a few days ago, and no one’s quite sure how healthy he is. Add in the fact that Brian Schneider’s knee is suddenly an issue, and Damion Easley is also hobbling, and we’re looking at a bottom three of Robinson Cancel, Argenis Reyes / Luis Castillo, and the pitcher. That’s not a championship lineup — unless the year is 1969.
Again, if Wright – Beltran – Delgado are hitting, opposing teams will have the option to pitch around them, which magnifies the importance of everyone else in the lineup. So not only is it necessary for the big three to get back on track immediately, but the Murphy / Evans platoon has to continue producing above their heads, Church has to get going, AND an “unknown” has to come out of nowhere with big hits.
Oh, and then there’s Jose Reyes, who is hitting .216 this month.
Not sure about you, but this “reassessment” hasn’t bolstered my confidence.
Where’s the Beef?
I’d like to share the stats of a “random” selection of batters …
Manny Ramirez went 4-for-5 with 3 RBI in his most recent game, hitting .615 since joining the Dodgers.
Casey Blake was 2-for-4 in the same game, hitting .364 with LA.
Xavier Nady set a career high by driving in 6 runs yesterday, going 4-for-5. He’s hitting .385 in the pinstripes.
Ken Griffey, Jr. is hitting .429 wearing the White Sox uniform.
Jason Bay has scored 6 runs in three games with the Red Sox, sporting a .364 batting average.
Aubrey Huff — whose name was unbelievably not even whispered during the trade deadline — is batting .547 with 9 RBI in his last 7 games. Fantasy owners know he’s hitting .305 with 22 HR and 73 RBI this season.
Meantime, the Mets continue to struggle at the plate, as they were shut out by the lowly Astros in a game in which they left 11 runners on base.
Since being anointed the starting left fielder by manager Jerry Manuel, Fernando Tatis has started in left field once and is 5-for-21 with 1 RBI and 1 run scored.
Meantime, the “real” left fielders appear to be a conglomeration of overmatched rookies Nick Evans and Dan Murphy, punch-and-judy-hitting Endy Chavez, and the recently disabled Marlon Anderson.
Regular right fielder Ryan Church was supposedly on track to come off the DL within a week, but skipped batting practice yesterday. The Mets’ medical staff, which has been about as reliable as the weather this year, claims this was not a setback.
It’s not bad enough that the corner outfield positions are punchless; recently, hard-hitting Ramon Castro suffered a sprained ankle, which means the number eight spot in the order will be manned exclusively by Brian Schneider and Robinson Cancel. Combine this with the fact that the team’s highest-paid position player has been installed as the #2 hitter in the lineup, and suddenly there is a mild panic regarding the Mets’ ability to score runs.
Oh, but the cavalry is on its way, folks — Luis Castillo has begun his rehab stint in the minors. Before you know it, we’ll be witnessing his soft flares, bloopers, and ground balls peppering the infield once again. And, the Mets just signed utility infielder Ramon Martinez to a minor-league contract. His career slugging percentage of .370 is much better than Mario Mendoza’s.
But things get scarier when you consider that the Mets’ number one concern right now is not the offense, but the bullpen. So if there is any chance of improving the team — for example, through a trade — the Mets likely will acquire an arm before a bat.
Buckle up, folks … the rollercoaster is heading down quickly …
Say No To Ibanez
The rumors of Raul Ibanez coming to Queens continue to abound.
Let’s get one thing crystal clear:
= 
For those who are more literary than visionary, Raul Ibanez is Shawn Green. In other words, a guy who once was a strong all-around player with a slugging lefthanded bat, who has declined drastically in all phases of the game in the past few years due to age. Bat speed – gone. Power – gone. Fielding ability – gone. Baserunning – gone. Yet the Mariners want two prospects for Ibanez, and are supposedly holding out for Jonathan Niese. My answer to the Ms is “NFW”.
Don’t get me wrong — I was a HUGE Shawn Green fan, and enjoyed every moment he played in the orange and blue. But his skills were diminished, and he was nowhere near the player he was in his glory days — that’s why the Mets were able to snatch him away from Arizona for suspect Evan MacLane.
Similarly, if the Mariners ask for something reasonable in return for Raul — say, Adam Bostick or Tobi Stoner — then OK, do the dea. If not, hang up the phone and call Shawn Green instead. He’s the same player, and will come much more cheaply.
Your Turn, Omar
So the Phillies have accomplished the impossible, addressing their most glaring need by picking up Joe Blanton from the Athletics for a package of prospects / suspects.
The Phillies gave up no one from their 25-man roster, with all three players among their “top 20 prospects” according to Baseball America. However, that’s not saying much — the Phillies’ farm system might be worse than the Mets’. They gave up Adrian Cardenas (BA #2), a 20-year-old offensively minded second baseman who projects as a “middle of the order” hitter but hasn’t shown that kind of power yet; Josh Outman (BA #4), a 23-year-old LHP who has a GREAT name for a pitcher but is too old to be a middle reliever in AA; and Matt Spencer, a 22-year-old outfielder from Arizona State who is hitting .250 in A ball and might benefit by moving to the mound (he’s a lefty who threw a 94-MPH fastball at ASU).
It was no accident that the Phillies made this move prior to their series with the Mets. His last start came on July 9th, so I imagine the Phils could slot him into the rotation wherever they wish.
As we all know, the Mets have a glaring need of their own — a corner outfielder with a legitimate big-league bat. I’m still not convinced that a.) Ryan Church will return from his neurological issues and be the guy he was from April-June; and b.) Fernando Tatis and Endy Chavez can continue to hit the way they’ve been hitting. BOTH (a) and (b) have to happen if the Mets are to get into the postseason, and we’re waiting on (a). Don’t be blinded by the Mets’ 9-game winning streak — the pitching won’t be THAT good for the rest of the season and eventually, not having that extra big bat (Moises Alou) will hinder the team’s chances.
So with the Phillies making their move, it’s time for Omar Minaya to make his move. And that move is NOT promoting Fernando Martinez. If F-Mart were hitting .350 and bashing balls over the fence, then yes, it’s a good move. But Martinez is not dominating, and not hitting for power, and IS doing a lot of swinging and missing. At AA. Guys who strike out a lot in AA will strike out even more in AAA, and more still in MLB. So that .295 average F-Mart is carrying becomes .260 or worse, with little power. May as well hope Angel Pagan can return (not looking good) or give Trot Nixon a shot. At least Nixon will draw walks, run the bases intelligently, and pop one every once in a while.
The Mets will not get Matt Holliday — nor should they. But they might be able to steal Raul Ibanez, Junior Griffey, Casey Blake, Jay Payton, Kevin Millar, or someone similar. I still smell a trade with Baltimore coming, with the Mets bringing in big salaries (Payton, Ramon Hernandez, Chad Bradford) in return for suspect youngsters. The Orioles, going nowhere and strapped with bad contracts, are too perfect a trading partner not to be able to work out some kind of deal.
But what will Omar’s move be? No one knows for sure, but I guarantee we’ll see something before Monday. Minaya will want the Mets armed a ready for the Phillies series.
Alou Out – Now What?
So the news before the All-Star Break was that Moises Alou was finished for the year, having torn his hamstring in a rehab game the night before.
There had been suggestions that Alou did not need to rush back, that the Mets would be fine with Alou returning some time after the All-Star break, but apparently Alou was allowed to begin his comeback prematurely. There goes $7.5M, down the drain!
Alou appeared in a total of 15 games … a few short of the 90 or 100 many of us had hoped for. Hmm … that comes to half a million dollars per game. Nice job, Moises — that’s a better rate than Alex Rodriguez!
Enough of the jokes. Personally, I’m crushed about this news. Yes, I know it was silly to believe Moises could have given the Mets anything this year, but when the guy is on the field, he’s one of the five or six players in MLB I absolutely love to watch. The way he carries himself, plays the game all-out, with outstanding instincts and intelligence, plus his innate ability to drive in runs, makes him a pleasure to watch. I suppose all those verbs should have been presented in the past tense.
Anyway, now what will the Mets do without him? Until now, Omar Minaya had been under the assumption that the parade of leftfielders were stopgaps, keeping the position warm until Moises healed (we knew better). Now, there is no question — the Mets need a strong-hitting outfielder. The issue is exacerbated by the questionable condition of Ryan Church. The Mets’ 2008 offense — and their ultimate success — was planned around the idea that Alou would play 100-120 games (however irresponsible that was, it WAS the plan). Alou’s absence was somewhat alleviated by Church’s rise to stardom. But now, without either hitter, the Mets need to find someone.
Yes, the Mets have been winning without Alou AND Church lately. That doesn’t mean they can keep it going over the long haul. I would really like to believe that Fernando Tatis is having a renaissance season — much like Jose Valentin’s 2006, as one MetsToday reader recently suggested — but the Mets can’t count on him staying this hot. Even if they could, that only accounts for one corner outfield spot — one that would be handled by a very shaky and inexperienced defender.
Let’s take a look at the Mets options for left and right fields, both in-house and outside the organization.
A combination of Fernando Tatis, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, and Nick Evans / Chris Aguila
The righthanded hitters — Tatis and Evans — both started shagging fly balls a few months ago, so the outfield defense will take a hit when the opposing team puts a lefty on the mound. Anderson might be worse defender than both of them, and is still slumping as he struggles to stay near the Mendoza Line. Chavez brings a great glove to the table and has been a hot hitter of late — however, he also tends to be a streaky hitter, and is bound to hit a cold streak with regular duty. The jury is still out on Aguila. It’s not an impossibility to believe this ramshackle group can somehow pull off near-average production compared to other NL corner outfielders, though my guess is the power numbers will be lower than the mean for both positions. Still, the Mets could get by IF Brian Schneider hits better than expected, Damion Easley remains hot, and Carlos Delgado continues on the road back to respectability. However, those are all big ifs.
Trot Nixon
The forgotten Nixon is waiting around on the DL, and could be activated as early as Sunday. He could find time in the above menagerie while the Mets wait for Church to return, though eventually the team would have to decide between him and Marlon Anderson. Trot will never hit for the power he did a few years ago, but is still a solid defender and a good on-base guy who plays inspirational, all-out ball. If he gets another shot on the 25-man roster, he’ll have to hit to stick. Who knows, maybe he can.
Fernando Martinez
Omar Minaya did not hesitate to promote Carlos Gomez last season, despite his rawness. Gomez was clearly overmatched at the plate, but held his own in the field, made the most of his best weapon (speed), and provided a jolt of energy and spunk to an otherwise languishing lineup. Can F-Mart be a similar inspiration? Somehow I doubt it. Where Gomez already had at least three of the five MLB-ready tools (arm, fielding, and speed), Martinez doesn’t have any. One day, F-Mart will be a power hitter in the mold of Juan Gonzalez (we’re told). Otherwise, his fielding and arm are projected to be average, his running speed average to above-average, and his ability to hit for average will be, well, average. His most impactful tool will be his power, and unfortunately it hasn’t yet arrived (yes, he can hit balls out in BP, but he has only 4 HRs in 221 ABs — a rate similar to that of Luis Castillo). He’s probably running faster now than he ever will, but he’s no speed demon — it’s not like he can make up for his inability to make contact by dragging bunts, as Gomez did last year. At age 19, he’s an exciting bundle of talent, but nowhere near ready to contribute in the bigs yet. All that said, he’ll probably be promoted — but don’t rush to get him onto your fantasy team.
Dan Murphy
The 23-year-old third baseman for the B-Mets skipped all the way from 14 at-bats at short-season NY-Penn League in 2007 to AA this year and hasn’t missed a beat. He’s batting .311 with a .854 OPS though 75 games. However, his 17 errors at the hot corner and the presence of David Wright suggest he’ll need to move to another spot on the field before he moves up to the bigs (for the Mets, at least). How about moving him now and seeing what happens? I wouldn’t be surprised if B-Mets manager Mako Oliveras started inserting “LF” next to his name in the lineup. He’s a longshot, at best.
Valentino Pascucci
Some fans (including yours truly) were clamoring for Pascucci while he was in the midst of a torrid hot streak earlier this year. Since then, he has cooled considerably and scouts report he is a major liability in the field. If he’s not blasting homeruns, he’s not much help; his window of hotness may have passed.
John Rodriguez
A homecoming for the New York-born Rodriguez would make for a nice story. Unfortunately, I don’t know that he’d be much help. He’s essentially Endy Chavez, minus the speed. Good fielder, high average hitter off the bench, but no power, strikes out too often for a singles hitter, and only an average runner.
Nelson Cruz
MetsBlog reported that many teams around MLB were “interested” in Cruz, who is tearing up the PCL with a .343 average and 26 homers and 89 RBI in only 289 at-bats (take that, Josh Hamilton!). Anyone whose been reading MetsToday knows I’ve been screaming for this guy since January (and reiterated several times in March) — but hey, what do I know? Cruz can hit for power and play the field capably; his one issue is swinging and missing. But heck, that was Jack Cust’s problem, too, but he still did OK. If the Mets can pry him away for a few non-prospects, it’s worth the gamble.
Richie Sexson
Don’t laugh! Sexson came up as an outfielder / first baseman before settling in the infield. While true his Major League experience in the outfield is only 109 games, that’s still about 90 more than Tatis. And now that he’s been released by the Mariners, he can be obtained for nothing. Why not roll the dice? No risk, all reward. Besides, the Mets haven’t had a slugging, whiffing, sourpuss like this since Dave Kingman. It might be nice to have an ornery malcontent hanging around the clubhouse — the two Carloses would suddenly look like media mavens.
Billy Hall
Hall became a part-time player in May, and has been none too happy about it. He strikes out a ton, and can’t hit righties, but he’s still better than most of the Mets’ in-house options. He’d come much more cheaply than, say, Xavier Nady, and he could be emotionally inspired to prove the Brewers wrong. As an added bonus, he can also play 3B, SS, and 2B. If the cost is not too high, he’d be worth acquiring. Considering he’s already requested a trade, and he’s owed over $15M through 2010, he could be obtained for less than his true value.
Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Matt Holliday, Adam Dunn
Not happening. If any of these players come the Mets’ way, please shoot me, because it means they sent away the last dregs of an already compromised farm system.
Ken Griffey
Could the Mets steal him for a few mid-level prospects? Probably not. The only decent chips they have are the aforementioned Murphy, Evans, Mike Carp, and Jon Niese. The Reds might be interested in Niese, but likely none of the others. I wouldn’t send away any man on the current 25-man roster for Junior (i.e., Aaron Heilman) — we need every one of them.
Frank Catalanotto, Kenny Lofton
Why? I’d rather stand pat with the current crew. We don’t need any more overaged singles hitters.
Raul Ibanez
If he can be had for less than I think, by all means a solid solution. At age 36, he fits right into Minaya’s ideal age range, and the New York City native coming home will be a more exciting story than the aforementioned Rodriguez. He still collects extra-base hits, fields his position admirably, and can drive in runs. Whether he can be obtained for a fair package, however, is another story.
Bottom Line
Omar Minaya WILL make a deal. His hand is forced, and his job is on the line. Ibanez seems like the most “Minayalike” acquisition, even though it’s been reported that the Mets are no longer interested in the lefthanded-hitting outfielder. I’d guess Hall is the second option being discussed — Hall fits the “salary dump” descriptive that the Mets are using as leverage in talks, and he hits from the righthand side. Third scenario would have to be something with Baltimore, though I’m not sure what the Mets have that the Orioles want. In conclusion, the player acquired is most likely to be no one mentioned in this post.
Share your guesses and thoughts in the comments.
Pre-game to Mets Game #70
Where is Trot Nixon?
Or as my wife quipped, “why are they not trotting out Trot?”
Another observation: why in the world is Luis Aguayo on the coaching staff? Further, why is he — and not Ken Oberkfell — the third base coach?
And as MetsToday loyal reader Julie asked, “how did Sandy Alomar get a free pass?”
A good question for Tony Bernazard … oops, I mean, Omar Minaya.
Finally, how funny is it that SNY covered the Willie firing similarly to CNN’s coverage of Hurricane Katrina? Please oh please find one more pundit to tell me that the Mets didn’t handle the situation properly — I still haven’t been convinced. Maybe if you could get the editor of the junior high school newspaper to come on to tell us (pending his/her parent’s permission), I’d believe it.
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