Projections vs. Reality

I love stats. I’ve been a baseball stathead since I was a kid. I kept track of my own batting average in Little League as well as walks, extra base hits (those were easy – there weren’t many of them), and RBIs. I used to check the box scores in The Record every morning to see what the Mets’ updated stats looked like after the previous night’s game (Unless the game was on the west coast – ahhh, the dark ages), and I’ve continued that habit into the present day.

Over the past 10 years or so, I’ve been familiarizing myself with sabermetrics. I like them. I find them useful. Especially the ones I can understand. Advanced metrics have given me a whole new perspective on the careers of baseball players today, and a renewed appreciation of players from the past.

The one relatively new development I haven’t gotten on board with is the concept of statistical projections.

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The Ike Davis Decision

ike-davis

Ike Davis is making another late-season surge.

Since his recall from Triple-A Las Vegas on July 5th, Davis is hitting .300 with a .467 on base percentage, but he still hasn’t hit for much power. He only has one home run in that span. His slugging percentage is on the rise, however, thanks to the 6 doubles he’s hit in his last 10 games.

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Link Roundup: Trade Deadline, Wheeler Strong

The non-waiver trade deadline is scheduled to hit at 4 PM EDT today. To quote Douglas Adams, “I love deadlines. I love the whooshing noise they make as they go by.” For the Mets, the deadline will likely whoosh by without any trades being made. The Mets are in a delicate situation. Some pieces of the … Read more

The Annual Tease

Mejia started over again in Washington.
Mejia started over again in Washington.

Yesterday’s double header split was a small, concentrated example of how the Mets have teased us over the last few years.

They blew out the Washington Nationals, a preseason favorite to win the NL East, 11-0, in what was nearly a perfectly played game, then lost the nightcap 2-1 in typically frustrating fashion.

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Are the Mets for Real?

After a tough stretch against the Nationals and Yankees that saw the Mets drop 5 of 6, it’s time to ask the question at the back of every Mets fans mind. Are the Mets contenders this year? Will the Mets play meaningful September baseball for the first time since 2008? Luckily, thanks to sabermetrics, we can analyze some advanced statistics and trends from the season so far to try and get a handle on the 2012 Amazins.

For more information on any of the stats listed below, simply click on the stat name. 

Pythagorean W-L –  Pythagorean Won-Loss record (PWL) is much simpler than it sounds. It basically figures out

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The Mets Might be OK IF…

For all the strikes the Mets have against them this year, their biggest single issue continues to be team health. Yes, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Francisco Rodriguez all wear different uniforms now.  Yes, they are buried in a mountain of debt following the Bernie Madoff debacle, and overall mismanagement by Saul Katz and the … Read more

The Mets: Seven Reasons to Stay Tuned in 2012

Happy New Year everyone! With the holidays now in the rear view mirror and me now settling down into my new job, it’s time to take look ahead to what 2012 might hold in store for the New York Mets.

Like most of us, I have very low expectations for the team this year. Team finances aside, the starting rotation is mediocre at best, there are several defensive liabilities in the projected starting eight, the bench is horrible, there is little speed on the current roster and they play in a tough division. Still, I will watch as many Mets games as I can this year. Now that I have a steady income again, I may even make the pilgrimage from my home in Bethlehem to Citi Field to take in a game or two. I know that there is no postseason in store for the Mets in 2012, but I can think of at least seven reasons to pay attention to the team this year:

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