Who’s Next for DL, Albert Pujols and PEDs
MetsmerizedOnline hears from scouts around the league that Francisco Rodriguez could be the latest Met hiding an injury. The same article also displays some frighteningly awful numbers from K-Rod since the All-Star break.
Also on MMO, Joe D wonders if the Mets were duped in the Billy Wagner deal — and predicts dark days ahead.
Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer says we still don’t know if MLB players are clean — and invokes the name of Albert Pujols.
In somewhat related news, the courts have decided that federal agents were wrong to seize the infamous drug list and samples of 104 Major League Baseball players who allegedly tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003. Hard to take a stance on this one. On the one hand, the players’ rights of privacy were infringed upon. On the other hand, the wrongly-obtained evidence did show that many broke the law by taking illegal drugs and drugs without a prescription. As a result of this decision, Barry Bonds remains “innocent” and Victor Conte looks like a whistleblowing civil rights activist, rather than the fly-by-night drug-peddling shyster depicted by Game of Shadows. It’s up to you to decide who’s right and who’s wrong.
Back to the Mets, Metsgrrrl Caryn Rose has a primer for the team on how to be more fan-friendly.
Mets Game 106: Loss to Cardinals
Cardinals 12 Mets 7
Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse …
Thanks to Iron Mike, the Mets were able to touch the previously untouchable Joel Pineiro for 7 runs on 11 hits in only five frames. Combine that with the fact they had ace Johan Santana on the mound, and you would think this game would be a slam-dunk.
You know how ugly a missed dunk is?
Santana was not his vintage self, but appeared to have pitched just well enough to win. Backed by the offense’s seven-run outburst (two of which he drove in himself), Johan allowed five runs on nine hits in eight innings, and exited with a two-run lead in the hands of fellow Venezuelan Francisco Rodriguez.
However, Frankie shat the bed, giving up back-to-back doubles to Rick Ankiel and Julio Lugo to start the ninth. He struck out pinch-hitter Colby Rasmus, but engaged in a 7-pitch battle royale with the next hitter, Skip Schumaker. Unfortunately for the Mets, Schumaker ended the at-bat with a single to score Lugo and tie up the game. Just like that, Santana had a no-decision and K-Rod his fourth blown save.
The Mets mounted a mild two-out rally in the bottom of the ninth but it petered out when Dan Murphy fanned. The Cards loaded the bases in the top of the tenth and were given the go-ahead run when Sean Green’s first pitch plunked Mark DeRosa. Green’s fifth pitch — an 0-2 slider — was deposited into the seats by Sir Albert Pujols, completing the Cards’ eight-run blitzkrieg over the final three innings.
Green’s HBP scored a runner initially put on base by Pedro Feliciano, so Feliciano was tagged with the loss — his fourth of the year.
Notes
To add injury to insult, Luis Castillo slipped on his way down the dugout steps and sprained his ankle after grounding out in the seventh. He’ll likely miss a few games as a result. Shame, considering how well Castillo has been playing of late.
Have to wonder why Brian Stokes threw only one pitch in the tenth. Jerry Manuel chose to play the Matchup Game one day after the bullpen was severely stretched, using Stokes, Feliciano, and Green. What exactly was the plan if the game went 11 or 12 frames? I suppose we would have seen Nelson Figueroa at some point.
K-Rod seemed to be having trouble with his release point, as he left many of his breaking pitches up in the strike zone — he wasn’t “finishing” his pitches, releasing just a hair too early. He threw a season-high 41 pitches, so with Wednesday’s game beginning in the early afternoon, you can forget about his availability. Additionally, Feliciano has thrown 40 pitches over the past 5 days, and 79 over the last 9. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but remember he’s warming up in the bullpen before coming into these games, so add in another 15-20 pitches at minimum per day.
In all honesty, I felt a slight pang of concern when Manuel pinch-hit for Santana in the bottom of the 8th. I know he was having a rough night, and had thrown 103 pitches, but there was this thought in my head suggesting that the best plan was to leave Johan in there. Naturally, if he was left in and the Mets lost as a result, I’d be raking Manuel over the coals for making such a boneheaded decision. Maybe the problem is that I’ve been trained to expect the worst from this ballclub.
Pujols, who had been “slumping” recently (1 for his last 13 coming into the game), was 4-for-5 with 2 HRs, 3 runs scored, and 5 RBI. Hate to think what might’ve happened if he were on a hot streak.
Next Mets Game
The final game of the series occurs at 12:10 PM on Wednesday afternoon. Jonathan Niese faces Kyle Lohse.
Mets Game 68: Win Over Cardinals
Mets 6 Cardinals 4
Miracles DO happen.
Fresh off the news that yet another All-Star and “core” player — Carlos Beltran — was unavailable due to injury, the bedgraggled and beleaguered New York Mets pulled off the impossible, beating the St. Louis Cardinals in an official Major League Baseball game.
Tim Redding was spectacular — OK, maybe not spectacular, but so surprisingly effective it felt spectacular — in holding the Cards to a mere four runs over seven full innings of work to earn his first victory as a New York Met. Key to Redding’s performance was his handcuffing of Sir Albert Pujols, holding the Great One to a mere double and one measly run scored. If you can stymie Pujols, then the rest of the Redbird lineup is cake in comparison. Indeed, Redding allowed a total of five hits and one walk to the Cardinals, and struck out four.
Meanwhile, the supposedly shorthanded Mets offense exploded for 14 hits, 4 walks, and 6 runs, led by teacher’s pet Omir Santos and the previously contemptible Luis Castillo, who were perfect on the day, combining to go 7-for-7 with a walk, 3 runs scored, and 2 RBI. Five Mets drove in a run or more, and Danny Murphy electrified the crowd with one of those “over the fence” hits that fans in other cities refer to as a “home run”.
Supporting Redding’s winning performance was the bullpen, which held the St. Louis batsmen scoreless through the final three innings of play. Jon Switzer struck out one and allowed a hit in his 1/3 inning of work, Brian Stokes (yes he’s still on the roster) retired the only batter he faced, and Francisco Rodriguez cut up the Cards in the ninth for his 19th save of the season.
Notes
Alex Cora was 2-for-4 with a walk and 2 RBI from the leadoff spot, and David Wright had one single and two walks. In addition to the four-bagger, Murphy also singled and scored on a Ryan Church sacrifice fly in the first frame.
Jeremy Reed was 0-for-4 starting in centerfield in place of Beltran. Wouldn’t it just figure, the guy was a firestorm in spring training, hot as a griddle through April and May, and now that he finally has been forced into an opportunity to play, his bat is cold as ice. More bad luck for the Mets, and terrible luck for Reed. Expect to see Ryan Church and/or Fernando Martinez getting time in centerfield as a result.
In the fourth inning, Santos scored on a bomb to left-center by Luis Castillo. On the relay home, Brendan Ryan threw a perfect strike to catcher Yadier Molina, but the throw was a few feet short of Molina, who allowed the ball to skip through his legs. Ryan was charged with the error and SNY announcer Keith Hernandez spent considerable time criticizing Ryan for having his back to the plate as he received the relay throw from left fielder Rick Ankiel, going so far as to demonstrate from the broadcast booth the proper way to position oneself for accepting the throw from the outfield. However, Hernandez failed to notice, nor mention, the reason WHY Ryan had his back to the plate when he caught the ball — it was because the throw by Ankiel sailed to Ryan’s right side, and Ryan had to quickly re-position his feet and move his entire body to the right in order to catch the throw cleanly. Originally, Ryan was getting himself into the proper position (left shoulder pointed toward the target) but once the ball tailed the “wrong” way, he had no choice but to turn his back to home plate. What made Keith’s diatribe even more ridiculously pointless was the fact that Ryan made a nearly perfect throw. Despite being completely turned around, with his back to the plate, Ryan spun and let loose a fine throw that was perfectly on line, and only about 5-10 feet short of home plate. Watching the replay several times, it looked to me like Molina was at fault for not handling the short-hop — he allowed the ball to handcuff him by reaching out and stabbing for it instead of allowing it to come to him. And, in defense of both Ankiel and Ryan, the conditions were rainy and wet, and the ball was likely slick, making it very hard to get a good grip and probably the reason Ankiel’s throw was to Ryan’s right side instead of his left. For all you kids out there, yes, Mr. Hernandez did demonstrate the proper fundamental in receiving a relay throw — but understand that circumstances can sometimes force you out of the ideal position, in which case you have to “get creative”.
Next Mets Game
The Mets will attempt to again attain the impossible on Tuesday night when they host the Cardinals at Citi Field at 7:10 PM. Livan Hernandez faces Joel Pineiro.
Mets Series Preview: Cardinals
The New York Mets visit St. Louis for the first time in 2009 to play the Cardinals in a three-game series.
Pitching Matchups:
Game 1: Oliver Perez vs. Todd Wellemeyer
Which Ollie will show — Dr. Perez or Mr. Hyde? Nobody knows. Wellemeyer is a prime example of why Dave Duncan cannot be paid enough to be an MLB pitching coach.
Game 2: John Maine vs. Joel Pineiro
Will John Maine ever get past the fifth inning? Pineiro, another scrap heap success story for Duncan’s resume, has a perfect 2-0 record but a 5.40 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP thus far. Last year, the Mets battered him for 21 hits, 2 homers, and 9 runs in 9 innings, so perhaps this can be the game in which they finally send some runners home.
Game 3: Livan Hernandez vs. Kyle Lohse
This is a day game, 1:40 PM start. Before the season, I predicted Livan would be the Mets’ third-best starter before it was all said and done. He’s currently #2, which is as much a credit to Hernandez as it is due to the erratic performances of the other Mets starters. Lohse is off to a hot start, with two wins and a 2.57 ERA. Lohse was 1-1 vs. the Mets last season.
Offensive Concerns
The Mets are hitting .236 with RISP, with David Wright going 2-for-13 by himself. Wright, however, is 5-for-7 lifetime against Wellemeyer, and could shake his slump in the opener. Luis Castillo is currently leading the Mets with a .389 AVG while Ryan Church leads the team with 6 doubles, a .477 OBP, and a 1.018 OPS.
The Cardinals still have Albert Pujols, and surround him with a fairly balanced attack of LH and RH hitters. Ryan Ludwick is so far showing that 2008 was not a fluke, leading the Cardinals in the three major offensive categories. He’s batting .405 with 5 HR and 15 RBI through 10 games. However, another player to watch is 3B fill-in Brian Barden, who has slugged 3 dingers and 19 total bases in 22 ABs and is hitting .409.
Conclusion
Hard to say which way this series will go. Much depends on the efforts of Perez and Maine, who have become the poster children for inconsistency.
2009 Fantasy Projections – First Base
Kingman was doing dual position eligibility before it was fashionable
My name is John and I regret nothing… Except for that last burrito.
When last we met, I was telling you that Ramon Castro was worth a buck and Ronny Paulino might be working in a car wash by mid-August. Only time will tell…
First Base Rankings
If you’re not getting Pujols, try to grab Gonzalez on the cheap. I think you’ll be overpaying for Howard, Berkman and Fielder, in most cases. Let me explain…
Albert Pujols (.320-35-120) – One of the few positions where there is no doubt about who is the best offensive player.
Ryan Howard (.250-40-120) – His BA leaves alot to be desired, but I think it may be higher. You can’t argue with his HR/RBI totals.
Adrian Gonzalez (.300-30-100) – The most underrated of this bunch. His HR/RBI totals have increased each of the past 3 seasons and he has hit around .279 or above in each of those years. If he brings his Petco numbers up (only .269 last season), he could challenge Howard for the #2 spot.
Lance Berkman (.310-25-95) – I’ve been waiting for Berkman to fall off for a couple of years – his HR totals have fallen three consecutive years but he’s still a solid pick. Houston’s lineup could hold down his RBI totals
Prince Fielder (.275-28-100) – People are still drafting Fielder with hopes that he will return to the 50 HR slugger he was in 2007. I think those numbers will prove to be a statistical outlier. You can count on Fielder for something in the .280-30-100 ballpark for years to come. In future drafts, he may be a steal at those numbers, but not this season.
Sleeper – James Loney (.310-18-100) – I absolutely love watching Loney hit. I’m not sure if he’ll ever be more than a 20HR guy, but he drives the ball well into the gaps and he is only 24. The Dodgers lineup could provide plenty of RBI opportunities, depending on Manny’s willingness to play and Torre’s willingness to put Loney into the #5 hole. If it all comes together for him, this could be his breakout season.
NL East
A much better crop of players than we saw in the NL East catcher rankings… However, two of my top five guys will start the season at different positions.
Ryan Howard (.250-40-120) – See above
Adam Dunn (.240-40-100) – I expect him to gain 1B eligibility in most leagues at some point. If you need another 1B to cover for him, take a shot on a guy like James Loney or even Nick Johnson.
Carlos Delgado (.260-30-100) – People were calling for Delgado to be cut in May 2008. By the end of the year, he was on fire. He’s still got some pop, but he’s old and he has lost batspeed. He could end up outperforming Ryan Howard or falling out of the top 5 in the NL East… I think his HR/RBI numbers will be fine, somewhere between ‘07 and ‘08. Get him if he falls on draft day.
Jorge Cantu (.275-25-90) – Another guy who should wind up playing 1B before too long. I’m not sold on him repeating last season’s numbers – and those numbers don’t make him a good choice at 1B, but if you get him late he could end up being a nice reserve player with dual position eligibility.
Sleeper: Nick Johnson (.280-10-65) – If Johnson stays healthy (unlikely), he could have a nice season, but he’s hardly worth considering in anything other than a deep NL-only league. He plays the game the right way and that should count for something, but it doesn’t. Oh well.
Mets Spring Training Game 3
I’m not counting the game against the Italians, so game three is the one the Mets played against the Cardinals.
The final score was Cardinals 9, Mets 8, but we’re not concerned with the score prior to April. Once again, we’ll focus on specific players and other errata.
Livan Hernandez
I must admit I’m personally pulling hard for “Not-Duque” to make this club, so my analysis may be rose-colored. I liked the way his fastball was sinking and was inducing ground balls. His slow curve was a little scary, though, hanging up there like a balloon. Can he get a way with it? We’ll see. He had some command issues when he got lazy with his follow-through, but otherwise was hitting his spots — something he must do to be successful.
Freddy Garcia
Can I pull for two starters to take one rotation spot? Unfortunately for Freddy, he didn’t look so hot. His fastball was flat, at a very hittable velocity, and was all over the place. His curve — important to his success — had little bite and also was hard for him to spot. To me he looks like he’s not yet as strong as he needs to be — and a 100% healthy and strong shoulder is vitally important since he doesn’t use his legs or momentum at all to power the ball. Still, I like the Mets rolling the dice on him, provided he will accept a AAA demotion to build himself back up.
Carlos Delgado
Carlos is looking great at the plate, waiting long on pitches, and keeping the hands back the way he did when he was in Toronto. He does this nearly every spring, though … will he keep this approach once April arrives? I said it last year, and I’ll say it again: Delgado is key to the Mets’ success.
David Wright
The only reason David made an error was because Gary Cohen and Keith Hernandez made a point to talk about his defense and Gold Gloves. Jinxed!
Reese Havens
He didn’t play, but we were able to see him do an interview with Kevin Burkhardt. I’m very high on this kid, and think he can climb the ladder quickly if he can stay healthy. He’s an all-around ballplayer, and appears as though he’s already comfortable in front of the camera — a key to succeeding in NYC. The “step program”, though, didn’t sound particularly intriguing. Not that it needs to be.
Casey Fossum
The little lefty was effective, pitching a 1-2-3 inning in his first frame and allowing no runs and one hit over two innings. However his stuff looked ordinary and his fastball didn’t have much movement. His curveballs — he throws them at several speeds and angles — were always his forte, and I only saw him throw a handful, which were mostly the flat, low-80s, sideways, sweeping breaker (though, he did mix in one super-slow roundhouse that conjured memories of Ross Baumgartner). Hard to make an analysis on him just yet. I do like the way he uses momentum to power the baseball — very old school.
Connor Robertson
Robertson, like Fossum, was effective in the boxscore but didn’t throw enough to help make much of an evaluation. He reminded me of Jon Adkins — a below-average, straight fastball, average breaking ball. But his 1-2-3 inning consisted of about five pitches, so it’s impossible to make a judgment.
Adam Bostick
You can see why scouts have salivated over Bostick for years despite his persistently underwhelming performances. He’s big, tall, lefty, and comes from a low 3/4 angle with decent velocity, reminiscent of John Candelaria or even Ollie Perez. But his command is below average and his fastball looks like it stays on one plane (no downward movement). He’ll need to do two things to make the big leagues: concentrate on placing the fastball in one specific spot consistently and mixing it up with an average slider. Even then, his ceiling is as a LOOGY.
Albert Pujols
Keith Hernandez mentioned that “El Hombre” looked like he might have dropped a few pounds, and looked a little thinner in the face. I thought the same thing. Maybe he’s no longer taking those “B12″ shots. Hmm.
Jason Motte
The Cardinals righty reminds me of a combination of Eric Gagne, Derrick Turnbow, and Keith Foulke. He throws pretty hard, and looks scary. But he only throws one pitch, so nothing to be concerned about. If he ever develops a split-fingered fastball, the Cards may have something.
Mike Shannon
Nice to hear that the Cardinals broadcaster has a fine restaurant with a great wine list. He certainly is among the worst baseball broadcasters in history — Tim McCarver and Joe Buck included (funny, all the awful announcers come from St. Louis).
Royce Ring’s Beard
Hmm … hard to figure how much his beard truly affects his performance. He’s had it now for at least two years, and he’s still not come close to the early comparisons to Randy Myers.
The Mets travel to Lakeland, Florida, to play the Tigers on Saturday at 1:10 pm. However it does not appear that the game will be televised, so instead, get your fill by posting your comments below.
Most Valuable What?
One of the latest headlines was the news that St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols was the recipient of the National League Most Valuable Player Award, as voted by the Baseball Writers Association. Was Pujols really the “most valuable”, however? Is it even arguable that he was the “best player” in the NL during the 2008 season?
From the Merriam-Webster online dictionary:
valuable
Pronunciation:
\val-yu-bel\
Function:
adjective
Date:
circa 15761 a: having monetary value b: worth a good price2 a: having desirable or esteemed characteristics or qualities
b: of great use or service
Based on the above, it can absolutely be argued that Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols is valuable. He does have monetary value, after all, and is worth a good price. He definitely has desirable AND esteemed characteristics and qualities. And, yes, he is of great use or service. But is he MOST valuable?
It has always been my belief that a baseball MVP should be the player who is “most valuable” to their particular team. Further, that he should be as close to indispensable as possible. In other words, it should be assumed that his team would not have been able to manage its success without him. Lastly, it is my opinion that an MVP should almost always come from a team that participates in the postseason, or at the very least a team that surprisingly finished in second. And that player should be so valuable, that had he been removed from his team, his team probably would not have been able to finish as successfully as they did.
Again, this is my hard-boiled opinion on what the MVP should be. Many argue that it simply should be the player who had “the best year”, regardless of where his team finishes.
In either case, it’s hard to understand the choice of Albert Pujols as the NL 2008 MVP.
Let’s get this out of the way: I hate Albert Pujols, while simultaneously respecting the fact that he is the second-most talented all-around ballplayer on the planet, next to A-Rod. He may even transcend A-Rod at this point in each player’s career. But, talent alone does not make him “most valuable”, and doesn’t make him “best” in a particular year. His performance in 2008 was very good — it was borderline outstanding. But it wasn’t the “best” of 2008, and it certainly wasn’t “most valuable”.
First of all, his basic, non-SABR numbers: .357 AVG., 37 HRs, 116 RBI, 100 Runs. I focus on the non-SABR numbers because these have been the ultimate, final distillation of the value of a player, in every era going back a hundred years. You want to know who is most valuable based on VORP, Runs Created, etc., go to Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus (both fine resources) — we don’t do that here, and I’m openly willing to admit the atrocity of my old-school, hard-headed ignorance.
But I digress … back to the Pujols story.
Pujols’ .357 batting average is indeed outstanding. But it wasn’t the best. His 37 homers were also a strong output, but it was far from the best. The 116 RBI are good, but again, not the best. To score 100 runs is a great and unusual feat, but, not the best. What Pujols did better than anyone else in the NL was collect total bases, which led to his leading the league in slugging, and when combined with his high walk rate allowed him to lead the NL in OPS. So from the single-minded perspective of the Billy Beane worshipping sabermetrician, Pujols’ NL-leading 1.114 On-Base-Plus-Slugging percentage was enough to deem him the “best” player, or perhaps “player of the year”. But if that OPS is also evidence that he is the “most valuable”, I have a bone to pick.
The main reason for my argument is this: in spite of this monstrous OPS, the St. Louis Cardinals finished in fourth place. FOURTH PLACE. Say all you want about the value of getting on base — bottom line is, Pujols’ individual performance meant zilch to the Cardinals’ final win total. I don’t care that he also led the league in “batting wins” — those didn’t help the Cardinals smell the wild card. I may be going out on a limb here, but I believe sincerely that St. Louis would have finished in fourth place even if they didn’t have Albert Pujols. Crazy, I know, but I just don’t see either the Pirates or the Reds being much of a threat last year.
On the other hand, there is Ryan Howard, who led the NL in homeruns and in RBI. For those unaware, RBI stands for “runs batted in”. When a player bats in a run, that means his team scores. When his team scores more than the other team, it results in a “win”. The more “wins” a team has, the closer it gets to being the “world champion”.
In addition to batting in 146 runs (30 more than Pujols), Howard also scored 105 (5 more than Pujols). So it can be argued that Howard was 35 runs better than Pujols.
The knock against Howard was his low batting average — only .251. Well, nobody’s perfect. The point is, when Howard DID hit safely, he usually either drove in a run, or eventually scored one.
Those 146 RBI and 105 runs scored helped his team finish in first place, and win the World Series. Anyone who witnessed Howard’s barrage on NL pitching in September, when he mashed at .352 clip and drove in 32 runs in 25 games, can account for his “value” in propelling the Phillies over the Mets in the final weeks of the season. Yes, Pujols also had an outstanding finish, but all he did was help his team get a little closer to third place. I’m sorry but the drama leaves something to be desired.
And when it comes right down to it, Pujols wasn’t even the second-most valuable player in the NL. I’d give that to Manny Ramirez, hands-down. Anyone who thinks the Dodgers would have made their way to the postseason without Manny, either wasn’t paying attention or doesn’t understand baseball. No Manny = no playoffs for the Dodgers. That in itself makes Ramirez more valuable than Pujols — he singlehandedly carried a .500 team to the NLCS.
Finally, there’s enough argument to suggest that Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and C.C. Sabathia were more valuable to their teams than Albert Pujols.
But in the end, it appears that this year’s vote had very little to do with a player’s value to his team, and more about the player with the most INDIVIDUAL value. Hooray to the number-crunching SABR crowd — you’ve won this round. Maybe that’s why I’m getting more and more disgusted with MLB with each passing year. At every turn, it’s trying to be the NBA, focused on promoting individual players and the stats and awards they can accumulate, rather than the concept of team. Which is too bad, because it’s with a cohesive team that the best things get done in both sport and society.
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