Mets Shopping for Halladay?
The New York Times is reporting that the Mets may go after Roy Halladay, if in fact the Toronto Blue Jays make him available this winter.
As MetsBlog notes, the fact the Mets have little in the way of near-ready prospects in their farm system may not matter, since few teams will be able to handle the financial commitment that is required to keep Halladay away from free agency. In other words, it could be another Johan Santana situation — whereby the Mets acquired the star lefthander more because the deep-pocketed Yankees and Red Sox walked away from the table rather than because the Mets had the best package of players.
If indeed the Mets make a pitch for Halladay, and pull of a Santana-like trade-and-sign deal that totals over a hundred million dollars, it will be another case of the Mets using their same old shortsighted, knee-jerk strategy of “building a winner”.
Getting Halladay would be great, no question (as Jerry Manuel likes to say). But it’s just another band-aid that will send the Mets backward over the long term.
The Mets had the opportunity to obtain one of the top three pitchers in MLB last winter — and would not have had to give up a single player. We discussed right here on MetsToday last November that the Mets should go after C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia wound up signing a 7-year, $161M contract — about the same deal that Halladay is likely to get. The big difference, however, is that Sabathia was only 27 when he began that contract, and Halladay will be 33.
Maybe they would have not have been able to top the Yankees (even though Sabathia preferred the NL), but that’s not the point — the point is that the Mets never even sniffed Sabathia’s way. They were completely satisfied to bring back another young lefthander at a much cheaper cost, and to rest on the laurels of the “big splash” they made in the bullpen (signing K-Rod, trading for Putz).
Last winter the general consensus was that the Mets needed to fix the bullpen. The PR message built was, “address the bullpen problem, and the Mets will go to the World Series”. So once they signed Frankie Fantastik and obtained J.J. Putz, there was every reason to buy season tickets.
In the end, they overspent on K-Rod, overspent on Oliver Perez, and both overspent and over-traded for J.J. Putz — a total expenditure of $96M and 7 players for band-aids to stop the bleeding. By spending all that dough and emptying their farm system, you couldn’t say they weren’t trying — and it’s now easy for them to look back and say “hey, we did what we had to do, we fixed the bullpen”.
Fast-forward one year and the Mets have new wounds opening … with more band-aids on the way.
Mets Game 72: Loss to Yankees
Yankees 9 Mets 1
Not a great evening for Mike Pelfrey, nor the Mets.
Focusing on going the other way, the Yankees pounced on Pelfrey in the second frame, and the defense behind him resembled the Keystone Cops, as four runs — two unearned — crossed the plate in an inning that was one hit away from complete disaster.
Pelfrey allowed four hits and a walk in the frame, while David Wright, Alex Cora, and Nick Evans all made key errors to give the Yankees a lead that would never be threatened.
Pelf did settle down after the second, retiring nine of the last ten batters he faced, but the damage was done. Down by four with C.C. Sabathia on top of his game, the Mets had little chance to mount a comeback.
Sabathia did not allow a hit until the fifth frame, when Gary Sheffield led off with a line drive bullet into the left field stands. By the time he left the mound, Sabathia threw seven stellar innings, allowing only three hits, one run, no walks, and striking out eight.
Notes
Although only four runs crossed the plate, the Mets were completely devastated in the second inning. Pelfrey in particular lost his cool, and the team as a whole looked tense, confused, or beaten for the remainder of the game.
During that fateful second inning, Mark Teixeira ripped a rocket of a ground ball right at Nick Evans, which Evans mishandled, allowing Brett Gardner to score and Teixeira to reach first safely. What’s interesting is that even though the ball was hit so hard and directly to Evans, Teixeira nonetheless busted it out of the box. Since the ball only bounced a few feet away from the bag, there’s no way Teixeira would have been safe had he not hustle all the way. So in two straight series, he demonstrated to Mets fans what good can occur when players go all out, all the time.
In the top of the seventh, with Alex Rodriguez on first base, Robbie Cano hit a liner to left field that was stretched into a double when Fernando Tatis did not make a direct throw to second base. The SNY crew couldn’t figure out why Tatis didn’t throw to second base, but had we seen a wider view of the field, we would have seen that cutoff man Alex Cora had positioned himself between Tatis and third base, as A-Rod was going from first to third. So I would guess that Tatis was somewhat confused about where to go with the ball, since he doesn’t play left field very often and in that split second decided to get the ball to the cutoff man.
Elmer Dessens and Sean Green combined to allow 5 runs out of the bullpen.
No one in the NL East won this evening, so the standings remain status quo. Does anyone want to take this division?
Next Mets Game
The Mets and Yankees do it again at 7:10 PM on Saturday night. Tim Redding faces A.J. Burnett. Those outside the NY-Metro area can see the game on the MLB Network or listen on XM 183, while us locals have the choice among WPIX, YES and WFAN.
C.C. Sabathia vs. the Mets
Tonight, the Yankees send C.C. Sabathia to the mound at Citi Field against the Mets. It’s been a long time since Sabathia started against the Mets, and the last time didn’t go so well for our hometown favorites.
On June 16, 2004, Sabathia threw 8 solid innings of six-hit, one-run ball, as the Indians molested the Mets 9-1 at Shea Stadium in front of a paltry crowd of 29,512.
How long ago was that game? The Mets’ starter was Matt Ginter, Gerald “Ice” Williams was the leadoff hitter, Mike Piazza was the first baseman, Jason Phillips was behind the plate, and Art Howe was the manager.
Here is the entire Mets starting lineup on that ugly night:
Gerald Williams CF
Kaz Matsui SS
Mike Piazza 1B
Cliff Floyd LF
Todd Zeile 3B
Ty Wigginton 2B
Jason Phillips C
Mike Cameron CF
Matt Ginter P
Makes one wonder: how much different will tonight’s lineup look five years from now?
Buy Me To the Moon
With the recent signing of Mark Teixeira for $180M over 8 years, the New York Yankees have spent a total of $423.5M on three free agents this winter.
Add in the $248M still owed on Alex Rodriguez’s contract, and the Bronx Bombers have committed over a half-billion dollars ($671.5M to be exact) to three ballplayers over the next eight years.
If that’s not an attempt to buy a World Series Trophy, I don’t know what is.
Based on this winter’s signings, the Steinbrenners clearly did not have any investments with Bernard Madoff (unlike another baseball team father-son ownership based in New York City … though, we’re assured that little financial scandal won’t affect their organization in any way).
The immediate reaction by 99% of people is that this enormous outlay of cash by the Yankees is despicable, unfair, and/or “exactly what’s wrong with baseball”.
Hmm ….
On the one hand, it’s slightly upsetting that Teixeira did not choose to join his hometown Baltimore Orioles, who have some bright young arms, athletic outfielders, and a future superstar catcher on their horizon. Adding a solid All-Star bat like Teixeira might have been the last piece of the puzzle to push them into contention at some point within the next 2-3 years. Already the toughest division in baseball, the AL East would have been even more competitive if the O’s joined the ranks of the elite.
But now, it’s a three-team race among the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays — who have to prove 2008 wasn’t a Cinderella season. No matter how much the Blue Jays and Orioles improve, it’s doubtful they’ll sniff the postseason before 2012. Though, you never know.
Does that make the Yankees a big bully? Is their spending this winter as obnoxious as everyone says — particularly in this difficult economy? Are the Yankees singlehandedly “ruining baseball” ?
No, no, and no. And no to any other such nonsense.
First off, the Yankees had over $80M come off their 2008 budget thanks to the expiring contracts of Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, and Kyle Farnsworth (yes, I know Farnsworth was traded, but it was nonetheless another $5.5M off the books). With all that coming off, it’s entirely possible that the Yankees’ 2009 budget will be BELOW their 2008 spending even with the additions of Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett. Heck, they may still have room to sign Manny Ramirez. Yes, their payroll is still going to be a good $70M or $80M more than the next-highest spenders, but they’re not going above and beyond what they’ve been doing since 2003. And guess what? Despite spending more than any other team for the last five years, the Yankees have yet to make a World Series appearance. Huh.
Secondly, while every other team in baseball is crying about the economy, claiming they can’t afford to pay for free agents — and in many cases, laying off non-player personnel — the Yankees are HIRING. If the Steinbrenners follow up these big free agent signings with an announcement that they’re cutting their administrative staff or stadium maintenance people, then something stinks. But that doesn’t appear to be the case. In these tough times, I openly applaud business owners like the Steinbrenners, who instead of laying off people for fear what the future might bring, are instead investing in their future and seeking to improve and grow their product.
Obviously, the Yankees can afford to pay all these ridiculous salaries — they must be doing well. Would you prefer that they sat on their money, or hid it somewhere, rather than doling it out? Consider this: with the signings of three All-Stars, how many Teixeira, Sabathia, and Burnett Yankee jerseys and T-shirts will be sold? How many more baseball gloves with those players’ “autographs” on them will leave the shelves? How much money will Teixeira, Sabathia, and Burnett themselves spend, now that they’re ultra-millionaires? My guess is all three will put at least some of their earnings back into the economy, as well as into charitable foundations. Spending money in these tough times shouldn’t be frowned upon — it should be embraced and encouraged. Somehow, it all trickles down, eventually.
Finally, it is not the Yankees “ruining the game” by spending boatloads of money. If anyone is “ruining” baseball, it’s the San Diego Padres, who are dismantling their team piece by piece because their owners are in the midst of a divorce. To me, it is vastly more despicable for a teams like the Padres and Marlins to run “fire sales” in an effort to reduce payroll — and in effect, put a minor league team on the field. I understand that small market teams can’t compete, financially, with the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc. But if they can’t figure out a way to generate the minimum $40-60M to cover a Major League payroll, then either find a new management team, sell the club, or go to the minors — in my opinion there are too many MLB teams anyway.
Which brings me to another point that isn’t related to the Yankees, but with MLB in general. We’ve heard that the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays have been “forced” to lay off administrative personnel during this offseason. It’s also been reported that MLB had to cut their staff significantly, specifically in their MLB Advanced Media / website department. Can someone please explain to me how and why there are teams and MLB itself cutting staff when they made more money in the last five years than they ever have in history?
It was widely reported last winter that MLB.com paid out $30M to each club, after it generated nearly $400M in revenues. MLB Advanced Media’s growth has been fast and furious, and I find it VERY hard to believe that revenues were down in 2008 — if they were, they couldn’t be down by much. MLB.com’s user base, paid subscriptions, and traffic all went up. In addition, it was also widely reported that MLB as a whole made over six billion dollars in 2007 — an all-time high — and set attendance records. Following that momentum, several teams during the 2008 season set records again for attendance and ticket sales (including our New York Mets). So for the last two or three years, baseball has been absolutely booming, bringing in money faster than they count it — yet, teams (other than the Yankees) are crying poverty and adding to the unemployment rate. Is it me, or is something rotten in Denmark?
Perhaps I’m in the minority, but the money being thrown around by the Yankees is, to me, refreshing. At least there is one team doing well enough to feel they can put their profits back into the company, with an eye toward improvement and long-term growth.
Happy holidays.
Yankees Make Offer to Sabathia
Buster Olney is reporting on ESPN radio that the Yankees have tendered an official offer to C.C. Sabathia for 6 years and slightly more than $137.5M.
There are no web links to support this, but it is being reported on 1050 ESPN Radio and on XM MLB 175.
If true, the only surprise is that it’s not 7 years / $150M …. though the Yankees may be willing to go that far. While I doubt another team will top that offer, I stand by my feeling that the Mets can and should get in on the bidding.
C.C. to the Mets – Why Not ?
The buzz is that trades will be held up while C.C. Sabathia mulls over the millions that will be thrown his way over the next few weeks, and that this fact could hold up a big trade made by the Mets. The three amigos at The Daily News go so far as to suggest that the Mets could be in on the bidding for the big lefthander, though most sources are poo-pooing that conjecture.
Here’s my question: why NOT ?
The big excuse is that it doesn’t make sense to have two starters making over $20M a year. Again, WHY NOT?
It’s OK for the Mets to have two position players hogging $35M (Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran), but it’s not OK to have two starters combine for $5M more? Especially when at least one of those two Carloses is nowhere near the best at his position? C.C. Sabathia is one of the best three lefthanders in all of MLB, with Johan Santana as #1 or #2. Having those two aces heading the rotation is not only a near-guarantee of a postseason appearance, it makes the Mets a shoo-in to get to the World Series.
Look back to the 2003 Astros, who were unstoppable in a short series with Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens leading the way. Or a better comp — Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson of the 2001 Diamondbacks. Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale of the Dodgers in the ’60s.
Of course, the Mets can get to the postseason without having two aces in the rotation. My point is that it is really hard not to be successful when you have dominating pitchers taking the ball two out of every five days — no matter who is in your bullpen and what your lineup looks like.
Some fans are expecting the Mets to sign Derek Lowe, a top closer, and a lower-tier starter this winter. Lowe is going to get at least $13M per year, if not more. K-Rod wants $15M, and a “lower-tier” starter is probably going to cost another $6-7M — though, I’m not sure who those guys might be (Randy Wolf? Braden Looper?). Right there is $35M; if you want to replace K-Rod with the cheaper Brian Fuentes you’re talking closer to $30M. If you had $30M to spend, would you sprinkle it around three guys or would you go for Sabathia and a closer?
I think the Mets can sign both Sabathia AND K-Rod, and figure out the rest from within the organization, making a few trades and signing low-risk, low-cost free agents. Why shouldn’t they be able to do so? This isn’t Minneapolis, this is New York City. The Mets have already sold out Citi Field and will be rolling in dough. The money they make from ticket sales alone will be more than double last year’s payroll, so it’s not like they can’t afford it.
Let’s look at it another way. C.C. Sabathia is 27 years old right now, and will be 28 at the All-Star break. Francisco Rodriguez turns 27 in January. Both are going into their prime years.
Compare that to other arms on the market, specifically those who will receive long-term, big-dollar contracts — meaning, 4+ years. Derek Lowe will be 36 next year. Oliver Perez, 28. Ben Sheets, 31. Brian Fuentes, 34. Jon Garland, 30. A.J. Burnett, 32. Of that group, are you comfortable giving any of them four years and $40M+ ? Maybe Ollie, but his inconsistency makes you worry. Burnett and Sheets have frightening injury histories, and are already in their 30s. Garland seems safe, but he’ll command at least 4 years / $50M — is he worth that?
In other words, who do you think has a better chance of returning full value on his contract? Sabathia over seven years, $150M, or Derek Lowe at four / $60M ? Tough call perhaps, but personally I’m not seeing Lowe as a $15M pitcher at ages 37 and 38 — I’m not sure he’s worth it at 36 and 37. In contrast, Sabathia is hands-down worth the big bucks from now through age 30 at least — that’s three years. The question is whether he’ll be an ace during the second half of his contract, at ages 31, 32, 33, and 34. Or, in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015. Maybe by 2014, $20M for a middle-rotation starter will be a bargain, in which case, his salary may be right on target. After all, would you have thought back in 2001 that Jeff Suppan or Ted Lilly would get $12M a year? I’ll help you: Randy Johnson was making $12M in 2001. Curt Schilling made $6.5M, and was a year before “cashing in” on a $10M-per-year deal. Those two were the best in baseball at the time. Suddenly, that $20M / year is not so unreasonable.
Of course, there is the concern of spending all that money and then the arm breaking down. And that is a fairly legitimate concern — Carl Pavano is a prime example. Pedro Martinez is another. But, neither Pavano nor Martinez were among the best 5 pitchers in MLB at the time of their signing, and Pedro was already 33 AND had a history of shoulder problems. Both C.C. and K-Rod are healthy and youthful, and with today’s medicine, most pitchers come back from even the most severe arm injuries.
If the Mets had the cojones to sign one or both of these top arms, every other question mark on the field instantly becomes less questionable. With CC and Johan in the rotation and K-Rod closing, a platoon of Fernando Tatis and Dan Murphy in left field is quite palatable. Brian Schneider’s offense is less concerning. The middle relievers will have less innings to cover, and won’t be as overworked — that alone will make them more effective (and really, do the Mets have a better shot of shoring up the bullpen problem by over-spending on free agents, or by reducing the innings load?). Luis Castillo remains the weak link, yes, but so what, since there’s every indication that he’ll be at second base even if the Mets don’t sign a big-name free agent? And if you’re that bent on removing Castillo, fine, give a cheap, one-year flyer to Ray Durham, David Eckstein, or Mark Loretta.
I’m not on board with the idea that the Mets have as many “holes” as some would like us to believe. Second base is an issue more for fans than the Mets, and is only glaring because there are solid, immovable players at nearly every other position. Similarly, the middle relief as currently constituted will be fine if managed properly. Left field is a concern, but less of a concern if the pitching is addressed. The biggest issue the Mets have is filling out the rotation. Santana and Mike Pelfrey are the only guarantees; if they added Sabathia that pushes Big Pelf to #3 and sore-shouldered Maine to #4. The fifth spot is an issue for every MLB rotation, and the Mets will be able to find someone to fill it. Carlos Delgado is staying put, and though some might prefer a catcher other than Brian Schneider, the Mets can live with him back there — especially if after adding another ace and a lights-out closer, they don’t need to score as many runs. Personally, I’d be completely fine if the “offseason overhaul” consisted of signing Sabathia, K-Rod, and a few minor low-risk / high-reward / one-year guys.
Addendum: The 2010 Free Agent Class
One last point: the best of next winter’s potential free-agent class includes Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Vlad Guerrero, and Magglio Ordonez among position players, and Rich Harden, Tim Hudson, Cliff Lee, Brett Myers, and Mike Gonzalez among the pitchers. Those are the BEST names who might be available. While I think there’s a possibility the Mets could go for one of those bats, only Crawford will be under 30 when the 2010 season comes around. Further, I’m not sure any of those pitchers would be worth the large contracts they’ll command — none has the potential to outperform Sabathia or K-Rod from 2010-2014. In other words, if the Mets are going to spend big bucks on long-term deals, this winter is the time to do it.
*** UPDATE ***
This from our pal Marty Noble at MLB.com (hat tip to isuzudude):
A person familiar with the club’s plans, finances and, in general, fiscal responsibility, said flatly the Mets would not pursue the most attractive pitcher in the 2008 class of free agents.
Further:
The Mets anticipate the Yankees paying Sabathia significantly more than the $137.5 million for six years they are contracted to pay Santana. The Mets hardly are questioning the Yankees’ “spend money to make money” strategy. The Mets used it themselves in February. Indeed, they paid with talent as well, dealing Carlos Gomez and three others for Santana.
“I’m not sure any club can make that kind of move two years in a row,” the Mets source said.
Huh. So there you have it. If we are to believe the bean counter “familiar with the club’s plans” then C.C. is a no-go. I really love that last quote. Tell me, exactly why a club can’t make “that kind of move two years in a row” ? The Yankees, for one, do it all the time. In fact, didn’t they just give A-Rod a 10-year, $275M deal last year? Oh, but the Mets aren’t as wealthy as their crosstown rivals … the poor, destitute kids in Flushing have a much tighter budget.
But what about this comp: the Toronto Blue Jays?
2005: Blue Jays sign free-agent B.J. Ryan to the largest contract ever for a reliever – 5 years / $47M
2005: Blue Jays sign free-agent A.J. Burnett to 5 years/$55M
2006: Blue Jays extend Vernon Wells to 7 years / $126M
How about the San Francisco Giants?
2006: Giants sign Barry Zito to 7 years / $126M
2007: Giants sign Aaron Rowand to 5 years / $60M
Or the Houston Astros?
2006: Astros extend Roy Oswalt to 6 years / $89M
2006: Astros sign Carlos Lee to 6 years / $100M
Or the Chicago Cubs?
2006: Cubs sign Aramis Ramirez to 5 years / $75M
2006: Cubs sign Alfonso Soriano to 8 years / $136M
2007: Cubs extend Carlos Zambrano to 5 years / $91.5M
I realize the numbers above aren’t exactly what the Mets would have to spend in consecutive off-seasons, but take a look at those comps, the smaller markets of those teams, and maybe you can get what I’m trying to convey here. The quote that the Mets can’t dole out two huge contracts in consecutive years is nonsense, particularly after selling a record-breaking 4 million tickets an moving into profit-machine to be known as Citi Field. Further, they have $25M coming off the books by three players exiting (Pedro Martinez, El Duque, Moises Alou), and will shed another $25M next year after Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, and Scott Schoeneweis leave. Quick math:$50M windfall, or about one-third of a potential total contract offer to Sabathia. Unless the Mets plan to go after Carl Crawford or Matt Holliday next offseason — and according to the plan, they won’t, as Fernando Martinez and Ryan Church will be flanking Carlos Beltran in 2010 — then now is as good a time as any to reinvest the recent profits back into the “brand”.
I’m not going to argue with the mole who says the Mets “won’t” go after C.C. Sabathia. But don’t tell me they “can’t” — that’s an insult to my intelligence.
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