Mets Today

There is a lot of nonsense being “reported” in the last 24-48 hours before the trading deadline. All the “buzz” you hear about this player generally comes from “team officials” or “a source close to the team”, etc. Part of what those “moles” are doing is purposely leaking information for any of several reasons. Let’s go through a few of the smoke screens set up by the moles and how they should be interpreted.

The “Insane Package Request”

Selling team “leaks out” that they want (more…)

The rumors of Raul Ibanez coming to Queens continue to abound.

Let’s get one thing crystal clear:

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For those who are more literary than visionary, Raul Ibanez is Shawn Green. In other words, a guy who once was a strong all-around player with a slugging lefthanded bat, who has declined drastically in all phases of the game in the past few years due to age. Bat speed - gone. Power - gone. Fielding ability - gone. Baserunning - gone. Yet the Mariners want two prospects for Ibanez, and are supposedly holding out for Jonathan Niese. My answer to the Ms is “NFW”.

Don’t get me wrong — I was a HUGE Shawn Green fan, and enjoyed every moment he played in the orange and blue. But his skills were diminished, and he was nowhere near the player he was in his glory days — that’s why the Mets were able to snatch him away from Arizona for suspect Evan MacLane.

Similarly, if the Mariners ask for something reasonable in return for Raul — say, Adam Bostick or Tobi Stoner — then OK, do the dea. If not, hang up the phone and call Shawn Green instead. He’s the same player, and will come much more cheaply.

The Mets need an outfielder, a reliever, and possibly a starting pitcher, in that order. All agreed? They need to obtain these pieces without flushing the farm system. I have some ideas.

Baltimore Orioles: Chad Bradford and one of: Jay Payton, Aubrey Huff, or Kevin Millar.
ChadBrad is exactly what the Mets need right now, and won’t command a top prospect to pry away. Similarly Payton and Millar are over 35 but are perfect for filling in at one of the outfield corners. Huff has also lost value in recent years, but would be a nice platoon partner for Fernando Tatis and/or keep right field warm for Ryan Church. A deal to bring in all three could certainly be done without giving up any of the Mets’ top young talents. Heck, I’d invite the O’s to throw Ramon Hernandez into the deal if they seek salary relief.

Mariners: Jose Vidro and either Jarrod Washburn or Carlos Silva

Vidro has zero value, and could be released. The Ms are so ticked at the Yankees over Washburn, they might consider taking a lesser package from the Mets to send him to New York. If not, maybe they’d like the idea of having Silva and his fat contract off their hands. Yeah, he’s stunk this year but maybe a move to the NL could help him. The Mets only need him as a fifth starter, not an ace. Considering this deal would be about a salary dump, it shouldn’t cost much in prospects. And please, Seattle, you can KEEP Raul Ibanez. If the Mets really want a former lefty-hitting slugger-turned singles hitter who can’t play the field, they’ll ask Shawn Green to come out of retirement.

Indians: Rafael Betancourt, David Dellucci, John Halama

Betancourt is having a terrible season and at age 33 is not getting any younger. But, he has good stuff. A move to the NL and to a winning team could be exactly what he needs to recapture the magic that made him a lights-out setup man — think: Guillermo Mota 2006. Dellucci could be a nice LH bat while we wait for Church and/or a platoon partner for Tatis. Halama has been out of MLB for a while but is 7-3 with a 4.12 ERA in AAA, averaging close to 7 innings per start. He’d be a nice backup plan if something is up with John Maine; or he could be a LOOGY / long man in the pen. The Indians also have Anthony Reyes and Brendan Donnelly tucked away on the Buffalo Bisons roster. Any of these men could be easily pried away for a song, I’m sure.

Rangers: Eddie Guardado and Nelson Cruz

I’m not sure why the Rangers are so hell-bent on holding on to “Everyday Eddie” when he’s 37 years old and they’re 11.5 games out of first. I read it as a feeble attempt to raise Guardado’s value. Nelson Cruz is tearing it up at a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league, but even still should be at least as good as Marcus Thames. The Rangers might be interested in a young first baseman — how about a package centered around Mike Carp?

There are a number of other players out there who could a) come cheaply and b) help the Mets. These trade partners above, though, seem to have players who can address several of the Mets’ needs at once. We’ll see what transpires in the coming days.

It didn’t take long for the Manny talk to start …

Listen to me talk LIVE about the Manny Ramirez situation — and other last-minute trade talk — with Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball Magazine, by logging on to Gotham Nation from 2:00 pm to 2:30 pm today.

In addition, you can call in with YOUR questions and opinion by calling (646) 595-4003.

This morning on XM’s MLB Home Plate, Phillies GM Pat Gillick admitted that he is still heavily involved in discussions to further improve his team. In other words, the Joe Blanton acquisition was the beginning, rather than the end, of his dealing.

Somewhat surprising, since the Phils don’t have much to offer from their farm system, but Gillick let the cat out of the bag, mentioning that Philadelphia has two of the brightest backstop prospects in all of baseball — Lou Marson and Jason Jaramillo. The guy he didn’t mention was a third catcher named Travis D’Arnaud, a 2007 first-rounder who is currently buried in Rookie ball and hitting .330. And while the Phillies may not have any exciting blue chippers to offer, how many other teams have young, talented catchers to deal?

Gillick specifically identified pitching and an outfielder as targets. Could he possibly pull off a deal to pry away Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes from Colorado? Jason Bay and Damaso Marte from Pittsburgh? If a main chip is a catcher, I’d think the Orioles are out of the running — they’re looking to move Ramon Hernandez to make room for phenom Matt Wieters.

Meantime, Omar Minaya as usual kept his cards close to his vest in an interview yesterday on 1050 ESPN Radio, giving the old “we’re always looking to improve our team” line, but also saying that he had complete confidence in Fernando Tatis keeping up his hot hitting.

As mentioned earlier this week, I think the outcome of this series could affect what the Mets do before the trading deadline. If the Mets win one or two, they’ll continue to go after someone like Casey Blake or a Billy Hall type. But if they get swept, a panic move could be made that brings in a Jason Bay, Huston Street, or Matt Holliday - level player. Such a high-impact trade would become more realistic if the Phillies sweep AND make another major deal.

Time will tell.

The trading deadline (and my wife’s birthday) is 10 days away. The Mets are currently in a tie for first place with the Phillies, and go into Philly return to Shea for a three-game series on Tuesday. Omar Minaya has been remarkably quiet.

I smell a trade coming … a big one.

While it’s true the Mets have no chips to trade, I have a funny feeling that Omar will pull off something, and get something big in return. And not Raul Ibanez big.

Carlos Lee big.

Huh?

Before you poo-poo Gotham Baseball’s latest rumor, consider this: Lee is 32 years old and signed through 2012, for a total of $74M after this season. Houston owner Drayton McLane has to be re-thinking that contract, and with the Astros 12 games behind and nowhere near the talent level of the Brewers and Cubs, he might be thinking of trading away Lee while his stock is high.

No doubt the cost would include the Mets’ top prospects — i.e., Jon Niese, Mike Carp, F-Mart — but there’s an outside possibility they can pull off something that doesn’t include crown jewel Fernando Martinez. For example, the Mets might instead put Aaron Heilman and a few of their very young hurlers (Nathan Vineyard, Bobby Parnell, Brant Rustich) into a package. Why would the Astros bite? Think about it — there are only two other teams in MLB who would take on that kind of contract for a player on the wrong side of 30 — the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Bosox won’t do it because they can pick up their two options on Manny Ramirez. The Yankees could be a suitor in the offseason, but right now seem uninterested in dealing away any more of their youth.

Gotham also suggests Willie Bloomquist — a guy I never considered but does seem to be a decent fit. Still, I think we’ll see something bigger, and keep looking at the Baltimore Orioles and all their bad contracts. Furthermore, the latest news that Billy Wagner needs an MRI on his shoulder means the Mets are suddenly in the market for a closer. Could Huston Street be in their sights? Or at the least, Rafael Betancourt?

Most likely, what the Mets do before the 31st will depend directly on what happens this week. If the Mets have a strong series in Philly, and take at least two, they might just stand pat — or make a minor deal. If they lose at least two, though, you can bet your bottom dollar that a panic deal will be made. Minaya’s job is on the line this season, and he MUST get the Mets to the postseason. My best guess is Aaron Heilman is on the way out, as well as either Scott Schoeneweis or Pedro Feliciano. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ryan Church was put into a deal for the right player (i.e., Street … with Matt Murton, or Carlos Lee). Think I’m nuts? You would have thought the same thing on this date in 2006 if I said the Mets would trade Xavier Nady for a 41-year-old reliever and a starting pitcher sent to AAA after posting a 2-10 record. Crazy things happen this time of year.

So the Phillies have accomplished the impossible, addressing their most glaring need by picking up Joe Blanton from the Athletics for a package of prospects / suspects.

The Phillies gave up no one from their 25-man roster, with all three players among their “top 20 prospects” according to Baseball America. However, that’s not saying much — the Phillies’ farm system might be worse than the Mets’. They gave up Adrian Cardenas (BA #2), a 20-year-old offensively minded second baseman who projects as a “middle of the order” hitter but hasn’t shown that kind of power yet; Josh Outman (BA #4), a 23-year-old LHP who has a GREAT name for a pitcher but is too old to be a middle reliever in AA; and Matt Spencer, a 22-year-old outfielder from Arizona State who is hitting .250 in A ball and might benefit by moving to the mound (he’s a lefty who threw a 94-MPH fastball at ASU).

It was no accident that the Phillies made this move prior to their series with the Mets. His last start came on July 9th, so I imagine the Phils could slot him into the rotation wherever they wish.

As we all know, the Mets have a glaring need of their own — a corner outfielder with a legitimate big-league bat. I’m still not convinced that a.) Ryan Church will return from his neurological issues and be the guy he was from April-June; and b.) Fernando Tatis and Endy Chavez can continue to hit the way they’ve been hitting. BOTH (a) and (b) have to happen if the Mets are to get into the postseason, and we’re waiting on (a). Don’t be blinded by the Mets’ 9-game winning streak — the pitching won’t be THAT good for the rest of the season and eventually, not having that extra big bat (Moises Alou) will hinder the team’s chances.

So with the Phillies making their move, it’s time for Omar Minaya to make his move. And that move is NOT promoting Fernando Martinez. If F-Mart were hitting .350 and bashing balls over the fence, then yes, it’s a good move. But Martinez is not dominating, and not hitting for power, and IS doing a lot of swinging and missing. At AA. Guys who strike out a lot in AA will strike out even more in AAA, and more still in MLB. So that .295 average F-Mart is carrying becomes .260 or worse, with little power. May as well hope Angel Pagan can return (not looking good) or give Trot Nixon a shot. At least Nixon will draw walks, run the bases intelligently, and pop one every once in a while.

The Mets will not get Matt Holliday — nor should they. But they might be able to steal Raul Ibanez, Junior Griffey, Casey Blake, Jay Payton, Kevin Millar, or someone similar. I still smell a trade with Baltimore coming, with the Mets bringing in big salaries (Payton, Ramon Hernandez, Chad Bradford) in return for suspect youngsters. The Orioles, going nowhere and strapped with bad contracts, are too perfect a trading partner not to be able to work out some kind of deal.

But what will Omar’s move be? No one knows for sure, but I guarantee we’ll see something before Monday. Minaya will want the Mets armed a ready for the Phillies series.

So the news before the All-Star Break was that Moises Alou was finished for the year, having torn his hamstring in a rehab game the night before.

There had been suggestions that Alou did not need to rush back, that the Mets would be fine with Alou returning some time after the All-Star break, but apparently Alou was allowed to begin his comeback prematurely. There goes $7.5M, down the drain!

Alou appeared in a total of 15 games … a few short of the 90 or 100 many of us had hoped for. Hmm … that comes to half a million dollars per game. Nice job, Moises — that’s a better rate than Alex Rodriguez!

Enough of the jokes. Personally, I’m crushed about this news. Yes, I know it was silly to believe Moises could have given the Mets anything this year, but when the guy is on the field, he’s one of the five or six players in MLB I absolutely love to watch. The way he carries himself, plays the game all-out, with outstanding instincts and intelligence, plus his innate ability to drive in runs, makes him a pleasure to watch. I suppose all those verbs should have been presented in the past tense.

Anyway, now what will the Mets do without him? Until now, Omar Minaya had been under the assumption that the parade of leftfielders were stopgaps, keeping the position warm until Moises healed (we knew better). Now, there is no question — the Mets need a strong-hitting outfielder. The issue is exacerbated by the questionable condition of Ryan Church. The Mets’ 2008 offense — and their ultimate success — was planned around the idea that Alou would play 100-120 games (however irresponsible that was, it WAS the plan). Alou’s absence was somewhat alleviated by Church’s rise to stardom. But now, without either hitter, the Mets need to find someone.

Yes, the Mets have been winning without Alou AND Church lately. That doesn’t mean they can keep it going over the long haul. I would really like to believe that Fernando Tatis is having a renaissance season — much like Jose Valentin’s 2006, as one MetsToday reader recently suggested — but the Mets can’t count on him staying this hot. Even if they could, that only accounts for one corner outfield spot — one that would be handled by a very shaky and inexperienced defender.

Let’s take a look at the Mets options for left and right fields, both in-house and outside the organization.

A combination of Fernando Tatis, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, and Nick Evans / Chris Aguila

The righthanded hitters — Tatis and Evans — both started shagging fly balls a few months ago, so the outfield defense will take a hit when the opposing team puts a lefty on the mound. Anderson might be worse defender than both of them, and is still slumping as he struggles to stay near the Mendoza Line. Chavez brings a great glove to the table and has been a hot hitter of late — however, he also tends to be a streaky hitter, and is bound to hit a cold streak with regular duty. The jury is still out on Aguila. It’s not an impossibility to believe this ramshackle group can somehow pull off near-average production compared to other NL corner outfielders, though my guess is the power numbers will be lower than the mean for both positions. Still, the Mets could get by IF Brian Schneider hits better than expected, Damion Easley remains hot, and Carlos Delgado continues on the road back to respectability. However, those are all big ifs.

Trot Nixon

The forgotten Nixon is waiting around on the DL, and could be activated as early as Sunday. He could find time in the above menagerie while the Mets wait for Church to return, though eventually the team would have to decide between him and Marlon Anderson. Trot will never hit for the power he did a few years ago, but is still a solid defender and a good on-base guy who plays inspirational, all-out ball. If he gets another shot on the 25-man roster, he’ll have to hit to stick. Who knows, maybe he can.

Fernando Martinez

Omar Minaya did not hesitate to promote Carlos Gomez last season, despite his rawness. Gomez was clearly overmatched at the plate, but held his own in the field, made the most of his best weapon (speed), and provided a jolt of energy and spunk to an otherwise languishing lineup. Can F-Mart be a similar inspiration? Somehow I doubt it. Where Gomez already had at least three of the five MLB-ready tools (arm, fielding, and speed), Martinez doesn’t have any. One day, F-Mart will be a power hitter in the mold of Juan Gonzalez (we’re told). Otherwise, his fielding and arm are projected to be average, his running speed average to above-average, and his ability to hit for average will be, well, average. His most impactful tool will be his power, and unfortunately it hasn’t yet arrived (yes, he can hit balls out in BP, but he has only 4 HRs in 221 ABs — a rate similar to that of Luis Castillo). He’s probably running faster now than he ever will, but he’s no speed demon — it’s not like he can make up for his inability to make contact by dragging bunts, as Gomez did last year. At age 19, he’s an exciting bundle of talent, but nowhere near ready to contribute in the bigs yet. All that said, he’ll probably be promoted — but don’t rush to get him onto your fantasy team.

Dan Murphy

The 23-year-old third baseman for the B-Mets skipped all the way from 14 at-bats at short-season NY-Penn League in 2007 to AA this year and hasn’t missed a beat. He’s batting .311 with a .854 OPS though 75 games. However, his 17 errors at the hot corner and the presence of David Wright suggest he’ll need to move to another spot on the field before he moves up to the bigs (for the Mets, at least). How about moving him now and seeing what happens? I wouldn’t be surprised if B-Mets manager Mako Oliveras started inserting “LF” next to his name in the lineup. He’s a longshot, at best.

Valentino Pascucci

Some fans (including yours truly) were clamoring for Pascucci while he was in the midst of a torrid hot streak earlier this year. Since then, he has cooled considerably and scouts report he is a major liability in the field. If he’s not blasting homeruns, he’s not much help; his window of hotness may have passed.

John Rodriguez

A homecoming for the New York-born Rodriguez would make for a nice story. Unfortunately, I don’t know that he’d be much help. He’s essentially Endy Chavez, minus the speed. Good fielder, high average hitter off the bench, but no power, strikes out too often for a singles hitter, and only an average runner.

Nelson Cruz

MetsBlog reported that many teams around MLB were “interested” in Cruz, who is tearing up the PCL with a .343 average and 26 homers and 89 RBI in only 289 at-bats (take that, Josh Hamilton!). Anyone whose been reading MetsToday knows I’ve been screaming for this guy since January (and reiterated several times in March) — but hey, what do I know? Cruz can hit for power and play the field capably; his one issue is swinging and missing. But heck, that was Jack Cust’s problem, too, but he still did OK. If the Mets can pry him away for a few non-prospects, it’s worth the gamble.

Richie Sexson

Don’t laugh! Sexson came up as an outfielder / first baseman before settling in the infield. While true his Major League experience in the outfield is only 109 games, that’s still about 90 more than Tatis. And now that he’s been released by the Mariners, he can be obtained for nothing. Why not roll the dice? No risk, all reward. Besides, the Mets haven’t had a slugging, whiffing, sourpuss like this since Dave Kingman. It might be nice to have an ornery malcontent hanging around the clubhouse — the two Carloses would suddenly look like media mavens.

Billy Hall

Hall became a part-time player in May, and has been none too happy about it. He strikes out a ton, and can’t hit righties, but he’s still better than most of the Mets’ in-house options. He’d come much more cheaply than, say, Xavier Nady, and he could be emotionally inspired to prove the Brewers wrong. As an added bonus, he can also play 3B, SS, and 2B. If the cost is not too high, he’d be worth acquiring. Considering he’s already requested a trade, and he’s owed over $15M through 2010, he could be obtained for less than his true value.

Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Matt Holliday, Adam Dunn

Not happening. If any of these players come the Mets’ way, please shoot me, because it means they sent away the last dregs of an already compromised farm system.

Ken Griffey

Could the Mets steal him for a few mid-level prospects? Probably not. The only decent chips they have are the aforementioned Murphy, Evans, Mike Carp, and Jon Niese. The Reds might be interested in Niese, but likely none of the others. I wouldn’t send away any man on the current 25-man roster for Junior (i.e., Aaron Heilman) — we need every one of them.

Frank Catalanotto, Kenny Lofton

Why? I’d rather stand pat with the current crew. We don’t need any more overaged singles hitters.

Raul Ibanez

If he can be had for less than I think, by all means a solid solution. At age 36, he fits right into Minaya’s ideal age range, and the New York City native coming home will be a more exciting story than the aforementioned Rodriguez. He still collects extra-base hits, fields his position admirably, and can drive in runs. Whether he can be obtained for a fair package, however, is another story.

Bottom Line

Omar Minaya WILL make a deal. His hand is forced, and his job is on the line. Ibanez seems like the most “Minayalike” acquisition, even though it’s been reported that the Mets are no longer interested in the lefthanded-hitting outfielder. I’d guess Hall is the second option being discussed — Hall fits the “salary dump” descriptive that the Mets are using as leverage in talks, and he hits from the righthand side. Third scenario would have to be something with Baltimore, though I’m not sure what the Mets have that the Orioles want. In conclusion, the player acquired is most likely to be no one mentioned in this post.

Share your guesses and thoughts in the comments.

Continuing to avoid the reality of yesterday afternoon, and following up to The Deal That Wasn’t, I was looking through some of the players the Mets were reportedly “after” during this past Hot Stove Season. Among some of the better deals not made:

Jorge Posada
Remember when the Yankees shook in their boots thinking the Mets would steal Posada away? Initially, the Yanks “dragged their feet” in their negotiations with the elder backstop, and as a negotiation ploy, Posada said the Mets were high on his list. There were legitimate sources suggesting that the Mets would offer Posada a four- or five-year deal to pry him out of the Bronx. Now that Posada has injured his shoulder, and some wonder if he’ll ever catch again, I’m glad the whole thing was a ruse.

Akinori Otsuka
There was a lot of buzz that Otsuka was bound for Flushing. Instead, he had season-ending elbow surgery.

Erick Bedard
Supposedly, the Orioles wanted a bigger package for Bedard than the Twins wanted for Johan Santana. Bedard is a fine pitcher, but has made only three starts this year due to a hip injury. Granted, it’s still early in the season, but if the Mets gave up all those players only to have Bedard spend the first month of the season on the DL, would we be freaking out right now? More importantly, who would you rather have — Bedard or Santana?

Luis Vizcaino
Early in the offseason, the Mets were desperate for bullpen help, and the former Yankee setup man was one of their targets. However, he priced himself out of the negotiations, demanding a three-year deal. He eventually received two years and $7.5M from the Rockies. He’s made two appearances, has a 27.00 ERA, and is on the DL with a shoulder strain.

Eric Gagne
The Gagne rumors came more during the July 31 deadline last season than during the offseason, but in any case there was a lot of buzz about him possibly coming to the Mets. The cost would have been several top prospects, and Omar Minaya refused to part with them. Thank goodness.

Noah Lowry
There was a lot of buzz surrounding the young pitchers of the Giants over the winter, with most teams asking for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and the Giants countering with Noah Lowry. There was at least one rumor that the Mets were considering Lowry, supposedly in return for Lastings Milledge (though I was hoping they’d go for Jonathan Sanchez). This spring, Lowry required surgery to repair his left forearm, and has been shut down for “the next three or four weeks”. Today, I’d rather have a starting catcher and starting rightfielder than a pitcher on the DL.

David Eckstein
The Wilpons personally escorted Eckstein around the Tri-state area and treated him to lunch, then pulled away a three-year contract offer when they found out he wasn’t Jewish. Actually, that’s not true — someone in the hierarchy thought it a better plan to give four years to Luis Castillo and his bad knees. This is another case of too early to tell, but Eckstein is off to a slow start — .248 average — and I’m not convinced he would have been any better than Castillo in the two-hole. Despite his “grit”, Eck doesn’t get on base very often and is not too speedy on the bases, despite being a leadoff hitter most of his career.

Yorvit Torrealba
Might be too early to tell on this one, but Yorvit’s .240 average thus far suggests he’s on the way to continuing his mediocre career. Certainly not worth the three-year, $14M commitment. However, his thumb is 100% healthy.

Chad Cordero
It seemed like every week there wasn’t a Lastings Milledge - to - Oakland rumor, there was one sending the outfielder (and two pitching prospects) to DC for Cordero. Omar Minaya has always been a huge fan of the reliever — he drafted him, after all — but imagine if any of those rumored deals became reality? The last one I remember was Milledge or Carlos Gomez plus Philip Humber plus Kevin Mulvey — the bulk of the package that eventually went to Minnesota for Johan. Today, Cordero is unable to throw 80 MPH, and for all we know, his career as a closer is over.

For those who missed the Anna Benson act, there’s a very good chance you’ll get to see her and her hubby Kris many, many times in 2008 — word on the street is that Kris Benson is about to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Hat tip to loyal MetsToday reader / commenter “sincekindergarten” for the link.

No word on the terms yet, but if Anna accepted a minor league deal, it’s a good, low-risk move by the Phillies.

Assuming Anna moves to Philly, her first order of business should be a meeting with Kim Myers — the wife of Brett — who could use a lesson or two on how to keep her man in place.