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April 5, 2010 Predictions Joe Janish

Mets 2010 Preview: Best Case / Worst Case

How the 2010 season turns out is anyone’s guess; the optimists believe health brings happiness and the pessismists insist poor pitching will doom their chances. Let’s take a look at the best/worst case scenarios.

Best Case

Both Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran return early and in 100% health to propel the offense, which also welcomes Jason Bay and a return to power by David Wright. Additionally, Jeff Francoeur proves Atlanta wrong and Luis Castillo squeaks out one more .300 avg/.400 OBP year to help the Mets score 800+ runs. Johan Santana competes for the Cy Young, Oliver Perez and John Maine return to their 2007 form, Mike Pelfrey fulfills his potential, and someone steps up to set up as the Mets cruise to a 93-win year and the NL East flag.

Worst Case

Chronic thyroid issues keep Reyes out of the lineup and Beltran never returns to full strength. Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine continue to take steps backward and an overworked bullpen conks out by mid-July. First base and catcher provide below-average production that can’t be compensated for because Citi Field turns Bay and Wright into singles hitters and Francoeur’s OBP is less than his weight. Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya are fired by July, the team goes into rebuilding mode, the Nationals have a surprisingly strong year, and the Mets finish in last place with a 70-92 record.

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. isuzudude April 5, 2010 at 8:52 am
    Or, you can retitle “Best Case” to “Fantasy,” and “Worst Case” to “Expectation.”
  2. Mike April 5, 2010 at 10:20 am
    Can’t argue Joe. But as fed up as I am about the Mejia travesty, once that game starts I’m going back into hopelessly optimistic mode. My preseason prediction is mediocrity (which lets face it is optimistic), but once the season starts I am rooting against the Braves and Phillies and completely for the Mets. I will believe it is all possible because I am a “Ya Gotta Believe” Mets fan through and through.

    But once the writing is officially on the wall there is no way that continues.

  3. Mic April 5, 2010 at 1:17 pm
    -meija is the least of oyur talking points. in fact the opening day line up does not concern me (except in a couple of areas).

    -what does bother me is the rotation and lack of movement to fix it. In fact the Mets fever story (?) which would have me belief Omar could offer a contract to pedro made me optimistic. given that Pedro is rested, 3 yrs removed from surgery and coming off a good season in which he was in the WS, I’d say go for it.

  4. Mic April 5, 2010 at 1:19 pm
    that Pedro link is here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/373751-omar-minaya-impressed-by-pedro-martinezs-first-pitch