Review of 2010 Predictions

Prior to Opening Day, I sat down at McFaddens in front of a camera with a fruity beer, Kerel Cooper of OnTheBlack and Dave Doyle of Mets Report. We discussed a number of topics, including predictions for the 2010 season. You may find it fun to watch them again, now that it is after the fact:

1. Grading the Offseason
I gave the Mets a C-minus for not acquiring more pitching. Dave liked the Jason Bay signing.

2. Catchers, Castillo, and Murphy
I was disappointed with the Mets’ decision to stockpile backup catchers. Dave suggested that Josh Thole would emerge as the starting catcher by September.

3. Jose Reyes & David Wright
I predicted that David Wright would return to his 25-30 HR / 100-RBI / .310 AVG. batting line. Both Dave and I did not like Jose Reyes as a #3 hitter and felt the experiment wouldn’t last.

4. Outfield
I was skeptical that Beltran had routine knee surgery and guessed that we would not see Beltran at all during the season — but felt the Mets would be OK with Angel Pagan in CF. I had no expectations for Jeff Francoeur but admitted I would enjoy watching him play for the entertainment factor. Dave believed that Francoeur would return to poor performance he displayed at the end of his Braves career rather than repeat the strong numbers he put up as a Met at the tail end of 2009. I thought Jason Bay’s power wouldn’t be significantly affected by Citi Field (oops!). Both Dave and I agreed Bay would be be fun to watch and would be much better defensively than people were giving him credit for.

5. Pitching
Dave and I were skeptical about John Maine and Oliver Perez. I felt the Mets’ success or failure was completely dependent on the performance of Maine, Perez, and Mike Pelfrey. I expected Pelfrey to step up, have a breakout season, and establish himself as a #2 starter. Dave wanted to see Jonathon Niese take the #5 spot in the rotation. Kerel was concerned that K-Rod might not return to form due to physical issues. I was similarly concerned mainly because I didn’t think Jerry Manuel would manage him properly and overuse him. I liked Fernando Nieve as a possible setup man — and you know what? he might’ve held on to that role had Manuel not put him on pace to appear in 104 ballgames (he appeared in 21 of the first 31 games of the year).

6. Prospects
Dave was confident we’d see Josh Thole behind the plate and Ike Davis at 1B at some point in the year. I didn’t think we’d see any position players making an impact IF the Mets were fighting for a playoff spot. I did, however, believe that auditions would begin if the Mets season was “in the toilet” by June.

7. 2010 Predictions
The over/under for wins was 81; I predicted the Mets would be under 81 wins — unless John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey all had the outstanding seasons that people were hoping for back then.

In addition to the above videos, I also wrote a “Best-Case / Worst-Case” article before the season started. I think we can all agree that the “best case” didn’t happen.

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
  1. Henry October 19, 2010 at 9:45 am
    Outstanding post.

    I think you mis-typed one thing though ….
    ” …. 3. Jose Reyes & David Wright
    I predicted that David Wright would return to his 25-30 HR / 100-RBI / .310 AVG. batting line. Both Dave and I did not like Jose Reyes as a leadoff batter and felt the experiment wouldn’t last. ”

    Don’t you mean that yo di not like Jose Reyes as a #3 hitter …. ?

    I had many of the same feelings going into the season …. I thought they Mets would win 73 games and Mauel would be fired by the time the Mets played thre Yankees in the Bronx in June ….

    • Joe Janish October 19, 2010 at 3:09 pm
      Wow that was a dumb mistake on my part — thanks Henry, it’s been corrected!

      You were pretty close with that prediction … Manuel very nearly was fired in June, but the Wilpons changed their mind at the last minute.

  2. Dave Doyle October 19, 2010 at 7:32 pm
    What was I thinking when I said I liked the Jason Bay signing? I can’t even blame it on too much beer. I wish I had a good excuse for that one…
    • Mike October 22, 2010 at 3:13 pm
      Um, it was a good signing. You can’t predict the future. You can though expect a big bounce back year from him in 2011. I’m positive about Bay going forward. If he’s bad this year then yes it will be a horrible signing, but otherwise you have to expect a bounce back.
  3. Mike October 22, 2010 at 3:12 pm
    Am I being naive by being optimistic right now about the team? I think with a strong leader at GM, 2011 can be considered a wash and an extended tryout for much of the system as a whole, with real changes and results showing in 2012. Alderson seems to be the forward thinking type the team needs, with all the experience necessary to succeed. It may not be all roses, but I feel pretty good about things right now. Plus it’s not unreasonable to think that with better leadership this team will win more games. Look at the Giants who are less than ordinary on offense and defense, but of course with all time great pitching. They are not pitching well because of great defense either, which typically go together. It’s clear that teams can win by simply playing clean winning baseball, and most would admit that the Mets have lacked that quality since 2006.

    No way to know if that’s how things will be, but Alderson having resources he didn’t have in Oakland makes me think maybe he will be able to put it together quickly with the Mets.