Man Up And Get Predicting
Way back when the Mets were 16-10 on May 6th, I wrote an article about the legendary Izzy and asked Mets Today readers (and pundits) to predict the amount of games the Mets would win. The bold ones amongst you did just that. And, so far, you’re doing pretty darn well.
You can chart your progress on the Mets-O-Meter as the season rolls on after the All Star Break.
If you haven’t already told me how many wins you thought the Mets would get at the start of the season… comment and I’ll add you to the chart. I’ve got my £10 riding on the Mets winning 86-88 games. And you’ve got a piece of lovely Mets merchandise to win if you get the correct number.
No hindsight, though… it’s strictly forbidden. Lemme explain why.
Hindsight Is The Coward’s Way Out
The nature of being a Mets fan is to be negative. We’ve got a much better chance of being right that way. In 54 seasons the Mets have had 22 winning seasons. And a number of those were 82 or 83 wins. Let’s face it, last year’s 79 wins hardly felt spectacular for all the Pythagorean wonder of it.
But the hope of another year hits just before Spring Training. We think about the possibilities of a healthy David Wright, that pitching staff with Zack Wheeler, the promise of Michael Cuddyer being a super-utility player, and Juan Lagares providing Gold Glove defense with his killer arm.
That torn feeling before Spring Training is exactly the right time to make your prediction. In my case, I get better odds from my bookie (9-1 for a three game spread). But it also shows the ability to stick your neck out and factor in every dumb and ridiculous fork on the 162 game road ahead.
You get it right then and you are a genius. You could be GM. You SHOULD be the owner (please).
Either that, or you’re just lucky. But then sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
The Predictions So Far
The Mets are on course for just over 85.5 wins. My £90 + £10 stake (- betting tax) seems assured.
Colin, Walt and R. will also be getting whatever farcical piece of Mets merchandise they want (as long as it costs $10 or less). I recommend the Mets Steering Wheel cover.
But are we right?
The Case For 86 Wins
The Mets’ starting pitching – aside from Dillon Gee – has been lights out. Harvey has been better than I expected. Jon Niese improved as his beard grew into full magnificence. Bartolo Colon has puttered along with a cheeky wink and a song in his heart. Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz have shown the future is bright as long as their arms or lats don’t fall off. And Jacob deGrom is a joy to watch. He even made his one inning in the always-very-tedious All Star Game a lot of fun.
But, more importantly, three-fifths of the NL East is very bad. The Braves are starting to find their level (low), the Marlins have already found theirs (low), and the Phillies are so bad it’s almost sad.
The Mets still have a bunch of games against these guys (26 out of the remaining 73 games) and you hope they’ll go at least 17-9. Then add on 7 games against Colorado. None of those teams are going to get any better… if anything they’ll get worse as they trade for the future. So that’s almost half of the Mets games against lousy AAA standard teams. Wally’s Las Vegas would beat ‘em.
The Case For 80 Wins
The Mets defense has improved but it’s still uninspiring, and a few guys in the bullpen give me chills every time they enter. With: “Here comes Alex Torres” spectators rush for the exits.
The offense is equally frustrating. Poor David Wright (and I refuse to grumble about him) seems out for the season and a terrible throw up the line continues to rob the Mets of Travis d’Arnaud. Wilmer is hitting clean-up, Grandy can’t hit lefties, Duda still has slumps, Cuddy is cruddy. And Murph will continue to admire his singles whilst running with all the intelligence of a startled sheep.
Oh, and who’s getting injured next? Niese and Parnell are already in danger of ingrowing beards.
And why is the schedule for the rest of July just plain evil? It feels like the Mets could lose their season in the next two weeks. In total the Mets also have 12 games left against the Nationals. Yuk…
My Hindsight Prediction
80-82 wins. Joe wins again. DanB’s initial Spring Training prediction could also take it.
My Actual Prediction
86-88 wins. Never turn back. Never use hindsight. Trust yourself.
The Metsies will beat the Cubbies by a couple of games to squeak into the last wild card spot, where they face (shudder) the almighty Pirates.
But, you know what, I’d pay to see Gerrit Cole vs. Jacob deGrom and £90 goes a little way towards the plane fare.
What do you think?
The comments box below is there for just that reason.
And feel free to request whatever Mets-chandise you fancy. Mets Cookie Cutters, anyone? Taste your victory!