Third Rotation
The Mets’ hopes for 2017 rest in large part on their starting pitching staff. Is this quintet a major strength which can carry the team? Or do various health and effectiveness concerns place them somewhere short of that status? Let’s take a look at the third rotation through the Mets’ (hopefully) fab five and note what we’ve seen.
IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | P | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Syndergaard | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 87 | |
deGrom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 97 | |
Harvey | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 92 | |
Wheeler | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 99 | |
Gsellman | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 99 |
What I saw
Noah Syndergaard
Much like his in first two starts, Syndergaard’s velocity and fastball command were good but not at their best. He didn’t look dominant, but the Marlins didn’t hit him hard either. He threw more two-seamers than usual, with great movement but poor location (the pitch to the glove side consistently ran back over the middle). Three great signs: a 100 mph fastball up and in to put away Christian Yelich; a slow motion clip of his motion in which his arm is not nearly as late as it used to be; and the fact that the Marlins only attempted one stolen base. Hopefully the torn fingernails that forced Noah from the game were a one-time concern.
Jacob deGrom
I didn’t see the familiar deGrom motion. He was staying taller through his delivery, possibly getting less extension, and producing less obvious run on his fastball. After a few yanked pitches to the glove side, a few bad breaking balls, and an atypical reliance on two-seamers, I was pessimistic about Jacob’s outing. Then he got angry and established an absolutely dominant groove, striking out 13, many of those on fastballs.
It looked like deGrom was headed for his first win until Collins left in a gassed Fernando Salas to face Yelich as the tying run and Yelich hit one into the upper deck.
Matt Harvey
Harvey had great life on his fastball, and mostly commanded it well at 94-95 mph. His slider had good tilt and depth. He mixed in a few good curves, but not many, and his change-up wasn’t a major factor (he got some up early and may have decided to stay away from it). Matt arguably faced more adversity in this start than his previous ones, and it was nice to see him come through this test without the sort of collapse that became routine in 2016. His command did look a bit worse with men on, but it wasn’t anything catastrophic.
Zack Wheeler
I didn’t see this one live, but all the plays I saw with Zack on the mound in the condensed game video clip seemed to come on 3-2 pitches. Wheeler’s pitch count reached 86 through 4 innings. Unwelcome shades of 2014.
Robert Gsellman
Gsellman repeatedly froze lefties with the Bartolo Colon come-back two-seamer to the inside corner. He also snapped off some sharp curveballs. Robert didn’t throw quite enough strikes with his secondary pitches to keep hitters off the fastball – his slider in particular was mostly in the dirt – but he was still effective, and looked strong through 7 innings and 98 pitches.
What did you see?
Please share your observations in the comments!
Hard for me to imagine all 5 starters doing 7+, though. I’m guessing Wheeler’s pulled that off maybe 3 times in 48 career starts? (Looking it up now… okay, it’s 5 in 52, including 3 in the last 44.) With the Mets’ best starters being strikeout pitchers and none of them among the league’s most durable, I they’re unlikely to get through 7 on pitch counts the team can stomach, at least not on average nights. On good nights, sure.
So for a full turn of 7+, we just need good games by our top 3, a great game from Wheeler, and Gsellman’s sinker to be sinking and those grounders finding gloves. What are the chances of all 5 of those panning out? My statistics brain doesn’t like those odds.