Mets Today

After hearing that John Maine’s shoulder issues are compounded by a bone spur — and that his season may be in doubt — I thought it made sense to check with an expert on the subject.

Ironically, former Mets trainer Bob Sikes had already posted an enlightening article titled “The Bad Signs Regarding John Maine’s Shoulder” on his own blog Getting Paid to Watch.

From his article:

… a spur is almost best-case scenario as it’s easily shaved down through a scope. If there is minimal soft tissue damage, he could be back to full strength by spring training.

But what to do now?

It hurts and he is unable to throw between starts. Not throwing on the side often leads to performances like last night. It’s a routine he won?t be able to sustain. Although he had good velocity last night, he displayed poor command and had no movement on his fastball.

If he is unusually sore this morning, the Mets will know its not going its not going to work. The spur might be causing soft tissue damage and they will need to shut him down for the year to have the surgery and begin the rehab.

Ouch … and I mean that both literally AND figuratively.

Now that we know the possibilities ahead, it makes some sense to understand why this happened in the first place — so that it can be avoided in the future.
You may know I’ve been concerned with John Maine’s mechanics since July (OK, maybe obsessed). Through an interview on Live From Mickey Mantle’s and email correspondence over the weekend, Bob confirmed that the bone spur and the rotator cuff strain are probably related, and that both injuries could also have been the result of a mechanical flaw — though, he adds that the flaw may have been caused by the injury, rather than the other way around.

According to Bob:

… I’d imagine it was the weakness/discomfort in his shoulder led to the mechanical flaws … my best guess is that the spur is embedded in a tendon and probably developed slowly over the past year in much the same manner as does a heel spur. Wear and tear and inflammatory response to overuse is what causes spurs to pop up.

I don’t see him getting better. Not being able to throw between starts indicates pain which further puts him in a position for further poor mechanics and an increase in the likelihood of further injury. I like shutting him down and fixing it.

None of this is encouraging news for those who want to see John Maine on the mound again in 2008. But more to the point, it seems of utmost importance that Maine work under the supervision of a trained eye during his rehab, to ensure that bad habits in his delivery are ironed out.

Which brings up another interesting point: while Oliver Perez has benefited from the easygoing, hands-off coaching style of Dan Warthen, is it possible that the loss of structure and rigidity in preparation under Rick Peterson is part of Maine’s downfall — and his injury? Let’s not forget that Maine’s less-than-stellar second half of 2007 could be blamed on — by Maine’s own admission — not sticking to the strict workout schedule prescribed by The Jacket.

Whatever is to blame, the bottom line is, we should expect to move on to the end of 2008 without John Maine as an asset. As a result — and as Bob Sikes suggests — Jon Niese could be up here before September.

Prior to Saturday night’s game, it was reported that Billy Wagner complained of elbow discomfort after a 20-pitch bullpen session.

Those who follow MetsToday and pay attention should not be surprised, since I stated in the notes of Game 111 postgame analysis:

As if the bullpen weren’t bad enough, Billy Wagner has “tightness in his elbow” and was unavailable for the contest. My many years of being around pitchers tells me that he could be on the verge of an elbow issue — likely some form of tendinitis, such as epicondylitis (a.k.a., tennis elbow).

Not good news for the Mets.

Funny, ain’t it, that a know-nothing hack blogger like me predicted both John Maine’s shoulder issue and Wagner’s elbow problem?

Sometimes I really, really, really hate when I’m right. For example, in regard to John Maine.

Loyal readers may remember this paragraph I wrote about a week ago:

“As mentioned more than a few times this season on MetsToday, John Maine has a minor mechanical flaw in his delivery that is causing his command to be off. If he keeps it up, he’ll have more issues than not throwing strikes ? he’ll blow out his shoulder.”

As it turned out, he did not fix his flaw, and has since been diagnosed with “a mild strain of the rotator cuff”.

Of course, if you can find the time to read my dry postgame analyses, you would have read this Nostradamus-like prediction (items in bold added for emphasis):

Maine described his “shoulder tightness” as “a pain in the back of my shoulder”. That’s not good ? the back of the shoulder is where the rotator cuff resides. John’s mechanical flaw that we covered last week IS without a doubt the reason for the pain. He’s slowly tearing his rotator, and the MRI will show at the very least a strain. Bet on this: the MRI will show something inconclusive, the Mets will describe the injury as either “a shoulder strain”, “a strain of the rotator cuff”, or “tendinitis”, and announce he’ll miss his next start. What they should do, is put him on the 15-day DL right away. What will happen instead, is John will assure everyone he’s fine, he’ll pitch through the pain, and damage his shoulder even worse ? while pitching poorly.

Huh.

Once in a while, I know what I’m talking about. Just pointing this out for those of you who count on MetsToday for intelligent analysis — you’ve made the right choice.

By the way, you can read more about why John Maine injured his shoulder, and how further damage can be avoided, by reading my article today on Gotham Baseball.

So the news before the All-Star Break was that Moises Alou was finished for the year, having torn his hamstring in a rehab game the night before.

There had been suggestions that Alou did not need to rush back, that the Mets would be fine with Alou returning some time after the All-Star break, but apparently Alou was allowed to begin his comeback prematurely. There goes $7.5M, down the drain!

Alou appeared in a total of 15 games … a few short of the 90 or 100 many of us had hoped for. Hmm … that comes to half a million dollars per game. Nice job, Moises — that’s a better rate than Alex Rodriguez!

Enough of the jokes. Personally, I’m crushed about this news. Yes, I know it was silly to believe Moises could have given the Mets anything this year, but when the guy is on the field, he’s one of the five or six players in MLB I absolutely love to watch. The way he carries himself, plays the game all-out, with outstanding instincts and intelligence, plus his innate ability to drive in runs, makes him a pleasure to watch. I suppose all those verbs should have been presented in the past tense.

Anyway, now what will the Mets do without him? Until now, Omar Minaya had been under the assumption that the parade of leftfielders were stopgaps, keeping the position warm until Moises healed (we knew better). Now, there is no question — the Mets need a strong-hitting outfielder. The issue is exacerbated by the questionable condition of Ryan Church. The Mets’ 2008 offense — and their ultimate success — was planned around the idea that Alou would play 100-120 games (however irresponsible that was, it WAS the plan). Alou’s absence was somewhat alleviated by Church’s rise to stardom. But now, without either hitter, the Mets need to find someone.

Yes, the Mets have been winning without Alou AND Church lately. That doesn’t mean they can keep it going over the long haul. I would really like to believe that Fernando Tatis is having a renaissance season — much like Jose Valentin’s 2006, as one MetsToday reader recently suggested — but the Mets can’t count on him staying this hot. Even if they could, that only accounts for one corner outfield spot — one that would be handled by a very shaky and inexperienced defender.

Let’s take a look at the Mets options for left and right fields, both in-house and outside the organization.

A combination of Fernando Tatis, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, and Nick Evans / Chris Aguila

The righthanded hitters — Tatis and Evans — both started shagging fly balls a few months ago, so the outfield defense will take a hit when the opposing team puts a lefty on the mound. Anderson might be worse defender than both of them, and is still slumping as he struggles to stay near the Mendoza Line. Chavez brings a great glove to the table and has been a hot hitter of late — however, he also tends to be a streaky hitter, and is bound to hit a cold streak with regular duty. The jury is still out on Aguila. It’s not an impossibility to believe this ramshackle group can somehow pull off near-average production compared to other NL corner outfielders, though my guess is the power numbers will be lower than the mean for both positions. Still, the Mets could get by IF Brian Schneider hits better than expected, Damion Easley remains hot, and Carlos Delgado continues on the road back to respectability. However, those are all big ifs.

Trot Nixon

The forgotten Nixon is waiting around on the DL, and could be activated as early as Sunday. He could find time in the above menagerie while the Mets wait for Church to return, though eventually the team would have to decide between him and Marlon Anderson. Trot will never hit for the power he did a few years ago, but is still a solid defender and a good on-base guy who plays inspirational, all-out ball. If he gets another shot on the 25-man roster, he’ll have to hit to stick. Who knows, maybe he can.

Fernando Martinez

Omar Minaya did not hesitate to promote Carlos Gomez last season, despite his rawness. Gomez was clearly overmatched at the plate, but held his own in the field, made the most of his best weapon (speed), and provided a jolt of energy and spunk to an otherwise languishing lineup. Can F-Mart be a similar inspiration? Somehow I doubt it. Where Gomez already had at least three of the five MLB-ready tools (arm, fielding, and speed), Martinez doesn’t have any. One day, F-Mart will be a power hitter in the mold of Juan Gonzalez (we’re told). Otherwise, his fielding and arm are projected to be average, his running speed average to above-average, and his ability to hit for average will be, well, average. His most impactful tool will be his power, and unfortunately it hasn’t yet arrived (yes, he can hit balls out in BP, but he has only 4 HRs in 221 ABs — a rate similar to that of Luis Castillo). He’s probably running faster now than he ever will, but he’s no speed demon — it’s not like he can make up for his inability to make contact by dragging bunts, as Gomez did last year. At age 19, he’s an exciting bundle of talent, but nowhere near ready to contribute in the bigs yet. All that said, he’ll probably be promoted — but don’t rush to get him onto your fantasy team.

Dan Murphy

The 23-year-old third baseman for the B-Mets skipped all the way from 14 at-bats at short-season NY-Penn League in 2007 to AA this year and hasn’t missed a beat. He’s batting .311 with a .854 OPS though 75 games. However, his 17 errors at the hot corner and the presence of David Wright suggest he’ll need to move to another spot on the field before he moves up to the bigs (for the Mets, at least). How about moving him now and seeing what happens? I wouldn’t be surprised if B-Mets manager Mako Oliveras started inserting “LF” next to his name in the lineup. He’s a longshot, at best.

Valentino Pascucci

Some fans (including yours truly) were clamoring for Pascucci while he was in the midst of a torrid hot streak earlier this year. Since then, he has cooled considerably and scouts report he is a major liability in the field. If he’s not blasting homeruns, he’s not much help; his window of hotness may have passed.

John Rodriguez

A homecoming for the New York-born Rodriguez would make for a nice story. Unfortunately, I don’t know that he’d be much help. He’s essentially Endy Chavez, minus the speed. Good fielder, high average hitter off the bench, but no power, strikes out too often for a singles hitter, and only an average runner.

Nelson Cruz

MetsBlog reported that many teams around MLB were “interested” in Cruz, who is tearing up the PCL with a .343 average and 26 homers and 89 RBI in only 289 at-bats (take that, Josh Hamilton!). Anyone whose been reading MetsToday knows I’ve been screaming for this guy since January (and reiterated several times in March) — but hey, what do I know? Cruz can hit for power and play the field capably; his one issue is swinging and missing. But heck, that was Jack Cust’s problem, too, but he still did OK. If the Mets can pry him away for a few non-prospects, it’s worth the gamble.

Richie Sexson

Don’t laugh! Sexson came up as an outfielder / first baseman before settling in the infield. While true his Major League experience in the outfield is only 109 games, that’s still about 90 more than Tatis. And now that he’s been released by the Mariners, he can be obtained for nothing. Why not roll the dice? No risk, all reward. Besides, the Mets haven’t had a slugging, whiffing, sourpuss like this since Dave Kingman. It might be nice to have an ornery malcontent hanging around the clubhouse — the two Carloses would suddenly look like media mavens.

Billy Hall

Hall became a part-time player in May, and has been none too happy about it. He strikes out a ton, and can’t hit righties, but he’s still better than most of the Mets’ in-house options. He’d come much more cheaply than, say, Xavier Nady, and he could be emotionally inspired to prove the Brewers wrong. As an added bonus, he can also play 3B, SS, and 2B. If the cost is not too high, he’d be worth acquiring. Considering he’s already requested a trade, and he’s owed over $15M through 2010, he could be obtained for less than his true value.

Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Matt Holliday, Adam Dunn

Not happening. If any of these players come the Mets’ way, please shoot me, because it means they sent away the last dregs of an already compromised farm system.

Ken Griffey

Could the Mets steal him for a few mid-level prospects? Probably not. The only decent chips they have are the aforementioned Murphy, Evans, Mike Carp, and Jon Niese. The Reds might be interested in Niese, but likely none of the others. I wouldn’t send away any man on the current 25-man roster for Junior (i.e., Aaron Heilman) — we need every one of them.

Frank Catalanotto, Kenny Lofton

Why? I’d rather stand pat with the current crew. We don’t need any more overaged singles hitters.

Raul Ibanez

If he can be had for less than I think, by all means a solid solution. At age 36, he fits right into Minaya’s ideal age range, and the New York City native coming home will be a more exciting story than the aforementioned Rodriguez. He still collects extra-base hits, fields his position admirably, and can drive in runs. Whether he can be obtained for a fair package, however, is another story.

Bottom Line

Omar Minaya WILL make a deal. His hand is forced, and his job is on the line. Ibanez seems like the most “Minayalike” acquisition, even though it’s been reported that the Mets are no longer interested in the lefthanded-hitting outfielder. I’d guess Hall is the second option being discussed — Hall fits the “salary dump” descriptive that the Mets are using as leverage in talks, and he hits from the righthand side. Third scenario would have to be something with Baltimore, though I’m not sure what the Mets have that the Orioles want. In conclusion, the player acquired is most likely to be no one mentioned in this post.

Share your guesses and thoughts in the comments.

The 2008 comeback attempt of Jose Valentin has come to an end.

After hitting a pinch-hit homerun for New Orleans, Valentin called the Mets’ front office to say that he was shutting it down for the rest of the season — but is not yet ready to retire.

Valentin had been struggling in his recovery from both a pinched nerve in his neck and a strained right elbow, and that the lack of progress in rehabilitating those injuries was the major factor in his decision. He did say that he would rest and looked forward to initiating another comeback beginning with winter ball later this year.

Too bad for Jose, who is a class act, a legitimate gamer, and missed presence in the Mets’ clubhouse.

Somewhat related to this news was the plethora of quotes by Tony Bernazard in the “official” report on Mets.com. Personally, I don’t remember Bernazard being directly quoted in an official Mets news article more than three times in the last two years. However, he’s quoted several times in this one. Hmmmmmmmmmm …..

In other injury news, Ryan Church is now jogging and throwing, and will be hitting next week, according to John Delcos.

Delcos also reports that Moises Alou “might take batting practice next week”. Additionally, Delcos’ column states:

Assistant GM Tony Bernazard said he wouldn’t be surprised either way if Alou is available by the All-Star break.

Once again, what the heck is up with Tony “Rasputin” Bernazard supplying information?

By the way, what does “surprised either way” mean? He wouldn’t be surprised if he’s available, and wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not? This is supposed to be a scoop-worthy nugget of wisdom unearthed by a tenacious journalist? Or is it a writer scared to death of losing his credentials, and trying to get on Tony’s good side?

This Machiavellian routine grows more disturbing every day.

So … Moises Alou is placed on the 15-day DL after a stiff wind strained his calf. And the man to replace him on the 25-man roster is … Raul Casanova?

Huh?

I suppose this means Willie Randolph will consider using Ramon Castro as a pinch-hitter, but otherwise this is a real head-scratcher. Why in the world would the Mets not promote Valentino Pascucci?

Take a look at this line:

21 G| 79 AB | 23 H | 7 2B | 7 HR | 16 RBI | .380 OBP | .646 SLG | 1.026 OPS | .291 AVG

He’s a righthanded hitter who is a natural first baseman but playing the outfield for the Zephyrs. Hmm … the Mets could really use a RH power bat who can play 1B and the OF, dontcha think? Wouldn’t it be a nice idea to put a hot hitter like Pascucci at 1B against lefties, with Carlos Delgado struggling mightily?

It’s not a roster issue, because the Mets have only 37 men on their 40-man … and two of the spots are inexplicably being used by Ruddy Lugo and Ambiorix Burgos. Lugo is not a commodity, and Burgos should be placed on the 60-day DL as he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery (a player on the 60-day does not count against the 40-man roster).

I do understand that Casanova played well in his brief stint earlier this year. However, what was the point of signing Pascucci, if he wasn’t going to be considered for MLB play? He’s a career minor leaguer who has proven himself at the AAA level, and never quite been given a fair opportunity in the bigs. We assumed his signing was one of those “lightning in a bottle” moves. But now we know he was just filler material — much like Chip Ambres last year, who was similarly passed over several times despite great numbers when the Mets were desperate for outfield help.

This spot-starter on Wednesday thing is sure going to ruffle some feathers on the Mets’ roster.

According to Adam Rubin, the promotion of Claudio Vargas is a done deal. That means Tony Armas, Jr. and Adam Bostick — currently the two best starters down in N’Ola — are staying put.

However, Rubin also suggests that Nelson Figueroa — and not Joe Smith — is the one going down (as I suggested) because “…a Vargas call-up would mean heâ??s in the rotation for more than one turn.” Not sure I agree with that one. On the contrary, my guess is that the Mets feel that Vargas has the best chance of clearing waivers on the way back down — and I’m also guessing they’ll send him right back down the next day. Vargas didn’t have too many teams clamoring for his services after being dropped by the Brewers, and his near-five ERA in AAA isn’t helping his value. Armas, on the other hand, is pitching fairly well through a significant sample (eight starts).

Rubin, though, has better inside info than me, and his reasoning is this: Vargas stays up and Jorge Sosa is DFA’d to make room for Matt Wise. If that’s the case, I’d bet the house that Sosa and his 7+ ERA clear waivers and he accepts a plane ticke to New Orleans.

More interesting news from Rubin is that Fernando Tatis could be on the way up, and Angel Pagan heading to the DL. Pagan’s shoulder is still bothering him since crashing into the seats running after a fly ball a week ago. Tatis is only hitting .242, but has 10 homers in only 120 at-bats. The homerun total could be a function of the small parks of the homer-friendly PCL, but I still think it’s a good idea to bring up a guy when he’s on fire. Strangely, though, Val Pascucci — with 5 homers in 49 ABs, a .306 average, and .735 SLG%, remains down on the farm. Neither Pascucci nor Tatis is currently on the 40-man, so I’m not understanding the “business” behind the move.

Though, it could be that Tatis can play second base, and Luis Castillo’s injured quad may be worse than we know.

The “official” moves could be coming as early as this afternoon, so I’ll keep you posted.

About 24 hours ago, we were told that Moises Alou might miss another few months due to an undisclosed ankle injury. Today, however, we are told that Alou has been cleared for baseball activities and will join the team on Friday in Arizona. The “team” being the New York Mets, the “big club”, the guys who play at the MLB level. I won’t hold my breath, as Moises may strain his wrist brushing his teeth between now and then.

In other news, Brian Schneider’s mysterious thumb infection has not responded and the backstop remains in the hospital. Time to call in Dr. Gregory House?

While Alou’s hernia miraculously developed into a phantom ankle sprain, Schneider’s issue has been termed both “a staph infection” and “not a staph infection”. The latest explanation is a

“mixed organism infection caused by normal skin bacteria”, and that, while it was partly associated with staph, it was not the more serious kind of problem usually associated with a staph infection.(source: New York Times).

Super. Clear as mud. Oh, and to make things more confusing, there hasn’t been any official word that Schneider has yet left the hospital, but Omar Minaya stated that “You could even see him back here (today)”. Maybe “here” meant the hospital?

More certain is that Matt Wise will return to the team for the weekend series in AZ — which means either Joe Smith or Jorge Sosa likely will be sent down to AAA to make room. My money is on Smith, who is pitching more effectively but who has options.

In addition, Jose Valentin’s neck is feeling better, and he also has been cleared for baseball activities. He will be hitting off a tee and long tossing in Port St. Lucie, according to Adam Rubin.

Also, that guy who used to be the backup catcher — the one who resembles Shrek — is still limping. I forget his name but I think his dad used to sell convertible couches.

Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez continue to soak in the sun and fun in their extended Florida vacation. Neither are likely to fly north until the temperatures rise above 80 in the NYC area. Similarly, no news on Jason Vargas, though his non-brother Claudio pitched five innings for Port St. Lucie on Monday, giving up one run, no walks, three hits and striking out 6. Nice outing, but remember he’s facing 19-year-old A-ballers.

Breaking news: Brian Schneider has an infected thumb and has been sent back to New York for diagnosis (according to Adam Rubin and via MetsBlog.

Hmm … that leaves Raul Casanova as the Mets starting and backup catcher. Considering that Willie Randolph gets the hives just thinking about going the final two innings of a game without a backup backstop, my guess is there will be a roster move to make room for Gustavo Molina or Mike Nickeas — assuming Schneider’s issue is day-to-day and not something that requires 15 days of inactivity.

Looking up and down the 25-man roster, it appears that Brady Clark would be the odd man out.

With the typical game burning through 5-6 arms, the Mets can’t demote a pitcher — though if they do, one would surmise that Joe Smith is the one who would go down. And as far as position players go, the choice is among the bench guys: Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley, and Clark. I’m pretty sure Endy and the others are out of options, and the Mets wouldn’t risk placing any of them on waivers. Clark, however, would likely pass through, and if he didn’t, the Mets wouldn’t be crushed. After all, Fernando Tatis is waiting in AAA, and he is both a switch hitter and more versatile.

Personally, I don’t want to see Clark go, but at the moment he’s the most expendable man on the team. Unless, of course, he’s prepared to strap on the tools of ignorance — which is a slight possibility.

A few years ago, we Mets fans were frustrated with Jose Reyes — he teased us with unreal talent, but couldn’t stay on the field due to hamstring problems. It appeared that he’d never play often enough to fulfill his immense potential.

However, after changing his running style, then changing it back again, then going through myriad stretching and training programs, Jose finally kicked the hammy problems for good.

Or so we thought.

Today Jose Reyes was absent from the lineup due to a “tight” hamstring. An MRI revealed that it was in fact a “mild strain“. According to Mets officials, Reyes will take off the rest of the weekend but be able to play on Tuesday. Strangely enough, Pedro Martinez also has a “mild strain”, but won’t return to the mound until late June. Hmmmm…..

While the Mets did not win without Reyes in the lineup on Saturday, it was more because they ran into the buzzsaw known as Ben Sheets than Jose’s absence. After all, Reyes is off to a slow start, barely hitting above the Mendoza Line — I doubt he would have made a difference. And with Angel Pagan playing with his head in the clouds, the Mets will be OK for the short term. But let’s hope a few days of rest is all Jose needs to get his legs — and mojo — back. With the assorted other injuries already decimating the Mets’ roster, a chronic condition with Jose Reyes’ hamstrings would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.