Inside Look: Mets vs. Astros
After sweeping the Braves out of Shea, the New York Mets begin a weekend series tonight against the Houston Astros.
The Astros come in with a 64-63 record, which is respectable, but puts them in fourth place, 14 games behind the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs.
In many ways, the Astros are something of a disappointment this season, considering their offensive output in 2007 and significant offseason moves. However, it’s not looking good for them right now, and we’ve called on Lisa Gray of MVN’s Astros Dugout to give us an idea of what happened down in Houston.
1. What the heck happened? After acquiring Miguel Tejada in the offseason, the Astros seemed poised to make a serious run at the playoffs. Where did the plans for success go wrong?
Miguel Tejada was not the offensive force that the Astros thought he was and in fact, he has had only one good month with the bat. J.R. Towles and Michael Bourn also were not the offensive forces. But the main reason there hasn’t been the kind of success that the Organization hoped for is that they simply do not have good pitching.
2. Any consideration to putting Brandon Backe at 1B or LF when he’s not pitching? That .308 average and .513 slugging percentage is pretty impressive.
Well, we have Lance Berkman at first and he is kind of pretty good you know what I’m sayin. The person he might replace is Hunter Pence in right, who has seriously regressed as a hitter this year, another reason this team hasn’t done nearly as well offensively as predicted.
3. In mid-July, the Houston was mired in last place, over a dozen games out of first in a division that is clearly dominated by the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs. Yet, GM Ed Wade was wheeling and dealing like the Astros were in the thick of the pennant race. What was he thinking, and how do you as a fan feel about him bringing in re-treads and rentals such as Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins?
I understand why it was done – the owner thinks that if he doesn’t put a team of vets on the field and say that we’re “competing” that fans won’t show up. However, he really has no one of any value to trade who doesn’t have a no-trade, and there really are no minor leaguers near to ready to come up. I just hope that we don’t re-sign LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf.
4. Maybe I’m being too harsh … as an Astros fan, are you still hopeful that the playoffs are possible, or have you resigned to rebuilding for 2009?
Oh, I’m always hopeful. I’m hopeful that Grady Sizemore will call me this afternoon and tell me he’s in love with me. However, I’m not holding my breath. And I’m not holding my breath about “rebuilding” for 2009 either. We may see Felipe Paulino in the rotation, if he’s healthy, and we will probably see J.R. Towles take Ausmus’ spot, but I doubt there will be any trades of veterans for prospects.
5. Who has been the biggest surprise this season? The biggest disappointment?
The biggest surprise has been Ty Wigginton, who has fielded better than the absolute disaster I expected, and hit better (except with RISP) than I expected, even before his hot streak.
The biggest disappointment, I guess, would be Miguel Tejada, who occupies the #3 hole and can’t hit with MOB or drive in runs. Unlike many other fans, I didn’t expect Tejada to hit .330 and hit 50 homers, but he hasn’t lived up to even 50th percentile projections.
6. What would you like to see happen with the Astros between now and the end of the season? During the offseason?
sigh….
What I would LIKE to see isn’t going to happen.
I would really like this team to try to acquire prospects and good young players, but they won’t, so at the very least, I would like them to try to sign at least ONE starter who could be a #2 as we ALREADY have plenty of #5 type guys.
7. What youngster(s), either on the Astros 25-man roster now or in the minors, should we be looking for this September and in 2009?
I would like to see Tommy Manzella, shortstop, whose glove is said to equal Adam Everett’s and J.R. Towles, who has regained his stroke at AAA. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if they instead call up a bunch of washed up AAAA guys.
Again, in 09, best I can tell right now, the only guys I am pretty sure about are Paulino and Towles. IF Brian Bogusevic, who couldn’t get A ball guys out as a pitcher, continues to hit like Ankiel, he might could earn a call-up, youneverknow.
Thanks again to Lisa Gray for her insight. Be sure to check out Astros Dugout for more information on the Houston Astros.
Inside Look: Colorado Rockies
The “new” Mets, led by interim manager Jerry Manuel, head to the hills to play the Colorado Rockies for a three-game weekend series.
Last year’s NL Champions are having a tough time so far this season, struggling with a 31-42 record and 8 games behind the NL West leading Arizona Diamondbacks. The only thing keeping them out of the cellar is the fact that the Giants and Padres are performing just as poorly. However, all is not lost for the Rox. It’s still early in the season, and the D-Backs are not exactly dominating the West. All a Colorado fan must do to keep the faith is look to last year and the Rockies’ mad rush down the wire that placed them in the postseason. A similar rush could be starting right now, in fact — the Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and should have key players returning from the DL shortly.
To get a view of the Rockies from up in the mountains, we called on Brandi Griffin — a.k.a., “RoxGirl” — from Purple Row, one of the popular Rockies blogs.
1. Last year’s rollercoaster ride saw the Rockies go from pretenders to contenders, ending up in the World Series. Thus far this season, the Rox are mired in the NL West cellar and 12 games under .500. What do you think is the chance of a repeat of last year — a strong finish that takes them back to the postseason?
First of all, I think it’s crucial that the Rockies get within a couple of games of .500 by the All-Star Break. There’s simply no reason to think that a team more than five games under with seventy left to play has a chance to come back, regardless of how close they are to the division lead. Beyond that, however, the fact of the matter is that the NL West is still very much in play as only eight and a half games separate the division leader from the cellar dweller (which as of last night, is no longer the Rox, thankfully).The Diamondbacks had a chance to put the division in the cooler in May, but didn’t. Now everybody else, including the Rockies, has an opportunity to make a comeback. As for the Rockies chances specifically, I wouldn’t put it past them. Last season, the Rockies were still eight games back in the division as late as the beginning of July, so if we can close the gap a little these next couple of weeks, we should become a viable threat.
Plus, last season’s experience could benefit the team as the pressure mounts. I would think it would get easier to make stunning comeback runs if you had experience with them beforehand. Holes in one in golf are a good analogy. The odds of making just one are staggering, and to make two the odds are seen as sort of monumental, but it is a skill we’re talking about, and golfers who have made hole-in-ones in the past are as a group more likely to have future hole-in-ones than players who have never hit one. I think the experience of a successful late charge gives the Rockies one edge over the rest of their division rivals in the comeback chase, but I’ll grant that having a solid one through five in the rotation and an All-Star caliber lineup just perhaps might be a slightly bigger edge. Luckily, none of the NL West teams can boast that.
One thing that plays against the Rockies this season is that it’s looking likely that the Wild Card is going to be completely out of reach to NL West teams (thanks solely to our own ineptitude) by the middle of July, if it’s not already. The Mets and other teams around .500 or above definitely have an advantage in that there are still two possible avenues to the playoffs for them, the Rockies only chance this year it seems is to overtake the D-backs.
2. Injuries have been a problem for the Rox this year, but the fill-ins, for the most part, have done an admirable job. When / if everyone is healthy, who will be playing shortstop and second base?
Shortstop will be played by Troy Tulowitzki, second base might be more of an open question for a little while. Tulo’s April was awful, but there was a lot of bad luck with balls in play in his stats, and I think colder weather is a bigger factor for him than it is for many other players. Ian Stewart will likely be sent back to AAA to improve his pitch recognition while Omar Quintanilla will stay on as a defensive replacement and left-handed utility player. Second will come down to either Jeff Baker or Clint Barmes. Baker’s got the hot bat right now, but Barmes was almost equally impressive before his injury and he brings better defense at the position. I think Hurdle will use Baker as a super-sub for Helton or Hawpe against left-handed pitching, also to spell Atkins on occasion, and Barmes will be the primary second baseman but will be subbed for by Baker on some days as well, especially if his bat goes as cold as it did the last time he went down with an extended injury. Similarly, if Tulo continues to struggle, Hurdle will start to use a Barmes at short, Baker at second combo fairly frequently. It’s good to have as many options as we do, though, I’d rather have too many good bats that the manager is trying to find time for than not enough.
3. Over the winter, the Mets signed and then “unsigned” Yorvit Torrealba. Are you happy he returned? Was there ever any scoop in Colorado as to why the Mets contract fell apart?
The word that was leaked was that the Mets suddenly had concerns about Torrealba’s shoulder. However, since they never actually had anybody do a physical on Yorvit, it tells me that this is probably a complete fabrication. Watching how Omar Minaya operates when he wants to get out of something leads to me suspect that the truth is that somehow Minaya actually figured out that no other team was going to bid close to as much for Torrealba, so he just burned those bridges quickly and thoroughly in an attempt to avoid being discredited by the New York media for such a glaringly stupid move as offering the contract in the first place. Good for you guys that you got out of it, but I think it should have been more of a sign that your front office can be pretty clueless than it was taken for at the time.
I think Yorvit does well as a backup or split time catcher, as he’s shown lately while Chris Iannetta has gotten more playing time, but is particularly ill-suited for a starter’s role. He has a tendency to get complacent in both his approach at the plate and behind it if he doesn’t feel like he’s being pushed or his job is being threatened and he doesn’t have nearly enough skills to stay valuable while also slacking like that.
4. What’s the chance of Brian Fuentes finishing the year in a Colorado uniform? Is Manny Corpas ready to be a closer?
Corpas has struggled a bit this season with his mechanics and until he shows that he’s fixed this the answer is no. As for Fuentes, I think it depends on how close we are and how desperate other GMs are. Fuentes is almost certain to be a Type A free agent after the season, meaning any deal would have to be equal or greater than the value of two top 60 draft picks. I don’t know if I’d want my team giving up that kind of package for a rental reliever unless I was sure that this was all I needed to put me over the top. Fuentes is very good at his job, and underappreciated by most Rockies fans and certainly baseball fans in general. Imagine if you had a reliever over three seasons pitch 208 1/3 innings with a 3.24 ERA, a 228/71 K/BB ratio and a .681 OPS against. Pretty good, right? Now think about if that reliever did that while playing every single one of his games in the most hitter friendly stadium in the majors in Coors Field. That’s Fuentes’ line at Coors and the context should take him from “yeah, not bad,” to “dang this guy’s good” if one’s fairly assessing him.
5. Dang indeed. Moving on … Who has been the biggest disappointment on the Rockies thus far? Who has been the most pleasant surprise?
Lots of possibilities for disappointment. I think, for me, I would have to eliminate guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Manny Corpas or Franklin Morales because they are so young and talented, and inconsistency is just sort of a way of life with young ballplayers typically. So while they’re certainly disappointing, there’s enough hope for a brighter future there to mitigate that. So I guess my biggest disappointment would be with Jeff Francis, who after winning 17 games for us last season, and for the most part pitching like he deserved that, has just been woeful this season. It’s a heavy blow to take when one of your expected top two starters, a veteran, but not an old one, whose performances should be relatively consistent, suddenly falls off a cliff. Francis has pitched better the last couple of outings, so I’m hoping for a turnaround, but he’s been the cause of a lot of my pessimism and angst this year.
As for pleasant surprises, I think I was most surprised by the resurgence of Clint Barmes, which I just really didn’t see coming and am frankly still a little skeptical about.
6. Bottom of the ninth, tie game, two outs, winning run on third. Who on the Rockies do you want to see at the plate?
Matt Holliday. Easily. I mean clutch might not be a real phenomenon, but he’s one of those players that has definitely given a lot of positive enforcement to the contrary, leading the team in WPA each of the last two seasons. You compare him to say Garrett Atkins, who overall hits very well, but doesn’t seem to come through late in games or with runners on as often or Todd Helton, who can be counted on for a walk or the occasional dramatics but not the consistent show stopper. People remember the bloody chin slide and phantom tag of home more, but just before that, Matt’s opposite field triple in game 163 against Trevor Hoffman to tie the game was just an incredible piece of hitting in one of the most leveraged situations imaginable.
7. Same situation as above, but the Mets are at bat. Who would you least like to see in the batter’s box?
Beltran would be nerve wracking, but I’d have to go with David Wright. I know from my fantasy team that he hasn’t had his best season, but he’s clearly a dangerous hitter. If you are wanting my off-the-wall, from a Rockies fan only perspective, I’ll also add Damion Easley. Seriously. He reached safely in four straight pinch-hit or late-game defensive sub ABs against us over the last two seasons, including a double and a game winning homerun (which started the streak) in April 2007 before we finally got him out for once this past May. He;s been added to my list of Pedro Feliz All-Stars, players who are top caliber against the Rockies but scrubs to everybody else.
Well done. Thanks again to RoxGirl for providing insight on the upcoming Mets – Rockies series. Be sure to check out PurpleRow for top-notch information on the Colorado Rockies.
Inside Look: Nationals Park
The Nats have a new stadium this year, so I thought it might be interesting to ask a few questions of a Washington fan to learn more about it.
Herewith a quick Q & A with Chris Needham of Capitol Punishment.
1. What in particular is so special about Nationals Park … for example, is there something that would motivate someone from another city to jump on a plane to watch a ballgame there?
I’m not sure I’d travel long distances to see it. It’s a nice place, a perfectly average ballpark. My parents visited this weekend, and liked the views of the Capitol building from various sections. They also liked the ginormous video board.
On a personal note, I’m just happy to see a park with fences at normal depths. I’ve seen more homers in the three games I’ve been to this year than I did in the 70 or so I saw at RFK! (only partially exaggerated there….!)
2. Peter Angelos was against having a team in DC for a long time. Do you think he had good reason, and/or do you believe the Orioles have lost fans or revenues because of the Nats? How will the new stadium compete with Camden Yards, if at all?
That’s a tough one. I think there were plenty of DC and Virginia baseball fans who went to Orioles games because that was their only alternative, not because they were fans of Brooks Robinson. Many (most?) of those have stuck with the Nats. For the guys in the MD suburbs, I would imagine that their loyalties haven’t necessarily transferred. Being in different leagues, I know a few people who have two favorites — this isn’t quite Yankees/Mets!
I’d suspect that at the end of the year, 55-60 thousand fans will combine per game for these two probable last-place teams. That’s not bad.
And another thing to keep in mind is that Angelos owns the TV rights to the Nats. So their success means money in his pocket. That’s a screwy deal in and of itself, and the cause of much teeth-gnashing around here, especially in that first year when nobody could see the games, because cable companies refused to carry the TV network.
3. Since there are so many politicians and foreign dignitaries in DC, is security at Nationals Park tougher than in other MLB stadiums? Are there bulletproof luxury suites?
Nah. I’ve been frisked more thoroughly going into Yankee Stadium. And he didn’t even buy me dinner before! When they announce that the president will be there in advance, they put up metal detectors. But there have been a game or two where he just showed up, sitting in the box, unnoticed by most.
Inside Look: Chicago Cubs
The Mets are in Wrigleyville for a two-game set, playing the 2007 NL Central Champion Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs return as the favorites in 2008, led again by skipper Lou Piniella, sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Derrek Lee, and riding the arm of Carlos Zambrano, among others. New this year is their closer, who as of now is Kerry Wood.
To get a more in-depth look of the Cubs, we turn to Rob G. of The Cub Reporter.
1. After a first-place finish in 2007, the Cubs look poised to make a return to the postseason in 2008. Who do you see as the most serious challengers to the NL Central crown, and why?
The Brewers remain our biggest competition. There’s a lot of talent over there, a lot of young talent that you just hope doesn’t take off at the same time. That being said, Sheets is already dealing with his yearly injury and Prince Fielder has one home run after going on a vegetarian diet. And signing Eric Gagne a few days before the Mitchell Report came out, might go down as one of the boneheaded moves of all time.
Otherwise I thought the Reds were the only team with a chance before the year started, but they’ve got the wrong manager for that group of young talent. A manager who still thinks Corey Patterson can bat lead-off.
2. Do the Cubs go to the postseason without Lou Piniella as manager?
Oh sure, Lou is great and all, but the Cubs have a payroll in the top five. That probably has more to do with their success than the bench jockey. But I’m glad he’s sitting on the Cubs bench…
3. Tell us about Kosuke Fukudome — something we can’t see in his statline.
He strikes me as an incredibly smart ballplayer that knows the situation at all times. The common perception that Pacific Rim players are well-trained in the fundamentals, certainly seems true in this case.
4. How and why did Matt Murton not make the Opening Day roster? (I do see he was finally promoted)
There are a few reasons. First, he’s gotten into a funk with his swing and seems to be hitting everything on the ground right now. Mostly Lou wanted a little more versatility off the bench and a left-handed bat over a right-handed one. With Mike Fontenot, he can move Mark DeRosa to left or right if needed and Fontenot can play shortstop in a desperate pinch.
5. Are you comfortable with Kerry Wood as the closer and do you think he’ll stay in that role all season?
As long as he stays healthy he’ll be the closer all year. Kerry possibly has the best “stuff” in all of baseball (a career K/9 rate of 10.81 being the basis for that statement), so I think he can handle the role just fine.
6. Is Ryan Theriot for real?
Well yes, he isn’t a cyborg. Snark aside, he’s an okay ballplayer with a limited skill set that he does a great job of maximizing. If he can keep an average around .300, and he has the contact ability and speed to do that, he can be incredibly valuable as he’ll likely have an OBP of around .350 or .360 then. Because of his limited power though, he’s at the mercy of the BABIP gods (Batting Average on Balls In Play) when it comes to his batting average. If he hits in the .260 range though like last year, he’s not so useful and the Cubs will be looking for an upgrade.
7. Predictions: Who will be the Cubs’ MVP in ‘08? Who will be the biggest surprise?
I’ll go out on a limb on this one and say the guy leading the league in home runs right now, Derrek Lee. Before the season, I would have said Aramis Ramirez. As for biggest suprise, I’ll go out on another limb and take the guy with the 3-0 record, Ryan Dempster. But I do think most folks expected him to crash and burn as a starter, while I think he’ll be be an asset to the team.
Thanks again to Rob G. for his insight into the Cubbies. Be sure to check out The Cub Reporter for all the “inside info” on the Chicago Cubs.
Inside Look: Washington Nationals
Usually we do these “inside looks” before a series begins, but Willie Randolph’s lineup changes have inspired me to “mix it up a little”.
That said, this time around we’re getting the Nationals fan’s point of view at the end of the series, instead of the beginning.
Chris Needham of Capitol Punishment was kind enough to answer a few of my questions regarding the Washington Nationals.
1. After an exciting and emotional start on Opening Day in Nationals Park, the Nats fell flat on their collective faces — and it appears it’s going to be a long season for the DC fans.
What keeps you motivated to watch and attend games?
Hey now, that’s a loaded question! You didn’t stop watching in 2003 when Ty Wigginton batted cleanup! I’m not convinced it’s going to be as long a season as you suggest, even if it’s probably going to be a bad one. Slumps happen. Our just happened to come in the first fortnight, instead of the last month.
2. Obviously, the Nats are rebuilding. Are there any big-time prospects who may come up for a tease later in the year? How is the minor league system looking overall?
The most immediate big prospect looming is last year’s first-round pick, Ross Detwiler. He’s a tall left-hander who, if he succeeds in the minors, has nobody in front of him, blocking his path. With the bat, the top bat is Chris Marrero, but he’s likely 2 years away. Other than a few other starting pitchers (none of whom have terribly high ceilings), there aren’t really any impact players ready in the next year or so.
That being said, there are lots of intriguing players down in the lower levels. The Nats have an excellent scouting and development team in place now, and they’ve spent as much money there as any other team. It paid dividends, and their farm system has gone from the bottom towards the upper third of teams in just a draft or two. There’s hope for the future!
3. Ryan Zimmerman appears to be the “face” of the Washington Nationals. Who is the #2 personality on the team?
Dmitri Young is the biggest personality on the team, but the other big bat is clearly Nick Johnson. Neither he nor Zimmerman really come across as much of a personality, certainly not to the extent that Dmitri has.
4. How do you feel about the Nats’ public position that Dmitri Young is a “positive influence” on youngsters such as Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes?
I’m not really in a position to judge that sort of thing, other than to make some guesses. If as many people who say that are saying it — and not all are directly employed by the team! — then there’s probably something to it.
5. Has there been any chatter regarding Paul LoDuca’s inclusion in the Mitchell Report?
Well, he’s not particularly well-liked by most Nats fans, but that has as much to do with his cold hitting and his blocking of Jesus Flores. Amazingly, he did tell nationals.com that he was sorry for using and doing what he did, probably the most direct apology of any of the active players listed in the report.
6. Speaking of ex-Mets, how are you liking Lastings Milledge in centerfield so far?
Loving it! He’s a fun player to watch. He’s got a little bit of speed. He’s got a little bit of power. A little bit of patience. And just a dash of flash. He makes watching the games enjoyable.
He’s not a perfect player, but he’s in the right situation, where the focus is on what he does well, and not what he does wrong, nor who he’s ticking off. It’s a live and let live kind of clubhouse.
7. What should we know about Brian Schneider and Ryan Church that we wouldn’t find on the back of their baseball cards?
Well, two nights ago was the Brian Schneider Nats fans came to know and love. Weak grounders and soft flares are his main strategy. Occasionally, they fall in, as they did the first week. They won’t all year. He’s got a great reputation for working with pitchers, but that increased as the bat fell into the crapper, so I’m not sure how much stock I put into it.
Church is an interesting player. When he’s on a streak, he’s really pushing your team forward. I know you’ve already seen his arm, which always has been an asset. But he also seems like a player who lets slumps get inside his head. If he’s slumping and the team isn’t performing, I’d be concerned about whether he’ll be able to keep his head in the game.
8. Who do you think will be the biggest surprise on the Nationals this season?
If you had asked me a week ago, I’d have said Austin Kearns…. so that shows you what I know! The team’s slumping terribly, but that’s because 4 or 5 of their biggest hitters are all in the tank now. Once they revert to form, this team could hum along, and I think the 70ish win total that most predicted is certainly doable.
Or the whole thing could fall apart and we’d lose 110! Ya never know!
Thanks again to Chris for sharing his unique perspective. Be sure to visit Capitol Punishment for in-depth coverage of the Washington Nationals.
Inside Look: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers come to town for a three game weekend series, and the Mets won’t see them again until September (makes you think they’re still in the American League).
Last year, the Brew Crew rode the bats of Prince Fielder and rookie Ryan Braun to an 83-79, second-place finish in the NL Central. Many believe the Brewers would have taken the division championship had ace pitcher Ben Sheets been healthy all year.
Aside from the exits of Johnny Estrada and Geoff Jenkins, the lineup looks fairly similar to the ‘07 version, but the bullpen underwent a massive restructuring. No doubt Shea Stadium will warmly welcome former Met Guillermo Mota if he makes an appearance this weekend.
To get a Milwaukee fan’s perspective of the Brewers this year, I posed a few questions to Jeff Sackmann of BrewCrewBall.
1. The Brewers spent most of their offseason overhauling the bullpen. How do you think they did?
I think they did a great job. Eric Gagne has been iffy at best so far, but hey, it’s a one-year deal. David Riske and Salomon Torres have looked to be worth the money, and Brian Shouse is a known quantity as a solid situational lefty. The biggest question mark appears to be Derrick Turnbow. I think just about every Brewers fan wants Turnbow to succeed again, but dude, he’s wearing us out.
2. Speaking of the ‘pen, I can’t have a Q&A without asking your opinion of Guillermo Mota, who wore out his welcome in New York. Do you see him as being a valuable contributor to the ‘08 Brewers?
We’ll see. I was skeptical back when the trade happened, because we were swapping guys who probably would’ve been released or salary-dumped. It seemed like a particularly bad deal to me when we lost Wise as basically a follow-up to that deal. (I like Wise, possibly a little irrationally.) Mota looked outstanding in his first outing this year, not so great in his last one. It looks like Ned Yost is giving him the opportunity to step up and become the main set-up guy, but at the same time, we don’t need him to be anything more than the #4 guy in the pen.
3. What do you think is the key to the Brew Crew taking the NL Central in 2008? What team in the division do you see as being the toughest for Milwaukee to outperform?
The Cubs are the threat, especially as long as Fukudome plays like the MVP. Call me an optimist, but the key is simply not imploding. This is a deep team, and we don’t need 32 starts from Ben Sheets or a miraculous rookie year from Manny Parra to make it happen. If Gagne falters, there’s Riske. We’ve got at least six decent starters. Of course, an injury to Fielder or Braun would be a disaster, but short of that sort of thing, I think it’s the Brewers’ division for the taking.
4. Manny Parra was impressive in his abbreviated debut in ‘07. Tell us about his repertoire and skillset.
He’s a strikeout pitcher with some occasional control problems. The big issue this year is his fragility. He spent a lot of time on the DL working his way up the ladder, and has never thrown more than about 140 innings in a season. It remains to be seen whether the Brewers will try to keep his IP total down this year, or if they figure he’s 25 and finally healthy, so he can cope. One interesting thing to watch tonight is that he is, at least somewhat, pitching for his job. Yovani Gallardo will be back soon, and either Parra, Villanueva, or Bush will be headed to the bullpen or the minors.
5. Who will be the biggest surprise on the ‘08 Brewers?
It won’t surprise Brewers fans, but Carlos Villanueva is the guy who will make fans outside of Milwaukee pay more attention. If he makes it through the year in the rotation, he should give us 30 starts in the 4.00 – 4.50 range. He’s never going to win a Cy Young Award, but three years ago, he wasn’t even really showing up on prospect lists.
6. What do the Brewers have to do to take this weekend’s series from the Mets?
Different challenge every day. Tonight, we’ll see how the ‘08 Crew does against a pitcher they haven’t seen before in Figueroa. Anecdotally, first-timers seemed to be a challenge for the Brewers in recent years. It’ll also be interesting to see how Parra fares against a Major League offense. Saturday, the pitcher’s duel, will be up to Ben Sheets, who has been stunning this year. It would be nice to see Prince Fielder get hot, but it’s a balanced offense, so on any given night, somebody is probably going to come through.
Thanks again to Jeff Sackmann of BrewCrewBall. Jeff is one of the more astute writers in the baseball blogosphere, and I regularly enjoy reading his posts even though I’m not a Brewers fan. He also created Minor League Splits, co-created College Splits, and writes for The Hardball Times and Beyond the Boxscore, among others. Oh and if you’re contemplating graduate school, be sure to pick up his books The GMAT Math Bible and The GRE Math Bible.
More Phrom Phillies Phans
After the Home Opener loss yesterday, I phigured you haven’t heard enough about the Phillies … so herewith more pheedback from Phillies phans, this time phrom Jonathan oph The Good Phight.
1. With the Mets acquisition of Johan Santana, do you see them as the Phillies’ main competition for the NL East title, or are the Braves a more threatening club?
Mets are definitely a more threatening club. The injury to Pedro hurts, but Santana, Maine and Perez (who I thought could compete for a Cy Young 3 years ago) is solid. Hudson seems like the odds are going to catch up with him and Smoltz and Glavine are almost as old as Shea.
2. How do you feel about Brad Lidge in the closer’s role and Brett Myers in the starting rotation? Is this the best use of the team’s arms?
Lidge has the best strikeout rate in the history of the game for a pitcher that has thrown as many innings as he has. The mental component is a question mark, but really, is it more of a question mark than on Brett Myers. Myers had back to back season of ERAs under 4.00 (which is considered elite now) and is best used in the starting rotation.
3. I think Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz are going to have fun in CBP … how do you feel about these particular acquisitions?
Jenkins is a decent addition if he only hits righties, but at his price and his declining numbers, you have to hope he really has a good year this year. His forecast doesn’t look too bright. Feliz is the biggest mistake that Gillick made this offseason. His OBP is putrid and his power is probably seen its best days despite being in the CBP. Factor in that he is on the wrong side of 30 and I would have been happier with a Dobbs/Helms platoon. At least you didn’t have to pay even more for that. Considering that the Giants may have the worst offensive team in the league and didn’t re-sign him should be an indicator there.
4. What is the key to the Phillies’ success this season?
The key to the Phillies success is what happens in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rotation spots. I am not too high on any of those guys. Assuming for a moment you win every game with Myers and Hamels (hypothetical here), you only need to win one game with those three guys each time around the rotation. Hopefully that is the least we’ll get from them.
5. Who on the Phils will be biggest surprise in 2008?
Pat Burrell. Not that he is a surprise to me as I have been a big Burrell supporter over the years, but he often gets kicked around in the media here. He has been remarkably consistent over the last 3 years and I think we may see even more in his contract year.
6. Is Shane Victorino an everyday centerfielder?
Absolutely, but mostly because everyday centerfielders aren’t that great. Shane plays above average defense and hits about league average which is good to have at such a cheap price at a tough position.
7. Prediction: who is the Phillies’ team MVP in 2008?
Most likely Chase Utley (as he was last year). Rollins gets the glam, but Utley plays solid defense at second and has a much better OBP and SLG than Rollins. Of course, Hamels may be just as important, but I prefer to keep Cy Youngs and MVPs separate.
Thanks again to Jonathan. Be sure to check out The Good Phight for Phillies information.
Inside Look: Philadelphia Phillies
Coming off an abbreviated and disappointing two-game series in Atlanta, the Mets find their hands full with the Phillies, who come to Shea for the home opener.
To get a feel for what’s ticking inside the mind of a Phillies phan this early in the season, I called on Michael Berquist of A Citizen’s Blog.
1. Do the Mets scare you more or less compared to last year and why or why not?”
Unquestionably the Mets are a more talented and much more dangerous team than they were last season. The addition of Johan Santana and the return of Pedro Martinez gives the Mets some big guns to roll out in their rotation. However this analysis is contingent on Pedro and the rest of the aging Mets being healthy this season and that is a big if. Currently Moises Alou and Pedro are on the DL, so the gains that the Mets made in bringing Santana aboard might be erased otherwise.
I’m not of the opinion that the acquisition of Santana guarantees the Mets anything. The Mets rotation thrived on run support and defense last season, so Santana’s presence bolsters a unit that was in serious need of improvement. If Pedro and Santana are healthy and pitch at peek performance, then the Mets will be deadly. If Pedro is out, then the Mets need Santana to be great to beat the Phillies. Remember: even with Santana on the roster, the Twins posted a losing record in 2007. One man does not guarantee a pennant.
2. Did the Phillies do enough in the offseason to put an NL East champion back on the field in ‘08?
I believe that the Phillies are a much-improved team over the ‘07 version. In particular the team moved to strengthen their bullpen by acquiring Brad Lidge, which had the domino effect of strengthening the Phillies rotation by moving Brett Myers from closer to #2 in the rotation. Myers & Hamels presents the Phillies foes with a deeper, more dangerous rotation and Lidge gives the Phillies an effective closer, something they have really lacked since Billy Wagner left.
The ‘08 Phillies are every bit as strong as the Mets and this ought to be an exciting pennant race.
3. How do you like Brad Lidge as your closer and Brett Myers back in the rotation?
See above!
Yes, the addition of Lidge helps the Phillies by improving the bullpen and the rotation. If Lidge can recapture the magic of 2004 and 2005, the Phillies will be very strong because Brett Myers posted impressive numbers as a starter with the Phillies in 2005 and 2006. Teaming Myers with Hamels gives the Phillies a formidable 1-2 punch.
4. What’s your take on the way the Phillies have handled Ryan Howard’s contract negotiations the last two years? Do you think they should lock him down long-term — and is that possible?
The Phillies need to tread lightly in their negotiations with Howard. The team is really in dangerous territory, having so many young players (e.g., Cole Hamels) who might want raises if the Phillies move now to lock in Howard to a long-term deal. That said, the Phillies need Howard’s bat in the lineup because his ability to clobber 50-60 home runs gives the Phillies a major weapon in the heart of their order.
Generally I think the team has handled itself well with Howard, though you do have to wonder if they might have been better off conceding defeat on the arbitration hearing and building up some goodwill with Howard. However, the Phillies probably can’t lock Howard into a long-term deal because teams like the Mets and Yankees and Red Sox have the financial resources that the Phillies don’t and have attractive media markets that can make Howard into a star on the order of Derek Jeter or A-Rod. Ryan Howard knows he can demand $18-20 mil on the open market and that is probably more than the Phillies want to pay.
My guess is that Ryan Howard’s days on the team are numbered.
5. What one individual is most important to the Phillies’ success in 2008?
Chase Utley was on track to win the 2007 MVP award before a pitch hit his hand and broke it, sidelining him for a month. Utley will be the vital link for the Phillies in 2008, one of the strongest bats in the N.L. (and a serious contender to win the triple crown), a defensive standout at a vital position, a real team leader.
The Phillies will go as far as Utley can carry them.
6. What is the key to the Phillies taking the series at Shea this week?
Pat Burrell has traditionally eaten Mets pitching alive (.921 career OPS vs. the Mets and 41 home runs and 102 RBI in 134 games) and is off to a hot start this season (as I write this Burrell has hit his third home run of the season and has six extra-base hits). If Burrell can continue his hot start and help carry the Phillies offense with Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins off to slow starts, the Phillies will have the firepower to push through the Mets in a series where they won’t have to deal with Santana.
Interesting responses from Michael — particularly regarding Chase Utley. I would have guessed he’d say Cole Hamels. And we were under the impression that Jimmy Rollins carried the team (LOL).
Thanks again to Michael, and be sure to check out A Citizen’s Blog for more “inside info” on the Philadelphia Phillies.
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