Why Back to Back?
Recent news funneling from Flushing and Port St. Lucie is that both Billy Wagner and J.J. Putz are on the mend and could be back in big league uniforms within the next few weeks.
Wagner is ahead of Putz, as he is throwing in actual games. Minor league games in Florida, but games nonetheless. Meanwhile, Putz is tossing bullpen sessions in New York.
One thing noted on MetsBlog was that Wagner would follow a schedule of pitching in a few games a week, and eventually move to a program that includes back-to-back days. It won’t be until he’s proven that he can throw on consecutive days that the Mets will consider adding him to the active 25-man roster.
My question is, why?
First of all, putting relievers into ballgames on back-to-back days is a large part of the reason these former flamethrowers were injured in the first place. The idea that a guy isn’t “ready” until he throw consecutive days is the typical cement-head logic poisoning pitchers throughout pro ball today. Incredibly, the same people who buy into this nonsense also think a starting pitcher can only throw 100 pitches once every five days. Is it me, or is there something screwy here?
Secondly, why would the Mets NEED Billy Wagner to throw on back-to-back days? How about exercising some restraint, and learning a thing or two about PROPER bullpen management? The Mets carry a dozen arms at any given moment, yet Brian Stokes and Tim Redding can go more than a week without getting into a ballgame. And this is termed “management”?
Here’s an idea: bring both Putz and Wags back when they’re capable of throwing 25 pitches in a true “game” situation, experience no pain, and can come back and do the same thing 48 hours later. Then, you use one of them on one day, and the other on another day. Cap each at one full inning. If you’re really lucky, you have yourself a dominant and fresh 8th-inning setup guy every day — what other MLB team can claim that?
This strategy would not put a strain on the bullpen, because a) you’re having one guy instead of two or three get three big outs; and b) you won’t be using 7 relievers every day.
If Jerry Manuel was using those 11th and 12th guys on the pitching staff, maybe I’d look at things differently. But as long as Manuel has to “find innings” for some pitchers to keep them fresh, it shouldn’t be an issue to have two relievers who can’t go back to back.
No Rest for Pedro Feliciano
According to the data gathered in the Bullpen Blueprint, a total of 24 pitchers on pennant-contending teams pitched on zero rest (back to back days) 17 times or more last year.
The pitcher who threw on back-to-back days most often in 2008 was Pedro Feliciano — he did it 34 times.
The next-most appearances on zero rest were J.C. Romero (32 times), Dennys Reyes (28), Carlos Marmol (27), Aaron Heilman (26 times), Joe Smith (25), and Joe Beimel (25).
Through the first 67 games of 2009, Pedro Feliciano has pitched in 40 games, with no rest 17 times. Further, Feliciano has appeared in ballgames for the last six days. Days, not games.
Mets manager Jerry Manuel stated that as as long as Feliciano pitches to only one batter, he can pitch as many days in a row as he wants. Two things wrong with that statement. First, we have no idea what that theory is based on, nor what it means. Second, in the last six days, Feliciano has pitched to more than one batter four times. In fact, he threw to 2 batters in 6/16, 4 batters on 6/17, 2 batters on 6/18, and 4 batters last night. His total pitch count is 63 over the six-day period. I don’t know what that means because Feliciano has never thrown six days in a row before, and I’m having a hard time finding another pitcher who has accomplished the feat. That said, we can’t guess at the long-term effect of this frequency of use.
For more questions unanswered, download and read The Bullpen Blueprint (it’s free).
Burning the K-Rod at Both Ends
Francisco Rodriguez pitched two innings in last night’s loss, but Mets manager Jerry Manuel assured reporters after the game that his high-priced closer would be “ready to go” in the series finale tonight. After all, he’d thrown “less than 30 pitches”. Apparently, had Rodriguez thrown 30 or more, he’d have received a day off.
I’d love to have seen Manuel and Dan Warthen hunched over a calculator banging out that formula for bullpen success.
For those keeping score, K-Rod threw 16 pitches in a meaningless 7-0 victory on Sunday night vs. the Nationals, had a day off, threw 20 pitches on Tuesday, and 21 pitches last night, for a total of 57 pitches over four days. We can’t predict K-Rod’s pitch count if he goes tonight, but we know he’s averaging about 16 pitches per inning. Assuming he gets into the game and throws that many, Frankie will have expended 57 pitches in three straight days, and 73 over five days. We know he doesn’t “let up” on any pitch, so add in the high-stress factor of those tosses.
If indeed K-Rod pitches tonight, it would be the third time this season he threw three days in a row (not games, Jerry, days). Technically, it would be the fifth time, because he threw FOUR days in a row twice this year (May 4-7 & May 12-15 were the previous runs).
But K-Rod can handle it, right? Like fellow countryman Johan Santana, he’s a man, right?
Not sure. During last year’s record-breaking season, K-Rod threw in back-to-back-to-back days five times. April 13-15 (49 pitches); April 23-25 (32 pitches); June 2-4 (33 pitches); June 21-23 (41 pitches); August 28-30 (33 pitches). . He never threw for four days in a row in 2008, but he did do it once in 2007 — which was the only time that year he threw in as many as three consecutive days. That run was bookended by three days of rest prior, and four days’ rest afterward.
Which brings up a key note: whenever Angels manager Mike Scioscia rode K-Rod especially hard, he followed that up with 3-4 days’ rest. Jerry Manuel has thus far followed that pattern, as K-Rod was rested four days after each of his two four-game-straight marathons.
But, on Friday the Mets begin a three-game series with the Yankees. Do you think K-Rod is going to be held out all weekend?
The forecast calls for rain this afternoon, and thunderstorms through the evening, so the point may be moot. Still, the handling of Rodriguez is something that should be monitored, if we expect him to be at full strength later in the season.
For a comparison of how the top teams use their bullpens, Download The Bullpen Blueprint (it’s free!).
Is the Bullpen Overused?
A recent article on the SNY website suggests that the Mets could already be burning out their bullpen.
A novel thought … and something I suggested on several occasions last year.
Is it possible that the Mets’ bullpen woes last year were not solely due to the personnel, as every pundit other than yours truly assumed? Is it, in fact, possible, that some of the responsibility could be placed on the shoulders of Jerry Manuel?
For those interested, the first edition of Bullpen Blueprint is now available for download. It may help you understand why the Mets came up short for two consecutive seasons. Download it here (it’s free!).
The Darren O’Day Era is Probably Over
O'Day and Morrissey, courtesy of Angels blog Halos Heaven
Rotoworld is reporting that the Mets have designated reliever Darren O’Day for assignment. O’Day – a Rule 5 pick – will be placed on Rule 5 waivers. If he clears waivers, he will be offered back to the Angels.
O’Day’s departure will make room for Nelson Figueroa, who will start in place of Mike Pelfrey in Sunday’s series finale against Milwaukee.
I’m surprised Omar Minaya is so quick to scrap a piece of the bullpen that has been dominant so far this season. In four games with the Mets, O’Day had not allowed an earned run.
Given Pelfrey’s youth and his workload last season, I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t put him on the DL, retroactive to his last start. He’d only end up missing one extra start and the bullpen could remain intact.
Then again, maybe the Mets weren’t high on O’Day in the first place and/or maybe they have a late inning reliever in mind to replace him once Pelfrey gets back.
Aaron Heilman: Most Abused Pitcher in Baseball?
Was Aaron Heilman the most abused pitcher in baseball in 2008? Look at the numbers and judge for yourself. His 1486 pitches thrown were tied for the second-most in MLB among “pure” relievers — pitchers who did not make any starts. (Carlos Marmol led all relievers in pitches with 1505 – but we’ll get to him).
Tampa Bay’s J.P. Howell also threw exactly 1486 relief pitches in 2008 — yet he pitched consistently well throughout the year, and enjoyed a strong September, while Heilman finished the season in the doghouse, appearing in only 7 games. What was the difference?
First of all, Howell never appeared in more than 11 games in any one month — Rays manager Joe Maddon used Howell (and all his relievers) judiciously. Howell appeared in 8 games in April, 11 games in May, June, July, and September, and 12 games in August. Interestingly, his pitch counts were fairly high in the first two months of the season — 275 in April, 294 in May, and 280 in June — but Maddon tapered down his pitches in July (185) and August (210), ensuring he’d be strong enough in September (235 pitches).
Compare that to the “management” of Heilman:
Howell vs. Heilman
| Pitcher | AprG/P | MayG/P | JunG/P | JulG/P | AugG/P | SepG/P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howell | 8/275 | 11/294 | 11/280 | 11/185 | 12/217 | 11/235 |
| Heilman | 16/308 | 10/247 | 14/238 | 16/299 | 15/293 | 7/101 |
Heilman was essentially pushed to the upper limits in April — you can blame Randolph for that — and he may never have recovered. To Randolph’s credit, he did back off on using Heilman in May and was limiting his pitches in June. However, once Manuel took over, it was right back to abuse, appearing 16 times in July and 15 times in August.
Also of note in the Howell — Heilman comparison is days’ rest. Howell was used on zero days rest 13 times all season; Heilman, twice as many (26). Howell was most frequently used on one days’ rest (19 times), followed by two days’ rest (16) and three days’ (9). In contrast, Heilman appeared with one days’ rest 21 times, on two days 18 times, and on three days’ 11 times. It should also be noted that Heilman once pitched in both ends of a doubleheader.
Appearances on Days’ Rest: JP Howell vs. Aaron Heilman
Days Rest
| Pitcher | 0 days | 1 day | 2 days | 3 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howell | 13 | 19 | 16 | 9 |
| Heilman | 26* | 21 | 18 | 11 |
* including two ends of one DH
Finally, Aaron Heilman threw 26 or more pitches in an outing 18 times, including two instances in which he threw 51 pitches or more. Howell threw 26+ in a game 21 times, but never more than 50, and clearly was given more rest.
Of particular consideration is the fact that Aaron Heilman was slated to be a setup man or 7th inning middle reliever. As a result, he was conditioned for this role from the beginning of spring training. As such, we can presume that preseason preparation program was optimized for him to pitch one inning at a time, 2-3 times per week. The sum total of his acutal workload in the season, however, was more comparable to that of a long reliever / spot starter. In fact, the only relievers in 2008 who threw more pitches than Heilman, Howell, and Marmol were those who made at least a few starts, and who were used almost exclusively in long relief roles: Chan Ho Park, Hong Chih Kuo, Boof Bonser, and Carlos Villanueva.
But then what about Marmol, who threw 19 more pitches than Heilman and had perhaps the best season of any setup man / middle reliever in baseball?
Let’s look at Lou Piniella’s use of Marmol (which could also be termed “abuse”):
Howell - Heilman - Marmol
| Pitcher | AprG/P | MayG/P | JunG/P | JulG/P | AugG/P | SepG/P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howell | 8/275 | 11/294 | 11/280 | 11/185 | 12/217 | 11/235 |
| Heilman | 16/308 | 10/247 | 14/238 | 16/299 | 15/293 | 7/101 |
| Marmol | 14/277 | 15/293 | 13/231 | 12/235 | 16/244 | 12/225 |
While it could be argued that Marmol was abused more than Heilman, it should be noted that Marmol’s highest pitch count in any one month was 293, and second-highest was 277. Heilman had highs of 308, 299, and 293 – again, these are numbers more comparable to long relievers. Still, it would seem that Marmol was at the very least the second-most abused pitcher in MLB next to Heilman, based on his frequency of use.
Marmol’s use in regard to days’ rest is similarly disturbing:
Days Rest - Howell/Heilman/Marmol
| Pitcher | 0 days | 1 day | 2 days | 3 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howell | 13 | 19 | 16 | 9 |
| Heilman | 26* | 21 | 18 | 11 |
| Marmol | 27 | 30 | 11 | 9 |
Unlike Heilman, however, Marmol was never used in both ends of a doubleheader. He threw more than 26 pitches in an outing 17 times (compared to Heilman’s 16), but never more than 51 (Heilman did it twice).
Also of concern is the fact that both Marmol and Heilman rely heavily on a mid-90s fastball; in contrast, Howell is a “soft tosser” who barely tops out at 90 MPH. Generally speaking, throwing at a higher velocity takes more toll on a pitcher’s body.
It has to be understood that these numbers reflect the most abused pitchers in all of MLB — the vast majority of middle relievers are used 10-12 times per month, 160-220 pitches per month. Total pitches for the year for a typical middle reliever is anywhere from 650-1100.
This post is an excerpt from an upcoming report in progress titled “Bullpen Blueprint”, which examines and compares the bullpens of successful MLB teams in 2008. The full report will be available for PDF download at MetsToday.com when it is complete.
Bullpen Blueprint – Teasers Coming
Last week I began researching an article about the management (and mismanagement) of big league bullpens in 2008. However, what began as an article turned into a treatise — the document is currently over 20 pages long (and growing) and certainly too hefty for a blog post. Eventually, it will be available as a PDF download.
Basically, what I’ve done is researched each playoff team’s bullpen management, as far as the frequency of use, pitch counts, and rest time, to determine whether there is a pattern among successful teams. Actual performance — that is, ERAs, blown saves, etc. — were not a focus of the study, though included for comparison. This may seem illogical, but the point of my research was to find out what successful teams do in their attempt to keep their bullpens fresh and performing at optimum levels from games one through 162.
Since we already know that teams strictly manage their starting pitchers — stopping them when they reach specific pitch counts, and ensuring they regularly receive at least four days’ rest between starts — I was curious to find out if teams also exerted similar limitations for their bullpen arms. What I’m finding out is that they do — or at least, the numbers suggest they do. This may seem obvious to most baseball fans, but as Mets fans, we certainly haven’t seen any patterns or “rules” in regard to handling relievers in the last 3-4 years.
MetsToday readers know I’m not much for grinding out and quoting statistics, and this report won’t be of interest to the number-crunching sabermetricians. But I’m hoping it sheds light on the correct and safe ways to manage championship bullpens — or at least begins the conversation. Because I don’t believe there’s any “mystery” or “luck” dictating middle relief performance from one year to the next, and I do think that there IS a right and wrong way to handle a bullpen over the course of a season. What I’m theorizing is that most studies are flawed in that they have focused on the raw performance numbers (ERA, WHIP, etc.) of relievers rather than taking a step back and seeing whether a reliever (or bullpen) has been properly prepared to compete.
This afternoon I’ll publish a “teaser” or excerpt titled, “Aaron Heilman: Most Abused Pitcher in Baseball?”. I’ll continue to post excerpts over the next two weeks, if you’re interested to read this doctrine as it develops. Your comments are more than welcome.
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