Mets Meaningful Number: 19
With the Mets in a tailspin and the postseason slipping out of reach, let’s take a look at what it will take for the team to play “meaningful games in September.”
By no means is this the definitive way to figure out the “meaningful” number. Consider it a jumping off point for the more statistically-inclined among us to calculate what it will take to achieve Fred Wilpon’s version of success.
For the purposes of this post, we’ll assume that the Mets would need to be within five games of the wildcard on September 1, in order for their games to still be meaningful in the eyes of ownership.
Step 1 – Take the number of games remaining before September 1 and multiply by the winning percentage of the current wildcard leader.
33 x .560 = 18.48
Step 2 – Take the number of games out of the wildcard lead and subtract 5.
5 – 5 = 0
Step 3 – Add the results of Step 1 and 2
18.48 + 0 = 18.48
Step 4 – Take the result from Step 3 and round up
18.48 = 19
So assuming the wildcard leader will play at a .560 clip between now and September, the Mets will have to go 19-14 during that time to remain within five games of the wildcard lead.
The Mets meaningful number currently stands at 19.
Have a better way to calculate the Meaningful Number? Share it in the comments section.
So I’d call the “Meaningful Number” 22, not 19.
I see what you’re saying, but we are talking about “meaningful” and not “very close.” I guess we could open this up to a discussion on what exactly Fred Wilpon means by “meaningful.”
Maybe the Meaningful Number can be readjusted on September 15 to calculate the number of games it will take the Mets to get within 2 games of the lead? Lots to ponder here. Great comment!
So yeah, if they gain 3 games on the leader over the course of playing 33, I might believe they can gain the last 2 over the course of playing the last 30.
August needs to be for gaining ground, not just keeping pace. Otherwise the season is hopeless.
Are you familiar with Fred Wilpon’s quote on the subject? Here’s a link to the original quote (scroll down to find it): http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/21/sports/baseball-piazza-works-at-first-base-wows-at-plate.html
I think 5 games back on September 1 would suffice.
Keep in mind, the Mets did lose a 7 game lead with 17 to play back in 2007.
The Mets’ FO is not interested in the smartest and most diehard fans — they are focused on the lowest common denominator / mass appeal / casual fan. That said I agree with Loge in that being 5 games out on September 1 would probably be close enough for the masses to shell out dough to buy tickets to games.
Once that happens, even the dumbest and most optimistic of fans will understand the games are meaningless.
Or maybe we can just take solace in the fact the Mets reached September in “meaningful games” territory.
So much to ponder….
1) It will take at least 88 games to win the Wild Card.
I think this is eminently reasonable, as it means that at least one of the one of the top 4 Wild Card teams play .550 or better ball (and in the case of the Giants, .500 ball).
2) The Mets are probably good for, at best, a 19-11 September.
That’s a .633 winning percentage, for what it’s worth; I can buy 20-10 also, but given that I’m already taking the lower bound on the 88, I’m more comfortable here with the 19.
3) To get there, the Mets need to go no worse than 19-14.
I’m done with this year. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS
Maybe the Mets should be quarantined if they are within reach of the playoffs in Sept. No newspapres, no tv sports, no scores or standings on the scoreboard. Any fans disclosing any stress-inducing information(scores, standings, news about baseball period ) to the team will be barred from Citi Field for the rest of the season and the first half of next season. In fact, any fan communicating with the team at all will be banned as aforementioned.