Mets Meaningful Number: 19
With the Mets in a tailspin and the postseason slipping out of reach, let’s take a look at what it will take for the team to play “meaningful games in September.”
By no means is this the definitive way to figure out the “meaningful” number. Consider it a jumping off point for the more statistically-inclined among us to calculate what it will take to achieve Fred Wilpon’s version of success.
For the purposes of this post, we’ll assume that the Mets would need to be within five games of the wildcard on September 1, in order for their games to still be meaningful in the eyes of ownership.
Step 1 – Take the number of games remaining before September 1 and multiply by the winning percentage of the current wildcard leader.
33 x .560 = 18.48
Step 2 – Take the number of games out of the wildcard lead and subtract 5.
5 – 5 = 0
Step 3 – Add the results of Step 1 and 2
18.48 + 0 = 18.48
Step 4 – Take the result from Step 3 and round up
18.48 = 19
So assuming the wildcard leader will play at a .560 clip between now and September, the Mets will have to go 19-14 during that time to remain within five games of the wildcard lead.
The Mets meaningful number currently stands at 19.
Have a better way to calculate the Meaningful Number? Share it in the comments section.