Mets Game 24: Loss to Phillies

Posted on May 1, 2010 by Joe Janish

Phillies 10 Mets 0

Well, you can’t win ’em all.

After the Mets won in a laugher on Friday night, the Phillies returned the favor, pounding out 10 runs on 13 hits as Roy “Doc” Halladay surgically removed the New York offense.

Game Notes

Roy Halladay pitched a complete-game, 3-hit shutout, expending 118 pitches — including 88 strikes. That type of pitch count would get John Maine through 5 1/3 innings, I reckon.

Mike Pelfrey, on the other hand, was less than stellar, allowing 8 hits, a walk, and 6 runs in 4 innings, throwing 82 pitches. His ERA more than tripled in the process. Big Pelf had a hard time hitting spots, and when he had to give in, his fastball was a little too high and got too much of the plate. Home plate umpire Ron Kulpa was calling a very low strike zone, but Pelfrey couldn’t take advantage the way Halladay did.

That low zone irked several of the Mets hitters, and David Wright nearly got tossed for arguing with Kulpa in the top of the sixth. From the angle provided by the centerfield camera, several pitches did seem below the knees, but Halladay’s sinker was running down hard so it’s difficult to say whether they were balls as they passed the plate, or merely looked like balls by the time the catcher caught them.

Ike Davis drew the lone walk that Halladay allowed, and the three hits were struck by Wright, Jason Bay, and Henry Blanco. Blanco and Wright hit doubles, while Bay hit a single. Jose Reyes saw more pitches than any other Met with 24.

Although Blanco hit a double, seeing both he and Alex Cora in the lineup against the best pitcher in baseball didn’t exactly boost my hopes when the game began.

Blanco, by the way, is 5-for-11 lifetime against Sunday night starter Jamie Moyer.

Next Mets Game

The rubber match takes place on Sunday night at 8 PM and will be broadcast by ESPN. Johan Santana faces Jamie Moyer. Be sure to visit the ESPN Baseball Tonight Live Chat so you can read my witty comments during the game.

Posted in Mets 2010 Games | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Sean Green and Other Injury Updates

Posted on May 1, 2010 by Joe Janish

According to Mets.com, Sean Green’s “strained intercostal muscle” is actually a stress fracture of his rib. Like most Mets fans, I’m in no rush to see Green back on the 25-man roster. But why would it take an entire month before someone ordered an X-ray? Things that make you go hmmmm.

Speaking of that routine test procedure, X-rays on Jeff Francoeur’s elbow were negative. Francoeur was hit in the forearm by a 95-MPH fastball during last night’s game. The injury is labeled as a contusion. Jerry Manuel suggested that he would give Francoeur the day off today.

There is no update on Carlos Beltran. However, there was a report that he was fitted with a knee brace “in the hopes of accelerating his rehabilitation, a team official confirmed…”

That sounds sketchy to me, but we’ll get more into that in a future post.

Similarly, there is no word on Kelvim Escobar. Did you expect any?

Speaking of no word, the Mets are mum on Ryota Igarashi at the moment.

Daniel Murphy, on the other hand, is back on the field, playing in “extended spring training” games. I get the feeling, though, that most Mets fans — and Frank Catalanotto — would prefer he take his time getting back.

Finally, no progress has been made on Oliver Perez’s brain, and MLB refuses to allow the Mets to place him on the DL for “detachment and disconnection between mind and body”. Apparently if an injury doesn’t come up on an X-ray, MRI, or psychiatrist’s report, it doesn’t apply. Oh well.

Posted in Mets 2010 Games | 4 Comments

Warthen and Ojeda See the Same Things About Niese

Posted on May 1, 2010 by Joe Janish

From yours truly on MetsToday, in the Game 13 post:

It appears as though his arm slot has dropped from straight overhand to more three-quarter, which can be a better angle for getting movement, but takes bite away from his best pitch, the curveball. That angle also was causing him to get “under” the ball, meaning, he was releasing the ball with his fingers at the side of the ball or almost underneath — which causes the ball to move more sideways and up …

The SNY crew kept referring to one of Niese’s pitches as a “cutter”, and maybe that’s how Niese identifies it, but it is a slider. A “cutter” is a “cut fastball”, so called because it is thrown with a fastball arm action but with a grip that is shifted slightly off-center from across the four seams. The result is a fastball that “cuts” slightly — just a few inches at most. However, what Niese is doing is modifying the grip AND turning his wrist slightly counterclockwise — which is a slider. Why does it matter? Because with a slider, the fingers slide to the side of the ball and the thumb turns up toward the sky, which puts pressure on the elbow. Niese already puts a lot of pressure on his elbow with the overhand curve, so there is concern that an injury will be sustained in that area at some point. But staying in the here and now, that slider / wannabe cutter is often flat and doesn’t have much downward movement, which means it will eventually get hit hard.

… Though, Niese did throw at least 6 or 7 sliders with sharp downward bite. He may want to focus on thinking about that pitch as a slider, and calling it a slider, because when it’s not, it’s dangerous.

From Bobby Ojeda during “In the O-Zone” in last night’s postgame on SNY:

Those were pitches he was getting away from (the inside fastball and curveball). He was getting a little lazy with that cutter, which was no longer a cutter but becoming more of a big loopy slider. The cutter was back today but used sparingly … what you saw they weren’t leaning out over, looking for that soft cutter and they weren’t able to make good contact, and then Uncle Charley showed up — and I love seeing it. This kid got one of the best curveballs, probably in the National League, it’s nice to see him use it, he used it for strikes and he used it for chase pitches as well …

Chris Carlin chimes in:

You said on Loudmouths earlier tonight that the cutter had become somewhat more of a slider. Did he pitch in a more mature fashion, knowing that they would be looking for that cutter more?

Ojeda:

Absolutely. I think there was a lot of discussion with Dan Warthen on ‘you’re getting a little sloppy with that cutter’ it IS a slider — Dan sees it, I see it … I’d be willing to bet that Barajas caught his bullpen and said ‘look, we’ve gotta get a little more tight, we’ve gotta get tighter with that … that cutter comes from from across the plate, and it’s very easy — it looks big to a hitter …

Also, during the postgame interview with Jerry Manuel, Manuel referred to Niese’s repertoire as including a “ball moving like a slider” and a “slow curveball”.

I provide this just in case there was any question regarding the reliability of the pitching analysis / information you get here on MetsToday.

Posted in Opinion and Analysis, Pitching Mechanics | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Mets Game 23: Win Over Phillies

Posted on April 30, 2010 by Joe Janish

Mets 9 Phillies 1

Keep on rollin’ … Mets remain in phirst place as they parade past the Phillies.

Game Notes

Jon Niese couldn’t have pitched any better in a tough park against a tough lineup. Niese spun 7 (count ’em, 7!) innings, allowing only one run on four hits and a walk, striking out 7. His delivery is starting to look the same throughout his pitches, making it difficult for opposing batters to pick up what’s coming. In the past, the speed of his motion and his arm and body angle varied depending on the pitch, which would tip off hitters who could quickly decipher the subtle differences. Further, Niese had better command than he’s shown before — maybe another result of the consistent delivery / release point. A great night overall for young Jon Niese.

Rod Barajas hit many high, high fly balls over the fence — including two in fair territory. His two taters and two-bagger produced 3 RBI and 3 runs scored.

Jeff Francoeur played like he was back in high school, on the gridiron — banging into things, getting hit, throwing on the run. He also mashed a solo homer, stole his first base of the year, and played a strong game overall but left early due to a bruised elbow that resulted from a 95-MPH fastball from Danys Baez.

Phillies pitchers were pounding the ball inside to the Mets batters, and Jennry Mejia retaliated with a cut fastball to Chase Utley’s calf. I’d prefer the Mets pitchers throw inside as a routine rather than only when they feel the need to “retaliate”.

Angel Pagan went 3-for-5 with a triple, double, 2 RBI, and a run scored. If he hits like that I don’t care where Jerry Manuel puts him in the lineup.

David Wright went deep, then disappeared. No worries, his offense wasn’t needed beyond that.

Raul Ibanez hit a long drive for an out in the second and a hard single in the ninth. I get the feeling he’s emerging from his slump; I hope I’m wrong.

The Mets did not hit a single until the seventh inning — it took 30 batters and 7 runs scored before Jose Reyes struck an RBI single to drive in Angel Pagan.

Next Mets Game

Who’da thunk Mike Pelfrey would be part of a “marquee matchup”? Big Pelf goes against Roy Halladay at 3:10 PM on Saturday afternoon in Philadelphia. And yes, unfortunately, that bizarre time slot means the game will be on FOX.

Posted in Mets 2010 Games | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Mets vs. Phillies – Stay with Us, Lady Luck

Posted on April 30, 2010 by Joe Janish

First off, let’s try not to look at this series as something more than it is. We can bask in the glory of first place, and if the Mets take at least two games this weekend, we can continue to gloat and enjoy all that goes with being the fan of a first-place team.

But, this series is unlikely to define the season, or the team, that we will be watching through the next 140 or so ballgames.

The good news is, the Mets have the momentum of a sherman tank plowing down Mt. Everest. Lady Luck has touched the Mets over the past week and a half, delivering teams that were at less than their best for one reason or another. That’s not to take anything away from the Mets — everyone needs a little luck now and then, but it’s what you DO with that luck that matters. And the Mets have taken full advantage of a downtrodden Cubs club, the bumbling Braves, and the debilitated Dodgers. Similarly, the Phillies are in a funk, suffering from the following: Continue reading →

Posted in Series Previews | Tagged | 6 Comments

Another Phillie Fan Perspective

Posted on April 30, 2010 by Joe Janish

Yesterday’s Q&A with Bill Baer brought so much banter that I thought it would be nice to bring in another Phillies fan. The following is a guest column written by a longtime rival (we are friends AFTER the baseball season ends) who used to regularly write a sports column for an esteemed college newspaper about a hundred years ago (OK, maybe more like 15 or 20, but it was before Al Gore invented the internet and global warming, so it feels like a hundred years ago). In any case, the following is written by Tom Maguire, aka “The Earl of Sports”, and I hope you enjoy his phanatical perspective. – Joe

Preface

These are the musings of a former sports columnist (yes it was college, but it was before blogging and my nom-de-plume was “The Earl of Sports”) who is a die-hard Phillies fan. Continue reading →

Posted in Opinion and Analysis | Tagged , | 10 Comments

Inside Look: Phillies

Posted on April 29, 2010 by Joe Janish

The Mets are in first place, and the first-place Mets will be facing the second-place Phillies for a 3-game weekend series for the right to first place.

Yes, I am going to harp on the “first place” thing as much as possible, since we don’t know how long it will last. May as well take advantage while we can.

Since we have all day today and most of tomorrow to bask in the glow of Mets’ first-place status, I thought you might enjoy reading some of the thoughts of fellow SweetSpot Blogger Bill Baer, whose blog Crashburn Alley focuses on the second-place Phillies.

(You can also see a similar Q&A over at Bill’s blog, where I answer his questions about the Mets.)

To reiterate, the second-place Phillies. Boy that feels good!

Anyway, here is our Q&A … and here’s to hoping the first-place Mets can remain in first place!

1. The Phillies were looking like world-beaters before the season began and through the first two weeks. However, they are 4-6 over their last 10 games. What’s going on?

It’s a little worrisome, but I would attribute part of the misfortune on injuries (Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero, and Joe Blanton started the season on the DL; Jimmy Rollins and J.A. Happ soon joined them) and bad luck. Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson, and David Herndon have been the unluckiest so far.

I think the starting rotation (when it includes Joe Blanton) is better than people think.

Doesn’t help that the Phillies have played 15 of their first 21 games on the road, either.

2. Jimmy Rollins made a preseason goal of 50 stolen bases. He stole 2 before going on the DL. Is his goal realistic, considering both Rollins’ skills and the Phillies’ overall offensive style / strategy?

It wasn’t realistic then and it certainly isn’t realistic now that he has missed two weeks. The most realistic goal of his is 200 hits since he gets so many at-bats at the top of a high-octane offense.

3. Ryan Madson is the closer while Brad Lidge is on the mend. Are you confident in Madson in the ninth? Do you have more confidence in Madson, or Lidge? How about the next option, Danys Baez?

If Lidge was completely healthy and he had the same velocity on his fastball and bite on his slider that he had in 2008, I may be slightly more confident in him than Madson. However, Lidge has just been squeaking above the 90’s while rehabbing and I really question his ability to handle high-leverage innings. I have much, much more confidence in Ryan Madson than anybody else in the bullpen. It’s a shame because many Phillies fans have labeled Madson unfit to close as a result of their armchair psychoanalysis.

4. Much was made about Ryan Howard getting tutored by Barry Bonds over the winter. Are you seeing any results from that?

Not really. As you know, Barry Bonds was a maven of plate discipline. Howard hasn’t brought that into the 2010 season as he is drawing walks at more than half the rate he had over the course of his career. So far, he has increased the rate at which he swings at pitches outside of the strike zone and he has decreased the rate of swings at pitches inside the strike zone. It is nice that he cut his strikeout rate by ten percent, but to be quite honest, I would prefer to take the strikeouts with his prodigious power, something we have barely seen this season.

5. We know all about Roy Halladay. But after him, the Philly starting rotation has been questionable. Even JA Happ, who hasn’t given up an earned run, has walked 8 in 10 IP. Is it simply a slow start by everyone, or is there valid concern that the current personnel will not be sufficient to pitch the Phillies into the postseason?

As mentioned above, Hamels has been unlucky in his four starts so far. Pitchers can’t control the rate at which balls put in play turn into hits (BABIP), so it tends to hover around .300 give or take a few thousandths of a point. Hamels last year sat at .325; it is .357 so far in 2010. Additionally, pitchers cannot control the rate at which fly balls land beyond outfield fences, so it tends to hover around 10% give or take a couple percentage points. Hamels so far has a HR/FB% of 20.6%. Hamels will come around.

Stats people are not expecting J.A. Happ to come anywhere close to the success he had last season. Despite the 0.00 ERA, he had pitched poorly in his two starts before landing on the DL. As you mentioned, he walked eight batters in ten innings and he was also striking out fewer than four and a half per nine innings. Happ doesn’t induce too many ground balls, so it is not good that hitters have been making contact as often as they have been.

Jamie Moyer is hit or miss but there worse ways to round out the back of a starting rotation. Speaking of which, I am counting the days until Kyle Kendrick returns to AAA Lehigh Valley.

6. Further to the previous question, what is wrong with Cole Hamels, and is he fixable?

Very fixable. He’s been unlucky. I know that answer doesn’t sit will with a lot of people, but them’s the facts. Phillies fans need to just ride it out — he’ll improve. Just don’t expect him to finish the season with Tim Lincecum-esque numbers. His true talent level is somewhere around a 3.50-3.75 ERA.

7. In 2009, the Phillies benefitted greatly by a scorching hot start by Raul Ibanez. This year, though, the story is quite the opposite. Have opposing pitchers “figured him out”, is he streaky by nature, or simply a slow starter?

Ibanez is streaky by nature, but I think part of the slow part is aging as well. From what I’ve seen, his bat looks slower and he’s having trouble catching up to fastballs. Since he started playing regularly in 2002, Ibanez has finished all but one season with above-average numbers against the fastball according to FanGraphs’ pitch type linear weights. Through April, Ibanez has been two runs below average per 100 fastballs.

I’m hoping that Ibanez gets on one of his patented hot streaks and he becomes a palatable option to move at the trading deadline. However, I doubt that many teams would be willing and able to take on the remainder of his contract (about $6 million by the 2010 trading deadline and $11.5 million next year). Trading Ibanez and clearing his contract may give the Phillies the ability to re-sign Jayson Werth after the season, in which case prospect Domonic Brown would take over in left field.

8. For the first time in a year, the Phillies are chasing the Mets. Do you think that will be the case for most of the season? Why or why not?

No, I don’t. The Mets just don’t have a good lineup or a good starting rotation (outside of Johan Santana) or a good bullpen. It sounds like I’m being a biased, hateful Philly fan, but it’s true.

The Mets had a $126.5 million payroll to open the season, and their most recent batting order was: Pagan, Cora, Reyes, Bay, Wright, Davis, Francoeur, and Barajas. That’s just not a good lineup. Pagan and Cora are back-ups on most other teams; Davis would be unknown if he were in a less-prominent team’s farm system, Francoeur is overrated, and — okay — I irrationally dislike Barajas because he didn’t block the plate during a game in Florida when he was with the Phillies. Hey, at least I’m honest.

Additionally, Mike Pelfrey has been extremely lucky. His BABIP is only .249 and he’s yet to allow a home run. His 0.69 ERA is not backed up by ERA postdictors like xFIP (4.31) and SIERA (4.38). That’s not to say that a 4.38 ERA level of production is not acceptable, it’s just that Pelfrey’s recent success is completely and utterly unsustainable.

Jonathon Niese has pitched over his head as well. His 4.40 SIERA is more realistic than his 3.68 ERA. Niese needs to harness his control before he can be considered an above-average pitcher.

Finally, while the ERA’s have mostly been good with the Mets’ relievers, one cannot expect them to maintain that level of success over the course of a 162-game season. Takahashi has really been the only true bright spot in the bullpen — he has pitched exceptionally well. Fernando Nieve and Jenrry Mejia have not pitched well while K-Rod and Pedro Feliciano have been average at best and that may be too lenient given their bad walk rates.

Thanks again to Bill Baer for his insight. You can read more of his commentary and stat-driven analysis regarding the Phillies at Crashburn Alley. I’m sure you would like to comment on some of his answers, so please do so below.

Posted in Inside Looks | Tagged , | 44 Comments

Mets Game 22: Win Over Dodgers

Posted on April 28, 2010 by Joe Janish

Mets 7 Dodgers 3

This is getting a little silly. A 9-1 homestand? Seriously? Somebody pinch me, I must be dreaming.

Game Notes

John Maine hurled 6 innings, allowing 4 hits, 3 walks, and 2 earned runs, striking out 9. I know he did this because I saw it with my own eyes, and I reviewed the boxscore, but I have no explanation as to how he did it. His command was so-so — though, better than in his past starts — and his velocity was around 87-89. He did have good downward and sideways movement on the majority of his fastballs, but he didn’t do a fantastic job of changing speeds, nor was his breaking stuff anything better than mediocre. Yet, he was getting solid MLB hitters such as James Loney, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier to swing and miss. Color me befuddled. Maybe it was magic, or voo-doo, or a deal with the devil — whatever it was, it defied logic. And I’ll take it.

The Mets offense jumped all over Dodger pitcher John Ely, who was making his first MLB start, for 5 earned runs in 6 innings. They scored another two against Ronald Belisario, who was in only his fourth appearance of the season after coming off the suspended list and missing all of spring training due to visa problems.

Next Mets Game

The first-place Mets take a well-deserved day off on Thursday before beginnng a three-game series against the Phillies in Philadelphia on Friday night. Game time is 7:05 PM and the scheduled pitchers are Jon Niese and Kyle Kendrick.

Posted in Mets 2010 Games | Tagged , , | 5 Comments