Mets Games 148, 149, 150 vs. Nationals
Nationals 3 Mets 0
Nationals 10 Mets 3
Mets 4 Nationals 3
The Nationals mathematically eliminate the Mets from winning the NL East. At least the Mets didn’t get swept.
But before we go any further, a question: have you already formulated an opinion on the Mets season? Or do you need the final 12 games to judge 2014?
Mets Game Notes
Friday night I was busy pouring wine in Boston. Saturday I was driving back from Boston and then working another event that evening in NJ. Sunday afternoon I chose to spend the gorgeous afternoon on a bike ride rather than sit inside and watch a Mets game (I guess I wasn’t buying into the idea that these were meaningful games). So there isn’t anything for me to discuss specifically about what happened in the ballgames.
With a dozen games left — half of which are against the Nationals and Braves — the Mets are 72-78. There’s a really, really good chance they win at least two of those final twelve and at least match last year’s 74-88 record. If they go at least 6-6 through these final two weeks, their record will be 78-84. If they go 12-0, they’ll finish 84-78, which could mean a second-place finish but might not mean a Wild Card spot (though, the possibility does remain).
There are a number of different ways these final dozen games can go for the Mets, and I’m curious: will you judge the club based on what happens between now and the end of the season, or have you already formulated your opinion?
Let me put it this way: let’s say the Mets completely tank and lose all 12, or at least 9, of these final games — will their resulting losing record change your perspective on who they are and what they accomplished (or didn’t accomplish)? And in the reverse, if the Mets win 10-12 of their final games, and finish with a winning record, will it change your view of the season compared to where they are today?
Or, have you already decided what this club is / was in 2014, based on the first 150 games?
Sound off in the comments.
Next Mets Game
The Mets and Marlins begin their final series against each other of the season at 7:10 PM. Jacob deGrom faces Jarred Cosart.
My answer to your question is both. I have already formed an opinion on the Mets, but the next 12 games matter. First, regardless of the next 12, it is clear that they are far behind the Nats. Alderson and Collins constantly refer to the Mets as being close, but close to what? Competing for the wild card is not the target, it is a consolation prize. Yippee, a one game playoff to see who plays the team with the best record in the league. The first target is winning the division, followed by winning the league. The NL East belongs to the Nats, and they-are stacked with good young players, most under team control, and some more talented players in the pipeline. Getting Harvey back and tweaking the lineup will not close the gap. The Nats will likely be better next year too. Regarding the last 12 games, they matter, because this franchise is mired in losing. Putting up a 9-3 to pull to .500, and passing the Nats and maybe the Braves will leave a different taste for the potential 2015 customers as well as the psyche of the returning players and 2015 new additions.
1) Can deGrom bolster his ROY chances? Double digit wins would probably help.
2) Any chance a huge finish gets d’Arnaud or Familia into the ROY discussion?
3) Will Herrera provide any encore to his hot first 4 games, making the last week look like a mere slump, or will his start look like a fluke as he finishes at .180 or so? The perception of Herrera heading into the offseason will impact the press around a Murphy trade, and for all I know it’ll impact an actual Murphy trade too. Although I’m not dumb enough to pick my 2015 second baseman based on 12 games, the Mets just might be.
4) Any more hints about who’s the real Zack Wheeler? The guy’s such a mixed bag that I update my hopes and fears after pretty much every start. If he hits the glove and finishes strong in his last two starts, I’ll feel a little better about his trajectory.
5) Juan Lagares has had the best defensive season of any Met since Ordonez’s prime. Although dWAR is a pretty nebulous stat, a homerun robbery or a few big plays could put Juan on some “best season since the stat’s existed” lists, which I think is cool.
6) Lucas Duda can finish in or out of the top 5 in HRs and RBIs depending on how he finishes. It won’t change my impression of him going forward, but I root for the guy and it’d be nice to see him add to his resume.
7) How good is the team’s mental endurance? Once all hope is officially lost, will they continue to play watchable ball, or will everyone loaf and start booting balls? If the latter, will Collins’ job security diminish?
8) Which pitchers will get how injured? I am already not expecting much out of Black next year, but continuing to pitch with a spinal injury might knock him out more decisively.
As for the Mets overall, they are exactly what they were predicted to be, and for every bit of bad luck that Alderson can point to, there was a bit of good luck to balance it. Just because you have a lot of young guys doesn’t mean every improvement is a given, or lasting, or a step toward stardom. Don’t bank on shutdown 8ths from Familia, 30 HRs from Duda, or the best D in the game from Lagares again in 2015.
The pitching injuries are also a big question mark; we KNOW at least one or two pitchers will go down at some point, and it could easily be more than that. What will the Mets have going for them if, say, Wheeler, Niese, and Gee go down? And now that the plan is to shut down Harvey for the winter, who knows how his return will go?
From a slow first baseman, is that an asset? I don’t know.
I continue to think he should be platooned. Hand those hopeless 100 ABs vs lefties (.170/.259/.210) to Campbell and our 1B production would start looking like a real strength.
You mentioned Duda’s age — I think it’s also worth mentioning that this is Lagares’ NINTH year in pro ball, and he turns 26 in March. He’s probably closer to his ceiling than most 2nd year big leaguers.
Familia’s BABIP before the Marlins series was .257. He was pretty much due to give up 4 hits in 5 batters — that’s gonna happen sometimes when your K rate is merely average.