Craig on Mets’ List?
Normally, I am the first to denigrate any trade proposals and I fully expect the Mets to do nothing of the sort, but given the dearth of news about the Mets these days, there really isn’t much else to write about and I need to scratch this itch. So here goes.
The Mets should trade LHP Jon Niese to the Boston Red Sox for LF/1B Allen Craig.
Boston added Craig at last year’s trade deadline, in exchange for John Lackey, a move that you may have missed due to some of the more dramatic trades made that week. A listfranc injury limited Craig to just 29 games for Boston in 2014. He batted a measly 128/234/191 for the Sawk, likely attributable to the injury. But in the previous five years with the Cardinals he hit 291/343/460 with OPS of 803. More on him in a minute.
In what most Met fans would consider as a disappointing year, Niese’s 1.28 WHIP was a career best and he logged 187 innings last year, three off his career high in 2012. With the exception of the now-departed Jon Lester, Niese statistically out-pitched every 2014 Boston starter and came close to matching Lester in several (good) categories. While not an ace, Jon represents the next tier of pitchers and is a solid, less costly left-handed alternative to Lester. The Red Sox have a glut of outfielders, first basemen and designated hitters, so the opportunity convert some of that into a pitcher such as Niese may prove hard for them to resist.
As for the Mets, they get a man who has been called one of the best pure hitters in the major leagues. A right handed hitter, he can provide relief for Lucas Duda or Matt den Dekker against tough lefties. He could hit anywhere from second to fifth in the lineup, extending both it and the bench. He has even played a little second base. It is worth repeating that the Mets don’t necessarily need to add a slugger as much as they need to add a slasher like Craig, who consistently puts the ball in play. And, he is not bereft of power— just ask the Texas Rangers.
Unfortunately, any Met trade discussion has to include salaries. Here’s the beauty of it, the Niese and Craig contracts are nearly identical for their duration:
Year Craig Niese
2015 $5.5M $7.0M
2016 $9.0M $9.0M
2017 $11.0M $10.0M*
2018 $13M* $11.0M*
*Team Option
On the flip side, Mets GM Sandy Alderson has been characterized as wanting to win every deal and this one carries some danger. The major risk for the Mets is Niese is two years younger than Craig and could be entering some of his prime years locked into a team-friendly contract. Craig’s foot injury is the type that might never heal and if so, his best years are behind him. That’s why you have team doctors check him out first. The betting here is that the Mets have enough pitching to cover Niese’s departure (even if this deal is made and then goes south). I also think that they actually run a greater risk with an ill-advised free agent signing or dealing away multiple prospects for a power hitter.
I am starting to talk myself into believing this could actually happen. What do you think? Sound off below.
for that money, I’d go with Cudyer.
http://orthoinfo.aaos.org/topic.cfm?topic=A00162
It is a reasonably proposal for sure but I would probably look elsewhere. Leaving the staff withouta lefty starter is a concern as is the risk involving Craig’s foot. Now, the market pricesfor an FA like Cuddyer or could change my mind.
Niese for Craig is a great trade if the Mets first package Duda in a trade for Tulo or something, but otherwise it doesn’t fit the Mets’ current roster.
I certainly wouldn’t trade Duda to someone who is NOT valuing him as a 30 HR guy, though. That’s why I mentioned Tulo — the trade would have to be ambitious. With Wright aging, we need a few stars to plug into our cast of guys who are just okay. So if any true stars become available, I’d be inclined to part with whoever it takes. I wonder how Stanton feels about the Marlins’ latest extension talks? If the Fish move him, a package of Duda-Wheeler-Plawecki might be tough to top…
That is, if Craig continues to stink as he did in 2014 – negative 1.4 fWAR, which is horrible – the team holding his contract still owes him $25.5 million regardless of his performance whereas if Niese tanks the team holding his contract only owes him $16.0 million.
Craig’s best year was 2.7 fWAR in 2012 and I don’t see him as part of the solution for the Mets. Again, he was horrible in 500 plus ABs in 2014.
Possible that Craig rebounds in 2015? Sure, a definite possibility. But the Mets are strapped for cash and I think they can put this $25 million owed to Craig to better use.
Something just hit me — “… the Mets are strapped for cash …” is something that has been said for at least five years now.
FIVE YEARS!!!!!
Who ever would have believed that a New York-based Major League sports franchise could be strapped for cash for half a decade? (Indoor soccer does not count as a “Major League sports franchise.”) And as part of an entity that is flush with nearly ten billion dollars of revenue and growing?
Yet loyal fans sit back and accept it, believing it’s part of the “rebuilding process.”
Now THAT’S “amazin’.”
My response to Joe wasn’t entirely apropos, the Jets simply popped into my head as a team currently unwilling to spend money.
But you know what team has been a genuinely cash-strapped NY franchise for years? The Islanders.
I think the more accurate statement is “the Mets were strapped for cash”. At this point, that is nonsense, and you can count me among the “who” who don’t believe it. It is now a choice of how they choose to conduct business, avert risk, and sell it to the customers. With the Madoff settlement, the debt refinancing, the new TV money, and the significant increase in franchise and TV station values, there is plenty of money to support a mid-tier payroll in the neighborhood of $120 million. Even with Jeffy’s defense fund spending way beyond budget.
I do agree with your conclusion, that “loyal” fans sit back and accept it. We all accept it to a certain degree, and deserve our fair share of the “blame”, but those providing the main source of funding, the “loyal” season ticket holders, are the ones that feed the beast the most. But, it is certainly their choice on how they spend their money.
I’m sure Bud loves the Cubs — perpetual big-market losers, whose failures at buying a title have led them to stop trying that approach — and I bet we’ll see the Wilpons buy more and more into their marketing strategy. “Come to Citi Field! There’s a place for kids to hit! The upper deck concourse is nice! David Wright’s a likable guy! Music! Bobbleheads! $1.00 off hotdogs! Note: there will also be a baseball game.”
Meanwhile the pleads for Cuddyer need to stop. He will be 36 years old next year, coming off a season where he was limited to 49 games and is about as capable in the outfield as Duda or Craig. The Coors effect inflated his numbers to .400 at home with a 1.255 OPS compared to .282 with a .734 OPS on the road. Now if we want to bring him in to platoon with Duda or den dekker and play against lefties who he mashed to the tune of .412/.483/.804 I would have no issue with that, but he will be quickly priced out of a platoon role on the free agent market.
Shane’s floor with the bat is certainly higher than Matt’s, but I’m hoping we can get more than that for Gee + Murphy. If no one values those guys, though, then this move might be better than nothing.
Agreed on Cuddyer. Would love to have him for limited $ and a limited role, but that ain’t gonna happen.
I remember reading about the Madoff debacle as it unfolded in the early stages and it (quite understandably) never occurred to me that my favorite baseball team was going to be impacted by Madoff for 10 years thereafter.
Another thing that is unbelievable – and this goes to Cappy’s point that Craig is an advisable acquisition at $25.5 million over three years – is how much salaries continue to skyrocket. Some people on Fangraphs are projecting that Cuddyer gets 4 years / $50 million in free agency so if Cuddyer is worth that much, maybe Craig – who will likely rebound from this horrible 2014 to be a 2 win player or so – is a $25.5 million player over the next three years. But can’t MDD and Eric Campbell basically get you 2.0 WAR or so for a lot cheaper? Maybe / maybe not, I guess. Both of these guys showed something this year, but neither have proven they can hit major league pitching. What I mean is, quite possible that both of these guys are outed in 2015 as AAAA players – it’s still in doubt and you can’t say that these guys are each of a ML platoon or even quality bench players.
The thing is, if you watch the NL playoffs Craig, his body type looks like Lucas Duda’s. And my understanding from people that watch him play and advanced metrics is that he basically plays the OF like Lucas Duda. Do we need that?
All of the arguing I see elsewhere in the blogosphere about “higher payrolls don’t necessarily equal winning” will soon go out the window, because nearly ALL payrolls are going to continue to increase — teams will be spending more money merely to keep the players they have, never mind spending to obtain players from the outside.
I continue to see the sh*t-eating grin on Alderson’s face when he was making fun of the Nationals for “overpaying” for Jayson Werth. Who’s getting the last laugh on that one? Similarly, someone this year is going to “overpay” for someone like Cuddyer or Pablo Sandoval — maybe not to the tune of 7/$126M, but it will be a similar situation of someone who doesn’t SEEM like a huge payday guy, yet will get a huge payday and again raise the bar for everyone at that level (while sending superstar salaries like V-Mart, Scherzer, Ham-Ram into the stratosphere). It will also be interesting to see how much teams pay for power, now that there’s a serious shortage.
Great description on the grin. That irks me too, but I must admit I’d have it too if I was getting around $3 mil a year of Wilpon money to shield Jeffy from the NYC magnifying glass.
Just not for Niese (or even Murphy), or any top ten prospect. There is also the little matter of the $13M he is owed for next year.
The 2 years sandwiching 2013, his OPS was .700. And his career OPS+ is only 104. And he’s 33 yrs old. And he’s due big $$. No thank you.
The Mets have already been down this road with Granderson, although at least Victorino is a good defensive player.
If Victorino were a couple years younger or had a lower salary, I’d consider a straight-up swap. As it is, if the Sawx want Neise or Murphy, the Mets need to get more than just Victorino.
Alderson and the Mets only have so many bullets, so they need to be right on target. Victorino has his plusses, but he is not strong enough vs LHP to be considered an everyday leadoff hitter. I would prefer that they prioritize a professional RH bat in a corner OF spot. While TDA looked good in the 2nd half, they are still short from the right side, and DW is no given coming off his 2014 season. I think that RH bat is a higher priority, unless they can land an everyday, all-star caliber leadoff hitter. What is very interesting this offseason, is that while the Met needs are clear, there are many ways they can be addressed. How they solve one will impact how they solve another, so the GM will really need to have his head on a swivel to be prepared for many different scenarios that can present themselves. Victorino could make sense in some scenarios.
Then he was awesome in 2013. “Oh, I guess we were wrong!”
The he was bad and injured in 2014. “Oh, maybe we were right after all.”
He’s about to turn 34, and in his last healthy year his steals dropped from 39 to 21, and his triples from 7 to 2 (after 16 in 2011). This sounds to me like a guy who’s slowing down. I have ZERO interest in a slow Shane Victorino.
If we make a fair trade for a mediocre corner guy, great; I like the fact that he has some upside beyond that. But if we make a fair trade for the 2013 model, I think our odds of that working out are lousy.
Of course it’s not like it really matters what I think since he may not even be available and I don’t see Alderson making such a bold move, but a man can dream.
What are people’s thoughts on a shortstop solution? I was really hoping JJ Hardy would land in our laps, but the Orioles locked him up. The free agent market is now underwhelming aside from Hanley Ramirez who is probably more of a third basemen now and certainly will need to be moved there eventually. The trade market has a few options, but I am not a fan of either Castro or Baez of the Cubs, who I think will both ultimately not end up being shortstops. I have a weird affinity for Didi Gregorious who is above average defensively while also showing 10-15 home run power and pretty good plate discipline. His BABIP was unusually low and that dragged down his batting average. He also is blocked at shortstop by Chris Owings and might be a prime buy-low candidate. I have no idea what it would take to get him. Maybe Reynolds and Montero? Or perhaps quite a bit more.
Actually you make a good point with Victorino that I hadn’t considered. He could actually be a better RH value than Cuddyer although he would cost players in addition to money. He’s worth consideration if the price isn’t too high, since Victorino is only under contract for 2015.
Oh, wait …
If Sandy & Co. are prioritizing building from within, this is the kind of thing that cannot happen. If you’re not going to be the highest bidder for proven major leaguers like Ellsbury, then you need to be the highest bidder for development guys like Greer. Doing neither = simply waiting to get lucky. Sad sad sad.
(Not that I was high on Greer before — didn’t know anything about him, really — but if the Cards want him teaching their youngsters, he must be good.)
Agreeing with both. Not sure what the details were with Greer, so hard to say in that one instance, but overall, this is another glaring inconsistency between what is being said and what is being done. Vegas is by far the biggest issue. Regardless of how it is spun by Alderson and crew, It is the worst AAA affiliate. For an east coast team to be stuck with it is a huge indictment. Several closer affiliates came up for renewal this year, and if I am not mistaken, some switched affiliation. Nashville went from the Brewers to the As. This would have been a huge improvement for the Mets, having a team much closer, one time zone away, a 2 hour direct flight away, and in a warm weather climate that would not freeze players out at the beginning of the season but not be as extreme as Vegas in the summer. So, the Mets lost out to the A’s, all the way on the west coast, or they chose not to try for Nashville, or Nashville didn’t want to deal with them. In any even, this is yet negative another mark against the franchise. I wish the beat writers would call out Alderson on that one.
Greer is the guy who helped out Ike Davis (albeit briefly), shortened den Dekker’s swing, and got d’Arnaud going — among others. Hopefully the Mets can hold on to Lamar Johnson and Wally Backman, but if those two get plucked as well, I’m not sure who will be left to “finish” the maturing youngsters.
Also, with TDA, Lagares, Flores, and Wright in the lineup, why do they need another RH bat?
As usual, the Mets missed what might have been a chance to sell high on Dillon after 2013. If we dealt him now, I doubt we’d get a lot — maybe Ethier but with no money thrown in.