Pitching Competition Begins

Pitchers and catchers have now been playing catch for a week, and in less than six weeks from today, only two catchers and 12 pitchers will be leaving Port St. Lucie as New York Mets. Unless something drastic occurs between now and then, the backstops will be Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro (sorry, Robinson Cancel and Raul Casanova). The pitching staff, however, is another story.

We’ll assume the following pitchers are positively guaranteed a spot, barring injury:

1. Johan Santana
2. Pedro Martinez
3. John Maine
4. Oliver Perez
5. Orlando Hernandez
6. Billy Wagner
7. Aaron Heilman

For the remainder of the spots, the following pitchers have the best chance:

8. Duaner Sanchez
9. Pedro Feliciano
10. Scott Schoeneweis
11. Jorge Sosa
12. Matt Wise

Hmm … many would argue that the above five are pretty close to guaranteed a spot on the staff as well. If that’s true, then what’s the competition?

A few things to consider: first, at least one or more arms will go down with either a minor or serious injury — that’s the odds, particularly when your staff includes El Duque. Second, no one is sure exactly what to expect from Sanchez yet. Yes, he looks in great shape, and appears healthy. But he hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since July 2006. We don’t know for certain that he’ll be able to regain the velocity and movement that made him a lights-out setup man. Third, there’s a chance that of someone not on the above list has an unbelievable spring — good enough to push someone out.

Still, had I not put up that list of 12, would you have realized the pitching staff was so close to being “set”? Take a look again … do you see anyone missing who you thought for sure would be in that group?

Let’s take a look at “everyone else” — the pitchers who will have to fight for the chance to go north:

(from the 40-man roster)

– Joe Smith
– Mike Pelfrey
– Stephen Register
– Ruddy Lugo
– Brian Stokes
– Willie Collazo
– Carlos Muniz
– Jason Vargas
– Adam Bostick

OK, from Lugo down, we’re looking at guys who likely already have their AAA ticket. But Smith would have been a shoo-in for the 25-man roster had he not burned out last June. Pelfrey of course was the top candidate for a rotation spot before that lefty from Minnesota showed up, and we’ve heard enough about Register to think he’s the next Nolan Ryan. Yet all three could start the year in New Orleans.

Non-roster Invitees:

– Tony Armas
– Ricardo Rincon
– Juan Padilla
– Andy Cazavos
– Nate Field
– Nelson Figueroa
– Joselo Diaz
– Ryan Cullen
– Eddie Kunz
– Brant Rustich
– Jon Niese
– Bobby Parnell

We know that Cullen, Kunz, Rustich, Niese, and Parnell don’t have much of a shot to make the big club, but have been brought in just in case one of them turns out to be the next Joe Smith. Before pitching in Japan, Joselo Diaz was the Mets’ annual February wunderkind, the phenom who hit triple digits on the first day of spring training. Nice to see him back in camp to light up the guns; wouldn’t it be great if he could finally find the strike zone?

Of the veterans, we’d think that Armas had the best opportunity — presumably to take the long relief / spot starter / poker partner role that Aaron Sele slept in last year. Rincon has an outside shot to be a LOOGY if the other four LOOGYs car pool to camp every morning and have the misfortune of driving off a bridge. Juan Padilla was the 2004 version of Duaner Sanchez (almost) and it would be a fantastic story if he could come back from his myriad injuries. No one has any idea why Cazavos, Figueroa, and Field are in camp, but I suspect they really weren’t invited but rather were inspired by the movie Wedding Crashers.

Bottom line: there isn’t nearly as much open space on the pitching staff as many of us may have imagined. In fact the competition appears to be as tight as the fight for the 13th position player.