Winter Meetings Wrap-up
A quick rundown on what happened between the last winter meetings update and the end of the meetings …
The Dodgers traded Matt Kemp, catcher Tim Federowicz, and $32M to the San Diego Padres in exchange for catcher Yasmani Grandal and right-handed pitchers Joe Wieland and Zach Eflin. Whoa. I know that LA had a logjam in the OF, a bloated payroll, and needed a catcher, but was this the best they could do? Especially when they sent so much cash to San Diego? Think of it this way: how many MLB teams would salivate over the possibility of having a difference-maker and potential MVP on their roster for the next 5 years for the “measly” sum of $75M? In today’s market, that’s a steal for a power hitter. Yeah, Kemp is 30 years old and his best days are behind him, but again, think about it from the aspect of what a team gets in return for 5/75. Compare that to, for example, the fact that Albert Pujols will be getting $130M over the next five years — and will still be due another $59M over the next two beyond that! And really, isn’t it likely that Kemp and Pujols have similar production between now and 2019? Or, compare to the contract Pablo Sandoval just signed — 5 years, $95M. Will Sandoval be more productive than Kemp? Aren’t there similar questions regarding age and health?
Also, it seems that the Dodgers flipped Elfin to Philadelphia, added lefty Tom Windle, and possibly included someone else in return for Jimmy Rollins. All the particulars are not yet in place, but it seems that Rollins to LA is a done deal.
Rollins’ double-play partner will be Howie Kendrick, acquired from the Angels for Andrew Heaney — the prospect LA plucked from the Fish as part of the Dee Gordon deal.
Finally, the Hollywood boys signed Brandon McCarthy to a 4-year, $48M contract. Yowza. That seems like a lot of money and years for a 30-something starter with a very spotty injury history and only one MLB season of more than 170 innings pitched. Wouldn’t the Dodgers have been better off keeping Kemp and his contract?
So that was just the Dodgers. In other news …
The Phillies continued their tear-down by sending Antonio Bastardo to the Pirates in return for minor league LHP Joely Rodriguez. Doesn’t seem like big news, but Bastardo appeared in 244 games over the past 4 years, averaging about 11 Ks per 9 innings. This is a great under-the-radar pickup for the Bucs, and at first glance, seems puzzling by the Phillies — couldn’t they have received more in return for a proven, fairly solid lefthanded reliever who misses bats? Rodriguez’s minor league numbers are unspectacular, and he’s “old” (23) for someone who just spent his first year in AA and produced a stat line that suggests a repeat at that level. However, there’s more to Rodriguez than the numbers — he’s lefthanded, for one, and he’s spent his entire pro career as a starter. In that capacity, he’s touched 95 MPH with a four-seamer, though usually operates on the corners with a 91-93 MPH two-seamer / sinker. Hmm … sounds similar to the lefthanded version of a young Bobby Parnell. Maybe the Phillies think that a move to the bullpen and another year of seasoning will turn Rodriguez into another — shall we say? — Antonio Bastardo?
The Red Sox rival the Dodgers in their winter activity. We already covered the signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez that occurred prior to meetings, and since then, they also re-signed Koji Uehara, signed Justin Masterson, traded for Wade Miley, and sent Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit for Rick Porcello. A week ago, the Bosox were desperate for pitching — particularly starting pitching — and it appeared as though they might be a potential trade partner for the Mets, considering that Boston had a surplus of outfielders such as Cespedes, Shane Victorino, and Allen Craig, as well as a possible surplus of shortstops. Well, now with Porcello and Masterson added to the staff, I don’t know if there will be dialogue between the Red Sox and Mets. Though, I could see Dillon Gee sent to Beantown for Craig — our own Dan Capwell suggested Allen Craig as a possible target a few weeks ago. Seems feasible to me — what do you think? I still don’t like the idea of trading Gee, but if the Mets are intent on dumping his salary, getting Craig would seem to be a good fit, based on their desire to find a RH-hitting corner guy to keep Lucas Duda on the bench against LHPs. Thoughts?
Rumor had it that when the Mets called about Cespedes, Boston insisted on Jacob deGrom or Zack Wheeler in return. I’m sure every Mets fan believed that was preposterous, but if you step back and look at it from a non-biased perspective, it wasn’t an obnoxious demand and it was worth considering. Of course, one has to take off the blue and orange glasses and understand that Wheeler and deGrom are not guaranteed to become Cy Young Award winners. It could be argued that Boston received a better return than either Wheeler or deGrom in landing Porcello, who is about the same age (25) as both Mets hurlers but has 6 full seasons of MLB experience. He might not win a Cy Young or be the ace of a staff, but he’s a proven, valuable entity — he’s won 14 or more games three times, won in double-digits every season, has taken the ball 30 times a year in five of his six seasons, and is coming off his very best season as a pro. The one thing Porcello doesn’t do is miss bats, and if you over-value that skill, then you might think Porcello isn’t as valuable as deGrom or Wheeler. Then there’s the other big point: Porcello, like Cespedes, will be a free-agent after 2015. I know many of you don’t feel it makes sense to trade for a one-year rental, but a) it’s always possible to extend players; and b) at some point, when a team decides it’s going “all in,” there likely will be a few rentals to help getting to the postseason. I’m not suggesting that the Mets should have traded deGrom or Wheeler for Cespedes; all I’m saying is that it isn’t nearly as inconceivable as the Mets blogosphere perceived. The Mets need offense, and are looking for homerun power in particular. Today, that kind of player has a high cost. Cespedes is one of those players. I also wonder if this time next year, people will be wondering if the Mets should have “sold high” on deGrom (or Wheeler) — reminds me a little of the winters when no Mets fan wanted to give up Lastings Milledge for Manny Ramirez.
The White Sox are right behind the Red Sox and Dodgers in terms of winter activity. They signed David Robertson (I don’t remember if we covered that one or not. In any case, scratch him off your Christmas list), traded for LOOGY Dan Jennings, and traded for Jeff Samardzija. They also just signed Melky Cabrera.
The Cubs signed Jon Lester.
The Reds traded Mat Latos to the Marlins for Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Wallach, and traded Alfredo Simon to Detroit Tigers for SS Eugenio Suarez and RHP Jonathon Crawford. I don’t understand either of these deals from the Cincinnati perspective, and don’t understand if they’re shooting for the postseason or rebuilding. Regardless, the Fish now have a new version of Josh Johnson — a starter with ace-like stuff, IF you can get him on the mound. They’re rolling the dice that Latos will remain healthy enough to be a factor, but I’m betting against it. Latos has battled various arm issues through the years and his mechanics are dangerous. Funny how those two things go hand in hand.
The Cardinals signed Mark Reynolds. Hmm … he wouldn’t have been a terrible option for the Mets for that RH-hitting corner guy with power playing twice a week role.
There were other moves during the meetings that I missed, I’m sure. And there have been more moves since last week, that we’ll get to shortly. Is it me, or have the last few weeks been unusually crazy in terms of player movement?
Post your notes in the comments.
I read three other Mets blogs besides this one, and while I think Joe is sometimes too negative I think one of the other sites is always far too positive, and the other two can at times drift into the same excessive positivity: believing that all Mets prospects will pan out, and that guys like Wheeler and deGrom are guaranteed to be perennial All Stars.
Porcello’s had an impressive career so far: 15.3 fWAR through his age 25 season, and he’ll pitch all of 2015 at age 26. No, he’s not a strikeout pitcher at 5.49 strikeouts per nine innings but that doesn’t mean he isn’t successful.
I would have loved to see Porcello on the Mets, but I’m not so sure the Mets infield defense would have been a match for him as this Fangraphs article seems to indicate he’s a ground ball pitcher: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/do-the-red-sox-have-a-ground-ball-fetish/
As I wrote in a previous post, I’m worried about the Mets defense with TDA a work in process behind the plate; an aging Wright at 3B, Flores at SS (’nuff said), Murphy at 2B (not a good defensive player despite the occasional nice play that leads other blogs to claim he’s improving), Duda at 1B (slightly below average in my opinion), Cuddyer in LF/RF at age 36, and Grandy in RF/LF at age 34 (in a steady decline defensively at this point that is unlikely to be reversed).
In my opinion, only Lagares looks above average and Wright is average: every other starting defensive player is either slightly below average (like Duda) or worse.
That defensive alignment is very concerning to me yet you don’t really see anyone analyzing the entire defense of the Mets and pointing this out.
I prefer to term my perspective as “fair and balanced.” Our society has evolved into extremism, where one is either for something or a “hater,” in politics, sports opinions, child-rearing, business strategy — nearly every aspect of our lives. If you don’t like the movie “12 Years a Slave,” you’re a racist. If you don’t like Obamacare, you don’t believe people should have access to free medicine. If you don’t want to be part of “Occupy Wall Street,” then you must be a wealthy person who wants to keep the working man down. If you If you point out Dan Murphy’s horrific defense, you’re a hater.
Here, I try to keep a balanced perspective on the Mets, and often, that means going a little overboard to balance out the effusive praise spewed from that other far-too-positive blog you mention.
/off soapbox
Good point on Porcello’s ground-ball rates being a mismatch for the Mets’ heavy-handed infield. It seems the strategy is to get fly-ball / high-K pitchers on the mound in Flushing, and keep fingers crossed that there aren’t too many ground balls. I’m not sure if that’s a recipe for success — particularly when one keeps moving in the fences — but I’m curious to know if anyone has ever done an advanced study on championship teams that had pitching staffs with high fly-ball rates. Can anyone point to a source? My google brain is fuzzy right now, but maybe I’ll do some searching after I have some coffee.
As for the Sandoval comparison, well, Kemp’s a better hitter, but Pablo’s been healthier, and the difference between 28 and 30 is pretty big these days…
I am very worried about the defense and I don’t think it gets better until Murphy is traded and Flores / Herrera begins to man 2B and they get a SS who can field well. That will significantly tighten up the middle of the diamond and, with Lagares in CF, would combine to make you feel pretty good about the Mets up the middle defense.
Lucas Duda.
Be afraid.
So this defensive concern is about Flores. I guess its a reasonable concern, but Tejada will still be around, Flores still has to prove he can hit and some type of upgrade can still arrive.
The outfield is basically the same except for Cuddyer. We know Kirk and MDD can play defense and Mayberry seams to be a good athlete, and Granderson is also a good athlete, so can Cuddyer be that bad?
Finally, I´ll bet that TDA gets a lot better defensively this year.
The outfield IS basically the same except for Cuddyer — and the fact that Granderson is likely to get even worse with another year of age. At what point does the lack of range on the corners wear down Lagares?
Mayberry is not a good defender. But I don’t see him playing very often, anyway. In fact he may be released before July.
If it were me, I’d have more Kirk and MDD in the corners and less Grandy/Cuddyer.
I would like to hear your reasoning behind TDA getting a lot better defensively. I don’t doubt it can happen, I’m just curious.
For the Wilpons a “win” means securing Jeffrey’s progeny with a healthy trust fund from the property development in Flushing.
No stats or specific knowledge behind my bet. Sorry
Im basing it on first of all, blue and orange glasses, second that he only has one full season behind him, third, that he was a very valuable prospect across more the one organization, fourth, I recall Joe having written well about him, and finally, I think he might have been afected by the shots he took to the head.
With respect to Granderson, the guy seems focused and inteligent, so he´ll work out and another year should not affect his atleticism or fielding. Yes, he has a weak arm, but I understand he´s moving to left.
Finally, the Mets improved slightly last year, hopefully will continue the trend this year. Was the infield defense the main cause?
Advanced metrics indicate Mayberry isn’t great but according to Fangraphs and a second source which said the same thing (which unfortunately I am embarrassingly forgetting right now) the only reason Mayberry rates bad on those defensive metrics is because he was being used sometimes as a CF. Keep in LF or RF, said those two different articles, and he’ll be average to slightly above average as a corner OF.
On the Mets I think he will be used exclusively in RF or LF barring an injury because either MDD or Niewenhuis will make the team as a backup OF and more specifically will back up CF.
I was very surprised to see Puello not designated for assignment when the Mets added Mayberry. Instead, they designated Gonzalez Germen, which means they think (a) Puello can add more value to the major league team or (b) Puello has trade value.
With respect to (a), Puello is out of options and if he doesn’t make the team out of spring training then he needs to be designated for assignment (i.e., traded or released).
The answer probably lies with (b) so I’m thinking they hope Puello tears it up in spring training and they can deal him for something.
But let’s just suppose for a second that Mayberry completely pisses the bed in spring training and Puello destroys LHP, which has been his history in the minors (other than last year). What happens? Mayberry clearly has the inside track on the job as the cheap Mets would owe him $1.45 million (or whatever amount he signed for) and the Mets are unfortunately likely to take that amount into account rather than saying it is a sunk cost and giving the job to the best man.
So again I think it is unlikely that Mayberry is cut in spring training but I do think it is remote possibility.
So this post of mine agrees with what Joe says and further says it is possible that Mayberry is out of the picture even earlier.
Or maybe Mayberry hits the snot out of the ball all year and therefore (i) has trade value at the deadline if Mets are out of it or (ii) plays a Danny Heep / Lee Mazzilli type valuable pinch hitter role on the 2015 playoff-bound Mets! Maybe he can even fill in at SS a la Kevin Mitchell?
Alright, I’ll stop the nonsense here.