So This “Thor”– He is Really, Really, Really Good, Right?
The Mets have once again turned down the opportunity to fill their most gaping lineup hole, choosing instead to hold onto prized pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard rather than trade him for an all-star shortstop. That is at least two and possibly three (or more) chances they have passed up on, all of them apparently due to an unwillingness to part with Syndergaard, who also goes by the nickname Thor. He maybe ought to be dubbed “The Sure Thing.”
But is he really?
Acquired in December 2012 as part of the R.A. Dickey trade with Toronto, Syndergaard looked pretty good the following season, with a 9-4 record at two levels. He completely mastered the Eastern League with a 1.07 WHIP and 69 Ks in 54 IP. Then, because the Mets are a horribly run organization, they have their AAA team in Las Vegas, which is a plain awful environment for baseball’s equivalent of finishing school. At Vegas, Noah’s WHIP ballooned by nearly a half of a percentage point, while his K/9 ratio dropped and he walked almost one extra batter per nine innings than he did the year before.
Was this drop off due to the harsh pitching environment or something else? The Mets are betting on the former (a condition they conveniently ignore when touting their hitting prospects). I am not so sure. Wally Backman, to be sure a more qualified observer than I am, recently stated that Steven Matz and not Syndergaard, should be ranked as the Mets top pitching prospect. He added that Syndergaard “still has some work to do.” I’ll bet the Mets brass loved those comments.
So, here come the Washington Nationals and the Tampa Bay Rays, knocking on the Mets’ door with an Offer They Shouldn’t Refuse. The Mets can pencil in Ian Desmond as shortstop next year, all they have to do is send Syndergaard and another prospect to Tampa, the Rays having already landed Desmond from Washington for Ben Zobrist. It’s an intriguing offer. Desmond is still in his prime, slashing 255/313/430 while playing half of his games in that cavernous ballpark. His fielding is about league average, but that should put him ahead of the two incumbent Met shortstops. No thanks, was the Mets response.
Depending on your news source, the Rays offered the Mets Zobrist for Syndergaard straight up, before they shipped him to Oakland. Syndergaard’ s name is prominent in all of the Troy Tulowitzki rumors. Matthew’s site (as well as others) frequently mention how well the Mets match up with the Cubs, pitching for shortstops respectively. One assumes that a reluctance to part with Syndergaard is why Starlin Castro remains a Cub and why Brad Miller is still in Seattle.
I wonder if Mets GM Sandy Alderson regrets trading for Syndergaard, as his name pops up in just about every trade rumor involving the Mets. Arizona apparently wanted him in return for Didi Gregorius. Maybe they are over-valuing him and should be more receptive to overtures. I know I would have tried to make the Desmond deal work if I were Sandy, either by trying to sign Desmond to an extension first or by getting the other teams to include a second player coming back in the deal. I can remember all of the Generation K hysteria back in the mid 1990’s and the offers then GM Joe McIlvaine turned down. We know how that worked out.
Or maybe, it’s a GM version of Punk’d; with the aging Alderson being the foil for his more youthful counterparts. Imagine Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington listening in and suppressing laughs while Rick Hahn dangles a utility infielder in front of Sandy only to demand Syndergaard in return. Then Jon Daniels joining in the conspiracy by asking for Syndergaard in return for a journeyman LOOGY. Perhaps it is Syndergaard’s notoriety that is holding up any deals. He is a known prospect and other teams may be wary of appearing to settle for less in trade discussions with the Mets.
As currently constituted, the success of the Mets in 2015 hinges mainly on the ability of Wilmer Flores to play at least at replacement level at shortstop. This IMO, is even more important than bounce back seasons from David Wright and Matt Harvey. If Flores struggles, he won’t get out of April with the starting job. That will throw a big monkey wrench into the grand plan, as there is no Plan B. The Mets already have one shaky defender at second in Daniel Murphy. An inconsistent (or consistently bad) glove at short will doom them. I get and somewhat approve of the fact that there is a plan that is based on a long stretch of cost-controlled, under-contract players, but this has its own risks. Flores aside, there is also the risk that Syndergaard never plays to his potential (or gets hurt). While sometimes the best trade is the one not made, standing pat can carry its own risks as well. Ask McIlvaine. If the Mets are right about Flores, they are probably playing into October. If he flops however its another lost season. Since I have just about given up on any major changes occurring with this team, we fans will once more endure the spin while the losses pile up. Won’t those be good times?
So what do you think? Hold on to Noah at all costs? Deal him for a bona-fide shortstop or go with Wilmer? Something else? Sound off below.
The Mets need better defense in the middle infield, but that doesn’t mean they need an elite overall shortstop. Using our assets to acquire a star at another position, and filling SS with a weak-hitting glove man, would be preferable to spending all our chips on a rental like Desmond. The guy I really want is Goldschmidt; he may be unavailable, but a few guys have already been moved this offseason who we would have said that about.
My thoughts precisely. I am no Sandy lover, but one thing I will give him credit for is his marine-like discipline. Be it right or wrong, he’s not going to blink. I am quite sure that he would deal Syndergaard, or another young arm for that matter, but he isn’t going to do so unless he gets what he wants – either an established star that is healthy and controllable, or a young low-cost blue chipper that is very likely to succeed.
One year of Desmond for the top two prospects just doesn’t make sense. It is hare for we Met fans to separate the continued lack of pulling the trigger from the one specific move (me included), but I understand not dealing for a discounted Tulo until you can see he is recovered, and I understand passing on potentially one year of Desmond for your best prospects. I am quite OK with them being “in” for 2015 as opposed to “all in” if it diminishes the likelihood of a long run of high quality baseball.
I agree that today, that up-the-middle defense is the bigger issue than landing a star SS. Alderson knows this as well. The clock is ticking on him, and if he fails to address that issue he will have essentially failed this offseason. So, I’ll give him a little more time to swap out his veteran pitcher and find an insurance policy for Flores not named Ruben Tejada.
Lastly, I think Backman blurted out this weekend what Alderson is thinking as well. Matz is the guy they will hang onto regardless, as he is the only lefty on track to make the MLB rotation, and he impressed last year at A+ and AA more than Harvey, Wheeler, or Syndergaard. We all know that this means nothing until they do it in the bigs, but they have a lot of depth from the right side. The almighty Thor, or even Wheeler, will go if needed, but only when it makes absolute sense. In the meantime, find some other ways to upgrade the 25man roster and up-the-middle infield defense. No excuses not to.
As for Sandy’s refusal to “blink”, I think we’re past the point where we should congratulate him just for not being other teams’ patsy. He was brought in here to change things and add talent to the organization, and while he’s had his moments, he certainly hasn’t been as active on that front as many GMs. Sandy speaks (and apparently thinks) only in terms of addressing specific needs one move at a time, while the A’s and Rays and Padres have shuffled a ton of bodies through a ton of positions because they’re intent on improving the team overall in whatever way they can. If you play the opportunistic “buy low, sell high” game, you can’t predict what sort of team you’ll wind up with (sluggers? control and defense? strikeout pitchers?), but you will wind up better off than you started (if you evaluate correctly).
Sandy has made a small number of real evaluation calls in his time here — Pagan and Dickey, really — and has otherwise been passive, waiting for the obvious. I don’t know how many of Preller’s manic moves in San Diego were actually the right ones, but the thing he’s trying to do is what Sandy should be trying to do — buy low on Kemp and Myers, sell high on Smith, Rivera and B prospects, and improve your team however you can.
No doubt Syndy is ahead on stuff. However, when building a staff, different looks on successive days has some value. Mets have three hard throwing RHP right now, will likely deal Gee, leaving them with Colon and Niese to provide some alternate looks. Also, there are a lot of stuff guys around, but separating the men from the boys in the rarified air of elite MLB pitching requires intangibles that are very difficult to project, such as command, guile, composure, rising to the occassion, health, maturity, etc. I think Backman and Viola may think Matz is stronger in those categories, kind of like deGrom and to a lesser extent Gee.
As for different looks, I think it’s nice, but not as important as running a good pitcher out there every day.
If the Mets really cared about variety, they could stop teaching every single minor leaguer a slider and change-up. Splitters, slow curves and cutters are pitches too! Heck, take some guys who probably aren’t gonna make it and let them try screwballs and knucklers! But splitters in particular — there are so few good ones in MLB today that anyone who can throw one has a huge advantage of unfamiliarity.
Basically, I agree with Dave.
You can say “sign Desmond to an extension,” but it certainly looks like he’s committed to testing the free agent market next off-season.
I’d like to see Sandy Alderson be more aggressive, but this wasn’t a good deal for the Mets.
Flores flopping is one, but not the only way this team’s season goes down the drain. I began to list a few but do not want to tempt fate which already seems to take an unhealthy interest in the Metropolitans.
If Flores struggles, he won’t get out of April with the starting job. That will throw a big monkey wrench into the grand plan, as there is no Plan B.
I dont fully agree. They have a plan B for 2015, which is Tejada and Reynolds.
We know Tejada can play average defense, so that solves the real problem.
They dont have a plan B for 2016 and beyond. Thats what they still have to work on.
Admittedly I’ve never seen him play, not once. But reading about his progress through the minors I get the sense he may surprise Mets fans.
A rotation of Harvey/deGrom/Noah/Wheeler with Montero or Niese or Matz bringing up the rear for years and years is worth a lot more than blowing that load just to become a fringe WC contender in 2015.
If this ownership was committed to spending commiserate to market, carrying a top 5 or 6 payroll as playing in the five boroughs demands, we wouldn’t have to fret over decisions like this.
But as long as we’re saddled with absentee landlord ownership that will only put up a payroll a little better than an Oakland or a Tampa, this is the proper path.
I also think it’s a little unfair to say that Flores is the difference between playoffs and a “lost season”, which sort of implies that the team is out of contention in august. That’s like a 15 game swing, which is way more than Flores can hope to give. I think a few games above .500 would make for a successful mets season
I read in various places that the Rays were looking for two high-level Mets prospects in exchange for Zobrist: something more like Syndergaard and Herrera for Zobrist.
I agree that I do not think the Mets brass were happy to hear Backman ranking Matz ahead of Syndergaard when the Mets this offseason seemed very willing to deal Syndergaard for Tulo, Desmond, or perhaps others. I think they would be happier if Backman talked up Syndergaard rather than put him behind Matz in conversations.