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November 13, 2008 Buzz Joe Janish

K-Rod Price Falling

Several sources are suggesting that the price for Francisco Rodriguez is falling quickly, and the Mets would do well to wait him out.

At five years, $75M, K-Rod is a risk, due to his violent throwing motion and the 408 career appearances in his young career. At, say, three years and $40M, signing him is a no-brainer.

It helps immensely that the Angels have moved on — and makes one wonder why they were so quick to leave the bidding. They know K-Rod better than anyone … is there some well-kept medical secret they’re not sharing? The Angels don’t appear to have an immediate in-house replacement, and Rodriguez has been a key to their success for the last six years. Makes one wonder.

Also, it helps that the deep-pocketed Red Sox and Yankees have no need for a closer. Further, that the Cubs seem more interested in retaining Kerry Wood than opening up their wallets. The Dodgers are too busy trying to keep Manny Ramirez, and probably aren’t in the market for a closer anyway. With those four clubs out of the running, who is left with the money to take on K-Rod?

In the past few years, the Giants have come out of nowhere to make ridiculously high signings (for Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand), so they are always a possibility. The Reds made a big splash last winter on Francisco Cordero — but obviously, they wouldn’t be looking to sign another big-ticket closer. Those two teams in Texas like to do things “big” every now and then, and both could use a bonafide closer, so I’d guess they will be the top bidders for the Mets to watch (ironically, there’s already a Texas sports talk radio station called “KROD“). It may come down to whether K-Rod truly wants to be on the big stage that is New York City.

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Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. isuzudude November 13, 2008 at 4:06 pm
    Krod and the Mets are going to engage in quite the game of chicken this offseason. Will Krod submit to a depreciated market, or will the Mets cave to his asking price out of desperation? As you mention, Joe, some random team, like the Giants, could blow everybody away and lay a 5-yr, $75-mil offer on the table for Krod, which he would be a moron to walk away from. But then again, his asking price, questionable durability, and the lack of deep-pocketed teams needing a closer could make him a hard sell. Perhaps the Mets are only 1 of 3 or 4 teams that have the ability and necessity to sign Krod, and you’d have to think the longer Krod remains a free agent the better it bodes for the Mets. In some ways it’s a lot like how the Johan sweepstakes went last offseason, and while it seemed dumb initially that the Mets would not include FMart, Pelfrey, Niese, or Reyes in any offer, it proved to be a genius move by Omar once the Yankees and Red Sox bowed out. Essentially, the longer the Mets waited and remained steadfast on their offer, the better their chances became of landing that prized possession. Could very well work the same way this offseason.

    On a sidenote, Kevin Gregg got shipped to the Cubs today, continuing Florida’s firesale. I’m relieved Omar decided against acquiring Gregg, who would be no permanent solution to our closing woes. Meanwhile, the Cubs will likly use Gregg in a setup role, which could allow them to slide Carlos Marmol into their closer’s role vacated by Kerry Wood. They might still re-sign Wood, but I’m guessing that likelihood lessened with this deal. Funny how so much conversation has revolved around Krod, Fuentes, Putz, Jenks, and Street, all while Wood is a free agent and a very capable replacement for Billy Wagner.

  2. Micalpalyn November 13, 2008 at 7:17 pm
    Ditto: Wood has had his injuries but I think woods performance as a closer was very strong. It makes no sense to me to open a fissure in the 8th inning while saving money. I definately would like Wood in the Mets BP.

    Meanwhile deals are getting done. I am appalled by the Yanks price for Damaso Marte which makes the Sho contract look palatable.