5 Early Warning Signs from Port St. Lucie
1. Johan’s Elbow
Make no mistake — Johan Santana has a problem with his elbow and it is going to be an issue for the entire season. Santana is a throwback, a tough guy who takes the ball, sacrifices himself for the team, and pitches through pain.
I’m a former player myself, and I can tell you firsthand that badasses such as Johan and myself go to the trainer to complain about an injury only when it’s become unbearable, and only as a last resort. The fact that Johan not only went to the Mets’ training staff to bring up an issue, but that it became public knowledge, throws up a dozen red flags.
I have two conspiracy theories. One, that Johan continues to pitch with pain, but feels he needs to earn his obnoxious contract and grin and bear it. Two, that the Mets won’t send Johan for an MRI because they’re afraid it might show damage, and they’ll have to shut him down. No Johan means no chance in hell that the Mets make the postseason, which in turn means season ticket sales grind to a screeching halt in an already depressed economy, and Citi Field doesn’t enjoy a record-breaking debut.
2. John Maine’s Shoulder … and Mechanics
Maine developed scar tissue and eventually, a cyst, on his shoulder due to a minor mechanical flaw in his delivery — a flaw that can be corrected. However, neither the Mets nor Maine did anything to correct the flaw, which by the way also adversely affects his command. Unless someone wakes up and tells Maine to break his hands in the middle of his body instead of behind his right hip, we’ll watch another inconsistent season of 5-inning outings and 12-pitch at-bats.
3. JJ Putz’s Fastball
When the Mets acquired Putz, the scouting report was that this was one of the top closers in all of MLB, with a “filthy” breaking ball and 95-96 MPH heat. In his first appearance as a Met in Port St. Lucie, Putz was barely able to break 89 MPH, and reached that only a few times. He had a similarly underwhelming debut for Team USA. Now, we know it can take a while for a flamethrower to build up his strength, but the fact he’s struggling to reach 90 MPH is a major concern.
4. The Back End of the Rotation
Normally we wouldn’t worry too much about the #5 spot in the rotation. However, we’re looking at the possibility of chronic elbow issues from the ace, and inconsistency from #4 man John Maine — which means the back end needs to pick up the slack. So far, Freddy Garcia has looked awful, Livan Hernandez even worse, and Tim Redding has yet to take the mound due to a shoulder injury. The next men on the totem pole — Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell — are at best average prospects and have less than 20 big league innings of experience between them.
5. Jerry Manuel’s Mouth
The honeymoon is nearly over. Manuel has reigned as a media darling ever since taking over the Mets last June. However, comments and cajoling that previously were presented as “zen-like”, charming, and “a breath of fresh air” are starting — though ever so quietly — to be questioned. Manuel has always been known as engaging with the media — much to the chagrin of his players. His loose lips helped sink the ship in Chicago, as his constant calling out of players eventually created a tense and resentful clubhouse.
A similar pattern began in the initial days at Port St. Lucie, when Manuel told reporters that Daniel Murphy was a “better hitter” than Ryan Church. Even if that statement were true, it’s not the type of thing you go around boasting about. Only a week later, NY Post writer Bart Hubbuch compiled a long list of Manuel’s missteps with the media (interestingly, the post was generally ignored by the rest of the media and most Mets blogs). It’s not even mid-March yet, and Manuel’s already marred his managerial tenure with his mouth.
Go ahead, paint me the negative Nelly. But the above five issues could be pebbles in one shoe of the Mets, leaving them hobbling around on one foot through the 2009 season.
Maine’s shoulder and mechanics . . . no argument here. Warthen should do something along the lines you suggest, and I’m not being sarcastic.
Give Putz some time, as you suggest.
It’s the first week of March. Give Garcia time, as well.
Hey, Manuel probably knows exactly how to fire up Church. I’d take a flyer on Manuel’s comment.
CatchDog – thanks for reading and thanks for joining the conversation! First: this isn’t “doom and gloom”, these are “warning signs”. Most of the Mets’ perspective in the media and the blogosphere lately is being delivered with pom-poms and a marching band — I’m trying to deliver the other side of the story, and present the possibility that all is not peaches and cream. What’s the fun if I write the same things that everyone else is writing?
Also, why are you bringing Willie Randolph into the conversation? Every time I write something mildly critical of Jerry Manuel, people immediately let me know how much better he is than Willie.
Well first of all, Willie is long gone, and isn’t coming back. Secondly, from what I’ve seen of Manuel, he’s actually very similar to Willie, other than being a media darling. He is equally oblivious when it comes to bullpen management, remarkably predictable with his “by-the-book”, in-game “strategy”, claims to put a premium on fundamentals and defense, and encourages aggressive baserunning. As far as his relationship with the players, no doubt there are those who like him and those who don’t — but, we won’t see/hear about the ones who don’t if/until the Mets start tanking. And the bottom line is this: both managers blew a first-place lead in the last week of the season.
SK – Johan Santana had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow prior to that Cy Young season of 2004. From what we’ve been told, the offseason surgery he had over the winter was for his knee. Had it been for his elbow, and it was cleaned out again, maybe I’d be with you on that point.
And why would Church need to be “fired up” in the first place? Last April / May he was one of the few Mets with a pulse. If anything Church should be firing up Mets management for being so irresponsible and incompetent in the handling of his head injuries.
Mikes Mets: Have you “enjoyed being a fan” over the past 2 years, watching the Mets routinely collapse at the finish line and make one bone-headed decision after another? That said, I think it’s completely possible to be hard on your favorite team and provide criticism while still watching the games with enjoyment, cheering on the players, and reveling in success when it is achieved. Otherwise we’d all be Braves fans – you know, the type that are happy if your team wins or loses. “Hey, we’ll just get’em next time. Good try guys!” When the Mets are one of the richest teams in the sport and insist on charging 2 arms and a leg just to watch their team play in person, we have every right to be critical and negative when it looks like they aren’t giving it 100%.
Catchdog: Can you really be serious when you have gone through the last 2 years and ask the question, “why the doom and gloom?” What has being optimistic and faithful gotten you or the team? Nothing. As I tell my friends who are also fans, it’s better to keep expectations low and forecast a turbulent season, because then if the Mets make the playoffs they over-achieve and we’re all pleasantly surprised. Otherwise, it becomes another season of writing the Mets into the playoffs by default and then pulling our hair out in September when they let us all down again. Also, you are way too jubilant about the Mets’ prospects. Every team has at least a dozen Neise, Murphy, and Evans in their system. They are nothing special. The only reason they look like gold in your eyes is because the rest of the “prospects” the Mets possess are mostly trash. And most every scout and baseball expert will concur with that. You can look through the ruby colored shades all you want, but you’re only going to be fooling yourself and setting yourself up for a letdown. You are right that it is early and that anything can happen, but if you use objectivity rather than subjectivity you will come to the realization that things aren’t as rosy as you paint them to be in Metsland.
SK: Your Johan reference is 5 years old. Add 5 years of wear and tear to Johan’s elbow and understand the need for concern. I think anytime when one of your star players who is being counted on for no less than a Cy Young caliber season simply whispers something about being in pain, it should throw up immediate red flags. Because if Joe or the rest of the media decided to pander to the Mets and brush the story under the carpet like they want, the reaction to a Johan injury in the future would not be pretty. At least now we are forewarned.
It’s more fun to be positive and upbeat and ignore the issues that might make us worry about the upcoming season. But this isn’t kindergarten class. The real world presents the Mets with a plethora of problems and obstacles, and it would be remiss for any Met fan with half a brain to overlook the team’s shortfalls. Have we not learned anything from the past 2 season?
isuzudude, your point about 90% of the team being away at the WBC is also an interesting point, particularly since all we’ve heard about is how the Mets’ clubhouse is segmented by clicks and has neither leadership nor chemistry — not to mention the new faces that need to get assimilated. It’s hard to develop any “chemistry” when everyone is in a different place.
On the other hand, you can look at from the point that everyone participating in the WBC presumably jump-started their preparation for the season a few weeks earlier, so when Opening Day arrives, they should be raring to go and set up for a quick start out of the chute.
12 of these, a dozen of that.
Isuzu; LOL –you are extremely predicable. You are a very bright guy but you flip flop worse than a politician. Had the first three posts agreed with Joe, you would have gone the other way for sure. That is your fallback position and you have mastered that skill, along with talking down to other bloggers quite well. Let’s just say that Dan Murphy and Jon Neise’s success (or lack of) will now be the official measuring tool of your credibility. They come with a free pair of rose colored glasses…
However, as an Omar defender I will say I am HUGELY disappointed in his stubbornness that has lost opportunities to add O-dog and a legit OFer in fact the whole OF is a mess. While you all know I don’t particularly like Putz , I also think Ryan Church has a lot to prove also. Everyone in the universe knows I-rod could easily platoon with Brian, while Ramon is hardly a fixture.
But like several others I am waiting to see how the month pans out and who goes north.