Multiple Scenarios

It’s agonizing, I know, but let’s look at the current NL East standings (preferably on an empty stomach):

Mets 87-71
Phillies 86-72

Let’s pretend the Mets lose tonight, and the Phillies win. Both teams will be in a tie for first, with three games to play. Whichever team plays best in the last three-game series of the year, wins the NL East. Of course, it’s also possible that both teams finish with identical records.

Or, tonight, the Mets could lose and the Phillies also lose. Then:

Mets 87-72
Phillies 86-73

Still, it’s going to come down to whomever plays better in the last three — and a tie is still possible.

Let’s say the Mets win and the Phillies win:

Mets 88-71
Phillies 87-72

Again, it will come down to the best team in the last three games of the year, though the Mets will have a slight edge. And a tie remains possible.

What if the Mets win and the Phillies lose?

Mets 88-71
Phillies 86-73

If this is the case after tonight, the Mets would have to get swept by the Marlins, and the Phillies would have to sweep the Nationals (something they nearly did last week), for the Mets to lose first place.

The Worst-Case Scenario

The Mets lose the last four games of the season, the Phillies win the last four:

Phillies 90-72
Mets 87-75

Obviously, in that case, the Mets only hopes would ride on the Wild Card race, which currently looks like this:

Padres 87-71
Phillies 86-72
Rockies 86-72
Braves 83-75

Oh boy. That’s not good. Unless the Padres also lose their next four games, and the Rockies go 1-3, and the Braves DON’T go 4-0, the Mets would be watching the postseason in the comfort of their million-dollar homes.

Vote for Pedro.

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.