What If Mets Don’t Sign Hairston?
Apparently, the signing of Matt Diaz has not affected the Yankees’ interest in Scott Hairston. Further, there are reportedly other teams in addition to the Yanks interested in the slugging Hairston. Though Hairston has stated his desire to return to the Mets, there remains a very real possibility his 2013 home team does not reside in Flushing. If Hairston signs elsewhere, who is going to be the Mets’ fourth outfielder?
Never mind that the Mets don’t have a starting three in place — that’s beside the point. Or is it?
With pitchers and catchers reporting to Port St. Lucie 55 days from now, let’s take a look at the Mets’ current “outfield situation.”
Mike Baxter – can play all three positions capably, probably best suited to the corners.
Collin Cowgill – basically, a righthanded-hitting version of Baxter, with a bit more speed.
Lucas Duda – either the next Adam Dunn or the next Adam Hyzdu. He’s a liability in either corner, and will need to hit more like Dunn to justify having him stand in the outfield.
Jordany Valdespin – if only ‘spin performed as well as he thinks he is, the Mets would have a superstar. I’ve seen his raw skills, but don’t see anything from his minor league stats to suggest he can hit enough to be something other than a second baseman or utilityman.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – One of my favorite Mets of the past few years was Jeremy Reed. Captain Kirk reminds me quite a bit of Reed, except he strikes out three times as often. That’s unfortunate. Center field is the only place Nieuwenhuis makes sense, as his offense isn’t enough for a corner.
Matt Den Dekker – Den Dekker is essentially Nieuwenhuis, but might strike out even more often.
Corner outfielder Cesar Puello and Juan Lagares are on the Mets’ 40-man roster, but are likely too raw to compete for a big-league role — but hey, you never know.
It’s possible the Mets go with full platoon situation that looks like this:
LF – Duda / Valdespin
CF – Nieuwenhuis (or Den Dekker) / Cowgill
RF – Baxter / Cowgill
I know he’s fast, but not sure Cowgill is fast enough to handle both RF and CF simultaneously — but it could, as some of right field could be covered by short-fielder Daniel Murphy.
In all seriousness, take a look at that outfield — Duda, Valdespin, Nieuwenhuis, Cowgill, Baxter — that’s what it looks like right now, without Hairston. If Hairston comes back AND has another career year, that rotation looks a little better. If Hairston signs elsewhere, the best OFs left on the free-agent market are Delmon Young, Austin Kearns, Nyjer Morgan, Scott Podsednik, Endy Chavez, Luke Scott, Aubrey Huff, Juan Rivera, Carlos Lee, Don Kelly, Corey Patterson, Jason Michaels, Joe Mather, Adam Loewen, Willie Harris, Jack Cust, Shelley Duncan, Brett Carroll, Andrew Brown, Jai Miller, and Lou Montanez. There may be some other needles in the haystack of minor-league free agents I’m missing — if so, let me know in the comments. Among that group, I’m not seeing Morgan come in, because it makes more sense to put Nieuwenhuis and Den Dekker out there to see what they can do — and fall back on Cowgill and Baxter if both fail miserably. Sandy Alderson likes home runs so maybe Loewen gets another shot, and/or Luke Scott is brought in. Cust and Duncan have power, but both are similar to Duda defensively. Huff, Young, and Rivera would be decent fits due to their righthandedness and experience, but I’m not seeing any of the three signed by the Mets. Kearns keeps coming to my mind, and would seem to be the type of player who could fit.
What’s your thought? If Hairston signs elsewhere, what will the Mets do? Will they sign a free agent with MLB experience? Will they go with what they have currently? Is there a trade they can make, and if so, who is out there and what will it take to acquire him? Answer in the comments.
That would mean that the Mets would have a roster full of #4 outfielders—not a single #1,#2 or #3.
A different approach to baseball!
Even if the Mets re-sign Hairston, they still have all #4 OFs.
Yes, this new and different approach will be detailed in “Moneyball 2: The Guru Returns”.
But, if Hairston WAS still under contract with the Mets, dealing him for Porcello would be a pretty good deal for both sides. Too bad the Mets don’t have a trading chip similar to Hairston.
Actually, I’ve been thinking that if Murphy was included in a trade for someone decent this off season, a platoon of Spin and Flores at 2B would be pretty interesting to see.
But Lee, at least, is an outstanding hitter. I think he’s one of the most underrated hitters of the last decade.
As for Lee, I think teams assume he’s more interested in his cattle ranches than playing baseball. Or, maybe he’s more interested in tending to his ranches than negotiating for a new contract. My guess is the Rays, Astros, or Rangers quietly sign him right before spring training opens.
That said, I think he should also bring in a good young outfielder in trade. The most interesting options I see out there are Emilio Bonifacio and Eric Young Jr. Both are switch hitters with speed to burn, natural leadoff guys, with good gloves. Since Alderson didn’t expand the Dickey trade to include Boni, he probably isn’t that interested in him. But there was talk last off season, and again during the Summer, that the Mets were interested in Young Jr.
After 3 mediocre seasons with Colorado, where it seemed he couldn’t hit a lick away from the friendly, high altitude confines of Coor’s Field, Young had a breakout season last year. Suddenly he was hitting everywhere and everyone. Who knew? Was the breakout the real deal? If so, Young could be a find. It might not take too much to get him. We would probably have to give up Familia or Mejia, but a shrewd Alderson might just get away with parting with less, Gorski or McHugh plus Aderlin or Lagares, say.
How Hairston plays out will not make or break the offseason, because, as you state, he is a 4th outfielder. I am not buying that Cowgill is the OF bat and Laffey is the 5th starter. These are depth acquisitions. I am no Alderson lover, but despite the blog hate, this dude understands how to build a winner and how to navigate markets. Now, school is out and I am not drinking any koolaid just yet. If he fails to deliver a MLB-prover 10-12 game starter, a legit backend bullpen arm, a legit leadoff hitter, and a RH OF bat, he should be lambasted, and I will be the first to unload on him. But, 55 days is a long time, no matter how pathetic the unsigned list of players appears.
The evidence is that Sandy was GM of a WS champion. That’s one more than Daniels, Friedman, and many other SABR wiz kids. The As were juiced, no doubt, just like the other 30 teams in the league were. Things really haven’t changed since the 1800s. Players are still juiced. The NL MVP in 2011 was juiced. Pitching still wins. A strong player development system still wins. Players still cheat.. Teams in larger markets still have a financial advantage if they spend wisely. Alderson knows this, as do the other 30 GMs. We, me included, just don’t like the pace, which is due to weak ownership finances.
Part of the key now, I think, is being the first one to take advantage of a moron when an opportunity arises. Like, when the Mets gave away Kazmir, any team would have loved to have him, but the Rays just got there first. When the Twins gave away Wilson Ramos, the Nats got there first. I’d love to see Sandy pull a move like that, but so far he’s only been on the wrong side (with Pagan).
The hauls for Beltran and Dickey were good, but they were also exploiting genuine leverage, as opposed to just being smart.
I look forward to that, as I do all your posts, so thank you.
Hairston a “must sign”? Or else the Mets may lose 103 games instead of 99?
I think it’s a gamble to expect Hairston to repeat his career year – unless he’s on PEDs. It’s highly unusual to be a 4th or 5th OF / utilityman for 10 years and suddenly hit 20 HR as a 32-year-old. Andres Torres had a career year at a similar age, and was unable to repeat it.
The guy I’d go after in addition to Hairston is the new Toronto CFer, Bonifacio. Perfect player for us–SHer, solid on defense, gets on base, steals bases, low salary.I’d take a bunch of our non-Wheeler/Harvey kids (Duda, Spin, Kirk, McHugh, Hefner, Den Dekker, Gorski, et al) and tell the Jays to pick any 3 or 4.
Reasonable? Too much? Not enough?
Duda probably has the potential to hit 5th (the highest any Mets outfielder should hit) and as long as the Mets don’t get to use a DH, we’re just gonna have to swallow the fact that he’s not fast, has no arm and sometimes misjudges fly balls.
I also think Kirk can cut down on his SO’s as time goes on (at least a bit) and be a Jeff Francoeur type of offensive Player . He just needs to play regularly, and stay healthy.
So, all the holes in his game could theoretically be improved with coaching and practice. But he’s about to turn 27. So maybe not.
Too bad the Mets wasted 167 games of his OF development at 1B in 2008-2009 (after signing Davis).
Not getting any upgrade, though — that’d be pretty awful.
Then, they should sign Hairston to a 2 year deal. This way they will have both Crisp and Hairston on their roster while the other’s can mature to be major league ready for the near future as everyday players. This would give the Mets an outfield of:
LF- Duda/Hairston
CF- Crisp
RF- Baxter/Cowgill
This also allows Capt Kirk to fill in accordingly depending on team needs, Duda slumps, bat off the bench and/or injuries.
Acquiring Crisp and Hairston should cost the Mets around $11M for next year.
CF- Crisp, (switch hitter)
2nd – Murphy, (Left)
3rd – Wright, (Right)
1st – Davis, (Left)
LF – Haiston/Duda, (Right and Left)
C- Buck/d’Arnoud, (both Right)
RF- Cowgell/Baxter, (Right and Left)
SS- Tejada, (Right)
This linup will allow Murphy to tee off on massive amounts of fast balls in the 2nd hole that he will see because of Crisp’s speed on the basepaths. Plus Murphy hit 40 doubles last year. With Crisp’s speed that’s 40 additional runs right there that the Mets did not have last year….
But there are 2 holes in the lineup that still need to be addressed. 1- Ike Davis does not hit Lefties well at all…. This is a problem since the Mets will face many quality lefties i.e., Gio Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Cole Hammels, Clayton Kershaw etc. and 2- We still do not know how d’Arnoud will handle major league pitching yet?
However, what will it take to get him from Oakland? Will it be worth it, considering his advancing age (he just turned 33)?
Further, though he has speed, his OBP has never been very good — it was only .325 last year. Would the Mets use him in a leadoff role with such a low OBP? Remember this is the same Mets staff that felt Jose Reyes didn’t get on base enough to be a leadoff hitter. Further, would the Mets use Crisp’s speed? Their SABR-minded philosophy seems to eschew the stolen base as too risky.
Again, I agree with you and your well-made points. But I don’t know that the Mets agree.
Sandy will have to figure out which one to send over. Billy Beane is always looking for young cheap arms that he can control for several years, this is something that was taught to him by Sandy himself.
Crisp has only a 1 year contract for 2013 for $7M with a 2014 option and a $1M buyout. This makes him attractive for Sandy’s plan for 2013. Mind you, Crisp has also been part of a Boston Red Sox Championship team along with helping the over achieving A’s win their division last year. This is also an important element for Sandy as well. If Sandy can pull off this trade he will be hoping that some of Crisp’s winning experience rubs off on some of the younger less experienced ball players on the Mets squad.
I agree with your assessment that Crisp had only a .325 OB last year but that is better than anyboby that the Mets are thinking about putting in the lead off spot that is on their current roster right now. I think that Sandy believe’s that Dave Hudgens will be able to work with Crisp to try and help him go deeper into the counts like he did with everyone else on the Mets team last year.
I also beleive the future centerfielder for the Mets will be Brandon Nimmo, but he probably will not arrive to the big club until 2015! Crips allows Sandy a stop gap for a year or two until Nimmo arrives. I do agree with your assessment of the SABR-minded Mets front office and your points are also well taken as to why the Mets might not make the trade. I guess that is why my phone is not ringing and that they are not asking me for my advice..
Don’t feel bad — the Mets aren’t calling me for advice, either!