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October 4, 2007 07-08 Offseason Joe Janish

Glavine Hem-Haw Part Two

We were too quick to jump the gun on the Tom Glavine situation.

Although we were correct in believing that he’d decline the $13M option to pitch for the Mets next season, apparently he’s still undecided about what he’ll be doing in 2008.

According to the Mets.com website:

“No one who’s been around me all season could be surprised,” Glavine said, “because I’ve said all along that I had no idea what I was going to do and that I’d need time to think it over. Five days was never going to be enough time.

“And after what happened Sunday, I’m sure I need more time.”

Glavine said that his decisions — whether to pitch, and whether to pitch for the Mets — probably would come at about the same time he decided last year to return to the Mets, in late November or early December, but no earlier than the end of this month.

“I don’t know. There’s a lot of things to consider,” he said.

Glavine is also unsure if returning to the Braves is a possibility. Atlanta made no effort to re-sign him last winter and apparently still has fiscal restraints despite freeing Andruw Jones and thus making significant money available to spend in other areas.

Glavine said that the Mets want him to return.

“I’ve spoken to Jeff twice and [GM] Omar [Minaya] once,” he said. “I didn’t get the impression they didn’t want me back.”

Personally, I’d be very surprised if he pitched in 2008 as a Met. My hunch is he’ll be a Brave, and pitching, next season.

Hopefully, Omar Minaya and co. will move forward with the idea that Glavine is NOT part of the Mets’ 2008 plans. While he can probably be counted on to make 30+ starts, and throw 200+ innings, he likely won’t be top-three starter material. Best to plan without him, and then if by some stroke of fortune he chooses to pitch in New York next year, he can be the fifth starter. But the Mets can’t do what they did last winter — simply wait around sitting on their hands waiting for Glavine to decide whether he’d come back.

Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.
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  1. Micalpalyn October 4, 2007 at 11:46 am
    There are two things missing from this post.

    1. Over the past few yrs the Mets have gone into the off season with huge pot-holes, this yr there are very few (hence Willie comes back).

    Last yr there were HUGE questions marks about Maine and Ollie, then Pedro. Right now these 3 project as 15 games winners. Mike Pelfrey, humber and Mulvey are viable options, Collazzo, Cullen, muniz also are viable.

    That leaves the bullpen: Every year there are FA. hopefully this year Omar tabs 2-3 that work out better than Sho, Mota and Sele did last yr. (would that be hard?).

    Gomez, Milledge, beltran and Endy are the OF core. Insert Moises, green, Jay Payton, Shannon Stewart or 1-2 veteran OFer.

    every year Omar bring 3or more veterans in to compete for the rotation at #5.

    So to Glavine: I agree he is not coming back. The hype, failures, distractions of #300 loom large in this seasons final grade. While I use the example of Burnett often, he is not a fixation but rather represents a younger fireball pitchers who (when emotionally balanced) is dominant (ala Dave Cone). as a teamate of josh beckett and dontrwelle he dominated in the marlins unexpected WS. he has the aura of a pitcher who (if healthy) can team with Ollie, Maine, Pedro to create the most fearsome rotation in the NL, registering double digits strikeouts on back to back nights consistently.

    I think glavine in the Nats line up is very possible.

  2. joe October 4, 2007 at 12:19 pm
    I’ve been hearing squeaks about Glavine with the Nats too but not buying it. If he wants money, he’ll stay with the Mets and the slightly overvalued $13M. If he wants happiness he’ll go back to Atlanta and be with his chums. Both teams also offer postseason hopes. What do the Nats offer?

    I’m with you on Burnett, and wouldn’t be surprised to see it get done. The Jays have already publicly admitted they wouldn’t have done that deal again, and would be happy to unleash him. He’d do fine back in the NL.

    Finding bullpen arms through free agency is going to be tougher than you think this year. But that’s for the upcoming post …

  3. julie October 4, 2007 at 2:44 pm
    Glavine wanted to be and wants to be a Brave. Met fans covet the players who kill us…or any Brave from the era where the Braves always killed us. Don’t you get the feeling Glavine would pitch for the Braves even if they paid him $300,000.

    BTW, Joe, thanks for this fantastic blog. I don’t know if you were writing last winter but I certainly hope we’re discussing the Mets
    all this winter. I appreciate all the hard work you do to put up and maintain my favorite blog, thank you.

  4. Micalpalyn October 4, 2007 at 2:54 pm
    glavine to Nats: Is feasible as his veteran presence relationship, lack of pressure proximity to Atl bode well for a farewell tour.

    13M makes little sense for glavine. Consider Burnett gets around $10M. My crush on burnett has more to do with him being traded away for al Leiter, only to come BACK to the Mets (possibly) and make a difference.

  5. joe October 4, 2007 at 2:57 pm
    Julie, I think you’re right … I imagine Glavine will take a “hometown discount” and return to Atlanta. Which really stinks, because I bet he’d be willing to take half what the Mets are offering (of course, the MLBPA might have an issue with that).

    Yes, I wrote all last winter (was anyone reading? another question entirely) and intend to do the same this offseason.

    Thanks again for the kind words … it keeps me going. Hope to keep you entertained through this long cold winter!

  6. sincekindergarten October 4, 2007 at 4:01 pm
    Joe, the thing is, I think that Glavine goes either to the new park in Washington or he stays at Shea. I’m not sure that Schuerholz essentially “owns up to a mistake” and takes Glavine back, or even that the new ownership of Atlanta wants him. I think I said to you, at one point, that the effect that Glavine had on John Maine was pretty big. Also, I seem to remember some guy that only needs to go by one name–“Pedro,” I think–said that he wants to become “the right-handed Tom Glavine.” So, one could infer that, from this, at least the pitching staff wants Glavine back. Considering the effect that Pedro has on the rest of the team, I’d say that the team wants him back, too.

    I’d also say that the team knows a heluva lot more about Glavine and his heart (for lack of a better word) than we do. As much as the last Sunday hurt us, think about this–do you really think that Glavine wants to be remembered that way? He’s got an ego, too. I would think that he does not want to be remembered that way–anywhere he might be.

  7. Micalpalyn October 4, 2007 at 5:20 pm
    I have no doubt he can be productive…BUT this team cut bait on Piazza and Floyd and I dont seen 2008 glavine as a top starter.
  8. Micalpalyn October 4, 2007 at 5:47 pm
    AND as I look at the FA list…..I see Bartolo Colon and smile that there are possibilities.
  9. joe October 4, 2007 at 5:52 pm
    Obviously we can only guess as to what’s going on in Glavine’s mind. My guess, five years ago, was that Glavine never wanted to leave Atlanta — he had a pipe dream that the Braves would pony up the dough and not let him run away to New York. I also thought he was ready to go to Atlanta last year, if they found salary room. And I think that he’ll jump to Atlanta now, if they make him an offer that won’t tick off the MLBPA.

    But what I think doesn’t mean much.

    As for the Mets, of course they want him back. Where else are you going to get 30 starts and 200 innings, and not have to shell out a 3-5 year commitment to a schmuck like Jason Marquis or Jeff Suppan? And have the added bonus of a second pitching coach, fantastic team player, and all-around fine ballplayer?

    In the end, does it matter where he goes or what he does next? Even if he comes back to the Mets, and they win the WS in 2008, that start won’t ever be forgotten. It’s there, it’s done — the final topping to the worst collapse in history. For the next fifty years, the story of the collapse will end with, ” … and ironically, it was Hall of Famer Tom Glavine, who had previously won his 300th game, who blew the game by giving up seven runs in only one-third of an inning …”

    The Mets — management and team — will be happy to take him back for another year. But if Atlanta calls, I don’t see it happening.

    But, I’ve been wrong before …

  10. joe October 4, 2007 at 6:07 pm
    Mic — I agree Colon is definitely on Omar’s radar and I’d like to see him in NY. That’s part of tomorrow’s post.
  11. Coop October 4, 2007 at 6:20 pm
    I could see AJ Burnett being a Met. That would be pretty cool. He might be easy. Think Toronto would want Carlos Delgado back? LOL
  12. joe October 4, 2007 at 6:49 pm
    Heck, i’ll give Toronto both Delgado AND Green back, if they’ll give Burnett back to us! 🙂
  13. isuzudude October 4, 2007 at 6:56 pm
    You’ve got to be kidding me with some of this stuff.

    First of all, to hell with Tom Glavine. All the heart I need to see was his comments not 2 hours after his awe-inspiring final start of the season. Saying something to the effect of, “it’s not so bad. worse things could happen. i’m not that torn up about it.” Yeah, ok, so he wants to save some face, but come on. The biggest start of his life in a Mets uniform and all he can come up with is one out? That’s pathetic. I don’t care if he’s the nicest guy in the world and all the players like him. He stunk out loud in the biggest game of the season, as well as in all of his final 3 starts of the year, and cannot be trusted as a “viable” option or a “big-game” starter anymore. Don’t even give him the satisfaction of believing for a second he’s welcome back in NY. Go to Atlanta, be with your family, go 8-14 with a 5.25 ERA, and retire.

    Glavine’s also not going to the Nationals. If ending a career giving up 7 runs in the 1st inning to the Marlins is bad, then spending your final season as a National is catastrophic. Geography lesson: DC is closer to NY than Atlanta, so he’s not really getting that much closer to home to make the move worth it.

    Also, the only way I’d like to see Colon in NY in 2008 is as a member of the Yankees. Give me a break, guys. He’s so untrustworthy the Angels left him off their postseason roster. He also hasn’t thrown over 100 innings in a season since 2005. His ERA has been over 5 the last 2 years, and that’s when he’s been healthy, which hasn’t been all that often. Yet, he’s still going to command at least $5-mil a year simply because of his namesake. What in the world makes him so enticing to acquire? If Gagne is automatically discounted as reliable because of his recent arm issues, than so should Colon. If he’s a Met next season, I’m renouncing.

  14. Micalpalyn October 5, 2007 at 11:19 am
    isu: but the taxi cab ride to the airport might be less painfull.
  15. joe October 5, 2007 at 11:56 am
    re: cab ride – LOL!

    isuzudude, why don’t you open up and write what you REALLY think? if you hold it all in it’s just going to ruin your lunch.

    🙂

    Strangely, I’ve always liked Colon, despite his ever-expanding waistline — can’t really explain it.

    But more than he being so enticing, is the “Omar Factor”. Isn’t he a typical Omar target? What with him being a guy Omar acquired while with the Expos, being Latino, and having a marquee name?

    Though, Omar didn’t sign Sammy Sosa (yet).