Joe Janish began MetsToday in 2005 to provide the unique perspective of a high-level player and coach -- he earned NCAA D-1 All-American honors as a catcher and coached several players who went on to play pro ball. As a result his posts often include mechanical evaluations, scout-like analysis, and opinions that go beyond the numbers. Follow Joe's baseball tips on Twitter at @onbaseball and at the On Baseball Google Plus page.

Dan B April 1, 2013 at 8:44 am

wright walks: 100, murphy errors: 16, first outfielder off of 25 man roster: kirk, first outfielder DFA’d: Byrd, date Chris Young starts his first Met game of the year: May 28, Met wins: 71
Joe Janish April 1, 2013 at 9:13 am

Good ones, Dan.

I can’t decide whether the flip-flop the d’Arnaud and Wheeler dates. On the one hand, Wheeler is more desperately needed RIGHT NOW, so one would think he’d be up first. On the other hand, if they’re not going to promote him right now, when he’s desperately needed, then what’s the difference between waiting until June 15 or August 1 or September 1?

And if Buck is hitting .280 with 8 HR by June, maybe d’Arnaud stays down.

One thing seems certain to me — they won’t be promoted at the same time, because it would be too obvious that the motivation was the arbitration clock / super two, and MLBPA would go nuts.
- Izzy April 1, 2013 at 9:37 am
  
  They’ll bring them up the same day telling us the same line they used last year when they brought up Harvey and his minor league catcher. “They know each other. We don’t want to mess with their chemistry”. And the date will be whenever they save a buck on arbitration. By the way see the fish are starting a 20 year old pitcher on the roster rahter than wait for the arb date. The RedSox and Twins are doing the same with their top prospects. Not everyone plays the who cares about winning game.
  - Joe Janish April 1, 2013 at 11:33 am
    
    Yeah but with Harvey his catcher was a journeyman and not someone whose clock they were stopping. I don’t think the batterymate thing is going to fly with MLBPA if they’re promoted suspiciously close to June 15.
Dan B April 1, 2013 at 9:55 am

Wright’s year will center on whether he takes those 2-1 sliders and gets 100 walks or swings out of desperation and gets 200 Ks. If Buck is batting .280/8 hr in June, he is traded. No way they keep his salary around longer then needed. Izzy, what those teams have figured out that it is cheaper to start the arbitration clock early with a quality player then keep them down and pay a veteran $5 million/year to hold the spot. In baseball, revenue wins games.
- DaveSchneck April 1, 2013 at 11:27 am
  
  Dan,
  Yep, our FO is just holding out for Santana and Jay Bay to be off the books, for that big spending spree this coming winter. Someone needs to send Alderson a memo and let him know that virtually all the premium players approaching free agency are being RETAINED by their teams, regardless of when the arb clock starts. This past winter was the time to find one quality OF, not next winter, when only leftovers will be available. Our GM better have a winning plan for obtaining Stanton or a Stanton-like player. Given his recent defeats in the trade market (and the FA market for that matter), it is not likely. Anyhow, I hope I’m wrong, and LGM!
DaveSchneck April 1, 2013 at 10:09 am

Joe,
I will be optimistic and say over on your 69 wins, but too optimistic and say under on Dan B’s 71 wins. Actually, with this roster, I think 70 win is optimistic. Regarding your other prognostications, I say the Dude will be over, Lyon will not even get 9 save opportunities, Murph will be over on HRs and avg., Tejada will be under .320 OBP, Marcum will be under 14 starts, DW will be under 25 HRs, Ike will be over 27 HR, Niese will be under 13 W, Byrd will not test positive again but fade by mid-season, and Mets will announce total attendance for 2013 over 2 million, but reality will be under 1.5 million.
- Joe Janish April 1, 2013 at 11:35 am
  
  Good ones.
  
  Total attendance! How did I forget that?
Zach April 1, 2013 at 1:10 pm

taking under on niese and harvey…
Timo April 1, 2013 at 2:46 pm

Homeruns by David Wright: 25 — Under

Homeruns by Ike Davis: 27 — OVER

Homeruns by Lucas Duda: 18 — OVER

Wins by Jonathon Niese: 13 — Under

Wins by Matt Harvey: 12 — OVER

Saves by Bobby Parnell: 17 — UNDER

Blown saves by Bobby Parnell: 6 — OVER

Saves by Brandon Lyon: 9 — OVER

Ruben Tejada OBP: .320 — just under. He will hit over 300

Daniel Murphy batting average: .287 — Under

Home runs by Daniel Murphy: 9 — Under. Still no power

Mets games played before Marlon Byrd fails PEDs test: 45 — LOL, why is he on our team.

Starts by Shaun Marcum: 14 — Under. Injuries all year. Too bad, becasue we could have traded him for an outfielder.

Collin Cowgill‘s batting average vs. RHPs: .230 — and LHP — Under.

Travis d’Arnaud callup date: June 15 — SAME TIME AS WHEELER

Zack Wheeler callup date: July 1 — SAME TIME AS TRAVIS

Mets wins: 69 — OVER (barely)…. 73

I’m going to enjoy my $1 Stubhub tickets this year to watch our futures team. They should bring back those horrible futures jerseys they had in the 90’s. Classic!
Joe April 1, 2013 at 4:46 pm

Who else is going to get saves?

Matt Harvey had 3 wins last season. If he gets 12, that basically handles 1/2 of Dickey’s wins.

Horrible about Santana, but the guy got six wins. I think Hefner will get more than six wins. I think he can manage to go more than 6-9.

Marcum + company will manage to do “as much” as Chris Young + company.

The idea is Niese will get about the same as last year. So, that leaves a fifth spot. Gee will I predict not be out 1/2 the year. Zack Wheeler will also compensate some for the loss of Dickey. Dickey himself wouldn’t have won 20 games. Net gain: a top catching prospect. Net loss: a great guy, reliable pitcher but not sure that many wins at all. That is even if he didn’t get injured.

Those numbers overall seem fair — batting average, home runs, I mean, and those aren’t that bad HR numbers. I think there will be more than 26 saves. I think the Mets will get about the number of wins they got last season. Over 70. I’ll say 75 +/- 5.
- Joe April 1, 2013 at 5:02 pm
  
  Hefner won three last year. If he stays in the rotation, which will be the case unless both Marcum and Wheeler is there, he should manage to win 7-10 or so.
  - Joe Janish April 1, 2013 at 6:19 pm
    
    Well, state your “over/under” for Hefner then — and take into account he may or may not be in the rotation all year. Is it 8?
- Joe Janish April 1, 2013 at 6:18 pm
  
  How many more saves are there going to be? There were only 36 last year (there were 43 in ’11, 36 in ’10, 39 in ’09, for comparison). My over/unders account for 26. If you go with the over on Parnell (or Lyon) then you’re assuming one or the other is going to be successful (and not get injured), and the Mets are going to be successful, and/or most wins are going to be within 3 runs. You’re also assuming no one else in the bullpen gets a save. Last year, five different guys had at least one save; in ’11, there were seven. Who knows, maybe Francisco comes back and picks up a few (though I doubt he returns).
  - argonbunnies April 2, 2013 at 2:12 am
    
    I feel like there have been plenty of 35+ save guys on sub-.500 teams. Especially teams in low-scoring environments — pitcher’s park (yes), team pitches better than it hits (probably), down year for offense (well it sure ain’t 1994-2009).
    
    Just in 2011 in the NL:
    2011 Bell saved 43 of the Padres 71 wins
    2011 Hanrahan 40 of 72
    2011 Storen 43 of 80
    2011 Nunez 36 of 72
    2011 Cordero 37 of 79
    - Joe Janish April 2, 2013 at 9:07 am
      
      argonbunnies, yes, there have been plenty of closers on bad teams with high save totals. However in 2013, a) I don’t see the Mets having a high number of save opportunities and b) I don’t see any one person in the 2013 Mets bullpen stepping up and being “the guy” from game 1 through 162.
      
      I pegged Parnell’s over/under at 17 for a few different reasons. First, despite all the wonderful talk from GKR and the pundits about Parnell finally “getting it” and “the light going on,” I’m still not convinced he’s really going to turn into a lights-out closer the way Bell, Hanrahan, and other “late bloomers” did. If he stays with the Mets all year, I believe he’s going to have the closer job, lose it, and get it back, and wind up with somewhere close to, but under, 20 saves when it’s all said and done.
      
      Which brings me to a related point: if somehow Parnell DOES turn out to be another Hanrahan, it’s going to happen right away, and be a fast and furious development — he’ll have 15 or so saves before the All-Star break. In which case, does it make sense hold on to a late-blooming, soon-to-be-29-year-old closer on a bad, rebuilding team? Or does it make more sense to strike while the iron is hot, and trade that kind of an asset for, say, an outfield prospect at the deadline? If, come July, the Mets are bad but Parnell is good, and, say, the Giants need a reliever really badly, and they’re willing to give up, say, Gary Brown — isn’t it a no-brainer?
    - argonbunnies April 2, 2013 at 3:09 pm
      
      It’s true, moving a 29-year-old closer for a future piece would be smart if it were doable… but that doesn’t happen anymore. Name the last reliever to be traded mid-season for anything remotely relevant.
      
      There’s so little being offered that you see the out-of-contention Rockies and Padres holding onto Betancourt and Street at their peak value.
      
      I think MLB is still feeling the scars of Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon. The Red Sox have been the main exception, and their deals for Bailey and Melancon aren’t filling anyone else with confidence.
    - Joe Janish April 2, 2013 at 4:49 pm
      
      The Reds gave up a couple of decent prospects for Broxton last year. I think it depends on how desperate a team is and what they have to offer. I can see the Giants (and several clubs, actually) suffering an injury loss in their ‘pen, and though Brown might not be available, they have a ton of young arms for trading chips. If I’m a GM, I’d be looking at AOTCM (Anyone Other Than Carlos Marmol) to boost my bullpen.
      
      Well, we’ll see …
    - argonbunnies April 3, 2013 at 2:50 am
      
      Broxton returned the Reds’ #12 and #27 prospects (as per Baseball America). I guess that’s not nothing, but man, I’d probably rather keep Parnell.
Connor O'Brien April 1, 2013 at 9:30 pm

Homeruns by David Wright: 25 UNDER
Homeruns by Ike Davis: 27 OVER
Homeruns by Lucas Duda: 18 OVER
Wins by Jonathon Niese: 13 (could be 5 could be 20)
Wins by Matt Harvey: 12 (could be 5 could be 20)
Saves by Bobby Parnell: 17 OVER
Blown saves by Bobby Parnell: 6 UNDER
Saves by Brandon Lyon: 9 UNDER
Ruben Tejada OBP: .320 OVER
Daniel Murphy batting average: .287 OVER
Home runs by Daniel Murphy: 9 UNDER
Mets games played before Marlon Byrd fails PEDs test: 45 OVER
Starts by Shaun Marcum: 14 OVER
Collin Cowgill‘s batting average vs. RHPs: .230 OVER
Travis d’Arnaud callup date: June 15 OVER (~ June 20 the Super Two deadline)
Zack Wheeler callup date: July 1 UNDER (~ June 20 the Super Two deadline)
Mets wins: 69 OVER (76)
argonbunnies April 2, 2013 at 1:57 am

I’ll take the over on Murph’s average, Parnell’s saves, and the Mets’ wins.

70 wins and a .290 avg would surprise me less than 69 and .287. If the over/under was set at 73 wins and .295, it’d be a tougher call.

As for Parnell, I don’t see him suddenly finding ice water in his veins, but I see him getting the job done often enough that none of our other guys dethrone him. I bet he closes all year, which pretty much guarantees 30 saves.

I’ll take the under on Wright’s HRs, though only by a few.

I’m not seeing any other clear unders (except Lyon’s saves). Maybe Joe’s even more pessimistic than I am. Though it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if the team failed to support Niese and Harvey enough for 13 and 12 wins.

Duda’s the biggest risk on the list, for me. I think he either hits 25+ HRs, or winds up demoted (most likely to the bench) and finishes with 10.
- Joe Janish April 2, 2013 at 9:10 am
  
  Pessimistic or realistic?
  
  😉
TexasGusCC April 2, 2013 at 3:03 am

Homeruns by David Wright: 25 — Under
Homeruns by Ike Davis: 27 — Under
Homeruns by Lucas Duda: 18 — Under
Wins by Jonathon Niese: 13 — Push
Wins by Matt Harvey: 12 — Push
Saves by Bobby Parnell: 17 — Over
Blown saves by Bobby Parnell: 6 — Under
Saves by Brandon Lyon: 9 — Under
Ruben Tejada OBP: .320 — Over
Daniel Murphy batting average: .287 — Over
Home runs by Daniel Murphy: 9 — Over (Contract year!)
Mets games played before Marlon Byrd fails PEDs test: 45 — Over
Starts by Shaun Marcum: 14 — Under
Collin Cowgill‘s batting average vs. RHPs: .230 — and LHP — Over
Travis d’Arnaud callup date: June 15 — Sooner
Zack Wheeler callup date: July 1 — Later
Mets wins: 69 — 76 and Collins is replaced by July 20th.
Steven April 2, 2013 at 1:22 pm

Duds is actually the key for most of the stats. I am going out on a limb and saying 29 for year, in which case he is a league power threat and rest of lineup improves and 77 wins

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